PLUMMETING SOLAR,WIND,AND BATTERY COSTS CAN ACCELERATE OUR CLEAN ELECTRICITY FUTUREJUNE 2020Global carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5C and avoid catastrophic climate impacts.Most existing studies,however,examine 2050 as the year that deep decarbonization of electric power systems can be achieveda timeline that would also hinder decarbonization of the buildings,industrial,and transportation sectors.In light of recent trends,these studies present overly conservative estimates of decarbonization potential.Plummeting costs for wind and solar energy have dramatically changed the prospects for rapid,cost-effective expansion of renewable energy.At the same time,battery energy storage has become a viable option for cost-effectively integrating high levels of wind and solar generation into electricity grids.This report uses the latest renewable energy and battery cost data to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of achieving 90%clean(carbon-free)electricity in the United States by 2035.Two central cases are simulated using state-of-the-art capacity-expansion and production-cost models:The No New Policy case assumes continuation of current state and federal policies;and the 90%Clean case requires that a 90%clean electricity share is reached by 2035.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2035 THE REPORT|2KEY FINDINGSTable ES-1 shows the reports findings at a glance,and the following discussion expands on these findings.CURRENT GRID(2019)NO NEW POLICY(2035)90%CLEAN(2035)Highly Decarbonized GridDependable Grid Electricity Cost Reductions-Feasible Scale-Up-Highest Number of Jobs Supported-Largest Environmental Savings-STRONG POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO CREATE A 90%CLEAN GRID BY 2035The 90%Clean case assumes strong policies drive 90%clean electricity by 2035.The No New Policy case achieves only 55%clean electricity in 2035(Figure ES-1).A companion report from Energy Innovation identifies institutional,market,and regulatory changes needed to facilitate the rapid transformation to a 90%clean power sector in the United States.TABLE ES-1.U.S.Power System Characteristics by Case Modeled in the Report2035 THE REPORT|3THE 90%CLEAN GRID IS DEPENDABLE WITHOUT COAL PLANTS OR NEW NATURAL GAS PLANTSRetaining existing hydropower and nuclear capacity(after accounting for planned retirements),and much of the existing natural gas capacity combined with new battery storage,is sufficient to meet U.S.electricity demand dependably(i.e.,every hour of the year)with a 90%clean grid in 2035.Under the 90%Clean case,all existing coal plants are retired by 2035,and no new fossil fuel plants are built.During normal periods of generation and demand,wind,solar,and batteries provide 70%of annual generation,while hydropower and nuclear provide 20%.During periods of very high demand and/or very low renewable generation,existing natural gas,hydropower,and nuclear plants combined with battery storage cost-effectively compensate for mismatches between demand and wind/solar generation.Generation from natural gas plants constitutes about 10%of total annual electricity generation,which is about 70%lower than their generation in 2019.ELECTRICITY COSTS FROM THE 90%CLEAN GRID ARE LOWER THAN TODAYS COSTSWholesale electricity costs,which include the cost of generation plus incremental transmission investments,are about 10%lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are today,mainly owing to low renewable energy and battery costs(Figure ES-2).Pervasiveness of low-cost renewable energy and battery storage across the United States requires investment mainly in transmission spurs connecting renewable generation to existing FIGURE ES-1.Generation Mixes for the 90%Clean Case(left)and No New Policy Case(right),20202035500040003000200010000ANNUAL GENERATION|90%CLEANANNUAL GENERATION(TWh/yr)COALGASNUCLEARWINDHYDROOTHERGEOTHERMALBIOPOWERSOLAR500040003000200010000ANNUAL GENERATION(TWh/yr)COALGASNUCLEARWINDHYDROOTHERGEOTHERMALBIOPOWERSOLARANNUAL GENERATION|NO NEW POLICY202O202520302035202O2025203020352035 THE REPORT|4high-capacity transmission lines or load centers.Hence,additional transmission-related costs and siting conflicts are modest.Relying on natural gas for only 10%of generation avoids large investments for infrequently used capacity,helping to avoid major new stranded-asset costs.Retaining natural gas generation averts the need to build excess renewable energy and long-duration storage capacityhelping achieve 90%clean electricity while keeping costs down.While still lower than todays costs,wholesale electricity costs are 12%higher under the 90%Clean case than under the No New Policy case in 2035.However,this comparison does not account for the value of emissions reductions or job creation under the 90%Clean case.80706050403020100202O202520302035202O202520302035$/MWh(2018 REAL)$/MWh(2018 REAL)90%CLEAN W/ENV COSTNO NEW POLICY W/ENV COST80706050403020100NO NEW POLICY W/O ENV COST90%CLEAN W/O ENV COSTTHE 90%CLEAN GRID AVOIDS$1.2 TRILLION IN HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES,INCLUDING 85,000 PREMATURE DEATHS,THROUGH 2050The 90%Clean case nearly eliminates emissions from the U.S.power sector by 2035,resulting in environmental and health benefits largely driven by reduced mortality related to electricity generation(Figure ES-3).Compared with the No New Policy case,the 90%Clean case reduces carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions by 88%by 2035.It also reduces exposure to fine particulate(PM2.5)matter by reducing nitrogen oxide(NOx)and sulfur dioxide(SO2)emissions by 96%and 99%,respectively.1 As a result,the 90%Clean case avoids over$1.2 trillion in health and environmental costs,including 85,000 avoided premature deaths,through 2050.These savings equate roughly to 2 cents/kWh of wholesale 1 Primary PM2.5 emissions reductions are not estimated by the model,resulting in a conservative estimate of reduced PM2.5 exposure.FIGURE ES-2.Wholesale Electricity Costs with(left)and without(right)Environmental Costs,for the 90%Clean and No New Policy Cases2035 THE REPORT|5electricity costs,which makes the 90%Clean case the lowest-net-cost option when environmental and health costs are considered.FIGURE ES-3.Emissions of CO2,SO2,and NOx in the 90%Clean and No New Policy Cases,2020203520001800160014001200100080060040020002020202520302035MILLION TONS/YR90%CLEANNO NEW POLICYCO2 EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR)1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0202020252030203590%CLEANNO NEW POLICYSO2 EMISSIONS(MILLION TONS/YR)MILLION TONS/YR1.21.00.80.60.40.20.02020202520302035NO NEW POLICYNOX EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR)90%CLEANMILLION TONS/YRSCALING-UP RENEWABLES TO ACHIEVE 90%CLEAN ENERGY BY 2035 IS FEASIBLETo achieve the 90%Clean case by 2035,1,100 GW of new wind and solar generation must be built,averaging about 70 GW per year(Figure ES-4).Recent U.S.precedents for natural gas and wind/solar expansion suggest that a renewable energy buildout of this magnitude is challenging but feasible.New renewable resources can be built cost-effectively in all regions of the country.2035 THE REPORT|6FIGURE ES-4.Cumulative New Capacity Additions in the 90%Clean Case,20202035 1400120010008006004002000CUMULATIVE NEW CAPACITY ADDITIONSNEW CAPACITY(GW)Battery Storage Solar Wind202O202520302035THE 90%CLEAN GRID CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ENERGY-SECTOR EMPLOYMENTThe 90%Clean case supports a total of 29 million job-years cumulatively during 20202035.Employment related to the energy sector increases by approximately 8.5 million net job-years,as increased employment from expanding renewable energy and battery storage more than replaces lost employment related to declining fossil fuel generation.The No New Policy case requires one-third fewer jobs,for a total of 20 million job-years over the study period.These jobs include direct,indirect,and induced jobs related to construction,manufacturing,operations and maintenance,and the supply chain.Overall,the 90%Clean case supports over 500,000 more jobs each year compared to the No New Policy case.ACCELERATING THE CLEAN ENERGY FUTUREEstablishing a target year of 2035,rather than the typical 2050 target,helps align expectations for power-sector decarbonization with climate realities while informing the policy dialogue needed to achieve such an ambitious goal.Aiming for 90%clean electricityrather than 100%by 2035 is also important for envisioning rapid,cost-effective decarbonization.By 2035,emerging technologies such as firm,low-carbon power should be mature enough to begin to replace the remaining natural gas generation as the nation accelerates toward 100%,cross-sector decarbonization.Reaching 90%zero-carbon electricity in the United States by 2035 would contribute a 27%reduction in economy-wide carbon emissions from 2010 levels.2035 THE REPORT|7Executive Summary 21.Introduction 122.Methods and Data Summary 133.Key Findings 16 3.1 Strong Policies Are Required to Create a 90%Clean Grid by 2035 16 3.2 The 90%Clean Grid Is Dependable without Coal Plants or New Natural Gas Plants 17 3.3 Electricity Costs from the 90%Clean Grid Are Lower than Todays Costs 22 3.4 Scaling-Up Renewables to Achieve 90%Clean Energy by 2035 Is Feasible 27 3.5 The 90%Clean Grid Can Significantly Increase Energy-Sector Employment 28 3.6 The 90%Clean Grid Avoids$1.2 Trillion in Health and Environmental Damages,Including 85,000 Premature Deaths,Through 2050 304.Caveats and Future Work 34References 36TABLE OF CONENTSFunding was provided by the MacArthur Foundation.NAMES AND AFFILIATIONS OF AUTHORS AND TECHNICAL REVIEW COMMITTEEAmol Phadke,1*Umed Paliwal,1 Nikit Abhyankar,1 Taylor McNair,2 Ben Paulos,3 David Wooley,1*Ric OConnell2*1 Goldman School of Public Policy,University of California Berkeley,2 GridLab,3 PaulosAnalysis.*Corresponding Authors Below are the members of the Technical Review Committee(TRC).The TRC provided input and guidance related to study design and evaluation,but the contents and conclusions of the report,including any errors and omissions,are the sole responsibility of the authors.TRC member affiliations in no way imply that those organizations support or endorse this work in any way.Sonia Aggarwal,Energy InnovationMark Ahlstrom,Energy Systems Integration GroupSteve Beuning,Holy Cross EnergyAaron Bloom,Energy Systems Integration GroupSeverin Borenstein,Haas School of Business,University of California BerkeleyBen Hobbs,Johns Hopkins UniversityAidan Tuohy,Electric Power Research Institute ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe following people provided invaluable technical support,input,and assistance in making this report possible.Phoebe Sweet,Courtney St.John,Chelsea Eakin,Lindsay Hamilton,Climate NexusSilvio Marcacci,Energy InnovationJarett Zuboy,independent contractorBetony Jones,Inclusive EconomicsSimone Cobb,Goldman School of Public Policy,University of California BerkeleyManinder Thind and Julian Marshall,University of Washington Yinong Sun,National Renewable Energy LaboratoryZane Selvans,Catalyst CooperativeWe are thankful to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for making its ReEDS model publicly available,as well as all their scenarios and the Annual Technology Baseline.Appendices,supporting reports,and data visualizations can be found at 2035 THE REPORT|9ABOUT GRIDLABGridLab is an innovative non-profit that provides technical grid expertise to enhance policy decision-making and to ensure a rapid transition to a reliable,cost-effective,and low-carbon future.ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY GOLDMAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICYThe Center for Environmental Public Policy,housed at UC Berkeleys Goldman School of Public Policy,takes an integrated approach to solving environmental problems and supports the creation and implementation of public policies based on exacting analytical standards that carefully define problems and match them with the most impactful solutions.In October 2018,the U.N.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)reported that global carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5C and avoid catastrophic climate impacts(UN IPCC 2018).Most existing studies,however,examine 2050 as the year that deep decarbonization of electric power systems can be achieveda timeline that would also hinder decarbonization of the buildings,industrial,and transportation sectors through electrification.2 These studies offer little hope that climate change impacts can be held to a manageable level in this century.Yet,in light of recent trends,these studieseven those published in the past few yearspresent overly conservative estimates of decarbonization potential.Plummeting costs and cost projections for wind and solar energy have dramatically changed the prospects for rapid,cost-effective decarbonization(Figure 1).At the same time,battery energy storage has become a viable option for cost-effectively integrating high levels of wind and solar generation into electricity grids.605040302010010090807060504030201002010201020202020203020302040204020502050$/MWH(2018 REAL)WIND LCOE,BEST CAPACITY FACTOR|ATB LOW CASESOLAR PV LCOE,BEST CAPACITY FACTOR|ATB LOW CASEATB 2015ATB 2015ATB 2016ATB 2016ATB 2017ATB 2017ATB 2019ATB 2019ATB 2018ATB 20182 Broadly,these studies do not assess near-complete power-sector decarbonization(80carbonization or greater)before 2050.The one study(MacDonald et al.2016)that assesses complete decarbonization of the U.S.power sector by 2030 does not assume a significant role for battery storage,as our report does.Instead,it relies on expansion of the U.S.transmission network,which is technically and economically challenging(Joskow 2004).See Appendix 1 for a brief review of some of these studies.1 INTRODUCTIONFIGURE 1.National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Annual Technology Baseline(ATB)Low-Case Cost Projections Made 20152019 for Years Through 2050Wind(left)and solar photovoltaic(PV,right)levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)projections are shown by the year that each projection was made in the NREL ATB(NREL 2015;2016;2017;2018;2019)using ATB low-case assumptions and best capacity factors.LCOE projections were revised downwards in almost every year during this period.$/MWH(2018 REAL)This report uses the latest renewable energy and battery cost information to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of achieving 90%“clean”electricity in the United States by 2035much more quickly than projected by most recent studies.Generation from any resource that does not produce direct carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions is considered clean in this analysis,including generation from nuclear,hydropower,wind,solar,3 biomass,and fossil fuel plants with carbon capture and storage.Consideration of the accelerated 2035 timeframe helps align expectations for power-sector decarbonization with climate realities while informing the policy dialogue needed to achieve such an ambitious goal.This reports target of 90%clean electricity(rather than 100%)by 2035 is also important for envisioning decarbonization at a pace more rapid than considered in previous studies.Achieving almost-complete power sector decarbonization in 2035 may ultimately increase the speed and cost-effectiveness of pervasive,cross-sector decarbonization.After a brief description of methods and data,the key findings of the 2035 decarbonization report are summarized.The reports appendices provide details of the analyses and results.A companion report from Energy Innovation identifies institutional,market,and regulatory changes needed to facilitate the rapid transformation to a 90%clean power sector in the United States(Energy Innovation 2020).We performed power-sector modeling in consultation with a technical review committee consisting of experts from utilities,universities,and think tanks.We employed state-of-the-art models,including NRELs Regional Energy Deployment System(ReEDS)capacity-expansion model and Energy Exemplars PLEXOS electricity production-cost model,in conjunction with publiclyavailable generation and transmission datasets.Forecasts of renewable energy and battery cost reductions were 3 The terms“solar”and“PV”are used interchangeably in this report,because essentially all the solar deployed in the simulations is PV;the concentrating solar power deployment is negligible.2METHODS AND DATA SUMMARY2035 THE REPORT|12based on NRELs ATB 2019(NREL 2019).4 We used these data and methods to analyze two central cases:No New Policy:Assumes current state and federal policies and forecasted trends in technology costs.5 90%Clean:Requires a national 90%clean electricity share by 2035.We analyzed the sensitivity of the 90%Clean case to periods of extraordinarily low renewable energy generation and/or high demand,to ensure that a system with 90%renewable energy supply meets demand in every hour.To assess system dependability,defined as the ability to meet power demand in every hour of the year,we simulated hourly operation of the U.S.power system over 60,000 hours(each hour in 7 weather years).For each of these hours,we confirmed that electricity demand is met in each of the 134 regional zones(subparts of the U.S.power system represented in the model)while abiding by several technical constraints(such as ramp rates and minimum generation)for more than 15,000 individual generators and 310 transmission lines.Further work is needed to assess issues such as the effect of the 90%Clean case on loss of load probability,system inertia,and alternating-current transmission flows.We also considered three primary sets of future renewable energy and battery storage cost assumptions(Figure 2;see Appendix 2 for in-depth cost analyses):Low-Cost:NREL ATB low-case assumptions,assuming 40%to 50%cost reductions for PV,wind,and storage by 2035(compared with 2020).Base-Cost:modified NREL ATB mid-case assumptions,assuming 2021 costs begin at the ATB low-case assumptions,but post-2021 cost reductions are in line with the ATB mid-case.High-Cost:NREL ATB mid-case assumptions,including assumed 2020 costs that are higher than actual 2020 costs.Appendix 3 details our additional scenario and sensitivity analyses,including a case that seeks to internalize the societal costs of CO2 emissions.We also evaluated the impact of electrification using the high electrification case from the NREL Electrification Futures Study 2018(Mai 2018).4 The cost reductions detailed in this report refer primarily to utility-scale PV,wind,and battery storage.Distributed PV is considered in this analysis,serving as an input to the ReEDS model based on NREL modeling assumptions.In 2035,under the 90%Clean case,there are approximately 60 GW of distributed PV,representing approximately 2%of total energy generation.For detail on the renewable capacity breakdown,see Appendix 3.5 ReEDS considers relevant state and federal policies,such as state Renewable Portfolio Standards,as of early 2019.2035 THE REPORT|13$/MWH(2018 REAL)1009080706050403020100201020152020202520302035$/MWH(2018 REAL)WIND LCOEHISTORICAL PPA PRICE(UNSUBSIDIZED)HIGH-COSTLOW-COSTBASE-COST300250200150100500201020152020202520302035SOLAR LCOEHISTORICAL PPA PRICE(UNSUBSIDIZED)HIGH-COSTLOW-COSTBASE-COSTCAPITAL COST$/KWH(2018 REAL)1400120010008006004002000201020152020202520302035BATTERY STORAGE CAPITAL COSTHISTORICAL CAPITAL COST(UNSUBSIDIZED)HIGH-COSTLOW-COSTBASE-COSTWe tested the robustness of our findings through sensitivity analyses of the key input assumptions used in this report,including sensitivities around technology costs,financing costs,and natural gas prices.We considered three primary sets of future renewable energy and battery storage technology costs(described above),two sets of financing costs,and two sets of natural gas prices.The base case financing costs correspond to the assumptions used in NREL(2019)and are in line with todays financing costs.The high financing costs assume that the cost of capital(real)is twice the cost assumed in the base case.The base case natural gas prices are the same as in the reference case in the U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA)Annual Energy Outlook(EIA 2020a).The low natural gas prices use New York Mercantile Exchange(NYMEX)future prices until 2023,and beyond 2023 the price