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This report is published by the International Science Council,the Belmont Forum and NORFACE,under Creative Commons Licence CC BY-NC 4.0.To cite this document:Mukute,M.,Colvin,J.and Burt,J.2024.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research:A comparative analysis of the design of two research programmes on transformations to sustainability.International Science Council,Belmont Forum,NORFACE.DOI:10.24948/2024.02 Date:April 2024 URL:https:/council.science/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/T2SReports-ProgrammeDesign.pdf Authors:Mutizwa Mukute,John Colvin and Jane Burt About the International Science Council:The International Science Council(ISC)works at the global level to catalyse change by convening scientific expertise,advice and influence on issues of major importance to both science and society.The ISC is a non-governmental organization with a unique global membership that brings together more than 245 international scientific unions and associations,national and regional scientific organizations including academies and research councils,international federations and societies,and young academies and associations.council.science About the Belmont Forum The Belmont Forum,established in 2009,is a global partnership of funding organizations,international science councils and regional consortia committed to the advancement of international,interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary science and knowledge for understanding,mitigating and adapting to global environmental change.Belmont Forum members and partner organizations work collaboratively to meet the Belmont Challenge by issuing international calls for proposals,committing to best practices for open data access,and providing transdisciplinary training.About NORFACE New Opportunities for Research Funding Agency Cooperation in Europe(NORFACE),launched in 2004,is a partnership of national research funding agencies in Europe dedicated to leading and developing opportunities for scientists in the area of social and behavioural sciences.NORFACE plays an important part in responding to the grand societal challenges by promoting research of the highest quality,sharing best practices among research funders and especially by making international collaboration between social scientists in Europe possible.The Transformations to Sustainability research programme was funded by thirteen NORFACE and Belmont Forum partners,as listed below,and the European Commission:Academy of Finland(AKA),FinlandFrench National Research Agency(ANR),FranceFund for Scientific Research(FNRS),Belgium Wallonia and Brussels Federation Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF),GermanyInternational Science Council(ISC),with the support of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency(SIDA)Japan Science and Technology Agency(JST),JapanNational Science Foundation(NSF),United StatesNetherlands Organisation for Scientific Research(NWO),the NetherlandsResearch Council of Norway(RCN),NorwayResearch Foundation Flanders(FWO),Belgium FlandersSo Paulo Research Foundation(FAPESP),BrazilSwedish Research Council(VR),SwedenUK Research and Innovation Economic and Social Research Council(ESRC),United KingdomThe European Commission is providing top-up funding to this research programme via an ERA-NET Cofund grant under grant agreement No.730211.The production of this report was financed by a grant from the US National ScienceFoundation(NSF)under Award number 2001326.Graphic design:Scriptoria Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research A comparative analysis of the design of two research programmes on transformations to sustainability Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research i Contents Prefatory note.iii Disclaimer.iv List of acronyms.v Foreword:Breaking the mould with transdisciplinary research for sustainability.vi Executive summary.viii 1.Introduction.1 1.1 Context and purpose of this report.1 1.2 Background to the Transformations to Sustainability programmes.2 1.3 Study approach and methodology.3 1.4 Overview of this report.4 2.The contexts of the two T2S programmes.5 2.1 Social-ecological conditions and their influences on programme design.5 2.2 Epistemological conditions and their influences on programme design.8 2.3 A brief overview of similarities and differences in T2S1 and T2S2 programme design.10 2.3.1 Framing.10 2.3.2 Approach.10 2.3.3 High-level goal.10 2.3.4 Geographic scope.10 2.3.5 Funding duration and scope.10 2.3.6 Thematic focus:.11 2.3.7 Geographic scope and Global South involvement.11 2.3.8 Research budget.11 2.3.9 Co-design.12 2.3.10 Programme coordination.12 2.3.11 Capacity development.13 3.Programme outcomes and challenges.13 3.1 Understanding of transformation processes.13 3.2 Integrated transdisciplinary research partnerships and community building.16 3.3 Research capacity for transformative research.18 3.4 Changes in research practice.19 3.5 Challenges.20 4.Insights for programme design.22 4.1 Context.22 4.2 Funding.24 Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research ii 4.3 People.27 4.4 Research practice.29 5.Conclusions.31 References.32 Appendix.35 Research projects funded under the T2S programmes.35 T2S1 Transformative Knowledge Networks.35 T2S2 Projects.35 Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research iii Prefatory note From 2014 to 2019,the International Science Council(ISC)coordinated the Transformations to Sustainability research programme,in this report referred to as T2S1,with funding from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.From 2017 to 2022,the Belmont Forum,NORFACE network and ISC collectively funded and coordinated a second iteration of the Transformations to Sustainability programme,in this report referred to as T2S2.The funders of the T2S2 programme decided in 2021 to undertake a study of learning derived from the programme.This study resulted in two reports:Mukute,M.,Colvin,J.,Burt,J.2024.