1、Pension Systems Are CrackingHeres How to Fix ThemJanuary 2026 By Sam Karita,Tomoki Isogai,Csaba Bakos,and Mark WisemanPENSION SYSTEMS ARE CRACKINGHERES HOW TO FIX THEM 2BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP|BCG HENDERSON INSTITUTEDemographics are rewriting the balance sheets of developed countries around the worl

2、dand pushing traditional pension systems beyond their limits.The pressure is particularly evident today in OECD countries.For these nations,the average ratio of older citizens(65 and older)to younger citizens(ages 15 to 64)will increase on average 2.5 times by 2050 from 2000 levels(see Exhibit 1).Th

3、at translates into a growing economic burden on the working-age population,as those younger workers will need to contribute an increasing share of their income to fund pensions.Total pension expenditures as a share of combined GDP for 31 of the 38 OECD nations is projected to hit 10.3%by 2060,up fro

4、m an average of 8.9%for the period 2020 through 2023.1Some countries have taken action to confront the challenge.Sweden,Denmark,and the UK,among others,have reformed their pensions systems over the last 20 years and put them on a firmer financial footing.Still,many of the changes have come with trad

5、e-offs,such as benefit reductions that disproportionately impact low-income groups.Top 5 OECD countries with highest projected ratio of people aged 65 and over versus those 1564 years old,plus US19.69.925.627.024.125.418.348.475.673.170.468.865.137.9GreeceOECDUSSouth KoreaJapanItalySpain+2.5x+7.7x+2

6、.9x+2.6x+2.9x+2.6x+2.1x20002050Sources:United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division(2024);BCG Henderson Institute analysis.Ratio of Older Citizens Versus Younger Workers in OECD Countries Will Surge in the Decades Ahead EXHIBIT 1EXHIBIT 1Ratio of Older Citizens Versus