of natural gas is kept constant at$2.50/MMbtu(nominal),with a floor of$1.50/MMbtu(2018 real).We evaluate all permutations of these assumptions for the No New Policy and 90%Clean cases(24 cases in total).Refer to Appendix 3 for further sensitivity analyses.We used the industry-standard IMPLAN model to estimate the job losses and gains associated with each of our cases.We used ReEDS to estimate emissionsCO2 as well as sulfur dioxide(SO2)and nitrogen oxides(NOx)associated with power generation based on emission factors for each generation technology.We used estimates of the social cost of carbon and damages associated with SO2 and NOx from the literature(as dollars and premature deaths per metric ton of pollutant)to estimate the environmental damages associated with each case.Results and assumptions are discussed below and in Appendix 2.FIGURE 2.Historical and Projected Technology Cost Declines on Which Our Analyses Were BasedFor solar and wind,the historical LCOE was estimated by adjusting historical power-purchase agreement(PPA)prices for subsidies(investment tax credit and production tax credit).PPA price data were obtained from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratorys utility-scale solar(Bolinger et al.2019a,2019b)and wind(Wiser and Bolinger 2019)reports.For four-hour batteries,historical pack costs were based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance data(Goldie-Scot 2019),and balance-of-system cost data were from NREL(2018a).Future cost projections for all three technologies were based on NREL(2019).2035 THE REPORT|14This section highlights the key findings from our analysis.Additional details are provided in the appendices.3.1 STRONG POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO CREATE A 90%CLEAN GRID BY 2035In our 90%Clean case,we require a 90%clean electricity share by 2035;that is,we set the 2035 grid mix to be 90%clean.In this analysis,clean generation refers to resources that produce no direct CO2 emissions,including hydropower,nuclear,wind,PV,and biomass.In the No New Policy case,however,the grid mix is determined by least-cost capacity-expansion modeling based on the current paradigm for electricity-market costs,which does not fully internalize the costs of environmental and health damages from fossil fuel use.As a result,clean generators only supply 55%of the electricity in the No New Policy case in 2035.Figure 3 compares the grid mixes in the two cases.The 2035 grid mix from EIAs Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case is similar(47%clean generation)to the 2035 mix in the No New Policy case(EIA 2020a).3KEY FINDINGSFIGURE 3.Generation Mixes for the 90%Clean Case(left)and No New Policy Case(right),20202035500040003000200010000ANNUAL GENERATION|90%CLEANANNUAL GENERATION(TWh/yr)COALGASNUCLEARWINDHYDROOTHERGEOTHERMALBIOPOWERSOLAR500040003000200010000ANNUAL GENERATION(TWh/yr)COALGASNUCLEARWINDHYDROOTHERGEOTHERMALBIOPOWERSOLARANNUAL GENERATION|NO NEW POLICY202O202520302035202O2025203020352035 THE REPORT|15The 90%Clean case assumes implementation of policies that promote large-scale renewable energy adoption and yield net societal benefits compared with the business-as-usual approach assumed under the No New Policy case.As detailed in Sections 3.3 and 3.6,the nominal electricity cost increases under the 90%Clean case are more than offset by the societal benefits provided by that case.3.2 THE 90%CLEAN GRID IS DEPENDABLE WITHOUT COAL PLANTS OR NEW NATURAL GAS PLANTSGiven the dramatic decline in battery storage prices,we find that significant short-duration storage is cost-effective and plays a critical load in balancing the grid.We estimate that about 600 GWh(150 GW for 4 hours)of storage cost-effectively supports grid operations in the 90%Clean case,representing about 20%of daily electricity demand.6 When renewable energy generation exceeds demand,storage can charge using this otherwise-curtailed electricity and then dispatch electricity during periods when renewable generation falls short of demand.Despite the addition of storage,about 14%of available renewable energy must be curtailed annually.New long-duration storage technologies might reduce curtailment further.To estimate the generation capacity required to meet system demand in every hour,even during periods of low renewable energy generation and/or high demand,we simulate hourly operation of the U.S.power system for more than 60,000 hours(each hour in 7 weather years).For each of these hours,we evaluate and confirm how electricity demand is met in each of the 134 regional zones(subparts of the U.S.power system represented in the model)while abiding by several technical constraints(such as ramp rates and minimum generation)for more than 15,000 individual generators and 310 transmission lines.During the 7 weather years,we find significant variation in wind and solar generation.During the hour of lowest wind and solar generation,total wind and solar generation is 94low rated capacity(about 75 GW of generation from 1,220 GW of capacity)and 80low the yearly average of wind and solar generation.Solar generation drops to zero in nighttime hours,whereas the lowest hourly period of wind generation is about 90low 6 Because of modeling limitations,we only consider a 4-hour storage duration in this analysis.2035 THE REPORT|16average.The decline in wind and solar generation over days and weeks is progressively lower(Figure 4).0 0%HIGHEST DROP IN WIND/SOLAR GENERATION(%OF AVERAGE)WEEKDAY HOUR Wind Solar Wind SolarTo highlight the dependability of a 90%clean electricity grid and estimate natural gas capacity requirements,we identify the period during the 7 weather years when maximum natural gas generation capacity is needed to compensate for the largest gap between clean electricity generation(including battery generation)and load.The maximum natural gas capacity required is about 360 GW on August 1 in one of the weather years(2007)(Figure 5).At 8:00 pm Eastern Time on that day,solar generation declines to less than 10%of installed solar capacity,while wind generation is 18low installed wind capacity,resulting in only about 150 GW of wind and solar production(about 55low the annual average,as indicated in Figures 6 and 7).The total system demand of about 735 GW is met by a combination of other clean resources,such as hydropower and nuclear,approximately 360 GW of natural gas,and 80 GW of battery discharge(Figure 8).FIGURE 4.Maximum Drop in Wind and Solar Output Relative to Average Wind and Solar Generation2035 THE REPORT|17HOURLY GENERATION(GW)8006004002000-20029/JULY30/JULY31/JUL1/AUG2/AUG3/AUG4/AUGNUCLEARBATTERY LOADPUMPED-HYDRO LOADGASHYDROBATTERY DISCHARGEWINDSOLARLOADHOURLY DISPATCH DURING THE MAX GAS GENERATION WEEKFIGURE 5.Hourly U.S.Power-System Dispatch for Extreme Weather Days in the 90%Clean Case in 2035Figure 5 details the dispatch for the period of maximum natural gas generation,one week in late July and early August.Approximately 360 GW of natural gas is dispatched to meet demand on August 1,while renewables contribute significantly less generation than normal.Even when wind and solar generation drops to low levels,existing hydropower,nuclear power,and natural gas capacity,as well as new battery storage,are sufficient to maintain system operations.HOURLY GENERATION(GW)8007006005004003002001000-100123456789101112131415161718192021222324NUCLEARBATTERY LOADGASBATTERY DISCHARGEHYDROWINDSOLARLOADCURTAILMENTPUMPED-HYDRO LOADFIGURE 6.Hourly U.S.Power-System Dispatch for an Average Weather Day in the 90%Clean Case in 2035 Figure 6 details the annual average generation stack for each hour of an average weather day.Wind and solar provide a large share of nighttime and daytime generation,respectively,and broadly complement each other.Battery storage is primarily dispatched during evening hours when solar generation drops and load remains relatively high.2035 THE REPORT|18For all weather years,the natural gas capacity requirements are highest in August,when wind generation falls significantly(Figures 7 and 8).Natural gas generation above 300 GW is required for fewer than 45 hours per year over the 7-weather-year simulation.Of the 360 GW of natural gas dispatch in 2035 under the 90%Clean case,70 GW has a capacity factor below 1%.Other technology alternatives not considered in this analysis,such as demand response,energy efficiency,or flexible load,may be more cost-effective for system balancing in those hours.We also find that increased electrification of the U.S.economy reduces the amount of battery storage required,and results in slightly lower wholesale power costs than the 90%Clean Case(see Appendix 3).DAILY ENERGY(TWH/DAY)20181614121086420-2NUCLEARBATTERY LOADPUMPED-HYDRO LOADGASHYDROBATTERY DISCHARGEWINDSOLARLOADCURTAILMENTDAILY ENERGY BALANCEJAN2035FEB2035MAR2035APR2035MAY2035JUN2035JUL2035AUG2035SEP2035OCT2035NOV2035DEC2035TOTAL GAS GENERATION IN 2035(GW)4003002001000GAS GENERATION IN 2035 FOR SEVEN WEATHER YEARSJAN/O7JAN/O8JAN/O9JAN/10JAN/11JAN/12JAN/13JUL/O7JUL/O8JUL/O9JUL/10JUL/11JUL/12JUL/13FIGURE 8.Hourly U.S.Natural Gas Dispatch over 7 Weather Years in the 90%Clean Case in 2035Figure 8 details the hourly natural gas generation in 2035 for 7 weather years.The maximum natural gas generation required is 360 GW.FIGURE 7.Daily U.S.Power System Dispatch Averaged Over 7 Weather Years in the 90%Clean Case in 20352035 THE REPORT|19The renewable energy variation we observe over the 7-year period is similar to the variation observed over a 35-year period by Shaner et al.(2018),although they may underestimate the variation in wind generation compared to that seen in our data,as Shaner et al.considers significantly lower spatial resolution than our study.Our analysis does not consider 35 weather years owing to lack of data.Further,our simulation includes adequate natural gas and battery storage capacity to meet residual load(load minus clean energy generation)that is up to 113%of average load and 70%of peak load.Hence,even if a longer period of weather data reveals larger gaps between load and wind/solar generation,additional firm capacity requirements are unlikely to be significant.However,further work is needed to assess this possibility.In summary,retaining existing hydropower capacity and nuclear power capacity(after accounting for planned retirements)and about half of existing fossil fuel capacity,combined with 150 GW of new 4-hour battery storage,is sufficient to meet U.S.electricity demand with a 90%clean grid in 2035,even during periods of low renewable energy generation and/or high demand.Under the 90%Clean case,all existing coal plants are retired by 2035,and no new fossil fuel plants are built beyond those already under construction.During normal periods of generation and demand,wind,solar,and batteries provide 70%of total annual generation,while hydropower and nuclear provide 20%.During periods of high demand and/or low renewable generation,existing natural gas plants(primarily combined-cycle plants)cost-effectively compensate for remaining mismatches between demand and renewables-plus-battery generationaccounting for about 10%of total annual electricity generation,which is about 70%lower than their generation in 2019.Although the capacity-expansion modeling(ReEDS)required that clean resources contribute 90%of annual generation in 2035,the hourly operational model(PLEXOS)simulated roughly 85%clean generation,primarily due to higher curtailment of wind and solar.PLEXOS model dispatch decisions were based on the variable cost of generation and did not consider the carbon free or non-carbon free nature of the generation source.In an electricity market with a 90%clean energy constraint,as modeled in our 90%Clean Case,clean energy may bid negative prices in certain hours in order to get dispatched and meet the 90%constraint.We utilize ReEDS to effectively model this 90%clean electricity share,while the main purpose of our simulation in PLEXOS is to evaluate operational feasibility.For this reason,we did not simulate the same 90%clean energy constraint in 2035 THE REPORT|20PLEXOS,which might have required clean energy to bid negative prices in order to get dispatched.7 Our modeling approach represents a conservative strategy for achieving 90%clean energy.Various complementary approaches could help achieve this deep decarbonization,with potential for even lower system costs and accelerated emissions reductions.Demand-side approaches include demand response and flexible loads,such as flexible electric vehicle charging and flexible water heatingwhich could play a large role if building and vehicle electrification occurs more rapidly than envisioned in our core cases.Flexible load could similarly take advantage of zero or negatively priced electricity that is likely to occur during the hours of curtailment,which will likely increase the overall clean energy share.New supply-side resources,such as firm low-carbon generation or longer-duration storage,could also provide system flexibility.Firm,low-carbon resources could include electricity generation from gases(such as hydrogen or methane)produced via excess clean electricity,small modular nuclear reactors,long-duration storage,or other emerging technologies.Such alternative approaches to balancing generation and demand could cost less than retaining significant natural gas capacity that is rarely used.3.3 ELECTRICITY COSTS FROM THE 90%CLEAN GRID ARE LOWER THAN TODAYS COSTSWholesale electricity(generation plus incremental transmission)costs are lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are today(Figure 9).8 The base wholesale electricity cost under the 90%Clean case is 4.6 cents/kWh,about 10%lower than the 5.1 cents/kWh in 2020.Wholesale costs in the 90%Clean case in 2035 are 4.25.6 cents/kWh across all cost sensitivities.The only sensitivity case in which those costs are marginally(10%)higher than costs in 2020 assumes both high technology costs and high financing costs(see Appendix 3 for details).Lower wholesale costs would translate into lower retail electricity prices,assuming electricity distribution costs do not change significantly in the 90%Clean case.9 7 The fact that PLEXOS curtails more clean energy generation than ReEDS is primarily due to two factors:1)ReEDS does not have the full set of real system constraints;and 2)we are not modelling a clean energy constraint or negative bid prices in PLEXOS.8 Costs include recovery of capital costs from new and existing generation capacity,fixed operations and maintenance costs,fuel and variable operations and maintenance costs,and new transmission(bulk and spurline)investments.The cost figures referenced throughout this report refer to the total wholesale generation costs plus the cost of additional transmission investments beyond 2019.9 We assume distribution costs do not rise faster than inflation in the next 15 years.Because the 90%Clean case does not rely heavily on distributed energy resources,this is a reasonable assumption.Distributed PV serves as an input to the ReEDS model based on NRELs distributed generation model.In 2035,under the 90%Clean case,there are approximately 60 GW of distributed PV,representing approximately 2%of total energy generation.2035 THE REPORT|21These findings are similar to the findings of power-system studies conducted in the past 12 years,but the clean power system target date for most of those studies is 15 years later than 2035(Jayadev et al.2020,Bogdanov et al.2019).Our findings contrast sharply with the findings of studies completed more than 5 years ago,which show future electricity bills rising compared to todays bills.For example,NRELs Renewable Electricity Futures Study,published in 2012,projected retail electricity price increases of about 40pove 2010 prices,for a system with 90%renewable electricity penetration in 2050(NREL 2012).Renewable energy and battery costs have declined much faster than these older studies assumed,which is the main reason their cost results differ so much from ours.FIGURE 9.Wholesale Electricity Costs(Costs of Generation and Incremental Transmission)with(left)and without(right)Environmental(Air Pollution and Carbon Emissions)Costs,for the 90%Clean and No New Policy CasesIf environmental costs are included,wholesale electricity costs are about 33%lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are in 2020,and they are 25%lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are in 2035 under the No New Policy case.Without considering environmental costs,wholesale electricity costs are 10%lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are in 2020,but they are 12%higher in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are in 2035 under the No New Policy case.80706050403020100202O202520302035202O202520302035$/MWh(2018 REAL)$/MWh(2018 REAL)90%CLEAN W/ENV COSTNO NEW POLICY W/ENV COST80706050403020100NO NEW POLICY W/O ENV COST90%CLEAN W/O ENV COSTLow renewable energy and storage costs are the primary reason that electricity costs decline under the 90%Clean case.Section 2 shows the dramatic national renewable energy and storage cost trends.Figure 10 illustrates that these competitive costs become available throughout the country,even in regions previously considered resource-poor for renewable energy generation.Our estimates align with some of the recent renewable energy bids seen in relatively resource-poor regions.2035 THE REPORT|22FIGURE 10.Average Solar(top)and Wind(bottom)LCOE by Region in the 90%Clean Case in 2035 The maps show capacity-weighted average LCOE for the least-cost portfolio to meet the 90%clean energy target for the 134 balancing areas represented in ReEDS.LCOE includes the current phase-out of the federal renewable energy investment and production tax credits.The LCOE in most zones is lower than 3.5 cents/kWh.We use NRELs 2019 ATB Mid-Case(NREL 2019)for cost projections with some modifications,which account for the cost reductions already benchmarked to recent PPA pricing.WINDSOLAR 2-3 cents/kWh 3-3.5 cents/kWh 3.5-4 cents/kWh 4-5 cents/kWh No Capacity AddedUnder the 90%Clean case,most transmission investments are in new spurline transmission rather than bulk transmission(Figure 11).10 Although the 90%Clean case requires about three times more spurline investment than the No New Policy case does,the total transmission requirements in the 90%Clean case add only 0.2 cents/kWh to total system costs.11 Recent studies that account for low renewable energy and storage costs have similar findings(Jayadev et al.2020).Studies that assume much higher renewable energy costs or do not consider storage find higher levels of additional bulk transmission required(Clack et al.2017,NREL 2012).12 Further work is needed to understand transmission needs more precisely.10 Spurline transmission refers to lines needed to connect remote renewable energy generation to the bulk transmission system or load centers.Bulk transmission refers to larger,higher-capacity transmission lines designed to carry electricity across long distances at high voltages,typically above 115 kV.11 Construction of spurline transmission is likely less complex than construction of bulk transmission,because spurline transmission typically does not cross multiple jurisdictions.12 We assessed a scenario with higher renewable energy and storage costs based on NREL ATB 2015(NREL 2015)and found that significant additional bulk transmission is cost-effective,suggesting thatwhen renewable energy and battery costs are highsignificant new bulk transmission is useful.However,when those costs are low,as modeled in the 90%Clean case,limited new bulk transmission investments are necessary.2035 THE REPORT|238070605040302010090%CLEAN90%CLEAN90%CLEANEASTERN INTERCONNECTWECCERCOTNO NEW POLICYNO NEW POLICYNO NEW POLICYNEW TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT,2020-2035$BILLION(2018 REAL)Spurline Bulk Transmission27219197111232Low electricity costs in the 90%Clean case are also facilitated by the limited use of fossil fuel generators;all coal plants are retired by 2035,and no new natural gas plants are built(see Section 3.2).Thus,the 90%Clean case avoids large amounts of fuel and large investments in generating capacity that is used infrequently.In addition,using a 2035 target year provides sufficient time for existing fossil assets to recover most of their fixed costs and thus avoids significant stranded-asset costs.Of the approximately 1,000 GW of U.S.fossil fuel generation capacity operating today,800 GW will be at least 30 years old in 2035(Figure 12)(Jell 2017).At this time,a high percentage of the coal and older natural gas units will be fully depreciated(given the usual depreciation life of 30 years or less)and can be retired at little or no cost to consumers and minimal stranded costs.13 For coal plants with significant undepreciated balances,securitization of these balances through government-or ratepayer-backed bonds can yield significant savings and reduce financial hardship for asset owners,as discussed in an accompanying report from Energy Innovation(Energy Innovation 2020).13 We define stranded cost as the cost of fossil assets that are not used but have not been fully depreciated,assuming a depreciation life of 30 years.From a market standpoint,this applies only to assets that are built and operated by utilities.Assets that operate under a PPA or are merchant power plants cannot be considered stranded from a market perspective.See the accompanying report from Energy Innovation for further discussion of stranded assets(Energy Innovation 2020).FIGURE 11.Additional Spurline and Bulk Transmission Investments by Interconnect under the 90%Clean and No New Policy Cases,20202035The vast majority of transmission investments are spurline investments as opposed to bulk transmission system investments.Total transmission investments add only 0.2 cents/kWh to system costs in the 90%Clean case.ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas,WECC=Western Electricity Coordinating Council.2035 THE REPORT|24Conversely,using existing natural gas capacity to meet about 10%of electricity demand avoids the need to build excess renewable energy and long-duration storage capacityhelping accelerate the timeline for 90%clean electricity while keeping costs down.Further decarbonization could then build on this mostly clean electricity system;several pathways to 100%clean electricity have been identified.See Appendix 1 for a brief literature review on many of these analyses.Although electricity costs are lower in 2035 under the 90%Clean case than they are today,they are 0.46 cents/kWh(12%)higher than they are under the No New Policy case in 2035(Figure 9).However,this comparison does not account for the value of carbon emissions and air pollutant reductions,which make the societal costs of electricity substantially lower under the 90%Clean case than they are under the No New Policy case(see Section 3.6).In addition,the 90%Clean case supports additional jobs in the electricity sector compared with the No New Policy case(Section 3.5).Finally,significant natural gas capacity is built under the No New Policy case,which likely will result in future stranded costs,whereas no new fossil fuel capacity is built under the 90%Clean case.1414 If there still are a few coal units owned by regulated utilities that,in 2035(or at time of retirement)have undepreciated life-extension or pollution-control capital costs,those can be retired at low cost using a securitization mechanism.This approach has been used in recent years by large investor-owned and public utilities to create a positive return for shareholders and downward pressure on wholesale and retail electricity prices(Lehr and OBoyle 2018).FIGURE 12.Undepreciated Value of Existing U.S.Fossil Fuel Capacity,20202035By 2035,the remaining undepreciated value of fossil fuel generating plants is minimal,suggesting a transition to 90%clean energy can be accomplished with minimal stranded assets.0100200300400UNDEPRECIATED VALUE OF EXISTING FOSSIL ASSETS($BILLION)2020202520302035$BILLION(2018 REAL)Coal Gas-Combined Cycle Gas-Combustion Turbine Other2035 THE REPORT|253.4 SCALING-UP RENEWABLES TO ACHIEVE 90%CLEAN ENERGY BY 2035 IS FEASIBLETo achieve the 90%Clean case by 2035,1,100 GW of new wind and solar generation must be built,averaging about 70 GW per year(Figure 13).For comparison,the size of todays U.S.power sector is approximately 1,000 GW.Although challenging,a renewable energy buildout of this magnitude is feasible with the right supporting policies in place.For example,65 GW of U.S.natural gas generation were built in 2002(Ray 2017).1400120010008006004002000CUMULATIVE NEW CAPACITY ADDITIONSNEW CAPACITY(GW)Battery Storage Solar Wind202O202520302035Historical and planned U.S.renewable energy deployments also suggest that annual deployments of 70 GW are possible.In 2016,15 GW of PV were installed,and EIA suggests that 19.4 GW of wind will be deployed in 2020(EIA 2020b).Interconnection queues in the United States currently include 544 GW of wind,solar,and standalone battery storage,roughly half of the 1,100 GW required(Bolinger et al.2019a,2019b).Storage,onshore wind,and solar generation generally have shorter construction times compared with natural gas plants,and they do not require a gas pipeline connection.Significant policy support is needed to achieve this level of renewable energy deployment,as highlighted in an accompanying report from Energy Innovation(2020).New renewable resources can be built cost-effectively in all regions of the country,as indicated by the proliferation of utility-scale renewables nationwide.The top 10 states for installed utility-scale solar represent at least four distinct regions:New England,the Southeast,the West,and the Southwest.More than FIGURE 13.Cumulative New Capacity Additions in the 90%Clean Case,202020352035 THE REPORT|2675%of U.S.states have one or more utility-scale solar projects(Bolinger et al.2019a,2019b).The Midwest,once considered a laggard for utility-scale renewable projects,accounted for the largest percentage of solar added to interconnection queues in 2018(26%).3.5 THE 90%CLEAN GRID CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ENERGY-SECTOR EMPLOYMENTThe COVID-19 pandemic has taken a heavy human and economic toll.In just 6 weeks,the pandemic wiped out over 40 million American jobs.In a slack labor market,such as the one that Americans may experience in the coming years owing to a contracting economy,a clean energy buildout could be a key part of the economic recovery.The 90%Clean case supports approximately 29 million job-years cumulatively during 20202035.Employment related to the energy sector increases by about 8.5 million job-years as increased employment from expanding renewable energy and battery storage more than replaces lost employment related to declining fossil fuel generation(Figure 14).The No New Policy case requires one-third fewer jobs,for a total of 20 million job-years over the study period.These jobs include direct,indirect,and induced jobs related to construction,manufacturing,operations and maintenance,and the supply chain.15 In the 90%Clean case,an increase in construction-and manufacturing-related jobs outweighs a smaller decrease in jobs related to operations and maintenance.Fossil fuel power-sector jobs are dominated by fuel handling,operations,and maintenance activity.Solar,wind,and storage plants require less daily maintenance and no fuel handling,but they do require far more labor-intensive construction jobs.16 15 A job-year represents one full-time job held for one year.16 There is uncertainty about where clean energy manufacturing might occur in a 90%Clean case.The employment factors modeled in IMPLAN assume most PV,wind,and battery component manufacturing occurs in the United States.This assumption potentially overstates the resulting domestic jobs in all scenarios;those results should be considered as upper bounds of employment potential.Supporting federal policy can drive employment in these sectors and ensure jobs in manufacturing and the supply chain remain in the United States,as indicated in a supporting report from Energy Innovation(2020).2035 THE REPORT|27-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000CUMULATIVE JOB-YEARS(000),90%CLEAN COMPARED TO NO NEW POLICYNETTOTALINDUCEDINDIRECTDIRECT Construction&Manufacturing Operations&MaintenanceFIGURE 14.Cumulative Job-Years 20202035,90%Clean Case Compared to the No New Policy CaseOverall,the 90%Clean case supports over 500,000 more jobs each year compared to the No New Policy case.A loss of about 100,000 fossil fuel operations and maintenance jobs is more than offset by growth in wind and solar construction of over 600,000 jobs per year.The 90%Clean case supports about 1.8 million ongoing jobs,or a total of approximately 29 million job-years from 20202035.About 1.1 million jobs,or 18 million job-years,are related to the construction,manufacturing,and supply chain of the electricity system(including induced jobs).The additional 700,000 jobs(11 million job-years)are related to operations and maintenance.In contrast,the No New Policy case supports approximately 1.3 million ongoing jobs,or 20 million job-years from 20202035.Approximately 460,000 ongoing jobs(7.4 million job-years)are related to construction,manufacturing,and supply chain industries,while another 813,000(13 million job-years)are related to operations and maintenance.Although economic models such as IMPLAN are useful in determining the upside potential of job creation,the results are only realized through significant policy support.The extraordinary economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to drive job creation in the near term through accelerated renewable energy deployment.The 2009 American Reinvestment and Recovery Act can serve as a model for effective stimulus spending(Mundaca and Luth Richter 2015).All regions of the country could experience significant economic activity from local renewable energy generation and storage deployment.However,in some communities,the shift away from fossil fuel generation may disrupt workers and communities that rely on jobs and tax revenue related to fossil 2035 THE REPORT|28fuel production and power generation.Policies implemented to decarbonize the power sector should include explicit measures to support transitions to a lower-carbon economy.Existing research suggests that wind and PV plants can be built close to many retiring coal plants,helping to provide new economic opportunities in the impacted communities(Gimon et al.2019).Support for economic redevelopment and diversification beyond the clean energy industry can help more generally with an effective transition from fossil fuels.A supporting report from Energy Innovation highlights key policy drivers to support coal community services,health,and employment during the energy transition(Energy Innovation 2020).Appendix 4 reports the employment results in detail.3.6 THE 90%CLEAN GRID AVOIDS$1.2 TRILLION IN HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES,INCLUDING 85,000 PREMATURE DEATHS,THROUGH 2050The 90%Clean case nearly eliminates emissions from the U.S.power sector by 2035(Figure 15),resulting in environmental cost savings as well as reduced mortality related to electricity generation.Further,achieving 90%clean electricity by 2035 accelerates benefits in ensuing years,because the No New Policy power system continues to be fossil fuel dependent.We estimate climate-related impacts using a social cost of carbon value,and we estimate human health damages due to NOx,SO2,and fine particulate matter(PM2.5)emissions using an established method from the literature.17 Compared to the No New Policy case,in the 90%Clean case CO2 emissions are reduced by 1,300 million metric tons(88%)through 2035,while NOx and SO2 emissions are reduced by 96%and 99%,respectively(Figure 15).See Appendix 4 for details of the analysis.17 Benefits of reduced greenhouse gas emissions are valued at a social cost of carbon of approximately$50/metric ton(derived from Baker et al.2019 and Ricke et al.2018).Avoided air pollution damage estimates for SO2,NOx,and PM2.5 are based on state-by-state damage factors provided by Maninder Thind based on Thind et al.(2019).2035 THE REPORT|29FIGURE 15.Emissions of CO2,SO2,and NOx in the 90%Clean and No New Policy Cases,2020203520001800160014001200100080060040020002020202520302035MILLION TONS/YR90%CLEANNO NEW POLICYCO2 EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR)1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0202020252030203590%CLEANNO NEW POLICYSO2 EMISSIONS(MILLION TONS/YR)MILLION TONS/YR1.21.00.80.60.40.20.02020202520302035NO NEW POLICYNOX EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR)90%CLEANMILLION TONS/YRAs a result,the 90%Clean case avoids about$1.2 trillion(in 2018 dollars)in environmental and health costs through 2050,including approximately 85,000 premature deaths,largely due to avoided SO2,NOx,and CO2 emissions from coal plants(Figure 16)(Holland et al.2019).18 The environmental cost savings from the 90%Clean case roughly equate to 2 cents/kWh of wholesale electricity costs.Avoided premature deaths are primarily because of reduced exposure to PM2.5,driven by reductions in SO2 emissions,a precursor to PM2.5,from coal plants.19 About 60%of the avoided environmental costs are from avoided CO2 emissions,with the remainder associated with reduced exposure to PM2.5.18 Coal power generation accounted for about 90%of air pollution related premature deaths and about 60%of CO2 emissions associated with the U.S.power sector in 2019.The marginal environmental damage of coal(which our modeling does not include in our main scenarios)is highly significant(about two times the variable cost of coal).This fact,and the very low capacity factors predicted for coal plants in 2035,led us to assume that all coal power plants retire after 40 years of life(which allows them to recover most of their fixed costs).In 2035,we find that about 10%of the coal capacity will be 40 years old or younger.19 Primary PM2.5 emissions factors are not modeled in ReEDS,and hence our estimate of reduced emissions contributing to reduced PM2.5 exposure may be conservative.Based on Thind et al.(2019)and Goodkind et al.(2019),primary PM2.5 emissions contribute to roughly 10%of premature deaths due to PM2.5 exposure.2035 THE REPORT|30120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000CUMULATIVE PREMATURE DEATHS90%CLEANNO NEW POLICYFIGURE 16.Cumulative Premature Deaths Due to SO2 and NOx Pollution,20202050CUMULATIVE PREMATURE DEATHS202O203020402050THE 90%CLEAN CASE AVOIDS ABOUT 85,000 PREMATURE DEATHS BY 2050 RELATIVE TO THE NO NEW POLICY CASE.These estimates are meant to illustrate the magnitude of some of the societal benefits that may be realized through rapid power-sector decarbonization.However,the environmental and health impacts of electricity use are subject to substantial uncertainties,and differences in input parameters provided by various sources can have large effects on impact calculations(Thind et al.2019).Our estimate of premature deaths(about 3,500 per year)for the No New Policy case is approximately half the estimate reported in much of the existing literature,suggesting our analysis presents a conservative estimate of premature deaths.20 Our assumptions regarding the social cost of carbon are based on the lower range of estimates of national social cost of carbon calculations.Important milestones can be achieved before 2035 as well.This report shows that,by 2030,the United States can reach over 70%zero-carbon electricity on the grid at no additional cost.The IPCC states that global economy-wide emissions must be reduced 45%by 2030 from 2010 levels to limit warming to 1.5(UN IPCC 2018).Using a 2010 baseline,reaching over 70%zero-carbon electricity in the United States by 2030 would contribute an 18%reduction in U.S.economy-wide emissions,and reaching 90%zero-carbon electricity would contribute a 27%reduction by 2035.This is a meaningful contribution to the overall 20 Estimates of premature deaths cited in Thind et al.(2019)range between 10,000 and 17,050 premature deaths per year.2035 THE REPORT|31requirements outlined by the IPCC,and a clean electricity system can help reduce emissions from transportation and buildings via conversion to electric vehicles and appliances.Refining the estimates of benefits from the 90%Clean case is an important area for future work.Appendix 4 provides analysis of two particular impacts of expanding renewable energy technologies and shrinking fossil fuel generation:reduced water use and increased land use related to electricity generation.SOCIAL COST OF CARBON CASEWe analyze a scenario in which the social costs of CO2 emissions are embedded into the wholesale generation cost of fossil fuel plants.The CO2 price begins at$10/metric ton in 2020,ramps up by 5%until 2025,and then increases 1.5ch year thereafter,reaching$50/metric ton in 2035.This case rapidly accelerates the early retirement of coal power and dramatically scales up early investments in new renewable energy resources.Although this case is slightly more expensive than the No New Policy case,the reductions in CO2 emissions,air pollutants,and associated environmental costs are extraordinarily large.See Appendix 2 and 3 for details.ACHIEVING A 100%-CLEAN U.S.POWER SECTORThis reports target of 90%clean electricity(rather than 100%)by 2035 is important for envisioning decarbonization at a pace more rapid than considered in conventional policymaking and academic research.The use of currently available,cost-effective technology to accelerate near-complete power-sector decarbonization provides additional time and resources to pursue complete power-sector decarbonization.Significant uncertainties surround the economic and operational viability of potential technologies and strategies needed to achieve 100%power-sector decarbonization,and these approaches are subject to considerable debate.Research and development needs and policies to scale up the technologies needed for 100%clean electricity are detailed in Energy Innovations companion policy report(2020).The major contribution of our report is its demonstration of a path to near-complete power-sector decarbonization that is readily available and cost-effectiveonly concerted policy action is required to ramp-up affordable clean generation and stop the construction of unnecessary fossil fuel plants.Achieving this near-complete power-sector decarbonization in 2035 may ultimately increase the speed and cost-effectiveness of pervasive,cross-sector decarbonization.2035 THE REPORT|32Although we assess operational feasibility of the U.S.power system using weather-synchronized load and generation data,further work is needed to advance our understanding of other facets of a 90%clean power system.First,this report primarily focuses on renewable-specific technology pathways and does not explore the full portfolio of clean technologies that could contribute to future electricity supply.Importantly,our modeling approach represents a conservative strategy to achieve 90%clean energy.A number of complementary technologies or approaches could contribute to deep decarbonization,many of which could result in even lower system costs or accelerated emissions reductions.Additionally,issues such as loss of load probability,system inertia,and alternating-current transmission flows need further assessment.Options to address these issues have been identified elsewhere(e.g.Denholm 2020).Although this analysis does not attempt a full power-system reliability assessment,we perform scenario and sensitivity analysis to ensure that demand is met in all periods,including during extreme weather events and periods of low renewable energy generation.This modeling approach provides confidence that a 90%clean electricity grid is operational.Finally,although this report describes the system characteristics needed to accommodate high levels of renewable generation,it does not address the institutional,market,and regulatory changes that are needed to facilitate such a transformation.A supporting report from Energy Innovation identifies many of these solutions(Energy Innovation 2020).Further study limitations and a more robust narrative of detailed results can be found in the appendices.The 2035 Report details how renewable energy and battery storage costs have fallen to such an extent that,with concerted policy efforts,the U.S.power sector can reach 90%clean energy by 2035 without increasing consumer bills or impacting the operability of the electric grid.In doing so,the U.S.power sector can inject over$1.7 trillion in clean energy investments into the U.S.economy,support employment equivalent to about 29 million job-years cumulatively during 20202035,and largely eliminate planet-warming and air pollution emissions from 4CAVEATS AND FUTURE WORK2035 THE REPORT|33electricity generation.This 90%clean electricity grid can provide clean,dependable power without the construction of new fossil fuel plants.However,the 90%clean grid cannot be achieved without concerted policy action,and business-as-usual could lead to over$1.2 trillion in cumulative health and environmental damages,including 85,000 premature deaths.Perhaps most importantly,this report shows that the timeline for near-complete decarbonization of the electric sector can be accelerated from 2050 to 2035.This is critical,because power-sector decarbonization can be the catalyst for decarbonization across all economic sectors via electrification of vehicles,buildings,and industry.Owing to the global nature of renewable energy and battery markets,our report indicates the possibility that cost-effective decarbonization can be a near-term reality for other regions and countries.More research is needed to identify the potential for near-complete decarbonization in the 2035 timeframe in other regions of the world.Such rapid decarbonization,if pursued by other high-emitting jurisdictions worldwide,would increase the likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5C.This reports target of 90%clean electricity(rather than 100%)by 2035 is also important for envisioning decarbonization at a pace more rapid than considered in previous studies.This target allows some existing natural gas generation capacity to be used infrequently to meet demand during periods of low renewable energy generation,which otherwise require major additional investments in renewable energy and energy storage,increasing costs dramatically.2035 THE REPORT|34Aggarwal,Sonia and Mike OBoyle.2020.Top Policies to Capture the Economic Opportunity of a Clean Electricity System.Energy 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Geography.Environmental Science&Technology 53(23):1401014019.UN IPCC(United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).2018.Special Report:Global Warming of 1.5.UN IPCC.Wiser,R.,M.Bolinger.2019.2018 Wind Technologies Market Report.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.2035 THE REPORT|37