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research:A Comparative Analysis of the Design of Two Research Programmes on Transformations to Sustainability.Belmont Forum,International Science Council,NORFACE.This report focuses on a comparative analysis of the design of T2S1 and T2S2.DOI:10.24948/2024.02 Moser,S.2024b.Social Transformations to Sustainability through a Critical Lens:Integrative insights from twelve research projects funded under the Transformations to Sustainability research programme.Belmont Forum,International Science Council,NORFACE.This report focuses on insights into transformations to sustainability from an analysis of the outputs of the twelve projects funded under T2S2.DOI:10.24948/2024.03 Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research iv The ISC also commissioned a synthesis study of the T2S1 programme,which resulted in the following report:Moser,S.2024a.Transformative Labour:The Hidden(and Not-So-Hidden)Work of Transformations to Sustainability.Integrative Insights from Three Transformative Knowledge Networks.International Science Council.This report focuses on insights into transformations to sustainability yielded by the three projects funded under T2S1.DOI 10.24948/2024.04 Together,this package of three reports presents some of the key insights and learning from nine years of research programming on transformations to sustainability.The NORFACE network,Belmont Forum and ISC would like to thank all project teams,project participants and interviewees who informed these reports.Disclaimer The information,opinions and recommendations presented in this report are those of authors of the report,and do not necessarily reflect the values or position of the ISC,the Belmont Forum or the NORFACE network.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research v List of acronyms ISC International Science Council ISSC International Social Science Council NORFACE New Opportunities for Research Funding Agency Cooperation in Europe NWO Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research Sida Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency TKN Transformative Knowledge Network T2S Transformation to Sustainability programme(comprehensively)T2S1 The first T2S programme,coordinated by the ISSC(later the ISC),with funding from Sida T2S2 The second T2S programme,funded by the Belmont Forum,NORFACE and the ISC/Sida UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research vi Foreword:Breaking the mould with transdisciplinary research for sustainability The Transformations to Sustainability(T2S)programme came to an end in December 2022 after nine exciting,challenging and rewarding years.The programme,launched in January 2014 by the International Social Science Council(ISSC,one of the predecessors of the International Science Council)with financing from the Swedish International Cooperation Agency(Sida),emerged out of a careful design process to create a research programme that would enable the social sciences to make their unique and much-needed contribution to sustainability science and action.As such the T2S programme was a milestone in the history of international science and is still one of the most significant manifestations of international,interdisciplinary collaboration between the natural and social sciences on sustainability.Inspired by the ISSC initiative,the Belmont Forum and the NORFACE network of social science funders launched a second phase with the ISSC in 2017,benefitting from top-up funding from the European Commission that made for a hugely significant step up in scale and scope for social science research cooperation and leadership in the domain of sustainability.These unique international funding opportunities attracted an overwhelming response from a global research community hungry for support for a new type of research for sustainability based on transdisciplinarity.The two phases of the programme made it possible to test innovative transdisciplinary and internationally comparative research approaches and offered opportunities for more equitable research participation and leadership from the Global South.The 15 international research projects funded under the two phases of the programme studied and participated in transformation processes in many dozens of sites all over the world,working with communities experiencing a Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research vii wide range of socio-environmental problems.What the projects all had in common was the social framing of the problems and potential solutions,deep involvement of non-academic partners and the effort to understand and facilitate processes of social change towards more sustainable and socially just situations.They shared the ethos of care for people and planet that characterizes transdisciplinary research.Collectively the 15 projects have produced several hundred academic and non-academic outputs,involved thousands of non-academic participants in their research and had significant impacts on the course of communities lives and on research directions and practice.The three concluding reports on the T2S programme released in 2024 are rich in insights and learning which validate and extend the body of knowledge on social transformations and transdisciplinary approaches.The T2S programme has confirmed that integrated,transdisciplinary knowledge is an