行业研究报告-PDF版

安永（EY）：2021年印度宏观财政绩效报告（英文版）（29页）.pdf

2021年10月，PMI制造增加到八个月高达55.9，PML服务增长到了十年半的58.4。2021年9月的嘴唇增长率从2021年9月的11.9%下降到3.1%，每季度，随着基础效应的减弱，2QFY22.

2021-12-10 29页 5星级

2022年宏观经济展望： 领先一步-211109（41页）.pdf

制造业投资在高技术制造业的带动下有望保持在当前较高的景气区间。2021年前三季度高技术制造业投资增速为20.1%，明显高于整体制造业投资增速，预计在政策的指引下，尤其是电子及通信设备、计算机、航空、.

2021-11-10 41页 5星级

世界银行集团（WBG）：2021年提高宏观财政可持续性报告 （英文版）（52页）.pdf

这项工作是世界银行工作人员在外部贡献下的成果。这份报告中的调查结果、解释和结论并不一定反映世行、世行执行董事会或世行所代表的政府的观点。世界银行不保证这项工作所包含数据的准确性。本著作中任何地图上所显.

2021-11-10 52页 5星级

世界银行集团（WBG）：2021年加勒比地区的宏观经济弹性报告（英文版）（35页）.pdf

另一方面，“未知的未知”的例子包括9-11恐怖袭击和世界大战。预计分析和政策讨论将解决“风险”。但是，值得注意的是，在某些讨论中，风险和不确定性之间的差异并不明显，可以对两者进行分析。例如，由于不完全.

2021-11-10 35页 5星级

2022年宏观经济展望：领先一步-211109（42页）.pdf

预计 2022 年将继续保持“稳货币”的基调，碳减排支持工具将起到补充基础货币的作用。我们预计央行的碳减排支持工具大概率采用再贷款的形式，规模或将达到 1 万亿左右，与 2021 年 7 月的全面降准.

2021-11-09 42页 5星级

KKR：全球宏观趋势报告（英文版）（44页）.pdf

自我们2018年发布上一份保险调查以来，世界发生了多大的变化，这是非同寻常的，在某种程度上也令人不安。这场大流行确实影响了许多人的生活其方式在大多数人看来是以前无法想象的。毫无疑问，保险业及其忠实服务的最大份额的投保人将永远不会相同。然而，与此同时，还有其他结构性因素在起作用，包括人口结构、数字化和整合，这些因素也在重塑全球金融服务业这个充满活力的领域的新常态方面发挥着重要作用。按照这种观点,我们认为,KKR的最新全球insurancesurvey专有,包含详细的反应从50多个ClOswho监督近7万亿美元的管理资产,illuminatingfor不仅在过去三年里发生了什么,但也- andmaybe更重要的接下来可能会发生什么?特别是，鉴于我们认为负实际利率环境将持续到2023年，我们的调查结果和与首席信息官的对话都证实了我们的想法，即需要一种更创新的方法来实现政策持有人的承诺，并维持诱人的资本回报。作为保险业持续发展的一部分，我们看到了全球保险业成功的三个关键先决条件之间重要的、结构性的融合:投资管理、投资组合构建和技术能力，有利于采购和运营效率以及强大的风险管理能力的规模参与者。为此，我们坚信，现在是首席信息官们敢于梦想的时候了。包括在未来5到10年的宏观经济环境中考虑资产配置、证券选择和竞争定位的新方法。我们将该报告的标题定为世界新秩序。这反映了我们强烈的信念，即在一个低利率的世界里，首席信息官们将不得不重新考虑他们传统的资产配置流程。具体来说，我们认为，在利率持续下降的情况下，他们需要更有创造性地思考，包括接受更复杂的情况，以产生足够的回报来匹配他们的负债。在我们进行第一次调查时，非传统投资(包括另类投资)似乎很有可能会成为资产配置组合中更大的一部分，这样做的话，就有可能产生显著的上行分化。无论我们是幸运还是出色，事实证明，我们对宏观经济前景及其走向的评估是准确的。总之，我们最近的调查显示，包括房地产信贷、结构性信贷和基础设施债务和股权在内的非传统投资在总投资组合中的比例已从2017年的约20%大幅上升至近三分之一。然而，事后看来，我们相信，在其他几个领域，我们应该有更大的信心向前迈进。具体来说，由于利差收紧和竞争加剧，许多保险公司通过移出流动性频谱发现了回报更高的资产，利率最终比我们预期的下降幅度更大。与此同时，传统公共信贷在保险公司总体投资组合中所占比例的下降甚至比我们预期的还要快。还有大流行病的影响需要考虑。除了这种疾病对整个社会造成的大量人员伤亡外，COVID还作为主要催化剂，加速了保险ClOs执行办公室已经开始的几个重要趋势，包括更快地转向非传统投资、更强劲的收益率渴望、改进的风险管理，以及在业务的大多数方面进一步加速数字化。

2021-11-08 44页 5星级

海内外宏观经济形势展望：行稳致远进而有为（54页）.pdf

PPI分歧较大，背后是油价基准与复苏预期远期PPI走势看全球经济及全球贸易走势一致，工业品作为可贸易品，其价格走势全球同步性较强，而PPI是工业品供需作用的结果，而工业品供给相对稳定，PPI价格主要决.

2021-09-23 54页 5星级

DDI智睿咨询：2021全球领导力展望中国报告（59页）.pdf

绩效管理须与时俱进中国领导者对绩效管理项目的评价相对较高。这个发现并不令人意外，因为目标导向是企业成功的重要因素，而绩效管理正是贯彻目标及达标后激励员工的主要手段。但在今天不确定性较高的大环境下，绩效.

2021-08-25 59页 5星级

景顺（Invesco）：2021年的投资前景报告-宏观经济和资产配置框架（英文版）（21页）.pdf

我们的基本案例我们的基本情景预测全球经济将继续复苏，尽管不均衡且速度较慢pace.coVID-19 对中国经济，但其复苏正在顺利进行。我们预计中国将因更好的控制而跑赢大盘鉴于我们对部分封锁的预期，美国.

2021-08-23 21页 5星级

凯度：2021中国全球化品牌50强（62页）.pdf

五大洞察1尽管中国全球化品牌在发达市场的总体品牌力略有下降，但其中强大的品牌仍展现出了十足的韧性。2宅经济相关的品类得益于长时间的居家隔离，品牌力不但没有被总体下滑趋势所累，反而逆势走强。3在环境变局.