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Global Trends in Solar PowerJuly 2023Trends in Solar PV.15Global Solar Overview.7Introduction.4Executive Summary.3Solar&Equity.48Way Forward.53References.54Contents12347564.1 NDCs and Renewable Energy Trends164.2 Policy and Regulatory Trends.194.3 Solar Technology Trends254.4 Solar Supply Chain Trends304.5 Solar Market Trends354.6 Solar Investment Trends424.7 Solar Employment Trends45Executive SummaryIn response to an unprecedented health crisis,countries had hoped to seize the post Covid-19 opportunity for agreen and sustainable recovery.Renewable energy sector experienced record growth in power capacity in 2022 dueto the newly installed PV systems,overall rise in electricity demand,government incentives and growing awarenessof need to transition to clean energy sources.The solar PV market maintained its record-breaking streak,with new capacity installations totalling to approximately191 GW in 2022(IRENA,2023).This was the largest annual capacity increase ever recorded and brought thecumulative global solar PV capacity to 1,133 GW.The solar PV market continued its steady growth despitedisruptions across the solar value chain,mainly due to sharp increases in the costs of raw materials and shipping.In2022,114 ISA countries(members and signatories)represented approximately 489 GW(43%)of the global solar PVcapacity.Europe&others region account for 56%of the total installed solar capacity among the ISA membersfollowed by the Asia-Pacific(36%),Latin America&Caribbean and Africa regions contributing to approximately 7%and 1%respectively.In addition to the increase in solar capacity installations,135 countries had included renewable energy componentsin their NDCs globally.The latest/revised renewable energy target in ISA Member countries are discussed in furthersections of this report.The number of countries with renewable energy policies increased in 2022,continuing themulti-year trend seen in 2021 and 2020.Most countries support renewables with policy instruments that often varydepending on the technology,scale or other features of installation(e.g.,centralised or decentralised).Innovation and cost trends are being increasingly seen across a broad range of technologies.The emergence of newcell architectures has enabled higher efficiency levels.In particular,the most important market shift in cellarchitecture has resulted from bifacial cells and modules.Other technology improvements of solar such as solartrees,solar carports and floating solar are also discussed in this report.Solar PV cost trends emphasise on the majordrivers for reduction in the cost of solar PV in 2023 and the decline in costs of solar PV module and othercomponents.Major factors contributing to declining module costs included polysilicon availability and decline in theshipping costs and raw materials.The section on Solar Market Trends describes the Distributed Renewables for Energy Access(DREA)systems,whichare a key solution for fulfilling the modern energy needs and also improving the livelihoods of hundreds of millionsof people presently lacking access to electricity/clean cooking solutions.It specifically holds the key in cases wheredevelopment of electric grid to deliver electricity up to the last mile is commercially not viable.Further,the reportcaptures the market trends covering solar infrastructure and electricity access rates in ISA Member countries.Global investment in renewables reached USD 0.5 Tn in 2022 due to the global rise in solar PV installations.Solar PVdominated investment in 2022,accounting for 64%of the renewable energy investment.The overall snapshot of theinvestment trends across Asia-Pacific,Africa,Europe&others and Latin America&Caribbean regions are capturedin the solar PV investment trends section of this report.This report is intended to educate the reader to understand the ongoing trends in the solar space across the worldin terms of technology,policy,employment etc.and could bring out positive change in the lives of people and theplanet.1Global trends in Solar Power3IntroductionInternational Solar Alliance was launched on November 30,2015 by India andFrance and ISAs framework agreementcame into force on December 7,2017.Headquartered in India,the alliance of 114 countries works to address energyneeds and challenges in Member Countries and scale up solar through multipleflagshipinterventions.As part of its Ease of Doing Solar(EoDS)initiative which provides data onrenewable energy with a focus on solar for individual Member Countries,ISA alsopublishes the Global trends in Solar Power report which provides an overview oftrends in the Solar Sector.About International Solar Alliance(ISA)International Solar Alliance(ISA)aims to provide a dedicated platform for cooperation among solar-resource-richcountries,through which the global community(governments,bilateral/multilateral organizations,corporates,industry and the stakeholders)can contribute to help achieve the common goal of increasing the use and quality ofsolar energy.Further,ISA seeks to meet the energy needs of its prospective member countries in a safe,convenient,affordable,equitable and sustainable manner.ISA has conceptualized the Ease of Doing Solar(“EoDS”)report for its member countries to capture and develop aholistic view of a countrys solar ecosystem.The Global trends in Solar Power report,as a part of the EoDS initiative,is envisaged to present key trends in the global solar market with a focus on ISA member countries.The objective ofthe report is to capture the best practices and trends in the area of policy,technology,market eco-system,supplychain and investment/employment in the industry globally with a focus on ISA member countries.To avert the deleterious effects of climate change,the world is undergoing a major transition in the energy sector toachieve net-zero targets.Renewable energy occupies a central role in energy transition,and it is evident from theincreasing trend of capacity additions,employments,and increasing solar energy investments.The major drivers forthe increased penetration of solar deployment are described below,Strong policy support for solar PV is driving the acceleration in capacity growth-Policy support remains a principaldriver of solar PV deployment across the globe.Solar PV is the major renewable technology of choice in the private sector-Companies investing in solar PVinstallations on their own premises are responsible for 30%of total installed PV capacity as of 2021.Companies entering into corporate PPAs signing direct contracts with solar PV operators for the purchase ofgenerated electricity.Solar PV plants dominate renewables PPAs,with a share of almost 75%in 2020.Net zero ambitions of corporate-Many corporates had set their ambition to be a net zero company.Getting tonet zero requires tremendous,rapid change and large-scaletechnology deployment across industries.2Global trends in Solar Power4GlossaryGlobal trends in Solar Power5AbbreviationDefinitionAPVAgrophotovoltaicBoSBalance of SystemBnBillionCAGRCompound Annual Growth RateCMERICentral Mechanical Engineering Research InstituteCSIRCouncil of Scientific and Industrial ResearchCSPConcentrated Solar PowerDREADistributed Renewables for energy accessEPCEngineering,procurement and construction EUEuropean UnionEVElectric VehicleFIPFeed-in premiumFITFeed In TariffGWGigawattGWhGigawatt-hourKmKilometrekWhKilowatt-hourLCOELevelized cost of electricityLNOBLeave no one behindMnMillionMUMillion UnitsMVAMillion Volt AmpereAbbreviationDefinitionMWMegawattMWhMegawatt-hourMWpMegawatt peakNDCNationally Determined ContributionOGSOff-Grid SolutionsO&MOperation and MaintenancePLIProduction-linked incentive PPAPower purchasing agreementPVPhotovoltaicP2PPeer-to-peerRERenewable Energy RECRenewable Energy CertificateRPSRenewable Portfolio Standards SDGSustainable Development GoalsSHSSolar Home SystemsSTEMScience,Technology,Engineering and MathematicsTnTrillionTWhTerawatt-hourUNUnited NationsUSDUnited States DollarGlobal Trends in Renewables&Solar135 countries have notified net zero target,covering88%of global emissionsAt the 2021 UN climate summit,countries agreed to a phase-down of unabated coal power135 countries have notified renewable power targets,and 17 countries have solar specific targets3,372 GW of global installed renewable power capacity in 2022USD 0.5 Trillion in renewables andUSD 308 Billion invested in solar in 20221,053 GW of global installed solar energy capacity in 202212.7 Million Worldwide employment in renewable energy in 20214.3 Million jobs in solar PV,caters one third of the total renewable energy workforce in 2021Fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 532 Billionin 2021Global trends in Solar Power6Source:REN 21,IEA,IRENA;2022Global Solar Overview3Global Solar MarketA renewable-based economy is a game changer for a more secure,low-cost and sustainable energy future.Development of renewable energy is at the core of energy transition.Globally renewables are expected tobecome the new baseload accounting for 50%of the power mix by 2030 and 85%by 2050(IRENA,2022).Globalrenewable installed capacity growth accelerated in 2022 adding up to 295 GW1.The growth in renewable energypenetration was largely based on newly installed PV systems,overall rise in electricity demand,governmentincentives and growing awareness of need to transition to clean energy sources.Solar sector is gaining traction in recent years and is becoming a dominant force in renewable energy domain.The solar PV market maintained its record-breaking streak with new capacity installations totalling approximately191 GW in 20221.The graph below,depicts the cumulative global solar PV capacity in the last decade.Countrieslike China,the United States,Japan,India and Germany have made some of the significant contributions toglobal solar PV capacity. 31 30 38 40 50 77 103 104 112 139 175 191701041421822323094125166287679421,133020040060080010001200201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Global Solar PV Capacity and Annual Additions in GW(2011-2022)Previous years capacityAnnual additionsCumulative global solar PVcapacity37010414218223230941251662876794201002003004005006007008009001000201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Global Solar PV Capacity in GW,by Country(2011-2022)ChinaUnited StatesJapanIndiaGermanyRest of WorldWorldSource:REN 21,IRENA;20221REN21,2022Global trends in Solar Power81,133Regional InsightsAfricaThe market leaders in the African region in terms of total solar installed capacity are Egypt,Algeria,Morocco,Senegal,and Mali with 2,949 MW capacity contributing 62%of the total installed solar capacity in Africa.Owing to higher levelsof solar irradiations in the region,countries in Africa are bestowed with large solar potential and technologicalfeasibility.Significantly low levels of access to electricity in some countries present a significant opportunity for off-grid solar technologies.The total installed capacity of solar PV in Egypt has reached 1,704 MW in 2022 from 160 MW in2017,grown at a CAGR of 60%.The country is targeting renewable energy capacity to reachelectric power contribution target of 42%by 2035 as per Egypts Integrated Sustainable EnergyStrategy 2035.EgyptAlgeriaAlgeria constitutes a 9.2%share in the total installed capacity of solar PV in the African region.The total installed capacity has reached 435 MW in 2022 from 400 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGRof 2%.By 2030,it aspires to the deployment of solar photovoltaic and wind power as well asthermal solar energy on a large scale.It also aims to reach the target that 27%of the electricityproduced nationally is derived from renewable sources of energy by 2030.Morocco accounts for 6.7%share in the total installed solar PV capacity in Africa.The totalinstalled capacity has reached 318 MW in 2022 from 24 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 68%.Morocco is targeting to achieve a 52%RE share(20%from solar energy,20%from wind energyand 12%from hydraulic energy)in generation mix by 2030.MoroccoMali constitutes a 4.8%share in the total installed capacity of solar PV in the African region.Thetotal installed capacity has reached 229 MW in 2022 from 19 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of64%.Namibias efforts in renewables contributed to a 30%reduction in electricity imported in2018 which resulted in 330 MW of solar PV generation per annum until 2030.MaliSenegal accounts for 5.5%share in the total installed capacity of solar PV in the African region.Owing to the government target to increase the share of RE in the generation mix and favourablepolicies for the RE sector,the total installed capacity has reached 263 MW in 2022 from 107 MWin 2017,grown at a CAGR of 20%.SenegalSource:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power935.8%9.2%6.7%5.5%4.88.0%0%5 %05%1,704 MW435 MW318 MW263 MW229 MW1,804 MWEgyptAlgeriaMoroccoSenegalMaliOthersTop 5 ISA Member Countries by Solar PV Installation,2022(Total:2,949 MW)Asia PacificJapan,India and Australia have the major installations accounting for 96.4%of total capacity in the region.The Asia andPacific region comprise a diverse and dynamic region of the globe,with 4.4 Bn people living in 58 markets,ranging fromthe small island economies that are among the most vulnerable to the impact of the climate change to the worldslargest energy consumer.Along with the vast renewable energy potential,the region already possesses significantknowledge and expertise on renewables.Japan is the market leader in Asia and Pacific region with 78,833 MW of solar PV capacityinstalled in 2022 from 49,500 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 10%.The Japanese governmentdeveloped a set of measures to expand solar PV,which include requiring 60%of new residentialbuildings to include rooftop PV and deregulating land zoning to allow PV installations onagricultural land.JapanIndiaIndia has shown tremendous growth over the recent years with the total solar PV installedcapacity reaching 62,804 MW in 2022 from 17,923 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 29%.Market expansion was driven mainly by the focus on local manufacturing.The country istargeting to achieve 50%cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel basedenergy resources by 2030.For Australia,the total installed capacity of solar PV in the country has reached 26,789 MW in2022 from 7,352 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 30%.In 2021,Australia set a new global recordof 1 kW of installed solar PV per capita,which was 31%higher than in the runner-up country theNetherlands(0.765 kW per capita).AustraliaThe total installed capacity of solar PV in the country has reached 2,940 MW in 2022 from 255MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 63%.UAEs National Energy Strategy 2050 envisages a 50%share of clean energy(renewables and nuclear)in the installed power capacity mix by 2050.UAESri Lankas installed capacity of solar PV reached 714 MW in 2022 from 131 MW in 2017,grownat a CAGR of 40%.The country committed to achieve 70%renewable energy in electricitygeneration by 2030 as part of its latest NDC.Sri LankaSource:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power1045.15.9.3%1.7%0.4%1.5%0%5 %05EPx,833 MW62,804 MW26,789 MW2,940 MW714 MW2,664 MWJapanIndiaAustraliaUnited Arab EmiratesSri lankaOthersTop 5 ISA Member Countries by Solar Installation,2022(Total:172 GW)Europe and others*United States of America is the top market leader in Europe&others region and the total solarPV installed capacity has reached 1,11,535 MW in 2022 from 41,357 MW in 2017,grown at aCAGR of 22%.With increased consumer demand,the residential sector broke records withrooftop installations of 4.2 GW up 30%from 2020 and the highest annual growth rate since2015 to reach a total capacity of 23.1 GW.USAGermanyGermany is the second market leader in the Europe region and the total solar PV installedcapacity has reached 66,552 MW in 2022 from 42,291 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 9%.Thecountry has committed to increase renewable energy in final energy consumption to reach atleast 32%by 2030.The total installed capacity in Italy has reached 25,077 MW in 2022 from 19,682 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 5%.Italy has committed to increase renewable energy in final energyconsumption to reach at least 32%by 2030.ItalyNetherlands installed capacity of solar PV has reached 22,590 MW in 2022 from 2,903 MW in2017,grown at a CAGR of 51%.The increase in the share of solar was due to three factors:ahigher number of PV installations that went online during the year,falling electricity demand,and an exceptional number of sunny hours.NetherlandsSource:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power1140.4$.1%9.1%8.2%6.3.9%0%5 %05E%1,11,535 MW66,552 MW25,077 MW22,590 MW17,410 MW32,863 MWUnited States ofAmericaGermanyItalyNetherlandsFranceOthersTop 5 ISA Member Countries by Solar Installation,2022(Total:243 GW)The market leaders in the region are United States of America,Germany,Italy,Netherlands and France with 243 GWcapacity contributing 88.1%of the total installed solar capacity in the region.The EU has been a front-runner in thespread of solar energy.The European Green Deal and the REPowerEU plan have turned solar energy into a buildingblock of the EUs transition towards clean energy.The accelerated deployment of solar energy contributes toreducing the EUs dependence on imported fossil fuels.The total installed capacity of solar PV in France has reached 17,410 MW in 2022 from 8,610 MWin 2017,grown at a CAGR of 15%.France targets to reduce the share of nuclear from 70%to 50%in its electricity mix by 2035 and close its coal plants by 2022.The government is seeking toaccelerate progress in solar by streamlining permits,promoting flagship initiatives,and aligningregional and national ambitions.France*USA has been included in the Europe and Others region as per ISAs regional classification of member countries.Major markets in the LAC region are Brazil,Chile,Argentina,Dominican Republic and El Salvador having total installedcapacity of 32,731 MW in 2022,accounting