indispensable part of local and global efforts to achieve social and environmental sustainability,but also that science systems are still not conducive to mould-breaking,transformative research.The experience of the T2S programme adds weight to the evidence that science itself needs to transform,in its funding and incentive structures,evaluation cultures,training approaches and interfaces with practice,policy,society and the private sector,to achieve its potential to mitigate the urgent,existential risks to humanity we are facing.We hope that the example of the T2S programme will inspire other funders to mobilize resources for the kind of research that can help accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and long-term sustainable and just development.Nicole Arbour Executive Director,Belmont Forum Salvatore Aric Chief Executive Officer,International Science Council Tomasz Zalekiewicz Chair,NORFACE Network Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research viii Executive summary This report synthesizes learning from a critical comparison of the design of two related but distinct international research programmes on the theme of Transformations to Sustainability(T2S)that ran from 2016 to 2019 and from 2018 to 2022,respectively.The programmes were funded by the International Science Council with the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency(Sida),the Belmont Forum,the NORFACE network and the European Commission.The comparison focused on the varying programme design features that aimed to support(1)a social framing of sustainability challenges and solutions and(2)interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches to research.It considered how and to what extent these features contributed to knowledge production,capacity building and institutional change.Transdisciplinary research in this context is research that integrates academic knowledge from different scientific disciplines with knowledge from non-academic knowledge partners in co-design,co-production and co-dissemination of knowledge and responses to societal problems(ISSC/UNESCO,2013).Social transformation refers to large-scale social change,accompanied by a shift in the collective consciousness of a society at or across different scales(ibid.).The insights relevant to programme design from the first T2S programme reinforce those gained from the second T2S programme.This may be attributed to the commonalities in the two programmes research foci,their social framing of sustainability challenges and the insistence on international,transdisciplinary research approaches,rather than the programmes funding conditions and programme management approaches.The main differences lie in the degree of Global South and practitioner involvement in research leadership,as well as in programme coordination,which received more attention and resources in the earlier programme,and in the thematic emphases,which were more specific in the latter programme.In the earlier programme,which had essentially one funder and one coordinating organization,Global South(co-)leadership and strong non-academic involvement brought equity and justice issues to the fore and corrected for imbalances in knowledge Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research ix production.Cross-project interaction and learning was financially better supported,opening important opportunities for epistemic advances and capacity building beyond the scope of each project.By contrast,the latter programme,with 13 funders,created greater critical mass,and with more specific thematic foci,offered greater potential for advancing pressing policy questions.The insights from the programmes are grouped into four categories involving twelve guiding principles for research design,which may be used to inform the establishment,implementation and requirements of future research programmes and calls for proposals.Context 1.Research foci emerge from contextual drivers and the interests of funders.Social-ecological and political/policy contexts as well as the state of knowledge at any given point in time influence the focus of research funding programmes;the interests and objectives of funders are also constitutive of research programme design and in multi-funder arrangements may not entirely coincide,leading to working compromises.2.Insights into transformation processes and pathways emerge from studying interactions across multiple scales and over time.Both programmes highlighted the need to understand how local cases are situated within national,regional and/or global contexts,as well as to give attention to cross-sectoral or cross-industry interactions.A combination of a cross-scalar lens with a historical perspective is necessary for understanding and potentially influencing transformative change processes and pathways.Funding 3.Flexible funding and governance are required for complex,multilevel,transdisciplinary research programmes.The two programmes showed the importance of not over-designing,that is,of allowing and creating spaces for emergence,learning,consultation and collective decision-making.This entails providing possibilities and resources for co-design,co-production,outreach,scaling Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research x and follow-up activities.Funders as well as funding mechanisms must be flexible enough to accommodate changes that occur during the transdisciplinary research process given its emergent nature.4.An appropriately resourced programme coordination unit is essential for supporting cross-project learning and knowledge production and interactions with the wider research community.International,transdisciplinary research programmes on