Time to recharge:Accelerating the rollout of EV charging infrastructureBExecutive summaryGetting electric vehicle(EV)charging right is essential for meeting national EV targets and,consequently,a crucial component in achieving national net-zero ambitions.Progress in many countries remains patchy,and even the best performers have ways to goin meeting forecasted levels of charge-point demand in 2030 and beyond.By one estimate,the world will need to invest over US$1 trillion1 in EV charging infrastructure by 2030,in line with commitments to the Paris Agreement.Unlocking this investment within that timeframe is dependent on concerted and coordinated action from various stakeholder groups to overcome the triad of critical challenges our research has shown tobe slowing EV charging rollouts.Firstly,in the public sphere,roles and responsibilities are often not well defined,leading to the duplication of authority or gaps in guidance and coverage.Theseinefficient public processes put the onus on local authorities or charge point operators(CPOs)to chart their own paths,leading to suboptimal outcomes for users.To avoid this,national governments must clearly delegate these roles and responsibilities,ensuring full coverage of planning and the administration of funding,and the installation and maintenance of charging infrastructure.On the ground,local authorities should be supported with capacity-andskills-building efforts to help them create localtargets and processes that help themselves,and CPOs,to deliver against them.The second roadblock is the uncertain commercial and risk dynamics facing CPOs.High upfront costs and low levels of utilization means that many CPOs are struggling to turn a profit.To cushion this,governments have a central role to play in incentivizing investments but must do so strategically;subsidies should push private operators to address the specific needs of the localmarket,like rural charger coverage,or exorbitant installation costs.Concurrently,CPOs must explore all routes to develop a sustainable competitive advantage in theshort and medium term.One way to do this is to find opportunities to extend services up and down the value chain.In parallel,insurers should engage with CPOs to better understand risks,enabling them to offer coverage that will further enable investment.Finally,grid management issues underpin the speedof charge point deployment.Worries about grid reliability and capacity can be mitigated through theadoption of smart charging a technology that allows the unidirectional charging of EVs to start and stop in response to electricity supply and cost factors at any given point in time.EV uptake may even switch from being a strain on the grid to a critical supporter,if regulations allow vehicle batteries to store excess power that can be sold back to the grid during peak demand.As it stands,a lack of public policies,national standards and uneven stakeholder awareness is slowing down progress in this space.These inhibitors must be prioritized as the pressure on the grid grows with rising electricitydemand and climate-related stressors.ContentsIntroduction 1Understanding the drivers of the global EV market 3#1:Inefficient public processes 61.1 Sub-challenge:Poorly defined responsibilities at national level 71.2 Sub-challenge:Limitations on local authority capability 9#2:Uncertain commercial and risk dynamics 112.1 Sub-challenge:Charge point operators struggle with return on investment 122.2 Sub-challenge:Relative immaturity of the EV charging insurance market 16#3:Grid management issues 163.1 Sub-challenge:EV charging places an increasing strain on the grid 173.2 Sub-challenge:The lack of clarity over V2X roadblocks,costs,andbenefitsinhibits investment 19Concluding thoughts 22Acknowledgements 231IntroductionTransport relies more greatly on fossil fuels than any other sector,accounting for 37%of CO2 emissions from enduse sectors in 2021.It comes as no surprise,then,that in an era of net-zero commitments,governments have made sustainable transportation a key policy objective and are pressing for quick results.The widespread adoption of electric vehicles(EVs)is a part of this journey,but one that will need to be complemented by investments in hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles and sustainable fuels.The lifecycle emissions of EVs today in Europe are already 66%-69%lower than a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle(ICEV),according to research from the International Council on Clean Transportation(ICCT)2 published in 2021.But a more accurate calculation of the potential environmental benefit of EVs over traditional gasoline-powered vehicles requires that the lifecycleanalysis be conducted on a country-by-country basis(see sidebaron left).Backed by strong national government and supranational support,the global EV market has seentremendous growth over the past 10 years and ispoised to grow at 21%annually until 2026.3 To powerthis transition,governments will have to address the biggest bottleneck to e-mobility the availability of charging infrastructure(seeExhibit 1 below).Exhibit 1:Top consumer concerns when considering purchasing an EVBrazil n=184Canada n=193China n=302France n=167Germany n=188Italy n=236Mexico n=202Spain n=200UK n=176US n=208Global n=2056Availability of charging stations41TTFVaQTRER%Distance the vehicle can travel on a single charge237(9#(6923%Availability of financial incentives266(6)C2&1%Source:Oliver Wyman Forum Global Consumer Sentiment Survey March 2022Given the complex interplay between stakeholders,no one group can single-handedly change the speed of an EV charging rollout in a given country.2Charging infrastructure refers to the equipment that connects EVs to an electricity source to recharge its battery.While much of EV charging takes place at home through a regular wall socket,readily accessible public-charging infrastructure remains a key enabler that will ensure more EVs are bought by individuals who dont have personal parking spots.The ratio of EVs to charge points varies tremendously across countries,largely due to assorted approaches to regulation,incentivization,planning,and differences in the quality of underlying energy systems.Today,there are only roughly half a million public fast-charging points globally and just over a million slow chargers.The world will need 5.4 million publicly available fast chargers and 10 million slow chargers4 in order for countries to fully implement their national targets for 2030 and 2050,according to the International Energy Agencys Announced Pledges Scenarios,introduced in 2021 to show to what extent announced ambitions and targets are on path to deliver emissions reductions in line with 2050 net-zero goals.For most countries,meeting the needs of their targeted EV fleets will require a much more aggressive rate of deployment of chargers over the next few years.Given the complex interplay between stakeholders,no one group can single-handedly change the speed of EV charging rollout in a given country.Some stakeholders act as enablers of the rollout,such as public-sector actors like national and local authorities,utilities,and insurers.For their part,EV manufacturersand charge point operators(CPOs)(comprising an increasingly diverse group of sub-actors)will move up and down the value chain to offer vehicle charging and add-on services to a wide-ranging set of customers.This report tackles three of the biggest challenges that are holding back the rollout of charging infrastructure around the world:Inefficient public processes,an uncertain commercial and risk landscape,and grid management issues.After exploring the drivers for the EV market,the following chapters explore each challenge,identifying obstacles and matching them against recommendations for key stakeholders,supported by examples of action taken from around the world.DO EVS HAVE LOWER EMISSIONS THAN PETROL-OR DIESEL-POWERED VEHICLES OVER THEIR LIFECYCLE?European Environment Agency research states that most life cycle assessments(LCAs)show that EVs havelower life-cycle greenhouse gas(GHG)emissionsthan internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs).In general,although GHG emissions associated with the raw materials and production stage of EVs are 1.3-2 times higher than for ICEVs,this can be more than offset by lower per-kilometer use-stage emissions depending on the electricity generation source.The electricity generation mix of a country has an influence on the carbon intensity of all life-cycle stages,but most strongly on use-stage emissions.Charging EVs with electricity generated from coal results in higher life-cycle emissions than those produced by ICEVs,whereas using wind power life cycle emissions ofan EV could result in emissions almost 90%lower than an equivalent ICEV.Source:EEA55WHATS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FAST AND SLOW EV CHARGERS?There are four main charging speeds for EVs,as seen in Exhibit 3,but most people refer to either slow or fast chargers.Slow chargers are best equipped for personal use and can be easily plugged into a socket in peoples homes for overnight charging.Fast chargers can take as little as 30 minutes to get a car to fully charged.These high-powered chargers are designed for commercial and industrial use,requiring a direct connection to the grid.Given their speed,fast chargers are more commonly seen at public sites,for en route charging.As EVs penetration increases and countries electrify more use cases,accessibility to fast chargers will be especially important to support this.3Understanding the drivers of the global EV marketGovernment incentivization and increasingly environmentally conscious car-owners have been the catalysts for the recent fast growth of the EV market.Toensure the continued rise in levels of EV-adoption,the rollout of EV charging points must speed up considerably.4While it may seem obvious to most observers that EVs are here to stay,many people would be surprised to learn that the electric vehicle is not a completely new innovation and that interest in EVs has come andgone before.First invented around 1830,EVs gained in popularity in the 1890s and by the turn of the century accounted for about one-third of vehicles in the United States.Atthe time,EVs had several advantages over gasoline-powered vehicles,which had to be cranked by hand to start and were noisy to drive.Over time,though,EVs disadvantages came to the fore.Those included long charging times,a lack of charging infrastructure,and concerns about the distances these vehicles could travel concerns that sound familiar to anyone with an interest in the EV sector today.WHAT REALLY IS AN EV?An electric vehicle(EV)is a vehicle that uses anelectric motor instead of an internal combustion engine(ICE).While EVs may be an umbrella term referring to any vehicle powered by electricity from a battery,for the purpose of this report,EVs refer only to plug-in electric vehicles,including plug in hybrid EVs(PHEVs),and batteryEVs(BEVs),excluding fuel cell electricvehiclesor hybrid electric vehicles.There have been two drivers of the growth of the EV market in recent years:Government-funded incentives and consumers increased environmental awareness.Governments around the world have been encouraging EV sales through the presence offinancial and non-financial incentives to help manage consumer concerns about higher upfront costs,electricity prices,or range anxiety.These incentives are intended to help EV adoption stay on track to meeting government targets,which in turn are aligned to national net-zero ambitions(seeExhibit 2 for more details).Consumers are becoming increasingly conscious of their own environmental footprint and the reduced emissions from an EV rank highly in decision-making of current and prospective EV owners.One study from the US shows that almost 50%of current owners5 rank environmental reasons as their number one factor for purchasing an EV,whilst another study shows that 70%of potential EV buyers6 view environmental reasons as the key convincing factor.Given that outside of China,EV prices have been holding firm or increasing of late,consumer sentiment will continue to play an important role in further adoption.However,for EV adoption targets to be realized,there needs to be a step change in EV-charging infrastructure in most countries.In the past five years,the rollout of charging infrastructure in many countries has gathered pace;but this has been from a low base,and progress has been uneven.For example,nearly 50%of charging points in the EU can currently be found in just two countries Netherlands(29.4%)and Germany(19.4%).The other half is split between the other 25 EU nations,which collectively account for 90%of the EUs surface area7 or 77%in passenger car parc(passenger cars in use)and about 70%in new passenger car registrations,to put this into automotive terms.5Exhibit 2:National progress against EV adoption targets in selected countriesCOUNTRYEV TARGETSEV SALES SHARE(CARS,2021)TOTAL EV SALES FROM 2017-2021SELECTED EV ADOPTION INCENTIVE MEASURESNorwayAll new cars sold by 2025 should be zero-emission(electric or hydrogen)8629,879No annual road tax(1996-2022)Free municipal parkingNo toll feesAccess to bus lanesIcelandAll new passenger cars should emit zero emissions,by around 202772%9,364Exempt from import dutiesExemptions and discounts for VATFree municipal parkingBan of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030SwedenNational target of becoming carbon-neutral by 2045 will require 2.5 million EVs and PHEVs433,279Rebates for EV purchase(2012-2022)Ban of new petrol or diesel car sales after 2030Denmark1 million zero-emission light duty vehicles by 203035F,953Exemptions from registration taxExemptions from ownership taxSubsidies parking feesSubsidies for the purchase of EVs by municipalities and companiesNetherlands 100%share of ZEVs in passenger LDV sales by 203030#1,084Subsidies for purchase of EVsTax exemptions for leasing2000 incentive for the purchase of used BEVsGermany15 million BEVs on the roadby 203026g4,843Subsidies for the purchase of BEVsUnited KingdomAll sales of passenger cars to be BEVs or FCEVs by 20351966,947Phase out passenger ICEV sales by 2030Phase out ICE small trucks by 2035 and larger trucks by 2040Discount on London Congestion ChargeExemption from vehicle excise dutyFranceEnd sales of new fossil-fuel powered passenger cars and light commercial vehicles by 20401980,701Grants for purchase of EV for individuals and companiesChina20%share of new EVs in LDV and HDV sales by 2025 and 40%of all vehicles soldto be EVs by 203016%5,783,371Zero emissions vehicle mandate:Vehicle manufacturer and importer must make/import at least 10%EVsSubsidies to manufacturers of EVsSubsidies for purchase of EVsExemption from sales taxUSAEVs should make up 50%ofnew vehicle sales by 20305%1,282,638Tax reductions in various statesRebate program for EVs in various statesFree parking in various statesVAT=Value Added Tax,LDV=Light Duty Vehicle,HDV=Heavy Duty Vehicle,PHEV=Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle,FCEV=Fuel Cell Electric VehicleSource:IEA86#1:Inefficient public processesThe actions of public sector authorities can hinder the efficient rollout of EV-charging infrastructure.National-level responsibilities should cover demand planning and the setting of key standards to ensure charge point usability and safety.Local authorities must be supported to ensure they have the capacity and skills to localize targets and create an enabling environment for CPOs to deliver against them.71.1 Sub-challenge:Poorly defined responsibilities at national levelWhats the challenge?Public-sector roles and responsibilities are sometimesnot clearly enough defined,which can result in authorities duplicating efforts or leaving gapsin guidance.This leads to stakeholders such aslocal authorities or CPOs charting their own path,resulting in sub-optimal outcomes for users.Examplesinclude countries that have so many different EV charging-station payment platforms that it can put off consumers from buying an EV,orinstances where details of charger locations are not available in a single open-source platform.Also,as more charging points come online,cyberattacks targeting these assets will inevitably increase,and sodelays in setting national standards increase therisk to users,CPOs,and the grid.Recommended actionsEnsure coordination and a clear delineationofroles and responsibilitiesNational governments must ensure there is a clear delegation of roles and responsibilities to support EVcharging rollouts.To date,governments have tailored approaches to charging rollouts based on their existing competencies and precedents for rolling out infrastructure such as broadband.For some countries,this may mean the creation of new workinggroups and coordination platforms that tackle charging as a subsector of its own,working inparallel to related sectors such as energy,transport,and industry.Many countries have benefitted from involving local leadership in helpingset the nationalagenda;however,governments with strong central coordination may see a more efficient rollout bydesignating roles for local stakeholders that satisfy overall domestic agendas.In the Netherlands,the Dutch government took responsibility for bringing together stakeholders that represented public interests in infrastructure and national enterprise,grid operators,knowledge platforms,and the association of municipalities.Private-sector stakeholders were also involved in the government-led process to create the Netherlands National Charging Infrastructure Agenda.9 The Agenda sets out a multiyear plan to deliver on EV charging infrastructure targets,with clear actions forstakeholders to proceed in areas such as ensuring that targets are localized and executable,charging data and pricing are transparent,and grid impacts areanticipated and mitigated.China took a different approach in its 2021-2035 NEV Industrial Development Plan.10 The plan not only includes clear targets for charging infrastructure,it also assigns implementing entities,with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technologies as lead,alongside other ministries,commissions,government departments,industry and research leaders,and a clear role for local governments.More centralized in nature,this plan also has a view of likely shifts in the industry,with guidance on expected convenience levels of technologies including battery swapping(where charging infrastructure comes in the form of swapping stations for depleted batteries to be automatedly replaced with fully charged ones).In the United States,the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(BIL)set an ambitious target to increase EV sales by 50%by 2030.Formula funding of US$7.5 billion was dedicated to building a national charging network of 500,000 charging stations.Insupport of this agenda,BIL11 directed that a new body,the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation,be created jointly by the Department of Energy and the Department of Transport.The new body will maximize this funding by supporting and overseeing a range of investments in new transportation infrastructure,including EV charging in rural,disadvantaged,and hard-to-reach areas.The body will work on topics including the designation of national EV charging standards,as well as providing guidance and supportto states and local authorities.8Prioritize the usability and safety of charging platformsGovernment authorities should take preemptive measures to ensure that charging points are easy to use and that the interests and safety of users are protected through regulation and legislation.Different manufacturers equip their cars and chargerswith connectors that are not universally compatible.Government-mandated standards for charge point plug interoperability are key to buildingowner confidence.Exhibit 3 shows some current charging specifications across regions and brands,mapped to different charging speeds.Such variations cause some anxiety for potential EV owners,so steps to improve in-country or in-region interoperability would go along way to overcoming such concerns.Exhibit 3:Charging specifications across regionsSPEEDLEVELCURRENTREGIONSlow 3-5 kW Fast 7-25 kW Rapid 50 kWLevel 1 1-3 kWLevel 2 8-25 kWACJapanChinaUSA/CanadaEuropeTeslaType 1 J1772GB/TType 1 J1772Type 2 MennekesLevel 3 50-350 kWLevel 4 1000 kWDCCHAdeMOGB/TCCS 1CCS2Note:All CHAdeMO are naturally DC chargers,they require an additional J1772 connector to achieve Level 1 or 2 charging;Currently,the only company to manufacture Level 4 chargers is Tesla;Teslas sold in China have dual charging ports to comply with mandatory charging standards.Source:Marsh McLennan Advantage9The UK has a holistic guidance regulation12 that sets device-level requirements that must be met for all smart charge points for sale in the country.It regulates the data transfer of chargers,enforces electricity supplier interoperability,establishes safety provisions and cybersecurity standards,and requires a measuring system that is visible to the owner.These regulations enable a minimum level ofaccess,transparency,and security for users.Rolling out national payment platforms will give EV drivers open and easy access to all charging stations,while also serving as a source of data to better understand the user habits and needs from EV charging infrastructure.Norways EV Association gives users access to charging units all across Europe through a single charging chip13 that allows drivers to charge at more than 275,000 charging points,after which they receive a single bill to be paid through the Ladeklubben mobile application.Governments should also focus on alleviating customer concerns about pricing in a user-friendly way.The NetherlandsCharging Without Any Surprisesprogram14 sets service and price transparency benchmarks,and defines clear complaints and reporting processes,as well as havingstrong compliance and monitoring standards.Cybersecurity is critical to EV charging infrastructure,where such incidents can result in risks to user safety,commercial loss for charging hubs,and compromises to various types of data including customer and payment systems as well as vehicle data such as telematics.Governments must be proactive in specifying common standards and best practices for the security of devices used in the charging control systems.The Netherlands has set basic requirements for cybersecurity15 with respect to communication protocols,like the Open Charge Point Protocol(OCPP)and Open Charge Point Interface(OCPI)as well as the safety of charging through proof of identification.Other requirements have been made for charging infrastructure regarding future-proofing design,cryptographic algorithms and protocols,system-hardening measures,and enhancing resilience.1.2 Sub-challenge:Limitations on localauthority capabilityWhats the challenge?Local authorities are often underfunded and overstretched,limiting their skills and understanding of the most efficient and effective strategies and processes to deploy a charger rollout across their jurisdictions,affecting the cost,timeline,and ease of planning,installing,and maintaining charge points.This is often due to a mismatch in the technical and planning skills of the workforce,delays in approvals,and trouble getting access to the grid,amongst other roadblocks.Recommended actionsEnhance municipal authority capabilities toensure efficient local rolloutsCreating resources and platforms for charge point installers to easily understand the procedures,authorities,costs,and associated timelines will address confusion in the market over the processesinvolved in charge point deployment.National governments must ensure that local authorities are well supported in developing a localized EV charging roadmap that is aligned with national ambitions.Failure to do so will result in critical bottlenecks,which could ultimately slow adoption of EVs.Although some municipal authorities have been early leaders in incentivizing,managing,and delivering EV charging in their jurisdiction,many others are playing catch-up.This can be seen in the UK where,until recently,only 28%of local authorities had published rollout strategies despite the national government having set national EV charging targets in 2020.In response,the UK government announced in early 2022 a new fund16 that would both provide funding for infrastructure provision to local authorities and set aside 10%of funding to focus solely on upskilling the authorities themselves.This includes a dedicated effort towards assisting 10departments that are responsible for planning and delivering charging infrastructure.Further support will follow in the form of a knowledge hub for local authorities that will contain guidance and toolkits to support community engagement,procurement,andstakeholder management.In Australia,the New South Wales government has invested$131 million in developing its charging network through its Electric Vehicle Strategy.17 The strategy prioritizes empowering local councils to nurture pilot schemes of roadside charging infrastructure.The outcome of these pilots will be used to inform the future development of EV parking-and-charging guidelines for local councils in the state.To give the workforce the skills and resources to underpin this rollout,$318 million is being invested in skills partnerships with the Commonwealth and itsJobTrainer program to create future-focused careers in the transport sector.A capable and supported local authority will be able to ease local EV charging hassles in many areas,including streamlining permitting processes,updatingbuilding codes to include EV-charging requirements,and designating standards for technical matters such as data collection and use.It is,of course,incumbent on CPOs to ensure they are fully aware of local regulations and to work with authorities,where appropriate,to refine and improve processes over time.Combining leadership at the national level whilst also arming local authorities with the capabilities to plan and execute municipal charging infrastructure deployment will speed up the development of a robust and accessible charging network.11#2:Uncertain commercial and risk dynamicsAs the EV charging industry evolves and matures,it is essential that stakeholders find ways to speed up investment in the face of short-term challenges in achieving financial returns.Governments must continue targeted incentivization;CPOs need to innovate with their business models;and insurers need toengage with CPOs to further their understanding of key risks.122.1 Sub-challenge:Charge point operators struggle with return on investmentWhats the challenge?High upfront costs and low levels of utilization are twokey reasons why many CPOs arestruggling to make a profit.The International Council on Clean Transportation(ICCT)estimated that,in 2020,the US had an average charger utilization rate of a mere 1.8 hours per day.18 Real-world data19 from 2021 has shown usage intensity of charging stations in Germany to be between 15%-20%.These are just some reasons why many traditional sources of private investment in infrastructure have been hesitant to commit to the sector to date.As a result,governmentshave had to intervene and incentivize private participation through subsidies and grants.Recommended actionsGovernment incentives for private operators must match incentive type,size,andconditions to specific market needsWhile installation costs remain high and many charging points have low utilization levels,governments must continue to incentivize private participation in national charging infrastructure rollouts.However,interventions should be targeted to provide the greatest incentive to deliver charging points that otherwise wouldnt happen,such as rural or socioeconomically disadvantaged areas,and sites requiring expensive grid upgrades or high-powered chargers for freight vehicles.Where technologies and demand are proven,and CPO competition is high,governments can consider scaling back or removing incentives so an ongoing review of measures is essential.Examples of government incentives that focus on specific market needs are shown in Exhibit 4.Exhibit 4:Examples of tailored government incentives to support specific EV charging objectivesTARGETINITIATIVESUMMARYEncourage fast chargingInfrastructure Subsidies,Austria(2022)20Subsidies for EV infrastructure are granted based on charging speed.To encourage fleet charging,companies and public entities will receive a highest amount of maximum of 30,000 for the purchase and installation of DC-charging stations designed to accommodate heavy goods,with power greater or equal to 100kW.Low Emission Transport Fund,NZ(2022)21A co-funding initiative that targets the demonstration of vehicles and technology or the adoption of public infrastructure.It includes an explicit focus on hyper power and destination chargers and public charging hubs.Increase rural accessUSDA Rural Development for EVInfrastructure,US(2017-2022)22As an array of programs,the US Department of Agriculture(USDA)has integrated eligibility mechanisms targeting EV infrastructure within existing finance and funding programs related to electric infrastructure,community facilities building,and other infrastructure loans and projects that promote funding for EV chargers in rural areas.Mitigate utilization risksEV charging initiative(CHRI),Canada(2022)23In this$500 million financing initiative,the Canada Infrastructure Bank(CIB)shares utilization risk by aligning loan repayment with utilization levels.In compensation for sharing the risk,the CIB benefits from upside participation through increased interest rates when utilization levels exceed expectations.Land lease through revenue sharing,India(2022)24To address land access and utilization risk,public land is being made available for the installation of public charging stations,on a revenue-sharing basis instead of fixed rental costs,at a stable rate of 1/kWh of electricity used for charging to be paid to the landowner.Overcome prohibitively high costsRapid Charging Fund,UK(2020)25A 500 million commitment to EV charging infrastructure,the fund aims to roll out fast charging across motorways and major roads.Funds can be used to partially cover the prohibitively high costs of upgrading grid connections necessary for high-powered access.Tariff reductions(TURPE)reduction,France(2020)26France has introduced a tariff reduction where up to 75%of grid connection costs may be assumed by the grid operator to lower costs of connecting to the grid.Source:Marsh McLennan Advantage analysis13CPOs should explore new opportunities to gainmaximum competitive advantageCPOs must target actions that set them on a path to profitability.There is no one-size-fits-all solution,so CPOs must determine a strategy that best complements their existing positioning.Emphasis should be placed on anticipating how their customers needs will develop,as well as reacting to shifts in the competitive landscape.In laying out a path to profitability,CPOs must consider three avenues in particular.1.Bundling of services to offer a more rounded customer propositionOne potential path to CPO profitability in the medium term may be found via developing or acquiring solutions that allow the firm to move up or down the EV-charging value chain.Research has shown that the US EV charge point installation needs will require 22,720 job-years27(ideal amount of work done by one person in one working day)nationwide,from 2021 to 2030,where contractors,including electricians and utility-line workers,make up 65%of these needs.Itis no surprise to see CPOs look to proactively secure workforce capacity.In August 2022,Wallbox acquired COIL28,a charging-installation firm which allowed the CPO to both secure vital workforce headcount and skills,as well as offer clients a one-stop solution.Another example can be seen in the case of ChargePoints acquisitions of hastobe29 and ViriCiti.30 Through its purchase of hastobe,ChargePoint gained easy compatibility with Europes existing charging platforms,systems,and hardware.The ViriCiti deal on the other hand helped with their fleet offerings,including route planning,battery monitoring,charge-point monitoring,and vehicle maintenance.Fleetofferings factored into Fords 2021 acquisition ofElectriphi31,a provider of charging management and fleet monitoring software.Fordstated the reason for the purchase was to deliver a single-source solution for commercial fleet depot-charging customers.2.Leverage synergies with owner/investor portfolio businessesGiven the fast-moving competitive landscape,CPOsshould ensure they can identify and maximize potential synergies with owners and investors.For firms like BP and Shell,this may involve using the footprint of their existing portfolio of petrol stations to provide a faster route to rolling out charging solutions at those same sites.One CPO,Connected Kerb,acted to tie new investment32 in their own business with access to the investors other assets.In September 2022,Aviva Investors committed 110 million to the CPO,but also gave access to its pan-European real estate portfolio for charging points to be installed.Another example is Voltera33,a newly launched turnkey charging operator focused on fleets.A spinoff from the data center company EdgeConneX,which is owned by EQT Infrastructure,Voltera will benefit from EdgeConneXs experience in delivering data centers that face similar challenges of site identification,land acquisition,permitting,and high-power grid access.143.Strategic de-risking of key risksIdentifying and mitigating strategic risks is another route to competitive advantage.CPOs must develop an understanding of the risks their specific business models face and then consider potential actions to address them.Ionity34 is an example of an alliance of original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)working together to create their own charging network in Europe.By creating the single-brand alliance,the constituent firms were able to help alleviate customers range anxiety because they were delivering charge points that were all built to a common standard.In November 2021,BlackRock became a shareholder in Ionity with investment that isexpected to see the alliance operate over 7,000 charge points by 2025(from over 1,900 in November 2022).Similarly,in 2021 Wallbox acquired ARES Technology35 to pursue vertical integration to shore up the supply of key components(printed circuit boards)in a time of ongoing supply chain uncertainty chain(see Exhibit 5 for examples of how Wallbox has changeditscompetitive positioning since 2020).Exhibit 5:Highlights from the competitive strategy of charge point manufacturer Wallbox30 April 2020Wallbox acquires Intelligent Solutions,a Nordic turnkey solutions distributor AcquisitionMarch 2022Expanding customer base by offering their chargers,smart power meters,and pedestals to customers of private electrical wholesale distributor,City Electric Supply online and in over 535 stores across the USAugust 2022Wallbox buys ARES Electronics,its supplier of printed circuit boards to ensure a consistent supplyWallbox buys COIL a US-focused EV charging installation firmSeptember 2020Acquisition of Electromaps,a CPO that gives them access to both a CPO network and a software platform that helps customers find charge points and payJuly 2021Team-up with SunPower to provide their charger customers with the option to add solar or energy storage to their homesAllyship with Otova,a Norwegian company,to offer their customers Wallbox smart chargers alongside their home solar power systems September 2021Wallbox unveils Sirius,an energy management solution that uses bidirectional chargers to maximize energy use in commercial buildingsJuly 2022Partnership with Svea Solar,Swedens largest solar energy company,to offer residential customers Wallbox products alongside their solar offerings 202020212022PartnershipProduct developmentSource:Wallbox,Marsh McLennan Advantage analysis152.2 Sub-challenge:Relative immaturity of the EV-charging insurance marketWhats the challenge?CPOs have found that securing insurance coverage for their operations can be a slow and complicated process,with a severely limited set of options to choose from.This stems from insurers lacking sufficient operational data to assess,combined with the initial sense that EV-charging technologies and use cases bring unknownor misunderstood risks.Recommended actionsThe insurance market must engage with EV-charging stakeholders to better understand business models and true risksIn some markets,insurers have been slow to offer EV-specific products,citing a lack of understanding ofthe technologies and uncertainties linked to evolving government legislation and regulations.Insurers should become more proactive in engaging with CPOs,public authorities,EV manufacturers and brokers to develop a better understanding of the true risk profile of charging operations.These discussions will give insurers a detailed grasp of the required coverage across EV-charging stations,street charging,home/office solution,and depots,given their different EV technologies and use cases.One way to build comfort with EV coverages is for insurers to identify existing coverage proxies from other assets or businesses that have similar risk profiles.Examples of this include viewing street lighting as a proxy for street charging or petrol stations as a proxy for EV equivalents.Risk profiles willnever be identical,however.One key differenceisthe extended and often unmanned period that EVcharging takes versus traditional vehicle refueling,which creates additional third-party liabilities that need to be considered and priced correctly.Such risks could include slips,trips,and falls from passers-by over charging cables and damages presented by thermal events involving consumer vehicles.Given increasing EV demand and government supportfor EV charging around the world,CPOs are growing quickly thanks to more-efficient installation of charge points.To allow CPOs to move fast enough,insurance coverage needs to apply for all installations,and it isnt practical for CPOs to update insurers on progress on a real-time basis.To combat this,one UK-based insurer agreed to cover a CPOs operations following the payment of an upfront premium,followed by receiving a quarterly declaration fromtheCPO aboutchargers in operation.Regular engagement with CPOs will also allow insurers to educate CPOs on the risks driving premium costs and to discuss ways to mitigate them.One example may involve the risk of lithium-ion battery fires.EV-charging station operators could be encouraged to provide a way to mitigate the exposures presented by a burning vehicle at a charging point.Apart from risk understanding and modelling,the investment arm of large insurers should further explore investments into EV-charging infrastructure as a positive contribution to their asset-management strategies helping them to relocate exposures and meet decarbonization targets.One example of this in action is the recent 110 million Aviva Investors backing for CPO Connected Kerb,asmentioned earlierin this report.16#3:Grid Management IssuesConcerns about electricity grid reliability and capacity have slowed private investment in EV-charging infrastructure.In the short term,it is important to use strategies to minimize EV chargings strain on the grid;and,in the medium term,needed new investment in net-zero friendly power generation can be moderated by utilizing EV batteries to store energy temporarily and feeding it back into the grid when needed.173.1 Sub-challenge:EV charging places an increasing strain on the gridWhats the challenge?The growing number of EVs in circulation means that demand on the electricity grid is rising.Levels of spare capacity in an electricity grid vary by location but,in all cases,peak-hour demand is when the strain is greatest.EV charging leads to strain on the grid in two ways.The first is during peak hours(usually late afternoon to mid-evening)when users return from work and charge their car.The second is due to the installation of fast chargers,which require significant supporting investment to ensure that the local grid can remain functioning and resilient.The impact of extreme weather events on overall energy demand and efficiency of supply may even increase this strainin the future.Recommended actionsUse smart charging to shift EV-charging demand from peak hoursBroad sets of stakeholders must work collaboratively to scale the uptake of smart-charging solutions.Smart charging refers to technology that allows one-directional charging of EVs to start and stop in response to factors linked to electricity supply and cost at a given point in time.Various research projectsestimate that the adoption of basic smart charging technology could reduce EV-led increases in peak-period electricity demand by 14%-40%,depending on the time of day,the total number of EVson the roads,and the technologies involved.In its simplest form,EV owners can receive prompts from the grid operator when to charge their vehicles so that they benefit from non-peak tariffs and/or align with on-site renewable energy generation via solar panels or on-site battery storage.However,a range of practical,technical,and regulatory factors means that smart charging is currently not ubiquitous.Governments should take the lead in providing an environment for smart charging.Recent UK government legislation36 ensuresthat all charge points will have smart functionality,with particular standards defined thatcover points including default settings to charge at non-peak times,technical communication protocols,cyber-risk protection,user safety,and electricity supplier interoperability.Governments can also lead collaboration efforts among stakeholders to widen smart charging uptake.One public-led program37 in the UK has brought together stakeholders from the public and private sector,including CPOs,energy providers,and research bodies,to deliver on-street,public,smart-charging solutions in the countryfor thefirst time.Owners of multi-residence or commercial buildings may find the adoption of smart charging to be essential.Combining smart charging with smart-building management software can allow site managers to ensure that site-level electrical load limits are not breached when multiple EVs are connected simultaneously.Finally,authorities should ensure that smart charging is available without the need for expensive investment.In August 2022,the California Public Utilities Commission approved the use of statewide sub-metering38 to allow an EVs energy consumption to be measured independently of an electricity meters broader consumption.This lets EV owners access reduced tariffs targeted solely for EV energy consumption without having to go through the expense of installing an EV-specific meter.18Exhibit 6:Benefits of smart charging225Household savings annually in the UK by using smart charging technologies to optimize electricityuse in EV charging3959%Power peak reduction of total EV load in commercial buildings through smart charging,compared to unmanaged charging40$120-690 millionSpending to be avoided in California grid operatingcosts annually(up to 10%of total costs)4150%Potential reduction in investment required to update the distribution network necessary in anambitious EV uptake scenario in Germany4285%Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generated for EVs in a fully managedcharging scenario4340%Reduction in renewable energy curtailment,relative to unmanaged EV charging44Explore charging hardware that minimizes grid strainCPOs should invest in fast-chargingsolutions that can be used either off-gridorvia existing low-voltage grid connections.Thisensures these services can be made available faster and cheaper than alternatives that require costly andtime-consuming grid enhancements.Pilot projects around the world are driving significantinnovation in this space.In Europe,oneexample is E.ON and VWs solution,Drive Booster,which can be installed without civil worksand uses a normal power connection to charge two vehicles simultaneously at a rate of up to 150kW.45 Alterative solutions include those by L-Charge46,whichoffer mobile charging andfixed,off-gridcharging that is powered by an LNG-or hydrogen-powered generator.Similarly,battery energy storage systems(BESS)can be co-located47 with charging points to offer more flexibility.In New York City,Centrica and Con Edison are working together to deliver BESS-powered fast charging.Centrica will charge the batteries overnightto take advantage of lower tariffs.Charging points that can be co-located with solar energy generation should also be prioritized,though such solutions may not qualify as fast charging.Oneoffering by Paired Power48 delivers Level 2 charging to consumers and can be installed by just two workers in less than a day.An innovation by US-based Rivian49 makes use of both BESS and on-site solar power through their off-road DC fast chargers atstate and national parks and beaches.These publicly assessable chargers make use of BESS that charge using on-site photovoltaics during off-peak hours,storing thepower for peak charging times.193.2 Sub-challenge:The lack of clarity over V2X roadblocks,costs,and benefits inhibits investmentWhats the challenge?Vehicle-to-everything,or V2X,is an overarching term referring to the bi-directional transfer of energy from the battery of an EV to other energy-consuming destinations,including the grid(V2G),homes(V2H),and buildings(V2B).It means that energy that is generated during one part of the day can be stored with an EV battery and then discharged back to a building or the wider grid when it is needed at a later point.V2X technology has the potential to deliver wide-ranging benefits that could provide savings to vehicleowners while making the grid greener andmore reliable.If V2X adoption issues were resolved,broader EV adoption would likely rise at a faster rate,and investment from the private sector in V2X-enabled charging would follow swiftly.However,a lack of public policy setting,the want of national standards,and uneven stakeholder education has slowed V2X progress in many countries and occasionally allowed some unfounded concerns tomanifest among key stakeholders.Exhibit 7 showcases a theoretical V2X market in action,highlighting the key stakeholders that need to work together to deliver a scaled V2X environment,along with the routes of energy transferbetween destinations.Exhibit 7:An overview of V2X and its benefitsEnergy generationGridV2X-enabled chargerVehicle(or fleet)Building(Home/Office/Other)V2XBENEFITS OF V2XTo the grid operatorTo the vehicle ownerTo the EV manufacturerA more stable,resilient grid with reduced CAPEX needs to support higher capacity.Financial rewards gained through participation in V2X charging and peace of mind in knowing that EV battery can support home/office energy needs in event of power outage.Offering this to customers can be seen as a value added service,which comes at a premium price point.Source:Marsh McLennan Advantage20Recommended actionsEstablish national V2X policies to guide investment and adoptionNational and local governments need to lead the development of a framework for the adoption of V2X technologies that fits the needs of its cities anddistricts.By being proactive and providing clarity on ambitions,standards,and expected timelines,government bodies can bring together key industry stakeholders,such as researchers,hardware manufacturers,EV manufacturers,and gridoperators,to break down siloes through education and partnerships.National-level responsibilities would include the development of technical standards and the identification other policy documentation to align withV2G ambitions.National authorities should alsobe driving proof-of-concept trials to show the efficacy of V2G for all stakeholders involved.A trial ledby Kaluza,a software company owned by UK energy provider Ovo,was supported by funding fromthe Office for Zero Emission Vehicles(OZEV)andthe Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy to demonstrate the benefits of V2Gfor the grid operators and customers(seeExhibit 8).Exhibit 8:Selected benefits of V2G pilot in the UK3.5 billion saved annuallyin terms of grid infrastructure reinforcement725 a year earnedby customers who merely needtokeep their cars pluggedinwhen not in use16 GW of daily flexible capacityachieved with almost 11 million EVs on the UKs roads,if half of themwere V2G enabledSource:Ofgem51Local government responsibilities would center on creating an enabling environment for V2G services in their jurisdiction and rely on authorities engaging with the right local stakeholders to discuss and then enact fit-for-purpose guidelines,pilots,and rate structures that would apply to V2X services locally.Driven by the ambition to capture any excess energy production from renewable sources during thedaytime,the Netherlands city of Utrecht is becoming a leader in promoting V2X adoption.Local authorities began by including incentives for CPOs to install bi-directional charging as part of their rollouts.While the city is trying to transition to a model of increasingly shared-ownership vehicles,V2X can still play a role in reducing strain on the grid.One recent pilot project50 offers residents in the district of Cartesius the chance to sign up for an EV-leasing service that allows them access to a car for a certain number of days in the month.The leasing service has partnered with the developer of new-build housing to create parking spaces for the vehicles,withaccompanying bi-directional charging points.When the vehicles are connected,they help with reducing peak-hour demand on the grid,and the revenue that the service makes from this connection goes partly to ensuring that the subscription fees residents pay for the vehicles are sustainable.21Focus on selecting the right V2X pilot projectsSelecting the right scope and partners for pilot projects will help demonstrate technical and economic viability,as well as building stakeholder trust.In the near term,V2X pilot projects should focuson EV fleets.The ratio of decision-makers(thatneed to be convinced)to EVs in a pilot is reducedby focusing on vehicle fleets,where the predictability of driving patterns is greater than it is for individual vehicles.The greater volume of potential connected vehicles also means better potential returns for owners,which can help overcome concerns about investment in upgrading EV meters and charge points to support V2X functionality.Helpfully,the main benefits to fleet owners of financial benefits and backup powerprovision also apply to homeowners with V2X-enabledEVs,so some lessons will carry over.In the UK,publicly funded research52 has estimated that annual fleet V2G charging benefits could range between 700-1,250 per vehicle.This may explain why,in the UK,EDF and Nissan have partnered on thecountrys first V2G program that hasnt received public funding.The program aims to convince vehicle fleet owners across the country to adopt of Nissans V2G compatible models.In May 2022,the California Public Utilities Commission approved53 funding for multiple pilot projects that will be delivered by Pacific Gas&Electric Co(PG&E).One of the pilot projects will specifically target medium and heavy-duty vehicle fleets,while another will focus on using a mix of EV types to respond to public safety power shutoffs related to wildfires in the state.Climate change-related risks pose an important follow-up question for EV charging and V2X solutions.Internet connectivity is an essential component of payment systems and real-time demand management in V2X solutions.If a climate event was to sever a wired internet connection,then the CPO must ensure that wireless connectivity is in place as a backup.While 4G solutions are fully capable of handling charging payments,there is an argument for investment in 5G services to best enable the range of the Internet-of-Things(IoT)technologies that help deliver V2X connectivity tailored to drivers needs in real-time.This benefit is multiplied when dealing with fleets of EVs,where faster speeds mean reduced latency and true real-time response to grid demand which ensures the greatest return on investment.22Concluding thoughtsThe past decade has seen more investment and innovation in electric vehicles than since the first prototype was invented 190 years ago.With so many government targets focused on scaling up adoption by 2030,this trend is likely to grow during the rest of the decade.The journey to widespread adoption of electric cars is well underway,but the speed of implementation is tied to how fast charging infrastructure can be rolled out.Improving charging speeds is essential,especially if electrification is to become more widespread in vans,trucks,buses,and construction vehicles.Truesuccess for the industry will not come solely from ensuring there is enough charging infrastructure to support broader EV adoption;instead,it must be combinedwith investment in the greening of electricity generation.23AcknowledgementsAuthorsBlair ChalmersManaging Director,Marsh McLennan AIman RedaResearch Analyst,Marsh McLennan AContributorsOur thanks go to the following individuals at Marsh McLennanMarsh:Martin Bennett,David Carlson,Carl Gurney,Kasia Lipinska,Greg Masterson,Sam TiltmanMercer:Max Messervy,Mike PonicallOliver Wyman:Michael Crestanello,Leo Li,Andreas Nienhaus,Nicholas TonkesMarsh McLennan:Ben Hoster,Swati Khurana,Richard Smith-Bingham,James Sutherland,Ralph ThannheiserDesign led by Tezel Lim,Art Director24Endnotes1 Fisher,R.(2022,August 16).Car-Charging Investment Soars,Driven by EV Growth and Government Funds.Bloomberg.2 Bieker,G.(2021).A Global Comparison Of The Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Of Combustion Engine And Electric Passenger Cars.3 Analysis by Oliver Wyman4 Trends in charging infrastructure Global EV Outlook 2022 Analysis.(2022).IEA.5 Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Report.(2022,March).Pluginamerica.org.6 Electric Car Buyers Worldwide Purchase to Protect the Planet.(2022,August 3).7 Cara.(2022,June 22).Electric cars:Half of all chargers in EU concentrated in just two countries.ACEA European Automobile Manufacturers Association.8 Global EV Outlook 2022 Data product.(2022,May).IEA.9 Charging your car:Easy,smart and everywhere,The National Charging Infrastructure Agenda:Gearing up for electric driving.The National Charging Infrastructure Agenda.(2020).10 Policy Update:Chinas New Energy Vehicle Industrial Development Plan for 2021 to 2035.(2021)International Council on Clean Transportation.11 Joint Office vision:A future where everyone can ride and drive electric.(2022).Joint Office of Energy and Transportation.Retrieved November 21,2022.12 Regulations:Electric vehicle smart charge points.(2022).GOV.UK.Retrieved November 21,2022.13 Medlemsfordel:Ladeklubben.(2022).Norsk Elbilforening.Retrieved November 21,2022.14 Charging without any surprises Customer journey.The Netherlands Knowledge Platform for Charging Infrastructure.(n.d.).Retrieved November 21,2022.15 Cybersecurity.(n.d.).ElaadNL.Retrieved November 21,2022.16 Hoult,P.(2022,May 6).The role of local government and the UK EV Infrastructure Strategy.Local Government Lawyer.Retrieved November 21,2022.17 Electric Vehicle Strategy.(2021).NSW Climate and Energy Action.18 Bauer,G.,Hsu,C.-W.,Nicholas,M.,&Lutsey,N.(2021).Charging Up America:Assessing The Growing Need For US Charging Infrastructure Through 2030.International Council on Clean Transport.19 Hecht,C.,Dirk,U.,Sauer,Das,S.,&Bussar,C.(2020).Representative empirical,real-world charging station usage characteristics and data in Germany.Retrieved November 21,2022.20 Sonar,P.T.R.(2022,April 15).Austrian government announces funding campaign for EV charging infrastructure|Power Technology Research.Retrieved November 21,2022.21 Low Emission Transport Fund.(n.d.).EECA.Retrieved November 21,2022.22 Leading the Charge:How USDA Rural Development Supports Electric Vehicle Infrastructure.(n.d.).Retrieved November 21,2022.23 CIB Launches$500 Million Charging and Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure Initiative|Canada Infrastructure Bank an impact investor accelerating new infrastructure by engaging private and institutional investors and project developers.Cib-Bic.ca.Retrieved November 21,2022.24 Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles(EV)the revised consolidation Guidelines&Standards-reg,No.12/2/2018-EV(Comp No.244347)(2022).25 Government vision for the rapid chargepoint network in England.GOV.UK.(2022,May 14).26 The future of E-charging infrastructure:France.(2020,May 6).WFW.27 Tutt,E.,Carr,E.,James,J.,Winebrake,&Samuel,G.(2021).Expertise for a Shared Future Workforce Projections to Support Battery Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Installation.28 Newsroom Wallbox Acquires EV Charging Installation Services Company,COIL.(2022).W.Retrieved November 21,2022.29 Korosec,K.(2021,July 20).ChargePoint to buy European charging software startup for$295M.TechCrunch.30 PYMNTS.(2021,August 11).ChargePoint Buys Public Transit Fleet Management Co For$88M.31 Runyon,J.(2021,June 28).Ford acquires EV charging management startup Electriphi.Smart Energy International.32 Connected Kerb secures up to 110 million from Aviva Investors to deliver“game-changing”on-street EV charging revolution.(2022,September 26).Retrieved November 21,2022.33 EdgeConneX Continues Legacy of Innovation;Launches Voltera,Which Plans to Provide Charging Facilities for Companies Operating Electric Vehicles.(2022,August 9).EdgeConneX.Retrieved November 21,2022.34 IONITY EU.(2020).Ionity.eu.35 Flaherty,N.(2022,August 19).EV charger maker Wallbox buys its PCB supplier.EENewsEurope.2536 Complying with the Electric Vehicles(Smart Charge Points)Regulations 2021:Guidance for sellers of electric vehicle charge points in Great Britain Guidance.(2022).37 Agile Streets launches in Shropshire and Hackney.(2021,December 20).Retrieved November 21,2022.38 CPUC Decision Makes California First State in the Nation To Allow Submetering of Electric Vehicles.(2022,August 4).www.cpuc.ca.gov.Retrieved November 21,2022.39 Burger,J.,Hildermeier,J.,Jahn,A.,&Rosenow,J.(2022,April 26).The time is now:Smart charging of electric vehicles.Retrieved November 21,2022.40 Somers,W.,Khan,W.,Bont,K.de,&Zeiler,W.(2022).Individual EV load profiling and smart charging to flatten total electrical demand.CLIMA 2022 Conference.41 Szinai,J.K.,Sheppard,C.J.R.,Abhyankar,N.,&Gopal,A.R.(2020).Reduced grid operating costs and renewable energy curtailment with electric vehicle charge management.Energy Policy,136,111051.42 Verkehrswende,A.,Maier,U.,Energiewende,A.,Peter,F.,&Hildermeier,J.(2019).Distribution grid planning for a successful energy transition-focus on electromobility Conclusions of a study commissioned by Agora Verkehrswende,Agora Energiewende and Regulatory Assistance Project(RAP).43 Zhang,J.,Jorgenson,J.,Markel,T.,&Walkowicz,K.(2019).Value to the Grid From Managed Charging Based on Californias High Renewables Study.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,34(2),831-840.44 Szinai,J.K.,Sheppard,C.J.R.,Abhyankar,N.,&Gopal,A.R.(2020).Reduced grid operating costs and renewable energy curtailment with electric vehicle charge management.Energy Policy,136,111051.45 Ramey,J.(2021,September 23).This EV Charger Doesnt Need a New Grid Connection or Digging to Install.Autoweek.46 L-Charge|Car charging companies|EV electric vehicle charging.L-Charge.Retrieved November 21,2022.47 StackPath.(2021,June 23).Retrieved November 21,2022.48 Paired Power Unveils New Solar Canopy for Fast,Modular EV Charging Without the Delay of Grid Interconnection.(2022,September 13).W.49 Charging Rivian.R.50 Doll,S.(2022,April 22).Hyundai and We Drive Solar deploy IONIQ 5s with V2G tech in the Netherlands to create the“worlds first bi-directional city”.Electrek.51 Case study(UK):Electric vehicle-to-grid(V2G)charging.(2021,July 6).Ofgem.52 Nissan,E.ON Drive and Imperial College highlight the carbon saving and economic benefits of Vehicle-to-Grid technology.(2021,January 7).Official Great Britain Newsroom.53 California approves$11.7M vehicle-to-grid pilots in PG&E footprint.(2022,April 1).Utility Dive.Retrieved November 21,2022.54 Electric vehicles from life cycle and circular economy perspectives TERM 2018:Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism(TERM)report.(2018.).55 Electric vehicles from life cycle and circular economy perspectives TERM 2018:Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism(TERM)report.(2018.).Marsh McLennan(NYSE:MMC)is the worlds leading professional services firm in the areas of risk,strategy and people.The Companys 78,000 colleagues advise clients in 130 countries.With annual revenue over$18 billion,Marsh McLennan helps clients navigate an increasingly dynamic and complex environment through four market-leading businesses.Marsh provides data-driven risk advisory services and insurance solutions to commercial and consumer clients.Guy Carpenter develops advanced risk,reinsurance and capital strategies that help clients grow profitably and pursue emerging opportunities.Mercer delivers advice and technology-driven solutions that help organizations redefine the world of work,reshape retirement and investment outcomes,and unlock health and well being for a changing workforce.Oliver Wyman serves as a critical strategic,economic and brand advisor to private sector and governmental clients.For more information,visit ,follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter or subscribe to BRINK.Copyright 2022 Marsh&McLennan Companies Ltd,Inc.All rights reserved.This report may not be sold,reproduced or redistributed,in whole or in part,without the prior written permission of Marsh&McLennan Companies,Inc.This report and any recommendations,analysis or advice provided herein(i)are based on our experience as insurance and reinsurance brokers or as consultants,as applicable,(ii)are not intended to be taken as advice or recommendations regarding any individual situation,(iii)should not be relied upon as investment,tax,accounting,actuarial,regulatory or legal advice regarding any individual situation or as a substitute for consultation with professional consultants or accountants or with professional tax,legal,actuarial or financial advisors,and(iv)do not provide an opinion regarding the fairness of any transaction to any party.The opinions expressed herein are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the date hereof.We are not responsible for the consequences of any unauthorized use of this report.Its content may not be modified or incorporated into or used in other material,or sold or otherwise provided,in whole or in part,to any other person or entity,without our written permission.No obligation is assumed to revise this report to reflect changes,events or conditions,which occur subsequent to the date hereof.Information furnished by others,as well as public information and industry and statistical data,upon which all or portions of this report may be based,are believed to be reliable but have not been verified.Any modeling,analytics or projections are subject to inherent uncertainty,and any opinions,recommendations,analysis or advice provided herein could be materially affected if any underlying assumptions,conditions,information,or factors are inaccurate or incomplete or should change.We have used what we believe are reliable,up-to-date and comprehensive information and analysis,but all information is provided without warranty of any kind,express or implied,and we disclaim any responsibility for such information or analysis or to update the information or analysis in this report.We accept no liability for any loss arising from any action taken or refrained from,or any decision made,as a result of or reliance upon anything contained in this report or any reports or sources of information referred to herein,or for actual results or future events or any damages of any kind,including without limitation direct,indirect,consequential,exemplary,special or other damages,even if advised of the possibility of such damages.This report is not an offer to buy or sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities.No responsibility is taken for changes in market conditions or laws or regulations which occur subsequent to the date hereof.Marsh McLennan