for 96.8%of total capacity in the region.Latin America comprises some ofthe most dynamic renewable energy markets in the world,with more than a quarter of the primary energy(twice theglobal average)coming from renewable energy sources.The maturing technologies and renewable energy policyreforms offer an unprecedented opportunity to further tap the vast renewable energy potential in the region.Latin America and CaribbeanThe total installed capacity of solar PV in Brazil has reached 24,079 MW in 2022 from 1,104 MWin 2017,grown at a CAGR of 85%.The distributed solar installation led Brazils market for newlyadded capacity,with 4 GW,driven by soaring electricity prices due to a hydropower crisis and bya national net metering regulation.BrazilChileFor Chile,the total installed capacity of solar PV in the country has reached 6,142 MW in 2022from 1,809 MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 28%.Chile is home to one of the highestirradiation regions in the world,the desert of Atacama,with“around 60 to 70%of solar PV”capacity installed in the regions of Atacama.The total installed capacity of solar PV in Argentina has reached 1,104 MW in 2022 from 8.8MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 163%.Among the several initiatives to increase the powergeneration,the Argentinian government has launched the RenovAr Programme to develop theArgentinasrenewable energy sector.ArgentinaDominican Republics installed capacity of solar PV reached 742 MW in 2022 from 106 MW in2017,grown at a CAGR of 48%.The country plans for the displacement of the private vehiclesfleet by 75%EVs and 25%hybrids by 2030 with recharging from renewable sources at anestimated cost of USD 5 Mn.Dominican RepublicThe total installed capacity of solar PV in El Salvador has reached 664 MW in 2022 from 120.5MW in 2017,grown at a CAGR of 41%.El Salvador is in the process of implementing a new long-term national energy policy 2020 2050,which aims to reduce electricity tariffs in the countryby prioritising renewables over fuel imports and facilitating the removal of electricity subsidies.El SalvadorSource:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power1271.2.2%3.3%2.2%2.0%3.2%0 0Pp$,079 MW6,142 MW1,104 MW742 MW664 MW1,077 MWBrazilChileArgentinaDominican RepublicEl SalvadorOthersTop 5 ISA Member Countries by Solar Installation,2022(Total:33 GW)AfricaPer Capita Electricity DemandIn 2022,Global electricity demand reached a record high of 28,510 TWh.Major economies were responsible for themagnitude of this demand:China for 8,840 TWh(31%),India for 1,836 TWh(6%),United States for 4,335 TWh(15%),the European Union for 2,794 TWh(10%),Japan for 968 TWh(3%)and Russia for 1,102 TWh(4%).At a global level,the average per capita electricity demand reached 3.6 MWh in 2022,with major countries abovethe global per capita average(United States 13 MWh,South Korea 12 MWh,China 6.2 MWh)and other countriessuch as India 1.3 MWh and Bangladesh 0.6 MWh far below.Wind and solar met the majority of demand growth:In 2022,growth in wind and solar met 80%of the increase inelectricity demand,while renewables together met 92%of the growth.In China,wind and solar met 69%of theelectricity demand in 2022.In India,wind and solar met 23%of the demand growth.In the United States,wind andsolar met 68%of the demand growth.The figure below shows the electricity demand per capita across the 4 geographical regions(Africa,Asia&Pacific,Europe and others,Latin America&Caribbean),0.620.630.630.630.630.620.630.630.620.590.60.640.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.640.6520112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 2021 2022Per Capita Electricity Demand in MWh(2011-2022)Source:EMBER,2022TheAfricanregionselectricitydemand per capita of 0.6 MWh issignificantly lower than the worldaverage of 3.6 MWh in 2022.Africas proportion of electricitydemandgrowthmetbycleanenergy sources roughly doubled,from 23%during 2008-2015 to 61%during 2015-2022.Europe and others6.176.26.136.026.056.116.146.156.095.926.26.055.755.85.855.95.9566.056.16.156.26.252011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Per Capita Electricity Demand in MWh(2011-2022)Source:EMBER,2022TheEuroperegionselectricitydemand per capita of 6.05 MWh issignificantly higher than the worldaverage of 3.6 MWh in 2022.Since 2015,electricity demand intheregionhasbeenbroadlyunchanged and the growth in cleanpower reduced fossil generation.EUs electricity demand declinedfrom 6.2 MWh to 6.05 MWh in2022 due to the mild weather,alongsidedemandreductionmeasures driven in part by highelectricity prices across the region.Global trends in Solar Power13Latin America and Caribbean2.382.432.482.452.52.492.482.532.492.482.62.692.202.302.402.502.602.702.802011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Per Capita Electricity Demand in MWh(2011-2022)3.439.710.550.933.260.044.272.326.181.91.317.56.665.354.911.35.437.7610.576.690.1525.948.211.7913.221.614.7512.87051015202530Per Capita Electricity Demand(MWh)in 2022 ISA Member Countries Source:EMBER,2022The Latin America and Caribbeanregionselectricitydemandpercapita of 2.7 MWh is relativelylower than the world average of 3.6MWh in 2022.This region effectively increased theclean power over the last few yearstomeettherisingelectricitydemandandtoreducefossilgeneration.Asia Pacific2.192.272.382.492.492.582.712.872.942.963.183.310.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50201120122013 201420152016201720182019202020212022Per Capita Electricity Demand in MWh(2011-2022)Source:EMBER,2022The Asia Pacific regions electricitydemand per capita of 3.3 MWh isrelatively lower than the worldaverage of 3.6 MWh in 2022.Over half of the electricity demandincrease in Asia(52%)was metwith clean electricity over the lastfew years from 2015 to 2022.Based on the data availability from the secondary data sources,the electricity consumption per capita of ISA Member countries are captured below,From the above figure,it can be noted that the Norway has the highest electricity demand per capita of 25.94 MWhfollowed by Sweden(13.22 MWh)and USA(12.87 MWh)in 2022.USAs electricity demand per capita reached12.87 MWh,more than three times the world average of 3.6 MWh.Increased demand has been primarily met bysolar and wind replacing gas generation and retiring coal plants.Thus,the United States transition to wind and solaris happening faster than the global average.Europes electricity demand per capita of 6.05 MWh is higher than theworld average of 3.6 MWh.European Union is a critical region in the global transition to clean power and its effortsto reduce emissions through wind,solar and other clean electricity sources will have a significant impact to achievenet zero by 2050.Source:EMBER,2022Global trends in Solar Power14Trends in Solar PV4NDCs and Renewable Energy TrendsThe section presents an overview of the latest updates in the NDC focusing on the renewable energy targets of ISAmember countries.Renewable energy is one of the key components of the energy transition,but not all countrieshave included targets for their deployment in their NDCs.Based on the data availability from the secondary datasources,the revised/latest renewable energy targets of 34 ISA Member countries are captured below:CountryAlgeriaAntigua&BarbudaBahrainBarbadosBelizeBoliviaCambodiaCameroonCape VerdeDescription27%of the electricity produced nationally to be derived from renewable sources of energy by 2030;4hieved(2020)86%renewable energy generation from local resources in the electricity sector by 2030;7hieved(2020)Renewables will cover 5%of peak capacity in 2025 and 10%in 2035;1hieved(2020)against 2025 targets95%share of renewable energy in the electricity mix by 2030;7hieved(2020)75%gross generation of electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 through hydro,solar,wind and biomass;56hieved(2020)By 2030,19%of the energy consumed will come from power plants based on alternative energies(biomass,solar,wind and geothermal);209hieved(2020)25%of the renewable energy in the energy mix(solar,wind,hydro,biomass)by 2030;218hieved(2020)To increase the share of renewable energies in the electricity mix to 25%by 2035;263hieved(2020)30%renewable energy share in the electricity supply in 2025 and up to 50%in 2030;54hieved(2020)4.1CountryCubaDominicaDominican RepublicEgyptEUGrenadaGuyanaGuinea-BissauIndiaDescription24%of electricity generation based on renewable energy sources in Cuban electricity matrix by 2030(biomass 14%;wind solar PV 10%);89hieved(2020)100%renewable energy usage by 2030,principally from the harnessing of geothermal resources;25hieved(2020)Installation of 479 MW of solar PV power by 2030 at an estimated cost of USD 407.15 Mn;66hieved(2019)Installing renewable energy capacities to reach electric power contribution target of 42%by 2035;26hieved(2020)At least 32%renewable energy share in final energy consumption by 2030.Incorporation of 15 MW of renewable energy to the existing feeder line network by 2030;23hieved(2020)100%renewable electricity by 2025;13hieved(2020)Increase the share of renewable energies in the electricity mix to 58%by 2030,from hydro(40%)and rest from solar PV and wind;0hieved(2020)To achieve about 50%cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030;40hieved(2020)Global trends in Solar Power16CountryCountryDescriptionIsraelMauritiusMoroccoMyanmarNicaraguaOmanPapua New GuineaSamoaDescriptionTo increase the share of renewable power generation to 20%in 2025 and 30%in 2030;27hieved(2020)against 2025 targets60%of energy needs to be produced from green sources by 2030;35hieved(2020)52%of the installed electric power from renewable sources,including 20%from solar energy,20%from wind energy and 12%from hydraulic energy by 2030;35hieved(2020)To increase the total share of renewable energy(solar and wind)to 53.5%by 2030,;90hieved(2020)To increase the percentage of electricity generation through renewable energy sources such as solar,wind and biomass to 60%by 2030,with respect to the year 2007;91hieved(2020)To raise the penetration of renewable energy in the energy mix to 20%in 2030;2hieved(2020)To increase levels of renewables in the energy mix for on-grid connection through increasing the share of installed capacity of renewable energy from 30%in 2015 to 78%in 2030;35hieved(2020)To reach 100%renewable electricity generation by 2025;38hieved(2020)Sao Tome&PrincipeSaudi ArabiaSeychellesSri LankaSurinameTongaUnited Arab EmiratesVanuatuTo increase the use of renewable energy sources up to 49 MW,mainly from solar(32.4 MW),hydroelectric(14 MW)and biomass(2.5 MW);6hieved(2019)To increase the share of renewable energy to reach approximately 50%of the energy mix by 2030;0.1hieved(2020)To increase the renewable energy share in the electricity supply to 15%in 2030 using mainly wind and solar PV;78hieved(2020)To achieve 70%renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030;55hieved(2020)To maintain a share of electricity from renewable sources above 35%by 2030;146hieved(2020)70%of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2030 through combination of solar,wind and battery storage;20hieved(2020)National Energy Strategy 2050 envisages a 50%share of clean energy(renewables and nuclear)in the installed power capacity mix by 2050;9hieved(2020)To reach approximately 100%renewable energy in the electricity sector by 2030;29hieved(2020)Source:UNFCCC NDC registryGlobal trends in Solar Power17Increase in ambition of Renewable Energy Targets In the European Union-REPowerEUUntil 2022,Europe relied on the Russian Federation for 40%of its fossil gas and 27%of its imported oil valuedat around EUR 400 Bn a year.The conflict and resulting sanctions have raised concerns regarding energysecurity and energy costs that have put extremely high financial pressureon consumers and businesses.In response,the European Commission announced its REPowerEU strategy in March 2022 with the goal ofreducing Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022 and entirely by 2030.The strategy focuses onthree key topics,Securing non-Russian supplies of oil and gasExpanding the use of renewable energyImproving energy efficiencyIf the proposal is adopted,the European Unions 2030 target for renewables would increase from the current32%to 45%of the energy mix.The REPowerEU plan would bring total renewable energy generation capacityto 1,236 GW by 2030(including 600 GW solar PV and 510 GW wind),15%higher than the 1,067 GW envisagedunder Fit for 55.Source:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power18Box 1Policy and Regulatory TrendsAs in 2020,the power sector continued to receive the renewable energy policy attention in 2021.Policies to supportrenewables in the power sector include:renewable portfolio standards(RPS),feed-in policies(tariffs andpremiums),auctions and tenders,renewable energy certificates(RECs),net metering and other policies toencourage self-consumption,as well as fiscal and financial incentives(such as grants,rebates and tax credits).The major policy and regulatory trends to support solar energy deployment are described below,Key policiesDescriptionFeed-in Tariff(FIT)/Feed in Premiums PolicyFITs and FIPs,are used to promote centralised and decentralised renewable powergeneration,and they remain among the most widely used policy mechanisms forsupporting renewable power.Ireland,which had removed its FIT in 2015,re-introduced it to boost citizen andcommunity participation in the energy transition.Trinidad and Tobago introduced a FIT to support solar PV rooftop systems.Indias introduction of time-of-day(ToD)tariffs to incentivize solar powergeneration during peak demand periods.Australias solar feed-in tariff(FIT)program is transitioning to competitive tenders,promoting cost-effective solar energy deployment.Developers now submit tariffproposals,and contracts are awarded to projects with the most competitive rates.Renewable energy auctions or tendersIt is a competitive process to procure low cost Auctions for renewable energy offera competitive way to buy cheap power from renewable sources.In 2021,anumber of nations held national or subnational renewable energy auctions ortenders,as shown in the figurebelow:Auction-based solar projects promote competition among developers,leading tocost reductions,increased efficiency,and better value for money.It opens opportunities for price discovery,ensuring selection of the mosteconomically competitive projects as well as lessens the subsidy burden on thegovernment for deployment of largescale solar energy projects.7176728182858584838392364655606473839810911613102040608010012014020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Number of countriesRenewable Energy Feed-in Tariffs and TendersFeed-in tariff/premium paymentTenderingSource:REN21,20224.2Global trends in Solar Power19Key policiesDescriptionNet meteringNet metering continued to be a popular policy instrument to support renewableenergy i.e.for rooftop solar segmentNet metering is a regulated arrangement in which electricity generators canreceive credits for excess generation,which can be applied to offset consumptionin other billing periods.Under net metering,customers receive credit at the levelof retail electricity price.In India,Kerala introduced a new net metering rooftop programme with a goal ofinstalling solar panels on 75,000 homes and West Bengal introduced net meteringfor household rooftop solar PV between 1 kW and 5 kW.Malaysia introduced a new programme that allows residential customers to exportsurplus solar generation to the grid.Financial/fiscal policies(grants,rebates and tax credits)At a global level,approximately 17 countries introduced new financial or fiscalpolicies in 2021,including Denmark,France,Italy,Australia and New Zealand.In Europe,Croatia implemented an USD 8.4 bn rebate programme for rooftopsolar PV installations for businesses and households.Sweden made available USD 28.7 Mn in rebates for households who install solarPV.Renewable portfolio standards(RPS)RPS mandates requiringutility to install/use a certain share of renewable energy.As of 2021,31 US states and the District of Columbiahad legally binding RPS.Colombia introduced an obligation for utilities operating in the wholesale energymarket to ensure that 10%of the electricity they distribute is generated byrenewable technologies as of 2022.Renewable energy certificate(REC)A certificate awarded to certify the generation of renewable energy(typically 1 MWhof electricity).RECs are preferredinstrument to meet renewable energy obligations.Global trends in Solar Power20Key Solar Policies in ISA Member CountriesS NoCountriesFITRPSRECAfrica1Algeria2Benin3Botswana4Burkina Faso5Burundi6Cameroon7Cape Verde8Chad9Comoros10DR Congo11Cote dIvoire12Djibouti13Egypt14Equatorial Guinea15Eritrea16Ethiopia17Gabon18Gambia19Ghana20Guinea21Guinea-Bissau22Liberia23Madagascar24Malawi25Mali26Mauritius27Morocco28Mozambique29Namibia30Niger31Nigeria32RwandaS NoCountriesFITRPSREC33Sao Tome Principe34Senegal35Seychelles36Somalia37South Sudan38Sudan39Tanzania40Togolese Republic41Tunisia42Uganda43Zambia44ZimbabweAsia-Pacific45Australia46Bahrain47Bangladesh48Cambodia49Fiji50India51Japan52Kiribati53Maldives54Marshall islands55Myanmar56Nauru57Nepal58Oman59Palau60Papua New Guinea61Samoa62Saudi Arabia63Sri Lanka64Syria65TongaExisting policies/schemesAbsence of policies/schemesNote:FIT-Feed-in Tariff;RPS-Renewable portfolio standards;REC-Renewable Energy Certificate Global trends in Solar Power21Key Solar Policies in ISA Member CountriesS NoCountriesFITRPSREC66Tuvalu67United Arab Emirates68Vanuatu69YemenEurope&others70Denmark71France72Germany73Greece74Hungary75Israel76Italy77Luxembourg78Netherlands79Norway80Sweden81UK82USALatin America&Caribbean83Antigua and Barbuda84Argentina85Barbados86BelizeS NoCountriesFITRPSREC87Bolivia88Brazil89Chile90Costa Rica91Cuba92Dominica93Dominican Republic94El Salvador95Grenada96Guyana97Haiti98Jamaica99Nicaragua100Paraguay101Peru102Saint Kitts and Nevis103Saint Vincent and the Grenadines104Saint Lucia105Suriname106Trinidad and Tobago107VenezuelaMajor Policy gaps and Challenges 1.Facilitate permitting for utility-scale systems-Lengthy and complicated permitting processes are one of themajor challenges to the faster deployment of utility-scale solar PV plants in many parts of the world,especially inEurope.Developing clear rules and pathways for developers applying for a construction permit,determining stricttimeframes for application processing,and public engagement in the identification of land suitable for investmentcould significantlyaccelerate solar PV deployment.2.Establish a balanced policy environment for distributed PV-Appropriate policies are needed to attractinvestment into distributed solar PV while also securing sufficient revenue to pay for fixed network assets andensuring that the cost burden is allocated fairly among all consumers.Existing policies/schemesAbsence of policies/schemesNote:FIT-Feed-in Tariff;RPS-Renewable portfolio standards;REC-Renewable Energy Certificate;Source:REN21,2022 Global trends in Solar Power22A Renewable PolicyTransition in ChinaChina has shifted its renewable energy pricing policy from a premium FIT model to a“grid parity”model whererenewable and coal plants sell electricity at the same price.The National Energy Administration stoppedapproving FITs for renewable energy projects in 2018,which was followed by a decision to phase out FITschemes.The move was driven by delay in FIT payments and by the plungingcost of PV modules.The policy transition resulted annual solar PV installations to fall approximately 30%in 2019.However,asprosumers sought to benefit from the final years of FIT,the market grew 60%in 2020,to reach 55 GW of newinstallations in 2021.In 2021,China announced its 14thFive-Year-Plan,puts a continued focus on wind and solar PV power as well asenergy integration and energy storage,aiming for a 20%non-fossil fuel share in the energy mix by 2025.Chinasrecently announced targets for carbon neutrality by 2060 have also driven demand for renewables.Source:REN21,2022 Global trends in Solar Power23Fossil Fuel Subsidies are back on the rise Global ScenarioAccording to IEA,energy subsidies have been rising since 2021 after a noticeable dip in 2020 due to the Covidpandemic.In 2021,rebounding fossil fuel prices and energy had already lifted fossil fuel consumption subsidiesto USD 532 billion,around 20ove 2019s pre-pandemic levels.At a