4-Chris Coffey-Managing Model Uncertainty in Hydrogen Risk Assessment： Best Practices for Process Safety Management.pdf

1、GChris CManaging Model Uncertainty in Hydrogen Risk Assessment:Best Practices for Process Safety Management氢气后果预测和风险评估的模型不确定性评估安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园GFor a safer worldO Ou ut tl li in ne e 大大纲纲Uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment:background定量风险评估中的不确定性

2、：背景Model uncertainty:a methodology based on FLACS validation data模型不确定性：基于 FLACS 验证数据的方法 Application examples应用示例Summary and discussion总结与讨论安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园GFor a safer worldU Un nc ce er rt ta ai in nt ty y in quantitative risk assessment(QRA)定量风险评估（QR

3、A）的不确定性“uncertainties constitute a main component of risk,and the resulting risk descriptions highlight uncertainties beyond the computed probabilities”“不确定性是风险的主要组成部分，由此产生的风险描述强调了计算概率之外的不确定性”Identification of assumptions 识别假设Definition of uncertainty factors 不确定因素的定义Sensitivity of risk to changes i

4、n the factors 风险对因素变化的敏感性2012化工厂扩展风险评估方法应用于管道破裂相关研究安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园GFor a safer worldU Un nc ce er rt ta ai in nt ty y in quantitative risk assessment(QRA)定量风险评估（QRA）的不确定性“QRA is plagued by mistrust due in part because estimated uncertainties are genera

5、lly not included.”“定量风险评估不被信任，主要是因为预估的不确定性通常不包括在内。”benchmark risk analysis projects基准风险分析项目Scenarios 场景Failure rates 故障率Models 模型risk figures differing up to 4 orders of magnitude风险数字相差高达4 个数量级2017风险评估：它值多少钱？我们应该彻底废除它吗？还是说它能更好地发挥作用？安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园安全环保荟萃园GFor

6、a safer worldU Un nc ce er rt ta ai in nt ty y in quantitative risk assessment(QRA)定量风险评估（QRA）的不确定性A matter of credibility of risk assessment 风险评估的可信度问题Two fundamental steps in QRA:QRA 的两个基本步骤oFrequency and characterization of events 事件的频率和特征oCalculation of effects 效果计算Imperfect knowledge and measur