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A G I L I T Y E M E R G I N G M A R K E T S L O G I S T I C S2023Supply chains battle with higher costs,Covid lows,the Ukraine war and major location shiftsProduction moves out of ChinaSaudi Arabia to spend$24.7bn on tech by 20252023 recession:What are the odds?2ContentsContentsOverall Index 13China 13India 14United Arab Emirates 15Malaysia 16Indonesia 17Saudi Arabia 18Qatar 20Thailand 21Mexico 22Vietnam 24Domestic Logistics Opportunities 25China top again but storm clouds gather 25Make in India policy brings rewards and costs 25Brazil falls but Egypt soars 26Egypt prioritises port investment 26International Logistics Opportunities 28Chinas zero Covid policy still causing supply chains chaos 28Asian countries to benefit from China plus 29Highest climbers 29Business Fundamentals 30Rule of law essential 30Smuggling and counterfeiting risks 31Digital Readiness 33Adopting Industry 4.0 33Digital finance and broadband penetration key to e-commerce adoption 34Education and skills lay foundations 35The Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2023 Survey 36152433343Contents42.3%of respondents believe that air freight rates will normalise in 2023,although at higher levels than pre-Covid;compared to 46.8%who think that sea freight rates will normalise in 2023,but at higher levels than pre-Covid.The most important driver of demand is the US economy.Consumer confidence in the US seems weak at present resulting in less vigorous retail spending.Read more on p.41Supply chains increasingly bypassing ChinaFrom 2023 onward,Southeast Asia,India,Europe and North America will be more attractive production and sourcing destinations than China,according to survey findings.Southeast Asia followed by India will be the most attractive re-location destinations,with 13.6%and 13.4%of respondents respectively stating their companies will move production or sourcing activities to these destinations.Read more on p.53Key FindingsFrom freight rates to start-up ecosystems,our key findings section offers a brief look at some of the facts and data to emerge from our research.Kenya features one of the most mature start-up ecosystemsKenya has advanced its structural reform agenda focused on improving governance and has reinforced oversight of state-owned enterprises.The countrys progress towards creating a stronger business environment in the last several years has also been evident.Kenya belongs to the big four African countries that account for about a third of the continents start-up incubators and accelerators,according to the WEF.GDP growth in Kenya is forecasted to be amongst the strongest in the region in 2023 according to the IMF.The peaceful conclusion of the 2022 presidential vote is a good signal for Kenyas institutional strengthening and political stability.Read more on p.394Contents66.4%of respondents says a global recession is certain or likely in 2023.This number increased by 6 percentage points in December compared to October.The forecast comes amidst sharp growth slowdowns across the largest economies.Read more on p.37Reconfiguration challenging for electronics and machineryMoving production out of China is easier for some industries than others.Supply chains for products like furniture,apparel and household goods will be relatively easy to diversify because the inputs are relatively easy to obtain.The process of supply chain reconfiguration will be more challenging for industries such as electronics and machinery,as they require components which are more difficult to source.More challenging,but not impossible as many electronics companies have already demonstrated.Read more on p.54Green economy provides Thailand with competitive advantageThailand has become a beneficiary of the China plus risk mitigation sourcing strategies being increasingly employed by global manufacturers.Whilst other Southeast Asian countries,such as Vietnam,may have lower labour costs,Thailand is more technologically advanced,especially in the green economy including the manufacture of electric vehicles(EVs).This has provided the country with a significant competitive advantage in the region.Read more on p.215Contents2/3 of respondents agree or strongly agree that the African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA)will generate new employment opportunities across the continent.Even though the African Continental Free Trade Agreement has in theory been operational since the start of 2021.Read more on p.57The Ukraine Russia War triggers costsThe war is having broad implications for global businesses it has triggered an increase in business costs among 30%of the surveyed companies,whilst 29%saw an increase in logistics costs.Indeed,the war only amplified the economic impact of the pandemic and triggered an increase in the cost of energy,shipping and commodities as well as supply chain disruptions,causing businesses around the world to feel the ripples closer to home.The war in Ukraine was a reminder for businesses that geopolitical risks should be factored in supply chain risk management.Geopolitical risks are always present,but the range of issues they present is creating extremely significant challenges for businesses to grapple with.Read more on p.45Digital forwarders have developed a sound business modelSurvey findings show that digital forwarders have been successful at eroding the competitive advantages of forwarders across several areas.The areas in which digital forwarders perform particularly well include tracking and visibility,Invoicing and Payment,and Speed of service.Respondents suggest that digital forwarders are yet to consistently improve their offering when compared to traditional forwarders in some areas.Looking ahead to 2027,the volumes shipped and booked through digital forwarders will further increase from the current average of 47.7%to almost 60.1%.The adoption rate is likely to increase over time as the technology matures and the digital forwarders gain scale.Read more on p.606Contents18%Climate-change events are already affecting around 1 in 5 organizations according to survey respondents.18%of the respondents are already feeling the impact of this type of disruption and state that climate change events are affecting their business.Read more on p.63The wave of multinationals announcing ambitious net zero targets made headlines in 2021Large corporations around the world pledged to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to zero,usually by the distant 2050.These announcements gave the impression that the corporate world is moving fast to tackle climate change.But the reality is more nuanced.According to our survey findings,more than 50%of respondents have committed to a net zero target,but around a third of respondents havent set a net zero target deadline.Read more on p.62Saudi Arabia has the potential to become a digital and innovation-based economyInnovation and technological development is the most important driver of economic diversification in the Gulf countries according to survey respondents.Saudi Arabia will spend$24.7bn on technology by 2025.This is reportedly the highest government spending on technology in the world.The country is investing$6.4bn in future technologies and start-ups.By 2025 the digital economy is expected to contribute over 19%GDP of Saudi Arabia.Read more on p.507Contents17%Asia Pacific remains the most attractive global manufacturing hub,with 23.1%of respondents producing their products in the region.But a certain degree of relocation of international supply chains appears to be under way and global supply chains are on the move.Survey findings show that 17%of the respondents that have already moved production/sourcing activities have chosen China as their alternative destination.Read more p.52Wage in Mexico$3.90 per hour compared to$5.58 in ChinaThe Mexican economy will significantly benefit from the deteriorating relationship between US and China.However,this will only occur if the Mexican government is able to build a more attractive business case for foreign investment.According to IHS Markit,the average manufacturing industry wage in 2022 in Mexico is$3.90 per hour,compared with$5.58 in China.The security situation in Mexico is one of the biggest headwinds to economic growth.Read more on p.22Technology adoption&e-commerce growthTechnology adoption,including internet and mobile phone usage is the most important digital readiness factor when deciding whether to invest in an emerging market,according to survey findings.Speed and reliability of internet connectivity as well as financial and banking ecosystem to support e-commerce sales are the second and third most important digital readiness factors.Digitalisation has become one of the most significant growth engines for many emerging economies.For instance,digital readiness and connectivity played a crucial role in overcoming the difficulties of conventional trade during the pandemic and facilitating recovery in Southeast Asia.Read more on p.498Contents13.5%The proportion of businesses that will pass on higher energy prices to customers is not insignificant:13.5%of the respondents stated that their companies will increase their prices by 6-10%,further contributing to inflationary pressures.Read more on p.44West establishes factory network in light of China Taiwan tensionsThere is an impending crisis related to Chinas claims on Taiwan.The escalating tensions between Taiwans ally,the USA,and China which can,and already is,having an impact of trade flows.Given the reliance of the global semiconductor industry on Taiwanese manufacturers,especially in terms of the most advanced technologies,the West has taken steps to try to establish its own factories,whilst simultaneously preventing China from gaining access to technology which could be used for military purposes.Read more on p.13The impact of multi-nationals on retailers in IndiaWhen Prime Minister Modi came to power many in the global community hoped that he would reduce barriers to international trade.However his policy response has been to raise duties further to encourage global suppliers to establish Indian operations.There are those which fear the impact which the entry of multinational corporations into the Indian market would have on small businesses,in particular retailers.The risk is,as the world approaches a period of sustained economic downturn,that a neo-protectionist regime will isolate India further from globalized supply chains rather than integrate within them.Read more on p.149ContentsIntroduction from Tarek Sultan,Vice Chairman,AgilityThis is the 14th edition of our annual Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index.If all you did was flip through the overall rankings,you would see little year-to-year change at the top,and you might conclude it had been a period of relative stability for the 50 countries examined in this report.It was not.2022 was a year of unprecedented volatility in the logistics industry and in the affairs of the emerging markets countries in our Index.At the outset of the year,shipping rates were at record highs.By years end,they had plummeted and the industry moved into 2023 with a glut of capacity and ocean containers.China,No.1 in this Index every year since it was launched,was struggling to cope with shrinking output,falling export demand and,after ending its zero-Covid policies,a huge surge in infections.Spiking energy prices sparked global inflation that sapped recovery efforts in all but a few energy-exporting economies.Meanwhile,Russia and Ukraine were battered by the effects of war and,in Russias case,economic sanctions and brain drain.To see evidence of all this volatility,take a look at the rankings for International Logistics,Domestic Logistics,Business Fundamentals,and Digital Readiness.The countries making significant moves up or down in relative competitiveness were almost too numerous to name:India,Ghana,Argentina,Iran,Mexico,Pakistan,Lebanon,Colombia,Jordan,Sri Lanka,Bahrain,Cambodia,South Africa,Bangladesh,Tanzania,Turkey,Ethiopia,Bolivia and Paraguay,among others.What lies ahead in 2023?There are plenty of clues in the Index survey of nearly 800 logistics industry executives.A large majority see the prospect of global recession as certain or likely in 2023.More than 90%have been hit by higher logistics costs.More than 80%blame the Russia-Ukraine war for at least some of their increased costs and supply chain disruption.Efforts by companies to strengthen resiliency by diversifying production and sourcing appear to be gathering steam.Nearly 75%of respondents said their companies have reduced supply chain risk by sourcing from more locations or by moving production to their home markets,nearby countries,or countries that are political allies(“friend-shoring”).Another 14.5%took other steps to reduce supply chain risk.The country most directly affected by sourcing diversification is China,but the proportion of respondents with plans to continue expansion in China is roughly equal to those planning to move out or slash investment there.The biggest factors for those leaving:Chinas strict anti-Covid policies and overall difficulty of doing business.In spite of the turmoil and uncertainty confronting emerging markets and the industry,most industry leaders are looking through a long lens.Fifty-four percent of respondents say they will be more aggressive with emerging markets investments or leave existing expansion plans in place.Meanwhile,most foresee strong growth in the use of digital freight forwarding,especially if error management can be improved.Few believe that e-commerce growth has reached a plateau.Most see expanded opportunity for their companies and for small business with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCTA).Signals in the area of sustainability and climate change are heartening,too.Only a small minority of respondents about 20%are resisting or ignoring the imperative to set net-zero targets and commitments.Sixty-seven percent say their businesses are planning for the effects of climate change or already feeling its impact.For shippers,carriers,distributors,policymakers,marketers and others focused on the supply chain,the annual Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index has been a useful guide to the worlds emerging markets and an accurate indicator of where the global economy and value chains are headed.Im confident you will find that to be the case again this year.10ContentsIntroduction from John Manners-Bell,CEO,Transport IntelligenceIt is not possible to overemphasise the challenges which many Emerging Markets have faced in the past year.A tightening post-pandemic fiscal environment in the West has resulted in a downturn in investment as well as constrained global export markets.Russias invasion of Ukraine has led to sky-high energy bills and food shortages,especially across Africa.China,meanwhile,has suffered its own problems as the economy has struggled with its governments zero tolerance approach to Covid.This has created production bottlenecks,disruption to logistics systems and distorted supply chains right around the world.Whilst many of these problems will be transient,it would be well to avoid complacency.The previous global crisis in 2008 left many politicians in Emerging Markets feeling badly let down by Western governments and corporations,their economic and societal predicament trumped by domestic pressures.As a result,many turned to China,which was,of course,eager to fill the void left by the Wests retreat.The ramification of this failure in Western policy is still being felt keenly to this day.Chinas soft power now reaches deep into countries in the emerging world,not least into Africa and even the USAs backyard,Latin America.Combined with tensions over Taiwan and the calls for re-shoring of production to North America and Europe,there is a real risk that supply chains will become fragmented or balkanised,as it has been termed.Political intervention and growing protectionism would not only bring about diseconomies of scale and lead to higher inflation but would also deny access to essential markets,exacerbating an already challenging environment.It is not all bad news,however,as these same political tensions have created opportunities for Emerging Markets resulting from China plus sourcing strategies as manufacturers look to mitigate risks,avoid US tariffs and comply with new legislation,especially in the electronics sector.What is clear is that the supply chain environment is set to become increasingly complex,with the prospect of globalized open markets now looking remote.If policy makers are not careful,Emerging Markets could be denied previously promised benefits as they find themselves caught in a power play between China and the West.Even well-meaning carbon reduction legislation such as the EUs Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism risks further disaffection as Emerging Markets are made to shoulder the cost of climate change.Geo-political tensions have combined with financial uncertainty to create an ever more challenging business and investment environment.The role the Agility Emerging Market Logistics Index plays in providing insight into these complexities is more critical than ever.11ContentsTo assess and understand these trends and their effects on 50 of the worlds most promising emerging logistics markets,the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2023 examines four key areas for logistics market development:Domestic Logistics Opportunities International Logistics Opportunities Business Fundamentals Digital Readiness It presents a data-driven analysis of 50 of the worlds most promising emerging logistics markets,reflecting the complexity,connectedness and opportunities each market provides.As data visibility increases,the Ti Data Team is able to improve the accuracy of the models for each Index which,along with unprecedented volatility in the industry,instability in the global economy and effect of digital acceleration post Covid-19 has led to more movement in some areas of the Index than we are used to seeing.Domestic Logistics Opportunities measures the performance of each emerging market and its potential to sustain and develop domestic demand that requires competitive logistics markets:Domestic logistics markets size&growth Economy size&growth Population size&growth Income equality Urbanisation Development of business clusters International Logistics Opportunities measures internal and external demand for trade intensive logistics services and the capacity of individual emerging markets to facilitate cross-border logistics operations:International logistics markets size&growth Logistics intensive trade size&growth Infrastructure quality and connectedness Border procedures time&cost Business Fundamentals measures the openness,robustness,fairness and strength of each emerging markets business environment,rule of law and market independence:Regulatory environment Credit rating Contract enforcement&anti-corruption frameworks Inflation&price stability Cost of crime&violence Market accessibility&domestic stability Digital Readiness measures the potential and progress of an emerging market in becoming a digitally-led,skills rich,innovation-oriented and sustainable economy for the future:Emissions intensity Renewable energy mix Digital business models&online commerce Entrepreneurial risk Digital skills&human capital Availability of enterprise financing Each year,the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index utilises a unique set of variables that measure current,short-and medium-term performance across structural and cyclical factors in each countrys logistics markets and key vertical sectors.As a result,the Index provides a snapshot of each countrys current performance and future potential as a globally significant logistics market and investment destination.To determine the ranking of the 50 leading global emerging logistics markets,current and forecast data from world-leading institutions including Transport Intelligence(Ti),the World Bank,the International Monetary Fund(IMF),the World Economic Forum(WEF)and others are used.By combining current and forecast data,this 2023 edition of the Index continues to assess each markets recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,as well as its ability to survive or thrive in a period of unprecedented volatility.With the addition of the Digital Readiness ranking introduced in 2022,and the subsequent enhancements of this model through more data visibility,the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2023 also provides a unique perspective on the suitability and preparedness of each emerging market to participate in the still challenging,post-pandemic global economy.It is within this sub-Index that we have seen the most change,often due to the significant adoption of e-commerce resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.In addition,by ranking each emerging market against the 49 others,the Index highlights strong performers and demonstrates where markets have developed enduring advantages.It also reveals those markets which have seen performance and potential erode.Key Measures12ContentsThe Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2022 Overall RankingRankRank ChangeCountryOverall ScoreLast Years ScoreDomestic OpportunitiesInternational OpportunitiesBusiness FundamentalsDigital Readiness10China8.319.758.479.757.116.6320India7.437.238.047.455.947.6130UAE6.595.735.605.899.107.3740Malaysia6.165.925.295.887.856.7250Indonesia6.085.516.345.895.776.2160Saudi Arabia6.075.955.385.747.866.3070Qatar6.024.895.914.967.926.3880Thailand5.676.015.115.985.776.0490Mexico5.556.405.376.324.935.11101Vietnam5.525.875.026.035.615.4311-1Turkey5.496.015.145.705.805.50122Oman5.464.894.954.887.245.8113-1Chile5.435.174.835.187.015.55141Bahrain5.314.684.994.707.155.34152Kuwait5.254.575.074.646.235.76163Jordan5.195.674.884.756.725.1417-4Russia5.185.255.015.415.135.14180Philippines5.185.435.025.284.315.9919-3Brazil5.174.735.425.424.135.19200Morocco5.084.654.645.096.454.69210Egypt5.065.005.154.725.625.00220Kazakhstan4.994.414.664.666.195.10230Uruguay4.984.704.784.456.145.22240South Africa4.944.954.815.004.995.01253Kenya4.864.614.604.654.975.56261Pakistan4.814.585.164.634.135.0627-1Peru4.785.104.725.124.484.5828-3Colombia4.755.024.675.084.554.53293Ghana4.724.234.614.445.005.14303Sri Lanka4.664.724.494.734.325.12310Argentina4.664.614.874.634.244.68324Tunisia4.604.604.614.485.064.39332Lebanon4.584.424.814.613.794.80340Nigeria4.554.485.154.393.624.61354Bangladesh4.534.385.024.483.534.6336-6Iran4.504.474.574.114.385.15375Tanzania4.474.354.624.144.704.58382Cambodia4.464.284.454.484.164.7339-1Ecuador4.464.464.504.654.494.03401Paraguay4.464.224.454.384.304.7241-4Algeria4.454.634.884.244.613.9142-13Ukraine4.404.974.344.383.954.91430Uganda4.294.394.414.383.914.24440Bolivia4.144.464.444.463.743.45450Ethiopia4.074.364.424.403.213.64460Mozambique3.764.404.254.392.173.22471Venezuela3.754.264.483.961.563.9948-1Angola3.713.484.374.301.903.11490Myanmar3.684.254.444.272.042.79500Libya3.352.594.483.811.961.8413ContentsWhilst China has once more retained its position at the top of the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index,the past year has been one characterized by political,economic and social upheaval,a new and worrying state of affairs for a government which prides itself on continuity and advancement.At the root of its problems is the effect of the Covid pandemic and the zero tolerance policy it has adopted to prevent the spread of the disease throughout the population.This has had severe consequences for the economy which is forecast to grow only weakly(by Chinas standards)in 2022.Its prospects for 2023 will be influenced by whether the government loosens its regulations.If it does(and there are positive signs of this)then considerable pent up demand could be released,driving forward once again the Chinese and global economy.There is also the risk,however,that a return to normality will precipitate the spread of the disease overwhelming healthcare systems and throwing the governments policy response into confusion.Geo-political tensionsDomestic concerns are only part of the countrys problems.Whilst the fall out from the governments Covid response may be transient,albeit costly to domestic and worldwide supply chains,there are more strategic global challenges ahead.At the top of these is the impending crisis related to Chinas claims on Taiwan.There is already a pathway of escalating tension between Taiwans ally,the USA,and China which can,and already is,having an impact on trade flows.The breakdown of relations started with the tariffs imposed on China by President Trump and continued under President Biden.Specifically regarding Taiwan,the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives,Nancy Pelosi,to Taiwan in August 2022 prompted Chinas military to undertake live firing exercises in the waters around the island,disrupting air and shipping lanes.This was a clear signal to the international community that a blockade of Taiwan could be used as a diplomatic and economic lever.Given the reliance of the global semiconductor industry on Taiwanese manufacturers,especially in terms of the most advanced technologies,the West has taken steps to try to establish its own factories,whilst simultaneously preventing China from gaining access to technology which could be used for military purposes.Capturing supply chain valueA further pillar of Chinese government policy has been the capture of supply chain value by increasing the domestically-sourced proportion of intermediate goods.In the Factory Asia model,intermediates produced across the region have typically been transported to China for final assembly.This means that Chinese manufacturers lose out on much of the value adding process,the final assembly being a low cost and commoditized undertaking dependent on cheap labour.The government has recognized that for its industry to ascend the value chain it has to invest in the know how and facilities which would obviate the need to import components from competitors throughout the region a calculated,strategic and successful move.A so-called In China,for China production strategy has also been developed.Encouraged by the countrys political leaders,consumers are purchasing Chinese-made rather than foreign goods in increasing volumes,a significant shift in behaviour from only a few years ago.This trend is particularly evident in the younger demographic which takes pride in buying domestically produced goods.These trends will result in China both becoming more self-sufficient in intermediate goods as well as finished products.Supply chain de-couplingWhether zero-tolerance Covid policy,the establishment of dual technology supply chains,Made In China value capture or the fall out from its treatment of the Uighur community,China is slowly becoming de-coupled from global supply chains.This will be a very long process given the importance of the market to the rest of the world but it is a trend which cannot be ignored.This will create massive tension between the worlds largest military and economic powers but it will also bring opportunities for smaller countries in the region so-called China plus sourcing locations.These include many of the countries in the Indexs Top Ten which will expect to close the gap on China in the coming years.Overall IndexChina14ContentsAt number two in the ranking,India has made significant progress in the last decade to modernize its logistics and supply chain industry and,by doing so,deliver strong economic growth.This has included introducing a Goods&Services Tax(GST)as well as an electronic waybill for transportation providers crossing state borders which has reduced corruption and transit times.At the same time,the government has looked at ways of making logistics more efficient by addressing bottlenecks,introducing technology and streamlining major transport infrastructure projects,often plagued by delays and mismanagement.In 2022 the government introduced a National Logistics Policy which has been developed to build on this progress to date.This will include the creation of a unified digital platform that will provide end-to-end visibility for importers and exporters as well as the creation of a multi-modal network that will leverage an under-utilized rail system.However,there is much to do if India is to attract more manufacturing from China although the country has made a good start(see feature on Apples decision to move some production to India on page 29).In terms of logistics,for example,the average turnaround time at an Indian port is 20-40 hours higher than the global average and considerable investment is required in Indias port,airport,road and rail infrastructure.While most developed countries have a single digit logistics cost to GDP ratio,the Indian costs have been in the 14 to 18%range for years.Raising barriers to capture supply chain valueHistorically,protectionist policies have meant that India has excluded itself from many Global Value Chains,thereby losing the economic benefits which these can bring.When Prime Minister Modi came to power many in the global community hoped that he would reduce barriers to international trade,opening up the market to foreign competition.However,in fact his policy response has been to raise duties further(up to 25%)on many imported intermediate products in order to encourage global suppliers to establish Indian operations and hence increase domestic value add.The so-called Phased Manufacturing Programme(PMP)started raising duties on specific components used in mobile phones in 2016 and rapidly expanded this list in subsequent years.The ambition of the PMP was to ensure that up to 50%of the value of a mobile phone assembled in India was generated by Indian-based suppliers(rather than imports),thereby establishing an eco-system for foreign investment and(although it may sound counter-intuitive)allow Indian high tech companies to better participate in Global Value Chains.This forms part of a broader Make in India policy discussed in more detail later in this document.The stance of the Indian government towards trade policy is complicated by internal politics.There are those which fear the impact which the entry of multinational corporations into the Indian market would have on small businesses,in particular retailers.Regulations have consequently constrained the ambitions of international retailers such as Walmart and e-commerce players such as Amazon.There are also those who believe that China provides the greater threat,dumping cheap,subsidized exports on the Indian market to destabilize the economy and support its political goals of expansionism.It is worth noting that Prime Minister Modi has ensured that India is one of the few countries in the Asian region to oppose Chinas Belt&Road Initiative,unlike its major rival and neighbour,Pakistan.Either way,foreign companies are finding it increasingly difficult to navigate the regulatory framework in India.The risk is,as the world approaches a period of sustained economic downturn,that a neo-protectionist regime will isolate India further from globalized supply chains rather than integrate within them.This could counteract the impressive progress which India has made under Modis leadership towards becoming an advanced,Industry 4.0 enabled economy.India 15ContentsWhilst the investments made by the UAE over the last few decades in its transport and logistics infrastructure have propelled the country to the top echelons of the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index,there is no sign of any complacency,despite signs of global recession and deglobalization.Digitalization,the foundation of progressWhilst the development of ports,airports,road and rail networks are on-going,the government is also prioritizing its digital capabilities.It sees the growth of the e-commerce market as a major opportunity,facilitated by its already developed internet capabilities and advanced digital payment systems.Digitalization is regarded as being key to address many of the inefficiencies which exist in the UAEs international logistics and supply chain sector.A significant proportion of air and sea freight bookings are still undertaken by phone or fax;containers are often lost;20%of boxes do not turn up for their booked departure time;terminals are often congested;ships depart later due to problems with Customs or paperwork and there is poor visibility of ship arrival times.Many of these issues were laid bare by the Covid pandemic and this has created an imperative for investment in new Port Community Systems(PCS).However,there are also projects to develop disruptive technologies such as the Internet of Things,autonomous trucks and ships,artificial intelligence as well as cybersecurity tools,all with the aim of creating high levels of supply chain visibility and resilience.Embracing trade liberalizationWhilst many countries have taken the political decision to turn their back on globalization,the UAE has doubled down on its long standing commitment to free international trade.This is hardly surprising given that its economy has benefited so much from the governments decision to develop the country as a major international hub serving Europe,the Middle East,India and parts of Africa.To this end the UAE has signed several significant trade deals with major emerging markets across the region and elsewhere.Amongst these include a wide-reaching deal with India,the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(CEPA),which is hoped will increase trade from$60 billion to$100 billion over the next five years.The agreement will remove 10,000 tariff lines from goods and commodities including oil&gas,textiles,agriculture and jewellery.In addition,a number of initiatives to facilitate cross-border trade between the two markets will be adopted;data will be shared with the goal of adopting Authorised Economic Operator(AEO)mutual recognition;there will be greater access to each others pharmaceutical markets;enhanced transparency on government procurement and a shared commitment to digital trade.The agreement will also allow the UAEs partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC)to join if their own negotiations with India which commenced in 2022 are delayed.Additionally the UAE has made,or is in the process of making deals with Turkey,Israel,Indonesia and even Colombia,demonstrating the political priority which is being given to ensuring the UAEs position in world trade.United Arab Emirates16ContentsMalaysia has retained its fourth place ranking in this years Index.The country has not been immune to the fall out from the global pandemic and many manufacturers were impacted by the whiplash effect of supply and demand sourcing decisions by their overseas customers.This has resulted in a policy decision by the Malaysian government to place resilience at the heart of its next five year supply chain plan.This involves a focus on what it calls local sourcing facilitation,that is,encouraging and facilitating major manufacturers in the country to use domestic suppliers,often SMEs,rather than those located in other countries.The government believes that buy local policy will reduce supply chain disruptions such as export bans,border closures or,indeed,the impact of Chinas zero tolerance approach to Covid which has been so damaging to GVCs across Asia.This will not only increase resilience,but the government believes that it will also create spillover benefits cascading down to local businesses in the country.At the same time as this,investment in transport and digital infrastructure is on-going from a wide-range of sources including government,non-governmental and commercial financial institutions and foreign businesses.The Port of Tanjung Pelepas(PTP)provides a good example of this with the announcement in 2022 that it was expanding its capacity by a million twenty-foot equivalent units(TEUs)through a joint investment by its owners,Malaysias MMC group and the Netherlands APM Terminals.A significant proportion of Malaysias foreign investment has also come from Chinas Belt&Road Initiative(BRI).This has attracted considerable controversy with fears that Malaysia would fall into a debt-trap leaving it beholden to China.Indeed these fears resulted in a change of government.Nevertheless,since the programmes creation,national and local governments in Malaysia have looked to the BRI for investment in critical infrastructure including ports,rail lines and industrial parks.As is the case with many of the top ranking countries in the Index,Malaysia has developed an Industry 4.0 policy to focus its future supply chain strategy.This involves using digital technologies to increase productivity(by 30%by 2030)whilst improving what it calls its ecological integrity and the quality of life of its people.This will involve:Equipping the workforce with Industry 4.0 skill sets Developing enhanced digitalized logistics systems to promote interoperability Increasing the robustness of the regulatory framework to support adoption of transportation and logistics-related technologies Improving mobility through development and adoption of centralized and open transport-related database,including traffic management Support R&D for Industry 4.0 technologies to develop low carbon mobility solutions Enhance efficiency in cyber security management to mitigate cyber risksMalaysia 17ContentsWhilst offering impressive opportunities,Indonesia has many supply chain and logistics challenges,a fact illustrated by its high proportion of logistics costs to GDP.Despite its strong position in the top ten of the rankings,many in the country believe that progress is not being made as quickly as might be expected,especially given the governments aim to reduce the logistics cost ratio to 17%from 24%by 2024.In order to provide the basis for an economy-wide transformation,the Indonesian government has adopted a Making Indonesia 4.0 programme.This will focus innovation and development on five key sectors comprising electronics,chemicals,automotive,food and beverage and textiles,all underpinned by enhanced logistics and supply chain processes.However,whilst the intention may be very sound,considerable progress will need to be made before companies in the market will have Industry 4.0 capabilities.One way to facilitate this would be to remove many of the regulations relating to foreign investment.The easier entry of international companies into Indonesia would allow local businesses to benefit from the transfer of advanced technologies,especially those in the logistics sector which would gain from the introduction of digital platforms,GPS and IoT sensor technology,robotics and automation to name just a few.Indonesia has recently adopted a digital National Logistics Ecosystem(NLE)plan which is designed to improve the flow of logistics data and goods,domestically and internationally.Its aim is to simplify business and government processes;enhance public and private collaboration as well as creating a digital payment service.Two of its major goals are to reduce transit times from arrival at port to arrival at warehouse and reduce congestion on Indonesias roads through better planning.However,according to reports,take up has been slow and connectivity with other platforms low,showing the progress that still has to be made if the government is to fulfill its ambitions.Indonesia has very close links with China which is its largest trading partner(both in terms of imports and exports)and second largest provider of foreign direct investment.Chinas zero tolerance approach to Covid and the disruption this caused for its manufacturing and supply chain industry has had a significant impact on Indonesias economy.Whilst China plus sourcing strategies may have mitigated the effects of the policy to some extent,the renewed growth of the Chinese economy;the relaxation on mobility restrictions for Chinese business travelers;increased investment activity and the cessation of stop-start production would far outweigh these benefits.Indonesia 18ContentsThe high oil prices caused by Russias invasion of Ukraine and the positive impact which this has for the Saudi economy suggests that the country will make considerable progress up the rankings over the coming years.However,despite the short term gains,the Saudi government has been mindful of the prospect that at some stage its oil reserves will run out(although not for many decades)and that there is a political imperative in the global economy to transition to non-fossil fuels.Consequently there have been significant moves to diversify into alternative sectors.Logistics has been one of these priority areas which has attracted considerable government and foreign investment.Planning for the futureTo achieve its ambition of economic diversification,in 2016 the country adopted what it called the Saudi Vision 2030 programme.As part of that effort,Saudi Arabia has spent more than$100billion on infrastructure and related projects intended to position it as a global logistics hub at the crossroads of Asia,Europe and emerging Africa.Its targets include developing 60 logistics zones to support exports,e-commerce and re-exports,in addition to encouraging trade through land ports;the growth of re-export revenues from SAR 42 billion to SAR 520 billion riyals;export growth from SAR 185 billion to SAR 507 billion;and the expansion of the e-commerce sector from 6%to 23%of retail sales.In October 2022,a further initiative,Global Supply Chain Resilience,was launched which included the promise of a SAR 10 billion package of inducements to attract foreign investment of up to SAR 40 billion to the market.According to a statement by the Saudi government,The Covid-19 pandemic,trade disputes and the geopolitical landscape have broken or weakened global supply chains,driving up commodity prices and disrupting production and distribution.This initiative aims to strengthen the position of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the global economy,and to mitigate the impact of global disruptions.The Global Supply Chain Resilience Initiative will leverage the Kingdoms resources,infrastructure and location to bring greater resilience to economies and companies across Europe,the Americas and Asia.In effect,Saudi is positioning itself as a low risk,low cost and low carbon economy which would enable investors to access a large domestic market as well as reaching regional and global customers through its transport and logistics infrastructure links.Oil will obviously be a major factor in the economys development for many years to come.But the government wants to increase its level of value add(in a similar way,perhaps,to China and India)by using this resource to supply home-grown processing industries such as chemicals,pharmaceuticals,plastics and rubber.Building regional and global linksAs well as encouraging FDI,Saudi has also been an active investor in other emerging countries creating and developing strategic trade corridors.For instance,trade with India is expected to grow threefold by 2030.Whilst exports of crude petroleum will be an important element of this growth(Saudi is looking to invest$100 billion in Indias refining,energy and petrochemical industry)it will also target infrastructure and agriculture sectors.Likewise,the government also intends to develop its relationship with China,with trade expected to double by 2030.Its national oil company,Saudi Aramco,already has long term agreements to supply Chinas refineries and chemical plants.However,it intends to align its own 2030 Vision with the aims of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative and has signed deals in a range of sectors including logistics and transport,energy,manufacturing,e-commerce and petrochemicals,mining and housing.There is no doubt that Western markets will continue to be critical to the success of Saudi Arabias strategic vision.It is still heavily reliant on the price of oil for economic growth and a recession in Europe and the USA will inevitably depress oil revenues.However,in the medium term,emerging economies in Latin America,Africa and of course Asia will become increasingly important for Saudis economy as they will become relatively more important customers for oil.The decarbonizing West will still require an array of petrochemical products,including plastics,chemicals and pharmaceuticals which Saudi will also be able to supply.In summary,Saudi Arabia has the resources and ambition to become a major regional and global hub over the next decade,becoming a conduit for trade between some of the fastest growing markets in Asia and Africa,as well as serving the rest of the Middle East and parts of Europe.Its large domestic and export market will give it an advantage over other hub ports in the region which focus largely of transshipments.Its manufacturers will benefit from access to low cost oil and energy although investors should be cognizant of security risks,especially if relations with Iran deteriorate further.Saudi Arabia 19ContentsAgilitys Takeon Saudi ArabiaThe most exciting logistics markets in the world for logistics investment today is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia(KSA).With the government investing heavily in the sector as one of the key pillars of its Vision 2030 plan,Saudi Arabias ambition and execution are both helping the country make rapid progress.In 2021,the government announced that more than SAR 500 billion will be spent in the next decade on the development of airports,seaports,rail and other infrastructure.In 2022,Saudi launched the Global Supply Chain Initiative,with the aim of attracting$10 billion from investors to position the country as a global supply chain hub.The initiative included SAR 10 billion($2.66B)worth of financial incentives.KSAs new Special Integrated Logistics Zones,as well as the development of 40 industrial clusters and five economic zones,are expected to further help position the country as a leader in the region and beyond.Agility is investing heavily in developing high-quality supply chain infrastructure in the Kingdom,and has developed more than 1 million sqm of logistics parks across Riyadh and Damam.(Agilitys Riyadh warehousing complex was the first in the GCC to receive EDGE Advanced green building certification;the complex had to be 40% more energy efficient than others in the market in order to earn the designation.)In 2022,Agility announced that it would invest$163 million to further develop a warehousing complex on a 576,760 SQM parcel south of Jeddah,with construction starting in Q1 2023.20ContentsAlthough Qatar has recently been thrust into the glare of the worlds media by the global energy crisis and its hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup,its development as an important regional and global supply chain and logistics hub has been many years in the making.As with many countries in the region,it has made efforts to diversify from its dependence on hydrocarbon based revenues and,perhaps paradoxically,the present high price of Liquid Natural Gas(LNG)will provide the government with more resources to pursue this ambition.The development of the Qatar Freight Master Plan was due for completion by the end of 2022 as part of the countrys 2030 Vision policy.This sets out a long term transition to sustainable logistics,balancing population growth and urban development with the demand for transport and logistics services.Encouraging more manufacturers to base their operations in the country will also be critical in order to rebalance trade which is presently heavily weighted in favour of imports.A priority for the country is investment in Cold Chain facilities and services,catering for food and pharmaceuticals.Qatar has become a major hub for the region,with the majority of its temperature controlled warehouses based in Free Zones and distributed internationally by land.Qatars government has recognized the importance of digitalization to its economy and the supply chain sector in particular.It has entered into strategic partnership with major global technology players such as Google and Microsoft to develop cloud services which will allow customers to run workloads locally,creating a regional digital hub.This will be important as the country adopts a range of Industry 4.0 initiatives to digitalize and automate its supply chains.In the shorter term the World Cup has provided a major boost to the countrys logistics industry.Not only was Qatars population expected to rise by 1.8 million people throughout the tournament,translating into demand for hotel,food and medical requirements,but billions of dollars were spent in the run up on the construction of football stadia,transport infrastructure and hospitality facilities.This has resulted in a huge surge in demand for domestic and international transport services,warehousing and distribution as well as freight management and border processes.Obviously,hydrocarbons continue to play the dominant role in Qatars economy and intense competition for LNG on a global basis has led to significant new investment in gas fields and the transport infrastructure required to move the gas to global markets.For example,Qatars liquefaction capacity will increase from 77 million tonnes per year in 2022 to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027.As well as investment at home,the government has been keen to invest in port infrastructure around the world targeting the UK,US,Egypt and Germany,amongst others.This will provide the country with exclusive long term markets for its gas products,with commensurate economic and political leverage.Qatar 21ContentsCategorized as a Southeast Asian Lost Cost Country(LCC),Thailands economy has over the past two decades become increasingly integrated within Global Value Chains(GVCs)as companies have increasingly unbundled and out-sourced parts of their production.Although this has created many opportunities,the trend has meant that its economy has also become highly vulnerable to rising costs and supply chain disruption,such as that resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.It was particularly affected by the capacity challenges faced by the shipping industry on the transpacific lanes and the resultant high rates.However,the country has also become a beneficiary of the China plus risk mitigation sourcing strategies being increasingly employed by global manufacturers.Its high value production ecosystems,especially important in the electronic manufacturing services(EMS),medical equipment and agritech sectors,have provided a ready alternative for companies wishing to migrate away from or complement their Chinese suppliers.Whilst other Southeast Asian countries,such as Vietnam,may have lower labour costs,Thailand is more technologically advanced,especially in the green economy including the manufacture of electric vehicles(EVs).This has provided the country with a significant competitive advantage in the region.For Thailand to continue its development as a major supply chain hub in the region the government recognizes that it will need to promote further investment in its transport and digital infrastructure at the same time as ensuring inclusive and sustainable growth.The government also believes that small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)can play a major role in the growth of the economy if it is able to integrate them within GVCs.The government has developed what it calls Thailand 4.0 strategy which has the goal of creating a high-income status country by 2036.This includes prioritizing 12 sectors,not least those of logistics and digital,as well as focusing investment on infrastructure in the Eastern Economic Corridor(EEC)area which it intends will become a gateway to both Southeast Asia and the Asia Pacific region.Internationally,Thailands membership of the ASEAN group of countries and its signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)Agreement(which includes ASEAN members,Australia,China,Japan,Republic of Korea and New Zealand)will liberalize market access.As a result,Thai exporters will see lower or zero rate tariffs on tens of thousands of products and they will also benefit from more advantageous rules of origin regulations which will encourage global manufacturers to source within the region.Thailand 22ContentsMexico is at number nine in the Agility Emerging Market Logistics Index.However,given its location,scale and proximity to the worlds largest consumer market,USA,there is plenty of potential for it to move higher in the rankings.Due to the growing interest in near-sourcing as a result of the challenging conditions and relationship with China,it has often been said that this should be a golden era for investment in Mexico.For years,large parts of the Mexican economy have been integrated within US supply chains leading to economic growth in border cities and states.The Covid pandemic has encouraged a new wave of investment in cross-border factories as manufacturers have sought to avoid the problems on transpacific routes caused by congestion,delays and exceptionally high freight rates.With around 88%of exports to the US routed by road and rail,land-based logistics networks were not as badly affected as those reliant on movements of containers through the West Coast ports,although Mexican shippers were certainly not immune from the wider supply chain chaos caused by bottlenecks and congestion across the region.Setting aside the short term disruption which had largely subsided by the end of 2022,it would seem evident that the Mexican economy will significantly benefit from the deteriorating relationship between US and China.However,this will only occur if the Mexican government is able to build a more attractive business case for foreign investment.Despite being the 15th largest recipient of FDI in 2019,its record in this respect is mixed,as indicated by the stagnating of exports to the USA even prior to the Covid pandemic.Opportunities and challenges for MexicoMexicos proximity and access to the US market through the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement(USMCA)(the successor to the North America Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA)has long made it a near-sourcing location for manufacturers looking to supply the US market cheaply,quickly and with easier oversight of production processes and quality control.Moving goods from Mexico to the USA takes only weeks compared with several months spent in transit from China.Recent duty increases on goods imported to the USA from China have reinforced Mexicos position as an attractive alternative:the composite tariff rate imposed on Mexican goods is just 0.04%compared with 19.2%on Chinese imports.However,the market is far from straightforward and Mexico has challenges to overcome if it is to maximize the opportunities which China plus sourcing strategies offer.Mexico 23Contents LabourThe low cost of labour in Mexico is one of the main reasons why foreign manufacturers have chosen to base their production operations in the country.According to IHS Markit,the average manufacturing industry wage in 2022 in Mexico is$3.90 per hour,compared with$5.58 in China.The comparable wage in the USA is$30 per hour.Mexico also has an abundant and growing resource of labour with an estimated 7 million people available for work.However,wages are rising both as a result of market forces and government policy.The statutory minimum wage jumped by 20%in 2022 and pension reforms will increase employer contributions.The government will have an important role to play in creating a well-educated and skilled workforce.This will help employers as well as workers who will benefit from longer term and better remunerated positions within the formal jobs market.Growth is presently being constrained by a lack of managerial calibre candidates with manufacturers competing to hire from a small top-talent pool.The market also lacks skills which would allow the economy to break into high tech,advanced manufacturing such as semi-conductors.Security&CorruptionThe security situation in Mexico is one of the biggest headwinds to economic growth.One of the greatest risks related to supply chain involves the theft of cargo from trucks en route to the border with the US.Drug cartels also target legitimate shipments in which to infiltrate illicit goods.Corruption is also a major problem.Government officials,including Customs officers and law enforcement agents,can work in collaboration with organized crime.Mexicos position in Transparency Internationals Corruption Perception Index has fallen every year since 2012 and it is now ranked 124th out of 180 countries.Government investment policyThe Mexican government is prioritizing investment in transport infrastructure,with a financial package of$38.6 billion planned in 2022 to improve roads,bridges and railways.In addition,the US government has committed to invest$1.4 billion to build and modernize land ports on the US-Mexican border,matching that promised by President Obrador.However,the criticism has been levelled that Mexico has the lowest level of public investment amongst Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)countries.The government also intends to spread its investment across the country,not just on the regions which already have a focus on manufacturing and logistics,but poorer areas especially to the south.Although politically popular,this has meant a misalignment between industry needs and the infrastructure development which may not be in the long term economic interests of the country given its limited resources.24ContentsIn 2022,Vietnam moved into the Top Ten of the Index,illustrating the success which the country has had at developing its supply chain industry as well as showing how it has been able to benefit from China plus sourcing strategies of major multinational manufacturers.It has been able to attract many of the worlds most prestigious companies to its market,particularly those in the high tech sector.Electronics and consumer electricals accounted for 42%of exports in 2020,soaring from just 13%in 2010.Apple has been at the forefront of moving production to the market.In 2020 it began planning to expand assembly operations in Vietnam,asking Foxconn to expand its assembly operations in the country.Sony,Samsung and LG have also expanded production in Vietnam,building airfreight infrastructure in Hanoi to support their assembly of mobile phones.Certainly,Vietnam is at the front of the queue for the relocation of electronics production from China.However,whilst the country is exploiting these opportunities,it faces a major challenge to move up the value chain.For example,whilst Apple has created a production eco-system in the market,sourcing from 21 different companies,none of these is Vietnamese.Whilst China and India have focused their industrial policy on the creation of national champions,building brands instead of providing services to global OEMs,the Vietnamese market can be characterized as a low-cost assembly location.This may suit global manufacturers,looking for cheap labour in the region as wages and risk rises in China,but it means that it is not able to create value which would enable its manufacturing industry to develop.This will mean that it risks becoming stuck in a cycle of decline,faced with:High energy usage Low labour productivity Low efficiency High levels of pollution Low investmentHowever,there is also the risk that the market would get stuck in the middle income gap,where rising labour costs force foreign manufacturers to look elsewhere.If Vietnam is to move further up the rankings it will have to provide investors with a complete package of production eco-systems comprising multiple suppliers,strong ICT links,well trained workers and good logistics.The latter will be critical to its success with logistics costs presently running at 20%of GDP,7 percentage points higher than the average in Asia.Transport infrastructure projects are often slow to come to fruition plagued by delays,bureaucracy,mismanagement and a culture which penalizes risk taking.Even though Vietnam is exceptionally well placed to benefit from Chinas difficulties,the government has much work to do if it is to create a robust industrial environment which will attract high quality manufacturers and create value adding local suppliers.Vietnam25Contents1China8.4702India8.0403Indonesia6.3404Qatar5.9105UAE5.6006Brazil5.4217Saudi Arabia5.3818Mexico5.37-29Malaysia5.29010Pakistan5.16611Nigeria5.15112Egypt5.15213Turkey5.14-314Thailand5.11-115Kuwait5.07316Vietnam5.02117Bangladesh5.02418Philippines5.02119Russia5.01-820Bahrain4.99021Oman4.95122Jordan4.88223Algeria4.88324Argentina4.87125Chile4.83-226Lebanon4.81327South Africa4.81428Uruguay4.78029Peru4.72130Colombia4.67231Kazakhstan4.66232Morocco4.64233Tanzania4.62434Tunisia4.61135Ghana4.61136Kenya4.60237Iran4.57-2238Ecuador4.50239Sri Lanka4.49040Venezuela4.48141Libya4.48442Paraguay4.45443Cambodia4.45044Myanmar4.44045Bolivia4.44-346Ethiopia4.42247Uganda4.41048Angola4.37149Ukraine4.34-2250Mozambique4.250Domestic Logistics OpportunitiesChina top again but storm clouds gatherOnce again the top three ranking in the Domestic Opportunities sub-Index remain unchanged with China,India and Indonesia retaining their positions.Despite the well documented problems faced by China,the Index shows how important the market is in terms of size of economy,population and growth prospects.Other attributes such as urbanization,distribution of income and the size of the contract logistics and parcels delivery sector make the market impossible to ignore.The sheer scale of the country will mean that it will remain an investment priority in terms of logistics and supply chain for many years to come,especially once the governments zero tolerance Covid policy has been removed.However,the impact of intermittent lockdowns of various Chinese cities is inflicting considerable pain on the economy with many manufacturers reporting falls in output of up to 40%in affected regions.Economist Global Data believes that Chinas GDP will reach just 4.5%in 2022,well below the governments target.Its share of the world export market is also likely to decline.Global fashion brands,such as Nike,have faced the double hit that,as well as closing factories,they have also been forced to shut their retail outlets for the duration of each lockdown.One estimate suggests that sales have dropped by more than 50%in affected areas.Looking ahead,there are a range of other headwinds facing the country,including not least the recent societal unrest,its stance on Taiwan and security concerns in the West as it flexes its economic,political and military muscles on the global stage.This has led to other markets benefiting from so-called China plus sourcing strategies which have been implemented by manufacturers and retailers in an attempt to avoid US tariffs,legislation on the export of advanced technologies to China from the West and the ethical fall out from the treatment of the Uyghur community in the Xinjiang region.Make in India policy brings rewards and costsIndia has retained its position at number two in the rankings.The Make in India policy,initiated by Prime Minister Modi in 2014 as a way of encouraging investment in advanced manufacturing as well as fostering innovation and skill development,has been highly successful at promoting advanced manufacturing capabilities.In much the same way as China,India has prioritised the capture Domestic Logistics Opportunities26Contentsof higher levels of supply chain value by encouraging the development of Indian-based suppliers rather than relying on other Asian countries for the import of intermediate goods.The aim of the policy has been to propel double digit economic growth,create 100 million additional manufacturing jobs and increase manufacturings share of the economy to 25%by 2022(a target now pushed back to 2025).At the same time as encouraging Indian industry to become more integrated with Global Value Chains,the policy has been designed to protect local manufacturers and retailers by putting up barriers to market entry and increasing tariffs.At the very least,this sends out mixed messages to potential investors which will not be conducive to economic development.As we highlight below,Amazon is pulling out of the market partly due to protectionism,whilst in the section on International Logistics Opportunities,we show that paradoxically Apple is increasing its investment.India is an example of how many countries in the Emerging World view globalization.Many want to reap the undoubted rewards of integrating with global markets,but at the same time they want to protect their own markets from global competition.Whilst China has successfully blazed this trail,it is unclear if other markets,such as India,will have the economic and political heft to have it both ways.Brazil falls but Egypt soarsBrazil saw its ranking fall by three places as it undergoes a period of economic and political upheaval.According to foreign affairs think tank,Chatham House,the country is experiencing rising poverty and food insecurity with more than 33 million Brazilians in famine conditions and 63 million below the World Bank poverty threshold.The country is also split following a narrow victory in the polls by leftist Luiz Incio Lula da Silva over the conservative Jair Bolsonaro.GDP is expected to be very weak in the coming years whilst inflation has already taken hold.Domestic investment in infrastructure will be difficult to maintain with the countrys fiscal position so precarious.The biggest mover in the top ten was Egypt which climbed five places to number nine,displacing Turkey.Egypt has been one of Africas success stories over the past decade,outperforming most markets in the Middle East,North Africa and Sub-Saharan region,despite the impact which Covid has had upon its economy,especially tourism.The country now accounts for over a fifth of the continents manufacturing value add and the governments business friendly approach has been particularly successful at attracting international investors,not least in the high tech sector.The government has identified that embracing Industry 4.0 will be critical to the future success of its economy and its efforts so far have been focused on modernizing business processes fostering technological expertise to achieve this goal.Egypts government has initiated a$4 billion investment programme aimed at modernizing and increasing the capacity of the countrys ports on the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.This will not only aid the throughput of container traffic but is also designed to turn the country into an energy hub,including Liquid Natural Gas(LNG)terminals.The development of industrial parks,both public and private,will play an important role in the countrys economic growth.Many of these parks form part of specialized sector clusters,such as furniture or technology,helping to develop an eco-system of relevant competences and foster co-ordination between companies.The government hopes that they will facilitate the development of continental value chains.Global e-tailing platform,Amazon,announced in November 2022 that it was intending to discontinue its Amazon Distribution business which serves retail customers in Bengaluru,Mysore and Hubli with e-commerce wholesaling services.The service was largely aimed at kiranas,neighbourhood nanostores based in urban areas.Part of Amazons problems in the market come from well-resourced local competitors,such as Reliance Retail,Meesho and DealShare.However,the government has also put many barriers in its way including legislation which bans foreign retailers from holding inventory.This means that multinational retailers can only do business in India if they do so through stakes in local companies.Proposed legislation may even remove this loophole.Amazon retreats from IndiaEgypt prioritises port investment27ContentsAgilitys TakeThe Gender Gap:132 Years to Close?How big is the gap between men and women when it comes to economic opportunity,education,health and survival,and political empowerment?Big enough that it would take 132 years to erase at current rates.That is the sobering news in the World Economic Forums 2022 Gender Gap Report.It is especially alarming at a time when developed and developing countries alike are looking for ways to unlock their potential and spur sustainable,inclusive growth.Global gender parity in labor force participation is actually moving backwards,widening sharply since the pandemic struck in 2020.Thats when unemployment spiked in most countries.Across the board,jobless rates among women have been higher as millions had to prioritize child care and other care-giving roles that often left them homebound.The report says women are occupying a growing percentage of leadership roles.But that good news is tempered by the fact that female leaders are overrepresented in a small handful of sectors such as Non-Governmental Organization(NGO)and education while being almost absent from others,such as infrastructure and manufacturing.With the possibility of a global slowdown looming,emerging markets would do well to remember that theres a powerful correlation between the prosperity and stability of a society and the equality of opportunity it affords women.28Contents1China9.7502India7.4503Mexico6.3204Vietnam6.0315Thailand5.98-16Indonesia5.8907UAE5.8928Malaysia5.88-19Saudi Arabia5.74210Turkey5.70-211Brazil5.42112Russia5.41-213Philippines5.28014Chile5.18015Peru5.12016Morocco5.09117Colombia5.08-118South Africa5.00119Qatar4.96120Oman4.88121Jordan4.75122Sri Lanka4.73123Egypt4.72324Bahrain4.70125Kazakhstan4.66-126Ecuador4.65127Kenya4.65128Kuwait4.64429Pakistan4.63230Argentina4.63-131Lebanon4.61-132Tunisia4.48133Bangladesh4.48834Cambodia4.48035Bolivia4.46136Uruguay4.45237Ghana4.44038Ethiopia4.40439Mozambique4.39040Nigeria4.39341Uganda4.38-142Paraguay4.38-743Ukraine4.38-2544Angola4.30045Myanmar4.27046Algeria4.24147Tanzania4.14148Iran4.11-249Venezuela3.96050Libya3.810International Logistics OpportunitiesUnsurprisingly given its dominant position in world trade,China heads up the rankings for International Logistics Opportunities.It has an unassailable position in terms of its trade;air and sea freight forwarding and international express markets;its level of air cargo and shipping connectedness with other countries around the world and the efficiency of its border processes.However,there is no room for complacency as this year has shown.Political priorities in the shape of zero tolerance of Covid have had a disastrous effect on Chinas reputation as a reliable sourcing location for global manufacturers and retailers and this is leading to the rebalancing of global value chains across the region.Chinas zero Covid policy still causing supply