global level,Russia was the largest single provider of fossil fuel subsidy payments,followed by Iran andChina in 2021.According to the IEA,subsidies for the use of fossil fuels increased to more than USD 1 Tn in 2022,by far the highest yearly value ever recorded.In 2022,the cost of fossil fuels experienced significant fluctuations and reached exceptionally high levels due togeopolitical tensions affecting energy markets.Various policy measures were implemented to shield consumersfrom skyrocketing prices.However,these interventions had an unintended consequence of maintaining theartificial competitiveness of fossil fuels compared to low-emission alternatives.Source:IEA,2022Box 3Box 2Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is a crucial element for successful clean energy transitions,as highlighted inthe Glasgow Climate Pact.Fossil fuel consumption is subsidized due to end-user prices being high enough to cover the market value ofthe fuel.During an energy crisis,governments prioritize shielding consumers from price impacts rather thancommitting to phasing out subsidies.This approach led to a significant increase in fossil fuel consumption subsidies in 2022 and theimplementation of measures to mitigate the impact on energy bills.While this provided temporary relief,it reduced the incentive for consumers to save or transition to cleanerenergy sources,thus delayinga sustainable resolution of the crisis.Moreover,these subsidies depleted public funds that could have been allocated to other areas,includingclean energy transitions.30,80826,94927,20840,60133,62429,59347,44963,90843,29447,94040,25332,68820,60040,93815,88313,40130,86937,68421,79210,38327,04211,4416,6958,76416,09712,9799,34023,5779,6126,97613,42817,64211,8455,20921,00211,9389,2358,3948,5896,3034,82517,4690200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002000002015201620172018201920202021Million USDFossil Fuel Subsidies in ISA Member CountriesIndiaSaudi ArabiaEgyptAlgeriaVenezuelaUnited Arab EmiratesSource:IEA,2022Global trends in Solar Power24Solar PV Technology TrendsTaking advantage of the growing solar PV capacity across the globe,several countries are underway to stimulatefuture market growth,exploring innovative solar technologies from bifacial solar cells and floating solar farms tothe energy harvesting trees.The major developments are as follows.TechnologiesDescriptionBifacial solar cellsKey features:Bifacial solar panels can generate up to 30%more energy than monofacialpanels.Bifacial modules have also lower Balance of Systems(BOS)costs as fewer modulesare needed to produce the same amount of energyas traditional modules.Worldwide demand of bifacial modules has also raised,with countries such as the UnitedStates,Brazil and the UnitedKingdom increasingly use these modules for utility scalePhotovoltaic plants.Based on the present market trend,bifacial solar modules are extending their geographicalreach from Japan,Europe to the emerging markets across the globe.Bifacial solar moduleshave attracted a lot of market attention in the recent years.The International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic(ITRPV)predicts that after havinga minimal presence in 2017,the bifacial concept is expected to capture approximately 10%of the market share in 2018,increase to 15%by 2020,and potentially reach 40%withinthe next decade(IRENA,2019).Solar treesIn solar tree,the solar modules are planted on a single pillar,which resembles like a treetrunk.Solar tree serves the dual purpose of being an energy generator as well as anartwork.Solar trees serve as a complementary option to rooftop solar,offering ergonomicadvantages over traditional solar panels.They require around 100 times less spacecompared to horizontal solar plants while generating an equivalent amount of electricity.This makes solar trees a viable solution for economies facing challenges of limited land andspace availability.4.3Global trends in Solar Power25The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-Central Mechanical EngineeringResearch Institute(CSIR-CMERI)residential colony in Durgapur is now home to theworlds largest solar tree,developed by CSIR-CMERI.With an installed capacity of 11.5kW,this solar tree can generate an annual clean power output of approximately12,000-14,000 units.The design of the solar tree ensures maximum sunlight exposure for each of itsapproximately 35 solar PV panels,minimizing shadow areas below.Unlike rooftop solarfacilities,the solar trees arms holding the panels are flexible and adjustable accordingto specific needs,providing an additional advantage.Source:CSIR-CMERI WebsiteIndia develops Worlds largest Solar TreeBox 4TechnologyDescriptionSolar carportsSolar carports are ground-mounted solar panels that are installed in the vehicle parkinglots.Home driveways can also be laid underneath to form a carport.Solar Carports are very popular alternative and supplement to the classic rooftopsystems,with the benefit that the solar carports can be installed entirely independent ofthe roof angle,shape and orientation of the house.Besides providing the shade to the vehicles parked underneath,they can efficientlygenerate electricity and offers a number of benefits.If solar carports are coupled with awell-designed charging system,the electricity produced can be used for EV charging thusreducing the costs of running the vehicle.An elevated solar carport track the sun throughout the day,can generate 50-70%moreenergy than fixed solar carport systems of similar size and they are becoming a strongand attractive economic proposition in a growing number of markets.Finally,space saving is another important aspect,as carports make better utilisation ofland which is already in use for the vehicle parking rather than using an open land.The energy generation data from the solar tree can be monitored either real-time/ondaily basis.The Solar Tree can also have certain customizable features for application atdiverse sites.The Solar Trees are designed in a manner to ensure minimum ShadowArea,thus potentially making it available for widespread usage in the agriculturalactivities such as,e-Tractors and e-Power Tillers and High Capacity Pumps.Solar Trees can be aligned with Agriculture for substituting price-volatile fossil fuels.EachSolar Tree has the potential to save 10-12 tonnes of CO2emissions being released intothe atmosphere as GHG when compared with fossil fuel fired energy generation.Besides,the surplus generated power can be incorporated into the energy grid.ThisAgricultural Model can provide a constant economic return and support the farmers tocounter the effects of the uncertain variation in agriculture related activities,thuscreating farming an Economic&Energy Sustainable practice.The solar tree has the capability to include IOT based features,i.e.round-the-clock CCTVsurveillance in agricultural fields,wind speed,rainfall prediction,real-time humidity,andsoil analytics sensors.Source:Ministry ofScienceand Technology(India),2016Tata Motors and Tata Power inaugurate Indias largest Solar Carport at its Car Plant in PuneTata Motors and Tata Power jointly inaugurated Indias largest grid-synchronized solarcarport at the Tata Motors car plant in Chikhali,Pune.The 6.2 MW solar carportdeployed by Tata Power will generate 86.4 lakh kWh of electricity per year and isestimated to decrease 7,000 tonnes of carbon emissions annually and 1.6 lakh tonnesover its lifecycle.Global trends in Solar Power26Box 5TechnologyDescriptionFloating solar farms/floatovoltaicsFloatovoltaics refer to the photovoltaic solar power systems that float on dams,reservoirs and other water bodies.These floating photovoltaic panels generate large amount of electricity,and the bestpart is,that they dont use any space on real estate/land.Due to the cooling effect of water,these floating solar cells generate more power by upto 10%.However,floating solar PV also faces some challenges such as feasible siteselection,rusting due to moisture and high cost as compared to conventional solarplants.Besides producing electricity,these floatovoltaics are also beneficial in watermanagement by reducing water loss due to evaporation.Spanning over to 30,000 square meters,the solar carport will not only generategreen power,but will also provide covered parking for cars in the plant.Also,Tata Power Solar commissioned solar carport with 2.67 MW of capacity atCochin International Airport.The project comprised of8,472 solar panels on 27carports spread over 20,289 square meter of area.Benefits:Offsets 1,868 tonnes ofCO2at Cochin International Airport per annum,equivalent to 46,700 tonnes ofCO2offset in 25 years.The plant generates 11,000 units of electricity daily.Source:TataPowerWebsiteHybrid Hydropower and Floating Solar PV systems in ChinaThe development of the grid connected hybrid systems that combine floating solarphotovoltaic and hydropower technologies is still at an early stage.Only a small systemof 218 kWp has been deployed in Portugal.In 1989,the Longyangxia hydropower plant was commissioned with the four turbines of320 MW each 1,280 MW in total.It serves as the frequency regulation and major loadpeaking power plant in Chinas northwest power grid.The associated Gonghe solar plant is 30 kms away from the Longyangxia hydropowerplant.The initial phase was built&commissioned in 2013 with a nameplate capacity of320 MW.An additional 530 MWp was completed in 2015.The Photovoltaic plant is directlyconnected through a reserved330 kV transmission line to the hydropower substation.The hybrid system is operated so that the energy generation of the hydro and FloatingSolar Photovoltaic components complement each other.After the solar Photovoltaic wasincluded,the grid operator began to issue a higher power dispatch set point during theday.Global trends in Solar Power27Box 6TechnologyDescriptionAgrophotovoltaic(APV)As expected,on a typical day the output from the hydro facility is now decreased,especially from 11 a.m.to 4 p.m.,when solar Photovoltaic generation is high.The saved energy is requested by the operator to be utilised during the early morningand late night hours.Although the daily generation pattern of the hydropower hasvaried,the daily reservoir water balance could be maintained at the same level asbefore to meet the water requirementsof the other downstream reservoirs.All power produced by the hybrid system is fully absorbed by the grid,without anyreduction.This system shows that hydro turbines can provide adequate response todemand.Source:World Bank,2018Global trends in Solar Power28Fiji AgrophotovoltaicProject in OvalauIn order to reduce Fijis reliance on hydropower,the electricity output is becomingincreasingly volatile owing to irregular annual rainfall,this project aims to develop a 4MW solar PV power generation system that will boost local agricultural production,andto combine it with a 5 MW battery storage system.The total project value is USD 10million,including Green climate funds loan of USD 3.9 Mn and a USD 1.1 Mn grant.Source:IRENA,2022Box 7APV technology aligns with sustainable agriculture practices by utilizing landefficiently and promoting renewable energy generation in rural areas.APV systems can help farmers diversify income streams by generating electricityand potentially accessing additional revenue streams through renewable energyincentives.Research efforts are focused on understanding the agronomic impacts of APVsystems,exploring compatible crop combinations,and assessing the long-termsustainability of this integrated approach.The Agrophotovoltaics Resource-Efficient Land Use(APV-RESOLA)project,situatedin Germany near Lake Constance,has successfully demonstrated the APV concept.Theproject involved a 194 kW solar system mounted on a 5-meter-high structure aboveland used for cultivating celery,clover,potatoes,and winter wheat.The findingsconfirmed earlier research,with land use efficiency reaching 160%in 2017 and 186%in 2018(IRENA,2019).Italy included USD 1.24 Bn in support for agrovoltaics in its post-COVID recovery plan.Farmers are beginning to gain wider awareness of the benefits of agricultural PV including higher crop yields.TechnologyDescriptionSolar energy storageSolar energy storage systems stores solar energy during the day to utilise at night/duringperiods of low sunlight,reducing the need for grid electricity.There are several benefits of solar storage,including storing excess energy for use duringperiods of high demand,reducing reliance on the grid,and providing backup power in caseof an outage.Building-integrated photovoltaics(BIPV)Building-integrated photovoltaics are photovoltaic materials that are used to replaceconventional building materials in parts of the building envelope such as the roof,skylights,or facades.BIPV serves dual-purpose:they serve as both the outer layer of a structure andgenerate electricity for on-site use or export to the grid.The key benefits are:No unoccupied area requiredDecreased heat-transmittanceDecreased harmful irradianceSome of the constraints include:Higher capital cost for installationDifficult and expensive to retrofit older buildingsMore complex and requireshigh labour charges than normal PV modules installationGlobal trends in Solar Power29Maryland,U.S-Solar and Battery Storage for Customer and Ancillary ServicesSolar Grid Storage LLC provided 500 kW AC storage comprising about 300 kWh oflithium-ion batteries and inverter combination to the headquarters of Konterra inMaryland.The storage and inverter system are connected to the solar PV panels with400 kW capacity.The key objective of the Solar Grid Storage LLC is to provide both the customer and thegrid with multiple benefits.This includes fast-power balancing support to the local grid,backup emergencypower during grid outages and reduced system cost.The battery storage systems are connected to the local utility and can thus provide arange of ancillary services when required by the utility or grid operator through normaldispatch.Solar Grid Storage LLCs standard service is to provide the inverter and storagesystem at a very low cost.Solar Grid recovers these costs plus a profit margin through ancillary services provided tothe grid and paid by the grid operator.Thus,Solar Grid Storage LLC business modeleffectively utilises solar battery storage to capitalise on the regulatory markets forancillary services in the United States.Source:IRENA,2022Box 8Solar Supply Chain Trends This section focuses on the trends in the solar PV supply chain,bottlenecks and measures to build a more securesupply chain.For the solar PV technology,the main segments of the value chain include manufacturing ofequipment,construction and installation,and O&M,plus a range of support services,enabling functions andgovernance aspects.Manufacturing Construction and InstallationOperation and MaintenanceSolar Supply Chain-OverviewSource:IRENA,2022The solar PV manufacturing capacity shifted from Europe,the United States to China over the last decade.In 2022,China dominates the global solar PV supply chains.The global manufacturing capacity of solar PV jumped fromapproximately 25 GW(2010)to 220 GW(2022),with China accounting for 97%of the production.In addition,300GW of manufacturing capabilities have already been announced,underlying the willingness to prevent other actorsfrom gainingsignificant shares of the market.The Chinese market dominance reflects the ability of local companies to gain benefit from the economies of scale,and the government support which has set strategic long-term goals in the industry.Between 2017 and 2021,around half of the total Chinese production of PV modules has been delivered to Asia-Pacific regions and India while the other half delivered to Europe,with smaller amounts directed to Latin Americaand Caribbean and the rest of the world.4.4Global trends in Solar Power30Key determinants of solar supply chainRaw material availabilityManufacturing capacity and technologyMarket demand and growthPrice and cost dynamicsInnovation and research and developmentTrade policies and regulationsThe skewed geographical concentration in solar PV supply chain has led the European Union,India and theUnited States to introduce policy incentives to support domestic solar PV production.However,diversifyingsolar PV manufacturing will be possible only if the production costs reduce to ensure competitiveness withthe lowest-cost producers(like China)in both short and long term.China has infrastructure and industrial policies that built an integrated supply chain with large economies ofscale.Low labour cost is also a key enabler.Chinas industrial policies focusing on solar PV have enabledeconomies of scale and enabled continuous innovation throughout the supply chain.In 2021,Thailand,Vietnam and Malaysia have become manufacturing and assembly hubs,togetherrepresenting approximately 9%of cell and module production.Further Japan,India and Singapore accountfor 10.5%of cell and 7.6%of module production.Global trends in Solar Power3178.20.80.60%3.20%0.50%0.20.30%2.50%2.80%0.30%0.20%8.40%0 0Pp0 1020212027WafersChinaEuropeAsia-PacificRest of the World28.60y.20.20.40%8.00%2.40!.50%6.00%2.000.50%6.80%6.40%0 0Pp0 1020212027PolysiliconChinaEuropeAsia-PacificRest of the WorldSource:IEA,202255.70t.70s.90.80%2.80%2.00.70.40.70.80%7.10.40%0 0Pp0 1020212027ModulesChinaEuropeAsia-PacificRest of the World57.90.10y.50%7.30%0.60%0.70(.40.40%9.90%6.40%1.90%9.90%0 0Pp0 1020212027CellsChinaEuropeAsia-PacificRest of the WorldBased on the IEA Data and Statistics(2022),the previous,and expected solar PV manufacturing capacitybased on different technologies by region for the FY 2010,FY 2021 and 2027 provided below,Manufacturing activities accounted for 1.6 Mn of the PV jobs;construction andinstallation accounted for almost 1 Mn jobs,with O&M accounting for 0.8million jobs.Chinas dominant role in solar PV employment reflects its strong position asboth the dominant manufacturer of equipment and its commanding position incapacity installations.Supported by industrial policy measures,China is home to the bulk of the globalPV supply chain.Approximately 72%of global polysilicon production takes placein China,with massive expansion of capacity under construction or planned.Key Trends in Solar PV ManufacturingChinaIndiaThe Indian government imposed import duties of 40%on all modules and25%on all cells effective April 2022.The country also introduced a production-linked incentive(PLI)scheme toboost domestic manufacturing of high-efficiency modules.This offersfinancial support for project developers who commit to setting upproduction facilities along the supply chain.In 2021,the rising costs in China had knock-on effect on module prices.Indian PV imports sank to a low of approximately USD 500 Mn,down fromalmost USD 4 Bn in 2018.USAThe Inflation Reduction Act,passed in August 2022,embraces elements of abroader industrial policy.It includes manufacturing credits for clean energy,in addition to a long-termextension of existing solar and wind tax credits and many other climate andhealth provisions.A clean manufacturing tax credit alone could trigger approximately 1,15,000job-years(direct,indirect and induced jobs),and tax credits for solar,windand battery manufacturingcould create another 5,61,000 jobs.Global trends in Solar Power32In the past year,rising global commodity prices have led to higher material costs for solar PV manufacturing.Today,China and ASEAN countries(Viet Nam,Thailand and Malaysia)have the lowest solar PV module manufacturing costsfor all segments of the supply chain.Economies of scale,supply chain integration,relatively low energy costs andlabour productivity make China the most competitive solar module manufacturer worldwide.Higher investment costsin India are the primary reason for the cost differential with China,while higher overhead and labour costs makes USPV manufacturing not as competitive.In Europe,rising energy prices following Russias invasion of Ukraine widened the cost gap with China.Today,EUindustrial energy prices are more than triple those of China,India and the United States.The solar PV manufacturing supply chain is influenced by factors such as land,energy,capital,and labor.However,government industrial policies play a critical role in shaping viable supply chains.Polysiliconproduction requires significant capital investments and skilled labor.Solar cell manufacturing relies on access tomodern production equipment and skilled