social transformations are administratively complex and need to be adequately resourced,at programme and project levels.Both at the programme and project levels,resources needed for technical and scientific coordination,communications and interaction/cross-fertilization support should not be underestimated or sacrificed,as important synergistic value is added from these activities.5.Short research project periods undermine the effectiveness of transdisciplinary research processes.Generally,there is a need for a shift in research and capacity building funding from short-term and project-based models to a more sustained long-term process to allow for the synthesis and testing of or application of knowledge on sustainability,for development of theory and for continuity of engagement with communities.This is particularly important for lengthy transformations processes that cannot be understood or accomplished in typical short-term research funding cycles.People 6.Research funding for Global South researchers as equal partners in international research directly contributes to global knowledge production and sharing,and structurally rectifies longstanding epistemological injustices.Funding for(co)leadership from the Global South demonstrated that funders have a crucial role to play in creating the conditions under which Global South researchers can contribute equally to producing global knowledge on transformations to sustainability.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research xi 7.Funding for non-academic research partners is critical to enabling them to make a meaningful contribution.The comparison showed that funding that is inclusive of or directly targeted at the Global South and at non-academic partners fosters more equitable relationships between partners and helps counteract the phenomenon of extractive research dominated by Northern academic traditions.8.Monitoring,evaluation and learning approaches in transdisciplinary research programming need innovation.Research programming needs to experiment and innovate more to get the most out of the opportunities for reflexivity and learning provided by transdisciplinary research,without imposing disproportionate reporting burdens.9.Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research with a social framing enhances collaboration and can empower marginalized groups.Research teams that bring together individuals from different countries,disciplines,groups of practice and sectors of society allow different knowledges,perspectives and interests to interact and increase the chances of developing a more complete and nuanced understanding of any challenge,as well as more widely acceptable and feasible responses to pervasive sustainability challenges.10.Capacity building is transformational.Capacity building and empowerment result in enhanced ability to understand,see,participate in and catalyse transformation.Embedding capacity building for all into transdisciplinary research programmes enhances the programmes transformative outcomes.Knowledge exchange,training and capacity building activities should be an integral part of any transdisciplinary research funding programme,and particularly,but not only,for early career scientists.Building such an element into research programmes on transformations makes it more internally cohesive.Research practice 11.Transformative research involves a transformation in knowledge production.The programmes showed that transformation entails the reframing of sustainability and justice challenges,which in turn involves reframing concepts,frameworks,Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research xii methodologies,pathways and actions based on multiple,interacting perspectives and knowledges.12.The role of the researcher is not just technical/academic but also political.Transformations to sustainability research requires researchers not to see themselves merely as academic experts who possess more or superior knowledge than non-academics,but rather to be reflexive researchers and change agents.The ethics of doing care-full research requires the researcher to practice political rigour,which entails engaging in difficult conversations with the community to understand the structural and systemic issues they face and enable them to engage with them more effectively.In sum,the two programmes offer important insights into the effects of programme design features that together point to the need for the following:Sustained,long-term funding for transdisciplinary transformations to sustainability research;Dedicated funding for Global South research leadership;Space for learning and capacity building for and among academic and non-academic communities,across generations and places.Care should be taken to learn from innovative funding programmes such as the T2S programmes and to adjust them,rather than to revert to traditional models,especially in contexts where rapid learning is essential,such as environmental change.At the same time,patience is needed for the application of learning about transformations to sustainability,which may unfold slowly and silently.Innovation in research funding building on the T2S experience could help make a huge difference for science and for urgently needed social transformation processes.Science could play a much more significant role if funders would support science to unleash its power in collaboration with its societal partners.Funders themselves must rise to the sustainability challenge by showing both commitment and courage to create common pools of transdisciplinary research funding that incentivizes researchers and science systems to produce societally relevant and usable knowledge.