2021-06-29 62页 5星级

金砖国家发展前景及合作机制探析（34页）.pdf

巴西是南美洲面积最大的国家，自然资源丰富，拥有发达的农牧业和较完善的工业体系。作为世界十大经济体之一，巴西的经济体量远高于其他拉美经济体。从历史角度看，巴西在1975年进入中等收入国家行列，特别是19.

2021-06-29 34页 5星级

EMIS&CEIC：2021前瞻报告（60页）.pdf

中美贸易战开启去全球化趋势新冠疫情加速了特朗普贸易战开启的去全球化趋势，引发了人们对全球供应链是否过长的担忧。疫情从多方面重塑着这个世界，很多人表示，全球化可能是疫情的受害者之一。疫情以惊心动魄的方式.

2021-06-29 60页 5星级

2021年中国国民经济和社会发展状况分析报告（22页）.pdf

整体上生产增长放缓，传统行业增速低。2020 年规模以上工业增加值同比增长 2.8%， 增速逐季回升，较上年放缓 2.9 个百分点。其中，传统行业增速明显放缓，纺织、造纸、 化学原料和化学制品制造业增.

2021-06-24 22页 5星级

KKR：2021年全球宏观趋势洞察报告（英文版）（46页）.pdf

早在2020年4月，当我们第一次开始与读者分享我们对人类悲剧和全球流行病的市场影响的想法时，我们回顾了历史上的其他时期，那时需要决心、韧性和毅力来简单地“保持冷静和继续”。现在正处于2021年的风口浪尖，希望随着疫苗和其他疗法给数百万人带来希望，大流行即将结束，我们再次停下来，不仅反思过去，而且更多地着眼于未来。我们相信，2021年是一个独特的机遇，一个新的开始。事实上，我们在KKR的几乎所有研究都告诉我们，我们已经进入了一个新的、可持续的商业周期，尽管在这一过程中不可避免地会遇到挫折，但这种复苏将继续带来更多的机会。然而，所有人都必须愿意用“另一种声音”来看待未来。具体而言，我们认为，全球配置者将需要支持投资，这些投资不仅要在比近年来更快的名义GDP环境中蓬勃发展，而且还要与我们的六大“宏观主题”同步：全球千禧一代的崛起;多元化投资组合中基于资产的现金流的需求;增加财政支出的受益者;全球需求和供应的本土化;分散性增加;以及世俗的创新者。毫无疑问，我们在KKR的基本观点是，2021年将是向“另一个声音”过渡的一年，正如艾略特所说，这一年将成为“开始”。在我们所设想的新环境中，我们相信疫苗的好处，而最初在2020年实施的刺激计划(这导致了大量储蓄，现在可用于未来消费)将在2021年开始切实改善全球经济的增长轨迹。与这一观点一致，我们看到全球同步复苏，或者说是“一个开端”，推动2021年市场的持续扩大。换言之，我们看到通货再膨胀在短期内不会出现问题通胀。

2021-05-05 46页 5星级

罗汉堂：衡量和追踪全球疫情经济（41页）.pdf

全球疫情经济的核心规律（1）全球疫情、疫情政策和人流活跃度的关系对抗疫情，有没有可以全球适用的普遍规律？在这里有两个问题值得讨论：世界各国是否可以借鉴中国的行动和经验？有没有国家能够在人流活跃度不大幅.