machine operators.Module production,focused on assembly,requires less technical skill compared to cell fabrication.Diversifying solar PV supply chains requires addressing key challenges-The cost competitiveness of existingsolar PV manufacturing is a key challenge to diversify supply chains.China is the most cost-competitive countryto manufacture components of the solar PV supply chain.Costs in China are 20%lower than in the UnitedStates,10%lower than in India and 35%lower than in Europe.Large variations in labour,and investmentexplain these variations.In the absence of manufacturing support and financial incentives,the bankability ofmanufacturing projects remains limited outside China and few countries in Southeast Asia.Low-cost electricity is a key enabler for the competitiveness of the solar PV supply chain.Electricity accountsfor over 40%of production costs for polysilicon and 20%for ingots/wafers.Solar panel manufacturers can alsouse their own renewable electricity on site,thereby reducing both electricity bills and emissions.Government policies are vital to build a more secure solar PV supply chain-High commodity prices andsupply chain bottlenecks resulted in the increase of 20%in solar panel prices over the last year.Globally,policies to support solar PV have focused mostly on increasing demand and lowering costs.However,sustainable and resilient supply chains are needed to ensure timely and cost-effective delivery ofsolar panels.Governments need to turn their attention to ensuring the security of solar PV supplies as anintegral part of clean energytransition.Global trends in Solar Power33Solar PV Cost TrendsOne of the key trends in the solar PV industry in 2023 is the continued decline in the cost of componentsrequired for solar panel installations,such as solar cells and inverters.This is due to the increased manufacturingefficiency,advances in technology and economies of scale.Manufacturers have become more efficient in theirsolar PV production processes,leading to produce solar panels at a much faster pace.Advances in technologyhave led to manufacturing of solar cells and inverters at a lower cost.The economies of scale have resulted inthe cost-effective production of solar panels in larger quantities.The figure below depicts the key driversinvolved in reducing the price of solar panels,Technology improvements that have reduced system losses have played a vital role.The recent adoptiontowards an increased use of bifacial modules has increased the performance of the solar panel by generatingmore energy(than mono-facial panels).Further,solar PV module prices return to the downward curve they were following prior to the covid-19pandemic,as polysilicon supply becomes more abundant.The raw material and shipping costs decline in 2023also has a direct impact on solar component prices.Advances in technology1Manufacturing efficiency2Economies of scale3Global trends in Solar Power34Key factors influencing price of Solar PV Modules Source:IEA,2020Solar PV Module Price TrendKey factors influencing price of Solar PV Modules Technological advancements:The continuous improvement in solar cell efficiency,manufacturing processes,and material utilizationhas led to cost reductions and increased module output,resulting in lower prices.Scale of production:As the solar industry expanded and production volumes increased,economies of scalekicked in.Larger manufacturing capacities allowed for bulk purchasing of raw materials and equipment,reducing production costs,and driving down module prices.Policies and incentives:Various policies,such as feed-in tariffs,tax credits,and subsidies,have played asignificant role in driving demand for solar PV installations.These incentives have stimulated market growth,increased competition,and ultimatelyled to price reductions.Reduction in manufacturing costs:Over time,manufacturers have optimized production processes,improved yield rates,and reduced manufacturing costs.Factors such as automation,economies of scale,andincreased competition among manufacturers have contributed to cost savings and subsequently lower moduleprices.Supply and demand dynamics:Fluctuations in supply and demand have influenced module prices.Increaseddemand has strained the supply chain at times,resulting in temporary price spikes.Conversely,oversupplysituations have led to price declines.Raw material prices:The prices of key raw materials used in solar PV modules,such as silicon,silver,andaluminium,have experienced fluctuations.Changes in these material costs can impact module prices,althoughtechnological advancementsand manufacturingefficiencies have helped mitigatethe impact.Trade policies and tariffs:Trade policies,including import duties and tariffs,have affected the price of solarPV modules.Imposition of tariffs on module imports has disrupted the supply chain and increased prices insome instances.Balance of system costs:The components beyond the module itself,such as inverters,mounting structures,and installation costs,it has an indirect impact on module prices.As the balance of system costs decreaseddue to technological advancements and market competition,it created downward pressure on overall systemprices,including modules.Research and development(R&D)investments:Investments in solar PV research and development havedriven technological advancements and innovation.R&D initiatives have led to the discovery of new materials,manufacturingtechniques,and cell designs,all of which have contributed to price reductions over time.Global market dynamics:Changes in the global solar PV market,including the emergence of new markets,regional variations in demand,and geopolitical factors,have influenced module prices.Market dynamics impactthe balance of supply and demand,which in turn affectsprices.USD 0.2 per WattSolar Market TrendsThe rise of increasingly cost-effective energy storage combined with greater demand-side flexibility and theexpansion of transmission infrastructure is making it possible for regions to transition to fully renewable-basedpower systems.Another factor enabling the transition to solar-based energy systems is the improvement in theelectricity access rates,especially in the off-grid areas.The figure below highlights the share of the population withaccess to electricity in 2020 across ISA Member Countries,Status of Access to Electricity(%)ISA Member Countries44%0dEe0%By the end of 2020,91%2of the global population had access toelectricity.In Asia&Pacific,access to electricity reached 92.9%in 2020,Europe and others(100%),Latin America(96.4%).In Africa,access to electricity rates almost tripled from approximately 8Mn between 2000 and 2013 to 24 Mn people between 2014 and 2019.The population without electricity access,peaked at 613 Mn in 2013,declined progressively to 572 Mn in 2019.Much of this transition camefrom countries such as Kenya,Senegal,Rwanda,Ghana and Ethiopia,while more than 40%of Sub-Saharan African countries do not yet haveofficial electricity access targets.Most of the gap in electricity access can be attributed to the countrieswhere population growth has outpaced the electrification rate,such asBurundi,Chad,Malawi and Democratic republic of Congo.Thesecountries should effectively utilise the natural solar potential toimprove the electricity access rates.The figure below highlights thesolar radiation availability across ISA Member countries,Source:World Bank,20202 IRENA,20224.5ISA Member Countries with lowest Electricity Access(%)AfricaBenin41.4%Burkina Faso 18.9%Burundi11.7%Chad11.1%DR Congo19.1%Guinea 44.7%Guinea Bissau33.3%Madagascar33.7%Malawi14.9%Mali50.6%Mozambique30.6%Niger19.3%South Sudan7.2%Source:World Bank,2020Global trends in Solar Power35Distributed Renewables for Energy Access(DREA)systems are renewable-based systems(stand-alone off-gridsystems)that can generate and distribute energy independently of a centralised electricity grid.DREA systemsprovide a wide range of services including cooking,lighting,space heating and cooling in the urban and rural areasof the developing world.DREA system represents an essential solution for fulfilling modern energy needs and also improving the livelihoodsof hundreds of millions of people presently lacking access to electricity/clean cooking solutions.Stand-alone systems and Mini-grids are considered as the least cost option for providing access to electricity tonearly half of the population in Sub-SaharanAfrica by 2030.Distributed Renewables for Energy AccessFurther,to improve the electricity access rates across Africa and other such regions with lower access rates,Distributed Renewables for Energy Access(DREA)could be a possible solution.Global Horizontal Irradiation(GHI)in kWh/m2/day ISA Member CountriesSource:Global Solar Atlas,2020The figures from the Global Solar Atlas from World Bank reveal the average potential of solar energy around theworld and this infographic shows the solar advantage of African countries many of which are ISA MemberCountries.The reality is that most of these nations have not yet taken action to utilise this advantage.Approximately,20%of the global population living in 70 countries possess excellent conditions for solar.A significant quantum of solar energy potential in Africa is still untapped and represents a unique opportunityto provide affordable,reliable,and sustainable electricity services to a large share of population whereimproved economic opportunities and quality of life are the most needed.In Benin,Burkina Faso,Fiji,Papua New Guinea,Rwanda,Samoa,Tanzania and Vanuatu at least 9%of thepopulation has benefited from off-gridsolar lightingsystems.5.4 4.54.4 3.16.3 5.53.0 2.4(Unit:kWh/m2/day)Global trends in Solar Power36Top 5 ISA Member Countries with highest Electricity Access(%)from Distributed Renewable Energy Solutions,20222%4%3%5%5%6%4%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%NepalRwandaVanuatuFijiBangladeshShare of population connected to solar PV mini-gridsShare of population using solar home systems(11-50 W)Share of population using solar home systems(50 W)Source:REN21,2022For distributed renewable energy systems for energy access,Micro-grid typically refers to an independent gridnetwork operating on a scale of less than 10 kW power,while the mini grids are designed to generate 10 kW ormore power using renewable energy that distributes electricity to a limited number of customers.Unliketraditional grid systems,microgrids are decentralized and located close to the area they serve.Microgrids canserve as a supplement to a larger,connected grid system or as a stand-alone power source.1.Solar Micro grids/Mini gridsGlobal trends in Solar Power37Solar PV mini-grids are the preferred technology for providing electricity access across Africa and Asia.The globalinstalled capacity of solar mini-grids totalled 365 MW in 2019.The graph below shows the region-wise trend oftotal installed capacity of mini-gridsin ISA Member countries,Source:IRENA,2021The figure below shows the top 5 ISA Member countries with highest electricity access rate from off-grid solar solutions(solar home systems and mini-grids)in 2019.2.12.84.68.19.874.2246.7262.0280.4283.716.72419.36924.93531.10938.34550.00750.73256.03360.02860.271.3792.1032.2492.2492.2534.1314.72616.67517.94917.9490.0120.0120.0170.0170.0173.7673.7673.7673.7673.7670.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.02010201120122013201420152016201720182019Region-wise Trend of Installed Capacity in Solar Mini-grids(MW)AfricaAsiaLatin Americ&CaribbeanMiddle EastIn West Africa,Nigeria has one of the worlds largest mini-grid support programmes under the Nigeria ElectrificationProject(NEP)and aims to electrify 300,000 households and 30,000 local enterprises through private sector-drivensolar-hybrid mini-gridsby 2023.Nigerias Rural Electrification Authority commissioned several installations in 2020,including two solar-hybrid mini-grids(totalling 135 kW)developed by Renewvia Energy and a 234 kW solar-hybrid mini-grid installed by a localdeveloper to power nearly 2,000 households.In 2021,the Authority signed agreements with Husk Power to buildseven mini grids providing over 5,000 new connections.Global trends in Solar Power38Energy Access in the Health Sector-NigeriaRenewable energy solutions have supported the provision of health care and other essential services,especially sincethe start of the COVID-19 pandemic.Solutions range from small-scale off-grid installations for unelectrified ruralclinics,to larger,steady power delivery services for urban clinics that house crucial medical devices but are subject tounreliable grids.During the pandemic,there has been a particular focus on cold chains to keep COVID-19 vaccineschilled from production to delivery.These cold storage facilities require a 24/7 power supply,which has come fromhybrid solar/diesel,battery/inverter systems or direct-drive solar refrigerators.During 2020 and 2021,a variety of initiatives included mini gridsand microgrids in the health sector:Nigerias Rural Electrification Agency developed several solar mini-grids for use at hospitals and other healthcarefacilities as an emergency response to COVID-19.Health facilities also were a focus of several other donor-drivenmini-gridinitiatives.Power Africa,funded by the US Agency for International Development,directed USD 4.1 million in grants to off gridcompanies in 2020 to electrify health clinics in rural and peri-urban areas throughmini-grids.Source:REN21,2022Box 9Solar PV for Electricity Access-ChadAt a global level,Chad has one of the lowest electricity access rates.As of 2019,approximately 8%of the populationin the country had electricity access,with a significant gap between urban(20%)and rural(1%)areas.Apart from 1 MW wind power plant in the country,electricity is supplied only by generators,which break downregularly.The energy situation affects quality of life and hinders socio-economic development,especially in Chadssecond largest city,Abch.With 80,000 inhabitants,the city remains unconnected to the national grid and hasstruggledto develop its infrastructurebecause of security challenges.InnoVent,the French renewable energy firm has developed Chads first solar power plant in Abch.The pilot phaseof the plant(1 MW)was built between 2020 and November 2021,with soldiers providing security for both personneland equipment.In 2021,the first electricity was delivered to the national grid in the country.Source:REN21,2022Box 104.75.88.716.929.647.768.586.0107.2133.450.967.995.4133.0161.6177.6178.5204.4196.3209.10.60.60.91.82.11.82.55.84.94.92010201120122013201420152016201720182019Region-wise Trend of Installed Capacity in Solar Lights&Home Systems(MW)AfricaAsia&PacificLatin America&CarribeanGlobal trends in Solar Power39Source:IRENA,20212.Solar Lights and Solar Home Systems(SHS)The Solar home systems are off-grid solar systems,rated at 11 watts(W)and above,that can be usedfor lighting and to power small electrical appliances.As of 2020,100 Mn people had gained access tobasic residential electricity services through the use of solar lighting and solar home systems.In 2019,SHS supplied electricity to approximately 8 Mn people in Bangladesh,4.4 Mn people in Indiaand 3.4 Mn people in Kenya.In Asia&Pacific,the installed capacity of solar lights and SHS increased from 51 MW in 2010 to 209MW in 2019,followed by Africa with 4.6 MW in 2010 to reach 133.4 MW in 2019 and Latin America&Caribbean with only 0.6 MW in 2010 to reach 4.9 MW in 2019.The graph below shows the region-wise trend of total installed solar lights and home systems.Nigeria supports 5 Million SHS/Mini grid connections serving upto25 Million customers under the Solar Power Naija InitiativeTo help the economic recovery in response to the COVID-19 pandemic,the Nigerian government has launchedan initiative as part of the Economic Sustainability Plan to achieve the roll-out of 5 Million new solar basedconnections in the communities that are not grid connected.The Solar Connection Intervention Facility willsupplement the governments effort for providing affordable power to underserved rural communities throughthe provision of long term low-interest credit facilities to the Nigerian Electrification Project NEP,assemblers/manufacturers of solar components and off-grid energy retailers in the country.The 5 Million SolarPower Naija connection scheme is a Federal government initiative that aims to,i.Expand energy access to 25 Mn individuals(5 million new connections)through the provision of solarhome systems/connection to the mini-gridii.Increase local content in the off-grid solar value chain and also facilitate the growth of the localmanufacturingindustry.iii.Incentivize the formation of 250,000 new jobs in the energy sector.Source:Rural Electrification Agency of Nigeria WebsiteBox 11Solar Home Systems with Micro Credits in BangladeshRural electrification through solar PV technology is becoming more popular day by day in Bangladesh.SolarHome Systems are decentralized and are particularly suitable for inaccessible and remote areas.Under the“Rural Electrification Program”of the Government of Bangladesh,about 3 Mn SHS have beeninstalled in the last 16 years.Of these 3 Mn,around 1.5 Mn were installed by the Grameen Shakti since 1996.Grameen Shakti focuses on the off-grid rural areas.Grameen Shakti is also promoting the small Solar HomeSystem to target the low-income rural households.Solar Home System can be used to light up shops,homes and fishing boats etc.It can also be used to chargecellular phones as well as to run radios,televisions,and cassette players.Solar Home Systems have becomeincreasingly popular among users because they present an attractive alternative to conventional electricity.Advantages include no monthly bills,no fuel costs,very low repair and maintenance costs,easy installationanywhere,etc.Solar Home Systems installed by the Grameen Shakti has had a beneficial impact on ruralhouseholds.Grameen Shakti has introduced a micro utility model to reach the poorer people in rural areas who cannotafford SHS separately.More than 1.5 Mn SHS have been installed in Bangladesh through the microcredit systemprovided by the Grameen Shakti.Making it possible to charge mobile phones with SHS provides new access tomore reliable telecommunication in off-gridareas.Around 10 Mn people are getting benefits from the systems,and several tonnes of CO2are abated each year asone Solar Home System saves 0.2 tonne of CO2/yearfrom avoided kerosene use.Source:International Network for Sustainable Energy Website3.Solar PumpsIn developing countries,most of the population depends on agriculture for living and the agricultural sectorcontributes a significant share of the GDP.Unavailability of water for irrigation due to dependence on rain andabsence of affordable water pumps due to unavailability of electricity is a major challenge this sector is facing.Solar Pump is one of the proven technologies that aim to increase the yield of agricultural lands by making watersupply available in areas where the grid is not available.Bangladesh targets to deploy 50,000 solar pumps by 2025 and Morocco,100,000 by 2022.India also targeted toachieve a solar capacity of 30.8 GW by 2022 under the Kusum Solar Pump Scheme.Global trends in Solar Power40Box 121.52.63.24.25.06.58.39.212.813.312.612.615.220.351.9109.5181.6355.3537.8563.90.60.60.70.80.91.01.11.51.72.22010201120122013201420152016201720182019Region-wise Trend of Installed Capacity in Solar Pumps(MW)AfricaAsia&PacificLatin America&CarribeanThe graph below shows the region-wise trend of total installed capacity of solar pumps till 2019,consideringonly ISA Member countries.In Asia&Pacific,the installed capacity of solar pumps increased from 12.6 MW in 2010 and reached 564 MW in2019,followed by Africa with 1.5 MW in 2010 to reach 13.3 MW in 2019 and Latin America&Caribbean with0.6 MW in 2010 to reach 2.2 MW in 2019.Nearly 70%of Indias salt is made in the Rann of Kutch in Gujarat.The majority of 43,000 salt pan farmersutilise inefficient diesel powered water pumps for extracting brine from ground as part of salt harvestingprocess.The diesel accounts for a significant proportion of farmers production costs.In fact,farmers spend upto 40%of their annual revenue buying diesel for the next production season,thus reducing disposable income.Two pilot projects,carried out by the Self Employed Womens Association,have demonstrated that poweringpumps with solar energy can decrease production