牛津经济研究院：COVID-19对美国旅游经济的影响（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、The Impact of COVID-19 on the United States Travel Economy April 15, 2020 2020 Analysis Key Findings Travel Industry Losses A decline of 45% for the entire year is expected. This includes an 81% drop in revenue over the next two months and continued losses over the rest of the year reaching $519 bil

2、lion. GDP Losses Travel industry losses will result in a cumulative GDP impact of $651 billion in 2020. We project the US economy to enter a protracted recession based on the expected downturn in travel alone. The recession is likely to last at least two quarters with the lowest point in the second

3、quarter of 2020. Tax Losses A decline of $80 billion in taxes will be realized as a result of travel declines in 2020. Employment Losses The US economy is projected to lose 8.0 million jobs by the end of April as a result of travel declines in 2020. The unemployment rate of 4.4% in March will rise s

4、ubstantially in the coming months. Travel-related employment losses alone will push the unemployment rate up to 8.4% by the end of April. “FLATTENING THE CURVE” OF THE TRAVEL DOWNTURN A scenario model was run to assess the potential gains of a more tempered downturn beginning in June. The mitigated

5、downturn scenario assumes a variety of efforts to lessen the severity of declines in travel beginning in June. These include opening of travel businesses on a region-by-region basis, enhanced traveler safety measures, and a robust array of marketing campaigns to encourage travel among low risk US re

6、sidents. These mitigating efforts hold the potential to “flatten the curve” of losses, resulting in a cumulative decline of $401 billion instead of $519 billion and a net gain of $117 billion. By mitigating travel losses in the second half of 2020, the US economy could gain close to $150 billion in