2021-02-23 39页 5星级

联博集团：2021年全球经济宏观前景（英文版）（15页）.pdf

1 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK JANUARY 2021KEY FORECAST TRENDS Although the near-term outlook remains challengingespecially in Europe, where output looks set to contract again in the first quartermarkets are still laser-focused on prospects for recovery once economic restrictions have been lifted. With governments and central banks still providing abundant liquidity and support, the only development likely to challenge this narrative would be the emergence of a more deadly or vaccine-resistant virus mutation. Reflationary hopes have been boosted by recent developments in the US. With the Democrats now in effective control of both houses of Congress, the route towards additional fiscal stimulus has cleared. The outlook for bond yields has become less certain. In Europe and Japan, where monetary and fiscal policy are acting in concert and central banks are committed to implicit or explicit yield-curve control, the risk of higher yields is low. By contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is not committed to yield-curve control and might see additional fiscal stimulus as a reason to begin winding down its own support for the economy. Speculation about Fed tapering should remain low while COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines but could become an important driver later in the year. But even if risks are now skewed towards higher US yields, the Fed is unlikely to tolerate an abrupt increase. A return to the pre-pandemic trading range remains a distant prospect, in our view. THE GLOBAL CYCLE CONTENTS Global Forecast . 2 Global Market Outlook Yield Curves . 3 Currencies . 4 US . 5 Euro Area . 6 China . 7 Japan . 8 Australia/New Zealand . 8 Canada . 9 UK . 9 Asia ex Japan . 10 Latin America . 11 Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) . 12 Frontier Markets .13 Forecast Tables . 14 Contributors . 15 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY After a difficult first quarter, growth is likely to rebound quite strongly. But a full recovery will take time. In most countries, a return to the pre-pandemic trend is likely to prove elusive. WeakStrongTrendINFLATION Elevated debt and a shift in the underlying policy regime provide fertile ground for rising inflation. But large output gaps and dormant inflation expectations mean this is unlikely to happen this year. MONETARY POLICY Advanced-economy policy rates are likely to remain on hold next year, and probably well beyond. Central banks are likely to push back against anything other than a modest rise in bond yields. LowHighTargetLooseTightNeutral 2 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK GLOBAL FORECAST FORECAST OVERVIEW FORECASTS THROUGH TIME AB Global Growth Forecasts by Vintage Forecast years start in April: i.e., the first forecast for calendar-year 2017 is March 2016 and so forth. As of December 31, 2020 Source: AB AB Global Inflation Forecasts by Vintage Forecast years start in April: i.e., the first forecast for calendar-year 2017 is March 2016 and so forth. As of December 31, 2020 Source: AB (6)(4)(2)0246171819202120172018201920202021YoY % Chg. 0.51.01.52.02.53.03.5171819202120172018201920202021YoY % Chg.Key Assumptions Virus: likely to weigh on growth in 1Q, then fade as a cyclical factor Vaccine: effective vaccines an important part of this process, but wont allow an immediate return to business as usual Fiscal policy: should remain highly supportive at the global level; US concerns now fading Monetary policy: central banks to keep policy rates anchored and bond yields low Secular backdrop: headwinds to be exacerbated by COVID-19 Central Forecast Global growth: after a difficult 1Q, global growth is likely to rebound quite strongly Reflation: COVID-19 scarring to prevent an early return to the pre-pandemic trend Inflation: regime shift firmly underway, but inflation set to remain muted in 2021 Yields: upward pressure will build as growth recovers, but any increase likely to be modest USD: likely to weaken, but our conviction has fallen Key Upside Risks Speedy vaccine rollout More aggressive fiscal stimulus Limited COVID-19 scarring Key Downside Risks Virus mutation / vaccine resistance Accidental/premature austerity Higher US bond yields AB Growth & Inflation Forecasts (%) Real GDP Growth CPI Inflation 2020 2021 2020 2021 US (2.9) 4.9 1.3 2.0 Euro Area (7.2) 2.4 0.3 0.8 Japan (5.3) 2.6 0.2 0.3 China 2.0 8.2 2.5 2.3 Global (3.7) 4.8 2.0 2.2 Industrial Countries (4.9) 3.6 0.8 1.4 Emerging Countries (2.0) 6.6 3.8 3.4 EM ex China (5.2) 5.2 4.9 4.5 As of December 31, 2020 Source: AB 3 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: YIELD CURVES GLOBAL YIELDS GlobalThe overriding aim of monetary policy over the past year has been to support fiscal policy by keeping bond yields low. This consensus may start to fray as economies begin to recover. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are committed to some form of yield-curve control. Thats not the case, however, in the US, where the Fed may see additional fiscal stimulus as a signal that it can start to wind down its own support for the economy. USWith fiscal stimulus already in train and more likely to follow, the scope for rates to rise has gone up. That said, we still expect the Fed to act as a restraint on rates and dont expect yields to return to their precrisis levels for some time to come. Euro AreaThe ECB expanded and extended its Asset Purchase Programme in December, but the focus is now on maintaining highly accommodative financial conditions rather than a steady volume of purchases. JapanTweaks from the BOJdropping the Y80 trillion-per-annum purchase targetlargely validate the status quo. Yield-curve control (YCC) should anchor 10-year bond yields close to zero for the foreseeable future. 10-Year Yields: AB vs. Consensus Year-End Forecasts (%) AB Consensus 2020 2021 2020 2021 US 0.92 1.35 0.92 1.21 Euro Area (0.57) (0.25) (0.57) (0.33) Japan 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05 China 3.15 3.50 3.15 3.25 As of January 8, 2021 Source: Bloomberg and AB Real 10-Year Bond Yields* *Current 10-year bond yield less five-year/five-year-forward inflation swap Through January 8, 2020 Source: Bloomberg and AB (2)(1)0123101112131415161718192021PercentUSJapanEuro AreaYield Curves: 10-Year Bond Yield Minus Two-Year Bond Yield Through January 8, 2021 Source: Bloomberg and AB (50)050100150200250300101112131415161718192021Basis PointsUSJapanEuro Area 4 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK: CURRENCIES FX FORECASTS USDAll else being equal, rising prospects for global reflation should favour a weaker dollar. But gains in developed and emerging-market currencies are likely to be constrained if brightening US growth prospects lead to a return of US monetary-policy exceptionalism. EURThe euro has strengthened in recent weeks and is close to its highest level in almost two years against the US dollar. Further gains may be more difficult if growth lags the US during the early stages of the recovery from COVID-19 lockdowns. JPYWe see few Japan-specific reasons for a big shift in the yen. Policies in developed economies have converged with those in Japan. That said, we still think the yen retains its risk-off characteristics. Global FX: AB vs. Consensus Year-End Forecasts (%) AB Consensus 2020 2021 2020 2021 EUR/USD 1.22 1.30 1.22 1.24 USD/JPY 103 101 103 103 USD/CNY 6.53 6.30 6.53 6.40 EUR/GBP 0.89 0.93 0.89 0.91 As of January 8, 2021 Source: Bloomberg and AB Nominal USD Exchange Rate: US Dollar Index Through January 8, 2021 Source: Bloomberg and AB 7080901001101201301400002040608101214161820Post-Louvre Avg. = 100Real USD Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Through December 31, 2020 Source: Haver Analytics and AB 80901001101201300002040608101214161820Post-Louvre Avg. = 100 5 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK US Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F US (2.9) 4.9 1.3 2.0 0.13 0.15 0.90 1.35 OUTLOOK The near-term outlook for the US will be determined by the balance between two countervailing forces: On one hand, the virus situation has clearly worsened, and this will inevitably have a negative impact on growth. Fiscal support, however, should offset much of the damage and allow households to smooth consumption over time. On net, we still anticipate positive growth in early 2021, but stronger growth rates will likely have to wait until later in the year. If, as we assume, vaccines allow for the economy to reopen broadly over the summer, the scene is set for the economy to enjoy robust growth for several quarters to come. Fiscal supportdelivered and expectedhas kept household balance sheets whole and pent-up demand in sectors that have been distressed during the crisis should push growth up sharply. Therefore, we have revised upward our full-year growth forecasts to nearly 5.0% Monetary policy is largely out of the game for the time being, with the Fed set to continue providing significant accommodation to support growth. As the year progresses, the Fed will have to decide how long and at what pace to continue quantitative easing (QE), while the process of communicating its forward plans to the market could trigger volatility. RISK FACTORS The obvious risk is if newer strains of COVID-19 worsen the outlook pre-vaccines or, worst case, prove vaccine resistant, which would change the outlook dramatically. Even just a sluggish vaccine rollout could delay our anticipated growth boom and increase the amount of permanent economic damage from COVID-19. While we expect the