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 1 1.Introduction 1.1 Context and purpose of this report This report provides learning from a critical comparison of the design of two related but distinct international research programmes on the theme of Transformations to Sustainability.The study was undertaken with a view to gaining insights into the effect of programme design features on the achievement of the programmes objectives.The intent is to inform and guide funders and designers of future international research programmes in this and related areas.The potential importance of this report lies in the fact that social transformations towards sustainability is a growing area of research,practice and policy-making.The concept of transformations to sustainability responds to the complexity of interacting,multilevel environmental change and societal challenges,including climate change,environmental degradation,biodiversity loss,disasters,poverty,food insecurity and inequality.This report aims to help answer questions about how to support impactful transformations to sustainability research and how to support researchers to take bold,sometimes risky,transformative approaches to generating usable knowledge.The report focuses on the programme design features that aimed to support(1)a social framing of sustainability challenges and solutions and(2)interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches.It considers how and to what extent these contributed to knowledge production,capacity building and institutional change,draws tentative conclusions and puts forward recommendations.Transdisciplinary research,as conceived of in the Transformations to Sustainability programmes,is research that integrates academic knowledge from different scientific disciplines with knowledge from non-academic knowledge partners in co-design,co-production and co-dissemination of knowledge and solutions to societal problems(ISSC/UNESCO,2013).Social transformation refers to large-scale social change,which is accompanied by a shift in the collective consciousness of a society at or across different scales(ibid.).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 2 The study that resulted in this report was commissioned by the Belmont Forum,the New Opportunities for Research Funding Agency Cooperation in Europe(NORFACE)network and the International Science Council(ISC),funders of the Transformations to Sustainability programmes.1.2 Background to the Transformations to Sustainability programmes The first Transformations to Sustainability programme(hereafter T2S1)was implemented from 2014 to 2019.In the first stage 38 seed grants were awarded to consortia to develop full proposals over a period of six months(ISC,2021a).In the subsequent stage three international projects,called Transformative Knowledge Networks(TKNs),were funded for three years.The International Social Science Council(ISSC;which later became the ISC)coordinated the programme with funding from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency(Sida)1.Funding for the seed grants and projects amounted to 3.7m(i.e.,not including programme coordination costs).The second programme,hereafter T2S2,was implemented from 2018 to 2022.It funded twelve international projects,also of three years duration,and was coordinated and funded by a multinational consortium of Belmont Forum and NORFACE members and the ISC,with top-up funding from the European Commission.The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research(NWO)provided the main coordination office for the programme,while other partners in the consortium were responsible,for various work packages,e.g.,managing the calls for proposals and evaluation processes.The Knowledge exchange and communications work package that supported cross-project interaction and learning as well as communication and dissemination activities was principally managed by the ISC with support from NWO.Funding for the twelve projects amounted to 11.5m(i.e.,not including programme coordination costs).1 Four funding agencies provided ad hoc support for the seed grants:the Economic and Social Research Council UK(Newton Fund),the Swedish Secretariat for Environmental Earth System Science,the National Research Foundation South Africa and the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research(NWO).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 3 Both T2S1 and T2S2 were explicitly intended to enable the social sciences to make their unique and essential contributions to sustainability research,practice and policy,on the premise that the social sciences were critical to producing usable knowledge for sustainability,but to date had been far less supported in this area of research compared to the physical and natural sciences.The motivation behind both research programmes was furthermore the growing recognition of the following:the limitations of nationally funded and nationally focused research and of disciplinary,institutional and sectoral silos;the dominance of researchers and research traditions from the Global North;and the critical importance of working with different,including non-academic,sources and types of knowledge,actors and institutions in understanding problems holistically and in imagining,developing and implementing just and widely acceptable solutions.1.3 Study approach and methodology The study approach was participatory,utilization-focused and iterative.Data were collected through the following methods:Desk review:Review of over 65 T2S1 and T2S2 programme documents,which included calls for proposals,project proposals,annual and final project reports,academic papers published in special issues,external programme evaluation reports and two T2S1 books(Ely et al.,2021;Walter,2023),to understand programme contexts,designs,interventions,challenges,opportunities,outcomes and insights.Analysis of relevant literature to appreciate programme contexts and their influence on programmes.Key informant interviews:Interviews with nine programme stakeholders consisting of three TKN(co-)coordinators from T2S1,2 the ISC T2S programme adviser3 and six T2S2 principal investigators and co-investigators4 to gain insights into the interaction between programme contexts,mechanisms and outcomes.2 Leah Temper,Acknowl-EJ;Adrian Ely,Pathways;Heila Lotz-Sisitka,T-learning.3 Susanne Moser.4 Eleanor Fisher,Gold Matters;Neil Adger,MISTY;Nathan Oxley,TAPESTRY;Eduardo Brondzio,AGENTS;Margareet Zwarteveen,T2GS;and Andy Stirling,GoST.