1、 After a very challenging 2022,we expect China GDP growth to accelerate from n3.0%this year to 4.5%next year on the back of Chinas potential exit from its zero-Covid policy,which we assume will start shortly after the“Two Sessions”in March.Chinas reopening would imply a strong consumption rebound,fi

2、rming core inflation,and gradually normalizing cyclical policies in 2023.Beneath the full-year growth acceleration,the Chinese economy is likely to ndisplay a distinct“two halves”next year.Our growth forecast is notably below consensus in H1 but significantly above in H2.This is due to our belief th

3、at the initial stage of Chinas reopening may be negative to growth,with Covid cases surging and population mobility temporarily declining,similar to the reopening experience of several other East Asian economies.The delayed reopening boost suggests that policy may need to stay naccommodative in the

4、first half of 2023 before normalizing in the second half once consumption and services rebound sharply.It also leads us to project above-consensus GDP growth for 2024(5.3%)as the reopening tailwind lingers through 2024H1.In the outer years of our forecast horizon(2025-2027),however,we expect growth

5、to return to a trend of around 4%,as we expect structural headwinds to reduce Chinas potential growth rate meaningfully.By expenditure categories,Chinese exports are poised to slow on weakening nexternal demand,while growth drivers rotate from investment to consumption on reopening.Within consumptio

6、n,sectors that have been most constrained by Covid such as travel and entertainment have the most room to recover.Within investment,we expect infrastructure investment to decelerate significantly,followed by manufacturing investment next year.Property investment should continue to contract,although