1、M UpdateOnline Dating|North America4Q Preview:Tinder Revenue Cut Likely,but Green Shoots AppearingAfter a rebuilding year in 25,we think online dating could finally be set up for a user growth rebound in 26.Project Aurora is showing encouraging green shoots,although a likely FY26 Tinder revenue guid

2、ance cut could overshadow on the quarter.Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCNathan FeatherEquity Analyst Nathan.F +1 212 761-9812 Brian Nowak,CFAEquity Analyst Brian.N +1 212 761-3365 Nishant R Chintala,CFAResearch Associate Nishant.C +1 212 761-0800 InternetNorth AmericaIndustry ViewAttractiveIndustry Outlook:20

3、25 Rebuilding Could Set Up For User Growth to(Finally)Rebound in 2026:From a KPI perspective,2025 was a relatively rough year for online dating with continued user struggles and decelerating top-line growth.Our 3P data doesnt indicate any meaningful rebound in 4Q,with Tinder/Bumble US DAUs decreasin

4、g-9%/-17%y/y.While these trends arent ideal,we do believe 2025 was a crucial rebuilding year necessary for the swipe apps to see sustained improvement:product velocity increased,brands started prioritizing free users&were willing to trade revenue for an improved experience,and tests of non-Swipe for

5、mats(powered by GenAI matchmaking)began.These investments in 2025 help set up 2026 with material,product-led catalysts including major product updates at Tinder(watch for the Spring product event)and Bumble(watch for Date 2.0 mid-year).While we still need evidence before becoming more constructive o

6、n the space,we believe 2026 may finally be the year where user growth accelerates at Tinder and Bumble.MTCH 4Q Earnings Set-Up:How Big Will the Tinder Guidance Cut Be?With Tinder trading off revenue for user growth(a$14M headwind in 4Q),the key debate on MTCH is the Tinder FY26 revenue guide.There i