chains chaosIn October 2022,disturbing pictures emerged from China showing workers at Foxconns Zhengzhou plant responsible for making around 60%of Apples iPhones staging a break out by scaling walls in order to avoid being locked down within the factory.A report in the Financial Times suggested that although production would be switched to alternative facilities,up to 10%of Apples global output was likely to be affected.Lockdowns are having disastrous consequences for international logistics.A reduction in trucking capacity in Shanghai of 45%in spring 2022 resulted in 80%of vessels being delayed,compared with just 20%two years earlier.Imports were also affected with containers waiting for up to 12 days for collection compared with pre-lockdown 4-5 days,according to digital forwarding platform,Freightos.Most recently in October authorities locked down the north eastern port city of Ningbo resulting in the closure of terminals and warehouses.They also instituted a whitelist of Covid-clear truck drivers although this did not prevent a subsequent outbreak amongst the driving community.Such disruptions and capacity constraints as these have led to falling export volumes which have combined with weaker demand in the US and Europe to put downward pressure on shipping rates.Air cargo volumes and rates also remain weak for the same reasons.International Logistics Opportunities29ContentsThe stand out climber in this years top ten of the International Logistics Opportunities rankings is the United Arab Emirates(UAE).The UAE has embraced trade liberalisation measures at a time when many other countries are once again embracing protectionist policies.For instance,the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(CEPA)entered into force in May 2022,which is steadily boosting the volumes of trade between the two countries.The main commodities between these two countries benefiting from the trade agreement include electronics,perishables,retail goods(including textile and apparel),and chemicals.This is driving increased shipping and air cargo services,such as Maersks Shaheen Express which will rotate throughout the India-UAE-Saudi Arabia corridor.Outside of the top ten,one of the biggest movers is Egypt rising four places to number 22.Despite being one of Africas largest markets,its focus lies very much on trade with Europe,Asia and North America.Links with the rest of the continent,with the exception of its North African neighbours,are weak and only 15%of its exports overall are shipped to African destinations.However,its membership of the African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA),which will reinforce its connections with 32 new trade partners,could be the catalyst for a change in emphasis in trade policy and deliver a host of new opportunities.These problems have resulted in significant volatility and uncertainty for global manufacturers and retailers and this in turn has led to increasing levels of inventory;orders being placed earlier and most critically for Chinas economy the use of suppliers based in neighbouring countries.Vietnam has been a key beneficiary of this trend,its furniture industry,for example,grew its share of global exports from 11%in 2019 to 17%in 2022 at the same time as Chinas has fallen from 61%to 53%(source:MDS Transmodal).Although rising Chinese labour costs,the imposition of Trumps tariffs and a whole host of risk mitigation measures taken by manufacturers have also been responsible for China plus sourcing strategies,lockdowns for many are proving to be the final straw.Perhaps the most high profile company to look elsewhere has been Apple for so long synonymous in many peoples minds with the trend of low cost out-sourcing from China.Asian countries to benefit from China plusHighest climbersApple has announced that it is to manufacture its latest iPhone 14 in India,marking a significant evolution in its production strategy with implications for its and its competitors supply chains.The move is part of the global tech giants plans to diversify its production base from China,a market which has seen considerable disruption over the past two years due to zero-Covid lockdown policies.Tensions between the US and China have also cast doubts over the longer term prospects of US high tech companies manufacturing products in China.For instance,new US legislation has allowed for the banning of the export of advanced semi-conductor chip technology to China.It is believed that as well as assembly operations,Apple will use more Indian suppliers(presently many intermediate components are sourced from China)helping to develop a production eco-system and reduce input costs.This will,in turn,encourage other high tech manufacturers to the country as levels of know-how,a skilled work force,technology and transport infrastructure improve.Many competitors,such as Samsung,may also follow,keen not to lose competitive advantage in a fast growing market.Apples move shows a high degree of confidence in the Indian market both as a design and production hub as well as a consumer market.It also forms part of an industry-wide trend of increasing resilience through optionalization or China plus supply chain strategies.It is not clear what proportion,if any,of Apples iPhones will be exported to the global market.However,it certainly gives the company more options should manufacturing in China become more difficult or,indeed,impossible.Apple ramps up production in India30ContentsBusiness FundamentalsAs opposed to scale and prospects,the Business Fundamentals Index measures how easy it is do business in a particular market from a regulatory,operational and commercial perspective.Therefore,it takes into account such metrics as the burden of governmental regulations,the robustness of legislation pertaining to property rights,the ability to enforce contracts as well as levels of crime and violence,corruption,quality of infrastructure and access to credit.Consequently,whilst the two previous sub-indices were dominated by large markets such as China and India,smaller but well run countries make up a large part of the top ten.The UAE once again can claim to provide the most robust framework in which to do business,followed this year by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.Other Middle East/North African countries in the top ten include Oman,Bahrain,Morocco and Jordan.Rule of law essentialOne of the reasons for the preponderance of Middle Eastern countries in the top ten is the stability provided to companies by a robust legal system.The application of international law is a prerequisite for business confidence and the UAE has received a boost in this regard from increased cooperation with English courts.Abu Dhabi and Dubai courts will be recognised by their English counterparts,upholding principles of reciprocity.Although this agreement will have specific legal implications,more generally it provides international businesses with trust in the processes of the UAE legal system,something which cannot be said for all emerging markets.Saudi Arabia has also passed a new Companies Law which it is claimed will boost investment in the market in line with Saudi Vision 2030.The new law will provide investors greater flexibility and protection of their business interests as well as allowing some forms of companies to raise finance through the issue of bonds.At the other end of the scale,6 of the bottom 10 emerging markets are located in Africa,including Angola,Mozambique,Libya,Ethiopia,Nigeria and Uganda.This highlights the lack of governance,the incidence of crime,the fragile security environment as well as weak infrastructure throughout the region.However,there are shining examples of more successful African countries,not least Ghana which rose 6 places in the index to 22nd position just ahead of South Africa in 23rd and Kenya in 24th.Unlike many of its neighbours,Ghana has been 1UAE9.1002Qatar7.9223Saudi Arabia7.8604Malaysia7.85-25Oman7.2416Bahrain7.15-17China7.1118Chile7.01-19Jordan6.72110Morocco6.45-111Kuwait6.23112Kazakhstan6.19-113Uruguay6.14014India5.94015Turkey5.80116Indonesia5.77-117Thailand5.77018Egypt5.62119Vietnam5.61120Russia5.13-221Tunisia5.06122Ghana5.00623South Africa4.99024Kenya4.97125Mexico4.93-426Tanzania4.70027Algeria4.61-328Colombia4.55229Ecuador4.49-230Peru4.48-131Iran4.38432Sri Lanka4.32133Philippines4.31-134Paraguay4.30235Argentina4.24536Cambodia4.16137Brazil4.13238Pakistan4.13-439Ukraine3.95-840Uganda3.91141Lebanon3.79-342Bolivia3.74043Nigeria3.62044Bangladesh3.53045Ethiopia3.21046Mozambique2.17047Myanmar2.04148Libya1.96149Angola1.90-250Venezuela1.560Business Fundamentals31Contentsable to create an attractive economic and regulatory environment for investors and domestic companies not least due to its stable government and liberalising policies.However,there are still high levels of bureaucracy in the market which stifle innovation and which will prevent businesses from benefiting from greater integration with the worlds economy.A lack of governance and the absence of a policing or security framework can lead to a rise in criminality which compromises supply chains,both from the perspective of cargo crime and theft as well as from smuggling and counterfeiting.Even global logistics hubs in best-in-class markets such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia are vulnerable to these risks.Smuggling and counterfeiting risksIt is noticeable that of the Latin American countries in the Index,Mexico has fallen the fastest,by 4 positions to 25th.The security situation in Mexico is one of the greatest headwinds to its economic growth.One of the greatest risks related to supply chain involves the theft of cargo from trucks en route to the border with the US.Drug cartels also target legitimate shipments in which to infiltrate illicit goods.Corruption is also a major problem.Government officials,including Customs officers and law enforcement agents,often work in collaboration with organized crime.Given that Mexico appears in the top ranks of both domestic and international logistics opportunities,the country is clearly being held back by its challenging security and governance environment.Spotlight:Emerging Market hub vulnerability to illicit tradeOne of the major challenges faced by many logistics hubs is how to deal with the high levels of smuggling which can occur at such locations.Some countries are particularly vulnerable not only due to the high volumes of cargo flows which are concentrated at their ports and airports but also due to the number of Free Trade Zones(FTZs)located in their markets.FTZs,by their very nature,have lower administrative oversight as well as simplified customs procedures which can facilitate illegal activity by criminal gangs such as trafficking contraband.High level of re-exports make busy shipping hubs particularly attractive for criminals as locations to infiltrate counterfeit goods or drugs into shipping containers in order to hide their true point of origin.In much the same way as they function for legitimate trade,ports and airports in emerging markets can act as transit points for the movement of illicit goods to Western countries.In this respect the growth of small parcel volumes driven by the importance of e-commerce is clearly of significance.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)estimates that 84%of seized shipments of counterfeit footwear and two thirds of electronic devices involved postal parcels or express shipments.As parcels volumes climb,this problem will only become worse unless the root cause is addressed.Overall,it can be concluded that counterfeiters prosper in markets where there is poor governance;little oversight of free trade areas and high levels of corruption.Once they have accessed the global logistics networks through sea,air and then injected fake goods into post and parcels networks there is little that the authorities in developed markets can do.Their own agencies are being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of parcels which are being generated.In order to help address the problem,the UAE has put in place a range of measures including better physical security;training security professionals and comprehensive screening standards.Through Dubai Customs,it is working alongside the European Anti-Fraud Office(OLAF)to investigate incidences of counterfeiting and implement robust systems which reduce their probability.32ContentsKenya has been a trailblazer in African start-up initiatives.As a result,it accounts for about a third of the continents start-up incubators and accelerators,according to the World Economic Forum.The Kenyan government has been quick to enable and implement new legislation when required to encourage development,and this has resulted in faster start-up execution.The leading example is the legal framework put in place to allow for the widely adopted payment platform M-Pesa.M-Pesa transformed the mobile banking service sector initially in Kenya,but has now grown to Tanzania,Mozambique,DRC,Lesotho,Ghana,Egypt and South Africa.Kenya has also been very entrepreneurial and embraced an incubator hub ecosystem,where start-ups can access knowledge,advice and funding helping to support the growth and implementation of innovative solutions.GDP growth in Kenya is forecasted to be amongst the strongest in the region in 2023,according to the IMF.Kenya continues to develop as the regional centre for trade,and the gateway for the East Africas landlocked markets.The expansion of the EAC to include the Eastern DRC is a further step in Kenyas dominance in regional trade.The peaceful conclusion of the 2022 presidential vote is a good signal for Kenyas institutional strengthening and political stability.Agilitys TakeKenya33ContentsDigital Readiness1India7.6142UAE7.37-13Malaysia6.72-14China6.63-15Qatar6.3826Saudi Arabia6.30-27Indonesia6.2118Thailand6.04-29Philippines5.99110Oman5.81511Kuwait5.76112Kenya5.56513Chile5.55-414Turkey5.50-315Vietnam5.43-116Bahrain5.34617Uruguay5.22218Brazil5.19-219Iran5.15120Jordan5.14721Ghana5.14222Russia5.14-923Sri Lanka5.12724Mexico5.11-625Kazakhstan5.10326Pakistan5.06-227South Africa5.01-628Egypt5.00-229Ukraine4.91330Lebanon4.80831Cambodia4.73632Paraguay4.72333Morocco4.69334Argentina4.68-935Bangladesh4.63-136Nigeria4.61-537Peru4.58-438Tanzania4.58139Colombia4.53-1040Tunisia4.39141Uganda4.24-142Ecuador4.03143Venezuela3.99144Algeria3.91-245Ethiopia3.64046Bolivia3.45047Mozambique3.22048Angola3.11049Myanmar2.79050Libya1.840Digital ReadinessAdopting Industry 4.0This category,introduced for the first time last year,looks at a range of what could be termed Industry 4.0 measures to assess how equipped a country is to face the challenges of a digital yet more sustainable future.It uses metrics which provide an insight into how well a country fosters entrepreneurs and start ups;access to banking amongst the population;levels of adoption of renewable energies;digital skills and the importance of e-commerce to its economy.This year India tops the ranking for digital readiness,moving up four places.Its rise to the top has largely been driven by the increasing importance of e-commerce in the country at a time when adoption has slowed in other emerging markets.Six Indian e-commerce companies became unicorns in 2022 with a total valuation of$7.9 billion and three went public,Ethos,Delhivery and Fone4.34ContentsThe adoption of e-commerce is not just related to the technology which underpins the platforms.Other factors,measured by the sub-index,are just as critical,such as the number of people who have access to bank accounts.Although Cash On Delivery(COD)is frequently used in many parts of the world where buyers do not have accounts,this is costly and inefficient.The buyer often refuses the delivery which nevertheless is paid for by the retailer and even if the delivery is successfully made,the cash then needs to be repatriated up the supply chain.Additionally,no access to a bank account prevents micro-retailers from engaging with platforms which could allow them access to world markets.Despite the traditional prevalence of cash in many emerging market societies,the Covid pandemic has been a catalyst for change in the use of COD in the e-commerce supply chain.Governments such as Indonesias(7th in digital readiness index and rising one place)introduced countermeasures to prevent the spread of germs on notes and coins and,consequently,the COD rate is expected to drop from 16%to 11%by 2025.In contrast,use of mobile wallets has grown from 23%in 2019 to 28%in 2022.58%of e-commerce transactions in Indonesia are carried out on a mobile device.Of course,access to Broadband is also essential for the growth of the e-commerce market.Nine out of ten of the leading countries in the Index have 4G penetration rates of 80%or over(Saudi Arabia being the exception with a rate of 79.2%).At the other end of the scale,the penetration rate of many of the lowest ranked countries is in the mid-50%range.Clearly investment in ICT infrastructure will be essential if these markets are to reap the economic rewards of Industry 4.0.Digital finance and broadband penetration key to e-commerce adoptionSpotlight:Indias double edged swordSince the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,the Indian government has been committed to a Make in India policy and to achieve these goals ensuring that the economy becomes digitally ready is critical.Creating manufacturing ecosystems which support advanced manufacturing is part of its strategy,and this involves the encouragement of a vibrant start up and Micro,Small and Medium Enterprises(MSME)sector.To this end a specialist ministry has been established,coordinating a range of schemes and support packages which includes financing such as the Startup India Seed Fund.Whilst encouraging technology start ups,the government is also pursuing a protectionist policy to discourage global platforms and more specifically ban 59 Chinese apps from the market.These have included ByteDances TikTok,Tencent Holdings WeChat and Alibabas UC Browser.In addition,Modi has imposed a tax on digital services affecting global platforms.This policy has been enthusiastically embraced by Mukesh Ambani,the chairman of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries and a supporter of Modi.He is quoted as saying,“We have to collectively launch a new movement against data colonization.For India to succeed in this data-driven revolution,we will have to migrate the control and ownership of Indian data back to India in other words,Indian wealth back to every Indian.”Whilst it is positive that India is fostering local talent and supporting the development of home grown industries,building barriers to foreign technology carries its own risk.The market will be denied efficiencies and capabilities which are available to companies in other parts of the world as India seeks to build its own alternatives.Whilst justified on the basis of national sovereignty and protecting nascent Indian start ups,this policy is likely to be counterproductive.35ContentsAgilitys TakeThe Path to Recovery Runs through Small BusinessSmaller enterprises are critical to the worlds two most pressing challenges.The first of those is how to spur broad-based,equitable and sustainable economic growth,especially in emerging markets.The second is how to decarbonize to meet net-zero climate goals.When the pandemic struck in 2020,small and medium-sized businesses were quickly targeted with direct government assistance,public loan guarantees,tax relief and other aid intended to keep them afloat and provide them with incentives to avoid shedding workers.Despite the help,a look at SMEs in 32 countries found that most lost 30%to 50%of their revenue between February 2020 and April 2021.Small businesses represent 90%of all companies and generate nearly 70%of jobs and GDP globally.They are the bedrock of developed and developing economies alike,and at the heart of economic growth strategies for most emerging markets looking to climb the development curve.The long-term viability of many micro-enterprises,startups,entrepreneur-led organizations and other SMEs will be determined by their ability to 1.)go digital and 2.)plug into global value chains by selling to domestic market customers engaged in cross-border trade.Digital transformation remains underway in businesses of all sizes,and in all sectors and geographies.But small enterprises are generally less digitalized than medium-sized companies,which in turn are less digitalized than big corporations.One reason,of course,is that so many digital tools and solutions are priced and tailored to the needs of larger organizations.In the case of small businesses,the challenge of going digital is especially difficult but the need to do so is increasingly apparent.Research shows that the largest 10%of companies in digital channels reap 60%to 95%of digital revenues.If we want a future with shared prosperity and sustainable growth,we must make sure small businesses are part of digital transformation.On the trade front,the deck is stacked against smaller enterprises.Half of all free trade agreements contain at least one provision explicitly mentioning small businesses,“but all of them will reflect the priorities of larger companies who are often seen as national champions,”says the European Centre for International Political Economy.For smaller companies that cant easily absorb the costs and risks entailed in exporting,whats important is to look at their potential as“indirect”exporters producers whose goods reach international markets through sales in their home markets.Education and skills lay foundationsDigital readiness critical to social cohesionDigital skills in the work force will also be a major factor in the ability of emerging markets to leverage future opportunities.This is reflected in the sub-index by the high ranking of many of the richer Middle Eastern countries(e.g.UAE(2nd),Qatar(5th),Saudi Arabia(6th),Oman(10th)and Kuwait(11th)which have in the last two decades invested heavily in their human capital.This includes the establishment of universities;increasing years of schooling;a focus of maths literacy and STEM subjects and staff training in the work place.A survey undertaken by publisher,Wiley,revealed that governments in the UAE,Qatar and Saudi Arabia had a particularly strong understanding of the digital skills landscape and the engagement which was required between government,industry and academia.Industry is evolving at a fast pace and it is clear that those countries which are not digitally ready to embrace the new market environment risk falling even further behind their competitors.This is a huge problem,not just for the digital have nots but for the international community as a whole.At a time of global food shortages and increasing levels of poverty,the gap between those digitally connected and unconnected can create and amplify social and economic inequality leading to unrest and the risk of failed states.It will also delay adoption of green technologies,essential to the arrest of climate change which is of critical importance to many countries in the Emerging World.36ContentsThe Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2023 Survey IntroductionRecoveryWhich of the following statements most closely matches your opinion on global economic prospects for 2023?2023 will see moderate to strong growth in the global economyA global recession in 2023 is likelyA global recession in 2023 is unlikely to happenThere is little or no chance of global recession in 2023There will be a global recession in 20232022 was meant to be the year that global trade and supply chains recover and return to normality,but instead the world has faced a series of black swan events,including:The war in Ukraine,which has impacted global trade flows and oil and energy prices A zero-Covid policy in China that has caused port congestion and delays More extreme climate eventsThese factors have caused prolonged issues along global supply chains.Add to the pressure pot the urgent need to invest in decarbonisation,digitalisation and technology,as well as a looming global recession,the challenge for logistics supply chain executives will be to brace for more challenging times ahead.Note:Transport Intelligence and Agility surveyed 750 logistics industry professionals between November and December 2022,with an additional 503 surveyed specifically on global economic prospects in October,November and December 2022.To measure logistics executives sentiment on the state of the global economy,respondents were asked whether they anticipate a global recession in 2023.Combining all responses that predict a recession shows that two thirds of respondents expect a global recession in the year ahead.This highlights the intensity of the uncertainty gripping the global economy.13.9B.7.1%7.6#.77ContentsWorsening economic sentiment between October and December 2022Which of the following statements most closely matches your opinion on global economic prospects for 2023?The results also show that economic sentiment has worsened between October and December 2022,with the proportion of respondents that are certain a global recession in 2023 is inevitable increasing by 6 percentage points in December compared to October.The forecast of a recession from 66.4%of respondents comes amidst sharp growth slowdowns across the largest economies.The global economy has been characterized by strong demand at the start of 2022 with the re-opening effect resulting from the end of Covid-19 measures,and the stimulus packages working at full speed.Overall,a generally firm but incomplete recovery from Covid-19 was shaping the global economies before the war in Ukraine.However,demand started to soften as early as Q2 2022 and the global economy entered the slow lane.The war acted as a major setback to recovery,causing a global slowdown.In October 2022,the IMF marked GDP growth down for 2023 to 2.7%,the“weakest growth profile”since 2001,excluding the acute phase ofCovid-19pandemic and the global financial crisis.Downward forces will gain more of an upper hand across the world in 2023 and a confluence of headwinds will halt the recovery and growth momentum of global economies-the war in Ukraine,an energy crisis,high inflation,and the possibility of further pandemic-related supply-side disruptions.A global recessionin 2023 is likelyThere will be aglobal recessionin 20232023 will see moderateto strong growth inthe global economyA global recessionin 2023 is unlikelyto happenThere is little orno chance of globalrecession in 202301020304050Oct 22Nov 22Dec 2238ContentsWhich of the following statements best describes each regions current stage of economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic?01020304050Asia PacificMiddle East&North AfricaRussia,Caucasus&Central AsiaSouth AmericaSub-SaharanAfrica18.43.1.3%8.2.44.99.5.3.69.96.0.5.4A.40.9.2%9.99.8).3!.0%Fully recovered AND stronger than pre-pandemicEconomy is still hindered by the pandemicRecovered but not yet to pre-pandemic levelThe worst economic impacts of the pandemic are still to comeOf the five regions examined,Asia Pacifics regional economy exhibits the strongest economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic,but is still below the pre-pandemic level,according to survey respondents.Growth in most countries in Asia Pacific rebounded in the first half of 2022,on the back of a revived domestic demand after the Covid-19 Delta wave.However,China lost momentum and the public health measures to contain outbreaks of Covid reduced consumption.Most of the region was projected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022 than other regions according to the World Bank.This resilience of the region very much stems from its positioning along global value chains and in particular its prominent role in high-value industries such as electronics,where the region has gradually upgraded its global value chain participation by doing the higher value-added stages like design and production.Recent increases in Chinas production costs have created opportunities for other countries in the region,including Malaysia,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam,to increase their participation in the electronics sector global value chain.A third of respondents believe that Asia Pacific economy is still hindered by the pandemic,highlighting the considerable heterogeneity across the region and the varying rates at which individual economies are recovering from the pandemic.Growth in the regions advanced economies remains above potential at 2.3%in 2022 and is expected to fall to 2.0%in 2023 and to 1.9%in 2024 according to the IMF.By contrast,Asia Pacifics developing economies will see a drop in growth to 4.4%in 2022 largely due to the slowdown in Chinaand will rise to 4.9%in 2023 and 5.2%in 2024,according to the IMF.Beyond 2022,global deceleration and the resulting slowdown of external demand,as well as rising debt could drag on growth in Asia Pacific.Measures aimed at containing inflation and debt could also inhibit growth.While Asia Pacific remains a relative bright spot in an i
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TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS3TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSAbout This Topic Guide was developed within the framework of the SUMPs-Up project,funded under the European Unions Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement no 690669.TitleTopic Guide:Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning in Smaller Cities and Towns CitationRupprecht Consult(eds.).2021.Topic Guide:Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning in Smaller Cities and Towns.AuthorsLasse Brand,Susanne Bhler,Siegfried Rupprecht(Rupprecht Consult)ContributorsMorgane Juliat,Henning Gnther,Wolfram Buchta,Kristian Salte,Daniel Mickos(Rupprecht Consult);Rasmus Sundberg(Trivector);Andrius Jarzemskis(Smart Continent);Thomas Durlin(Cerema);Antal Gertheis and Andrs Eks(Mobilissimus);Sebastian Spundflasch(TU Ilmenau).ReviewersThomas Durlin(Cerema),Rasmus Sundberg(Trivector),Andras Ekes(Mobilissimus),lan OBrien(European Investment Bank/JASPERS);Vincent Leiner(European Commission-DG REGIO),Madeleine Kelly-Tychtl(European Commission -DG MOVE)Proofreading:Kristin Tovaass,Amelie Metze(Rupprecht Consult)Acknowledgement This publication is made possible thanks to the contributions made by organisations involved in the SUMPs-Up project,all of whom are credited for their respective contributions.Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors named and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.Copyright This publication is the copyright of Rupprecht Consult-Forschung&Beratung GmbH and is subject to Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.All images in this publication are the property of the organisations or individuals credited.Cover picture:Delft PixabayDesign and Layout:Morgane Juliat(Rupprecht Consult)ContactsRupprecht Consult GmbHClever Strasse 13-15,50668 Cologne,GermanyJuly 2021ImprintContentsGuide to the reader 5Executive summary 61 Introduction:The specific mobility challenges in smaller cities and towns 811 Target group 812 Mobility challenges 92 The benefits of SUMP for smaller cities and towns 1121 Mobility benefits 1122 Planning Benefits 123 The 8 SUMP principles in the context of smaller cities and towns 144 Sustainable urban mobility planning steps in smaller cities and towns 1841 PHASE 1:Preparation and analysis 19411 Step 1:Set up working structures 20412 Step 2:Determine the planning framework 24413 Step 3:Analyse the mobility situation 2842 PHASE 2:Strategy development 32421 Step 4:Build and jointly assess scenarios 32422 Step 5:Develop a vision and objectives with stakeholders 33423 Step 6:Set targets and indicators 3743 PHASE 3:Measure planning 40431 Step 7:Select measure packages with stakeholders 40432 Step 8:Agree on actions and responsibilities 45433 Step 9:Prepare for SUMP adoption and financing 4844 PHASE 4:Implementation and monitoring 50441 Step 10:Manage implementation 50442 Step 11:Monitor,adapt and communicate 52443 Step 12:Review and learn lessons 535 Sustainable mobility measures for smaller cities and towns 5551 Safe and healthy schools 5652 Liveable residential areas within a well-structured street network 5853 Strengthening cycling as a daily mode of transport 6054 Strengthening walking 6255 Public space activation 6456 Parking management for a vibrant city centre 6757 Attractive places for working and living 6858 Attractive public transport 7259 Tailored car and ridesharing 76510 Sustainable freight and logistics 796 List of references 817 Annex-Checklist 844TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS5TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSGuide to the readerThis document provides guidance on how to successfully develop and implement a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan(SUMP)in smaller cities and towns.It applies the concept of SUMP,as outlined by the European Commissions Urban Mobility Package1 and described in detail in the European SUMP Guidelines(second edition)2,to the planning realities of urban areas with less than 100,000 inhabitants.Based on analyses of their specific challenges and opportunities,it presents planning methods,tools and policies that have proven to be effective accompanied by good practise examples from all over Europe.As a self-standing document,this SUMP primer allows you to get the essentials of the SUMP Guidelines without having to consult the extensive main Guidelines.As a transport planner or policymaker of a smaller city or town,we recommend reading this guide first.Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning is a strategic and integrated approach to dealing with the complexity of urban transport.Its core goal is to improve accessibility and quality of life by achieving a shift towards sustainable mobility.SUMP advocates fact-based decision making guided by a long-term vision for sustainable mobility.It requires a thorough assessment of the current situation and future trends,a common vision with strategic objectives,and an integrated set of regulatory,promotional,financial,technical and infrastructural measures.Implementing these measures to deliver the objectives should also be accompanied by reliable monitoring and evaluation.In contrast to traditional planning approaches,SUMP particularly emphasises the involvement and cooperation across different levels of government,with citizens,stakeholders,and private stakeholders.Further emphasis should also be placed on the coordination of policies between sectors(transport,land use,environment,economic development,social policy,health,safety,energy,etc.).This document is part of a compendium of guidance documents,complementing the revised second edition of the SUMP Guidelines.They elaborate on difficult planning aspects in more detail,provide guidance for specific contexts,or focus on important policy fields.Two types of guidance document are available.While Topic Guides provide comprehensive planning 1 Annex 1 of COM(2013)91.2 Rupprecht Consult(editor),Guidelines for Developing and Implementing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan,Second Edition,2019.recommendations on established topics,Practitioner Briefings are less elaborate documents addressing emerging topics with a higher level of uncertainty.So far,guidance documents have been published on how to address the following topics in a SUMP process:Planning process:Participation;Monitoring and evaluation;Institutional cooperation;Measure selection;Action planning;Funding and financing;Procurement.Contexts:Metropolitan regions;Polycentric regions;Smaller cities;National support.Policy fields:Safety;Health;Energy(SECAPs);Logistics;Walking;Cycling;Parking;Shared mobility;Mobility as a Service;Intelligent Transport Systems;Electrification;Access regulations;Automation;Resilience;Social impact assessment;Gender and vulnerable groups.They are part of a growing knowledge database that will be regularly updated with new guidance contexts.The latest documents are always available in the Mobility Plans section of the European Commissions urban mobility observatory Eltis(www.eltis.org).Image Freepik6TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS7TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSExecutive summaryThis guide applies the SUMP Guidelines to the planning realities of smaller cities and towns.Recent surveys have shown that cities with a population of less than 100,000 are much less likely to develop Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans(SUMPs)than their larger counterparts and are also underrepresented in good practice databases and the community of experts.This indicates that they face specific challenges and need a dedicated guidance document for this target group.Smaller cities and towns often have fewer resources and expertise for strategic mobility planning,making it more difficult to develop SUMPs.They also tend to have a stronger car-dependency and weaker public transport,which can make it feel even more daunting to pursue a sustainable vision.On the other hand,smaller cities and towns often have well-connected social communities and more walkable and bikeable distances,offering ideal opportunities for sustainable mobility.Based on an analysis of their specific challenges and opportunities,this guide provides smaller cities and towns with planning methods,tools and policies that have proven to work well in smaller urban areas.It also includes a variety of good practice examples from all over Europe,highlighting the benefits of SUMP for some of the most common problems in smaller cities and towns.Image Freepiksmaller cities and towns often have well-connected social communities and more walkable and bikeable distances”8TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS91.INTRODUCTION1.INTRODUCTIONTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS1 Introduction:The specific mobility challenges in smaller cities and townsin their hinterland.8 This causes daily flows of people and goods between the cities and their surroundings.While towns usually provide basic infrastructure and daily services for the surrounding communities,smaller cities tend to also provide periodical services,such as hospitals,cinemas,law practices,public swimming pools and secondary schools.However,the functional position does not only depend on the size of the settlement,but also on its spatial location in relation to other cities:If there are no cities of similar or bigger size close by(centre of its catchment area),the settlement usually is an administrative and economic centre with more jobs and services and many inbound commuters.If it is part of a network of two or more smaller cities of similar size located close to each other(polycentric region),they tend to share functions,leading to a network of inbound and outbound traffic flows.However,if the town is located close to one or more bigger cities(for example within a metropolitan area),it usually offers fewer jobs and services and many residents commute to the neighbouring bigger city for work and periodical services.Depending on how close by it is,a smaller city can even function more like a suburb.The economic strength and growth dynamics also influence the means and possibilities for sustainable mobility.While smaller cities in metropolitan areas are often growing,mainly as affordable housing locations for commuters,many other towns struggle to remain prosperous and competitive in a globalised economy.Even though many different kinds of smaller cities and towns exist,they face common challenges in mobility planning such as limited resources,car-dependent communities and weak public transport.This guide is written for the full range of smaller cities and towns,providing examples of different types,sizes and geographic locations but leaving aside extreme cases with very specific challenges,such as tourist destinations with major seasonal variations.In general,it should be understood as a flexible and inspirational document rather than providing strict instructions.Planners and policy-makers are encouraged to select what is optimal for them and to make adaptions as required to their specific planning situation.8 https:/www.espon.eu/programme/projects/espon-2013/applied-research/town-small-and-medium-sized-towns 12 Mobility challenges Smaller cities and towns develop Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans less often,and are less familiar with strategic transport planning than bigger cities,due to limited resources and the perception that the negative impact of traffic is less severe.9 This perception misses the manifold consequences of a transport system.For example,while air pollution indeed tends to be less of a problem,smaller cities are often heavily affected by the lack of activity of their residents,the effect of shop closures or the discontinuation of other services in the town centre,by young people moving away,by unsafe roads and speeding cars,and by noise from through traffic.Mobility situationIn terms of the mobility situation,smaller cities and towns tend to be car-oriented communities with a low share of public transport.Getting around by car is often the easiest option,as there is little congestion and few parking constraints.Residents benefit from more walkable and bikeable distances within the town,but travel longer distances on average,as many people commute to other towns for work,school or other daily necessities.This and the often lacking infrastructure for walking and cycling leads to a lower share of active modes.Providing attractive public transport is often a challenge in smaller cities.If it is in place,it tends to have a low frequency and does not cover all areas.10 In many cases,it is too costly to provide regular public transport due to a small number of potential users as well as often large areas that need to be covered.On the other hand,these cities face the same demographical changes as larger municipalities with a rising number of older people and a poor public transport service at the same time.11 A challenge is to organise public transport regionally,across municipal borders.Since many people commute to other towns every day to work,study or shop,this is a crucial issue,but often not coordinated well.12These specific circumstances mean that different types of measure are useful in smaller cities and towns compared to bigger cities.Measures that require a certain density or city size(e.g.free-floating car or bike-sharing,metros,trams)or large investments and specialised technical capacities(e.g.Intelligent Transportation Systemmeasures)tend to be difficult.On the other hand,there are often opportunities to greatly improve the situation with proven measures(e.g.walking and cycling paths,modernised bus systems,safe road Many of the resources on sustainable mobility planning are aimed at larger cities.However,a large number of European citizens live in smaller cities and towns,which face their own specific challenges.In this guide,we take a closer look at the planning methods,tools and policies that have proven to work well on a smaller scale.11 Target groupThis guide is written for transport planners and policymakers in smaller cities and towns,defined3 as settlements with a population of 5,000 to 100,000 people and a density of more than 300 people per km.This differentiates them from rural areas and larger cities.Compared with other continents,Europe is characterised by many smaller cities and towns4.Half of all the cities in the EU,420 out of 828,are smaller cities(population of 50,000 to 100,000)and are home to 7.5%of the 3 Combination of ESPON and Eurostat definitions.ESPON:https:/www.espon.eu/programme/projects/espon-2013/applied-research/town-small-and-medium-sized-towns;Eurostat:http:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:City;http:/ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/focus/2012_01_city.pdf.ESPON&Eurostat:Town 5,000;Small city=50,000 100,000.Density of 300/km=town in ESPON terminology.4 Eurostat 2016,p.9,http:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-statistical-books/-/KS-01-16-691 population.5 There are over 8,000 towns with 5,000 to 50,000 inhabitants which accounts for 21.6%of the population.6 Together,this means that almost 30%of the EU population live in smaller cities and towns.But population size and density are not the only important factors for transport planning:the administrative and functional position of a settlement also has a strong impact.7 The administrative competencies of smaller cities and towns vary considerably between countries,but in most EU member states they represent a segment of the local government with some degree of authority for mobility planning in its territory.The functional position of cities is influenced by their size.The majority have a clustering effect of jobs,services and other functions that serve other settlements 5 Based on data for EU27 Croatia,Iceland,Norway and Switzerland for 2006:European Commission 2012,p.4,http:/ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/focus/2012_01_city.pdf 6 Servillo L.,Atkinson R.,Smith I.,Russo A.,Skora L.,Demazire C.,Hamdouch A.(2014)TOWN,small and medium sized towns in their functional territorial context,Final Report,Espon,Luxembourg,p.8.https:/www.espon.eu/programme/projects/espon-2013/applied-research/town-small-and-medium-sized-towns7 Akademie Fr Raumforschung und Landesplannung(2016):”Space in Crisis The Future of Small&Medium-Sized Cities”(Conference note).&https:/www.ippr.org/files/publications/pdf/city-systems_June2016.pdf Image:Lindau Eurocities-European Mobility Week 11TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS10TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS1.INTRODUCTIONinfrastructure),because these“low-hanging fruit”have not been harvested due to a lack of investment.Many solutions specifically target the mobility structure of smaller communities(e.g.on-demand buses)or work particularly well there(e.g.cost efficiently and quickly creating a useful cycling network with speed reductions and bicycle boulevards).Planning contextIn terms of planning,limited resources and capacities can sometimes be a substantial barrier.These are manifested on several levels.Smaller cities have smaller budgets,there are fewer people available to work on strategic mobility planning and the staff can be less specialized since one person must usually cover several planning and management areas.13.As a result,there can be weaker coordination of planning activities in the region,and measures can be selected ad-hoc with limited consideration of strategic goals.If SUMPs are developed,they are often dependent on the motivation,enthusiasm and skills of only a few decision makers14 and innovative projects must often be outsourced to external consultants15.Lower capacities make it also harder to acquire new knowledge and resources.Planners often lack the time and expertise to apply for funding,especially for EU funds,or to learn from available European knowledge and good practice,which is often too general and from bigger cities.16 It can also be more difficult for them to shape and adapt to 13 http:/sump-network.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/trainings/all_english/PROSPERITY_SUMP_SMC_Resource_pack_EN.pdf p.6;Schutz 2000,p.3,http:/onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/millennium/00130.pdfn;https:/www.suits-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Contextualisation-of-project-cities.pdfp.35 and p.41.“often lack the time to build knowledge and expertise in certain subject areas due to the low personnel capacity.This missing expertise,as well as technical studies or economic studies,must be purchased at great expense from external consultants,what does not always lead to the desired success.”(p.41);Often no one working specifically on urban mobility.The topic is covered by other departments,e.g.for architecture or economics.That is the reason why small towns usually hire external consultancies to develop the SUMP.Source:Dr.Andrius Jarzemskis,Smart Continent,personal communication 23/01/202014 http:/www.epomm.eu/newsletter/v2/eupdate.php?nl=0216&lan=en15 “Mobility planners,especially in smaller cities,usually have a traffic planning background,with a high focus on infrastructure,motorized traffic and planning procedures.In addition,in smaller cities,the mobility departments are very small and often only one person is responsible for mobility planning.Therefore,projects that require expertise in innovative subject areas are often outsourced.”https:/www.suits-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Contextualisation-of-project-cities.pdf p.4416 https:/www.suits-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Contextualisation-of-project-cities.pdf p.41related planning activities at e.g.regional,national or TEN-T level.This guide acknowledges the difficult context in smaller cities and provides concrete advice on how to achieve a good SUMP with limited resources.Once it is in place,a SUMP can make life for planners significantly easier.Having a plan with clear measures and a list of priorities as something to lean against,a planner can use the limited time to focus on more operative tasks.On the other hand,lower institutional complexity can facilitate effective SUMP processes.Smaller cities tend to have fewer challenges with institutional cooperation than bigger cities due to the smaller size of the administration17.Under the right conditions,it can be easier to move ahead and implement measures as fewer people must be involved in the decision-making.This makes it even more important to have a leader,optimally the mayor,who makes sustainable mobility their topic and drives it forward.If such a political champion is in place,together with a committed group of supporters and planners that does not have to be large,they can improve things rather quickly,much faster than in a bigger city where they risk getting entangled in the complex web of city governance.However,the ability to act quickly also has its limits.Smaller cities are often quite dependent on higher planning levels,such as the regional level,especially with regard to public transport and major road infrastructure.They tend to have less planning authorities of their own and less power to influence the surrounding territory and involve neighbouring local authorities than a larger city18.17 https:/www.suits-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Contextualisation-of-project-cities.pdf p.37However,institutional complexity is not always lower in smaller cities.This depends on the institutional setup in each country.In France,for example,the situation is the other way around.In big cities,almost all competences are gathered at the inter-municipality level,which is the same as the planning authority.In smaller cities,inter-municipal planning authorities tend to have less competences,as municipalities tend to keep more competences.In particular regarding road infrastructures(including pathways,cycle lanes,).So that the complexity is higher and the coordination is more difficult.Source:Thomas Durlin,Cerema,personal communication,31/01/2020.18 Urban mobility planning in cities and towns with less than 100.000 inhabitants.Planning challenges and opportunities,Luca Mercatelli-AREA Science Park,1st European Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans,Trieste Sopot,Poland 12-13/6/2014.2 The benefits of SUMP for smaller cities and towns21 Mobility benefitsRemaining attractive places to work and live Smaller cities and towns need to actively shape their future if they want to remain economically prosperous and attractive places to live and work,and a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan can help them to achieve this.There is a general trend in Europe of young people moving to bigger cities to study or find work.19 Many smaller cities outside metropolitan areas struggle to compete in the globalised economy.They have difficulty in creating knowledge-based jobs that,for example,could convince young people to move back to their hometowns following their university studies.This is particularly difficult for smaller cities in Central-Eastern Europe,many of which have lost over a quarter of their population since their countries joined the EU in 2004.20 Many smaller cities are also struggling to attract highly-qualified residents of working-age for existing jobs,including doctors and others needed for basic services.This is also a big problem for global companies located in smaller areas,as many hidden European champions struggle to attract qualified employees despite offering high salaries.Widespread cuts in public services due to tight public budgets and austerity programmes tend to reinforce the decline.At the same time,smaller cities have positive attributes that bigger cities usually lack,such as less noise,cleaner air,a safer and greener environment,and a tight-knit social network.This offers great opportunities,especially to attract young families if smaller cities manage to provide the level of accessibility to jobs and culture that people expect.As a policymaker in a smaller city,you may want to consider helping your city to innovate and become an attractive place to work and live by building on your strengths,such as more walkable and bikeable distances and a pleasant living environment,and combining them with better access to the amenities people want.Bike-friendly,walkable and attractive public 19 PETITE Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Small Cities and Towns p.620 Source:Dr.Andrius Jarzemskis,Smart Continent,personal communication 23/01/2020.spaces have become major selling points to attract and retain residents.Improving the health of citizensEven though green spaces and nature are close by,residents of smaller cities show decreasing levels of daily activity,which negatively affects their health.This is partly due to reliance on the car in towns and smaller cities,which SUMPs can help to address.Preparing for an ageing society/Providing accessibility for allEuropes population is ageing but,due to urbanisation and the emigration of young people to bigger cities,the population of smaller cities is ageing more quickly.In shrinking towns far from metropolitan regions,especially in Central-Eastern Europe,it is mainly older people who remain,so the average age is rising.21 This creates new challenges for cities that need to provide mobility options for a growing number of older people who cannot or do not want to drive a car anymore.SUMP helps to improve access to services(shops,school,health,culture,)and jobs,in particular for non-motorized people.This includes not only older people but everyone who does not own a car,such as children,young adults,low-income households and people who cannot drive due to health reasons.In particular,there are significant problems connected with mobility in smaller cities,mainly for young people.Alternative solutions are needed for them to get to their evening activities,where the car is often the only possibility.As a transport planner in a small city,you may want to consider a SUMP that includes the construction of an attractive cycling network and better public transport options in the evenings and weekends to help address this problem.As a transport planner,you may want to consider using both transport and land-use planning tools to provide better opportunities to move around without a car,to make life easier for almost everyone,even those who 21 Source:Dr.Andrius Jarzemskis,Smart Continent,personal communication 23/01/2020.“From my point of view,especially since Benidorm is a tourist city,SUMP helps to clearly visualise all the transport measures and engage both visitors and citizens,with an informed approach.”-Jesus Alba,Responsible for SUMP development in Benidorm,Spain(pop.68,721)12TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS132.THE BENEFITS OF SUMP FOR SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS2.THE BENEFITS OF SUMP FOR SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSSUMP helps to resolve this by showing a project integrated within a sound strategic framework.This can help get better access to funding:a)helps to have projects in the pipeline to be able to react quickly once funding opportunities arise,b)helps planners to demonstrate the impact of individual measures on key performance indicators,making funding proposals more attractive,c)is a competitive advantage especially when applying for EU funds.23Coordinating actions regionallyMobility planning in smaller cities requires the coordination of policies and services of many stakeholders transport and urban planners,local and regional policy makers,urban and interurban public transport providers within and across different administrative boundaries.24 SUMP is a good vehicle to structure the process and improve cooperation both horizontally and vertically.It helps smaller cities to generate a multi-level and multi-stakeholder dialogue on how to develop the mobility system in the region,resulting in a number of coordinated measures.Making more effective use of limited resources25As a small city administration,developing a SUMP may help you use your limited resources more effectively.Firstly,you can save financial resources.The plan includes packages of measures,prioritised by their likely contribution to the objectives of the city.This helps smaller cities to invest their limited budget into measures that deliver.SUMP moves the focus from building new road infrastructure to a more balanced mix of measures.By combining infrastructure and technical measures with regulatory,promotional and financial measures,mobility goals can be achieved much more efficiently.Choosing the most effective measures is particularly important in smaller cities because individual measures tend to use a larger share of the budget(a new bus station or crossroads entail similar costs in a large and 23 Speech of Herald Ruijters,Director DG MOVE,at CIVITAS Forum 201924 Poly-SUMP Guidelines p.525 Source:Rasmus Sundberg,Trivector,personal communication 20/01/2020a small city,but the budget of a smaller city is always lower).26 Secondly,a SUMP can save time for planners.With a clear strategy backing you as a planner,you can use your limited time to focus on more operative tasks.The plan helps to avoid having to look into the likely usefulness of measures whenever they(re)appear in the local political debate.It also gives guidance to respond to requests by politicians or citizens.Having the“why”,“what”and“when”clearly agreed,planners can switch focus to the actual implementation of measures.This aspect is particularly important for smaller towns where a municipal employee might have many areas of responsibility,not only transport.Boosting resilience through effective knowledge management27 Since the number of personnel focusing on transport is limited in the administration of a small city,the administrations combined knowledge depends on the knowledge and skills of a few people.If one of these officials retires or leaves for another job,important administrative knowledge might be lost.A SUMP captures some of the knowledge and helps new staff to get a clear overview of the current situation and future plans.The implementation can continue without being questioned.26 In a small city,an expensive measure,such as a new bridge for car traffic,can use up a whole years budget,making it impossible to finance for example new bike lanes.This makes it even more important to prioritise the most effective measures.27 Source:Rasmus Sundberg,Trivector,personal communication 20/01/2020have a car.Any family will benefit if their children can walk,cycle or take the bus to school.Many children like to be independent,and their parents avoid being the“taxi service”,driving them to every single hobby and activity.Addressing congestion,safety and liveability issuesDespite their smaller size,towns also face safety problems,liveability issues and noise problems due to growing motorisation.This holds true especially for growing commuter towns or towns along major roads,which have to deal with a high level of through traffic.The deterioration of air quality and growing noise levels that come with population growth and densification are intensely debated in many smaller cities,as they threaten the very advantages that residents value in smaller towns.Commuter towns located close to bigger cities are often booming but face the additional challenge of becoming anonymous residential areas and losing their own character and liveliness.A SUMP can help to develop strategies to address these liveability issues and to work towards an attractive,vibrant town.22 Planning BenefitsAchieving visibility and securing fundingSUMP helps to coordinate at higher political levels.It helps to achieve visibility and to be recognised.Smaller cities are often disadvantaged in the competition for national or EU funding because their voice is considered less important.As a policymaker of a small city,you may be used to having less access to higher-level forums and networking events as well as less capacity to have your voice heard through lobbying.2222 PETITE Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Small Cities and Towns p.6The benefits of SUMP are many.One of the main positive aspects is to plan mobility thinking around all modes of transport and prioritize those actions that generate greater improvement for air quality and sustainability.It is a good tool to highlight the actions needed to achieve real modal shift.”