costs,increase reliability,efficiency and salt harvest outputs,resulting in the improved rural livelihoods.Annual savings for a farmer rose to INR 83,000-a 161%raise when compared to those using diesel-poweredpumps with additional benefits including reduced air pollution.Across the Kutch,replacing diesel water pumpswith solar and hybrid solar/diesel ones could potentially reduce CO2emissions by 115,000 tonnes.The multi-functional nature of solar panels also increases its value,particularly for the off-grid villages,enablingcomplementary uses such as powering the households.Interestingly,some salt traders-who usually loan salt-pan-worker money to purchase diesel for irrigation,have now acquired the solar pumps and are leasing themout to salt pan workers on an annual basis.In this manner,they are able to recover their investment in three years,while making the technology accessiblefor salt pan workers who now need not incur the capital costs of the system.Source:NRDC,2018Reducing Production Costs using Solar Pumps:IndiaGlobal trends in Solar Power41Box 13Source:IRENA,2021Solar PV Investment TrendsThe annual investments in renewable energy continued a positive trend in 2022.Global investment in renewablesreached USD 430 Bn in 2021 and in 2022 they further increased by 16%reaching almostUSD 0.5 Tn.Solar PV continued to dominate investment in 2022,accounting for 64%of the renewable energy investment.Thestrong growth in solar PV investment in 2021 expanded further in 2022,to reach approximately USD 308 Bn.Increasedmaturity and declining costs attracted investments in solar technologies,particularly in solar PV deployment,whichaccounts for approximately 90%of total solar investments between 2013-2020.The figure below represents theglobalinvestmenttrends across renewable energyand solar,4.6Source:IRENA,2022165142170138134162226308340263351322329348430499010020030040050060020152016201720182019202020212022USD BillionGlobal Investment in Solar(2015-2022)Solar PVRenewable energy42Global trends in Solar PowerThe increase in renewable energy investments has been driven by,1)Policy makers growing awareness of theimportance of renewable energy in fighting climate change,strengthening energy security and reducingdependence on volatile energy sources;2)Investors appetite for alternatives to balance out the volatility and risksof investments in fossil fuels.Regional HighlightsThe overall snapshot of the investment trends across renewables on regional basis is summarised below,Europe and othersIn Europe,the European Commission presented a Green Deal Industrial Plan,which would provide investment aidand tax breaks towards technological development,manufacturing,production and installation of net-zeroproducts in green sectors including renewables and hydrogen.The plan looks to mobilise EUR 225 Bn in loansfrom its existingRecovery and Resilience Facility,and an additional EUR 20 Bn in grants.Europe attracted USD 54 Bn in 2019 and USD 67 Bn in 2020(16%and 19%of the global total,respectively).As perIRENA,the investments reached USD 77 Bn in 2021,but dropped to USD 61 Bn in 2022.In 2020,investments in theregion grew by 24%compared to 2019,driven primarily by an threefold increase in the Netherlands and a fourfoldincrease in investments in the United Kingdom.Global trends in Solar Power43AfricaLatin America and CaribbeanAfrican region remains the major destination for off-grid renewables investment-Between 2010-2021,theregion attracted USD 2.2 Bn,more than 70%of global off-grid investments.Within Africa,the countries such asKenya,the United Republic of Tanzania and Rwanda attracted higherinvestments.Investment in these countries benefited from the existing mobile money ecosystem,which was leveraged by thepay-as-you-go(PAYGO)business model.Approximately 78%of the total commitments in off-grid renewablesbetween 2010-2021 involved the funding of projects using PAYGO,with East Africa accounting for USD 917 Mn.Asia and PacificAsia and Pacific region continues to attract the majority of global renewable energy investment of USD 170 Bn in2020.Investment in renewable energy has grown significantly in Viet Nam,which overtook Japan to become the second-largest destination in 2020,largely due to expiring of FIT policy.From 2013 to 2020,investment grew by an averageof 219%per year,rising from USD 47 Mn to USD 18.7 Bn.However,after the expiration of FIT,investmentsdeclined quickly from USD 18.7 Bn in 2020 to USD 9.7 Bn in 2021 to less than USD 4.7 Bn in 2022.The region attracted USD 137 Mn in off-grid renewable energy investments in 2019,led primarily by Myanmar.During 2020-2021,investments plummeted to USD 3 Mn,likely due to the pandemic and political developments.United States consistently attracted the majority of solar investments since 2013.In the United States,the 2022Inflation Reduction Act encompassing new tax credits,USD 30 Bn in grants and loans for clean energygeneration and storage,and USD 60 Bn in support of manufacturing of low-carbon components is expected toattract USD 114 Bn investment by 2031.Latin America and Caribbean region attracted 4.9%of global investments in 2020,followed by Asia and Africa.During 2018-2021,Latin America and Caribbean attracted USD 21 Mn,equivalent to less than 1.5%of cumulativecommitments over that period.The region has electricity access rates of more than 90%.With smaller shares of the population living in off-gridlocations,these regions represent relatively small markets for decentralised energy systems.Investment Trends in Vietnam and Thailand Vietnams rapid industrialisation has prompted a surge in energy demand.Much of this industrial growth hasbeen fuelled by foreign direct investment,as companies look to diversify their supply chains away from China.Rooftop solar installations in industrial parks have grown to meet these companies requirement for renewableenergy(and more climate-friendly products).The country has incentivised the growth of renewable energygeneration via FiTs in the solar industry.Tariffs for onshore and offshore wind were made more generous in2018 after poor initial uptake.Coal is still the primary source of electricity production in the country,thoughslow development of new plants led the government to pivot to solar(and later wind)along with gas to meetits risingenergy needs(Government of Vietnam,2016).In contrast,investment in neighbouring Thailand has been anaemic.This can be partly explained by differencesin the two countries stages of economic growth,and energy mixes,among other factors.While endowed withsimilar natural resources,economic growth in the 1990s helped Thailand set up a well functioning and robustpower supply.A subsequent decline in economic growth rates slowed energy demand significantly,andThailands demand now lags that of its rapidly industrialisingneighbour.Thailands Power Development Plan aims for a 10 GW expansion in solar PV capacity by 2037,whereasVietnam has targeted an additional 18 GW of solar PV capacity by 2030 and another 18 GW from wind power.With renewable energy growth in Thailand remaining tepid for the foreseeable future,private energy giantssuch as Super Energy Corp have been increasingly turning to foreign markets,including Vietnam,to fuelgrowth.Both Vietnam and Thailand have used generous FiTs to help grow the supply of renewable energy.However,Vietnams high energy demand and ambitious renewable energy targets have made FiTs a more effectivepolicy tool.Source:IRENA,2023Box 14Global trends in Solar Power44Solar PV Employment TrendsThe renewable energy sector employed 12.7 Mn people,directly and indirectly,in 2021.About two-thirds of alljobs are in Asia,and China accounts for 42%of the global total.It is followed by the European Union and Brazilwith 10ch,and the United States and India with 7ch.The number continued to grow worldwide overthe past decade,with most jobs in the solar PV,bioenergy,hydropower and wind power industries.In 2021,solar PV employed 4.3 Mn jobs,the fastest-growing sector,accounting for more than a third of the totalrenewable energy workforce.The figure below shows the Global Renewable energy employment trends by solaracross 2012-2021,7.38.59.510.010.110.511.111.512.012.71.42.32.52.83.13.43.73.84.04.3024681012142012201320142015201620172018201920202021Million JobsRenewables and Solar PV Employment(2012-2021)RenewablesSolar PVSource:IRENA,2022These employment trends are shaped by a multitude of factors,including investments,new and cumulativecapacities,and by a broad array of policy measures to enable renewable energy deployment,generate viablesupply chains and create a skilled workforce.The figure below highlights the Global renewable energyemployment in 2021 by technology,In 2021,Solar PV contributed to the highest number of jobs globally,followed by Bioenergy with 3.4 Mn jobs,Hydropower(2.4 Mn jobs),Wind(1.4 Mn jobs),Solar heating/cooling(0.8 Mn jobs).Considering solar PVemployment,China alone accounts for 63%of PV jobs3in 2021.Source:IRENA;2022*Others includes geothermal energy,CSP and Ocean energy3IRENA,20224.70.40.81.42.43.44.30.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0OthersSolar heating/coolingWindHydropowerBioenergySolar PVMillion jobsRenewable Energy Employment by Technology(2021)*Global trends in Solar Power45Based on the secondary data sources,solar PV employment(2021)in ISA Member Countries are captured below,S NoCountriesNumber of jobs(in thousand)1United States of America2552India2173Japan150.54Bangladesh1205Brazil115.26Germany51.37Australia358Nigeria34.29Uganda23.7910Netherlands20.111France17.63412Italy14.9813Chile12.214Ethiopia12.1815United Kingdom6.416United Arab Emirates5.117Israel518Greece3.668S NoCountriesNumber of jobs(in thousand)19Denmark3.3520Sweden3.121Egypt1.922Mali1.923Argentina1.3924Ghana1.23425Zambia1.226Rwanda1.07527Guinea128Morocco129Hungary0.72930Algeria0.531Namibia0.4632Peru0.3833Luxembourg0.2334Norway0.2235Nicaragua0.236Tunisia0.2Source:IRENA,2022From the above table,it can be seen that the United States of America is the top performer among ISA Membercountries in providing the solar PV employment to 255,000 workers followed by India and Japan.At a Global level,China accounted for about 2.7 Mn jobs(i.e.63%of PV employment worldwide).Asia Pacific countries host 79%ofthe worlds PV jobs,reflecting the regions continued dominance of manufacturing and strong presence ininstallations.The remaining jobs were in the Americas(7.7%of all jobs),Europe(6.8%)and the rest of the world(4.9%)4.Solar PV Employment in 2021:ISA Member Countries4 IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power46Renewable Energy Employment landscape in Vietnam&AustraliaVietnam is a major manufacturer,exporter and installer of PV cells and modules.Solar cell production rosefrom just 37 MW in 2014 to 3.75 GW;module output increased from 1.2 GW to 8.5 GW in 2021(WoodMackenzie,2022a).The breakneck expansion of domestic solar installations,triggered by high FITs,broughttotal capacity from 105 MW in 2018 to 17 GW in 2020.As a result,the countrys electricity grid became severely overloaded,leading to curtailments.Despite somegrid improvements,the domestic solar PV expansion came to an abrupt halt in 2021,and emphasis shifted tooff-gridrooftop deployment.The unprecedented installations in 2020 resulted in significant economic activity and job creation.More than ahundred new installation companies were set up in south-central Ninh Thuan province,which was home toaround 2.5 GW of installations in 2021.As installations shot up,Vietnams solar PV workforce rose to 1,26,300 jobs in 2020.In 2021,the lack ofinstallations apart from the rooftop additions has resulted in reduction of the workforce.In the Pacific,Australia completed some of its largest solar projects in 2021,according to the Clean EnergyCouncil(2022).New capacity additions included 3.3 GW of small-scalesolar and 1.2 GW of large-scalesolar.The Clean Energy Council reports another 9.3 GW worth of renewable energy projects under construction orfinancially committed at the end of 2021,representing over 35,000 jobs,including almost 21,000 in New SouthWales.Meanwhile,the federal governments bioenergy roadmap created some 26,200 full-time jobs.Thegovernment committed about AUD 464 Mn to the construction of seven regional hydrogen hubs,which mightcreate 1,30,000 jobs by 2030(Clean Energy Council,2022).Source:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power47Box 15Solar&Equity5Solar&Gender EquityThe inclusion of women in renewable energy weaves together SDG 5 on gender equality and womensempowerment whereas SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy.Gender equity refers to the provision of fairnessand justice in distribution of benefits and responsibilities between women and men.The energy industry has long been known for its male-dominated culture and unequal opportunities for womenscareer advancement.At a Global scenario,the share of women working full time in the solar PV industry is 40%,the highest share of anyrenewable energy sub-sector.40!%0 0P%Solar PVWindWomen in Wind&Solar PV industry,2021Most women in solar PV hold administrative jobs(58%),followed by non-STEM(science,technology,engineeringand mathematics)technical positions(38%).It is well reported that across the economy,in policy making andgovernance,womens presence on company boards and in senior management positions is low.According toIRENAs solar PV survey,women hold barely 30%of managerial jobs and 17%of senior management positions,faringbetter in solar PV compared to the wind power.58852%0 0PpministrationNon-STEM technicalOther Non-technicalSTEMWomen in Solar PV workforce 2021,by role30%8%0%5 %05%ManagementSenior managementWomen in Management positions in Solar PV and Wind energy,2021Solar PVWindSource:IRENA,2022Source:IRENA,20225Global trends in Solar Power49Therefore,while women are better represented in solar PV management than in other technologies and sectors,substantial efforts are needed to enable greater participation of women at all levels and to expand the skills andtalents needed to drive the transformation.Womens share of solar PV employment is smaller in Europe and others,Latin America and the Caribbean than inthe Asia-Pacific and Africa regions.In the solar PV sector,women are represented in administrative positionsacross the globe.The spread between womens shares in administration and in all other roles is mostpronounced in companies in the Asia-Pacific region.2738%0%5 %05E%Europe and othersLatin America&CarbbeanAfricaAsia PacificWomen in the Solar PV workforce,by regionSolar Sister Is Addressing Gender Equity and Climate Change-AfricaSolar Sister,a network of women entrepreneurs operating in multiple African countries,has enabled 3 millionindividuals to access clean energy as of 2022.What sets it apart is its dedication to empowering women inestablishing sustainable enterprises within their communities.The initiative recruits,trains,and supports female entrepreneurs,equipping them with off-grid solar productslike solar lighting.Solar Sisters efforts benefit rural communities by providing assistance,generating incomefor women entrepreneurs,and expanding the availability of clean energy sources.Since its establishment in 2010,Solar Sister has assisted over 7,000 entrepreneurs,distributed more than647,250 clean energy products,and impacted 3 million people.Energy equity is a crucial aspect of Solar Sisters mission.By offering economic opportunities to women,theprogram has facilitated the creation of clean energy businesses for over 6,800 entrepreneurs.A significant 86%of these businesses focus primarily on supporting women,although men are also involved to some extent.The products sold by Solar Sister entrepreneurs have successfully prevented the emission of over 946,763metric tonnes of CO2.Source:Solar SisterWebsiteBox 16Source:IRENA,2022Global trends in Solar Power50Victoria(Australia)launched a USD 11 Mn plan to subsidise 50%of the cost of apprenticeships,professional mentoringand ongoing education for women entering the renewables industry as electricians,plumbers and solar installers,etc.In Africa,the state-owned Ethiopia Electric Utility looks to employ 30%women by 2030 by providing scholarships andinternships in STEM(science,technology,engineeringand math)fields.Efforts towards Gender EquityBarbadosAlongside providing social assistance,the Barbadian government prioritizes the facilitationand support of womens entrepreneurship and business development as a means toaddress the increasing levels of unemployment,layoffs,and contribute to the economicrecovery efforts.In order to adhere to the overarching principle of global sustainable development,whichemphasizes the inclusion of all individuals,it is imperative that the climate finance strategyensures equitable representation of various aspects such as gender,indigenous communities,people with disabilities,and youth.BelizeBoliviaBolivia is committed to integrating a gender perspective into its Plurinational Policy for ClimateChange in order to address inequality gaps in various dimensions.This recognition stems from theunderstanding that climate change impacts women and men differently and acknowledges thecrucial role that women play in areas such as water management,agricultural production,food andenergy security,and community resilience.Therefore,Bolivia is dedicated to incorporating agender and intergenerational approach into its climate policy to ensure inclusivity and equality.Cambodia upholds four key measures:promoting gender equality,fostering innovation,ensuring inclusivity,and empowering women.CambodiaCape VerdeImplement the Gender and Energy Action Plan and provide support for the growth of localenterprises while actively encouraging economic opportunities for women,with a specific focuson the renewable energy sector.The Ministry of New&Renewable Energy(MNRE)has been actively promoting the involvement ofwomen in the renewable energy sector.Recently Women in Renewable Energy(RE):Call forAction was organized to recognize the contributions of women entrepreneurs and leaders in theRE sector and to chart a path for the future.To expedite this initiative,MNRE has established anempowered committee consisting of government officials,experts,and industry associations.IndiaGlobal trends in Solar Power51Financing for Women in SolarBarriers to Womens inclusion in the Solar SectorMultiple barriers limit womens ability to access energy technologies and participate in solar projects andprograms.A variety of pervasive factors interact at the individual,institutional,and societal levels that directlylimit womens inclusion in the sector,including:Gender and Social Norms-Gender norms and intrahousehold dynamics inhibit womens access to energytechnologies.In addition,men are the main purchasers of energy products,even when women are the primaryend users;this results in skewed consumer data and products that do not always reflect the needs orpreferences of women.As in other sectors,gender norms and bias,as well as broader systemic barriers,limitwomens ability to enter the workforce and obtain funding.Lack of appropriate financing for women-owned and led businesses-Although financial institutionsincreasingly design gender-neutral policies and services,these tend to reflect the preferences of men.Researchshows that womens businesses may,for example,need a combination of financial and nonfinancial productsand services,including training,mentoring,networking,and other advisory services.Specifically,for early-stageoff-grid energy enterprises,financing for women to grow and sustain their businesses is limited.Microfinanceand traditional rural village savings and loan associations and cooperatives are the most common financingoptions available to women.Lack of policies that address gender inequality in the solar sector-Gender discrimination in laws,policies,andregulations prohibit and inhibit women from accessing the benefits of energy services and from activelyparticipating in the sector.The 2021 Women,Business and the Law(World Bank,2021)reports that 75countries limit womens property rights in some form,and various legal barriers prevent women from workingin specific sectors and occupations.Renewable energy policies and frameworks can be catalytic in introducinglabor conditions that are conducive to womens active participation in the sector,although even when energyfra
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