Fed to leave its policy rate at zero for several years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to consider reducing the size of its QE purchases later this year or early 2022. Changes to QE could be disruptive and it will take a lot of skill for chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues to navigate those waters. OVERVIEW We remain upbeat about the medium-term outlookespecially in the wake of significant stimulus passed late last year and now Democratic control of the Senate, which will likely mean even more fiscal support in the coming months. Before the full impact of such spending can be felt, however, the public health situation must improve. Our expectation is that vaccine distribution will accelerate, and economic reopening will follow suit, in the next few months. But until that happens, uncertainty will overhang the outlook. The other overhang is longer-term: government debt. While we remain firmly convinced that fiscal support is essential to the near-term outlook, one consequence is rising debt, which will be a headwind to longer-term growth. With interest rates low-and likely to stay low for several years the cost of servicing that debt is manageable for the time being. Eventually, however, either interest rates will have to rise, or expanding financial market bubbles will become unsustainable. this is unlikely to be an issue in 2021, or even 2022, leaving the outlook bright for now. Total Nonfarm Employment Through December 15, 2020 Source: Refinitiv Datastream 125,000130,000135,000140,000145,000150,000155,000200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022MillonsRecessionUS Employment/Population Ratio Through December 15, 2020 Source: Refinitiv Datastream 5052545658606220162017201820192020 6 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Euro Area Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Euro Area (7.2) 2.4 0.3 0.8 (0.50) (0.50) (0.50) (0.25) 1.22 1.30 OUTLOOK While the development of effective vaccines offers light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel, the euro area still faces a difficult winter. Significant restrictions on economic and social activity are likely to be in place until spring. Moreover, full-scale national lockdowns are possible if the new, and more transmittable, virus mutation gains a foothold. With the economy is likely to contract again in the first quarter, we have lowered our 2021 economic growth forecast from 4.0% to 2.4%. But our forecast masks a sustained recovery from the second quarter onward. Given this trajectory and strong momentum, we expect the euro area to expand by 5.5% in 2022. With a weak near-term outlook, persistent failure to generate inflation and an ongoing need to support fiscal policy, monetary policy will remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future. In December, ECB extended its PEPP Asset Purchase Programme until at least March 2022 and increased its size by 500 billion to 1.85 trillion (about 16% of GDP). The focus of the program, however, has switched to keeping financial conditions highly accommodative rather than maintaining a constant volume of purchases. RISK FACTORS While our forecasts assume a further tightening of restrictions on economic and social activity during the first quarter, we have not incorporated a more significant hit to activity. This could be possible, however, if the new virus mutation leads to explosive growth in COVID-19 cases. Media reports point to very slow vaccine rollouts and significant opposition to vaccination in many euro-area countries. In a worst-case scenario, these could delay the achievement of herd immunity and leave countries open to another seasonal resurgence in COVID-19 later this year. OVERVIEW The current trajectory of euro-area output growth is being driven in large part by restrictions needed to control COVID-19. The composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 49.1 in December from 45.3 in November, driven by recoveries in France and Spain. These countries were starting to relax restrictions on activity after being forced to impose earlier and harsher measures than other large euro-area countries. INSEE, the French national statistics institute, estimates that the economy contracted by about 4% in the fourth quarter, about 9% below 4Q 2019. Barring a significant pickup in COVID-19 cases, the French economy is probably past the worst. But thats unlikely to be the case in Germany, for example, where the government tightened restrictions on economic and social activity further in the middle of December. The net result is that the euro-area economy is likely to contract in both the 4Q of last year and first quarter of 2021we have penciled in 2% contractions for both quarters, though with an unusually large margin of error. Composite Purchasing Managers Index Through December 31, 2020 Source: Haver Analytics and IHS Markit 102030405060700709111315171921IndexConsumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Through December 31, 2020 Source: Haver Analytics (0.5)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.510 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20YoY % ChangeHeadlineCore 7 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK China Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F China 2.0 8.2 2.5 2.3 4.35 4.10 3.30 3.50 6.50 6.30 OUTLOOK We expect China 2021 real GDP growth to rebound to about 8.2%, on the back of economic activity normalization post COVID-19, extended monetary and fiscal easing measures, and 2020s low starting point. 2021 marks the first year of Chinas 14th Five-Year Plan, and we expect big and strategically important projects that are usually launched upon each plans onset to bolster growth. 2021 also marks the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party and we believe economic stability is fundamental to ensure social and political stability. As a result, continued monetary and fiscal easing will be indispensable in 2021. RISK FACTORS Increasing COVID-19 cases, city lockdowns, and tighter social distancing measures will cloud the on-going economic recovery and block its full normalization. Faster-than-expected economic recovery may also prompt the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) toward tightening, and even though that is not our base case, it could potentially threaten the current economic recovery. A bigger-than-expected rise in pork prices and increase in importer inflation may result in higher-than-expected broader inflation, and this may constrain PBOCs easing magnitude. OVERVIEW Chinas December 2020 PMI data surprised to the downside, with official Manufacturing (MFG) PMI down -0.2 to settle at 51.9, and the Non-MFG PMI at 55.7, down -0.7. The Caixin MFG PMI fell -1.9 to 53 and the Caixin Non-MFG PMI dropped 1.5, reaching to 56.3. This is mainly driven by three things: 1. a colder-than-usual winter, resulting in some economic activity suspension; 2. power shortages due to the harsher winter, with outages especially in some provinces in industrial sectors; 3. some pickups in domestic COVID-19 cases, and stricter social distancing measures and travel bans in some provinces. We think the weakness in economic activity is temporary until colder weather passes. Chinas December 2020 Consumer Price Index (CPI) improved to 0.2%, up from 0.5% in November, while its Producer Price Index (PPI) improved to 0.4% in December, up from 1.5% the previous month. China announced more than nine million people are now inoculated for COVID-19 and is on schedule to expand vaccinations nationwide. Given that the Chinese COVID-19 vaccine uses traditional technology not requiring colder-temperature storage and distribution, along with Chinas advanced logistics system, we believe China may lead the world in inoculation. We therefore believe China will continue to be a source of stability to the global economy in 2021. China Manufacturing PMI Through December 31, 2020 Source: Bloomberg and AB 3537394143454749515355353739414345474951535520162017201820192020Official PMICaixin PMIChina CPI & PPI Through December 31, 2020 Source: Bloomberg and AB -8-6-4-20246810-8-6-4-2024681011121314151617181920YoY % ChangeCPIPPI 8 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Japan Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Japan (5.3) 2.6 0.2 0.3 (0.10) (0.10) 0.02 0.00 103 101 OUTLOOK COVID-19 cases continue to rise in Japan, leading to the imposition of new state-of-emergency restrictions. The popularity of new PM Yoshihide Suga has slipped sharply, increasing political uncertainty in an election year. Monetary policy setting remains unchanged, with yield-curve control anchoring interest rates. More fiscal stimulus is in the pipeline. RISK FACTORS A sharply stronger yen would apply additional economic squeeze. OVERVIEW A third wave of COVID-19 cases continue to rise in Japan. While still well below that experienced in the US, UK or Europe, its 50 daily cases per million has climbed sharply since mid-December. New PM Suga has declared a second “state of emergency” for Tokyo and surrounding prefectures until the first week of February and its likely to be extended to other regions. As a result of the requested restrictions (Japans government still lacks the authority to compel business closures, although amended legislation is in the works), its highly likely that economic activity will soften further in early 2021. As elsewhere, rising cases provided renewed impetus for more fiscal policy support via an additional supplementary budget, which was finalized last month. Once again, this will be facilitated by the “unlimited” bond buying by the BOJ. Japan remains at the forefront of fiscal-monetary cooperation “joined-at-the-hip”and theres no indication its about to change. Accordingly, bond yields will remain anchored despite any additional supply. While the change in political leadership in Japan occurred smoothly, with cabinet secretary Suga taking over as PM from Abe, the new administration has suffered a sharp deterioration in popularity, in large part because of perceptions around the handling of the pandemic. Whilst it is unlikely that the broad thrust of policy will be affected, political uncertainty is rising again. Australia/New Zealand Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Australia (2.5) 3.0 0.7 1.5 0.10 0.10 0.97 0.90 0.77 0.75 New Zealand (2.7) 4.5 1.6 1.4 0.25 (0.10) 0.99 0.90 0.72 0.72 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND COVID-19 cases remain contained in Australia. The big jump in cases in July/Augustcentered in the state of Victoriarapidly reversed thanks to stringent restrictions and state border closures. Those restrictions were relaxed significantly through November. While cases in the state of New South Wales ticked higher around Christmas, the outbreak seems to have been managed via contact tracing, rather than substantial restrictions. Accordingly, the hit to activity from lockdowns has been more modest than expected, and the recovery a little more robust. But the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to fret about the medium-term outlook. In early November, it cut rates and implemented a US$100 billion bond purchase programto supplement its three-year yield-curve control target. This policy is unlikely to be reassessed in 2021. In New Zealand, the story is similar. COVID-19 has effectively been eliminated within the country. But restrictions on international travel and tourism will have to continuea significant headwind for the economy going into 2021. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set for more policy easing: it unveiled a funding-for-lending scheme in November and will likely still move to a negative-interest-rate policy in early 2021. 9 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Canada Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Canada (3.0) 4.0 0.5 2.0 0.25 0.25 0.80 1.20 1.24 1.22 OUTLOOK With COVID-19 again dominating the narrative, Canadas economy is unlikely to expand meaningfully during the winter months. Thereafter, however, the outlook brightens considerably if the vaccine rollout is successful, which we expect it will be eventually. The Bank of Canada will continue to provide support, complemented by fiscal policy, for the time being to assure that the medium-term outlook remains solid. We expect the Canadian dollar to benefit from a reflationary environment and to appreciate against the USD in 2021. RISK FACTORS Just as it has been, until COVID-19 is convincingly in the rearview mirror it remains the dominant risk in the global and the Canadian economy. OVERVIEW With COVID-19 again dominating the narrative and the rising risk of newer, more contagious strains, the Canadian economy is likely to go into hibernation for the next couple of months as lockdowns and economic restrictions limit activity. If, as we expect, vaccine distribution and delivery is effective, however, the outlook should improve as the year moves along. We expect strong growth in the coming quarters, but the next few weeks and months will be difficult. UK Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F UK (10.7) 2.3 0.8 1.6 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.37 1.40 OUTLOOK The UKs was one of the worst-hit economies by COVID-19 last year and with the emergence of a new, more transmittable, virus mutation a similar pattern seems to be emerging entering 2021. At the beginning of January, the government imposed another, stricter national lockdown, likely until at least mid- February. While not as draconian as measures in March of last year, the new lockdown includes the closure of schools and universities and is likely to have a substantial negative impact on the economy. With additional disruption from the end of the Brexit transition phase, we expect the economy to contract by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2021, following a 2.5% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020. Both forecasts are subject to unusually wide margins of error. Thereafter, we expect the economy to rebound strongly, driven by several supportive factors: rapid vaccine rollout, especially compared with most other European countries; a significant recovery in consumer spending supported by healthier household balance sheets; and a partial recovery in business investment now that theres greater clarity on the new trading relationship with the European Union. Its also worth noting that the British economy is operating much further below pre-pandemic levels than most other European economies. The flipside is that theres greater upside as activity starts to normalize. We have lowered our 2021 economic growth forecast to 2.3% from 3.5% but expect the economy to grow by almost 9% in 2022. While this is a large number, it puts the economy back at only pre-pandemic output levels at the very end of next year. RISK FACTORS There are risks in both directions. In the very near term, its possible that the economy will prove more resilient than we expect. Further out, there are risks of a more muted recovery if vaccine rollout is slower than expected or if theres a more long-lasting impact than anticipated from the end of the Brexit transition period. The future shape of fiscal policy will also have an important impact on the outlook, but the risks from this direction are evenly balanced. 10 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Asia ex Japan Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Asia ex Jap/Ch (4.9) 6.3 2.8 2.4 2.30 2.03 3.56 3.51 Hong Kong (7.0) 5.0 0.5 1.0 1.00 0.90 0.70 0.80 7.75 7.77 India (8.6) 9.3 7.0 4.5 4.00 3.50 5.81 5.70 74.00 72.00 Indonesia (2.0) 5.0 2.1 2.3 3.75 3.25 5.86 5.70 14,100 13,800 South Korea (0.7) 3.3 0.5 0.8 0.50 0.50 1.73 1.75 1,087 1,050 Thailand (6.3) 5.2 (0.9) 1.1 0.50 0.50 1.28 1.35 30.0 31.50 OUTLOOK In general, the virus is contained in most countries across the region, but cases continue to rise in Malaysia, leading to the imposition of tighter restrictions. Regional exports of goods have recoveredinitially on the technology side before flowing more broadly to non-tech. But exports of services, like tourism, remain weak. Substantial monetary and fiscal support has been delivered. Questions persist around how far “unconventional” policies can be pushed, even if market concerns have subsided for now. RISK FACTORS COVID-19, US-China tensions OVERVIEW In general, Asia continues to effectively control the spread of COVID-19. Cases in countries such as Taiwan and Vietnam are close to zero. Cases in India, Indonesia and the Philippines remain elevated, but still controlled. The main exception is Malaysia, where cases continue to surge, leading to further tightening of the Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) restrictions. The region isnt out the woods, to be sure, but the virus is becoming less of a dominant factor. At the same time, a global trade recovery has clearly helped the region. Exports, initially tech-related but now across the board, have bounced sharply, and are benefiting countries like Taiwan and Korea. For those more exposed to servicesfor example, Thailand, with its heavy reliance on tourismthe outlook remains bleak. Its difficult to see a rapid recovery until the emergence of widespread vaccination, which seems unlikely to occur fast enough across the region to restore normality until 2022. The economic policy response to date has been positivewith monetary easing and substantial fiscal support being delivered across the board. This should help underpin a recovery. But across the region an end to the monetary easing cycle is close. Fiscal policysupported by central bank actionis now dominant. The Philippines, India and Indonesia, among others, have ventured down a path of unconventional monetary policy, intervening in domestic government bond markets to smooth volatility and facilitate fiscal deficit financing. Indonesia has an explicit “burden-sharing” agreement between the finance ministry and the countrys central bank. And in the Philippines, the central bank provided substantial loans in 2020, an arrangement that will continue in 2021. To date, market concerns have been eased by the commitment that these are “one-off” measures. This may prove to be the case. But history tells us that advancing down this path seldom stops at the first step. 11 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Latin America Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F Latin America (7.0) 4.1 8.2 7.3 6.68 5.47 5.80 6.01 Argentina (11.0) 4.0 45.0 40.0 38.00 30.00 82.6 120.00 Brazil (4.3) 3.0 3.0 3.6 2.00 2.50 6.91 7.50 5.19 5.00 Chile (6.0) 5.1 3.0 2.5 0.50 0.75 2.50 3.00 712 700 Colombia (7.6) 4.9 3.0 2.5 1.75 1.50 5.40 5.25 3,429 3,750 Mexico (8.7) 4.5 3.6 3.5 4.25 3.50 5.50 5.25 19.9 20.8 OUTLOOK Growth in Latin America is recovering more slowly than elsewhere in emerging markets. Brazilian growth is expected to lag the rest of the region because of structural constraints and political negotiations slowing the approval of key reforms. Low capacity to deliver public services efficiently will hamper the speed of recovery even after securing enough COVID-19 vaccines. Moreover, new lockdowns will imply more pressure on already-stretched fiscal accounts. RISK FACTORS While most countries in the region have procured vaccines for more than 50% of their populations, an increase in COVID-19 cases in the coming months may impact economic activity in the first half of 2021. OVERVIEW In Brazil, a second wave of COVID-19 cases has reignited discussions among lawmakers for further fiscal stimulus. Following unprecedented stimulus in 2020, Brazil had intended to end all COVID-19 related measures at the end of the year and resume the fiscal consolidation plan in place before the pandemic. The resurgence of the virus increases the risk that Congress will approve measures that will cause a breach of the spending cap, one of Brazils fiscal rules. This could lead to deterioration in investor confidence as market players worry about a return to fiscal dominance. While not our base case, the tail risk remains. Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for most of the year, but the Brazilian central bank is expected to begin hiking the policy rate as early as the third quarter as inflation approaches the midpoint of the target range. The increase in fiscal stimulus in the US would sustain Mexicos recovery in 2021 by improving private consumption through remittances and manufacturing exports. By late 2020, manufacturing activity continued to improve as the economy gradually re-opened, mobility increased, and external demand improved, but it is still running around 10% below early 2020 levels. Both investment demand and government spending will remain a drag on overall domestic demand. Currency appreciation and inflation close to target in 2020, as well as a more dovish central bank board, will permit monetary easing to continue in 2021 when we expect at least three cuts in the monetary policy rate. In Chile and Peru, political developments will remain at the forefront in the first half of the year. In Chile, voters will elect their representatives to the constitutional assembly that will oversee the rewriting of the constitution after country-wide protests in 2019 demanded changes in social services. The assemblys composition will determine the depth of the institutional changes and how much the public sectors balance sheet could deteriorate. In Peru, after a 2020 characterized by a health, economic and political crisis, the markets desired scenario of economic policy and political stability would be achieved if the presidential election winner also manages to garner enough support in Congress. With elections in early April, we will closely observe the polls, political alliances and candidates platforms to assess what to expect after the new government takes office by the second half of the year. 12 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Policy Rate (%) 10-Yr. Bond Yield (%) FX Rates vs. USD 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F EEMEA (4.1) 3.7 5.2 5.5 5.86 4.43 6.32 6.51 Hungary (5.7) 5.4 2.9 3.2 0.60 0.75 1.90 2.20 350 330 Poland (4.5) 5.5 3.3 2.6 0.10 0.10 1.20 1.50 4.56 4.50 Russia (4.2) 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.25 4.00 5.90 6.00 74.0 71.0 South Africa (8.0) 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.50 3.50 9.20 9.50 15.0 15.5 Turkey (0.8) 3.5 12.3 14.1 17.00 11.50 12.00 13.00 7.44 7.60 OUTLOOK Economic growth was relatively weak in the last quarter of 2020 and renewed lockdowns could continue to weigh on activity in several EEMEA countries early in 2021. The gradual distribution of a vaccine should start to reignite the economic recovery during the first half of the year, but output will remain below pre-pandemic levels for quite some time. Central banks responded swiftly to the COVID-19 crisis by easing monetary policy and implementing bond purchase programs to support domestic financial liquidity. While further modest interest-rate cuts are possible in Russia, other countries such as South Africa have likely come to the end of their easing cycles. Although we dont think the interest-rate cycle in the region has turned, Turkey has been forced to tighten monetary policy owing to exchange-rate pressures. RISK FACTORS The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in some countries and varying vaccine procurement and distribution plans could lead to diverging rates of economic recovery. The timing and the degree of normalization of international travel and a revival of the tourism industry will also remain important risk factors for countries such as Turkey. OVERVIEW The Turkish central banks (CBRTs) additional 200 basis point (b.p.) hike to 17% at the December 2020 monetary policy committee meeting signaled a greater commitment to price stability, at least over the near term. Combined with the ex-post real policy interest rate running at 2.5%, this had a continued positive impact on capital flows. Total non-resident inflows into local bond and equity markets amounted to US$2.3 billion in December, following US$1.8 billion of inflows in the previous month, supporting lira appreciation. So far, CBRT monetary tightening hasnt been able to stop the local dollarization trend, as corporates and households both continued to accumulate foreign exchange deposits over the course of December, although more recently at a seemingly slower pace. It is important to note that three-month lira deposit rates saw a meaningful rise, ending the year at around 19.6% and offering ex-post real yields of 5%, the highest level since October 2019. Provided the CBRT maintains its hawkish bias, the increase in domestic real deposit rates should support a further slowdown and a potential reversal in the dollarization trend. While headline inflation will need to be monitored carefully over the coming months (reaching a peak of 15.5% in April), our baseline remains that the CBRT will remain on hold until the end of the second quarter, at which point price pressure should subside slightly going into year-end and the central bank will have room to cut the policy rate. Needless to say, the CBRTs reaction function and the speed of expected cuts during the second half of the year will be key indicators as to whether recent policy changes represent a permanent shift towards more responsible and orthodox monetary policy making. 13 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK South Africas growth outlook deteriorated over the past month as the second wave of COVID-19 led to the reintroduction of lockdown measures. While the new restrictions arent as stringent as those which brought the economy to a near standstill in 2020, the health situation is concerning, and South Africa is lagging in procurement of vaccines. The PMI eased to 50.3 in December from 52.6 in November, with declines in the business activity index (44.9 in December from 52.2 in November) and the new sales orders index (45.2 from 49.0) pointing to a meaningful loss in momentum. The reintroduction of lockdown measures and the return of load shedding at the start of the year could lead to very weak economic growth in the first quarter of 2021. The pandemic exposed South Africas economic and fiscal vulnerabilities and its recovery appears delayed by domestic (new lockdown measures and electricity supply shortages) and external factors (slowdown in key export markets like the euro area). But the pandemic also led toor forcedpromising political and policy reform and we think sustained momentum on this front could ultimately overshadow near-term macroeconomic weakness. At the start of 2021 the Gulf Security Council (GCC) countries managed to come to an agreement with Qatar on the diplomatic and economic blockade dating back to June 2017. Despite President Trumps initial support for Qatars blockade, the US has been pressuring the GCC for years to find a solution to the regional rift. Hence the Saudi leadership, in particular Crown Prince Mohammad, likely wanted to accelerate a resolution before the Biden administration takes office, given the latters more critical stance on other issues in the region such as the war in Yemen and human rights. While oil prices will remain the main determinant of the regions economic fortunes, Qatars reintegration into the GCC will improve regional trade, investment and financial flows, adding to the positive regional investment impetus following the UAEIsrael peace agreement signed in September 2020. Regional tourism should also benefit during the 2022 Qatar Football World Cup. Potential foreign policy divergences between Qatar and Saudi/UAE could present obstacles and possible setbacks down the line. In particular, a renewed shift in Qatars support for the Muslim Brotherhood or its support for Turkeys regional ambitions, and how this impacts Qatars relations with the rest of the GCC, are aspects that will need to be monitored closely. Frontier Markets Zambia announced early last year that it would seek to restructure its external debt. In September, it requested a six-month debt service suspension on all commercial debt. The governments proposed extraordinary resolutions (including the deferral of interest payments) were not passed by bondholders and Zambia defaulted in November. The IMF indicated that it had visited the country early in December for high-level discussions with authorities after their request for a financing arrangement. Later that month, Zambia published its Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) to address the countrys economic and debt challenges. While the authorities now seem to be aiming for an IMF program by mid-2021(i.e., before the presidential election, the ERP is not very ambitious; finalization of debt negotiations isnt projected until