-Laura Llavina,Head of Mobility Services at the Municipality of Granollers,Spain(pop.61,275)“Ginosa has recently received regional funding of 3 million euros thanks to its SUMP strategy”-Lore-dana Modugno,Municipality of Ginosa,Italy(pop.22,226)Image Tivat Eurocities-European Mobility Week152.THE BENEFITS OF SUMP FOR SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS14TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSSustainable Urban Mobility Planning,as defined in the European Commissions Urban Mobility Package,is based on eight guiding principles.28 These principles are equally important for smaller cities as for larger cities,but the way they are put into practice tends to differ due to the more limited resources and different transport system:Plan for sustainable 1 mobility in the“functional urban area”The core aim of sustainable urban mobility planning is to improve accessibility and provide safe,clean and equitable mobility for the entire functional urban area.To achieve this,you should plan for this integrated area of daily flows of people and goods,rather than a municipal administrative area.As a transport planner of a small city,you may want to consider this principle as most traffic flows often cross smaller cities municipal boundaries.Planning based on actual flows of people and goods is an important criterion to generate a relevant and comprehensive plan.The aim of improving accessibility and providing safe,clean and equitable mobility is usually challenging for smaller cities(see above,strong car dependency).It requires cooperation at the functional urban area(FUA)level,e.g.to offer an attractive regional bus network that no municipality could implement on their own.As a policymaker of a small city located in FUA,it is generally not possible to lead a SUMP for the entire area,but it is still possible to give important impulses.This also holds true for smaller cities that are located within the commuting zone of a bigger city.The decisions 28 This section draws strongly on Annex 1 of the Urban Mobility Package(COM(2013)913),but has been adapted by the authors of this guide to the planning realities of smaller cities and towns.mobility policy will contribute to the aims of other sectors(health,environment,economy,social policy,etc.).As part of a SUMP process,joint measures are often implemented with pooled resources from several sectors.For example,a cross-sectoral challenge exists if fewer pupils walk to school,which makes them less focused in class,creating an educational problem,but also causes safety risks from cars dropping off children in front of schools,creating a mobility problem.A common walking campaign carried out together with the police,educational and mobility departments(or units)would tackle the problems each of them is facing.As a planner in a small city,you may be busy with standard tasks and have little time for extra work.Therefore,it is important to organise cross-sectoral cooperation not as an extra burden or a heavy formalised process,but as something that will help you save time and be part of standard routines.This will come easier in smaller cities,where the administration tends to be less specialised and less divided into departmental silos.3 Involve citizens and stakeholdersSustainable urban mobility planning follows a transparent and participatory approach.Citizens and a diverse set of civil society and transport stakeholders are actively involved throughout the planning process to ensure a high level of acceptance and support.This minimises political risks and facilitates implementation.Limited resources in smaller cities can make it difficult to find time for participation activities.This calls for a focused and hands-on approach to participation.In terms of stakeholders,a sound planning dialogue with politicians and other key stakeholders that could block actions should be the priority.Expert committees,institutional and personal contacts are also useful means to establish cooperation based on mutual trust.In terms of citizen participation,smaller cities can use the social ties of their community to reach a wide audience with limited effort.While society is spread across many different niches in bigger cities,towns still hold events which gather all parts of society,such as the annual spring celebration or similar public festivals.In addition,there are often local associations that are very committed to the traditions and to the future of their town.Therefore,as a planner,you might consider using these gatherings and groups to anchor the SUMP process within the local community.4 Assess current and future performanceSustainable urban mobility planning builds on a thorough assessment of the current and future performance of the transport system.It identifies the main problems and opportunities for sustainable mobility,including future trends,and establishes a baseline and alternative scenarios against which progress can be measured.It is essential,especially for smaller cities,to stay focused and make the best use of available resources.Analysis of current and future performance is best achieved by identifying key issues,and then focusing any in-depth analysis on these.Establishing a few core indicators may give a good overview of how sustainable mobility in the town is developing.To reduce the effort,use existing data collected by other organisations as much as possible(public transport operator statistics,national statistics on registered vehicles,police data on road accidents,etc.).There is a risk that a SUMP analysis may focus in great depth on road transport,at the expense of walking and cycling.As active mobility is a crucial pillar of sustainable mobility in any small city or town,it is important to achieve the correct balance of analysis across modes.Nowadays a broad range of tools exists for walking and cycling analysis that helps to quickly identify the barriers and gaps in the network.Traditional data collection methods can provide more than enough information for a good analysis and qualitative scenarios can be just as useful.When faced with limited resources for SUMP development,it is recommended to cover the basics well,and to focus the detailed technical analysis only on those aspects that require more specific attention.5 Define a long-term vision and a clear implementation planSustainable urban mobility planning follows a long-term vision for urban mobility and breaks it down into strategic objectives.It equally needs to plan for short-term implementation of the vision and objectives through 3 The 8 SUMP principles in the context of smaller cities and towns“A Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan is a strategic plan designed to satisfy the mobility needs of people and busi-nesses in cities and their surroundings for a better quality of life.It builds on existing planning practices and takes due consideration of integration,participation,and evaluation principles.”Source:Rupprecht Consult(editor),Guidelines for Developing and Implementing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan,Second Edition,2019,p.9.of the dominating core city or higher political levels often have a strong effect on their accessibility and mobility.For example,when a bigger core city needs to decrease the number of car commuters due to high air pollution,it limits road access and expands public transport.Then surrounding municipalities develop new housing areas without public transport access,resulting in congested roads,long commutes and pollution.But good cooperation with the dominant urban centre and the regional level can help to achieve good accessibility and sustainable mobility.It can help to identify common problems that require cooperation(e.g.congested roads for commuters),and solutions which will benefit all municipalities(e.g.better commuter train or bus connections,park&ride facilities or bicycle highways).2 Cooperate across institutional boundariesSustainable urban mobility planning is characterised by a high level of cooperation.This includes cooperation with a wide range of departments relevant to mobility(especially transport,land use,environment,economic development,social policy,health,safety,and energy),exchange with higher levels of government and coordination with transport providers.Just as much as regional cooperation(see principle 1),a close exchange within the local administration is also important for smaller cities,as it helps to achieve synergies and avoid inconsistent or competing policies by different sectors.Positive relationships with colleagues from other sectors are important to even get the SUMP process started.As financial and technical resources are limited,deciding to develop a mobility plan requires a genuine commitment.The decision to prioritise this will be easier if you make it clear that a 16TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS173.THE 8 SUMP PRINCIPLES IN THE CONTEXT OF SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS3.THE 8 SUMP PRINCIPLES IN THE CONTEXT OF SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSmeasure packages,specifying their timing,budget and responsibilities.Goal-oriented planning is a key element of SUMP that is equally important for smaller and bigger cities.Analyses of successful cities show that what they share is a broad political agreement on a mobility vision which they follow consistently.29 In cities such as Copenhagen,Freiburg,Ghent,Groningen,Malm,Strasbourg,Vienna or Vitoria Gasteiz,sustainable mobility is no longer an issue for certain political parties or planning departments as it is the norm across the political spectrum and planning sectors.While it takes persistence and dedication to establish a broad agreement,the actual definition of a vision can be a quick exercise in smaller cities.If prepared well,it can happen for example in a condensed workshop format with the most involved colleagues,politicians and key stakeholders.Develop all transport 6 modes in an integrated mannerOverall,it is a challenge for all cities to implement measures that deliver the vision.Once specific projects are discussed,it can be difficult to assert the importance of long-term objectives against gut feelings and short-term political gains,resulting in the implementation of measures that are not always in line with the agreed objectives.While many smaller cities are good at agreeing on the vision and objectives at a high-level,it can often be a struggle to turn them into actions.30 A major focus of the SUMP process should therefore be the identification and planning of effective measures,even if some of the measures are not immediately popular.31 To achieve genuine change with a SUMP after its adoption,the difficult discussions of funding,completion dates and responsibilities may be unavoidable.This usually happens in a series of meetings gathering all those who should play a role in financing,designing and 29 Tom Rye,CIVITAS Prosperity project,Experience and good practice in Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning in other European countries,9th May 2019.30 Assessment based on many years of working with smaller Swedish cities.Source:Rasmus Sundberg,Trivector,personal communication,21/01/2020.31 For example,traffic calming and parking management.For more details on recommended measures for smaller cities and towns see chapter 5.implementing measures at the end of which timing,budget and clear responsibilities for the next 2-3 years can be agreed and politically adopted,as well as the framework for delivering on the longer term goals.Sustainable urban mobility planning fosters integrated development of all relevant transport modes while supporting a shift towards sustainable mobility.It uses integrated sets of regulatory,promotional,financial,technical and infrastructural measures to achieve its vision and objectives.The measures usually cover collective mobility(traditional public transport as well as new sharing services),active mobility(walking and cycling),multimodality,road traffic and parking,and urban logistics,focusing on improving road safety,equitable accessibility,the liveability of public spaces,and air and noise pollution in all areas.Smart allocation of different types of measure is useful in any city as it makes actions more effective and increases their acceptability.It is beneficial,especially for cities with tight budgets,to think beyond building new infrastructure.It usually provides better value-for-money to start with improvements of the existing infrastructure,combined with regulatory and promotional measures,as well as efficiency measures that decrease operational costs.Promoting sustainable mobility can feel like a daunting task in many smaller cities where most travel is done by car and public transport is weak.The choice of measures depends on the specific situation of each city,but it is usually an important part of the solution to improve connections by car to other modes of transport.To create better conditions for walking and cycling,planners may address parking management and speed reduction schemes as crucial measures,for example starting around schools,in the town centres and in some residential areas.For more advanced cities,circulation plans can be a powerful tool to shift towards sustainable mobility.For travel between towns,a better regional organisation of the bus system,including the integration of fares and schedules,often makes a big difference.Restructuring the network around public transport hubs with feeder services also has great potential.This can be combined with regional cycle paths leading to the hubs,to exploit the current trend towards electric bicycles,Park Ride and Bike Ride facilities,and on-demand buses that serve rural areas.For towns within metropolitan regions,a better connection should be targeted to the public transport systems of nearby bigger cities.Towns can get active in other ways beyond transport measures.High-speed internet and teleworking options can contribute to improved job accessibility without the need to travel;while the support of public services,schools,health care,entertainment venues and creative spaces can attract new residents and revitalize towns.For more details on recommended measures for smaller cities and towns see chapter 5.7 Arrange for monitoring and evaluationThe implementation of a SUMP and its mobility measures is monitored and evaluated closely.General progress towards strategic objectives and targets is assessed regularly based on clear indicators.Systematic monitoring of individual measures allows to adapt to changing circumstances and optimise future actions.This is probably the principle that is omitted first when time and resources are limited.But even with the tightest of budgets,it pays off to think about monitoring,as it lets you improve actions and thus save money in the future.Evaluation can also be important to ensure continued public support for measures.Planners in smaller cities are especially recommended to limit themselves to a small number of progress indicators that do not require unrealistic amounts of data collection.It is more useful to regularly get a rough status update than to conduct a very detailed analysis every 20 years.To make data collection manageable,cooperation with other organisations is useful.Together,different municipal units,public transport operators,regional authorities,the national statistics office,and sometimes local universities can present a good dataset that helps to avoid unrealistic amounts of data collection.A pragmatic approach is recommended also for the monitoring of measures.The impact of every action can not be measured,but it pays off to monitor the most critical and controversial measures.This will help to increase public and political support,and to convince critics with data when the public debate gets emotional.8 Assure qualityA Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan is a key document for the development of an urban area.To ensure high quality in all mobility planning activities,mechanisms should be in place to review the quality of the plan and to manage risks during its implementation.These tasks can be delegated to external quality reviewers or another government institution(e.g.at the regional or national level),while they can be facilitated by using tools like the SUMP Self-Assessment.The delicate issue of carsAny change creates concern.A key message to increase support by car drivers and politicians can be that SUMP is not against the car,but in favour of a more effective use of cars,as well as providing real options for those who do not wish to use a car.While a private car driving door-to-door with a single occupant is indeed an ineffective use of energy and road space,cars are an important part of a multimodal mobility system.They bring people to public transport hubs(first-mile),allow for common journeys to work or school(carpooling),can be shared to fulfil specific needs such as transporting heavy items or getting to remote locations for recreation(car sharing)and will of course remain the primary transport mode for many rural areas.18TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS194.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSThe SUMP cycle has established itself as the main visualisation of a planning process following the SUMP principles.It provides a clear structure of four phases and twelve steps that planners can follow.This is,of course,an idealised representation of a complex planning process.Steps often run in parallel,the order of tasks may be adapted to specific needs,or a step may be partially omitted because results are available from another planning exercise.Nonetheless,the SUMP cycle provides useful guidance in structuring and keeping track of the process.In a nutshell,the SUMP process includes the following key tasks:A political decision initiates the SUMP process and provides overall guidance and leadership;Effective working structures are set up that bring key stakeholders on board and allow for effective cooperation within the functional urban area;A sound analysis identifies the main problems and opportunities and informs decision making;A shared vision,objectives and targets set the strategic direction;Integrated measure packages are defined that can deliver the objectives and targets;Measure packages are operationalised,including responsibilities and financing;Based on all previous decisions,a SUMP is adopted that combines a long-term vision and clear implementation plan;Overall measure coordination and regular monitoring ensure an efficient implementation;Systematic evaluation of the implementation provides the basis for the next planning cycle.The general structure of the SUMP cycle is equally applicable to smaller cities and towns as to larger urban areas.All twelve steps are important.However,the method by which the steps are conducted and the balance between them usually differs.Smaller cities tend to:Require less time for plan development.One year including plan approval is common,whereas larger cities usually need considerably more time.32 The perception that it takes a lot of time to develop a SUMP is often mentioned as a barrier by smaller cities.33 This is why we provide simplified methods in each of the twelve steps,to help you develop a good SUMP with limited time and effort.Place emphasis on the operational phase(second half of the cycle),and less on the strategic phase(first half).34 Since the mobility system tends to be less complex and there are fewer sectoral strategies to coordinate and integrate,the development of the vision and objectives is often completed in a timely manner.What is more challenging is the selection and implementation of effective measures that can achieve the objectives.35 Therefore,we have put a particular emphasis on this step by including an entire chapter with recommended measures for smaller cities and towns(chapter 5).Focus on the regional level.Coordination with higher political levels is very important for smaller cities,which are often dependent on them.Attractive public transport,for example,is hard to realise without good coordination at the regional level.We suggest raising the profile of a SUMP by developing it at the level of the functional urban area right from the start.If this is not possible,exchange and involvement of regional planning should take place in at least the areas with the highest coordination needs.32 6 to 12 months for rural mobility plans and 1 to 2 years for medium-sized cities is common in France according to Thomas Durlin,Cerema.1 year,including gaining political approval,is common in Sweden according to Rasmus Sundberg,Trivector.33 Martina Hertel,Difu(2018):German Municipalities and Mobility Concepts:Transport Development Plans(VEP)and Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans(SUMP),CIVITAS Forum Conference 2018,Ume.34 http:/www.german-sustainable-mobility.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/GPSM_Recommendations-for-Mobility-Master-Planning_english_final.pdf 35 Source:Rasmus Sundberg,Trivector,personal communication,21/01/202041 PHASE 1:Preparation and analysisThe initial milestone for developing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan should be the decision to improve the current mobility situation and a strong conviction that change towards greater sustainability is needed.It should be clear from the outset that urban transport is not being terminated in itself but should contribute to higher goals,such as enhanced quality of life and well-being.The decision to prepare a SUMP always means a commitment to the general objectives:improving accessibility for all,regardless of income and social status;enhancing quality of life and the attractiveness of the urban environment;improving road safety and public health;reducing air and noise pollution,greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption;economic viability,social equity and environmental quality.Depending on the national and local context,a legal obligation from the national level,an official decision by a local political body(such as the local council),or a commitment by the local administration can be the driving force.Several strategies can help to reach a decision for developing a SUMP:Find a framework for SUMPA project or measure can be the trigger to start the SUMP process.With the decision for a major infrastructure project(e.g.a new bypass road or railway connection)comes the necessity to embed it into a wider planning framework.During the process of developing a SUMP,earlier decisions e.g.,for major infrastructure projects should be reassessed.In the SUMP process these projects should be to validated according to the strategic SUMP objectives.This could lead to an adjustment of the original projects decision,and can possibly lead to modifications of the original project design and/or flanking measures.A SUMP can help to maximise the positive impact of such projects(that are often driven by actors outside the town),providing complementary 010203040506070809101112Set upworking structuresAnalyse mobility situationManage implementationMonitor,adapt and communicateReview and learn lessonsSet targets and indicatorsAgree actions and responsibilitiesPrepare for adoption and financingSelect measure packages with stakeholdersBuild and jointly assess scenariosDevelop vision and strategy with stakeholdersDetermine planning frameworkMilestone:Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan adoptedPreparation&analysisStrategy developmentMeasure planningImplementation&monitoringSUStAInABle URBAn MoBIlIty PlAnnIngMilestone:Vision,objectives and targets agreedMilestone:Measure implementation evaluatedMilestone:Decision to preparea SUMPMilestone:Analysis of problems and opportunities concludedWhat are our resources?What is our planning context?What are our main problemsand opportunities?What are our options for the future?What kind of city do we want?How will we determine success?What concretely,will we do?What will it take andwho will do what?Are we ready to go?How can we manage well?How are we doing?What have we learned?Rupprecht Consult 2019Figure 1:The 12 Steps of Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning(2nd Edition)A decision makers overviewMilestone:Decision to preparea SUMP4 Sustainable urban mobility planning steps in smaller cities and towns 20TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS214.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSmeasures,long-term targets and a participative approach.An infrastructure project that affects the entire region may even provide the impetus to launch a SUMP at the level of the functional urban area together with neighbouring municipalities.Relate to current problems and show how a SUMP would help to solve themA useful approach is to show the challenges and problems the city will face if nothing changes,to stress the benefits generated by a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan,and to highlight the fact that voters will reward good results.To communicate urgency,it can be effective to simulate the negative consequences of business-as-usual development(e.g.in terms of future congestion and resulting economic losses,or in terms of indicators such as road fatalities or years of life lost due to air pollution)and to present these to politicians with the help of maps and figures.When communicating the benefits,it is often helpful to make a link to current high-priority issues in your city-such as air quality,traffic,road safety,affordability of housing or economic growth-by explaining how a SUMP can help to resolve them.Turn your weaknesses into strengthsIf the city has a limited budget and decision-makers voice the concern that there are insufficient resources for a SUMP,point to other cities that have achieved major improvements with a modest investment.Many of the most successful cities did not initiate expensive projects,but rather clever decisions and reorganisation.For example,making the best of their limited budget,using their expertise to be creative within the existing city structure36.Consider small-scale measures for quick winsPolitical commitment can be challenging to achieve as the full benefits of a SUMP only become visible after a time span longer than the electoral cycle.It may be helpful to highlight the option of including smaller-scale measures with high visibility in the SUMP.These can generate public support in the short-term and trigger the first decision to develop a SUMP.For example,the temporary transformation of public spaces with“light and cheap”solutions can help people visualise the possible positive changes(e.g.reallocation of street space,a temporary bike path separated by flower planters or parklets instead of parking spaces).36 Tom Rye,CIVITAS prosperity presentation,“Experience and good practice in Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning in other European countries”,9th May 2019Get inspired by other citiesMany cities in Europe(and globally)have already faced this decision stage and plenty of them then took the decision to develop their first SUMP.It can be a great argument to point to these cities that have successfully carried out Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning.Eltis the urban mobility observatory and European city networks provide an excellent basis to learn and get inspired by the stories of others.411 Step 1:Set up working structuresAt the beginning of the Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning process,it is necessary to analyse the available capacities and resources to set up effective working structures.To achieve a truly integrated planning process,the core team responsible for SUMP development should be well connected to all relevant areas of the administration.Dedicated activities should be conducted from the start to ensure political ownership and stakeholder and citizen engagement should be planned early on.The first step aims at achieving both effective working structures and broad support for the process.The activities of this and the next step are closely linked and sometimes run in parallel.For example,the geographic scope needs to be defined early on so that it is considered when setting up the working and participation structures.Aims Get a realistic and clear picture of the strengths and weaknesses of current planning practice;Secure the necessary range of skills for managing and driving the process;Establish efficient and interdisciplinary working structures for an effective planning process;Create a sound basis for durable cooperation between all stakeholder groups;Develop a transparent planning culture that is based on the regular involvement of citizens.TasksEvaluate planning practice,capacities and resources Carry out an honest self-assessment of current transport planning activities.The outcome does not necessarily have to be made public.It is Methods for assessment of planning practicesInternal meeting and review with SUMP Self-AssessmentA self-assessment can be as simple as a group of people who are involved in the planning process sitting down together to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of current processes and how to improve them.To guide the discussion,it is recommended to use the online SUMP Self-Assessment available on Eltis.Following the completion of the SUMP Self-Assessment,a results page will show how well your planning activities already fulfill the principles of a SUMP and will provide tailored advice for further improvement.By having all meeting participants complete the questions on their own,and then discuss the similarities and differences in responses as a group,highly relevant insights can be gained.Link to SUMP Self-Assessment:www.sump-assessment.euPeer reviewAnother way of assessing the planning environment for a SUMP is by means of a peer review.This means that one or more experienced planners,or other experts in the field,are invited to review the situation in your city.The peer reviewer can consider the quality of the current planning process and organisational se-tup,also benchmarking them against the best in class.They can contribute a useful external perspective and feedback on how to best organise the development of a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan.Source:Lasse Brand,Rupprecht Consult;Tom Rye,Edinburgh Napier University Budget requirements for SUMP developmentThe costs of developing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan differ widely depending on the scope,availability of existing plans and studies,and external assistance required.The costliest elements are data gathering and transport modelling,so it is important to be clear about how much data and what level of complexity of modelling is required in your case before seeking approval for a budget.Smaller cities often decide not to use a transport model due to the high costs and limited complexity of decisions in their context,and to focus on measures that have proven successful in similar contexts instead(see Activity 4.1 for guidance on when to use a model).Other aspects that tend to be expensive,but very useful,are a comprehensive participation process as well as professional design and communication.recommended to use the online SUMP Self-Assessment(see below)to identify what already works well in your city,and what could be improved when developing the SUMP;Assess skills available within the leading organisation(s)and among stakeholders.To overcome a lack of skills,several smaller cities could rely on a common mobility planning knowledge centre.In the long run,they could even establish a combined planning authority that plans for a wider region,such as the West Midlands Combined Authority in the UK,or the Public Works Department in the Ministry of Transport,Communications and Works in Cyprus;Define the required budget for the SUMP development process and ensure political approval.To overcome a lack of resources,smaller cities belonging to the same region could pool their resources to conduct selected planning steps together,for example,a common diagnosis(step 3);Assess the likely budgetary framework for measure implementation.Consider local,regional,national,EU and external funding opportunities.This will probably still be a rough estimate at this stage,but it will help you to stay realistic.Create a multidisciplinary SUMP core team Appoint a project coordinator with responsibility,mandate and resources to facilitate and drive the planning process forward.22TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS234.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS Also appoint a more senior project director,e.g.a department head or mayor,who provides the necessary high-level support to ensure cooperation-and who promotes the SUMP process on a steering level if needed.Set up a multidisciplinary core team that is regularly involved throughout the entire development of the SUMP.The team should include members with transport and urban planning skills,but also with knowledge of related planning areas,such as economic,social and environmental policies.To achieve an integrated planning process,the outcome of which is mainstreamed into other sectors,the team should include members from several departments or units,not only transport planners.In smaller cities,the team usually consists of only a few people and,in towns,the project coordinator might even do most of the work alone.Discuss the results of your self-assessment of planning practice,or ideally conduct it together as a team,to develop a common understanding of sustainable urban mobility.Emphasise linkages between different transport modes as well as between urban structures(density,functions,socio-economic patterns,ecosystems)and mobility.Promote the idea of Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning to colleagues beyond the core team,for example by organising lunch talks or an excursion to a model city for sustainable mobility(where also politicians could be invited).When dealing with colleagues who have very traditional,car-centric views,often because they learned their profession long ago,it can be useful to invite external experts with authority,e.g.from a renowned transport institute.Set up SUMP steering group Identify all relevant stakeholders as well as their objectives,power,capacity and planning resources(e.g.using a stakeholder mapping tool).Meet key politicians and practitioners personally at an early stage to discuss their views and involvement.Strive for a broad coalition that supports your SUMP,optimally including not only the governing party but also the opposition.Set up a permanent steering group consisting of important politicians and other key stakeholders.This group provides guidance and input on strategic decisions throughout the entire planning process.Strive to include the main transport providers and colleagues from the district and regional level in the steering group.Smaller cities often lack planning authority over important parts of their transport infrastructure(e.g.bigger roads)or the public transport system.37 Therefore,it is particularly important that tasks,for which e.g.road administrations,districts,counties or transport 37 Le plan de dplacements simplifi(PDS)-Planifier les dplacements dans une ville Moyenne,p.11associations are responsible,will be jointly discussed as part of the SUMP.38 Find ways to cooperate well with powerful stakeholders outside the steering group,such as the head of the chamber of commerce,CEOs of large local companies,or the editor-in-chief of the local newspaper.These key people often have a strong political reputation and could block the process if they feel left out.Involve relevant politicians early on,e.g.the transport committee of the local council.To convince policymakers of new ideas:Use examples of successful smaller cities,show that it is something which also concerns them,and consider doing a study trip to such a city.38 http:/www.german-sustainable-mobility.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/GPSM_Recommendations-for-Mobility-Master-Planning_english_final.pdf p.44 Provide a good story,such as that having a SUMP is part of being a modern city.Focus your communication on results,not on methodology or activities.Plan citizen involvement Develop a communication and engagement strategy and timeline,including an overall strategy for public relations activities(such as media involvement).Identify the planning steps in which citizens will be involved,and the participation methods suitable for each of them.The most common methods t are public discussions or citizen forums.But also look for creative and fun ways to engage people(e.g.having children paint footprints on the ground marking safe routes to school).Use the influence and social ties of your community.While the population in bigger cities is divided into When and how to involve the public?Citizens can be involved in many stages of the planning process,but quality is more effective than quantity.It is more useful when done well in one or two steps than trying to engage the public too often and thereby risking participation fatigue.The following steps and methods often work well:Identify important problems(step 3):Online map-based survey,walkability inspection Co-create common vision(step 5):Future search workshop or citizen forum Validate measures and actions(step 7-8):Focus group meeting,feedback booths in public spaces Get feedback on draft SUMP and celebrate(step 9):Feedback form on city website,press conference after adoption Inform and engage during implementation(step 11):Neighbourhood information event,posters at implementation site,satisfaction surveysWhat to do in case of scarce resources for participation activities?Prioritise an effective planning dialogue with politicians and other key stakeholders.These powerful actors can block your actions later if they feel left out,so it is crucial to engage them effectively.Use working groups,expert committees and personal contacts to establish a cooperation based on mutual trust.Use existing information on peoples opinions.Information from existing citizen surveys and opinion polls is a valuable input for the planning process.Especially if you do not manage to have dedicated participation events.Involve associations that represent a diversity of people.To ensure that all parts of society get heard,it can be more efficient to involve citizen and community groups rather than individual residents,as it takes considerable effort to reach a representative number of people.Citizen feedback on a public draft is the minimum.If citizens were not involved before,they have to at least have the possibility to comment on the final SUMP draft.Make the draft easily accessible and inform residents via local media,although note that without an effective voice during the preparation of a SUMP,there may not be a sufficient sense of ownership at this stage to mobilise sufficient feedback on the draft SUMPSource:Inspired by:Rasmus Sundberg,Trivector,personal communication 23/01/2020Organisational changeSUMP often requires changes in the planning culture of local authorities.However,this can be difficult,as it is associated with uncertainties.People typically prefer to stick to established working routines and may fear a higher workload,especially if change is imposed from the top.Working with local authorities,the CIVITAS SUITS project has developed an 8-step organizational change process for the transport and planning departments of smaller cities.It focuses on creating buy-in by those that have to implement the changes to daily working routines.In summary,the process,which aligns well with the SUMP cycle,is to:1.Form of a powerful coalition within the local authority.2.Jointly develop a vision for change.3.Identify the correct change agent as a driver responsible for making change happen.4.Communicate the vision widely and involve colleagues in defining specific goals and activities to achieve the vision.5.Let the change happen in small increments and keep up the momentum in the long term.6.Celebrate quick wins and keep reinforcing the vision.7.Learn from the process and the results-adapt goals and activities if necessary.8.Anchor the changes and the change process in corporate culture,e.g.written guidelines,new forms of communication or planning inside the local authority.For details see:wwwsuits-projecteu Authors:Sebastian Spundflasch,Technische Universitt Ilmenau;Ann-Marie Nienaber&Andree Woodcock,both Coventry University24TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS254.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSmany different niches and interests with their own clubs and associations,in towns there sometimes still exist forums that unite all parts of society.This could for example be the association that organises the annual city festival,spring celebration,or other main public festivals.For a SUMP it is important to involve these stakeholder hubs to anchor the process in the town community.Involve not only associations that have mobility as their main topic but also those from related areas.In some cities,there are strong nature protection groups,local heritage clubs or similar associations that traditionally do not get involved in transport issues but can become important supporters of your plans.Actively work with media and the public,provide information on the vision and benefits of SUMP for society,and for every single citizen.Proactively contradict assumptions,for example,that the overall aim is that citizens cannot drive their car anymore.Consider branding your planning process to communicate its core idea,create consistent visibility and help citizens and stakeholders to recognise and remember it.Branding may include giving it a catchy title,developing a visual identity,theme and colour scheme and designing a dedicated logo.In all participation activities,it is crucial to be transparent and to communicate how the results are used.412 Step 2:Determine the planning frameworkHand in hand with the setup of working structures,the planning framework needs to be determined to tailor the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan development to the local situation.This includes the definition of the geographic scope,which ideally should address the functional urban area.Other important aspects are to follow legal planning requirements and to link with planning processes of related fields.The results of all previous activities are then summarised into an agreed timeline and work plan,which should be politically approved to ensure reliability for involved actors.If a lack of capacity has been previously identified,appropriate arrangements need to be made to get external support for SUMP development.Aims Align to relevant regional,national and European legal requirements;Define the geographic scope of your plan,usually covering the functional urban area of actual mobility patterns(e.g.travel-to-work area);Achieve integration of SUMP development with relevant sectoral policies at the local and regional level;Develop a tailored timeline and work plan that fit the local context;Cover skill gaps with external experts,if needed,but maintain coordination and develop internal expertise.TasksDefine the planning area Identify,document and assess existing legal regulations and requirements on how to develop a SUMP in your country,relevant regional and national funding criteria,and higher-level plans and strategies that might influence your SUMP.For example,the plans of a National Road Authority for new or enlarged roads could work against the objectives of a SUMP by encouraging more car driving into the city.What are Citizens and Stakeholders?Citizens refers to all people living and/or working in the functional urban area for which your SUMP is being prepared.In this document,it is used largely interchangeably with the terms people,residents and the public.Stakeholders are all individuals,groups or organisations affected by and/or being able to affect the SUMP.While citizens are a part of this,in this document the term stakeholders mainly refers to institutional stakeholders,such as public authorities,political parties,citizen and community groups,business organisations,transport operators and research institutions.Key stakeholders are usually more closely involved in the SUMP process than the general public.Therefore it needs to be ensured that the interests of all affected parts of society,including typically underrepresented hard to reach groups,are properly represented amongst the involved stakeholder groups.Functional urban areas in EU Member StatesThe OECD and the European Commission have jointly developed a methodology to define functional urban areas(FUAs)in a consistent way across countries.Using population density and travel-to-work flows as key information,a FUA consists of a densely inhabited city and of a surrounding area(commuting zone)whose labour market is highly integrated with the city.The urban core consists of a population cluster with a density of at least 1,500 inhabitants per km.A municipality is part of the urban core if at least 50%of its population lives in the cluster.The hinterland is identified as the worker catchment area of the urban labour market,outside the densely inhabited core.All municipalities having at least 15%of their employed residents working in a certain urban core are defined to be part of the urban hinterland.The ultimate aim of the OECD-EU approach to functional urban areas is to create a harmonised definition of cities and their areas of influence for international comparisons as well as for policy analysis on topics related to urban development.The OECD offers profiles of the functional urban areas of each EU country.They include a map of the country with all functional urban areas(also available as a free shapefile),a list of the functional urban areas by population size and the population living in those functional urban areas.To access the profiles,please go to www.oecd.org and search for functional urban area.Source:OECD 2019There are various types of functional urban areas with different needs for SUMP development.The Poly-SUMP Methodology offers guidance for polycentric regions with several municipalities or cities that are closely dependent on each other.It gives recommendations on how to initiate or develop regional transport cooperation in such complex areas.Based on the terminology of the Poly-SUMP guide,polycentric regions feature a capital city with a relatively low population(fewer than 200,000 in a larger region or fewer than 100,000 inhabitants in a smaller region)and a number of intermediate poles,smaller than the capital city,but greater than 5,000 inhabitants.The Poly-SUMP MethodologyHow to develop a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan for a polycentric regionGuidelinesCo-funded by the Intelligent Energy EuropeProgramme of the European Union Analyse transport patterns and administrative boundaries to identify your functional urban area(i.e.travel-to-work area).Then define the geographic scope of the SUMP and negotiate overall responsibility for the plan.If possible,a SUMP should cover this integrated mobility area,which in most cases goes beyond the administrative boundaries of a municipality.This means that several smaller cities develop a plan together.Sometimes it is developed by a regional authority,but more often by cities that form an inter-municipal planning organisation or just cooperate ad-hoc.This inter-municipal SUMP,which selects the overall goals,priorities and larger measures,often works as an umbrella for local mobility plans.They can be developed by the different municipalities to focus on questions of specific relevance to them,for example,to define local measures for their city centre.39 If developing a full SUMP with several cities turns out to be too complicated,the different cities can also 39 http:/www.german-sustainable-mobility.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/GPSM_Recommendations-for-Mobility-Master-Planning_english_final.pdf p.4626TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS274.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSchoose to develop their individual plans.However,they should still strive to coordinate their measures as much as possible with each other,for example in a regular roundtable or working group,establishing common goals.In some countries,certain mobility aspects are mandatorily planned at the regional level.Often this concerns public transport and larger roads.In this case,local SUMPs still define the overall vision for the entire mobility system but need to be closely coordinated with regional sectoral plans so that the goals of the different plans align.In terms of measures,SUMPs then often focus more on the remaining mobility aspects,as the sectoral plans already define detailed measures for their area.Link with other planning processes Identify local sectoral strategies for transport and mobility(e.g.strategies for different transport modes),as well as local plans from other policy domains that may have an impact on urban mobility(e.g.land use,energy,environment,economic development,social inclusion,health and safety).Also identify relevant plans of local transport operators,service providers and other municipalities in the planning area.Review whether the goals of the plans support or discourage sustainable urban mobility objectives.For example,a land-use policy that makes use of brownfield land is supportive,while one that promotes urban sprawl without a strong underlying transport framework conflicts with the principles.While SUMPs are rarely mandatory-spatial plans usually are-which makes it particularly important to contribute to the mobility perspective.40 Overall,a SUMP should be integrated with the sustainable urban development strategies that set the overall vision and objectives for the city to coordinate and mediate between the different sectoral objectives and plans.41 Ensure regular communication and exchange between relevant authorities(and within authorities,e.g.through regular meetings between transport and land-use planners).Consider including land-use planners in your core team or steering group,assigning them a clear role in the planning process to create ownership.Agree on the timeline and work plan Take sufficient time to prepare the planning process thoroughly.The time needed to achieve a political decision,set up working structures and define the planning framework varies considerably between cities.Define a timeframe for plan development.One year,including plan approval,is common in smaller cities.Mobility analysis:2 to 6 months Strategy development(vision,objectives and targets):1 to 3 months40 Source:Dr.Andrius Jarzemskis,Smart Continent,personal communication 23/01/2020.41 https:/urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/urbanstrategies/Measure planning(measures,action and responsibilities):2 to 6 months Plan adoption:few weeks to half a year Plan update:after 5 to 10 years Take into consideration potentially challenging periods(e.g.elections or budget planning periods).In the months before an election,it may be difficult to move ahead quickly,so the beginning of a mayors mandate can be a good time to start the process.Calculate some quiet working periods to make the general planning more flexible and to avoid severe delays.In addition,remember to include the time needed for communication as well as stakeholder and citizen involvement.Draft an overall work plan for the SUMP process indicating all necessary milestones.Agree on management procedures and tasks with the SUMP core team and steering group.Ensure that everyone who is supposed to contribute to the process gets approval and a sufficient time allocation from their line managers.Then get a formal political decision to proceed with the planning process.Consider getting external support Decide which tasks require external support,as a)a lack of skills in your organisation would reduce the quality or prolong the process considerably,and b)they cannot be efficiently covered by internal capacity building(or the recruitment of new staff).Due to limited internal capacity,external support is often crucial in smaller cities.There is a tendency to outsource the development of the entire plan,but this is not recommended,as the resulting plan risks being too external and not sufficiently accepted by municipal planners.42 Instead involve external specialists for specific tasks(see examples of suitable tasks in box below),maintain overall coordination and make sure that the combined internal knowledge of the town,its transport system and mobility patterns is used in the process.43 When delegating project management to a consultant,keep the overall coordination within your planning authority.For all delegated tasks,always foresee sufficient time and resources for quality control by your organisation.Integrate capacity-building activities within the terms of reference whenever possible,so that your internal staff can 42 BUMP lessons learned,p.32,http:/www.bump-mobility.eu/Download.ashx?url=/media/93314/lessons-learnt-while-coaching-cities.pdf 43 BUMP project,2016:Guidelines for the definition of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans:Developing Sustainable UrbanMobility Plans in medium and small cities.Lessons learnt while coaching cities within the framework of the BUMP Project.p.7Examples of tasks requiring external supportTasksDetailsPreparation,organisation and facilitation of stakeholder and citizen events,documentation and analysis of discussion results.The administrative efforts required to carry out effective participation processes should not be underestimated.The review of comments is usually done manually,which requires considerable time.Engaging a neutral facilitator can also help to avoid(old)conflicts and support a group to collaborate in a constructive atmosphere.Communication with the publicCommunications activities,such as writing attractive news items for print and online use,designing public reports(e.g.the mobility strategy and the SUMP),facilitating social media channels(which can receive high volumes of comments)and taking professional photos during events.Analysis of the mobility situation,including data collectionThis could be either the entire analysis or specific technical subtasks(e.g.analysis of the quality of cycling infrastructure,collection of traffic count data,walkability analysis,execution of a household survey).Box 1:Lahti,Finland:Integration of land-use and mobility planningLahti has developed an integrated strategic process,Lahti direction,for the combined planning of land use and mobility.The aim of the new approach,which was first implemented in 2019,is to build a sustainable city together with citizens,stakeholders and decision makers.The process is ongoing and cyclical,the strategy will be updated every four years,or each council term.It includes the city plan,the SUMP,the environmental programme and the service network programme.The integrated approach has proven to work well so far.It enhances the cooperation between the land use and mobility planners and improves the engagement of citizens in the mobility planning process.Author:Anna Huttunen,City of Lahti,collected by UBCImage:Lassi Hkkinen,City of LahtiBest Practice Example28TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS294.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSgain the respective competencies for the next planning process.Decide whether tasks can be tendered as a bundle(normally tasks that are closely related,e.g.citizen engagement and communication)or if they require very specific skills and need to be tendered separately(e.g.data collection or,even more specifically,a household survey or an analysis of the quality of cycling infrastructure).Tender and contract external services for the selected tasks.Use clear terms of reference that describe the tasks as precisely as possible,including a timeline and specific outputs for each task.Use suitable criteria for the selection of offers,which need to be specified in the terms of reference.In addition to the price,you should give appropriate weighting to content criteria(e.g.quality of the described concept and methods,and the expertise of proposed personnel).Experience has shown that quality pays off,and unrealistically low offers often lead to low-quality results or follow-up costs for cities.413 Step 3:Analyse the mobility situationThe last step of the preparation and analysis phase is to assess the mobility situation of your city.This is a major milestone that provides the basis for rational and transparent strategy development.A good mobility analysis is crucial in helping to define appropriate policies,and provides the necessary baseline against which progress can be measured.Before conducting the analysis,information and data sources need to be identified and cooperation should be established with data owners.The aim is to conduct a focused and manageable analysis that includes all relevant transport modes and identifies the main problems and opportunities in the field of urban mobility.Aims Identify information needs in terms of political priorities and probable objectives and get a good overview of the available data.Achieve a good set of information by combining data available in different parts of your organisation,in other organisations,and(if needed)by collecting new data.Analyse the current status of all relevant transport modes and sustainability aspects to identify and prioritise key issues that need to be addressed by your SUMP.TasksIdentify information needs Define the information needed for a status assessment in your city.An analysis table(see toolbox below)can provide guidance for this.Focus on the general aims of sustainable urban mobility and the political priorities that led to the decision to develop a SUMP.For example,if a political priority is to improve road safety,then data on fatalities is required.Usually,a status analysis needs information on the status and trends of:all transport modes available in your city(e.g.walking,cycling,public transport,vehicle sharing,private motorised transport,multimodality,freight);relevant sustainable mobility aspects for your city(e.g.air pollution,traffic noise,road safety,the liveability of public spaces,equitable accessibility to services,employment and education).Check existing planning documents for analyses relevant to sustainable urban mobility.Such documents may include sectoral mobility strategies and plans(e.g.on walking,cycling,public transport,road transport,parking,freight)as well as plans and documents from other relevant policy areas(e.g.land use,energy,environment,economic development,social inclusion,health and safety),from local transport operators and other municipalities.Wherever useful,the planning process should build on the results of existing plans and strategies.Collect a good data set Perform a data audit to identify what information is available.Get an overview of sources,identify available data and assess its quality and accessibility.Since resources for data collection are very limited,your own unit or department will often lack data on many aspects of the baseline.Therefore,it is particularly useful to also map the data that other parts of your authority and other organisations can provide(e.g.neighbouring municipalities,the police,public transport operators,regional authorities,universities,national ministries).Collaborate with other organisations,for example to access public transport operator statistics,police data on road accidents or regional traffic surveys.Agree on the process for exchanging data so that all partners benefit from a common set of information(e.g.secure data-sharing platform that respects confidentiality and legal requirements).Retrieve the available data,synthesise its contents and identify data gaps for your main mobility issues.Collect additional data to fill important gaps.Data can be collected by a variety of means.For example,trends in the number of pedestrians can be determined by carrying out manual counts annually at key points in the city,by installing counting machines or by conducting a household survey.The choice of method depends on the resources available,Box 2:Koprivnica,Croatia:Early external support for the SUMP teamIn 2014,the city of Koprivnica decided to develop a SUMP.As part of the first stage of the SUMP development process,the city researched which steps it would need to take and resources required to produce such a document.Based on this research,the Koprivnica SUMP team ascertained that there werent enough resources and that therefore there was a need to involve external mobility experts.The SUMP team searched within Croatia for mobility experts with enough experience to guide the team through the development process.With the help of these experts,the city conducted a status analysis and a baseline traffic survey.Author:Nebojsa Kalanj,collected by ICLEIImage:City of KoprivnicaFor details see:SUMP Annex p16Best Practice ExampleSelection of useful data collection methods for smaller cities and towns:To measure traffic flows:Manual traffic counts at key locations(involving student workers or volunteers,such as retired people,can help save resources);To analyse the network:Comparison of travel times with different modes between major destinations,using online navigation tools(e.g.town centre to main housing areas,to biggest nearby employers,and to bigger nearby cities);To assess infrastructure quality:Site visits at key locations(criteria catalogues for this available online),can also be organised as workshops with groups of citizens to understand the user perspective;To understand opinions on a specific topic:Short surveys or interviews in the street,data from journals,blogs,social media,the local newspaper;To identify problem areas:Online maps where residents can locate negative and positive areas for specific transport modes(many online tools available,but the analysis of responses takes time);To get an in-depth status:Household surveys(important representative data,but expensive,usually done in bigger intervals such as every 5 years;to save costs they can be organised regionally or face-to-face interviews can be partially replaced with phone interviews).Box 3:Spatial Analysis of main travel destinationsExample of a spatial analysis of main travel destinations in a town(workplaces,administrations,cultural and sports facilities,schools and kindergartens,health facilities,etc.).Such accessibility maps help to detect underserved areas.Source:Cerema,Plan de mobilit rurale,juin 2016,p.27Best Practice Example30TOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSTOPIC GUIDE:SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS314.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNS4.SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY PLANNING STEPS IN SMALLER CITIES AND TOWNSthe size of the city and the level of reliability required.In addition,consideration should be given to how data will be used data collection can be costly and time consuming,and it is important to tailor this data collection to subsequent analysis activities in order to best use available resources.When faced with these limited resources,it is also preferable to use basic data collection methods that are relatively easy to implement.44 Analyse the current mobility situation Analyse your data in a goal-oriented manner.Use spatial analysis methods,for example by mapping 44 Detailed list of different data collection methods see pp.108 https:/www.suits-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Gap-Analysis-on-data-collection-and-analysis-methodologies.pdfFigure 2:Example of how an analysis table can be used to define the status of the transport system(baseline analysis)(adapted from Sundberg,R.,2018.SUMPs-Up Manual on the integration of measures and measure packages-Start,p.10.)FUNCTIONS/TRANSPORT MODESMODAL SHAREQUALITY OF INFRASTRUCTURESAFETY AND LIVEABILITYENVIRONMENT AND HEALTHEQUITABLE ACCESSIBILITYSTATUS OF MEASURE IMPLEMENTATIONMAIN RECOMMEN-DATIONSWalking12%PoorMany accidents on road crossings near schoolsLess and less pupils walking to schoolSome areas lack walkable access to parks and sports facilitiesLow activity.New walk to school campaign.Traffic safety measures are neededCycling7%MediumCyclists often feel unsafe,attractive cycle paths in parksLow use gives small benefitsFew cycling lanes along main roadsEfforts to mapping the bicycle network in progress.Low budget for new measures.Increase city administrations budget for cycling measuresPublic transport(bus,tram,metro,train,etc.)16%GoodSome bus stops need repair,feel unsafe in the eveningsNew bus fleet has been installed,decreased impact on air qualityReduced fare for unemployed,but infrequent buses to poor outskirtsHigh activity,public transport strategy planned.Progress in right direction,keep onVehicle sharing(car,bicycle,e-scooter,etc.)0.5%MediumE-scooters blocking footpathsLow use gives small benefitsSharing offers only available in the centreNo activity,purely privately driven fieldProper regulation and knowledge neededPrivate motorised transport(car,motorcycle,etc.)64.5%GoodMany accidents with people that walk or cycleHigh use of cars strongly impacts air quality and noise levelsRoad networks covers all parts of the city wellHigh activity,new bypass is under construction.Introduce measures to reduce car traffic in city centre when bypass is completedMultimodality(train station,interchanges)n/aGoodNew train station is attractive.Unreliable changes in off-hours incentivise car useMain bus station is outside walking distance from main train station.No Park&Ride offers in outskirts.Lack of secure bike parking for e-bikes at main interchanges.Low activityInvolve location of interchanges and P R and B R in public transport strategyFreightn/aGoodHeavy truck traffic in centre causes safety riskTrucks in centre cause air and noise pollutionAll industrial areas well connectedLow activityDevelop strategy to divert heavy goods traffic from centreANALYSISCar is the dominant transport modeWalking and cycling infrastructure needs improvementTraffic safety needs to
