从25年市场历史中汲取的经验教训及预测更新.pdf

1、Learnings from 25 years of Market History and Forecast UpdateVladimir KozlovOctober,20252025 LightCounting|QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Impact of AI on the Ethernet Transceiver Market Two key factors:Investments in AI skyrocketed and Nvidia started to use transceivers instead of AOCs in 2

2、023.Growth in investments continues to exceed our forecast.22025 LightCounting|October 2025Source:Ethernet Optics September 2025QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Annual Spending by ApplicationGrowth in spending of the cloud companies will moderate,but it will return to telecom and enterprise.3

3、2025 LightCounting|October 2025QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Growth in sales of Ethernet TransceiversIt is impossible to predict the timing of slowdowns,but these come once in a while.A more conservative forecast offers a realistic 5-year trajectory for the market.42025 LightCounting|Octob

4、er 2025Source:Ethernet Optics September 2025QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Two scenarios for the forecast52025 LightCounting|October 2025The industry supply chain chain is non-linear.Source:Ethernet Optics September 2025QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Ethernet Transceivers by Speed6

5、2025 LightCounting|October 2025Source:Ethernet Optics September 2025 QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Shipments of 800G and higher speed modules by type72025 LightCounting|October 2025Source:Ethernet Optics September 2025QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Our 2030 View of TRX vs LPO/LRO

6、vs CPO400G/lane should push CPO past pluggable approaches by the end of the forecast period.82025 LightCounting|October 2025Source:Ethernet Optics September 2025QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE|DECEMBER 18,2019Evolution of Optical Interconnects Three major directions92