the end of 2022 and the clearance of external arrears expected only by the end of 2023. The IMFs assessment of the credibility of the ERP will be important to monitor in determining the prospect of a funded program. But we think the IMF could remain quite cautious in its dealings with Zambia before the August 2021 election. In mid-February, Ecuadorians will go to the polls to elect their new president. The leading candidatesright-winger Guillermo Lasso, former president Rafael Correas ally Andres Arauz, and indigenous leader Yaku Perezrepresent a binary outcome for economic policymaking and commitment to the IMF program. Slow economic growth, COVID-19 restrictions and government austerity measures to comply with the IMF program have created an environment primed for political change; the vast majority of the population is unhappy with the Moreno administration and the political establishment in general. Lasso has been in politics for decades and this year will be his third attempt at the presidency. But he represents the friendliest outcome for the capital markets, maintaining policies to promote fiscal consolidation and ensure the dollarization regime remains feasible. Arauz has strong ties to former president Rafael Correa and while there is a risk that he would impose populist policies and break ties with multilateral institutions, we dont believe this is the base case. Arauz is a trained economist and committed to the dollarization regime, which creates endogenous constraints and limits the extent of heterodox policy. While the IMF program would likely be renegotiated under an Arauz presidency, we dont believe it would be completely eliminated. Yaku Perez is the wildcard candidate; hes running on a pro-environment platform, which while positive for the countrys Amazon and other protected lands would likely be negative for future development of the mining sector. Perez has refused to engage with multilateral institutions during the run-up to the election. In our view, Perez would create the most uncertainty for the future of the Ecuadorian economy. Ecuador complied with all the requirements of the IMF program in the latest review, which unlocked US$2 billion in financing, but the future of the program depends on the outcome of the election. The first round is scheduled for February 7. A run-off will be held on April 2 if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote or over 40% with a 10% margin over the next-closest candidate. 2020F2021F2020F2021F2020F2021F2020F2021F2020F2021FGlobal(3.7)4.8 2.0 2.2 1.66 1.45 1.81 2.04 -Industrial Countries(4.9)3.6 0.8 1.4 (0.08)(0.07)0.35 0.66 -Emerging Countries(2.0)6.6 3.8 3.4 4.34 3.78 4.10 4.18 -EM ex China(5.2)5.2 4.9 4.5 4.41 3.54 4.88 4.92 -United States(2.9)4.9 1.3 2.0 0.13 0.15 0.90 1.35 -Canada(3.0)4.0 0.5 2.0 0.25 0.25 0.80 1.20 1.24 1.22 Europe(7.6)2.4 0.4 1.0 (0.37)(0.37)(0.34)(0.08)1.76 1.81 Euro Area(7.2)2.4 0.3 0.8 (0.50)(0.50)(0.50)(0.25)1.22 1.30 United Kingdom(10.7)2.3 0.8 1.6 0.10 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.37 1.40 Sweden(3.5)2.5 0.6 1.3 0.00 0.00 (0.15)0.10 10.0 10.0 Norway(3.5)2.5 1.4 2.4 0.00 0.00 0.75 1.10 10.8 10.5 Japan(5.3)2.6 0.2 0.3 (0.10)(0.10)0.02 0.00 103 101 Australia(2.5)3.0 0.7 1.5 0.10 0.10 0.97 0.90 0.77 0.75 New Zealand(2.7)4.5 1.6 1.4 0.25 (0.10)0.99 0.90 0.72 0.72 China2.0 8.2 2.5 2.3 4.35 4.10 3.30 3.50 6.50 6.30 Asia ex Japan & China(4.9)6.3 2.8 2.4 2.30 2.03 3.56 3.51 -Hong Kong(7.0)5.0 0.5 1.0 1.00 0.90 0.70 0.80 7.75 7.77 India(8.6)9.3 7.0 4.5 4.00 3.50 5.81 5.70 74.0 72.0 Indonesia(2.0)5.0 2.1 2.3 3.75 3.25 5.86 5.70 14,10013,800Korea(0.7)3.3 0.5 0.8 0.50 0.50 1.73 1.75 1,0871,050Thailand(6.3)5.2 (0.9)1.1 0.50 0.50 1.28 1.35 30.0 31.5 Latin America(7.0)4.1 8.2 7.3 6.68 5.47 5.80 6.01 -Argentina(11.0)4.0 45.0 40.0 38.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 120.0 Brazil(4.3)3.0 3.2 3.6 2.00 2.50 6.91 7.50 5.19 5.00 Chile(6.0)5.1 3.0 2.5 0.50 0.75 2.50 3.00 712 700 Colombia(7.6)4.9 3.0 2.5 1.75 1.50 5.40 5.25 3,4293,750Mexico(8.7)4.5 3.6 3.5 4.25 3.50 5.40 5.25 19.9 20.8 EEMEA(4.1)3.7 5.2 5.5 5.86 4.43 6.32 6.51 -Hungary(5.7)5.4 2.9 3.2 0.60 0.75 1.90 2.20 350 330 Poland(4.5)5.5 3.3 2.6 0.10 0.10 1.20 1.50 4.56 4.50 Russia(4.2)2.9 3.3 3.8 4.25 4.00 5.90 6.00 74.0 71.0 South Africa(8.0)2.7 3.2 3.5 3.50 3.50 9.20 9.50 15.0 15.5 Turkey(0.8)3.5 12.3 14.1 17.00 11.50 12.00 13.00 7.44 7.60 Interest rate and FX rates are year end forecasts.Long rates are 10-year yields unless otherwise indicated.The long rates aggregate excludes Argentina; Argentina is not forecasted due to distortions in the local financial market.Real growth aggregates represent 31 country forecasts not all of which are shownGrowth and inflation forecasts are calendar year averages.AB Global Economic ForecastJanuary-21Real Growth (%)Inflation (%)Official Rates (%)Long Rates (%)FX Rates vs USD 14 GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK Contributors Armando Armenta Adriaan Du Toit Darren Williams Guy Bruten Mo Ji Eric Winograd Katrina Butt Markus Schneider There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information contained herein reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. The views expressed herein may change at any time after the date of this publication. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investors personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein or its affiliates. Note to Canadian Readers: AllianceBernstein provides its investment-management services in Canada through its affiliates Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC and AllianceBernstein Canada, Inc. Note to UK Readers: This information is issued by AllianceBernstein Limited, 50 Berkeley Street, London W1J 8HA. Registered in England, No. 2551144. AllianceBernstein Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA Reference Number 147956). Note to European Readers: This information is issued by AllianceBernstein (Luxembourg) S. r.l. Socit responsabilit limite, R.C.S. Luxembourg B 34 305, 2-4, rue Eugne Ruppert, L-2453 Luxembourg. Authorised in Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). Note to Readers in Australia and New Zealand: This document has been issued by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (ABN 53 095 022 718 and AFSL 230698). Information in this document is intended only for persons who qualify as “wholesale clients,” as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth of Australia) or the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (New Zealand), and is general in nature and does not take into account any persons objectives, financial situation or needs. Note to Readers in Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Taiwan and India: This document is provided solely for the informational purposes of institutional investors and is not investment advice, nor is it intended to be an offer or solicitation, and does not pertain to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person to whom it is sent. This document is not an advertisement and is not intended for public use or additional distribution. AllianceBernstein is not licensed to, and does not purport to, conduct any business or offer any services in any of the above countries. Note to Readers in Malaysia: Nothing in this document should be construed as an invitation or offer to subscribe to or purchase any securities, nor is it an offering of fund-management services, advice, analysis or a report concerning securities. AllianceBernstein is not licensed to, and does not purport to, conduct any business or offer any services in Malaysia. Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, AllianceBernstein does not hold a capital-markets services license under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia, and does not, nor does it purport to, deal in securities, trade in futures contracts, manage funds, offer corporate finance or investment advice, or provide financial-planning services in Malaysia. Note to Singapore Readers: This document has been issued by AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd. (“ABSL,” Company Registration No. 199703364C). AllianceBernstein (Luxembourg) S. r.l. is the management company of the portfolio and has appointed ABSL as its agent for service of process and as its Singapore representative. AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd. is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Note to Taiwan Readers: AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide investment advice or portfolio-management services or deal in securities in Taiwan. The products/services illustrated here may not be available to Taiwan residents. Before proceeding with your investment decision, please consult your investment advisor. Note to Hong Kong Readers: This document is issued in Hong Kong by AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited (聯博香港有限公司), a licensed entity regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. This document has not been reviewed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Note to Readers in Japan: This document has been provided by AllianceBernstein Japan Ltd. AllianceBernstein Japan Ltd. is a registered investment-management company (registration number: Kanto Local Financial Bureau no. 303). It is also a member of the Japan Investment Advisers Association; the Investment Trusts Association, Japan; the Japan Securities Dealers Association; and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. The product/service may not be offered or sold in Japan; this document is not made to solicit investment. 2020 AllianceBernstein L.P.