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Trend Report2022Urban Mobility Electrification of transport Integrating mobility services Network video technology in mobility Developing new business models Connected and autonomous vehiclesIn association withSmartCitiesWorld Trend Reports are a series of annual reports that are designed to highlight best practice from city leaders and administrations and showcase innovative technologies from across the five key verticals that make up our coverage of the sector.With the publication of these reports over time,we will be able to track the progress that cities are making and how their priorities change.Here,were assessing the current trends in urban mobility in which progress is set to determine the path forward to more sustainable and smarter transportation.Introduction Moving people and goods from A to B is and always has been one of the most significant challenges that cities face.The shape of our cities is so informed by our roads that if we were to begin again,the urban environment would be scarcely recognisable.In this report,SmartCitiesWorld is breaking down the challenge facing cities around mobility to assess the trends that are moving urban transport development forwards,considering the travel experience,the need for more sustainable services and business models,and the future of connectivity and autonomy across urban transport networks.Against a backdrop of pandemic recovery where traffic levels bounced back to normal but left shared modes of transport still recovering ridership,sustainability is key.In this report we focus on electrification as a basis for progressing the sustainability agenda,assessing the progress that cities and their transportation authorities have made to date.Electrification is only part of this story,however;theres also assessment of the state of integrated shared mobility services,the idea that they can provide genuine alternatives to personally-owned car journeys,and the impact that could have on citizens behavioural change to reduce congestion and improve mobility.As part of this shift,mobility users need to feel that theyre safe and that they can rely on new modes of travel;connected and autonomous mobility is a crucial part of that equation for the future,and the report focuses on some of the groundwork thats being laid to ensure a more connected and autonomous future can be achieved.By Carol Schweiger,Schweiger Consulting With contributions from:Andreas Gransson,global marketing manager,and Andrea Sorri,business development director,smart cities,Axis Communications Luke Antoniou,senior editor,SmartCitiesW2|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|3The MBTAs bus electrification goal is to have full bus electrification by 2040.This goal consists of battery electric buses(BEBs)with depot charging,parallel electric and hybrid bus procurements and a final hybrid purchase target of 2027.Table 1 shows the progression of electrification throughout the period between 2020 and 2040.Decarbonisation at the MBTA does not only involve electrifying buses and rebuilding facilities to handle electric vehicles,but also includes assessing various alternatives for electrifying the commuter rail system.Electrification of the commuter rail system will involve replacing diesel locomotives,building new and updating existing maintenance facilities,and implementing new and updated power supply,electric catenary,and power systems.Given the momentum in addressing climate change in Massachusetts,various groups have been interested in accelerating the electrification of the MBTA commuter rail system.Fortunately,this interest encouraged the adoption of specific amendments to climate change legislation.On 14 April 2022,the Massachusetts Senate passed S.2819:An Act Driving Climate Policy Forward.While transportation decarbonisation is a significant portion of this bill,one amendment specifically addresses the electrification of the commuter rail system:#13 Commuter Rail Electrification,which requires all commuter rail procurements to be electric by 2031 and requires the MBTA to establish short-term,medium-term,and long-term plans for each commuter rail line and how they fit into the states emissions reductions goals.While this legislation is ensuring decarbonisation of public transport,an amendment that was rejected would greatly enhance the electrification of other municipal fleets:#88 Fleet Electrification,which would have set interim targets and required all public fleets including state,municipal,and school bus fleets to be electric by 2035.Also,it would have required that the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources design an incentive programme to encourage the transition of private fleets to electric vehicles.So while this legislation showed a commitment to actions that would address climate change by electrifying public transport,it falls short by not requiring electrification of municipal fleets.This exemplifies how critical it is for Electrification of transport While electrification and the shift toward alternate fuels in the transport industry are being touted as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,we recognise that the use of alternate fuels may not completely address other issues that significantly impact mobility.The picture that many transport professionals paint regarding electrification is that if more personal vehicles are electrified,that alone will not solve our most serious transport problems including congestion.However,electrification and the use of alternate fuels can make a positive impact on the environment.This,in conjunction with an increase in the use of shared mobility,can improve life in cities.Also,if electrification and the use of alternate fuels are extended to vehicle fleets,such as those operated by public transport and other municipal agencies,the result can be even better for urban mobility.In terms of electrifying public transport fleets,there are several exemplary programmes across the US.One example is the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authoritys(MBTAs)Bus Electrification Strategy.The overall goals of this strategy are to“centre rider benefits through focus on equity,service,reliability,and sustainability”.This includes converting the bus fleet to zero emissions 4|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|5technology in support of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts carbon reduction goals,and modernising all bus maintenance facilities to improve conditions for the MBTA workforce to support their efforts to keep MBTA services competitive for passengers.As part of that process,they will transition to a more uniform bus fleet replaced on a predictable,annual timetable in support of fleet reliability for the passengers,plus allow for an increase in fleet size to position the MBTAs bus network redesign to meet the needs of growing ridership.This strategy involves not only converting the bus fleet to zero emissions technology,but also replacing and upgrading facilities to ensure that the following needs are met:Equity operating zero emissions buses in transit critical communities and on routes with high ridership Fleet lining up facility replacements with the retirement of specialty bus fleets(for example legacy diesel,trolleybus,compressed natural gas CNG)Systemwide capacity replacing facilities that could be moved to a new location first,to open up swing space.Number of:2022202720302040Maintenance facilities9999Facility capable of housing all electric fleet1359Buses1,1001,223Percentage of electric buses3000%Table 1be two to three times more efficient than internal combustion engines.”In the US,the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Council(HFCBC)is a coalition of public transit agencies,manufacturers,and suppliers working together to advance the hydrogen fuel cell electric bus economy and its applications in the public transit sector.Formed in January 2022,12 public transport agencies are members of the HFCBC along with energy companies and other industry partners.In other parts of the world,hydrogen fuel cell buses are being assessed and operated by public transport authorities.For example,CaetanoBus,which is the first bus company in Europe to use Toyotas fuel cell technology,has sold buses to Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona(TMB),which is the main public transport operator in Barcelona,Spain;and moBiel GmbH,a public transport company in Bielefeld,Germany.As of the end of 2021,there are 85 hydrogen-powered buses,70 owned by the city of Tokyo and 15 owned by the private sector.Hydrogen-powered buses will be the norm in Tokyo as the city intends to equip more than 300 buses with hydrogen fuel cells by 2030.In South Korea,a total of 624 hydrogen buses are to be put on the roads of the port cities of Busan and Ulsan and the province of South Gyeongsang by 2025 as a replacement for buses with combustion engines.policy and legislation to go hand-in-hand with technological improvements to provide the greatest impact on the environment.In Massachusetts,Governor Baker issued an Executive Order in 2021 called“Leading By Example,”which set goals for state agencies to reduce their greenhouse gases associated with the burning of on-site fossil fuels at buildings and in vehicles by:20 per cent in 2025 35 per cent in 2030 60 per cent in 2040 95 per cent in 2050.Further,Massachusetts has the overall reduction goals of 50 per cent by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2050.The MBTAs overall electrification strategies are meant to coincide with these goals as well as those mentioned in S2819.Looking more broadly at the use of other alternate fuels,public transport decarbonisation can include the use of hydrogen fuel in addition to electrification.As the US Department of Energy explained in a February 2022 article:“In battery-only electric vehicles,electricity charges the battery directly.In hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles,hydrogen is stored as a fuel in a tank.The hydrogen stores energy,flows into a fuel cell,reacts with oxygen from the air,and creates electricity that powers the electric motor.Instead of a combustion engine,hydrogen-powered vehicles have hydrogen fuel cells,which convert energy to electricity more efficiently.Fuel cells convert a fuels chemical energy to electrical energy and can 6|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|7Actionable insights Combine electrification strategy with modal shift and infrastructure considerations to gain a fuller picture of their local transportation landscape over the next 5-10 years Explore battery electric and hydrogen options for fleet renewal dependent on existing infrastructure,total cost of ownership over the long term could be significantly higher or lower for one over the other Tie electrification into city and/or state climate action and emissions reduction plans which may help in securing further funding for fleet renewalFleet renewal is set to play a significant role in delivering cleaner transportation to the masses.Electrification will be a costly endeavour for many and those pursuing it should look to:3.Transport operator openness and data sharing:the extent to which transport operators share data and make APIs available to third parties.This includes whether data and APIs are made“open”(freely available to use,redistribute and alter).4.Policy,regulation and legislation:the extent to which key policies,regulations and laws to support MaaS are in place.These may be at a city level or a national level.5.Citizen familiarity and willingness:the extent to which citizen lifestyles and behaviour align with a MaaS model of transport provision.This includes travel behaviour and use of MaaS-related technologies.Focusing on DARTs initial approach,the agency set out to develop partnerships with regional MSPs including bikeshare,carshare,regional taxi services,rental car companies,Uber,Lyft,scootershare operators,and any other MSPs in the greater DART area.The goal of these partnerships is to provide travellers with information on the MSPs services that can be used to connect them with DART services,and eventually exchange real-time and static data that will be used in the MaaS platform to provide travellers with itineraries that include these MSPs,and allow travellers to use GoPass to pay for an entire trip(rather than paying for each mobility service in an itinerary separately).The partnerships will be necessary to provide a true one-stop shop for all Dallas regional travellers.Second,as part of the partnership development,DART identified the data sharing and fare payment integration that will be necessary to include the regional MSPs in the MaaS platform.In this step,once partnerships with MSPs are finalised,a number of technology-related activities can be pursued.This includes a regional trip planner incorporating data and information from MSPs and DART.This itinerary planner is considered“level 1”in the MaaS topology devised by Jana Sochor,Hans Arby and MariAnne Karlsson.The next technological steps also include payment integration among DART and the regional MSPs,which will perhaps be the most challenging activity from a technical perspective.The Federal Transit Administration(FTA)has documented the challenges associated with multimodal fare integration in the Mobility Payment Integration:State-of-the Practice Scan.Adding payment integration to a multimodal trip planner is considered“level 2”in the MaaS topology mentioned above.From here,data exchange and integration supporting not only multimodal trip planning but also payment may be challenging.Fortunately,there are considerable efforts to standardise the data formats used in a MaaS system,as well as MaaS elements Integrating mobility services and developing new business models While there have been numerous attempts at improving mobility in urban areas prior to the introduction of mobility-as-a-service(MaaS)and mobility-on-demand(MoD)concepts,it is only recently that improving urban mobility is recognised as the only way to facilitate key life activities such as education,healthcare,jobs,shopping and entertainment.The way that many urban areas have evolved has been hindering these activities for residents and travellers increased traffic congestion,lack of integrated shared mobility options,increased pollution,and lack of urban space.Fortunately,in the last eight to 10 years,urban mobility improvements are beginning to be made to facilitate better access to these activities.According to SAE JA3163,MaaS is defined as“a concept envisioning integrated mobility where travellers can access multiple transportation modes over a single digital interface.MaaS primarily focuses on passenger mobility allowing travellers to seamlessly plan,book,and/or pay for travel on a pay-as-you-go and/or subscription basis”.While several US transit agencies are moving toward MaaS,no US agency truly offers it.MaaS has been implemented in a small number of agencies and cities outside of the US,but several of these are pilot deployments.While MaaS has been touted since its conception in 2014 as an ideal mobility solution that will lead to travellers giving up their personal automobiles in urban areas and more generally will change travel behaviour,neither of these premises have been proven absolutely yet.8|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|9In the last eight to 10 years,urban mobility improvements are beginning to be made“”However,it is advantageous for transport agencies to consider moving toward MaaS to provide travellers in and around urban areas a one-stop shop for their mobility.With many public transport agencies current suite of technology and mobility services,these agencies are well on their way toward MaaS,but need a strategy and roadmap to identify the process and steps necessary to not only deploy a MaaS platform,but to:firstly,develop the necessary partnerships with other regional mobility service providers(MSPs);secondly,identify the necessary data sharing and fare payment integration between regional MSPs and public transport agencies;and finally,identify the enabling technology and technology integration that will be needed to drive a MaaS platform.Further detail and an example roadmap from Dallas Area Rapid Transit(DART)can be found in the further reading section.According to The Ws of MaaS paper in IATSS Research,there should be five key aspects in determining an agencys desire to move toward MaaS:1.Transport services and infrastructure:how prepared the current transport system is for MaaS.This includes the variety of modes available,the density of services,the frequency of services and the integration of services.2.ICT infrastructure:penetration of MaaS-enabling technologies.This includes internet access and smart ticketing infrastructure.10|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|11such as booking/reservations application programming interfaces(APIs).Interoperability for Mobility,Data Models,and API from the MaaS Alliance explains that“exchange of data occurring between different parties in the MaaS ecosystem provides benefit to all parties.For example,local transportation authorities and infrastructure providers can use the exchanged data,when standardised,to evaluate and analyse the usage made of their infrastructure,the stress put upon them by travellers to maintain,improve,or develop them.Similarly,standardised data can be used to cross compare offers from the different providers to build up relevant and insightful data with reduced effort.One example is the TOMP-API(Transport Operator to MaaS Provider Application Programming Interface)is a standardised and technical interface between MaaS providers and transport operators.The diagram on the TOMP-APIs GitHub page depicts the concept of having a standard-based application programming interface from transport operators to or from MaaS providers.It allows all participating companies to communicate about planning,booking,execution,support,general information and payments of multimodal,end-user specific trips.Using the TOMP-API enhances the interoperability between parties in the MaaS ecosystem.Finally,DART is continuing to identify the enabling technology and technology integration that will be needed to drive a MaaS platform.There are numerous enabling technologies the agency is exploring:Existing DART technologies including the CAD/AVL system;fixed-route and paratransit scheduling software;real-time traveller information(for example,next bus arrives at stop N in x minutes);communications technology(for example,radio and cellular)Blockchain technology,which can provide a privacy preserved,transparent and trustless architecture for mobility services Intelligent sensor technology can be effective for sensing and collecting real time mobility data from MSPs other than MTTA Artificial intelligence(AI)-based algorithms can be developed to provide autonomous decisions on the basis of the data collected from all MSPs as well as future predictions about different mobility related services and entities,such as the conditions of roads,traffic,and streetlights.Additionally,data centric AI algorithms can be used by organisations for customer centric target marketing Intelligent geospatial technologies that MTTA already provides accurate information for the tracking and tracing of vehicles and travellers.These technologies,along with scheduling software,can also facilitate alternative routes management in case of emergencies and disasters Information processing techniques are applied to data from MSPs so that predictive information and pattern analysis can help them in making decisions.The data sources can include smartphones,data from social networks,vehicle sensors,global positioning system(GPS)and location applications,traffic light sensors and other road locations,public agencies,connected vehicles,and camera feeds.The technology integration will be dependent on the partnerships developed between DART and the regional MSPs.One critical factor will be whether or not DART deploys only one MaaS platform or allows competitive third-party platforms.Another critical consideration in the development of MaaS is to ensure equity,accessibility,inclusion and diversity every traveller should have the ability to use a MaaS platform.This requires that DART explore unbanked customers and customers who do not have smartphones against accessibility and inclsusivity needs,benefits for commuters which can complicate multimodal payments,integration with legacy technologies,and regulations,policies and standards for payment acceptance.DART recently developed the 2045 Transit System Plan and its plans for MaaS and MoD are integral parts of that plan.The plan highlights that DART is preparing for future mobility by focusing on opportunities under five themes and a set of associated goals.The MaaS goal and action are defined in the Mobility and Innovation theme while MoD goals and actions are described in the Service and Expansion theme.Another aspect of improving urban mobility can be seen in public transport providing more integrated services.Typically,public transport services are loosely integrated for example,buses may arrive at a subway station loosely based on the subway schedule).Only recently have some agencies explored or initiated“commingled”services.Currently,commingling is defined as merging demand-responsive transport(DRT)or paratransit with other mobility on demand services,such as microtransit,into one service.One reason for considering commingling is to reduce the typically high cost of paratransit services(for example,in the US,the Americans with Disabilities Act ADA requires paratransit services that are complementary to fixed-route services).Using new scheduling and dispatching software,commingling is now possible and being deployed in a variety of locations,including Lincoln,Nebraska in the US.StarTran,the public transport agency in Lincoln,uses the same fleet of vehicles and drivers to provide both paratransit and microtransit services.Another example of commingling services is being provided by Citibus in Lubbock,Texas.It is advantageous for transport agencies to consider moving toward MaaS to provide travellers in and around urban areas a one-stop shop for their mobility“”In terms of new business models to improve urban mobility,transport services are making a concerted effort to connect the first-and last-mile of a trip with other mobility services.Technology is facilitating this service integration.One of the best examples of this service integration is Brightline train service which operates from Miami(Florida)to Ft Lauderdale to West Palm Beach and eventually to Orlando.When users purchase a train ticket,they have the capability to reserve a private ride,shared ride or bikeshare(called BrightBike in the West Palm Beach area),or to board a walk-up shuttle to/from a Brightline station.They can also purchase a parking pass for any of the Brightline station parking facilities.Finally,Brightline for Business provides a corporate travel programme for employers something that is often contemplated as a substitute for having an employee use a corporate car.A MaaS app powers Brightlines integrated mobility.Part of its strategy is to have a positive impact on mobility through the following goals:Addressing climate change through using clean biodiesel for lower emissions and removing three million cars from roads each year Making the facilities and trip greener through using solar power in stations and providing electric charging in their parking facilities Implementing mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental impact Ensuring inclusivity and equity Focusing on health and safety.Connected and automated vehicles12|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|13Getting the right people involved is almost always a critical success factor in overcoming exclusion and promoting a fairer experience for all.“”Educate all citizen groups on new types of service particularly those that are digitally enabled Keep equity and accessibility front of mind in rolling out new services are they affordable and accessible for those in the community that really need them?Do not deploy technology for technologys sake are new services actually providing a solution to a challenge,both for the authority and/or the customer?Integrated mobility services and more demand-responsive transport will be critical to encouraging modal shift on the scale required to effectively ease congestion in our cities.Providing services is only part of the solution,however authorities must also ensure they:Actionable insightsCase StudyBy Andrea Sorri,director,business development smart cities;Andreas Gransson,global marketing manager,Axis CommunicationsImproving urban mobility with the latest network video technologyIn the world of urban data collection,the reputation of video has skyrocketed in recent years as public service authorities have recognised the value that network cameras can bring in terms of insight,monitoring and decision making.This is especially true of the mobility market,where gaining a holistic view of operations and road networks can help authorities to address wider policy objectives,such as developing safer and more sustainable roads.Video is just one half of this equation,however the other is the analytics capabilities that sit alongside the raw data.As the Internet of Things has grown in the last decade,cameras have become smarter,those capabilities can now increasingly be found at the edge,with AI-enabled data analysis happening in-situ on the camera itself,without having to be transferred to a central server.These advancements in connected cameras have brought numerous benefits to transport and traffic authorities,improving support on real-time traffic management and helping to streamline traffic safety and enforcement across cities to ensure road user and pedestrian safety.Whats more,todays cameras can serve numerous purposes thanks to both their connectivity and the AI software built into them,helping authorities to save money by ruling out the need for multiple deployments.For example,todays camera hardware could be used to monitor red light violations and collect mobility statistics without the need to install more than one device.Monitoring and surveillance of road networks and associated infrastructure,whether its intersections or rest stops,is critical to maintaining and improving citizen safety on the street.The cameras and video sensors that enable this to be done effectively and 14|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|15efficiently must now be part of the IoT,capable of capturing and analysing data at the edge regardless of lighting or weather conditions.The nature of safety itself is also changing it is no longer only keeping road users and pedestrians safe from traffic incidents,speeding cars and accidents at crossings;it is ensuring that the environment in which these activities are happening is futureproofed,that air quality is good and CO2 emissions are kept to a minimum.The effective roll out of connected cameras into urban road networks today should actively contribute to citizen liveability,creating a built environment that is greener,safer and simpler to travel through,with improved traffic flow and monitoring contributing to all three factors.Solving mobility challenges for Metropolitan City of MilanIt was with these challenges in mind that,beginning in early 2021,Axis worked together with system integrator,Safety21,on a project with Metropolitan City of Milan.The project aimed to address three challenges through one rollout:environmental monitoring and security,citizen safety,and monitoring road safety.The project had four primary objectives that the city wanted to achieve:To gather information on road users driving behaviour and their respect for road laws To promote a different cultural and social attitude about environmental issues to protect and further promote safety among vulnerable communities To develop a single system for monitoring,safety and traffic To promote a more positive perception of public authorities deploying sensor and camera technologies and solutions.At the centre of all these main objectives was the desire to deliver improved safety for citizens from a roads traffic and environmental perspective.The integrated road safety project also leveraged the principles of public-private partnerships in a unique way to ensure that the local authority would be able to undertake the project Safety21 required no investment from the public authority,taking on the full potential risk of investment in the rollout themselves.In this scenario,Safety21 only takes returns on investment from the managed service it provides to the city.“The biggest problem for a smart city project is how you finance it and this includes after delivery because many cities across Case StudyCase StudyThe effective roll out of connected cameras into urban road networks today should actively contribute to citizen liveability,creating a built environment that is greener,safer and simpler to travel through.“”Europe do not have the budget to maintain the infrastructure,”said Gianluca Longo,founder and CEO of Safety21.“In a private public partnership you can link it to returns on investment in this case from the violation fines so you always have a flow of money that can be directed to the maintenance of the infrastructure.”The key to a project like this is maintaining a good flow of the right information.From an IT architectural perspective,the project utilised an IoT system backed by cloud services.The system is based on Safety21s Titan platform a cloud platform that facilitated the connectivity of the different monitoring services the city wished to employ.The monitoring services the city wanted to roll out covered a wide range of functions,including:Monitoring rest stationsThe municipality wanted to roll out monitoring at roadside rest stations to help prevent illegal dumping,which is a common problem.The cameras survey these areas 24/7 and allow the traffic control centre to capture the license plates of offenders.The monitoring of these areas can also be useful in response to incidents to enable traffic control to send out a team to clear debris from the road faster and prevent any further incidents,as well as to keep a close eye on vehicles being repaired in the rest stops.Instant speed monitoringFor Metropolitan City of Milan,monitoring speeding was not only about fining drivers for breaking speed limits,but mitigating speeding in the first instance to encourage behavioural change.Rather than only deploying speed cameras,the city introduced a three-step warning system for speeding drivers,made up of different signage and information to prevent them speeding.Monitoring pedestrian crossings not controlled by traffic lightsImproving safety at non-traffic-light-regulated crossings was one of the city authoritys biggest priorities.To address the issue,they rolled out extra signage and lighting at crossings,which combined with Axis cameras,enabled crossings to detect the presence of pedestrians waiting to cross.This would then trigger the signs and the lights to make drivers more aware of the crossing and the waiting pedestrians.Red traffic light violation monitoringIn busy urban areas,traffic enforcement at junctions and intersections are critical to maintaining pedestrian safety,which is why Milan also wanted to integrate red light violation detection as part of its safety system.The system uses Axis cameras to detect red light infringements in real time,providing authorities with accurate information and verifiable evidence in the event of an accident.16|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|17Traffic detectionDetecting traffic and congestion was a key part of the citys plan to keep roads safe.Cameras in this sense is used to collect data and maintain data flow,capturing information about what is happening on the roads and connecting traffic data to CO2 data to enable a drive towards more sustainable road networks.Average speed monitoringMilan wanted to use average speed monitoring as a means of ensuring road capacity and occupancy was as efficient as possible.Reducing and avoiding congestion was the primary goal for the city.Once it reaches a point where congestion rarely happens,or only happens to a certain degree in peak hours,the city wanted to achieve a more consistent average speed in non-peak hours to ensure that the road network was operating as efficiently as possible,thereby helping to ease congestion further at peak times.Axis technology had a part to play in each of these use cases,either as a core component of the set up or as a companion sensor to help add value for the municipality in terms of the information and data they could draw on in the integrated system.The open and scalable nature of the technology means that cities can integrate traffic monitoring and control into a single platform with more ease,without the risk of creating siloes or vendor lock-in.“In my view Axis technology is industry standard but also the way in which it can adapt to any environment is key to smart city deployments,”says Longo.This also makes it possible for municipalities to overhaul and streamline their sanctions procedures to protect citizens and law enforcement.Everything is collected in the cloud through the same platform so the local police can analyse video,determine the violation and issue the correct punitive measures.From the edge to the end,the procedure is managed from the same platform.This is also important because not all municipalities have the same law enforcement organisation in place,so openness is key to being able to share critical information between parties.An integrated system like this also makes managing image and video evidence detection,extraction and storage simpler and more secure.In achieving this,municipalities could then also apply artificial intelligence analytics capabilities on the collected data to surface further insights for example,correlations between traffic,speeding and average speed statistics and their resulting impacts on traffic or pedestrian incidents.The system has been in place in Milan less than two years at time of writing and continues to grow.Longo explains that despite some delays due to Covid,the system is performing 200 per cent better than expected.Using open-source technology like Axis will allow Metropolitan City of Milan to expand the system without concerns over interoperability or siloes.As of May 2022,the system consists of more than 130 devices,enabling a broader and more accurate view to Milans public authorities of the state of operations on the roads,while improving its record on road and pedestrian safety alongside pushing forward with sustainability goals.Going forward,Longo believes the private public partnership approach will be key to helping cities to realise their green agendas,especially in the area of smart and shared mobility programmes where payment platforms and other elements have to be managed.He is also keen to demonstrate that the private public partnership approach isnt just for large cities and has recently developed a model for a smaller Italian city that also incorporates Axis technology,which can now be taken to the broader market.But he highlights the work with Milan as being“revolutionary”for the smart cities movement in general because it is sustainable in terms of finance as well as the technology used:“It is a real-life example of working with a public administration to bring about major change.”Case StudyCase StudyRead more about how Axis technology can support smart city initiatives:https:/ Conversion(Phase 2 Active Status)the full conversion of the existing Skyway Superstructure and eight stations into an elevated roadway for autonomous vehicles.The current bi-directional tracks run approximately 2.5 miles in each direction.Launching from the Jacksonville Regional Transportation Centre at LaVilla(JRTC),the U2C elevated sections will stretch to four additional stations on the Downtown Northbank,and across the St Johns River over the Acosta Bridge to three stations on the Downtown Southbank.Phase II also includes the street level connection to Phase I,the Bay Street Innovation Corridor.Neighbourhood Extensions(Phase 3)advance the design of the Bay Street Innovation Corridor.A Transit Concepts and Alternatives Review(TCAR)planning exercise was completed in FY 2020 that identified alternatives for each of the proposed Skyway corridor extensions including:Southwest Corridor:Brooklyn and Riverside host large office towers just over the edge of Downtown and melt into a blend of historic homes and eclectic shops and restaurants Redevelopment in the northern portion of the corridor is bringing more places to live,work,shop and dine.Planned autonomous vehicles will help to connect future residents to areas within the corridor as well as invite them to explore nearby neighborhoods,reachable by the U2C programme Southbank Corridor:the Southbank portion of the corridor boasts medical,office and residential towers.The historic San Marco neighborhood has charming homes and small businesses18|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|19 North Corridor:the historic Springfield area was once served by streetcars along Main Street and has undergone a renaissance with new and renovated homes and shops.The areas residents and business owners are highly engaged in the community and host neighbourhood festivals and events.According to an RFI from JTA,the initial phases will include the development and/or expansion of the supervisory system and route technology necessary to support an autonomous vehicle network as well as deployment of vehicles and station modifications or new at grade stops.All programme components will also include both physical and cybersecurity best practices.Why is this unique programme an example of using technology to improve urban mobility?It is stated well in an early description of this programme as it was envisioned in 2017 as well as it is described in 2022 by JTA:“Live,Work,Shop,Eat,and Play.Our goal is to provide compact,walkable,pedestrian-oriented,mixed-use communities centered around access to JTAs multi-modal transit options.This makes it possible to live a lower-stress life without complete dependence on a car for mobility.The ability to inter-connect micro-mobility and transit options to your desired destinations within Jacksonville improves our health,economy and environment.”Transit-oriented development(TOD)is a significant part of the U2C programme to meet the overall goal of creating vibrant,livable,sustainable communities in the greater Jacksonville urban area.JTA highlights that“TOD provides compact,walkable,pedestrian-oriented,mixed-use communities centered around transit stations.This makes it possible“JTA has made a significant investment in automated transit (and now has an Automation and Innovation Division)through its Ultimate Urban Circulator Programme”Connected and automated vehiclesDiscussion on the future of mobility is typically incomplete without reference to the connected and autonomous services that many are banking on to make the future safer,cleaner and more efficient.CAVs are already deep into pilot trials around the world to monitor the safety and efficiency of these technologies ahead of full rollout or at least the introduction of policy and regulation that will enable full rollout.One example of these projects is being run by the Jacksonville Transportation Authority(JTA)an independent agency of the State of Florida governed by a seven-member board of directors.JTA plans,designs and builds roads and bridges,but it also operates Jacksonvilles public bus service,downtown automated Skyway and paratransit service.JTA has made a significant investment in automated transit(and now has an Automation and Innovation Division)through its Ultimate Urban Circulator Programme(U2C),a first-of-its kind programme to transform downtown Jacksonville through modernisation and expansion of its downtown circulator(Automated Skyway Express)to accommodate automated vehicles and to extend service to nearby neighbourhoods.The U2C autonomous transportation network will utilise and leverage multiple existing federal investments,including the elevated Skyway Automated People Mover(APM)infrastructure and street-level roads through the urban core.The existing Skyway is a 2.5-mile system,with eight stations,an operations and maintenance(O&M)centre and crosses the St Johns River on the Acosta Bridge.The envisioned system will convert the existing system and expand to approximately 10 miles by combining the at-grade and elevated infrastructure.This will also include the deployment of autonomous vehicles with modern stations and provide more frequent service with improved access for all customers.There will be an approximately 10-mile system that will be developed in the following phases,according to JTA resources:Bay Street Innovation Corridor(Phase 1 Active Status)The first phase of the U2C me is the Bay Street Innovation Corridor(BSIC).This route is the East Corridor and extends beginning at the current terminal of the Skyways Central Station,east to the Sports/Entertainment District/TIAA Bank Field.The federally funded project will be the initial phase of the UC programme and will introduce autonomous vehicles along a key transportation corridor in Downtown Jacksonville.From a technical perspective,JTA identified 20 key features and capabilities of the autonomous vehicles that will be used for the U2C.These features are called the“Golden 20”.Their development was required for two reasons:firstly,there are no existing“standard”transit AV requirements in Jacksonville;and secondly,JTA has specific requirements due to the environment in Jacksonville where these vehicles will operate.The requirements are as follows:1.Full Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA)compliance2.Buy America/Buy American compliance3.Cybersecurity4.Remote route programming with low latency5.National Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA)approval to operate on public road6.V2I and V2X capabilities(DSRC&5G)7.Traverse slope of 12 degrees w/full passenger load(sustained acceleration/deceleration)8.Operate bi-directionally up to 35mph9.12 hours of battery life10.Operate at speeds of 15mph within 1 foot of stationary object and operate at speeds of 15mph within 3 feet of moving object11.May operate during inclement weather(rain,fog,wind,and extreme heat)12.Internal cab environment control with rapid cool capability and sustained temperature with full passenger load13.Ability to be towed;push/pull and steer AV manually or towed via another AV14.Crash worthy up to 35mph15.Ability for fast charge/opportunity charging16.Ability to regulate passenger capacity17.System for recording/storing video for at least 30 days(black box)18.Emergency button to contact authority/agency control centre19.Remote command and control operations of vehicles with low latency20.Complete vehicle monitoring system,including health monitoring.In terms of connected vehicles and their impact on urban mobility,results from another trial by the Tampa(Florida)Hillsborough Expressway Authoritys(THEA)Connected Vehicle(CV)Pilot 20|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|21include the fact that“Tampa Bays population,tourism,and economic development vastly increased.The city is transforming with new urban environments,transportation offerings,and a heightened focus on Vision Zero implementation to eliminate traffic fatalities and severe injuries.The Pilots Phase 4 lessons learned for the transportation sector regarding connected technology include the fact that this technology can truly assist in transforming grid systems throughout the U.S.into smart cities.”Transport authorities and operators need to work in conjunction with city and state authorities to ensure that policy and regulations supports CAV pilots and the eventual launch of full-fledged services-Pilot projects should adopt a“fail fast”approach to bounce back from any adversity and ensure that lessons inform policy development decisions-A clear mission statement about CAV projects will help to engage not only citizens but also potential partners critical when considering the potential impact of new services on local economies and their developmentCAVs will undoubtedly have their part to play in the future of urban passenger mobility,and as seen in the Jacksonville example,will primarily contribute to shared mobility initiatives as opposed to becoming a new mode of individual travel thereby tying into the strategies covered in the integration section of this report.Actionable insightsto live a lower-stress life without complete dependence on a car for mobility.The ability to walk,bike and take transit to your desired destinations across the city improves our health,economy and environment.”JTAs transit-oriented development process for U2C Identification of the benefits and impacts of TOD Identification of similar public transport systems that address JTAs use of TOD to“revitalise the downtown and equitably increase its residential population”Analysis of demographics and the real estate market in downtown Jacksonville and five U2C corridors Define the phases of TOD implementation Identification of financing and value capture mechanisms Identification of ongoing and regular interagency coordination necessary to successfully implement the U2C system.The implementation of TOD has three key elements:Assessment of six corridors encompassing 21 proposed stations.The corridors and station areas are evaluated to identify demographic,travel demand and growth trends;land use and zoning;multimodal accessibility;and real estate market demand.Stations are given a primary typology and TOD Desirability&Readiness rating Establishing TOD goals,measures,targets and secondary typologies.Proposed stations have been evaluated for TOD potential.Six stations were selected for more detailed station area planning.Virtual meetings were held to review these station area frameworks Identifying TOD regulations,financing,equity and implementation strategies.Key stations were selected for more detailed planning using a public engagement process.In an interview,JTA staff detailed that ongoing research from WSP showed that TOD yield for the U2C project could be around 15 million in gross square footage,encompassing 11,000 residential units,1.4 million in commercial-retail square footage,1.5 million in office square footage.Summary22|SmartCitiesWorld|Trend ReportTrend Report|SmartCitiesWorld|23Assessing the current trends in urban mobility provides a glimpse into what our future could look like and in some cases,especially around electrification and sustainability,what that future needs to look like if cities are to mitigate their most significant challenges.Sustainability is the common thread to many of the issues discussed in this report;it is not only environmental sustainability we must consider,but the sustainability of emerging business models in making agencies and operators profitable,and the use of technology to ensure that transport users are central to long-term planning where digitally-enabled solutions are being considered.These existing trends,many of which are still at a relatively nascent stage of development,demonstrate the importance of strategic planning at a time when emerging from the pandemic ridership is down and finances are stretched.Local,state and national transportation agencies and authorities primarily have a common goal and vision for the future of mobility,but a more joined-up approach to reaching it will be required enabled by cross-party information and data sharing and further standardisation of both technology and approach.The case studies covered in this report are among best practice examples that illustrate the thoroughness and care with which agencies and authorities must plan pilots and programmes,as well as develop policy,in order to drive toward that shared vision.Beyond technical requirements,the approaches that transportation organisations take from here must be citizen centric and show a clear understanding of citizen needs and requirements for now,in the immediate future,and beyond.Without citizens at the heart of systems thinking,inequity and inaccessibility gaps will be allowed to grow unchecked,not only in transportation but at a citywide level.Case StudyFurther reading and resourcesHydrogens role in transportation US Department of Energy Hydrogen will fuel more than 300 of Tokyos public buses by 2030 Arab News,JapanSouth Korea to acquire 624 H2 fuel cell buses by 2025-ElectriveTaxonomy of on-demand and shared mobility:ground,aviation,and marine SAE InternationalDARTs MaaS efforts Transportation Research BoardThe Ws of MaaS:understanding mobility as a service from a literature review Science DirectMobility payment integration:state-of-the-practice scan US Federal Transit AdministrationTransit Operator to MaaS Provide(TOMP)API GitHub DART 2045 transit system plan-DART Tampa CV pilot testing paves the way for creating smarter,safer cities Roads&Bridges
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Monitoring Progress in Urban Road Safety2022 UpdateSafer City StreetsMonitoring Progress in Urban Ro.
2023-02-09
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Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)IntroductionThe automotive software development process can be complex and time-consuming,which is why it is important to use the right software development tools and follow best practices for automotive software development.By doing so,you are able to ensure secure,reliable,and standards-compliant automotive software.Here,we provide an overview of the key automotive software standards that you should use,the best practices to safeguard against security threats,and touch on autonomous vehicles and smart car features.WHITE PAPERGuide to Automotive Software Development:Automotive Standards,Security,and Emerging T Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER2|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentTable of ContentsOverview of Automotive Standards.3Coding Guidelines.3MISRA.3AUTOSAR C 14.3How to Achieve Coding Standard Compliance.3ISO 26262 and ASIL Automotive Functional Safety.4Motorcycle Standards for Functional Safety.6ISO 21434 Automotive Software Security.7ISO/PAS 21448 Safety In Autonomous Driving.7 The Essential Automotive Software Quality Metrics.8The Future of Automotive Software D Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER3|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentOverview of Automotive StandardsAll vehicles are governed by standards.These include functional safety standards and functional security standards and these in turn require the use of coding guidelines for the development of the many software components in the vehicle.Overview of Coding GuidelinesAlthough no function safety or security standard specifies a particular coding standard,there are internationally recognized coding guidelines available to help meet the required security and safety standards.MISRAMISRA,originally written for the automotive industry,provides coding standards for developing safety-critical systems.The initial version,published in 1998 was for C,and this was then extended to C in 2008.MISRA C is the most widely used set of coding guidelines for C around the world.The most recent version of the standard is MISRA C:2012.MISRA C is widely used by safety-critical developers.The current version was published in 2008 but an update is forthcoming in the near future.MISRA coding guidelines are now widely used by industries such as aerospace and defense,telecommunications,medical devices,and rail as well as automotiveAUTOSAR C 14The AUTOSAR coding guidelines are for the use of the C 14 language in critical and safety-related systems.They were developed for use in the AUTOSAR Adaptive Platform,but are applicable to any safety-critical applications written in C .Since MISRA C was published,C has evolved and other C coding guidelines are available,for example HIC ,CERT C ,and C Core Guidelines.AUTOSAR C 14 addresses these changes and incorporates the expert knowledge embedded in these other coding standards.AUTOSAR C 14 is based on MISRA C :2008 coding guidelines but with the addition of the best features of other C coding standards,such as JSF and CERT C .The standard allows the use of some features that are not permitted by other C coding standards,including:Dynamic memory Exceptions Templates Inheritance Virtual functionsHow to Achieve Coding Standard ComplianceAchieving compliance to any coding standard takes knowledge,skill,and the right tools.Here are seven recommended steps to achieve compliance: Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER4|Guide to Automotive Software Development1.Know the Rules You need to know the coding rules pertinent to which version of C or C youre using.2.Check Your Code Constantly Continuously inspecting your code for violations is the best way to improve quality.3.Set Baselines Embedded systems come with legacy codebases.By setting baselines,you can focus on making sure your new code is compliant.4.Prioritize Violations Based on Risk You could have hundreds or even thousands of violations in your code.Thats why its important to prioritize rule violations based on risk severity.Some static code analysis tools can do this for you.5.Document Your Deviations Sometimes there are exceptions to the rule.But when it comes to compliance,every rule deviation needs to be well-documented.6.Monitor Your Compliance Keep an eye on how compliant your code is.Using a static code analyzer makes this easier by automatically generating a compliance report.7.Choose the Right Static Code Analyzer Choosing the right static code analyzer makes everything else easy.It takes care of scanning your code new and legacy for violations.It prioritizes vulnerabilities based on risk.ISO 26262 and ASIL:Automotive Functional SafetyISO 26262-“Road vehicles functional safety”,is the major functional safety standard used in the automotive industry,and ASIL is a key component to determine safety requirements for software development.It is a risk-based safety standard and applies to electric and/or electronic systems in production vehicles.This includes driver assistance,propulsion,and vehicle dynamics control systems.It covers the functional safety aspects of the entire development process:Requirements specification Design Implementation Integration Verification Validation ConfigurationWHY IS ISO 26262 IMPORTANT?The goal of the standard is to ensure safety throughout the lifecycle of automotive equipment and systems.Specific steps are required in each phase.This ensures safety from the earliest concept to the point when the vehicle is retired.Compliance to this standard is compulsory for any road vehicle and by complying,youll avoid or control systematic failures,detect or control random hardware failures and be able to mitigate the effects of failure.ISO 26262 FUNCTIONAL SAFETY FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPERSPart 6:Product development at the software level and Part 8:Supporting processes are the sections applicable to software development.They detail the steps that must be taken to ensure the safety of each component.WHAT IS ASIL?Automotive Safety Integrity Level(ASIL)is a key element of ISO 26262 and it is used to measure the risk of a specific system component.The more complex the system,the greater the risk of systematic failures and random hardware Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER5|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentThere are four Automotive Safety Integrity Level values,AD where ASIL A is the minimum level of risk and ASIL D is the maximum.Compliance requirements become stricter as you go from A to D.There is an additional option QM(quality management)which is used to note that there isnt a safety requirement for that component.HOW TO DETERMINE ASIL?ASIL is determined by three factors severity,exposure,and controllability.SEVERITYSeverity measures how serious the damages are of a system failure.Damages include both people and property.There are four classes of severity:1.S0:No injuries.2.S1:Light to moderate injuries.3.S2:Severe to life-threatening(survival probable)injuries.4.S3:Life-threatening(survival uncertain)to fatal injuries.EXPOSUREExposure is the likelihood of the conditions under which a particular failure would result in a safety hazard.The probability of each condition is ranked on five-point scale:5.E0:Incredibly unlikely.6.E1:Very low probability(injury could happen only in rare operating conditions).7.E2:Low probability.8.E3:Medium probability.9.E4:High probability(injury could happen under most operating conditions).CONTROLLABILITYControllability is a measure of the probability that harm can be avoided when a hazardous condition occurs.This condition might be due to actions by the driver or by external measures.The controllability of a hazardous situation is ranked on a four-point scale:10.C0:Controllable in general.11.C1:Simply controllable.12.C2:Normally controllable(most drivers could act to prevent injury).13.C3:Difficult to control or uncontrollable.HOW TO DETERMINE ASILOnce youve determined severity,probability,and controllability,you can determine the Automotive Safety Integrity Level.Table 4 of Part 3 provides guidance on Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER6|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentHOW TO COMPLY WITH ISO 26262Compliance with the safety standard is important,whether youre developing traditional automotive components(e.g.,integrated circuits)or virtual ones(e.g.,automotive hypervisors).And its critical to maintain compliance throughout your software development lifecycle.But complying can be difficult for development teams.Systems and codebases grow complex.And that makes it difficult to verify and validate software.You can make it easier by using certified software development tools.ESTABLISH TRACEABILITYFulfilling compliance requirements and proving you met them is a tedious process.You need to document the requirements and trace them to other artifacts including tests,issues,and source code.Establishing requirements traceability makes your verification process easier,and it helps you manage risk in the development process.Storing your code in a version control system securely manages revision history for all your digital assets.Youll get fine-grained access controls,high-visibility audit logs,strong password security,and secure replication.So,you can be confident in your code.APPLY A CODING STANDARDISO26262 requires that a coding standard is applied which will allow fulfill specific coding and design guidelines.Applying a coding standard,such as MISRA or AUTOSAR,is made easier by use a static analyzer.MOTORCYCLE STANDARDS FOR FUNCTIONAL SAFETYThe first edition of ISO 26262,published in 2011,covered series production passenger cars.While much of the guidance contained within this standard was also relevant to motorcycles,the hazard analysis and risk assessment for motorcycles required a different approach.Therefore,the scope of the second edition of ISO 26262,published in 2018,was extended to provide guidance to motorcycle manufacturers.Part 12,“Adaption of ISO 26262 for Motorcycles”was added which places more responsibility on the motorcyclist rather than the motorcycle to mitigate risks.To better assign safety criticality to a system,the Motorcycle Safety Integrity Levels(MSIL)were developed.They are determined by the same factors as ASIL and are assigned the same values,A-D,but include elements that are specific to motorcycle applications.Once the MSIL has been determined,it can be mapped to an equivalent ASIL:MSILASILQMQMAQMBACBCCThis then allows motorcycle applications to be developed according to the aligned ASIL with only some minor Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER7|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentISO/PAS 21448 Safety In Autonomous DrivingISO/PAS 21448 Road Vehicles Safety of the Intended Functionality(SOTIF)applies to functionality that requires proper situational awareness in order to be safe.The standard is concerned with guaranteeing safety of the intended functionality SOTIF in the absence of a fault.This is in contrast with traditional functional safety,which is concerned with mitigating risk due to system failure.SOTIF provides guidance on design,verification,and validation measures.Applying these measures helps you achieve safety in situations without failure.For example:Design measure example:requirement for sensor performance.Verification measure example:test cases with high coverage of scenarios.Validation measure example:simulations.WHY SOTIF IS IMPORTANTAutomated systems have huge volumes of data and that data is fed to complex algorithms.AI and machine learning are critical for developing these systems.To avoid potential safety hazards,AI will need to make decisions.This includes scenarios that require situational awareness.Using ISO 21448 will be key to ensure that AI is able to make decisions and avoid safety hazards.For example:The road is icy.An AI-based system might be unable to comprehend the situation and respond properly.This impacts the vehicles ability to operate safely.Without sensing the icy road condition,a self-driving vehicle might drive at a faster speed than is safe for the condition.Fulfilling ISO 21448 means taking that situation into account and making decisions based on probability.The goal of SOTIF is to reduce potential unknown,unsafe conditions.HOW ISO 21448 IS RELATED TO ISO 26262Although ISO 26262 covers functional safety in the event of system failures,it doesnt cover safety hazards that dont lead to a system failure.ISO 26262 still applies to existing,established systems such as dynamic stability control(DSC)systems or airbags.For these systems,safety is ensured by mitigating the risk of system failure.ISO 21448 applies to systems such as emergency intervention systems and advanced driver assistance systems.These systems could have safety hazards without system failure.ISO 21448 will be important for functional safety in autonomous driving.But compliance with established functional safety standards such as ISO 26262 will remain important.ISO 21434 Automotive Software SecurityISO 21434“Road vehicles cybersecurity engineering”is an automotive standard currently under development.It focuses on the cybersecurity risk in road vehicle electronic systems.The standard will cover all stages of a vehicles lifecycle from design through to decommissioning by the application of cybersecurity engineering.This will apply to all electronic systems,components,and software in the vehicle,plus any external Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER8|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentWhats more,the standard will provide developers with a comprehensive approach to implementing security safeguards that spans the entire supplier chain.The intent behind the standard is to provide a structured process to ensure that cybersecurity considerations are incorporated into automotive products throughout their lifetime.The standard will require automotive manufacturers and suppliers to demonstrate due diligence in the implementation of cybersecurity engineering and that cybersecurity management is applied throughout the supply chain to support it.It is intended that organizations will encourage a cybersecurity culture so that everything is designed with security considerations from the start.HOW TO COMPLY WITH ISO 21434ISO/SAE 21434 has specific requirements for software development including analysis to check for inherent weaknesses and the overall consistency,correctness,and completeness with respect to cybersecurity requirements.Cybersecurity should be at the forefront of all design decisions including the selection of the programming language to be used for software development.There are several criteria to be considered when selecting a programming language,including:Secure design and coding techniques.Unambiguous syntax and semantic definitions.However,some of these criteria may not be sufficiently addressed in the selected language.Which is why there are several ways of addressing these language deficiencies,including:Use of language subsets.Enforcement of strong typing.Use of defensive implementation techniques.It is recommended to use coding guidelines to address the deficiencies of the chosen language.C continues to be the most common language used in automotive software.MISRA C:2012 revision 1 and CERT C guidelines are particularly recommended in ISO/SAE 21434 for any projects using the C language.Creating a language subset is the core of MISRA C:2012 and CERT C guidelines.MISRA C:2012 revision 1 states:“The MISRA C Guidelines define a subset of the C language”.Both guidelines achieve this by preventing the use of functionality that may cause critical or unspecified behavior.Strong typing ensures that there is an understanding of the language data types and thus prevents certain classes of programming errors.Using coding guidelines,such as MISRA C:2012 and CERT C,that have strong typing ensures correctness and consistency.Defensive implementation techniques allow software to continue to function even under unforeseen circumstances.It requires thought about“what might happen”.There needs to be,for example,consideration of possible tainted data and understanding of the order of evaluation of arithmetic functions.Above all the code needs to be simple to understand.All defensive implementation techniques should start with the use of recognized coding guidelines.Both MISRA C:2012 Revision 1 and CERT C achieve this by identifying critical and unspecified language behavior and thus making the resulting code more reliable,less prone to errors,and easier to maintain.The Essential Automotive Software Quality MetricsIn the Automotive Industry,software quality is paramount and software metrics are an important measure of that quality and are applicable to both function safety and functional security standards Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER9|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentHowever,no single metric can give a definitive measure of the quality of software and Automotive suppliers need to agree with their OEM both the metrics they require and the acceptable limits of the values of those metrics.However,it is difficult to select the set of metrics that give the quality coverage required.HERSTELLER INITIATIVE SOFTWARE METRICSIn the Automotive industry,the obvious starting point for the selection of metrics are those defined in Hersteller Initiative Software(HIS).HIS defines a common set of software metrics which permits a supplier to make statements about the quality of the software product and the software development process.In addition,an acceptable range of values of the defined metrics is specified.These metrics are separated into distinct categories:15 Metrics with limits that generally measure the complexity of the code.3 Metrics without limits that are simply measured values that must be documented.METRICS WITH LIMITSMetrics with limits indicate range of values showing the acceptable boundary limits.Violations of the boundary limits must be justified,and further action is required by the supplier.Examples of the metrics with limits specified in HIS:CYCLOMATIC COMPLEXITY“V(G)”Cyclomatic Complexity is the count of the number of linearly independent paths through the source code.It can be used in two ways:1.To limit the complexity of code.2.To determine the number of test cases necessary to thoroughly test it.NUMBER OF GOTO STATEMENTS“GOTO”This metric is very simple,but it can easily be seen that the higher the number,the more paths through the code,which means the more difficult the code is to test.NUMBER OF RETURN POINTS WITHIN A FUNCTION RETURN“Good practice dictates that the ideal value of this metric should be 1 as this improves the maintainability of the function(a function with no specific return is also acceptable).METRICS WITHOUT LIMITSAll the metrics in this section are similar:STMT(changed),STMT(new),STMT(deleted).These measure the number of statements in a piece of software that have changed,are new,or have been deleted between the previous and the current version of the software.These are used to calculate the stability index,which is part of Metrics with limits.HIS is purely concerned with the coding phase of the software life cycle.By analyzing these metrics,and ensuring that they are within the specified limits,the effort required in the following phases particularly testing will be reduced.METRICS FOR ISO 26262It is necessary for Automotive applications to certify to ISO 26262,and as a requirement to achieve this certification,a series of metrics must be gathered.The required level of metrics depends on the ASIL which determines the degree of risk.Higher ASILs require more thorough quality measures to control the risk.Specific metrics are not required,but there are obvious well-known metrics that are Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)WHITE PAPER10|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentFor example,ENFORCEMENT OF LOW COMPLEXITY which is HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ALL ASIL can be measured by lines of code(LOC)and Cyclomatic Complexity(as discussed in HIS metrics).Similarly,at an architectural level,RESTRICT SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF SOFTWARE COMPONENTS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ALL ASIL can be measured by Halstead metrics which look at the source code to identify areas that may be subject to defects by interpreting the code as a sequence of tokens.The metrics that count the tokens are:STM20 Counts ALL operands in the file STM21 Counts ALL operators in the fileOther measures can be calculated regarding program length and difficulty.For example:STM22 Number of statements in a software component STVAR Total number of Variables STTLN Total Pre-processed Source Lines There are,of course,other sections of ISO 26262 that require metrics,particularly methods for tests and deriving test cases.SOFTWARE QUALITY METRICS WILL ALWAYS MATTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARESoftware metrics are vital for assessing and maintaining quality in the Automotive Industry.There are metrics that are specific to the requirements of Automotive OEMs and suppliers,but the choice of metrics should not be limited by those necessary for certification purposes.The metrics selected should be applicable to the role of the viewer;the OEMs view is different to that of the supplier.Metrics should be selected to measure the progress to achieve specific goals,and the data gathered analyzed and used by the appropriate people.When this is done,they are invaluable as a measure of progress and current software quality plus as an aid to improvement in the future.The Future of Automotive Software DevelopmentFuture development of Autonomous vehicles relies on AI and machine learning.One of the biggest challenges in this area is security.The starting point is a Secure Development ProcessesHere are three examples of key secure development processes:1.Good programming practices and thorough testing efforts are critical for eliminating security vulnerabilities.This can be achieved by using secure coding standards.2.Threat modeling and risk mitigation are key to developing safe components.This can be achieved by doing a hazard and risk analysis.3.Control over the build/release environment is key to keeping hackers out and keeping the build secure.This can be achieved through access controls in your CI/CD environment.Part of the secure development process should be automation.Applying automation to design,verification,and validation processes makes development teams more efficient.Using a requirements management tool contributes to safer design of the software.Using a test case management tool can help you ensure high coverage of different scenarios.This helps with software verification.Using a static analysis tool can help you simulate potential run-time scenarios.This helps with software Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0220RB21)About PerforcePerforce powers innovation at unrivaled scale.With a portfolio of scalable DevOps solutions,we help modern enterprises overcome complex product development challenges by improving productivity,visibility,and security throughout the product lifecycle.Our portfolio includes solutions for Agile planning&ALM,API management,automated mobile&web testing,embeddable analytics,open source support,repository management,static&dynamic code analysis,version control,and more.With over 9,000 customers,Perforce is trusted by the worlds leading brands,including NVIDIA,Pixar,Scania,Ubisoft,and VMware.For more information,visit .WHITE PAPER11|Guide to Automotive Software DevelopmentHow Perforce Software Development Tools can Help Ensure Secure,Reliable,and Standards-Compliant Automotive SoftwareThe most effective way to ensure that your automotive software is secure,reliable,and standards-compliant is to use a suite of tools,including a static code analyzer(like Helix QAC or Klocwork),a version control systems tool(like Helix Core),and an application lifecycle management tool(like Helix ALM).A static analyzer can be used to provide automatic enforcement of automotive coding guidelines such as MISRA and AUTOSAR.Yet,static analysis can do so much more than this,such as:Automatically and consistently enforcing coding standards and detecting rule violations.Detecting compliance issues earlier in the SDLC.Accelerating code reviews.Reporting compliance over time and across product versions.See for yourself how Perforce static code analyzers can help ensure that your automotive software is secure,reliable,and compliant.Request your free trial today.A version control systems tool,like Helix Core,supports your team and files as they grow.In addition,Helix Core supports build automation by:Providing a shared,centralized repository for commits.Maintaining a single source of truth for the build.Integrating with Jenkins and other build runners for better CI/CD projects.Automating workflows.Helix ALM provides end-to-end traceability by linking your requirements,test cases,and issues all inn one platform.Its configurable workflow easily adapts to the way you already work.This helps ensure that everyone on your team is able to seamlessly work together.TRY PERFORCE STATIC CODE ANALYZERSTRY HELIX CORETRY HELIX ALM
2023-02-08
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An on-ramp to sustainable mobilityAccelerating the shift to electric vehiclesIBM Institute for Busin.
