1、Getting there by 2050 will require trillions of dollars in coordinated investments.By Jim Harris,Jrmie Danicourt,Adam Papania,and Austin KimWill Plans to Decarbonize the Aviation Industry Fly?Copyright 2022 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.1Will Plans to Decarbonize the Aviation Industry Fly?At

2、a Glance Improving fuel-burn efficiency is the most effective approach to reducing emissions in the coming decade.Bain research shows that a cumulative investment of$1.3 trillion in sustainable fuel production would satisfy only about 20%of forecast 2050 aviation fuel demand.Battery-electric propuls

3、ion is the clear winner in system efficiency,making it the optimal solution to decarbonize aviation in the long run,well after 2050.Hydrogen is unlikely to offset a large portion of aviation emissions by 2050 given the high cost of production,supply challenges,and operator economics.To make flying s

4、ustainable,airline associations and a growing number of governments have pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.It is a moonshot challenge.To decarbonize commercial aviation in that time frame,the industry will need to dramatically accelerate fleet renewals with more efficient aircraft

5、 and invest in new propulsion technologies.But each of the three main technologies to lower emissionssustainable aviation fuel(SAF),hydrogen,and full-electric propulsionfaces big obstacles.Without major scientific breakthroughs,getting to net-zero emissions will take longer and require trade-offs,pa

6、rticularly if air traffic continues to grow.Our research shows that there is no clear solution for decarbonizing the bulk of commercial aviation by 2050,even assuming major technology advances and cost reduction.SAF,the most promising option,is limited in quantity and expected to remain expensive,go