2021-02-07 15页 5星级

【研报】2021年宏观经济展望：把握复苏先机-20201229（26页）.pdf

20212021 年宏观经济展望年宏观经济展望：把握复苏先机：把握复苏先机 主要观点主要观点： 疫苗是影响疫苗是影响 2 2021021 年全球经济预期的修复路径的关键变量。年全球经济预期的修复路径的.

2020-12-30 26页 5星级

【研报】2021年国内宏观经济展望：政策回归常态创新行稳致远-2020201204（52页）.pdf

宏 观 研 究 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 经 济 定 期 报 告 宏 观 经 济 定 期 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分请务必阅读正文之后的免.

2020-12-11 52页 5星级

东方金诚：2020年全球主要经济体表现及2021年经济复苏格局展望（18页）.pdf

值得一提的是，上述四个GDP损失低于均值的国家中，越南(2.9%)、中国(2.3%)和土耳其(1.8%)三个国家尽管2020年全年经济增速低于年初预期，但仍实现了正增长，而哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值则下降.

2020-12-01 18页 5星级

2020全球疫情对中国汽车行业市场需求影响评估分析产业研究报告（28页）.pptx

2020年深度行业分析研究报告,目录,1.全球宏观与产业背景,2.全球汽车市场展望,3.全球疫情对中国市场影响评估,疫情全球化蔓延持续恶化,截止目前，新型冠状病毒疫情在全球区域持续传播，全球确诊病例超.

2020-09-27 29页 5星级