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1Guide to Effective Transportation Management2Transportation management is more complex today than e.
2023-02-08
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Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)IntroductionAn essential part of the automotive software development process is ensuring that it is compliant with key industry coding standards and guidelines.However,that process can be complex and time-consuming without the right software development tools and best practices.Here,we provide an overview of the key automotive software standards and the best practices for compliance.WHITE PAPERGuide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional VehiclesWHITE PAPERGuide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)ContentsAutomotive Software.3Key Automotive Coding Guidelines.3Coding Guideline Best Practices for Software Safety and Security.4Automotive Software Functional Safety General.4ISO 26262:Automotive Functional Safety.4ASIL Overview.4Automotive Software Functional Safety Autonomous Vehicles.6SOTIF(ISO/PAS 21448)Overview.6How SOTIF(ISO/PAS 21448)Relates to ISO 26262.7UL 4600 Overview.7Automotive Software Functional Security.8How Perforce Static Analysis Tools Help Ensure Secure,Reliable,and Standards-Compliant Automotive Software.9WHITE PAPER3|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)Automotive SoftwareAll vehicle components regardless of whether they are for autonomous,semi-autonomous,or traditional vehicles have safety and security requirements,but the level of coverage varies depending on the functionality of the component.It is obvious that a braking system has major safety requirements,and an In-Vehicle Infotainment(IVI)that has external communication will have to consider cybersecurity.Going forward,there will be an increase in domain and area controllers within the vehicle,where many separate,distinct components are consolidated into a single,distributed platform for the entire vehicle.This leads to safety,scheduling,and security concerns.Many of these concerns can be addressed by enforcing functional safety and security standards.All components are required to meet ISO 26262 and in the future there will be a mandatory requirement to cover ISO/SAE 21434 for automotive cybersecurity.Both functional standards recommend the use of coding guidelines to detect undefined and critical unspecified behavior in programming languages.Key Automotive Coding GuidelinesMISRAMISRA,originally developed for the automotive industry,provides coding standards for developing safety-critical systems and has been extended to cover security.It is now used in all industries where there are critical systems.MISRA C was originally published in 1998,and the latest version is MISRA C:2012 third edition first revision with subsequent amendments covers C90,C99,and C11.It is now the most widely used set of coding guidelines for C around the world.In 2008,MISRA C was published and is now used extensively by safety-critical developers.An update is forthcoming within the next year to cover the later versions of C .All MISRA guidelines are assigned a category to determine which are of the highest risk.AUTOSAR C 14The AUTOSAR coding guidelines are for the use of the C 14 language in critical and safety-related systems.They were developed for use in the AUTOSAR Adaptive Platform but are applicable to any safety-critical applications written in C .AUTOSAR C 14 is based on MISRA C :2008 coding guidelines but with the addition of the best features of other C coding standards,such as JSF and CERT C .It allows for the use of some features that are not permitted by other C coding standards,including:Dynamic Memory Exceptions Templates Inheritance Virtual FunctionsThe AUTOSAR guidelines are classified according to the obligation level which indicates the risk of failing to resolve violations.CERTCERT is a secure coding standard that supports commonly used programming languages such as C,C ,and Java.It is composed of rules and recommendations that target insecure coding practices and undefined behaviors that lead to security risks.The rules provide requirements for the code while the requirements provide guidance that,when followed,should improve the safety,reliability,and security of software systems.WHITE PAPER4|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)Each guideline in the CERT Coding Standards contains a risk assessment section that attempts to provide software developers with an indication of the potential consequences of not addressing a particular rule or recommendation.Coding Guideline Best Practices for Software Safety and SecurityWhen selecting and implementing coding guidelines,there needs to be consideration of the application.Obviously,the programming language is the first step,but often that is already determined by the project.This will then lead to the available coding guidelines.Next,the scope of the application are there safety-critical or cybersecurity concerns,or both?All defensive implementation techniques should start with the use of recognized coding guidelines.MISRA C:2012 Revision 1 and CERT C(and by extension MISRA C and AUTOSAR C 14)identify critical and unspecified language behavior by implementing a language subset.This makes the resulting code more reliable,less prone to errors,and easier to maintain.The level of coverage required may vary depending on the functionality of the component.It may be that it is sufficient to only apply rules that detect high-risk violations.CERT defines the severity of each rule,and MISRA C applies a category.This allows a subset of rules to be enforced.However,any decision to disable rules from any coding guidelines must be considered carefully as a justification will often be necessary.Automotive Software Functional Safety GeneralAn essential part of the automotive software development process is verifying that the software is compliant with key industry standards and guidelines to ensure safety and security.ISO 26262:Automotive Functional SafetyISO 26262 “Road vehicles functional safety”,is the major functional safety standard used in the automotive industry.It is a risk-based safety standard and applies to electric and/or electronic systems in production vehicles.This includes driver assistance,propulsion,and vehicle dynamics control systems.ISO 26262 covers the functional safety aspects of the entire development process from requirements specification through design and implementation to verification and validation.WHY ISO 26262 IS IMPORTANT FOR AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWAREISO 26262 is important for automotive software because all road vehicles are required to comply with it to ensure safety throughout the lifecycle of the automotive equipment and systems.Specific steps are required in each phase to ensure safety from the earliest concept to the point when the vehicle is decommissioned.Compliance helps developers avoid or control systematic failures and mitigate the effects of failure.ASIL OverviewAutomotive Safety Integrity Levels(ASILs)are a key element of ISO 26262 and are used to measure the risk of a specific system component.The more complex the system,the greater the risk of systematic failures and random hardware failures.There are four ASIL values,A-D.ASIL A is the minimum level of risk and ASIL D is the maximum.WHITE PAPER5|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)Compliance requirements become stricter going from A to D.QM(quality management)is an additional option that is used to note that there is no safety requirement for a particular component.For more information on how to determine Automotive Safety Integrity Levels,download our white paper,How to Comply with the ISO 26262 Standard.ISO 26262 FUNCTIONAL SAFETY FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPERSISO 26262 is comprised of 11 parts,where Part 6:Product Development at the Software Level and Part 8:Supporting Processes are particularly applicable to electric vehicle software development.Part 6 contains a series of tables that includes methods to define software processes.(The full list of the tables supported by static analysis can be found in our white paper,How to Comply with the ISO 26262 Standard.)For each method,the degree of recommendation to use the corresponding method depends on the ASIL and is categorized as follows:“ ”indicates that the method is highly recommended for the identified ASIL.“ ”indicates that the method is recommended for the identified ASIL.“o”indicates that the method has no recommendation for or against its usage for the identified ASIL.For example,in Table 6 below,method a.one entry and one exit point in subprograms and functions is highly recommended for all ASILs,whereas method j.no recursions is only recommended for the lower levels.Table 6 Design Principles for Software Unit Design and Implementationa.One entry and one exit point in subprograms and functionsb.No dynamic objects or variables,or else online test during their creationc.Initialization of variablesd.No multiple use of variable namese.Avoid global variables or else justify their usagef.Restricted use of pointersg.No implicit type conversionsh.No hidden data flow or control flowi.No unconditional jumpsj.No recursions MethodsASILABCDWHITE PAPER6|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)HOW TO MEET ISO 26262 COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTSISO 26262 recommends that a coding standard is applied to cover many of the coding principles listed in the tables in Part 6.Applying a coding guideline such as MISRA or AUTOSAR C 14,can be made easier by using a static analysis tool.Any tool which is relied upon to show compliance with ISO 26262 must be qualified to ensure that it is suitable for use in a safety-related environment.Therefore,it is easier to use a tool that has already been certified,such as Perforce static analysis tools Helix QAC and Klocwork which have been certified by TV-SD for use in safety-related development.Automotive Software Functional Safety Autonomous VehiclesWhile the same functional safety and security standards that are essential for a traditionally powered vehicles are also relevant for autonomous vehicles,there are additional standards that should be followed.SOTIF(ISO/PAS 21448)OverviewSOTIF which stands for Safety of the Intended Functionality is the absence of unreasonable risk due to hazards resulting from functional insufficiencies of the intended functionality or by reasonably foreseeable misuse.ISO/PAS 21448(SOTIF)was developed to address the new safety challenges for autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle software,which rely on artificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning(ML).The aim is the same as for ISO 26262,the protection of humans from harm and injuries,but while the objective of ISO 26262is to avoid unreasonable risks derived from hazards caused by a malfunctioning of a system,the objective of ISO/PAS 21448(SOTIF)is to avoid unreasonable risks due to potentially hazardous behaviors related to functional insufficiencies or deficiencies.The need to cover this specific aspect of safety arose in the automotive field in relation to the development of self-driving cars.But,considering that the self-driving cars which will soon be able to drive without any human involvement are a product located at the intersection of automotive and robotics areas,it may be expected that SOTIF will apply,maybe with some adjustments,to robotics as well.ISO 21448 provides guidance on design and verification and validation measures.By applying these measures,automotive software developers can achieve safety in situations without failure and thus achieving SOTIF.It is applied to intended functionality where proper situational awareness is critical to safety,and where that situational awareness is derived from complex sensors and processing algorithms as used by AI and MLWHY SOTIF(ISO/PAS 21448)IS IMPORTANTSOTIF is important because verifying automated systems is difficult.In general,automated systems have huge volumes of data,which is fed to complex algorithms.Artificial intelligence and machine learning(AI/ML)are critical for developing these systems.To avoid potential safety hazards,the AI will need to make decisions in a variety of scenarios,including those that require situational awareness.SOTIF is key to ensuring that the AI can make the best decision for a given scenario to avoid safety hazards.WHITE PAPER7|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)WHERE SOTIF(ISO/PAS 21448)APPLIESSOTIF applies to safety violations that occur without the failure of a system.To better illustrate what this means,here is an example of situational awareness.It has been snowing and the road has become icy.The AI-based system installed in your self-driving car is unable to comprehend the situation and respond properly,impacting its ability to operate safely.Without being able to sense the icy road conditions,your self-driving car instead decides to drive faster than what would be safe putting your life,as well as those in your car and on the road,at risk.However,lets instead imagine that your self-driving cars software has fulfilled the SOTIF requirements.By doing so,it is able to take the road conditions into account and make a decision based on the probability of what could happen.Which means that instead of speeding up,your car makes the decision to slow down.How SOTIF(ISO/PAS 21448)Relates to ISO 26262ISO/PAS 21448(SOTIF)applies to systems that can have safety hazards without a system failure.Examples of these types of systems include emergency intervention systems and advanced driver assistance systems(ADAS).It does not apply to cases covered by the ISO 26262 or to hazards directly caused by the system technology.ISO 26262 covers functional safety in the event of system failures and applies to existing,established systems such as dynamic stability control(DSC)systems or airbags.For these systems,safety is ensured by mitigating the risk of system failure.Simply put,SOTIF compliments ISO 26262 to ensure that autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles are as safe as possible.UL 4600 OverviewUL 4600 Standard for Safety for the Evaluation of Autonomous Products addresses the safety principles and processes for evaluating fully autonomous systems that operate with no human intervention.It is intended to address the changes required from traditional safety practices to take into account autonomy,such as lack of human operator to take fault mitigation actions.WHITE PAPER8|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)It includes safety case construction,risk analysis,safety relevant aspects of design process,testing,tool qualification,autonomy validation,data integrity,human-machine interaction(for non-drivers),life cycle concerns,metrics,and conformance assessment.The approach is claim-based approach prescribing topics that must be addressed in creating a safety case.It does not define pass/fail criteria for safety or set acceptable risk levels.UL 4600 FUNCTIONAL SAFETY FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE DEVELOPERSUL 4600 is explicitly designed to help developers and manufacturers of automated products like self-driving cars to build a safety case for their product.It sets out a methodology by which the developer or manufacturer can explain why an autonomous vehicle is acceptably safe through a comprehensive and structured set of claims or goals.These claims or goals must then be supported by arguments and evidence.In addition,UL 4600 sets out a structure for the safety case,dividing claims into areas such as“risk assessment”;“interacting with Non-Driver Humans”;and“verification,validation,and testing”.Throughout the standard are extensive lists to“prompt”users to consider things which the standard defines as“mandatory”,“required”,“highly recommended”,and“recommended”.It also specifies how conformity with these prompts will be achieved and potential“pitfalls”.UL 4600 requires developers to consider the use of the vehicle throughout its operational life.This approach also requires that the supply chain for the maintenance of the vehicle has been considered.They must also have processes for managing any uncertainties,assumptions,and potential gaps in the safety case on an ongoing basis.It is mandatory that there is a structured software development process and evidence provided to show that it is followed at all levels from unit through to system.This can be difficult for some levels of autonomy,for example machine-learning,but the steps in development must be defined.Therefore,it is highly recommended that processes from traditional safety standards like ISO 26262 are adopted.In addition,it is also highly recommended that evidence of compliance to safety and security standard coding guidelines like MISRA is provided.Automotive Software Functional SecurityThe frequency of cyberattacks on vehicles increased 225%from 2018 to 2021,according to the Upstreams 2022 Global Automotive Cybersecurity Report.This staggering increase highlights how automotive software security is no longer optional but absolutely necessary.ISO/SAE 21434:AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE SECURITYISO/SAE 21434“Road vehicles cybersecurity engineering”is an automotive standard that focuses on the cybersecurity risk in road vehicle electronic systems.The standard covers all stages of a vehicles lifecycle from the initial design to end-of-life decommissioning,by the application of cybersecurity engineering.This applies to all electronic systems,components,and software in the vehicle,plus any external connectivity.In addition,ISO/SAE 21434 provides a comprehensive approach to implementing security safeguards that span the entire supplier chain.WHY ISO/SAE 21434 IS IMPORTANT FOR AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWAREISO/SAE 21434 is important for automotive software as current safety-critical standards are not sufficient to cover cybersecurity risks.The standard provides a structured process to ensure that cybersecurity considerations are incorporated into automotive products throughout their lifetime.The standard requires automotive manufacturers and suppliers to demonstrate due diligence in the implementation of cybersecurity engineering and that cybersecurity management is applied throughout the supply chain to support it.WHITE PAPER9|Guide to Automotive Software Compliance:Autonomous,Semi-Autonomous,and Traditional V Perforce Software,Inc.All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.(0620RB22)About PerforcePerforce powers innovation at unrivaled scale.Perforce solutions future-proof competitive advantage by driving quality,security,compliance,collaboration,and speed across the technology lifecycle.We bring deep domain and vertical expertise to every customer,so nothing stands in the way of success.Our global footprint spans more than 80 countries and includes over 75%of the Fortune 100.Perforce is trusted by the worlds leading brands to deliver solutions to even the toughest challenges.Accelerate technology delivery,with no shortcuts.Get the Power of Perforce.HOW TO MEET ISO/SAE 21434 REQUIREMENTSISO/SAE 21434 requires that cybersecurity is at the forefront of all design decisions including the selection of the programming language to be used for software development.There are several criteria to be considered when selecting a programming language,which include:Secure design and coding techniques.Unambiguous syntax and semantic definitions.However,some of these criteria may not be sufficiently addressed in the selected language.Therefore,it is recommended that coding guidelines such as MISRA and CERT are used to address the deficiencies of the chosen language.There is an additional requirement to verify the compliance with the selected coding guidelines,with the recommendation to use static analysis tools.Static analysis tools can both verify compliance with the coding guidelines and provide evidence of that compliance.This will provide overall consistency,correctness,and completeness with respect to cybersecurity requirements.In addition,a static analysis tool will make compliance simpler and help meet development guidelines to produce safe,secure,and reliable software.How Perforce Static Analysis Tools Help Ensure Secure,Reliable,and Standards-Compliant Automotive SoftwareTo effectively identify software security vulnerabilities and weaknesses,as well as to enforce recommended coding standards and guidelines,an industry standardized tool should be used specifically a static analysis tool.Static analysis tools such as Helix QAC and Klocwork can both verify compliance with coding standards and guidelines,and provide evidence of that compliance.This will provide overall consistency,correctness,and completeness with respect to functional safety and cybersecurity requirements.By using a static analysis tool,you can accelerate compliance by:Enforcing coding standards and detecting rule violations.Detecting compliance issues earlier in development.Accelerating code reviews and manual testing efforts.Reporting on compliance over time and across product versions.Perforce static analysis tools provide full compliance to both MISRA and CERT guidelines.They are also certified for use for safety-critical systems by TV-SD,including ISO 26262 up to ASIL level D.See for yourself how Perforce static analysis tools can help ensure the functional safety and security of your automotive software.Request your free trial today.STATIC ANALYSIS FREE TRIAL
2023-02-06
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2022 INRIX Global Traffic ScorecardBob Pishue,Transportation AnalystJanuary 2023INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD2KEY FINDINGS For the second straight year,London again tops the Global Traffic Scorecard as the most congested city in the world.The average London driver lost 156 hours due to congestion in 2022,but Chicago is a close second,as drivers there saw a drastic return to pre-COVID congestion levels by spending an extra 155 hours sitting in traffic.Paris rounds out the top 3 in 2022 with 138 hours lost.Traffic delays exceeded pre-COVID levels in 39%of urban areas in the US(116 out of 295),and 42%in Europe(249 out of 593).In the UK,traffic delays increased 72%in urban areas(79 out of 110),while in Germany,51%of urban areas saw more delay than in 2019(37 out of 72).The typical US driver lost 51 hours due to congestion in 2022,a 15-hour increase over 2021.In the UK,a driver lost 80 hours due to traffic congestion,a 7-hour increase,and in Germany,drivers lost 40 hours on average,with no change from 2021.Fuel prices had a small effect on the amount people traveled but have increased the burden drivers and freight-movers shoulder.Annual fuel costs rose nearly$315 for the typical commuter in Los Angeles over 2021,and 188($223 USD)for the average commuter in London.Due to fuel tax relief,drivers in Germany paid an additional 38 ($42 USD)in direct fuel price increases over 2021.Telecommuting has appeared to ease with the onset of hybrid work,yet still exceeds its pre-COVID mode share significantly.In the UK,hybrid work increased from 13%to 24%,while working solely from home dropped from 22%to 14%.Trips to downtowns and city centers generally increased over 2021,but in London,trips decreased,however,the City of London recovered faster than other downtowns in 2021.Congestion cost the US more than$81 billion in 2022,UK drivers nearly 9.5 billion,and German drivers 3.9 billion.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLDTABLE OF CONTENTSIntroduction Fuel Prices Increase Cost of CommutingTelecommuting&Hybrid Work Still Affecting Downtown TravelFatality Rates Remain ElevatedCommuting Isnt Just About CarsData&MethodologyKey DefinitionsGlobal Analysis&RankingUnited States AnalysisRankingsWorst CorridorsEurope Analysis&RankingRankingsThe United KingdomRankingsWorst CorridorsGermany AnalysisRankingsWorst CorridorsConclusion&CommentaryReferencesAbout INRIX Research4678910111214151618192020212222232425273INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD4INTRODUCTIONWith most countries around the world easing COVID-19 restrictions following vaccinations,new therapeutics,and less severe strains of COVID,2022 was expected to be a year of re-emergence closer to 2019 behavioral norms as federal,state,and local governments around the world reversed mandates on social gatherings,workplaces re-opened,and music and entertainment venues started hosting crowds.Yet that trend was halted as oil prices began to rise across the world and were further exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine by neighboring country Russia.From January through June,the price of regular motor gasoline rose 49%and the price of diesel fuel rose slightly more than 55%,according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics.While prices decreased slightly in the second half of the year and ended 2022 58%higher than pre-COVID 19 levels.Increased fuel prices and inflation had a significant negative economic impact on real wages,commuting,air travel costs,freight movement,the supply chain,and lead to cost increases in goods and services around the globe.INRIX found that the typical driver commuting to work paid more than$1,325 for fuel in 2022,versus$1,010 in 2021.Commuting by driving in the UK cost Londoners an additional 212($278 USD)in petrol while fuel tax relief in Germany kept the increase in fuel costs to about 38 ($42 USD)per driving commuter.Despite higher fuel costs,people have continued to drive.INRIX data shows US VMT increased less than 1%from 2021,UK VMT saw a 4%increase and VMT in Germany jumped 21%.However,compared to pre-COVID times,US VMT was still down 9%and UK VMT lagged 13%,in contrast with Germany,where VMT leapt above pre-COVID levels by 8%.One reason the US likely didnt reach pre-COVID VMT is the current state of office space use.In the US,The New York Times reported that many companies are opting for smaller offices,and that“Wall Street investors appear to think the office space sector is in for a deep slump.”iMany employers,though not all,continued to allow employees to work from home,either full time or hybrid,with nearly 18%of employees in the US working from home,resulting in fewer trips to Downtown areas than in 2019.Although there remained fewer drivers on the road,safety concerns on transportation networks,especially in the US,continued to remain above pre-COVID levels.Though traffic-related deaths fell the first half of 2022 versus the same period a year earlier,the estimated fatality rate of 1.27 traffic deaths per 100 million VMT was 17%higher than 2019 fatality rate of 1.09 per 100 million VMT.iiThe rate of 1.27 traffic deaths is still significantly higher than the years between 2011-2019.However,that trend has not been present in the UK,which has seen its traffic death marginally increase from 0.51 traffic deaths per 100 million VMT in 2019 to 0.52 in 2021,while each year between 2011-2018 had a higher fatality rate.iiiIn terms of other modes of transportation,US public transport use rebounded significantly over 2021 levels by 33%.ivHowever,US public transport use still lagged pre-COVID ridership levels by 39%.vIn the UK,national rail sits at approximately 84%of pre-COVID levels,while London Tube ridership is about 76%of pre-COVID levels.viAs the 9 ticket started in June,German officials reported short distance public transport ridership increases of 36%in the first half of 2022 versus 2021,but ridership still lags 2019 levels by 21%.viiINRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD5INTRODUCTION(CONT.)Cycling increased across the UK by about 12%over pre-COVID level but had mixed results in the US.viiiBike counters in Germany also logged an increase comparable cycle counts in Cologne,Dusseldorf,and Berlin were up 21%,9%and 8%,respectively over 2019.ixYet cycling in cities like Seattle and San Francisco decreased as strong telecommuting continued,at the same time New York Citys Citi Bike program recorded record ridership in 2022 and Washington,DC reported a 6.5%increase,mostly due to a 150%increase in bike counts at the Anacostia River Trail River Terrace counting station.xIn summary,while congestion returned in many places,it did not reach pre-pandemic levels.Transit use overall still lagged 2019 levels,and cycling was mixed depending on location.Additionally,drivers still paid more for fuel while vehicle-miles remained the same or slightly increased over 2021.As countries across the world deal with record inflation and slowdowns in their economies,an air of uncertainty still exists around transportation and commuting because of global economic slowdowns and telecommuting preferences rather than an extension of the pandemic.6Fuel Prices Increase Costs of CommutingOil price increases around the world have resulted in soaring gasoline and diesel prices over the last year.In the US,national pre-pandemic prices for regular unleaded were at$2.35 per gallon in February 2020.Prices hit a high of$4.76 during June 2022,before receding to$3.25 per gallon in December 2022.xiThis has led to increases in freight costs,commuting costs,and the prices consumers pay for goods and services.Yet depending on location,fuel prices vary considerably.Consider Los Angeles,where the 2021 average price per gallon was$4.00,and the preliminary 2022 average price is$5.49 per gallon,significantly greater than the national average.The price per gallon is even greater in the UK and Germany,where energy/fuel taxes and Value Added Taxes(VAT)boost the price of fuel.Both the UK and Germany implemented measures to reduce the burden on drivers by reducing taxes.xiiDespite that,the costs of commuting jumped across the board.Based on INRIX commuting analysis,the annual cost of fuel per commuter increased about$315 per Los Angeles commuter compared to 2021,while commuters in Chicago paid$242 more to commute to work in 2022.Commuters in the London paid about 212($278 USD)more to drive to work in 2022 versus 2021,while driving to work in Berlin,Germany cost just 51 ($57 USD)more,likely due to the subsidization of fuel keeping prices at the pump lower.However,driving commutes outside of major metro areas also saw increased costs.Fuel for the typical commute in the US was$134 more in 2022 than in 2021 and in the UK a driving commuter paid about 122($128 USD)more.In Germany,drivers paid about 38 ($42 USD)more for fuel to commute in 2022 than in 2021.While telecommuters and those working from home saved on commuting costs,higher prices still affected the cost of goods and services,leisure trips,running errands,and driving to shopping centers.Figure 1:Change in Cost of Fuel for Driver Commuting$1,011$711$606$762$646$412$1,033$884$595$825$767$609$1,325$953$782$975$857$546$1,311$1,123$756$882$820$651$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400Los AngelesChicagoHoustonNew YorkDCUS AvgLondonBirminghamUK AvgBerlinHamburgGermanyAvgAnnual Cost of Unleaded Fuel for Commuting in$USD 7Telecommuting&Hybrid Work Still Affecting Downtown TravelDespite the reopening of many economies,telecommuting(working from home)has continued to remain relatively strong.According to the latest US Census Bureau statistics,17.9%of workers in the country worked from home in 2021,versus 5.7%in 2019,a more than 200%increase in mode share.xiiiYet employers and employees appear to have switched to a more hybrid model since.In the UK,between February and May 2022,employees with hybrid work schedules increased from 13%to 24%,while the percentage working only from home decreased from 22%to 14%.xivAs a result,trips to employment centers generally increased to downtown/city centers since their COVID-19 lows,though not all downtowns increased over 2021,and many started from significant deficits as shown in previous years Global Traffic Scorecards.Cologne,Germany saw the largest increase among those downtowns analyzed,with a 28%jump in trips to downtown,followed by Berlin( 25%)Washington,DC( 23%)and Charlotte,North Carolina( 19%).Leeds,UK(-17%),Sheffield(-14%)and London(-11%)saw the biggest decreases among city centers analyzed but had generally recovered trips faster than many other EU cities analyzed earlier in the pandemic.Table 1:Year over Year Change in Trips to Downtown/City Center,by LocationDowntown(City Center)TripsDowntownYoY ChangeDowntownYoY ChangeUnited StatesAtlanta3%Miami4ltimore-2%Minneapolis3%Boston13%New Orleans7%Charlotte19%New York17%Chicago1%Philadelphia1llas8%Phoenix14nver9%San Diego17troit18%San Francisco15%Houston11%Seattle14%Los Angeles-1%Washington DC23%United Kingdom GermanyBirmingham2rlin25%London-11%Hamburg15%Manchester-2%Munich-5%Sheffield-14%Frankfurt19%Leeds-17%Cologne28atality Rates Remain ElevatedThroughout the COVID pandemic period,fatality rates on Americas roadways remained relatively high.In the first half of 2019,for example,the fatality rate in the US was 1.07 fatalities per 100 million VMT,while in 2021 that half-year rate jumped to 1.30 fatalities per 100 million VMT.Though the fatality rate decreased slightly to 1.27,it is still significantly higher than in past years.xvThe UK,on the other hand,did see a slight increase in the fatality rate during the pandemic,as the rate moved from 0.51 fatalities per 100 million VMT to 0.54 in 2020.xviBut in 2021 that rate had fallen back 0.52,still significantly lower than the 10-year average.2022 fatality estimates have yet to be released in the UK,but preliminary findings over the past year suggest that road fatalities are down 4%compared to 2019.xviiWith a slightly decreased VMT figure,its probable that the UK fatality rate remains close to 2021s figure.German officials projected 2022 road fatalities to increase 9%over last year,to 2,790,still under 2019s 3,050 road fatalities.xviiiTo try to combat rising road deaths,state and local transportation officials across the US have widely adopted a“Vision Zero”or“Target Zero”goal a concept first used across Europe in the 1990s.Most of these plans set a goal zero traffic deaths on roadways by a specific year,like 2030,and highlight the value in using data to prioritize interventions and projects.For example,deciding whether to change roadway configuration to slow down vehicles to planning roadways that enable safe access for all users.Yet despite the plan to eliminate roadway deaths,fatalities are not falling in all areas.As Vision Zero deadlines approach,city,county,regional,Tribal and state governments will need to remain vigilant to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on the countrys road network.In the US,the$1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law allocated more than half of the funds toward road and highway safety,providing funding for important projects to reduce serious injuries and fatalities.1.041.101.051.011.061.141.131.111.071.241.301.270.620.570.550.560.530.540.530.530.510.540.520.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Fatality Rate per 100 million VMT,US&UKUS Fatality RateUK Fatality RateFigure 2:Annual Fatality Rates for US&UK(Latest Data Available)9Commuting Isnt Just About CarsWhile VMT picked up just months after the pandemic started in 2020,and is at or near pre-COVID levels,other modes have had mixed results.For example,year-to-date transit ridership in the US dropped more than 50%following the COVID-19 outbreak but recovered 33%of those losses over the past year.xixRail ridership specifically has continued to lag bus ridership in most metro areas.Rail ridership between January and September was still 65low 2019 levels in 2021 yet grew 55tween 2021 and 2022.A large part of this is a continued lack of commuter demand to downtowns and city centers,but public transport agencies also faced numerous challenges:the virus itself,staffing shortages,higher costs,and reduced fare revenues.xxIn Europe,transit ridership still lags pre-COVID levels as well.UK transit ridership is closely approaching pre-COVID levels,with different modes of transport reaching 70-90%of pre-COVID level as of November 2022,and Germany sits similarly as local transit use is still down 21%from pre-COVID times.xxiFigure 2:UK Public Transport Use by Mode Versus Pre-COVID Baseline0 0Pp0 20 Mar2020 Apr2020 May2020 Jun2020 Jul2020 Aug2020 Sep2020 Oct2020 Nov2020 Dec2021 Jan2021 Feb2021 Mar2021 Apr2021 May2021 Jun2021 Jul2021 Aug2021 Sep2021 Oct2021 Nov2021 Dec2022 Jan2022 Feb2022 Mar2022 Apr2022 May2022 Jun2022 Jul2022 Aug2022 Sep2022 Oct2022 NovAverage of UK Public Transport Use,by Mode,by Month Compared to BaselineNational RailLondon TubeLondon BusBus(excluding London)Cycling also rose in popularity during the pandemic throughout the UK&Germany.The latest UK.GOV data show cycling at about 112%of pre-COVID levels through November,while cycle counters in German cities show growth between 8-21%.xxiiYet some of those gains didnt make their way across the Atlantic.Seattle,for example,has seen decreases on every active bike counter in operation compared to pre-COVID times.xxiiiAccording to the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency,the latest data showed 2022 cycle counts between January and October 2022 to be down 23%from the same period in 2019.xxivHowever,in New York,the bikeshare program Citi Bike announced record levels of bike rentals in 2022.xxvThe results are mixed,especially in the US,on whether cycling will increase post-pandemic or whether it will continue to lag pre-COVID levels.Cycling advocates and government officials across the country stressed that boosting funding for safety will increase cycling and pedestrian activity.In the 2021 federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law,various spending programs provided billions of dollars to increase bike and pedestrian infrastructure.For example,the Transportation Alternatives program provides$1.4 billion per year for trails,bike paths,sidewalks,Safe Routes to School programs,and more.The Highway Safety Improvement Program is estimated to fund about$3 billion in projects,some of which can be used for bike and pedestrian safety.INRIX collects billions of anonymous data points every day from a diverse set of sources,including connected vehicles,mobile devices,navigation units,fleet vehicles,road and garage infrastructure,and publicly available information on incidents.With coverage on all roads in countries of coverage,and lane by lane precision,INRIX is the preferred provider of driving and mobility intelligence for leading automakers,businesses,and all levels of government for accurate,real-time and historical.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD10DATA&METHODOLOGYThe 2022 Global Traffic Scorecard provides a more granular and holistic analysis of mobility within the worlds most congested cities.The 2022 Scorecard continues to include travel delay comparisons,collision trends and last-mile speeds based on the unique commuting patterns within each metro area.But also included key insight on transportation trends,with data from outside sources.The 2022 Scorecard calculated time loss by analyzing peak speed and free-flow speed data for the busiest commuting corridors and sub areas as identified by data density.Employing free-flow data enables a direct comparison between peak periods and serves as the basis for calculating time loss.Total time lost is the difference in travel times experienced during the peak periods compared to free-flow conditions on a per driver basis.In other words,it is the difference between driving during commute hours versus driving at night with little traffic.Data used to complete the 2022 Scorecard is based on more than 11 months of data,extrapolated to an annual number.The Scorecard also incorporates three years of historical data to provide a complete year-over-year comparison of congestion and mobility.A multi-year approach enables the identification of trends in the worlds largest cities and provides a basis for comparison.Commuting fuel costs were determined by using the median commute distance for each urban area as calculated by INRIX,area-specific fuel prices where applicable,fleet fuel efficiency for each country for unleaded gasoline,and assumed 240 commute days through the calendar year.Due to the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe,Russian urban areas have been omitted from the 2022 Global Traffic Scorecard.Commute times were calculated by looking exclusively at the time it takes to get to and from major employment centers within an urban area from surrounding commuting neighborhoods.The 2022 Scorecard used anonymized GPS probe data to identify the most frequented routes and destinations throughout a region to create a more accurate portrayal of commuting for a region,not just to and from a downtown core.With the increased level of detail,INRIX calculated the additional time lost commuting due to traffic between multiple points within a region,which can be explored further on the Scorecards interactive city pages at costs are calculated based on the following hourly values of time,which were based on U.S.Federal Highway Administrations Revised Departmental Guidance on Valuation of Travel Time for Economic Analysis,2016,adjusted for inflation:$16.89 per hour in the U.S.,8.83 per hour in the U.K.and 10.08 per hour in Germany.11KEY DEFINITIONSImpact Rank:The primary INRIX rank,based on the severity of congestion(hours lost)weighted by city size.Urban Area:The geographic scope of a city as defined by its road network density.Hours Lost:The total number of hours lost in congestion during peak commute periods compared to off-peak conditions.Pre-COVID Period:Interchangeable with 2019,though in some contexts it differs from a 2019 average to a comparable day in 2019,depending on data source.Downtown Speed:The speed at which a driver can expect to travel one mile into the central business district during AM peak hours.Peak:The absolute worst portion of the morning and afternoon commute.Off-Peak:The low point between the morning and afternoon commute periods.Vehicle-Miles Traveled(VMT):The amount of passenger travel within a geography for a specified time period.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD12GLOBAL ANALYSIS&RANKINGLondon(156 hours lost),Chicago(155),Paris(138),Boston(134),and New York(117)comprise the Top 5 most congested cities in the global congestion Impact Ranking.These results are due to their large populations and the increasing morning commute,when added to the evening commute rebound witnessed in 2021,resulted in traffic patterns last seen in 2019.The Impact Rank captures the aggregate influence of congestion relative to population.On the other hand,hours lost reflects the impact of congestion on the typical driver and commuter on the roadway.In terms of hours lost,London,Chicago,and Paris still took the top spots with 156 hours,155 hours,and 138 hours lost respectively.Cities like Bogota,Boston,Miami and Toronto all moved up significantly from last year,seeing double digit increases over 2021.Drivers in just seven of the top 25 cities spent less time in traffic in 2022 than they did in 2021,with drivers in Brussels seeing a-27crease in traffic congestion.Despite higher fuel prices,significant inflationary pressure,and supply chain problems around most of the world-in addition to a war in Europe-most urban areas experienced more delay in 2022 than in 2021.However,most still lag their 2019 levels of traffic congestion,as commuting and work habits have shifted considerably.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD132022 Impact Rank(2021 Rank)Urban AreaCountry2022 Delay per Driver(hours)Change from 2021Change from Pre-COVIDDowntown Speed(mph)Change in Downtown Speed1(1)LondonUK1565%5-9%2(6)Chicago ILUSA15549%7-27%3(2)ParisFRA138-1%-160%4(18)Boston MAUSA13472%-10-27%5(5)New York City NYUSA11715%-16-15%6(8)BogotaCOL12230%-36-15%7(22)Toronto ONCAN11859%-13-29%8(13)Philadelphia PAUSA11427%-20-15%9(32)Miami FLUSA105590-21(9)PalermoITA12111%-12(36)MonterreyMEX116668-17(16)DublinIRL11428%-26-8(7)RomeITA1070%-36-7(33)Los Angeles CAUSA9553%-8-17(34)San Francisco CAUSA9752%0-14(10)IstanbulTUR891%-420(3)BrusselsBEL98-27%-300(68)MedellinCOL91722-14(11)BucharestROU91-7%*157 (99)Washington DCUSA8389%-33-21!(12)LyonFRA92-10%-12-9(23)Mexico CityMEX7410%-53-14#(15)BudapestHUN86-7%-77$(43)Cape TownZAF8036%-35-20%(50)BristolUK9138%-12-13%*New to Scorecard in 2020INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD14UNITED STATES ANALYSIS&RANKINGIn 2022,Chicago(155 hours lost),Boston(134),New York(117),Miami(105)and Los Angeles(95)ranked in the top 5 for congestion impact in the US.Both Chicago and Miami now have more traffic congestion and delays than they did pre-COVID,while Boston,New York and Los Angeles still lag 2019 levels.In the top 25,some of the biggest increases in delay occurred in Miami and Las Vegas.Miami saw an increase of 39 hours of delay over last year,a 59%increase,and drivers in Las Vegas lost 13 more hours in 2022 than the year before,a 46%increase.For the first time,Nashville also cracked the top 25 list,as drivers lost 41 hours to traffic congestion in 2022,a 14%increase over 2019 levels.Of the 295 US urban areas analyzed,179 are still below theirUnited States Findings Time Lost:51 hours,up 15 hours from 2021 Cost to Driver:$869,up$305 from 2021 Cost to Country:$81 billion Fuel Costs:Up 32%Collisions:Up 4%pre-COVID normal levels,while 116 have surpassed them.Of the top 50 ranked areas,just 12 have exceeded 2019 levels,indicating its the smaller,less-congested cities that have already“returned to normal”in terms of traffic.The typical driver in the country lost 51 hours in congestion,up 15 hours from 2021s 36 hours lost,costing the average driver$869 in lost time.That doesnt include fuel cost increases,which INRIX analyzed would cost the average American driver$134 more in 2022 than in 2021.It would cost the Los Angeles commuter nearly$315 more in 2022 than in 2021,and the typical New York driver an additional$213 in 2022.Nationally,drivers spent 4.8 billion hours in congestion,still short of 2019s 6 billion lost hours.The cost of traffic delays across the country increased from$53 billion in 2021 to$81 billion in 2022,a 53%increase.However,despite an approximate 17%jump in inflation since,the cost of nationwide congestion is still down$7 billion from 2019s high of$88 billion.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD152022 US Rank(2021 Rank)Urban Area2022 Delay(2021)Compared to Pre-COVID2022 Cost per Driver2022 Cost per CityDowntown Speed(mph)Change in Downtown Speed1(2)Chicago IL155(104)7%$2,618$9.5 B11-27%2(4)Boston MA134(78)-10%$2,270$4.3 B11-27%3(1)New York City NY117(102)-16%$1,976$10.2 B11-15%4(3)Philadelphia PA114(90)-20%$1,925$4.5 B11-15%5(5)Miami FL105(66)30%$1,773$4.5 B15-21%6(6)Los Angeles CA95(62)-8%$1,601$8.6 B19-17%7(7)San Francisco CA97(64)0%$1,642$2.6 B12-14%8(13)Washington DC83(44)-33%$1,398$3.5 B11-21%9(8)Houston TX74(58)-9%$1,257$3.7 B16-16(10)Atlanta GA74(53)-10%$1,257$3.1 B16-16(9)New Orleans LA77(63)-3%$1,297$665 M14-13(11)Portland OR72(48)-19%$1,216$1.2 B15-12(14)Stamford CT73(46)-1%$1,236$465 M13-19(12)Dallas TX56(44)-11%$953$3.1 B16-16(16)Baltimore MD55(37)-35%$932$1.1 B12-14(19)San Diego CA54(32)-23%$912$1.3 B19-17(15)Denver CO54(40)-14%$912$1.2 B14-13(21)Austin TX53(32)-23%$892$850 M17-15(22)Seattle WA46(30)-38%$770$1.2 B17-11 (20)Concord CA54(40)*$912$53 M18-10!(17)Providence RI42(38)-40%$709$500 M14-13(23)Las Vegas NV41(28)156%$689$622 M19-10#(*)San Juan PR41(24)-7%$689*20-5$(54)Nashville TN41(16)14%$689$600 M21-13%(24)Sacramento CA36(25)-44%$608$550 M17-11%INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD16Throughout the country,delay on the busiest corridors increased in 2022 along with congestion metro wide.I-95 through Stamford,Connecticut,took the number 1 and number 3 spots.Drivers on the 30-mile corridor on I-95 Southbound from Sherwood Island Connector to Indian Field Road lost an average of 34.5 minutes per day in lost time during the morning commute,only to see significant congestion on the return trip Northbound,losing nearly 30 minutes on that stretch of I-95.I-5 Southbound in Los Angeles was number 2 on the top 25 list,where drivers lost an average of 31.8 minutes per day at the 5:00 PM rush hour.A driver taking that route 240 workdays in 2022 would have lost 127 hours a year sitting in traffic.Other notable corridors are I-93 Southbound through Downtown Boston to the Pilgrim Highway Interchange(99 hours lost annually)and Westbound Brooklyn Queens Expressway to Tillary Street in New York City(91 hours lost).Top 25 Worst Corridors in the U.S.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD17RankUrban AreaRoad NameFromToPeak Hour2022 Peak Minutes Lost2022 Hours Lost1Stamford,CTI-95 SBSherwood Island Conn.Indian Field Rd8:00 AM34.5138 2Los Angeles,CAI-5 SBI-10I-6055:00 PM31.8127 3Stamford,CTI-95 NBIndian Field RdSherwood Island Conn.4:00 PM29.6118 4Boston,MAI-93 SBExit 18/US-3Exit 7/MA-34:00 PM24.799 5New York City,NYI-278 WBI-495Tillary St4:00 PM22.691 6Concord,CACA-4 EBExit 12B for I-680Exit 15A-B for CA-2424:00 PM20.783 7Stamford,CTCT-15 NBNorth StAllen Raymond Lane4:00 PM19.578 8Stamford,CTMerritt Pkwy SBWilton RdStanwich Rd8:00 AM18.373 9Chicago,ILI-55 SBI-94S Central Ave4:00 PM17.972 10Orlando,FLI-4 EBExit 72/FL-528Exit 60/FL-429 Toll5:00 PM17.470 11Baton Rouge,LAI-10 EBBayou RdI-124:00 PM17.169 12New York City,NYI-95 NBI-678E 175th St4:00 PM17.068 13Dublin,CAI-580 EBGrove WayAirway Blvd4:00 PM15.863 14Chicago,ILI-90/I-94 EBI-290I-574:00 PM15.662 15Norfolk,VAI-664 NBI-64 Exit 264Exit 9/VA-1644:00 PM15.662 15Los Angeles,CACA-91 WBI-15 Exits 96-96AExit 45/CA-717:00 AM15.562 17Tacoma,WAWA-167 SB15th St SWValley Ave East4:00 PM14.558 17New York City,NYHarlem River Dr NBEast 127th StTrans-Manhattan Expy4:00 PM14.458 19Chicago,ILI-290/IL-110 EBExit 17/US-45S Austin Blvd7:00 AM14.357 20Los Angeles,CAI-405 NBWilshire BlvdSepulveda Blvd5:00 PM14.156 20Portland,ORI-5 NBI-405Lewis and Clark Hwy4:00 PM14.156 22San Francisco,CACaldecott Tunnel EBFish Ranch RdPleasant Hill Rd4:00 PM14.056 23Concord,CACA-24 EBCamino PabloI-6804:00 PM13.353 24Orlando,FLJohn Young Pkwy SBVine StPleasant Hill Rd5:00 PM13.052 25Los Angeles,CAI-605 SBExit 19/CA-60Imperial Hwy4:00 PM12.951 INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD18EUROPE ANALYSIS&RANKINGEuropean cities place amongst the slowest globally due to the vast majority of their growth occurring prior to widespread adoption of the automobile.Dense cores,narrow roads and complex road networks make these cities ill-suited for car-based mobility.Last years number one,London,and number two,Paris,took the top spots in the European ranking again this year,with drivers losing 156 and 138 hours in congestion,respectively.Most urban areas in Europe were still significantly below pre-COVID levels in terms of traffic delay,with just 7 of the top 25 exceeding 2019s level of congestion.Of the 593 urban areas analyzed in Europe,249,or 42%,have reached or exceeded their pre-COVID levels of traffic congestion,leaving 344 still below 2019 levels.Yet London and Berlin,both capital cities,continue to sit above their pre-COVID level of delay,at 5%and 8%,respectively.2019s number one-ranked Rome,Italy,drops a spot to number 5,seeing no increase in traffic congestion over last year.The UK hosted 6 urban areas in the Top 25,France had 4,and Italy and Poland each had 3.INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD192022 EU Rank(2021 EU Rank)Urban AreaCountry2022 Delay per Driver(hours)Change from 2021Change from Pre-COVIDDowntown Speed(mph)Change in Downtown Speed1(1)LondonUK1565%5-10%2(2)ParisFRA138-1%-160%3(6)PalermoITA12111%-12%5(12)DublinIRL11428%-26-8%6(5)RomeITA1070%-36-8%7(7)IstanbulTUR891%-420%8(3)BrusselsBEL98-27%-300%9(8)BucharestROM91-7%07(9)LyonFRA92-9%-12-10(11)BudapestHUN86-6%-76(32)BristolUK9138%-12-14(23)AthensGRC7811%-270(13)TurinITA86-7%-30-9(21)MarseilleFRA836%2-9(38)ManchesterUK8435%-9-14(18)WroclawPOL80-4%4-7 (25)BerlinDEU719%80!(12)MnchenDEU74-6%-150!(105)GalwayIRL9484%-12-15#(48)BirminghamUK7338%-9-13$(16)PoznanPOL74-14#0%(40)NiceFRA7118%10#(44)BelfastUK7320%-9-6$(23)WarsawPOL643%-100%(47)NottinghamUK7122%-9-7%INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD20The United KingdomAll urban areas in the UK top 10 saw increases in traffic congestion and delays over last year,yet just London was above their 2019,pre-COVID level.Delay per driver in London increased just 5.4%over 2021,while the area experienced a greater recovery than most in the previous Scorecard.With those gains,London still sits atop the UK and the INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard with 156 hours lost per driver to delay,while Chicago in the US sits just below London at 155 hours of delay per driver.The cities of Cambridge,Exeter,and Cheltenham fell out of the top 10,while Edinburgh(7th),Leeds(9th)and Leicester(10th)United Kingdom Findings Time Lost:80 hours,up 7 hours from 2021 Cost to Driver:707,up 112 from 2021 Cost to Country:9.5 billion Fuel Costs:Up 25%Collisions:Up 11%joined the Top 10 in 2022.Traffic congestion overall increased,which could be in part due to light commercial vehicles(LCV)and heavy goods vehicles(HGV)on UK roads.Comparing each day in 2022 to its comparable pre-COVID day,LCV use was higher 95%of days,while HGV use was more on 88%of days.xxviThe typical driver in the UK lost 80 hours due to traffic congestion last year,up 7 hours from last year but down 35 hours from 2019,costing drivers an average of 707 in lost time.Thats in addition to the extra cost of fuel,which INRIX calculated on page 6.A driver commuting in London pays an extra 212($278 USD)this year for fuel,while the average driver in Birmingham pays about 182($238 USD)more this year to commute.The typical driver throughout the entire UK paid about 122($160 USD)more to commute.Traffic congestion cost the UK 9.5 billion in 2021,with 60%of that cost attributed to Londons congestion.Out of the 110 urban areas analyzed in the UK,79 have met or exceeded their pre-COVID levels of delay.2022 UK Rank(2021 Rank)Urban Area2022 Delay(2021)Compared to Pre-COVID2022 Cost per Driver2022 Cost per CityCity Center Speed(mph)Change in City Center Speed1(1)London156(148)5%1,3775.7 B10-9%2(3)Bristol91(66)-125175 M14-13%3(6)Manchester84(62)-9t2191 M14-13%4(8)Birmingham73(53)-9d6346 M16-11%5(7)Belfast72(60)-36c6102 M16-6%6(9)Nottingham71(58)-9b597 M14-7%7(21)Edinburgh67(45)-32Y3150 M16-6%8(10)Hull68(56)-9474 M160%9(13)Leeds60(50)-9S0196 M16-6(12)Leicester62(53)-15U192 M16-6%INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD21Top 5 Worst Corridors in LondonLondon holds most of the top corridors for traffic delays in the UK,with 4 out of the top 5.In general,delays on Londons worst corridors increased over last year.In 2021,A503 East from Camden High Street to B152 St Anns Road held the top spot at 42 hours lost annually.This year,A219,from Fulham Road to Morden Hall Road takes the top spot at 47 hours lost for those who take the corridor.Rank Urban AreaRoad NameFromToPeak Hour2022 Peak Minutes Lost2022 Hours Lost1BirminghamA45 EBBordesley CircusHenry Rd4:00 PM9372LeedsA6177 SBBolton RdGreat Horton Rd4:00 PM8343BirminghamA435 SBHaden CircusWynfield Gardens4:00 PM7334EdinburghA902 WBGreat Junction StHillhouse Rd4:00 PM7305LeedsA65 SBPark RoadWhite Horse Roundabout4:00 PM7306SheffieldA61 NBMoore Street RoundaboutBradfield Rd4:00 PM7297BirminghamA45 WBHobs Moat RdBordesley Circus4:00 PM7288BirminghamA34 SBCamp Hill CircusHamlet Rd5:00 PM7289BristolA4174 NBHicks Gate RoundaboutBromley Heath Roundabout5:00 PM72810EdinburghA702 SBBrougham StCity of Edinburgh Bypass4:00 PM727Top 10 Worst Corridors in the U.K.