1、Winter Outlook Report6 October 2022Helping to inform the electricity industry and prepare for the winter aheadSince last winter the world has fundamentally changed with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.With this backdrop the ESO presents the Winter Outlook.Building on the Early View of Winter,this

2、document presents a more detailed view focusing on the upcoming winter in Great Britain.This Winter Outlook covers the period from 31 October 2022 to 31 March 2023.The data freeze date for this outlook was 22 September 2022.This Winter Outlook is developed in the context of unprecedented turmoil and

3、 volatility in energy markets in Europe and beyond and,as we stated earlier in the year,shortfalls of gas in continental Europe could have a range of knock-on impacts in Britain.Therefore,in this Winter Outlook in addition to our Base Case,we also set out scenarios to illustrate the implications sho

4、uld some of those risks to security of energy supplies materialise.Our central view remains,as set out in the Base Case,that there will be adequate margins(3.7GW/6.3%)through the winter to ensure Great Britain remains within the reliability standard1,although we expect there to be days where we will

5、 need to utilise many of the tools in our operational toolkit,including use of system notices2.Given the scale of uncertainty and risks associated with the current geopolitical situation we have developed a range of new tools,including:Publishing an early view of winter to help the market understand

6、 risks contracting to retain approximately 2GW of coal fired generation that would otherwise have closed and introducing an innovative Demand Flexibility Service to incentivise customers to reduce consumption at periods when margins are tight.Notwithstanding the mitigation measures noted above,it is