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 4 Written inputs:Principal investigators and co-investigators from the CON-VIVA,IPACST,SecTenSusPeace,T2S-H20 and TRUEPATH projects who gave input to the interview questions as project teams.Discussions with the studys Advisory Board:Seven virtual meetings with the eight members of the Advisory Board of the study,representing funders and project members.5 Final T2S programme meeting(November 2022):Received and incorporated reflections from members of T2S1 and T2S2 projects on programme design and implementation shared at the final programme meeting.All 15 projects from the two programmes therefore contributed primary data for this report.1.4 Overview of this report Section 2 describes and analyses the respective contexts of T2S1 and T2S2 and how they may have influenced the design of the two programmes and produced certain similarities and differences in design.This is related in Section 3 to the programmes outcomes in terms of understanding of transformation,research collaboration,capacity building and research practices.Section 4 presents insights for programme design,which form the basis of the final part of this report:implications for funders interested in developing international research programmes that yield integrated,change-oriented and actionable knowledge that advances equitable transformations.5 Monika Brasser,Emily Hancock,Robert Fletcher,Silke Beck,Janne Niemi,Alexandre Roccatto,Susanne Moser and Sarah Moore.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 5 2.The contexts of the two T2S programmes The designs of T2S1 and T2S2 were influenced by evolving social-ecological and epistemological contexts in a number of ways,which are described and analysed in Sections 2.1 and 2.2,respectively.The resulting similarities and differences are outlined in Section 2.3.2.1 Social-ecological conditions and their influences on programme design The social-ecological conditions that shaped the design of both programmes were a set of interacting,human-induced,global justice and sustainability challenges that included climate change,biodiversity loss,water and food insecurity,energy production and consumption,rapid urbanization,environmental degradation,poverty,social conflict and inequalities.Research funders were increasingly recognizing the social nature of the causes and consequences of this interacting set of challenges that are now commonly seen as constituting the Anthropocene(Steffen et al.,2015)(or alternatively,the Capitalocene or Chthulecene Moore,2016;Haraway,2016)and,thus,the necessity for the social sciences to play a leading role in contributing to the understanding and tackling of sustainability challenges.The period leading up to the design of T2S1 in 20112013 was particularly formed by an understanding that humanitys global life support systems and resources were under pressure and reaching planetary limits,including the following:Risks to water,food,biodiversity and the global climate due to human exploitation,degradation of and pressures on the Earths systems;The interconnected challenges of safeguarding the Earths natural processes and ensuring the wellbeing of civilization while eradicating poverty,reducing conflict over resources and supporting human and ecosystem health;Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 6 The need to meet the needs of a growing population,while mitigating the negative impacts of unjust growth and use of Earths resources in highly interconnected and interdependent economic,social and political systems;The imperative to make global sustainability a foundation of society(see Brito and Smith,2012;University of Oslo,2013).Future Earth,launched at the Planet under Pressure conference in London in 2012,was an international research coordination effort,co-sponsored by the ISSC among others,to respond to this new understanding,recommending that future science should(i)generate understanding on how planet Earth is changing due to natural phenomena and human activities,(ii)provide the knowledge to address the most pressing needs of humanity and(iii)integrate solution-oriented science that produces knowledge for transformations to sustainability(Future Earth,2013).Future Earth also noted that innovative funding mechanisms were needed to support disciplinary and transdisciplinary research and coordination of international research activities.T2S1 was intended as the ISSCs contribution to Future Earth.Against this growing awareness,T2S1 focused on concrete problems of global environmental change and sustainability in specific social-ecological settings and called for research that specifically addressed nexus or interacting social and ecological challenges.By the time the T2S2 programme was designed,in 20162017,the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)6 and the Paris Climate Change Agreement7 had been agreed.Both