(outside of London)RankUrban AreaRoad NameFromToPeak Hour2022 Peak Minutes Lost2022 Hours Lost1LondonA219 SBFulham RdMorden Hall Rd5:00 PM12472LondonA202 EBNeathouse PlPeckham Hill St5:00 PM11453LondonA406 EBFalloden WayBowes Rd4:00 PM11424LondonA24 SBThe AvenueMerton High St4:00 PM10385LondonA205 EBNorwood RdRavensbourne Rd4:00 PM936INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD22GermanyIn 2022,Germany re-emerged toward its pre-COVID level of travel.Yet certain measures by the government lessened the burden on most travelers.During the summer,German officials passed the 2.5 billion “Energy Cost Relief Package,”which included fuel subsidies and a 9 per month train ticket program,allowing regional and local travelers across the country unlimited travel for a subsidized fee.The subsidized fuel price allowed drivers to travel without the large price increases seen in neighboring European countries.For example,a driver commuting in London paid about 212($278 USD)more for petrol in 2022 than in 2021,but a Germany Findings Time Lost:40 hours,up 0 hours from 2021 Cost to Driver:399,up 28 from 2021 Cost to Country:3.9 Billion Fuel Costs:Up 5%Collisions:Up 5%commuter in Berlin paid about 51 ($57 USD)more.Berlin topped the list for Impact Rank in 2022 with 71 hours per driver lost,a 9%increase over 2021s 65 hours lost.Munich(74 hours lost)saw moderate decreases in congestion in 2022,falling from number 1 in 2021 to number 2 in 2022,largely due to above-average congestion in 2021 between late June and early September.In addition to Munich,Cologne and Nuremberg also saw reductions in delay per driver.German drivers in total lost more than 325 million hours to traffic jams in 2022,costing 3.9 billion in lost time.The typical German driver lost 40 hours in congestion,the same as 2021,yet lost 28 more in the value of lost time due to inflation.Though average driver delay remained flat,delays were still down from their 2019-high of 46 hours lost per driver.2022 Germany Rank(2021 Rank)Urban Area2022 Delay(2021)Compared to Pre-COVIDCost per DriverCost per CityDowntown Speed(Last Mile,MPH)Change in Downtown Speed1(2)Berlin71(65)8q4 963 M 140%2(1)Mnchen74(79)-15t6 390 M 110%3(4)Hamburg56(47)17V9 372 M 15-6%4(7)Potsdam55(46)57U6 35 M 160%5(10)Leipzig46(40)38F0 92 M 160%6(22)Darmstadt47(37)31G2 27 M 160%7(12)Freiburg43(40)23C5 36 M 150%8(5)Kln38(42)-787 148 M 170%9(13)Bremen40(37)899 79 M 16-6Nrnberg40(41)-599 74 M 160%INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD23Top 10 Worst Corridors in GermanyIn Germany,worst corridors were mostly concentrated in Berlin,holding 3 spots in the top 10.Yet the most congested corridor was in Munich,where drivers on the B2R Northbound from Stettnerstrae to Plinganserstrae at 5:00 PM lost 51 hours last year if they commuted on that stretch of the B2R.Though Munich held just one spot in the top 10,Berlins corridors ranked 5th,6th,and 7th.Hamburg and Cologne urban areas held two spots on the top 10(2nd and 8th&3rd and 4th,respectively).Corridors in Kiel,Hannover,Dusseldorf and Frankfurt,which made the top 10 in 2021,fell from the list in 2022,while Cologne and Hamburg joined.The number of hours lost on Germanys worst corridors continued to increase.For example,in 2021 the B2R Mittlerer Ring from Petuelring to Heimeranplatz ranked the highest at 27 hours lost if a driver took that corridor every workday for the year.Yet in 2022,a driver on another corridor also located mostly on the Mittlerer Ring,would spend 51 hours if taken every day to work.Additionally,the most congested morning commute route was in Berlin,on the A1/B5 Westbound from Myslowitzer Strae to Samariterstrae the only morning commute listed in the top 10.RankUrban AreaRoad NameFromToPeak Hour2022 Peak Minutes Lost2022 Hours Lost1MnchenB2R NBStettnerstraePlinganserstrae5:00 PM13512HamburgA7 SBHH-VolksparkHH-Waltershof4:00 PM10403KlnA3 NBDreieck Kln-HeumarKreuz Leverkusen4:00 PM9384KlnAA59 SBDreieck Kln-HeumarExit Troisdorf4:00 PM9375BerlinA1/B5 WBMyslowitzer Strae Samariterstrae7:00 AM8336BerlinB96 NBRoedernalleeBieselheider Weg4:00 PM8327BerlinA100 EBHohenzollerndammA1034:00 PM8328HamburgRing 2 SBSchwalbenplatzSievekingsallee4:00 PM8319BonnA565 NBRulandswegA5554:00 PM83010WiesbadenA3 NBMnchhof-DreieckWiesbaden/Niedernhausen4:00 PM830INRIX RESEARCH|INTELLIGENCE THAT MOVES THE WORLD24CONCLUSION&COMMENTARYJust as most countries,states,cities,and towns completely lifted most mandates on social gatherings and events and as companies opened their doors to employees the economic fallout from a weakened supply chain,soaring energy and&oil prices,a war in Europe,and general inflationary pressure rippled through most of the western world.Yet despite those challenges,Vehicle-Miles Traveled,or amount people drive,largely stayed the same or even increased in certain urban areas and countries.However,congestion has been generally increasing,as traffic patterns begin to look more like they did in 2019 than in 2021.The AM peak period continued to grow into the more traditional peak,as opposed to a gradual increase in traffic throughout the day.Trips to Downtown have generally increased from 2021,yet downtown city centers continue to lag pre-COVID levels as office space vacancies continued to be stubbornly elevated and small businesses struggled with a lack of workers flooding office buildings.In the US,urban areas like Chicago and Miami saw significantly increased traffic congestion over last year.In the UK,London continued its reign at the top of the Global Traffic Scorecard Impact Rank as the UK continues to see more light commercial vehicles and heavy goods vehicles than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.In Germany,the energy package reduced the cost of travel in general,both on rail and for fuel,reducing the burden fuel prices and alternatives to driving place on the traveling public.Energy markets are hard to predict.Large scale energy infrastructure projects can take decades to build and often face strong political opposition no matter the energy source.In lieu of that,governments generally looked toward reducing demand for energy,with varying degrees of success or failure.Its likely higher-than-normal oil prices continue through 2023.Additionally,Bloomberg Economics gives a 100%chance of a recession in the US within a year,which may put downward pressure on travel.In the 2021 Global Traffic Scorecard,INRIX Research stated that it expects“growth in VMT,especially in the US,to remain low,with a gradual increase over the coming years.”It largely expects the same for 2023,yet VMT may trend into negative territory should a recession strongly take hold.25REFERENCESi.“Why Office Buildings Are Still in Trouble,”The New York Times,November 17,2022,by Peter Eavis,Julie Creswell and Joe Rennison,at https:/ Safety Facts,Crash Stats;Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Half(January June)of 2022,”National Traffic Safety Administration,September 2022,at https:/crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813376.iii.“Reported road casualties Great Britain,annual report:2021,”GOV.UK,September 29,2022,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-great-britain-annual-report-2021/reported-road-casualties-great-britain-annual-report-2021.iv.“Monthly Module Adjusted Data Release,”National Transit Database,FTA,at transit.dot.gov/ntd/ntd-datav.Ibid.vi.“Transport use during the coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic,GOV.UK,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.vii.“Number of bus and rail passengers up by just over a third in the 1sthalf of 2022,”DESTATIS,September 21,2022 at https:/www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/09/PE22_401_461.html;jsessionid=9BAF51ADB56FBB511694CD20FE1CB4E7.live712.viii.“Transport use during the coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic,GOV.UK,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.ix.Bike counters accessed:Germany:Berlin at https:/www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radverkehr/weitere-radinfrastruktur/zaehlstellen-und-fahrradbarometer/karte/;Cologne at https:/data.eco- at https:/data.eco- Counters,”Seattle Department of Transportation,accessed November 28,2022,at https:/www.seattle.gov/transportation/projects-and-programs/programs/bike-program/bike-counters.Counters analyzed:Fremont Bridge,Spokane St.,2nd Ave,Burke-Gilman,W 58th St Greenway,and Elliott Bay Trail.Other counters did not have 2022 data available;and“Annual Comparison by Month Dashboard,”San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency,accessed November 28,2022,at https:/ Automated Bicycle and Pedestrian Counters,”at https:/ddot.dc.gov/page/dc-automated-bicycle-and-pedestrian-counters;and“Citi Bike Keeps Breaking Its Own Ridership Records in NYC,”B,September 27,2022,at https:/ and Diesel Fuel Update,U.S.Regular Gasoline Prices,”U.S.Energy Information Administration,at https:/www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.xii.US:“Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update,U.S.Regular Gasoline Prices,”U.S.Energy Information Administration,at https:/www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/;UK:“Weekly road fuel prices,”Department for Business,Energy&Industrial Strategy,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-road-fuel-prices;and DE:“Consumer prices of petroleum products:Germany,”CountryE,at https:/ Community Survey,Table B08301,Means of Transportation to Work,”ACS 2019 and 2021 1-year estimates,US Census Bureau,at data.census.gov.xiv.“Is hybrid working here to stay?,”Office for National Statistics,May 23,2022,at https:/www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/ishybridworkingheretostay/2022-05-23.xv.“Traffic Safety Facts,Crash Stats;Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Half(January June)of 2022,”National Traffic Safety Administration,September 2022,at https:/crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813376.xvi.“Reported road collisions,vehicles and casualties tables for Great Britain,”Department for Transport,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/reported-road-accidents-vehicles-and-casualties-tables-for-great-britain.xvii.“Provisional in-year statistics on reported road casualties,”Department for Transport,November 24,2022 at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/ras45-quarterly-statistics.xviii.“Number of traffic accident fatalities expected to increase significantly to roughly 2,790 in 2022,”DESTATIS,December 5,2022,at https:/www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Traffic-Accidents/_node.html.xix.“Monthly Module Adjusted Data Release,”National Transit Database,FTA,at transit.dot.gov/ntd/ntd-data.Due to lagging data reporting,periods analyzed were January through September,2019-2022.“Downtown trips lag metro area recoveries,results in less traffic congestion and transit ridership,”INRIX,March 2021,at https:/ use during the coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic,”GOV.uk,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic;and“Number of bus and rail passengers up by just over a third in the 1sthalf of 2022,”DESTATIS,September 21,2022,a.https:/www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/09/PE22_401_461.html.xxi.UK:Ibid.Germany:Berlin at https:/www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radverkehr/weitere-radinfrastruktur/zaehlstellen-und-fahrradbarometer/karte/;Cologne at https:/data.eco- at https:/data.eco- Counters,”Seattle Department of Transportation,accessed November 28,2022,at https:/www.seattle.gov/transportation/projects-and-programs/programs/bike-program/bike-counters.Counters analyzed:Fremont Bridge,Spokane St.,2nd Ave,Burke-Gilman,W 58th St Greenway,and Elliott Bay Trail.Other counters did not have 2022 data available.xxiii.“Annual Comparison by Month Dashboard,”San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency,accessed November 28,2022,at https:/ Bike Keeps Breaking Its Own Ridership Records in NYC,”B,September 27,2022,at https:/ use during the coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic,GOV.UK,at https:/www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.ABOUT INRIX RESEARCHLaunched in 2016,INRIX Research uses INRIX proprietary big data,analytics and industry expertise to understand the movement of people and goods around the world.We achieve this by leveraging billions of anonymous data points every day from a diverse set of sources on all roads in countries of coverage.Our data provides a rich and fertile picture of mobility that enables INRIX Research to produce valuable and actionable insights for policy makers,transport professionals,automakers,and drivers.INRIX Research has a team in Europe and North America,and is comprised of economists,transportation policy specialists and data scientists with backgrounds in academia,think tanks and commercial research and development groups.We have decades of experience in applying rigorous,cutting-edge methodologies to answer salient,real-world problems.In addition to our research outputs,INRIX research reports and data are a free and valuable resource for journalists,researchers and policymakers.We are able to assist with data,analysis and expert commentary on all aspects of urban mobility and smart cities.Spokespeople are available globally for interviews.NORTH AMERICA 10210 NE Points Drive Suite 400 KirklandWA 98033United States 1 425-284-EMEAStation House Stamford New Road AltrinchamCheshire WA14 1EPEngland 44 161 927 3600
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ft EA United States Environmental Protection,.,Agency The 2022 EPA Automotive Trends Report Greenhouse Gas Emissions,Fuel Economy,and Technology since 1975 EPA-420-R-22-029 December 2022 -This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions,positions,or validation of compliance data reported to EPA by manufacturers.It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available and that may be subject to change.Historic data have been adjusted,when appropriate,to reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other corrections necessary to maintain data integrity.The purpose of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.Table of Contents Introduction.1 A.Whats New This Year.1 B.Manufacturers in this Report.2 C.Fuel Economy and CO2Metrics in this Report.3 Fleetwide Trends Overview.5 Overall Fuel Economy and CO2 Trends.5 Production Trends.8 Manufacturer Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions.9 Vehicle Attributes.14 A.Vehicle Class and Type.14 B.Vehicle Weight.20 C.Vehicle Power.24 D.Vehicle Footprint.29 E.Vehicle Type and Attribute Tradeoffs.32 Vehicle Technology.39 A.Technology Overview.39 B.Vehicle Propulsion.42 C.Vehicle Drivetrain.64 D.Technology Adoption.69 Manufacturer GHG Compliance.78 A.Footprint-Based CO2 Standards.80 B.Model Year Performance.83 C.GHG Program Credits and Deficits.109 D.End of Year GHG Program Credit Balances.119 1.2.3.4.5.A.B.C.Appendices:Methods and Additional Data A.Sources of Input Data B.Harmonic Averaging of Fuel Economy Values C.Fuel Economy and CO2 Metrics D.Historical Changes in the Database and Methodology E.Electric Vehicle and Plug-In Hybrid Metrics F.Authors and Acknowledgments-i List of Figures Figure 2.1.Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions.5 Figure 2.2.Trends in Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions Since Model Year 1975.6 Figure 2.3.Distribution of New Vehicle CO2 Emissions by Model Year.7 Figure 2.4.New Vehicle Production by Model Year.9 Figure 2.5.Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions by Manufacturer.10 Figure 3.1.Regulatory Classes and Vehicle Types Used in This Report.15 Figure 3.2.Production Share and Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy.16 Figure 3.3.Vehicle Type Distribution by Manufacturer for Model Year 2021.17 Figure 3.4.Car-Truck Classification of SUVs with Inertia Weights of 4000 Pounds or Less.18 Figure 3.5.Average New Vehicle Weight by Vehicle Type.21 Figure 3.6.Inertia Weight Class Distribution by Model Year.22 Figure 3.7.Relationship of Inertia Weight and CO2 Emissions.23 Figure 3.8.Average New Vehicle Horsepower by Vehicle Type.25 Figure 3.9.Horsepower Distribution by Model Year.26 Figure 3.10.Relationship of Horsepower and CO2 Emissions.27 Figure 3.11.Calculated 0-to-60 Time by Vehicle Type.28 Figure 3.12.Footprint by Vehicle Type for Model Year 20082021.30 Figure 3.13.Footprint Distribution by Model Year.30 Figure 3.14.Relationship of Footprint and CO2 Emissions.31 Figure 3.15.Relative Change in Fuel Economy,Weight,Horsepower,and Footprint.33 Figure 4.1.Vehicle Energy Flow.39 Figure 4.2.Manufacturer Use of Emerging Technologies for Model Year 2021.41 Figure 4.3.Production Share by Engine Technology.43 Figure 4.4.Gasoline Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders.45 Figure 4.5.Percent Change for Specific Gasoline Engine Metrics.47 Figure 4.6.Engine Metrics for Different Gasoline Technology Packages.49 Figure 4.7.Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type.51 Figure 4.8.Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders.51 Figure 4.9.Distribution of Gasoline Turbo Vehicles by Displacement and Horsepower,Model Year 2011,2014,and 2021.52 Figure 4.10.Non-Hybrid Stop/Start Production Share by Vehicle Type.54 Figure 4.11.Non-Hybrid Stop/Start Production Share by Number of Cylinders.54 Figure 4.12.Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type.55 Figure 4.13.Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders.55 Figure 4.14.Production Share of EVs,PHEVs,and FCVs.58 Figure 4.15.Electric Vehicle Production Share by Vehicle Type.59 Figure 4.16.Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Production Share by Vehicle Type.59 Figure 4.17.Charge Depleting Range and Fuel Economy for EVs and PHEVs.60 Figure 4.18.Diesel Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type.62 -ii Figure 4.19.Diesel Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders.62 Figure 4.20.Percent Change for Specific Diesel Engine Metrics.63 Figure 4.21.Transmission Production Share.66 Figure 4.22.Average Number of Transmission Gears.67 Figure 4.23.Comparison of Manual and Automatic Transmission Real-World Fuel Economy for Comparable Vehicles.68 Figure 4.24.Front-,Rear-,and Four-Wheel Drive Production Share.69 Figure 4.25.Industry-Wide Car Technology Penetration after First Significant Use.71 Figure 4.26.Manufacturer Specific Technology Adoption over Time for Key Technologies.73 Figure 5.1.The GHG Compliance Process.78 Figure 5.2.20122021 Model Year CO2 Footprint Target Curves.80 Figure 5.3.Changes in 2-Cycle Tailpipe CO2 Emissions by Manufacturer.85 Figure 5.4.Model Year 2021 Production of EVs,PHEVs,and FCVs.88 Figure 5.5.Model Year 2021 Advanced Technology Credits by Manufacturer.88 Figure 5.6.HFO-1234yf Adoption by Manufacturer.91 Figure 5.7.Fleetwide A/C Credits by Credit Type.93 Figure 5.8.Total A/C Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2021.93 Figure 5.9.Off-Cycle Menu Technology Adoption by Manufacturer,Model Year 2021.95 Figure 5.10.Total Off-Cycle Credits by Manufacturer for Model Year 2021.104 Figure 5.11.Performance and Standards by Manufacturer,Model Year 2021.110 Figure 5.12.Early Credits by Manufacturer.116 Figure 5.13.Total Credits Transactions.119 Figure 5.14.Manufacturer Credit Balance After Model Year 2021.122 Figure 5.15.Industry Performance and Standards,Credit Generation and Use.126 List of Tables Table 1.1.Model Year 2021 Manufacturer Definitions.3 Table 1.2.Fuel Economy and CO2 Metrics Used in this Report.4 Table 2.1.Production,Estimated Real-World CO2,and Fuel Economy for Model Year 19752022.11 Table 2.2.Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy,by Year.12 Table 2.3.Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions for Model Year 20202022.13 Table 3.1.Vehicle Attributes by Model Year.34 Table 3.2.Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Vehicle Type.35 Table 3.3.Model Year 2021 Vehicle Attributes by Manufacturer.36 Table 3.4.Model Year 2021 Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Manufacturer and Vehicle Type.37 Table 3.5.Footprint by Manufacturer for Model Year 20202022(ft2).38 Table 4.1.Production Share by Powertrain.74 -iii Table 4.2.Production Share by Engine Technologies.75 Table 4.3.Production Share by Transmission Technologies.76 Table 4.4.Production Share by Drive Technology.77 Table 5.1.Manufacturer Footprint and Standards for Model Year 2021.82 Table 5.2.Production Multipliers by Model Year.87 Table 5.3.Model Year 2021 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from the Menu,by Manufacturer and Technology(g/mi).100 Table 5.4.Model Year 2021 Off-Cycle Technology Credits from an Alternative Methodology,by Manufacturer and Technology(g/mi).103 Table 5.5.Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2021,All(g/mi).106 Table 5.6.Industry Performance by Model Year,All(g/mi).106 Table 5.7.Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2021,Car(g/mi).107 Table 5.8.Industry Performance by Model Year,Car(g/mi).107 Table 5.9.Manufacturer Performance in Model Year 2021,Truck(g/mi).108 Table 5.10.Industry Performance by Model Year,Truck(g/mi).108 Table 5.11.Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2021,All.112 Table 5.12.Total Credits Earned in Model Years 20092021,All.112 Table 5.13.Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2021,Car.113 Table 5.14.Total Credits Earned in Model Years 20092021,Car.113 Table 5.15.Credits Earned by Manufacturers in Model Year 2021,Truck.114 Table 5.16.Total Credits Earned in Model Years 20092021,Truck.114 Table 5.17 Credit Expiration Schedule.117 Table 5.18.Example of a Deficit Offset with Credits from Previous Model Years.120 Table 5.19.Final Credit Balance by Manufacturer for Model Year 2021(Mg).123 Table 5.20.Distribution of Credits by Expiration Date(Mg).124 -iv Introduction This annual report is part of the U.S.Environmental Protection Agencys(EPA)commitment to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,fuel economy,technology data,and auto manufacturers performance in meeting the agencys GHG emissions standards.EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United States since 1975,either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle Fuel and Emissions Laboratory in Ann Arbor,Michigan,or directly from manufacturers using official EPA test procedures.These data are collected to support several important national programs,including EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards,the U.S.Department of Transportations National Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA)Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE)standards,and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment labels.This expansive data set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry since 1975.A.Whats New This Year This report is updated each year to reflect the most recent data available to EPA for all model years,relevant regulatory changes,methodology changes,and any other changes relevant to the auto industry.These changes can affect multiple model years;therefore,this version of the report supersedes all previous reports.Significant developments relevant for this edition of the report include:In December 2021,EPA finalized revised light-duty GHG standards for model years 2023-2026 and in March 2022 NHTSA subsequently published revised fuel economy standards for model years 2024-2026.In March 2022,EPA also restored Californias waiver to enforce greenhouse gas standards for cars and light trucks.This report has been updated to reflect these changes where relevant.Electric vehicles continue to increase market share and are expected to continue growing in popularity.The technology,fuel economy,and emissions of electric vehicles are fundamentally different than their internal combustion counterparts.Increasing vehicle electrification may require rethinking many of the metrics and methods used in this report.While no significant changes were made this year,EPA is evaluating the best metrics and methods to explain these ongoing trends and technologies for future reports.1.-1 This report shows projected model year 2022 data,much of which was provided to EPA by manufacturers in calendar year 2021.Given the impacts of COVID-19 and ongoing worldwide supply chain issues,and their associated impacts on the automobile industry,the projected model year 2022 data may change significantly before being finalized.EPA continues to update detailed data from this report,including all years of the light-duty GHG standards,to the EPA Automotive Trends website.We encourage readers to visit https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends and explore the data.EPA will continue to add content and tools on the web to allow transparent access to public data.B.Manufacturers in this Report The underlying data for this report include every new light-duty vehicle offered for sale in the United States.These data are presented by manufacturer throughout this report,using model year 2021 manufacturer definitions determined by EPA and NHTSA for implementation of the GHG emission standards and CAFE program.For simplicity,figures and tables in the executive summary and in Sections 1-4 show only the top 14 manufacturers,by production.These manufacturers produced at least 150,000 vehicles each in the 2021 model year and accounted for more than 98%of all production.The compliance discussion in Section 5 includes all manufacturers,regardless of production volume.Table 1.1 lists all manufacturers that produced vehicles in the U.S.for model year 2021,including their associated makes,and their categorization for this report.Only vehicle brands produced in model year 2021 are shown in this table;however,this report contains data on many other manufacturers and brands that have produced vehicles for sale in the U.S.since 1975.When a manufacturer grouping changes under the GHG and CAFE programs,EPA applies the new manufacturer definitions to all prior model years for the analysis of estimated real-world CO2 emission and fuel economy trends in Sections 1 through 4 of this report.This maintains consistent manufacturer and make definitions over time,which enables better identification of long-term trends.However,the compliance data that are discussed in Section 5 of this report maintain the previous manufacturer definitions where necessary to preserve the integrity of compliance data as accrued.-2 Table 1.1.Model Year 2021 Manufacturer Definitions Manufacturer Makes in the U.S.Market LargeManufacturers BMW Ford GM Honda Hyundai Kia Mazda Mercedes Nissan Stellantis Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen(VW)BMW,Mini,Rolls Royce Ford,Lincoln,Roush,Shelby Buick,Cadillac,Chevrolet,GMC Acura,Honda Genesis,Hyundai Kia Mazda Maybach,Mercedes Infiniti,Nissan Alfa Romeo,Chrysler,Dodge,Fiat,Jeep,Maserati,Ram Subaru Tesla Lexus,Toyota Audi,Bentley,Bugatti,Lamborghini,Porsche,Volkswagen Other Manufacturers Jaguar Land Rover Mitsubishi Volvo Karma Aston Martin*Ferrari*McLaren*Jaguar,Land Rover Mitsubishi Lotus,Polestar,Volvo Karma Aston Martin Ferrari McLaren*Small Volume Manufacturers C.Fuel Economy and CO2 Metrics in this Report All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2021 are final and based on official data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process.In some cases,this report will show data for model year 2022,which are preliminary and based on data provided to EPA by automakers prior to the model year,including projected production volumes.All data in this report are based on production volumes delivered for sale in the U.S.by model year.The model year production volumes may vary from other publicized data based on calendar year sales.The report does not examine future model years,and past performance does not necessarily predict future industry trends.The carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of two categories based on the purpose of the data and the subsequent required emissions test procedures.The first category is compliance data,which is measured using laboratory -3 tests required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance.Compliance data are measured using EPA city and highway test procedures(the“2-cycle”tests),and fleetwide averages are calculated by weighting the city and highway test results by 55%and 45%,respectively.These procedures are required for compliance;however,they no longer accurately reflect real-world driving.Compliance data may also encompass optional performance credits and adjustments that manufacturers can use towards meeting their emissions standards.The second category is estimated real-world data,which is measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider range of operating conditions(including hot and cold weather,higher speeds,and faster accelerations)encountered by an average driver.This expanded set of tests is referred to as“5-cycle”testing.City and highway results are weighted 43%city and 57%highway,consistent with fleetwide driver activity data.The city and highway values are the same values found on new vehicle fuel economy labels,however the label combined value is weighted 55%city and 45%highway.Unlike compliance data,the method for calculating real-world data has evolved over time,along with technology and driving habits.Table 1.2.Fuel Economy and CO2 Metrics Used in this Report CO2 and Fuel Economy Data Category Purpose Current City/Highway Weighting Current Test Basis Compliance Basis for manufacturer compliance with standards 55%/45%2-cycle Estimated Real-World Best estimate of real-world performance 43%/57%5-cycle This report will show estimated real-world data except for the discussion specific to the GHG regulations in Section 5 and Executive Summary Figures ES-6 through ES-8.The compliance CO2 data must not be compared to the real-world CO2 data presented elsewhere in this report.Appendices C and D present a more detailed discussion of the fuel economy and CO2 data used in this report.This report does not provide data about NHTSAs CAFE program.For more information about CAFE and manufacturer compliance with the CAFE fuel economy standards,see the CAFE Public Information Center,which can be accessed at https:/one.nhtsa.gov/cafe_pic/CAFE_PIC_Home.htm.-4 Fleetwide Trends Overview The automotive industry continues to make progress towards lower tailpipe CO2 emissions and higher fuel economy in recent years.This section provides an update on the estimated real-world tailpipe CO2 emissions and fuel economy for the overall fleet,and for manufacturers based on final model year 2021 data.The unique,historical data on which this report is based also provide an important backdrop for evaluating the more recent performance of the industry.Using that data,this section will also explore basic fleetwide trends in the automotive industry since EPA began collecting data in model year 1975.Overall Fuel Economy and CO2 Trends In model year 2021,the average Figure 2.1.Estimated Real-World estimated real-world CO2 emission Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions rate for all new vehicles fell by 2 g/mi to 347 g/mi,the lowest ever measured.Real-world fuel economy remained at a record high 25.4 mpg.1Since model year 2004,CO2emissions have decreased 25%,or 114 g/mi,and fuel economy has increased 32%,or 6.1 mpg.Over that time,CO2 emissions have improved in fourteen of seventeen years.The trends in CO2 emissions and fuel economy since 1975 are shown in Figure 2.1.Preliminary data suggest that CO2 emissions and fuel economy in model year 2022 will improve from the levels achieved in 2021.The preliminary model year 2022 data 1 EPA generally uses unrounded values to calculate values in the text,figures,and tables in this report.This approach results in the most accurate data but may lead to small apparent discrepancies due to rounding.&N Real-World Fuel Economy(MPG)Real-World CO2 Emissions(g/mi)25.4 MPGMY 2021347g/miMY 20215 25.4 MPGMY 2021197519851995200520152025162024Model Year347g/miMY 2021600400500are based on production estimates provided to EPA by manufacturers months before the vehicles go on sale.The data are a useful indicator,however there is always uncertainty associated with such projections,and we caution the reader against focusing only on these data.Projected data are shown in Figure 2.1 as a dot because the values are based on manufacturer projections rather than final data.While the most recent annual changes often receive the most public attention,the greatest value of the Trends database is to document long-term trends.The magnitude of changes in annual CO2 emissions and fuel economy tend to be small relative to longer,multi-year trends.Figure 2.2 shows fleetwide estimated real-world CO2 emissions and fuel economy for model years 19752021.Over this timeframe there have been three basic phases:1)a rapid improvement of CO2 emissions and fuel economy between 1975 and 1987,2)a period of slowly increasing CO2 emissions and decreasing fuel economy through 2004,and 3)decreasing CO2 emissions and increasing fuel economy through the current model year.Figure 2.2.Trends in Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions Since Model Year 1975 E-9(/)600 1988 to 2004 2005 to 2021 C 0 14%-25%oo(/)t .E w 500 0 0 C-;:400.!.ro w 0:G 25 a.,E 0 C 20 0(.)w w t:,IL C-;:15 1988 to 2004 2005 to 2021.!. 68%-12% 32%ro w 0:1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Model Year-6 Vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy are inversely related for gasoline and diesel vehicles,but not for electric vehicles.Since gasoline and diesel vehicles have made up the vast majority of vehicle production since 1975,Figure 2.2 shows an inverted,but highly correlated relationship between CO2 emissions and fuel economy.Electric vehicles,which account for a small but growing portion of vehicle production,have zero tailpipe CO2 emissions,regardless of fuel economy(as measured in miles per gallon equivalent,or mpge).If electric vehicles continue to capture a larger market share,the overall relationship between fuel economy and tailpipe CO2 emissions will change.Another way to look at CO2 emissions over time is to examine how the distribution of new vehicle emission rates have changed.Figure 2.3 shows the distribution of real-world tailpipe CO2 emissions for all vehicles produced within each model year.Half of the vehicles produced each year are clustered within a small band around the median CO2 emission rate,as shown in blue.The remaining vehicles show a much wider spread,especially in recent years as the production of electric vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions has increased.The lowest CO2-emitting vehicles have all been hybrids or electric vehicles since the first hybrid was introduced in model year 2000,while the highest CO2-emitting vehicles are generally performance vehicles or large trucks.Figure 2.3.Distribution of New Vehicle CO2 Emissions by Model Year2 Real-World CO2(g/mi)1000 500 0 1975 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 200 0 2 0 0 5 2 010 2 015 2020 2 025 Model Year Top 25%B ot tom 25%Wors t Vehi cl e B est 5P%of Vehicles Worst 5%B est Vehi c l e 2 Electric vehicles prior to 2011 are not included in this figure due to limited data.However,those vehicles were available in small numbers only.-7 It is important to note that the methodology used in this report for calculating estimated real-world fuel economy and CO2 emission values has changed over time to reflect changing vehicle technology and operation.For example,the estimated real-world fuel economy for a 1980s vehicle is somewhat higher than it would be if the same vehicle were being produced today.These changes are small for most vehicles,but larger for very high fuel economy vehicles.See Appendices C and D for a detailed explanation of fuel economy metrics and their changes over time.Production Trends This report is based on the total number of vehicles produced by manufacturers for sale in the United States by model year.Model year is the manufacturers annual production period which includes January 1 of the same calendar year.A typical model year for a vehicle begins in fall of the preceding calendar year and runs until late in the next calendar year.However,model years vary among manufacturers and can occur between Janurary 2 of the preceding calendar year and the end of the calendar year.Model year production data is the most direct way to analyze emissions,fuel economy,technology,and compliance trends because vehicle designs within a model year do not typically change.The use of model year production may lead to some short-term discrepencies with other sources,which typically report calendar year sales;however,sales based on the calendar year generally encompass more than one model year,which complicates any analysis.Since the inception of this report,production of vehicles for sale in the United States has grown about 0.5%year over year,but there have been significant swings up or down in any given model year due to the impact of multiple market forces.For example,in model year 2009 the Great Recession resulted in the lowest model year production since the start of this report,at 9.3 million vehicles.Production rebounded over the next several model years,reaching an all-time high of more than 17 million vehicles in model year 2017.Model year 2020 production fell 15%from the previous year,as the COVID-19 pandemic had wide-ranging impacts on the economy and vehicle production.Production was up slightly in model year 2021,but the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,as well as supply chain disruptions affecting the availability of semiconductors and other components,continue to challenge the industry.Figure 2.4 shows the production trends by model year for model years 1975 to 2021.B.-8 Figure 2.4.New Vehicle Production by Model Year Annual Production(000)20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Model Year C.-Manufacturer Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions Along with the overall industry,most manufacturers have improved new vehicle CO2 emission rates and fuel economy in recent years.Manufacturer trends over the last five years are shown in Figure 2.5.This span covers the approximate length of a vehicle redesign cycle,and it is likely that most vehicles have undergone design changes in this period,resulting in a more accurate depiction of recent manufacturer trends than focusing on a single year.Changes over this time period can be attributed to both vehicle design and changing vehicle production trends.The change in production trends,and the impact on the trends shown in Figure 2.5 are discussed in more detail in the next section.For model year 2021 alone,Teslas all-electric fleet had by far the lowest tailpipe CO2 emissions and highest fuel economy of all large manufacturers.Tesla was followed by a close grouping of Subaru,Kia,Hyundai,Nissan,and Honda.Stellantis had the highest new vehicle average CO2 emissions and lowest fuel economy of the large manufacturers in model year 2021,followed by GM and Ford.Tesla also had the highest overall fuel economy,followed by the close group of Subaru,Kia,Nissan,Hyundai,and Honda.9 Figure 2.5.Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions by Manufacturer -.-1 t._ _-.-,.-1 I.- -II(.II(-.J -.J -l.-f- I -10 300350400450347359413417397414385 389376376334352339349327355301324312315309 31031131831033830931750100150CO2 Emissions(g/mi),2016 202102024283224.725.4SubaruKiaNissanHyundaiHondaMazdaToyotaBMWVWMercedesFordGMStellantisAll Manufacturers21.321.521.622.422.822.923.6 23.626.524.725.825.427.125.027.429.628.228.528.528.828.627.826.228.728.128.8Fuel Economy(MPG),2016 2021608010012096.8123.9TeslaTable 2.1.Production,Estimated Real-World CO2,and Fuel Economy for Model Year 19752022 Model Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Production Re(000)CO2(g/mi)al-World Real-World FE(MPG)10,224 681 13.1 12,334 625 14.2 14,123 590 15.1 14,448 562 15.8 13,882 560 15.9 11,306 466 19.2 10,554 436 20.5 9,732 425 21.1 10,302 426 21.0 14,020 424 21.0 14,460 417 21.3 15,365 407 21.8 14,865 405 22.0 15,295 407 21.9 14,453 415 21.4 12,615 420 21.2 12,573 418 21.3 12,172 427 20.8 13,211 426 20.9 14,125 436 20.4 15,145 434 20.5 13,144 435 20.4 14,458 441 20.1 14,456 442 20.1 15,215 451 19.7 Model Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(prelim)Production Real-World Real-World(000)CO2(g/mi)FE(MPG)16,571 15,605 16,115 15,773 15,709 15,892 15,104 15,276 13,898 9,316 11,116 12,018 13,449 15,198 15,512 16,739 16,278 17,016 16,259 16,139 13,721 13,810 450 19.8 453 19.6 457 19.5 454 19.6 461 19.3 447 19.9 442 20.1 431 20.6 424 21.0 397 22.4 394 22.6 399 22.3 377 23.6 368 24.2 369 24.1 360 24.6 359 24.7 357 24.9 353 25.1 356 24.9 349 25.4 347 25.4 331 26.4 To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.-11 Table 2.2.Manufacturers and Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Economy,by Year Model Year Manufacturer Manufacturer with Highest with Lowest Fuel Economy3 Fuel Economy(mpg)(mpg)Overall Vehicle with Highest Fuel Economy4 Gasoline(Non-Hybrid)Vehicle with Highest Fuel Economy Real-World FE Engine Vehicle(mpg)Type Real-World FE Gasoline Vehicle(mpg)1975 Honda Ford Honda Civic 28.3 Gas Honda Civic 28.3 1980 VW Ford VW Rabbit 40.3 Diesel Nissan 210 36.1 1985 Honda Mercedes GM Sprint 49.6 Gas GM Sprint 49.6 1990 Hyundai Mercedes GM Metro 53.4 Gas GM Metro 53.4 1995 Honda Stellantis Honda Civic 47.3 Gas Honda Civic 47.3 2000 Hyundai Stellantis Honda Insight 57.4 Hybrid GM Metro 39.4 2005 Honda Ford Honda Insight 53.3 Hybrid Honda Civic 35.1 2006 Mazda Ford Honda Insight 53.0 Hybrid Toyota Corolla 32.3 2007 Toyota Mercedes Toyota Prius 46.2 Hybrid Toyota Yaris 32.6 2008 Hyundai Mercedes Toyota Prius 46.2 Hybrid Smart Fortwo 37.1 2009 Toyota Stellantis Toyota Prius 46.2 Hybrid Smart Fortwo 37.1 2010 Hyundai Mercedes Honda FCX 60.2 FCV Smart Fortwo 36.8 2011 Hyundai Mercedes BMW Active E 100.6 EV Smart Fortwo 35.7 2012 Hyundai Stellantis Nissan-i-MiEV 109.0 EV Toyota iQ 36.8 2013 Hyundai Stellantis Toyota IQ 117.0 EV Toyota iQ 36.8 2014 Mazda Stellantis BMW i3 121.3 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 39.5 2015 Mazda Stellantis BMW i3 121.3 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 39.5 2016 Mazda Stellantis BMW i3 121.3 EV Mazda 2 37.1 2017 Honda Stellantis Hyundai Ioniq 132.6 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 41.5 2018 Tesla Stellantis Hyundai Ioniq 132.6 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 41.5 2019 Tesla Stellantis Hyundai Ioniq 132.6 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 41.6 2020 Tesla Stellantis Tesla Model 3 138.6 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 41.6 2021 Tesla Stellantis Tesla Model 3 139.1 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 41.6 2022(prelim)Tesla Stellantis Lucid Air 131.4 EV Mitsubishi Mirage 40.1 3 Manufacturers below the 150,000 threshold for“large”manufacturers are excluded in years they did not meet the threshold.4 Vehicles are shown based on estimated real-world fuel economy as calculated for this report.These values will differ from values found on the fuel economy labels at the time of sale.For more information on fuel economy metrics see Appendix C.-12 Table 2.3.Manufacturer Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 Emissions for Model Year 20202022 MY 2020 Final MY 2021 Final MY 2022 Preliminary Manufacturer Real-World Real-World FE CO2(mpg)(g/mi)FE Change CO2 Change Real-World from Real-World from FE MY 2020 CO2 MY 2020(mpg)(mpg)(g/mi)(g/mi)Real-World Real-World FE CO2(mpg)(g/mi)BMW 25.5 347 25.8 0.3 339-8 25.7 341 Ford 23.0 386 22.9-0.1 385-1 23.0 382 GM 23.0 386 21.6-1.5 414 28 22.2 400 Honda 29.1 305 28.5-0.6 312 6 28.3 315 Hyundai 28.4 312 28.5 0.1 310-2 29.1 302 Kia 27.7 320 28.7 1.0 310-10 28.7 305 Mazda 27.9 319 27.4-0.5 324 6 26.5 335 Mercedes 23.4 379 23.6 0.2 376-3 24.6 359 Nissan 27.9 317 28.6 0.6 311-7 28.0 316 Stellantis 21.3 418 21.3 0.0 417-1 21.6 410 Subaru 28.5 312 28.8 0.3 309-3 28.0 317 Tesla 119.1 0 123.9 4.8 0 0 121.5 0 Toyota 27.0 329 27.1 0.1 327-2 28.0 316 VW 24.9 354 24.7-0.2 352-2 27.7 306 All Manufacturers 25.4 349 25.4 0.0 347-2 26.4 331 To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.-13 Vehicle Attributes Vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy are strongly influenced by vehicle design parameters,including weight,power,acceleration,and size.In general,vehicles that are larger,heavier,and more powerful typically have lower fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions than other comparable vehicles.This section focuses on several key vehicle design attributes that impact CO2 emissions and fuel economy and evaluates the impact of a changing automotive marketplace on overall fuel economy.A.Vehicle Class and Type Manufacturers offer a wide variety of light-duty vehicles in the United States.Under the CAFE and GHG regulations,new vehicles are separated into two distinct regulatory classes,passenger cars and light trucks,and each vehicle class has separate GHG and fuel economy standards5.Vehicles that weigh more than 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight6(GVW)or have four-wheel drive and meet various off-road requirements,such as ground clearance,qualify as light trucks.Vehicles can also qualify as light trucks based on the vehicles functionality as defined in the regulations(for example if the vehicle can transport cargo on an open bed or the cargo carrying volume is more than the passenger carrying volume).Vehicles that do not meet these requirements are considered cars.Pickup trucks,vans,and minivans are classified as light trucks under NHTSAs regulatory definitions,while sedans,coupes,and wagons are generally classified as cars.Sport utility vehicles(SUVs)can fall into either category depending on the relevant attributes of the specific vehicle.Based on the CAFE and GHG regulatory definitions,most two-wheel drive SUVs under 6,000 pounds GVW are classified as cars,while most SUVs that have four-wheel drive or are above 6,000 pounds GVW are considered trucks.SUV models that are less than 6,000 pounds GVW can have both car and truck variants,with two-wheel drive versions classified as cars and four-wheel drive versions classified as trucks.As the fleet has changed over time,the line drawn between car and truck classes has also evolved.This report uses the current regulatory car and truck definitions,and these changes have been propagated back throughout the historical data.5 Passenger vehicles(cars)and light trucks(trucks)are defined by regulation in EPAs 40 CFR 86.1818-12 which references the Department of Transportations 49 CFR 523.4-523.5.6 Gross vehicle weight is the combined weight of the vehicle,passengers,and cargo of a fully loaded vehicle.3.-14 This report further separates the car and truck regulatory classes into five vehicle type categories based on their body style classifications under the fuel economy labeling program.The regulatory car class is divided into two vehicle types:sedan/wagon and car SUV.The sedan/wagon vehicle type includes minicompact,subcompact,compact,midsize,large,and two-seater cars,hatchbacks,and station wagons.Vehicles that are SUVs under the labeling program and cars under the CAFE and GHG regulations are classified as car SUVs in this report.The truck class is divided into three vehicle types:pickup,minivan/van,and truck SUV.Vehicles that are SUVs under the labeling program and trucks under the CAFE and GHG regulations are classified as truck SUVs.Figure 3.1 shows the two regulatory classes and five vehicle types used in this report.The distinction between these five vehicle types is important because different vehicle types have different design objectives,and different challenges and opportunities for improving fuel economy and reducing CO2 emissions.Figure 3.1.Regulatory Classes and Vehicle Types Used in This Report Fuel Economy and CO2 by Vehicle Type The production volume of the different vehicle types has changed significantly over time.Figure 3.2 shows the production shares of each of the five vehicle types since model year 1975.The overall new vehicle market continues to move away from the sedan/wagon vehicle type towards a combination of truck SUVs,car SUVs,and pickups.Sedan/wagons were the dominant vehicle type in 1975,when more than 80%of vehicles produced were sedan/wagons.Since then,their production share has generally been falling,reaching a Vehicles Regulatory Class Car Truck Vehicle Type Sedan/Wagon CarSUV Truck SUV MinivanNan-15 new low in model year 2021 at only 26%of all production,or far less than half of the market share they held in model year 1975.Vehicles that could be classified as a car SUV or truck SUV were a very small part of the production share in 1975 but now account for more than half of all new vehicles produced.In model year 2021,truck SUVs reached a record high 45%of production.Car SUVs reached a record high of 13%of production in model year 2020 and account for 11%of production in model year 2021.The production share of pickups has fluctuated over time,peaking at 19%in 1994 and then falling to 10%in 2012.Pickups have generally increased in recent years and accounted for 16%of the market in model year 2021.Minivan/vans captured less than 5%of the market in 1975,increased to 11%in model year 1995 but have fallen since to 2%of vehicle production in model year 2021.The projected 2022 data shows a vehicle type distribution that is similar to model year 2021.In model year 2021,the regulatory truck class reached the highest percentage of production on record,at 63%,and experienced the largest shift towards trucks observed since 1975.Trucks increased from 56%to 63%of production in model year 2021.In Figure 3.2,the dashed line between the car SUVs and truck SUVs shows the split in car and truck regulatory class.Figure 3.2.Production Share and Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy 100rsTrucks Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Model Year Production Share 75P%0%Figure 3.2 also shows estimated real-world fuel economy for each vehicle type since 1975.All five vehicle types are at record low CO2 emissions and record high fuel economy in lI l=,1.i1 l=,I L,_.,.1 16 197519851995200520152025101520253035101520253035101520253035101520253035101520253035Real-World MPGPickupVanMinivanSUVTruckSUVCarWagonSedanCarsTrucksModel Year19.327.324.131.032.2 1-I-I model year 2021.Minivan/Vans increased fuel economy by 3.9 mpg,car SUVs by 2.6 mpg,sedan/wagons by 0.5 mpg,truck SUVs by 0.3 mpg,and pickups increased fuel economy by 0.1 mpg.All of the vehicle types,except for pickups,now achieve fuel economy more than double what they achieved in 1975.In the preliminary model year 2022 data(shown as a dot on Figure 3.2),four of the five vehicle types are expected to improve fuel economy and one,minivans/vans,is projected to decrease from model year 2021.Overall fuel economy trends depend on the trends within the five vehicle types,but also on the market share of each of the vehicle types.The trend away from sedan/wagons,which remain the vehicle type with the highest fuel economy and lowest CO2 emissions,and towards vehicle types with lower fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions,has offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would have been achieved from the improvements within each vehicle type.Vehicle Type by Manufacturer The model year 2021 production breakdown by vehicle type for each manufacturer is shown in Figure 3.3.There are clear variations in production distribution by manufacturer.Nissan had the highest production of sedan/wagons at 57%.For other vehicle types,Tesla had the highest percentage of car SUVs at 46%;Subaru had the highest percentage of truck SUVs at 90%;Ford had the highest percentage of pickups at 38%,and Stellantis had the highest percentage of minivan/vans at 6.4%.Figure 3.3.Vehicle Type Distribution by Manufacturer for Model Year 2021 17 Vehicle TypeSedan/WagonCar SUVTruck SUVMinivan/VanPickup0%Pu0%Production ShareLower average CO2 EmissionsSUV Classification Over the last 30 years,the production share of SUVs in the United States has increased in all but six years and now accounts for more than 55%of all vehicles produced(see Figure 3.2).This includes both the car and truck SUV vehicle types.Based on the regulatory definitions of cars and trucks,SUVs that are less than 6,000 pounds GVW can be classified as either cars or trucks,depending on design requirements such as minimum angles and clearances,and whether the vehicle has 2-wheel drive or 4-wheel drive.This definition can lead to similar vehicles having different car or truck classifications,and different requirements under the GHG and CAFE regulations.One particular trend of interest is the classification of SUVs as either car SUVs or truck SUVs.This report does not track GVW,but instead tracks weight using inertia weight classes,where inertia weight is the weight of the empty vehicle,plus 300 pounds(see weight discussion on the next page).Figure 3.4 shows the breakdown of SUVs into the car and truck categories over time for vehicles with an inertia weight of 4,000 pounds or less.Vehicles in the 4,500-pound inertia weight class and higher were excluded,as these vehicles generally exceed 6,000 pounds GVW and are classified as trucks.The relative percentage of SUVs with an inertia weight of 4,000 pounds or less that meet the current regulatory truck definition increased to 67%in model year 2021,which is the highest percentage of production since at least model year 2000.Projected model year 2022 data shows a slight decrease.Figure 3.4.Car-Truck Classification of SUVs with Inertia Weights of 4000 Pounds or Less Model Year Production Share 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0%uP0r SUV Truck SUV 18 A Closer Look at SUVs -Sedan/wagon market penetration fell 5 percentage points across the industry in model year 2021,with reductions from thirteen out of fourteen large manufacturers.Tesla had the largest change,as sedan/wagons fell from 65%of production in model year 2020 to 47%in model year 2021.Toyota had the second largest change,from 43%of production to 30%,followed by VW,which saw sedan/wagons fall from 40%to 29%of production.All three companies increased their relative production of both car SUVs and truck SUVs.For some manufacturers,changes in the mix of vehicle types they produce has also led to a significant impact on their overall new vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy.Over the last five years,as shown in Figure 2.5,Kia achieved the largest reduction in CO2 emissions,at 29 g/mi.Kia decreased emissions in all vehicle types that they offer and decreased overall emissions even as their truck SUV share increased from 15%to 41%and sedan/wagon share decreased from 53%to 50%.Toyota achieved the second largest reduction in overall CO2 tailpipe emissions,at 28 g/mi,and BMW had the third largest reduction in overall CO2 tailpipe emissions at 10 g/mi.Toyota and BMW also achieved overall emission reductions by improving all vehicle types,even as their truck SUV production share increased.Over the same five-year period,Mazda had the largest increase at 24 g/mi,due to increased CO2 emission rates within their sedan/wagon and car SUV vehicle types,along with a shift in production from 33%to 61%truck SUVs.Volkswagen had the second largest increase at 18 g/mi,as a shift in production from 21%to 66%truck SUVs more than offset emission reductions within each vehicle type.GM had the third largest increase at 17 g/mi,with a production shift towards truck SUVs and pickups and an increase in pickup emission rates more than offsetting emission improvements in all other vehicle types.-19 B.Vehicle Weight Vehicle weight is a fundamental vehicle attribute,both because it can be related to utility functions such as vehicle size and features,and because vehicles with a higher weight,other things being equal,will require more energy to move.For vehicles with an internal combustion engine,this higher energy requirement generally results in more CO2 emissions and decreased fuel economy.For electric vehicles(EVs),the higher energy required to move a vehicle with more weight will likely decrease fuel economy,measured in miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent(mpge),but will not increase CO2 emissions,since EVs do not have tailpipe emissions regardless of the weight of the vehicle.Due to the weight of battery packs,electric vehicles are likely to weigh more than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles and can even result in the vehicle falling under different regulatory requirements.All vehicle weight data in this report are based on inertia weight classes.Each inertia weight class represents a range of loaded vehicle weights,or vehicle curb weights7 plus 300 pounds.Vehicle inertia weight classes are in 250-pound increments for classes below 3,000 pounds,while inertia weight classes over 3,000 pounds are divided into 500-pound increments.Vehicle Weight by Vehicle Type Figure 3.5 shows the average new vehicle weight for all vehicle types since model year 1975.From model year 1975 to 1981,average vehicle weight dropped 21%,from 4,060 pounds per vehicle to about 3,200 pounds;this was likely driven by both increasing fuel economy standards(which,at the time,were universal standards,and not based on any type of vehicle attribute)and higher gasoline prices.From model year 1981 to model year 2004,the trend reversed,and average new vehicle weight began to slowly but steadily climb.By model year 2004,average new vehicle weight had increased 28%from model year 1981 and reached 4,111 pounds per vehicle,in part because of the increasing truck share.Average vehicle weight in model year 2021 was about 4ove 2004 and is currently at the highest point on record,at 4,289 pounds.Preliminary model year 2022 data suggest that weight will continue to increase.In model year 1975,the difference between the heaviest and lightest vehicle types was about 215 pounds,or about 5%of the average new vehicle.By model year 2021,the 7 Vehicle curb weight is the weight of an empty,unloaded vehicle.-20 difference between the heaviest and lightest vehicle types had increased to more than 1,600 pounds,about 38%of the average new vehicle weight.Over that time,the weight of an average new sedan/wagon fell 12%while the weight of an average new pickup increased 30%.In 1975,the average new sedan/wagon outweighed the average new pickup by about 45 pounds,but the different weight trends over time for each of these vehicle types led to a very different result in model year 2021,with the average new pickup outweighing the average new sedan/wagon by more than 1,600 pounds.Pickups are below their model year 2014 high of 5,484 pounds per vehicle,due to vehicle redesigns of popular truck models and the use of weight saving designs,such as aluminum bodies.Figure 3.5.Average New Vehicle Weight by Vehicle Type 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500Weight(lbs)2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 ALL Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup 30%Since MY 1975 7%Since MY 1975 Since MY 1975 6%9%Since MY 1975-12%Since MY 1975-5%Since MY 1975 Model Year Figure 3.6 shows the annual production share of different inertia weight classes for new vehicles since model year 1975.In model year 1975 there were significant sales in all weight classes from 2,750 pounds to 5,500 pounds.In the early 1980s the largest vehicles disappeared from the market,and light cars 2,750 pounds inertia weight briefly captured more than 25%of the market.Since then,cars in the 2,750-pound inertia weight class have all but disappeared,and the market has moved towards heavier vehicles.t t t t-21 Interestingly,the heaviest vehicles in model year 1975 were mostly large cars,whereas the heaviest vehicles today are largely pickups and truck SUVs,along with a few minivan/vans and a small number of luxury sedan/wagons.Figure 3.6.Inertia Weight Class Distribution by Model Year Vehicle Weight and CO2 Emissions Heavier vehicles require more energy to move than lower-weight vehicles and,if all other factors are the same,will have lower fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions.The wide array of technology available in modern vehicles complicates this comparison,but it is still useful to evaluate the relationship between vehicle weight and CO2 emissions,and how these variables have changed over time.Figure 3.7 shows estimated real-world CO2 emissions as a function of vehicle inertia weight for model year 19788 and model year 2020.On average,CO2 emissions increase linearly with vehicle weight for both model years,although the rate of change as vehicles get heavier is different.At lower weights,vehicles from model year 2021 produced about two 8 Model year 1978 was the first year for which complete horsepower data are available,therefore it will be used for several historical comparisons for consistency.00u%Q.),._ Cl.s:(J)C 0 50%.=.u:l O 0,._ 0.25%075 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Model Year Weight 6000-22 D I I I I thirds of the CO2 emissions of 1978 vehicles.The difference between model year 2021 and 1978 increases for heavier vehicles,as the heaviest model year 2021 vehicles produce about half of the CO2 emissions of 1978 vehicles.Figure 3.7.Relationship of Inertia Weight and CO2 Emissions Model Year 1978 2021 Real-World CO2(g/mi)0 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Inertia Weight(lbs)Electric vehicles,which do not produce any tailpipe CO2 emissions regardless of weight,are visible along the 0 g/mi axis of Figure 3.7.As more electric vehicles are introduced into the market,the relationship between average vehicle CO2 emissions and inertia weight will continue to evolve.23 C.Vehicle Power Vehicle power,measured in horsepower(hp),has changed dramatically since model year 1975.In the early years of this report,horsepower fell,from an average of 137 hp in model year 1975 to 102 hp in model year 1981.Since model year 1981,however,horsepower has increased almost every year.The average new vehicle in model year 2021 produced 85%more power than a new vehicle in model year 1975,and 148%more power than an average new vehicle in model year 1981.The average new vehicle horsepower is at a record high,increasing from 246 hp in model year 2020 to 253 hp in model year 2021.The preliminary value for model year 2022 is 272 hp,which would be another record-high for horsepower.Many EVs have high hp ratings,however determining vehicle horsepower for EVs and PHEVs can be more complicated than for vehicles with internal combustion engines.The power available at the wheels of an EV may be limited by numerous electrical components other than the motor.In addition,some EVs have multiple motors and the total available power may be less than the sum of the individual motor ratings.PHEVs,which have an internal combustion engine,at least one motor,and complicated control strategies,can be even more complicated to accurately assign one static power value.Therefore,horsepower values for the increasing number of EVs and PHEVs are more difficult to determine and may have higher uncertainty.Vehicle Power by Vehicle Type As with weight,the changes in horsepower are also different among vehicle types,as shown in Figure 3.8.Horsepower for sedan/wagons increased 57tween model year 1975 and 2021,74%for truck SUVs,90%for car SUVs,58%for minivan/vans,and 139%for pickups.Horsepower has generally been increasing for all vehicle types since about 1985,but there is more variation between model types in the last decade.The projected model year 2022 data shows a large increase of about 19 hp across all new vehicles.This is due in part to the projected increase of electric vehicles,many of which have high horsepower ratings.The projected data shown horsepower increases for all vehicle types.-24 Figure 3.8.Average New Vehicle Horsepower by Vehicle Type 100 150 200 250 300 350 100 150 200 250 300 350 Horsepower Pickup Minivan/Van Truck SUV Car SUV Sedan/Wagon ALL Since MY 1975 139X%Since MY 1975 74%Since MY 1975 90%Since MY 1975 57%Since MY 1975 Since MY 1975 85%t t t t t t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I-1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Model Year The distribution of horsepower over time has shifted towards vehicles with higher horsepower,as shown in Figure 3.9.While few new vehicles in the early 1980s had greater than 200 hp,the average vehicle in model year 2021 had 253 hp.In addition,vehicles with more than 300 hp make up more than half of new vehicle production,and the maximum horsepower for an individual vehicle is now 1,500 hp.Horsepower is projected to increase again in model year 2022,with 20%of vehicles projected to reach 400 hp or higher.25 Figure 3.9.Horsepower Distribution by Model Year 100uP%080 1990 2000 2010 2020 Model Year Production Share Horsepower 450 400450 350400 300350 250300 200250 150200 100150 50100 Vehicle Power and CO2 Emissions The relationship between vehicle power,CO2 emissions,and fuel economy has become more complex as new technology and vehicles have emerged in the marketplace.In the past,higher power generally increased CO2 emissions and decreased fuel economy,especially when new vehicle production relied exclusively on gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines.As shown in Figure 3.10,model year 1978 vehicles with increased horsepower generally had increased CO2 emissions.In model year 2021,CO2 emissions increased with increased vehicle horsepower at a much lower rate than in model year 1978,such that model year 2021 vehicles nearly all had lower CO2 emissions than their model year 1978 counterparts with the same amount of power.Technology improvements,including turbocharged engines and hybrid packages,have reduced the incremental CO2 emissions associated with increased power.Electric vehicles are present along the 0 g/mi line in Figure 3.10 because they produce no tailpipe CO2 emissions,regardless of horsepower,further complicating this analysis for modern vehicles.26-,.f-,111-D -Real-World CO2(g/mi)Figure 3.10.Relationship of Horsepower and CO2 Emissions 1200 900 600 300 Model Year 1978 2021 0 0 500 1000 1500 Horsepower Vehicle Acceleration Vehicle acceleration is closely related to vehicle horsepower.As new vehicles have increased horsepower,the corresponding ability of vehicles to accelerate has also increased.The most common vehicle acceleration metric,and one of the most recognized vehicle metrics overall,is the time it takes a vehicle to accelerate from 0 to 60 miles per hour,also called the 0-to-60 time.Data on 0-to-60 times are not directly submitted to EPA but are calculated for most vehicles using vehicle attributes and calculation methods developed by MacKenzie and Heywood(2012).9 The relationship between power and acceleration is different for EVs than for vehicles with internal combustion engines.Electric motors generally have maximum torque available from a standstill,which is not true for internal combustion engines.The result is that EVs 9 MacKenzie,D.Heywood,J.2012.Acceleration performance trends and the evolving relationship among power,weight,and acceleration in U.S.light-duty vehicles:A linear regression analysis.Transportation Research Board,Paper NO 12-1475,TRB 91st Annual Meeting,Washington,DC,January 2012.27 can have very fast 0-60 acceleration times,and the calculation methods used for vehicles with internal combustion engines are not valid for EVs.PHEVs and hybrids may also use their motors to improve acceleration.Acceleration times for EVs,PHEVs,and hybrids must be obtained from external sources,and as with horsepower values,there may be more uncertainty with these values.Since the early 1980s,there has been a clear downward trend in 0-to-60 times.Figure 3.11 shows the average new vehicle 0-to-60 time since model year 1978.The average new vehicle in model year 2021 had a 0-to-60 time of 7.7 seconds,which is the fastest average 0-to-60 time for any model year about half of the average 0-to-60 times of the early 1980s.The calculated 0-to-60 time for model year 2022 is projected to decrease again,to 7.5 seconds.The long-term downward trend in 0-to-60 times is consistent across all vehicle types.The continuing decrease in pickup truck 0-to-60 times is likely due to their increasing power,as shown in Figure 3.8.While much of that power is intended to increase towing and hauling capacity,it also decreases 0-to-60 times.Increasing EV production will likely continue,and perhaps accelerate,the trend towards lower 0-to-60 acceleration times.Figure 3.11.Calculated 0-to-60 Time by Vehicle Type ALL Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Seconds 18 15 12 9 18 15 12 9 Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup-44%Since MY 1978-43%Since MY 1978-43%Since MY 1978-42%Since MY 1978-41%Since MY 1978-48%Since MY 1978 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 20251975 1985 1995 2005 2015 20251975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025-Model Year 28 D.Vehicle Footprint Vehicle footprint is an important attribute since it is the basis for the current CO2 emissions and fuel economy standards.Footprint is the product of wheelbase times average track width(the area defined by where the centers of the tires touch the ground).This report provides footprint data beginning with model year 2008,although footprint data from model years 20082010 were aggregated from various sources and EPA has less confidence in the precision of these data than that of formal compliance data.Beginning in model year 2011,the first year when both car and truck CAFE standards were based on footprint,automakers began to submit reports to EPA with footprint data at the end of the model year,and these official footprint data are reflected in the final data through model year 2021.EPA projects footprint data for the preliminary model year 2022 fleet based on footprint values from the previous model year and,for new vehicle designs,publicly available data.Vehicle Footprint by Vehicle Type Figure 3.12 shows overall new vehicle and vehicle type footprint data since model year 2008.Between model year 2008 and 2021,the overall average footprint increased 5%,from 48.9 to 51.5 square feet.All five vehicle types have increased average footprint since model year 2008.Car SUVs have had the smallest increase in footprint,up 0.6 square feet or 1.3%.The footprint of the average truck SUVs has increased 1.4 square feet,the average minivan/van has increased 1.6 square feet,the average sedan/wagon has increased 1.7 square feet,and the average pickup has increased 2.7 square feet,or 4.3%.The overall increase in footprint is impacted by both the trends within each vehicle type and the changing mix of vehicles over time,as the market has shifted towards larger vehicles.The distribution of footprints across all new vehicles,as shown in Figure 3.13,also shows a slow reduction in the number of smaller vehicles with a footprint of less than 45 square feet,along with growth in larger vehicle categories.This is consistent with the changes in market trends towards larger vehicles,as seen in Figure 3.2 and elsewhere in this report.Projected data for model year 2022 suggest that overall average footprint will increase to 51.7 square feet.-29 30 Figure 3.12.Footprint by Vehicle Type for Model Year 20082021 Figure 3.13.Footprint Distribution by Model Year 0%Pu0%Production Share20082010201220142016201820202022Model YearFootprint6540606555605055455040451000 D 500-Vehicle Footprint and CO2 Emissions The relationship between vehicle footprint and CO2 emissions is shown in Figure 3.14.Vehicles with a larger footprint are likely to weigh more and have more frontal area,which leads to increased aerodynamic resistance.Increased weight and aerodynamic resistance increase CO2 emissions and decreases fuel economy.The general trend of increasing footprint and CO2 emissions holds true for vehicles from model year 2008 and model year 2021,although vehicles produced in model year 2021 are projected to produce roughly 20%less CO2 emissions than model year 2008 vehicles of a comparable footprint.Electric vehicles are shown in Figure 3.14 with zero tailpipe CO2 emissions,regardless of footprint.As more electric vehicles enter the market,the relationship between footprint and tailpipe CO2 emissions will become much flatter,or less sensitive to footprint.Figure 3.14.Relationship of Footprint and CO2 Emissions Model Year 2008 2021 750 Real-World CO2(g/mi)250 0 30 40 50 60 70 Footprint(sq ft)31 E.Vehicle Type and Attribute Tradeoffs The past 45 years of data show striking changes in the mix of vehicle types,and the attributes of those vehicles,produced for sale in the United States.In the two decades prior to 2004,technology innovation and market trends generally resulted in increased vehicle power and weight(due to increasing vehicle size and content)while average new vehicle fuel economy steadily decreased and CO2 emissions correspondingly increased.Since model year 2004,the combination of technology innovation and market trends have resulted in average new vehicle fuel economy increasing 32%,horsepower increasing 20%,and weight increasing 4%.Footprint has increased 5%since EPA began tracking it in model year 2008.These metrics are all at record highs,and horsepower,weight,and footprint are projected to increase again in model year 2022,as shown in Figure 3.15.The changes within each of these metrics is due to the combination of design and technology changes within each vehicle type,and the market shifts between vehicle types.For example,overall new vehicle footprint has increased within each vehicle type since model year 2008,but the average new vehicle footprint has increased more than the increase in any individual vehicle type over that time span,due to market shifts towards larger vehicle types.Fuel economy has also increased in all vehicle types since model year 2008,however the market shift towards less efficient vehicle types has offset some of the fleetwide fuel economy and CO2 emission benefits that otherwise would have been achieved through improving technology.Vehicle fuel economy and CO2 emissions are clearly related to vehicle attributes investigated in this section,namely weight,horsepower,and footprint.Future trends in fuel economy and CO2 emissions will be dependent,at least in part,by design choices related to these attributes.-32 Figure 3.15.Relative Change in Fuel Economy,Weight,Horsepower,and Footprint Change Since 1975 100uP%0%Real-World Fuel Economy Horsepower Weight 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 10%0%Footprint Change Since 2008 :j I .,I,.-,I -1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Model Year 33 Table 3.1.Vehicle Attributes by Model Year Model Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(prelim)Real-World Real-World Car Truck CO2 FE Weight Horsepower 0 to 60 Footprint Production Production(g/mi)(mpg)(lbs)(HP)(s)(ft2)Share Share 681 13.1 4,060 137-80.7.3F6 19.2 3,228 104 15.6-83.5.5A7 21.3 3,271 114 14.1-75.2$.8B0 21.2 3,426 135 11.5-70.4).6C4 20.5 3,613 158 10.1-63.56.5E0 19.8 3,821 181 9.8-58.8A.2D7 19.9 4,059 209 9.0-55.6D.4D2 20.1 4,067 213 8.9-57.9B.1C1 20.6 4,093 217 8.9-58.9A.1B4 21.0 4,085 219 8.9 48.9 59.3.797 22.4 3,914 208 8.8 47.9 67.03.094 22.6 4,001 214 8.8 48.5 62.87.299 22.3 4,126 230 8.5 49.5 57.8B.277 23.6 3,979 222 8.5 48.8 64.45.668 24.2 4,003 226 8.4 49.1 64.15.969 24.1 4,060 230 8.3 49.7 59.3.760 24.6 4,035 229 8.3 49.4 57.4B.659 24.7 4,035 230 8.3 49.5 55.3D.757 24.9 4,093 234 8.2 49.8 52.6G.453 25.1 4,137 241 8.0 50.4 48.0R.056 24.9 4,156 245 7.9 50.8 44.4U.649 25.4 4,166 246 7.8 50.9 43.9V.147 25.4 4,289 253 7.7 51.5 37.1b.931 26.4 4,329 272 7.5 51.7 37.8b.2%To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends 34 35 Table 3.2.Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Vehicle Type Model Year Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup Prod Share Real-World CO2(g/mi)Real-World FE (mpg)Prod Share Real-World CO2(g/mi)Real-World FE (mpg)Prod Share Real-World CO2(g/mi)Real-World FE (mpg)Prod Share Real-World CO2(g/mi)Real-World FE (mpg)Prod Share Real-World CO2(g/mi)Real-World FE(mpg)1975 80.6f0 13.5 0.1y9 11.1 1.76 11.0 4.50 11.1 13.1t6 11.9 1980 83.5D6 20.0 0.0a0 14.6 1.6g6 13.2 2.1b9 14.1 12.7T1 16.5 1985 74.687 23.0 0.6D3 20.1 4.5S8 16.5 5.9S7 16.5 14.4H9 18.2 1990 69.881 23.3 0.5G2 18.8 5.1T1 16.4 10.0I8 17.8 14.5Q1 17.4 1995 62.079 23.4 1.5I9 17.8 10.5U5 16.0 11.0I2 18.1 15.0R6 16.9 2000 55.188 22.9 3.7I7 17.9 15.2U5 16.0 10.2G8 18.6 15.8S4 16.7 2005 50.579 23.5 5.1D0 20.2 20.6S1 16.7 9.3F0 19.3 14.5V1 15.8 2006 52.982 23.3 5.0C4 20.5 19.9Q8 17.2 7.7E5 19.5 14.5U1 16.1 2007 52.969 24.1 6.0C1 20.6 21.7P3 17.7 5.5E6 19.5 13.8U0 16.2 2008 52.766 24.3 6.6A9 21.2 22.1H9 18.2 5.7D8 19.8 12.9S9 16.5 2009 60.551 25.3 6.53 22.0 18.4F1 19.3 4.0D3 20.1 10.6R6 16.9 2010 54.540 26.2 8.286 23.0 20.7E2 19.7 5.0D2 20.1 11.5R7 16.9 2011 47.844 25.8 10.078 23.5 25.5D9 19.8 4.3B4 20.9 12.3Q6 17.2 2012 55.022 27.6 9.481 23.3 20.6D5 20.0 4.9A8 21.3 10.1Q6 17.2 2013 54.113 28.4 10.065 24.3 21.8B7 20.8 3.8B2 21.1 10.4P9 17.5 2014 49.213 28.4 10.164 24.4 23.9A2 21.6 4.3A8 21.3 12.4I3 18.0 2015 47.206 29.0 10.253 25.1 28.16 21.9 3.98 21.8 10.7G4 18.8 2016 43.803 29.2 11.538 26.2 29.10 22.2 3.9A0 21.7 11.7G1 18.9 2017 41.0)3 30.2 11.639 26.1 31.798 22.3 3.699 22.2 12.1G0 18.9 2018 36.7(6 30.8 11.324 27.4 35.084 23.1 3.189 22.8 13.9F6 19.1 2019 32.7(5 30.9 11.723 27.5 36.578 23.5 3.496 22.4 15.6F7 19.0 2020 30.97 31.7 13.010 28.4 38.774 23.8 2.979 23.4 14.4F5 19.2 2021 25.70 32.2 11.48 31.0 44.768 24.1 2.222 27.3 16.1F3 19.3 2022(prelim)25.4%4 33.7 12.4&2 32.4 43.154 24.8 3.444 25.6 15.7D2 20.1 To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends Table 3.3.Model Year 2021 Vehicle Attributes by Manufacturer Manufacturer BMW Ford GM Honda Hyundai Kia Mazda Mercedes Nissan Stellantis Subaru Tesla Toyota VW Other All Manufacturers Real-World Real-World CO2 FE Weight Horsepower 0 to 60 Footprint(g/mi)(mpg)(lbs)(HP)(s)(ft2)339 25.8 4,443 299 6.3 50.1 385 22.9 4,685 299 6.9 57.2 414 21.6 4,770 288 7.5 56.9 312 28.5 3,786 212 7.8 47.9 310 28.5 3,646 194 8.6 47.9 310 28.7 3,566 190 8.5 47.6 324 27.4 3,847 197 8.8 46.4 376 23.6 4,576 304 6.6 50.9 311 28.6 3,790 195 9.0 47.6 417 21.3 4,772 304 7.1 55.5 309 28.8 3,899 195 9.1 45.9 0 123.9 4,317 376 4.8 50.6 327 27.1 4,158 224 7.8 49.7 352 24.7 4,394 269 7.2 49.6 340 25.6 4,401 270 7.7 49.0 347 25.4 4,289 253 7.7 51.5 To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends 36 Table 3.4.Model Year 2021 Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 by Manufacturer and Vehicle Type Manufacturer Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup Real-Real-World World Prod CO2 FE Share(g/mi)(mpg)Real-Real-World World Prod CO2 FE Share(g/mi)(mpg)Real-Real-World World Prod CO2 FE Share(g/mi)(mpg)Real-Real-World World Prod CO2 FE Share(g/mi)(mpg)Real-Real-World World Prod CO2 FE Share(g/mi)(mpg)BMW 49.716 27.8 6.307 29.0 44.069 23.6-Ford 6.1%9 29.9 8.104 29.1 46.083 23.2 1.656 25.0 38.1B5 20.9 GM 8.5)7 29.4 12.606 29.0 43.1B1 21.1-35.9G1 19.1 Honda 43.64 32.4 10.611 28.5 39.540 26.1 4.076 23.6 2.4B4 21.0 Hyundai 43.5%8 34.4 33.523 27.3 23.091 22.7-Kia 49.7&6 33.4 8.212 28.5 41.059 24.8 1.2B0 21.1-Mazda 20.5)7 30.0 18.808 28.8 60.839 26.2-Mercedes 29.442 26.0 14.431 26.8 55.15 22.0 1.0B8 20.7-Nissan 56.89 31.7 14.0)2 30.4 20.754 25.1 1.956 24.9 6.5F9 18.9 Stellantis 9.5A7 21.3 4.040 26.1 51.90 22.1 6.441 25.3 28.1G8 18.7 Subaru 10.026 27.3-90.007 28.9-Tesla 47.2%0 129.8 45.8%0 119.0 7.0%0 119.8-Toyota 30.3%6 34.6 10.910 28.7 39.533 26.5 3.6$8 35.8 15.7G7 18.6 VW 29.002 28.9 5.0 1 35.7 66.086 22.7-Other 16.5%5 33.4 14.5(7 29.4 68.071 23.6 1.041 26.0-All Manufacturers 25.70 32.2 11.48 31.0 44.768 24.1 2.222 27.3 16.1F3 19.3 To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends 37 Table 3.5.Footprint by Manufacturer for Model Year 20202022(ft2)Manufacturer BMW Ford GM Honda Hyundai Kia Mazda Mercedes Nissan Stellantis Subaru Tesla Toyota VW Other All Manufacturers Final MY 2020 Car Truck 47.8 52.8 47.8 58.1 45.5 58.9 46.1 49.8 46.5 53.5 45.7 50.4 45.5 47.1 48.8 53.2 46.7 51.1 49.3 55.8 44.9 46.4 50.4 54.8 46.3 52.6 46.3 49.4 44.9 49.9 46.6 54.3 All 49.7 55.4 54.5 47.7 47.2 47.5 46.3 51.3 48.1 54.9 46.1 50.6 49.3 48.1 48.6 50.9 Final MY 2021 Car Truck 48.1 52.7 47.6 58.8 45.4 60.0 46.6 49.5 46.5 52.4 46.1 49.6 45.5 47.0 49.1 52.4 46.1 51.1 50.3 56.3 44.9 46.0 50.6 51.4 46.5 51.9 47.1 50.8 44.7 50.8 46.9 54.3 All 50.1 57.2 56.9 47.9 47.9 47.6 46.4 50.9 47.6 55.5 45.9 50.6 49.7 49.6 49.0 51.5 Preliminary MY 2022 Car Truck All 47.9 52.9 50.1 48.0 57.7 56.7 45.9 58.6 55.2 46.9 50.8 48.6 46.9 50.9 48.0 46.9 50.7 48.7 44.3 47.0 46.6 50.1 52.5 51.4 46.9 51.3 48.7 50.5 57.2 56.5 44.9 46.3 46.0 50.4 52.0 50.7 46.5 52.6 49.9 46.8 50.2 48.8 46.1 52.9 51.3 47.2 54.4 51.7 To explore this data in more depth,please see the report website at https:/www.epa.gov/automotive-trends 38 Vehicle Technology Since model year 1975,the technology used in vehicles has continually evolved.Todays vehicles utilize an increasingly wide array of technological solutions developed by the automotive industry to improve vehicle attributes discussed previously in this report,including CO2 emissions,fuel economy,vehicle power,and acceleration.Automotive engineers and designers are constantly creating and evaluating new technology and deciding how,or if,it should be applied to their vehicles.This section of the report looks at vehicle technology from two perspectives;first,how the industry has adopted specific technologies over time,and second,how those technologies have impacted CO2 emissions and fuel economy.A.Technology Overview All vehicles use some type of engine or motor to convert energy stored on the vehicle,usually in a fuel or battery,into rotational energy to propel the vehicle forward.Internal combustion engines,for example,typically combust gasoline or diesel fuel to rotate an output shaft.Internal combustion engines are paired with a transmission to convert the rotational energy from the relatively narrow range of speeds available at the engine to the appropriate speed required for driving conditions.The transmission is connected to a driveline that transfers the rotational energy from the transmission to the two or four wheels being used to move the vehicle.Each of these components has energy losses,or inefficiencies,which ultimately increase vehicle CO2 emissions and decrease fuel economy.A basic illustration of the energy flow through a gasoline vehicle is shown in Figure 4.1.Figure 4.1.Vehicle Energy Flow 4.Engine-39 Manufacturers have been adopting many new technologies to improve gasoline internal combustion engines.Figure 4.2 illustrates manufacturer-specific technology adoption for model year 2021,where larger circles represent higher adoption rates.For gasoline engines,technologies such as turbocharged engines(Turbo)and gasoline direct injection(GDI)allow for more efficient engine design and operation.Cylinder deactivation(CD)allows for only using part of the engine when less power is needed.Transmissions that have seven or more speeds,and continuously variable transmissions(CVTs),allow an engine to more frequently operate near its peak efficiency,providing more efficient average engine operation and a reduction in fuel usage.Engine stop/start systems can turn off the engine entirely when the vehicle is stopped to save fuel.Manufacturers are also adopting hybrids,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs),electric vehicles(EVs),and fuel cell vehicles(FCVs).Hybrid vehicles store some propulsion energy in a battery,and often recapture braking energy,allowing for a smaller,more efficiently operated engine.Plug-in hybrids operate similarly to hybrids,but their batteries can be charged from an external source of electricity,and generally have a longer electric only operating range.Electric vehicles operate only on energy stored in a battery that is charged from an external source of electricity and rely exclusively on electric motors for propulsion instead of an internal combustion engine.Fuel cell vehicles use a fuel cell stack to create electricity from an onboard fuel source(usually hydrogen),which then powers an electric motor or motors to propel the vehicle.PHEVs,EVs,and FCVs offer fundamentally different architectures than shown in Figure 4.1 and require different metrics10 and an evolving analysis of vehicle technology.Hybrids,PHEVs and EVs are a growing portion of the fleet,and most manufacturers have made recent public announcements committing to billions of dollars in research towards electrification,and in some cases,manufacturers have announced specific targets for entirely phasing out internal combustion engines.The technologies in Figure 4.2 are all being used by manufacturers to reduce CO2 emissions and increase fuel economy.Each of the fourteen largest manufacturers have adopted several of these technologies into their vehicles,with many manufacturers achieving high penetrations of several technologies as shown in Figure 4.2.It is also clear that manufacturers strategies to develop and adopt technologies are unique and vary significantly.Each manufacturer is choosing technologies that best meet the design requirements of their vehicles,and in many cases,that technology is changing quickly.The 10 See Appendix E for a detailed discussion of EV and PHEV metrics.-40 rest of this section will explore how vehicle technology has changed since 1975,the impact of those technology changes,and the rate at which technology is adopted by the industry.Figure 4.2.Manufacturer Use of Emerging Technologies for Model Year 2021 Tesla Subaru Kia Nissan Hyundai Honda Mazda Toyota BMW VW Mercedes Ford GM Stellantis All Manufacturers 337w%3S%5&SV0%00yDrGT!%8%3E%1%9%26a#BWt088FEEEuwqd$!P%9%5 %7%4%2%4%3%1%3%7%7%2%0%2%1%0%00%Turbo GDI CD CVT 7 Gears Non-hybrid Hybrid PHEV/StopStart EV/FC -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-41 B.Vehicle Propulsion As discussed above,all vehicles use some type of engine or motor to convert stored energy into rotational energy to propel the vehicle forward.Over the last 45 years that EPA has been collecting data,gasoline internal combustion engines have been the dominant technology used as a power source in vehicles.Over that time,the technology used in combustion engines has continually evolved.Modern gasoline combustion engines are continuing that trend,employing technologies such as direct injection,turbocharging,and cylinder deactivation to improve efficiency and performance.A growing portion of new vehicles rely on partial or full electrification to achieve operational improvements,reduce tailpipe CO2 emissions,and increase fuel economy.Many new vehicles utilize stop-start technology,which turns off the engine during idle conditions and uses the vehicle battery to restart the engine when needed.Mild hybrids generally employ stop-start systems and have an electric motor that can assist the engine with moving the vehicle forward.Full hybrids generally have larger batteries and motors that can provide more power to move the vehicle or can directly drive the vehicle without the engine.Plug-in hybrids(PHEVs)add the capability of charging the vehicle battery from an external source,namely electricity from the power grid.Full electric vehicles(EVs)rely on electric motors to provide propulsion and use energy stored onboard in a battery.EVs are charged with electricity from the power grid,and do not have an internal combustion engine.Most hybrids,PHEVs,and EVs also utilize regenerative braking to recapture braking energy that otherwise would have been lost as heat,and further improve vehicle efficiency.This“spectrum of electrification”is creating a wide range of technology implementation strategies on modern vehicles,and offering numerous pathways to improve vehicle efficiency,emissions,and performance.The trend in vehicle propulsion technology since model year 1975 is shown in Figure 4.3.Vehicles that use an engine that operates exclusively on gasoline(including hybrids,but not plug-in hybrids which also use electricity)have held at least 95%of the light-duty vehicle market in almost every year prior to model year 2021(vehicles with diesel engines briefly captured almost 6%of the market in model year 1981).In model year 2021,the combination of EVs,PHEVs,FCVs,and diesel vehicles accounted for slightly more than 5%of all production.The production of EVs is expected to grow in future model years,transitioning to a technology found across multiple vehicle types and models.Projected model year 2022 data suggests EVs alone will capture more than 7%of the market,and perhaps begin to challenge the dominance of vehicles relying exclusively on gasoline internal combustion engines.-42 Figure 4.3.Production Share by Engine Technology 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0%Pu0%Truck 0%Pu0r Production Share 1 3 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 6 5 13 7 3 1 4 8 2 13 10 9 -Model Year Fuel Delivery Valve Timing Number of Valves Key Carbureted Fixed Two-Valve 1 Multi-Valve 2 3Throttle Body Injection Fixed Two-Valve Multi-Valve 4 Port Fuel Injection Fixed Two-Valve 5 Multi-Valve 6 Variable Two-Valve 7 8 9 Multi-Valve Gasoline Direct Injection(GDI)Fixed Multi-Valve Variable Multi-Valve 10 Two-Valve 11 Diesel 12 EV/PHEV/FCV 13 43 Engines that use only gasoline as a fuel(including hybrids)are further divided based on three broad parameters for Figure 4.3:fuel delivery,valve timing,and number of valves per cylinder.These parameters enable better control of the combustion process,which in turn can allow for lower CO2 emissions,increased fuel economy,and/or more power.Fuel delivery refers to the method of creating an air and fuel mixture for combustion.The technology for fuel delivery has changed over time from carburetors to fuel injection systems located in the intake system,and more recently to gasoline direct injection(GDI)systems that spray gasoline directly into the engine cylinder.The valves on each cylinder of the engine determine the amount and timing of air entering and exhaust gases exiting the cylinder during the combustion process.Valve timing has evolved from fixed timing to variable valve timing(VVT),which can allow for much more precise control.In addition,the number of valves per cylinder has generally increased,again offering more control of air and exhaust flows.Combined,these changes have led to modern engines with much more precise control of the combustion process.Figure 4.3 shows many different engine designs as they have entered,and in many cases exited,the automotive market.Some fleetwide changes occurred gradually,but in some cases(for example trucks in the late 1980s),engine technology experienced widespread change in only a few years.Evolving technology offers opportunities to improve fuel economy,CO2 emissions,power,and other vehicle parameters.The following analysis will look at technology trends within gasoline engines(including hybrids),PHEVs and EVs,and diesel engines.Each of these categories of engine technologies has unique properties,metrics,and trends over time.Gasoline Engines Since EPA began tracking vehicle data in 1975,over 650 million vehicles have been produced for sale in the United States.As shown in Figure 4.3,vehicles relying on a gasoline engine as the only source of power have been the overwhelmingly dominant technology for that time span,although EVs and PHEVs are now capturing a growing portion of new vehicle production.For the purposes of this report,hybrid vehicles are included with gasoline engines,as are“flex fuel”vehicles that are capable of operating on gasoline or a blend of 85%ethanol and 15%gasoline(E85).Engine Size and Displacement Engine size is generally described in one of two ways,either the number of cylinders or the total displacement of the engine(the total volume of the cylinders).Engine size is -44 important because larger engines strongly correlate with higher fuel use.Figure 4.4 shows the trends in gasoline engine size over time,as measured by number of cylinders;note the gap between the top of the stacked bar and the 100%threshold corresponds to the share of vehicles relying on technologies other than gasoline engines,primarily diesel engines in the 1980s and EVs more recently.Figure 4.4.Gasoline Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders Production Share 100uP%075 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Model Year Cylinders Less than 4 4 Cylinder 5 Cylinder 6 Cylinder 8 Cylinder More than 8 In the mid and late 1970s,the 8-cylinder gasoline engine was dominant,accounting for well over half of all new vehicle production.Between model year 1979 and 1980 there was a significant change in the market,as 8-cylinder engine production share dropped from 52%to 23%,and those engines were replaced with smaller 4-cylinder and some 6-cylinder engines.From model year 1987 through 2004,production moved back towards larger 6-cylinder and 8-cylinder engines.This trend reversed again in 2005 as production began trending back towards 4-cylinder engines.Four-cylinder gasoline engines are now the most popular engine option,capturing about 55%of the market in model year 2021.-45 Overall engine size,as measured by the total volume of all the engines cylinders,is directly related to the number of cylinders.As vehicles have moved towards engines with a lower number of cylinders,the total engine size,or displacement,is also at an all-time low.The average new vehicle in model year 1975 had a displacement of nearly 300 cubic inches,compared to an average of 176 cubic inches in model year 2021.Gasoline engine displacement per cylinder has been relatively stable over the time of this report(around 34 cubic inches per cylinder since 1980),so the reduction in overall new vehicle engine displacement is almost entirely due to the shift towards engines with fewer cylinders.The contrasting trends in horsepower(at all-time high)and engine displacement(at an all-time low)highlight the continuing improvement in engines.These improvements are due to the development of new technologies and ongoing design improvements that allow for more efficient use of fuel or reduce internal engine friction.One additional way to examine the relationship between engine horsepower and displacement is to look at the trend in specific power(HP/Displacement),which is a metric to compare the power output of an engine relative to its size.Specific power has increased 192tween model year 1975 and model year 2021.The rate at which specific power has increased has been remarkably steady,as shown in Figure 4.5.The specific power of new vehicle gasoline engines has increased by about 0.02 horsepower per cubic inch every year for 45 years.Considering the numerous and significant changes to engines over this time span,changes in consumer preferences,and the external pressures on vehicle purchases,the long-standing linearity of this trend is noteworthy.The roughly linear increase in specific power does not appear to be slowing.Turbocharged engines,direct injection,higher compression ratios,and many other engine technologies are likely to continue increasing engine specific power.Figure 4.5 also shows two other important engine metrics,the amount of fuel consumed compared to the overall size of the engine(Fuel Consumption/Displacement),and the amount of fuel consumed relative to the amount of power produced by an engine(Fuel Consumption/HP).The amount of fuel consumed by a gasoline engine in model year 2021,relative to the total displacement,is about 14%lower than in model year 1975.Fuel consumption relative to engine horsepower has fallen more than 70%since model year 1975.Taken as a whole,the trend lines in Figure 4.5 clearly show that gasoline engine improvements over time have been steady and continual and have resulted in impressive improvements to internal combustion engines.-46 Figure 4.5.Percent Change for Specific Gasoline Engine Metrics 20000P%0P%-Fuel Consumption/HP Fuel Consumption/Displacement HP/Displacement 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Model Year Change Since 1975 Fuel Delivery Systems and Valvetrains All gasoline engines require a fuel delivery system that controls the flow of fuel delivered into the engine.The process for controlling fuel flow has changed significantly over time,allowing for much more control over the combustion process and thus more efficient engines.In the 1970s and early 1980s,nearly all gasoline engines used carburetors to meter fuel delivered to the engine.Carburetors were replaced over time with fuel injection systems;first throttle body injection(TBI)systems,then port fuel injection(PFI)systems,and more recently gasoline direct injection(GDI),as shown in Figure 4.3.TBI and PFI systems use fuel injectors to electronically deliver fuel and mix it with air outside of the engine cylinder;the resulting air and fuel mixture is then delivered to the engine cylinders for combustion.Engines that utilize GDI spray fuel directly into the air in the engine cylinder for better control of the combustion process.Engines using GDI were first introduced into the market with very limited production in model year 2007.Ten years later,GDI engines were installed in 53%of model year 2021 vehicles.47 Another key aspect of engine design is the valvetrain.Each engine cylinder must have a set of valves that allow for air(or an air/fuel mixture)to flow into the engine cylinder prior to combustion and for exhaust gases to exit the cylinder after combustion.The number of valves per cylinder and the method of controlling the valves(i.e.,the valvetrain)directly impacts the overall efficiency of the engine.Generally,engines with four valves per cylinder instead of two,and valvetrains that can alter valve timing during the combustion cycle can provide more engine control and increase engine power and efficiency.This report began tracking multi-valve engines(i.e.,engines with more than two valves per cylinder)for cars in model year 1986 and for trucks in model year 1994.Since that time about 90%of the fleet has converted to multi-valve design.While some three-and five-valve engines have been produced,the majority of multi-valve engines are based on four valves per cylinder.Engines with four valves generally use two valves for air intake and two valves for exhaust.In addition,this report began tracking variable valve timing(VVT)technology for cars in model year 1990 and for trucks in model year 2000,and since then nearly the entire fleet has adopted this technology.Figure 4.3 shows the evolution of engine technology,including fuel delivery method and the introduction of VVT and multi-valve engines.As shown in Figure 4.3,fuel delivery and valvetrain technologies have often been developed simultaneously.Nearly all carbureted engines relied on fixed valve timing and had two valves per cylinder,as did early port-injected engines.Port-injected engines largely developed into engines with both multi-valve and VVT technology.Engines with GDI are almost exclusively using multi-valve and VVT technology.These four engine groupings,or packages,represent a large share of the engines produced over the timespan covered by this report.Figure 4.6 shows the changes in specific power and fuel consumption per horsepower for each of these engine packages over time.There is a very clear increase in specific power of each engine package as engines moved from carbureted engines,to engines with two valves,fixed timing and port fuel injection,then to engines with multi-valve VVT and port fuel injection,and finally to GDI engines.Some of the increase for GDI engines may also be due to the fact that GDI engines are often paired with turbochargers to further increase power.Vehicles with fixed valve timing and two valves per cylinder have been limited in recent years and are no longer included in Figure 4.6 after model year 2015 due to very limited production.-48 Figure 4.6.Engine Metrics for Different Gasoline Technology Packages 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 Specific Power(HP/Displacement)Carbureted Engines Fixed Timing,Two-Valve Engines Variable Timing,Multi-Valve Engines GDI Engines Fuel Consumption/HP(gal/100 mi)/HP)0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Model Year Carbureted Engines Variable Timing,Multi-Valve Engines Fixed Timing,Two-Valve Engines GDI Engines 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 -49 Turbocharging Turbochargers increase the power that an engine can produce by forcing more air,and thus fuel,into the engine.An engine with a turbocharger can produce more power than an identically sized engine that is naturally aspirated or does not have a turbocharger.Turbochargers are powered using the pressure of the engine exhaust as it leaves the engine.Superchargers operate the same way as turbochargers but are directly connected to the engine for power,instead of using the engine exhaust.Alternate turbocharging and supercharging methods,such as electric superchargers,are also beginning to emerge.A limited number of new vehicles utilize both a turbocharger and supercharger in one engine package.Gasoline turbocharged engines have grown rapidly in the marketplace,accounting for more than 30%of all production in model year 2021,as shown in Figure 4.7.Many of these engines are applying turbochargers to create“turbo downsized”engine packages that can combine the improved fuel economy of smaller engines during normal operation but can provide the power of a larger engine by engaging the turbocharger when necessary.As evidence of this turbo downsizing,about 73%of gasoline turbocharged engines are 4-cylinder engines in model year 2021 with most other turbochargers being used in 6-cylinder and 3-cylinder engines.Model year 2022 is projected to be a similar distribution,with a growing number of vehicles equipped with 3-cylinder turbocharged engines.This is shown in Figure 4.8.Most of the current gasoline turbocharged engines also use GDI and VVT.This allows for more efficient engine operation,helps increase the resistance to premature combustion(engine knock),and reduces turbo lag(the amount of time it takes for a turbocharger to engage).In model year 2021,almost 90%of new vehicles with gasoline turbocharged engines also used GDI.Figure 4.9 examines the distribution of engine displacement and power of gasoline turbocharged engines over time.In model year 2011,turbochargers were used mostly in cars,and were available on engines both above and below the average engine displacement.The biggest increase in turbocharger use over the last few years has been in cars with engine displacement well below the average displacement.The distribution of horsepower for turbocharged engines is much closer to the average horsepower,even though the displacement is smaller,reflecting the higher power per displacement of turbocharged engines.This trend towards adding turbochargers to smaller,less powerful engines is consistent with the turbo downsizing trend.-50 Figure 4.7.Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type Production Share 30 %0%Vehicle Type Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Pickup Minivan/Van Truck SUV 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 Model Year Figure 4.8.Gasoline Turbo Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders 30 %ct!.c.en C:0:g:,O e 10%a.0%Cylinders 4 Cylinder 6Cylinder 8Cylinder Other 2003 2008 2013 Model Year I 2018 2023-51 Figure 4.9.Distribution of Gasoline Turbo Vehicles by Displacement and Horsepower,Model Year 2011,2014,and 2021 Production(000)0 500 1,000 1,500 2,500 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,500 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,500 2,000 Car Truck 2011 2014 2021 Mean HP,All Trucks Mean HP,All Cars Mean Displacement,All Trucks Mean Displacement,All Cars Mean Displacement,All Cars Mean Displacement,All Cars Mean HP,All Trucks Mean Displacement,All Trucks Mean Displacement,All Trucks Mean HP,All Trucks Mean HP,All Cars Mean HP,All Cars Horsepower Displacement(cubic inches)0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 -r-52 Cylinder Deactivation Cylinder deactivation is an engine management approach that turns off the flow of fuel to one or more engine cylinders when driving conditions do not require full engine power.This effectively allows a large engine to act as a smaller engine when the additional cylinders are not needed,increasing engine efficiency and fuel economy.The use of cylinder deactivation in gasoline vehicles has been steadily climbing,and in model year 2021 gasoline engines with cylinder deactivation were almost 17%of all vehicles.This trend is expected to continue,especially as new improvements to cylinder deactivation technology,such as dynamic cylinder deactivation,continue to enter the market.Stop/Start Engine stop/start technology allows the engine to be automatically turned off at idle and very quickly restarted when the driver releases the brake pedal.By turning the engine off,a vehicle can eliminate the fuel use and CO2 emissions that would have occurred if the engine was left running.This report began tracking stop/start technology in model year 2012 at less than one percent.Since then,the use of stop/start has increased to about 45%of all new vehicles in model year 2021,excluding hybrid vehicles.While non-hybrid stop/start systems have been used in a wide range of applications,they are found more often in larger vehicles and engines,as shown in Figure 4.10 and Figure 4.11.Hybrids Gasoline hybrid vehicles feature a battery pack that is larger than the battery found on a typical gasoline vehicle,which allows these vehicles to store and strategically apply electrical energy to supplement the gasoline engine.The result is that the engine can be smaller than what would be needed in a non-hybrid vehicle,and the engine can be operated near its peak efficiency more often.Hybrids also frequently utilize regenerative braking,which uses a motor/generator to capture energy from braking instead of losing that energy to friction and heat,as in traditional friction braking,and stop/start technology to turn off the engine at idle.The combination of these strategies can result in significant reductions in fuel use and CO2 emissions.Hybrids were first introduced in the U.S.marketplace in model year 2000 with the Honda Insight.As more models and options were introduced,hybrid production increased to 3.8%of all vehicles in model year 2010,before declining somewhat over the next several years.However,in model year 2021 hybrid production reached a new high at 9.3%,and is projected to reach 10.1%in model year 2022,as shown in Figure 4.12 and Figure 4.13.-53 Figure 4.10.Non-Hybrid Stop/Start Production Share by Vehicle Type 50 10 2015 2020 Vehicle Type Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Truck SUV Minivan/Van Pickup 10%Cylinders-4 Cylinder 6 Cylinder 8 Cylinder Other-l!I-400 %Production Share Model Year Figure 4.11.Non-Hybrid Stop/Start Production Share by Number of Cylinders 50 10 2015 2020 Model Year Production Share 30 T Figure 4.12.Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Vehicle Type 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Production Share Vehicle Type Sedan/Wagon Car SUV Truck SUV Pickup Minivan/Van Model Year Figure 4.13.Gasoline Hybrid Engine Production Share by Number of Cylinders Production Share Cylinders 4 Cylinder 6 Cylinder 8 Cylinder Other 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Model Year 10.0%7.5%5.0%2.5%0%-I 10.0%7.5%5.0%2.5%0%-55 The growth in hybrid vehicles is largely attributable to growth outside of the sedan/wagon vehicle type.In model year 2020 the production of hybrids in the truck SUV category surpassed the production of sedan/wagon hybrids for the first time and did so by more than 50%.Hybrids also began to penetrate the pickup and minivan/van vehicle types.However,there remain very few hybrid car SUVs.Sedan/wagon hybrids accounted for only 21%of all hybrid production in model year 2021,as shown in Figure 4.12.Hybrid vehicles typically use a 4-cylinder engine,although an increasing number of 6 and 8-cylinder engines are being used in hybrid systems,as shown in Figure 4.13.The growth of hybrids in the pickup vehicle type is largely due to the introduction of“mild”hybrid systems that are capable of regenerative braking and many of the same functions as other hybrids but utilize a smaller battery and an electrical motor that cannot directly drive the vehicle.These mild hybrids account for about a third of hybrid production in model year 2021.Plug-In Hybrid Electric,Electric,and Fuel Cell Vehicles PHEVs and EVs are two types of vehicles that can store electricity from an external source onboard the vehicle,utilizing that stored energy to propel the vehicle.PHEVs are similar to gasoline hybrids discussed previously,but the battery packs in PHEVs can be charged from an external electricity source;this cannot be done in gasoline hybrids.EVs operate using only energy stored in a battery from external charging.Fuel cell vehicles use a fuel cell stack to create electricity from an onboard fuel source(usually hydrogen),which then powers an electric motor or motors to propel the vehicle EVs rely on electricity stored in a battery for fuel.There is no combustion occuring on the vehicle,and therefore there are no tailpipe emissions created by the vehicle.The electricity used to charge EVs can create emissions at the power plant.The amount of emission varies depending on the fuel source of the electricity,which can in turn vary based on location and time of day.The electric grid in the US has also been changing over time,as natural gas and renewable energy resources make up a growing portion of electricity generation across the US.Depending on the source of electricity,EVs often result in lower CO2 emissions over their lifetime compared to gasoline vehicles.Since EVs do not use gasoline,the familiar metric of miles per gallon cannot be applied to EVs.Instead,EVs are rated in terms of miles per gallon-equivalent(mpge),which is the number of miles that an EV travels on an amount of electrical energy equivalent to the energy in a gallon of gasoline.This metric enables a direct comparison of energy efficiency between EVs and gasoline vehicles.EVs generally have a much higher energy efficiency -56 than gasoline vehicles because electric motors are much more efficient than gasoline engines.PHEVs can operate either on electricity stored in a battery,or gasoline,allowing for a wide range of engine designs and strategies for the utilization of stored electrical energy during typical driving.Most PHEVs will operate on electricity only,like an EV,for a limited range,and then will operate like a more conventional hybrid until their battery is recharged from an external source.The use of electricity to provide some or all of the energy required for propulsion can significantly lower fuel consumption and tailpipe CO2 emissions.For a much more detailed discussion of EV and PHEV metrics,as well as upstream emissions from electricity,see Appendix E.The production of EVs and PHEVs has increased rapidly in recent years.Prior to model year 2011,EVs were available,but generally only in small numbers for lease in California.11 In model year 2011 the first PHEV,the Chevrolet Volt,was introduced along with the Nissan Leaf EV.Many additional models have been introduced since,and in model year 2021 combined EV/PHEV production reached 4%of all new vehicles.Combined EV and PHEV production is projected to reach a new high of 8%of all production in model year 2022.The trend in EVs,PHEVs,and FCVs are shown in Figure 4.14.11 At least over the timeframe covered by this report.EVs were initially produced more than 100 years ago.-57 Figure 4.14.Production Share of EVs,PHEVs,and FCVs12 Production Share Fuel Cell Vehicle Electric Vehicle Plug-In Hybrid EV 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Model Year 6%4%-2%0%The inclusion of model year 2021 EV and PHEV sales reduces the overall new vehicle average CO2 emissions by 14 g/mi,and this impact will continue to grow if EV and PHEV production increases.In model year 2021 there were three hydrogen FCVs produced,but they were only available in the state of California and Hawaii and in very small numbers.However there continues to be interest in FCVs as a future technology.Figure 4.15 and Figure 4.16 show the production share by vehicle type for EVs and PHEVs.Early production of EVs was mostly in the sedan/wagon vehicle type,but recent model years have sh
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