international agreements recognized that prevailing pathways of human development were overshooting several planetary boundaries and highlighted the need for urgent action to address interconnected,interacting and dynamic global social-ecological challenges(Raworth,2012;Government of Sweden,2016;Griggs et al.,2017;Boehm et al.,2022).The SDGs represent a global consensus on the need for 6 The UN Sustainable Development Goals were adopted on 25 September 2015.https:/www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/7 United Nations.2015.Paris Agreement.Article 7.5.https:/unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 7 transformations across multiple social and environmental domains represented by the 17 goals.Most questions were by then clearly focused on the governance and finance mechanisms that could help meet the global targets,and how to bring society along in terms of shifts in values and worldviews to support the social and economic changes needed to meet the SDGs and emission reduction goals.These themes are clearly reflected in the call for proposals for T2S2,which defined three substantive and two methodological themes:Governance and institutional dimensions of transformations to sustainability;Economy and finance of transformations to sustainability;Wellbeing,quality of life,identity and social and cultural values in relation to transformations to sustainability;Conceptual aspects of processes of transformation;Methodological innovation.A comparison of the social-ecological contexts of the design period of the two T2S programmes suggests that the overarching challenges were similar(if perceived as more urgent in 2016),but that the concern with policy-and action-oriented research for transformations had increased markedly in T2S2.While not a design consideration,it should be noted that T2S2 was implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic,which affected all research projects during their active data collection,stakeholder engagement and sense-making phases.By contrast,the research projects of T2S1 had officially concluded,even though the research teams were still finalizing outputs.These conditions made research for the T2S2 projects significantly more challenging,resulting in adjustments to research objectives,approaches and project durations.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 8 2.2 Epistemological conditions and their influences on programme design Conventional knowledge production systems have been characterized as manifesting the following(Fazey et al.,2018):A disconnect between people and planet;Exclusion of important voices and knowledge holders;A narrow definition of knowledge;Elitist production of recognized knowledge,predominantly in the Global North;Fragmented and compartmentalized(disciplinary)knowledge;Knowledge production processes that lack reflexivity,courage,creativity and trust.The designs of the T2S1 and T2S2 research programmes aimed in similar and different ways to address the limitations of academic,disciplinary,sectoral and national silos.Both programmes explicitly recognized the value of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research,which emphasize understanding and catalysing just and sustainable transformations through co-design,co-production and co-dissemination of research and integrated knowledge.However,while T2S1 explicitly required and materially supported the co-design and co-production process with seed grants for co-design and funding for non-academic partners,T2S2,because of the constraints of its more complex funding structure and the varying eligibility rules of the participating funders,could only strongly encourage it in principle.Additionally,T2S1 aimed to directly address the fact that scientific knowledge creation was then(and continues to be)dominated by the Global North.This led to the requirement in T2S1 for leadership or joint leadership of projects by researchers in the Global South.By contrast,designers of T2S2 a consortium made up of mostly national funders were bound to a more traditional model of funding their own nationally-based researchers.While the amount of funding markedly increased in T2S2,and the principles of social science leadership and interdisciplinary approaches were maintained,T2S2 could not structurally address the need for greater transdisciplinarity,Global South research capacity and leadership and what was called epistemic justice Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 9 by the ACKnowl-EJ TKN in T2S1 by which is meant valorization and recognition of other forms of knowing and other life-worlds(Temper et al.,2016)in its funding mechanisms.By 2014,a number of schools of thought on transformations had emerged,including the following:transformative adaptation linked to social-ecological resilience(Olsson et al.,2014);socio-technical systems transitions concerned with transition management(Loorbach et al.,2017);and the development of a pathways perspective on transformations to sustainability(Leach et al.,2010).Moreover,T2S1 was also directly influenced by the Transformative Cornerstones report(ISSC,2012),which underlined the importance of social science attention to the following:Historical and contextual complexities,to help better understand the political economy of climate and other processes of environmental change,and to understand how these processes relate to a multitude of other social crises;The consequences of environmental change,to expose the diverse realities of living with global change;Conditions and visions for change,to understand how change happens,at what levels and scales,and in what directions;Interpretation and subjective sense-making,to confront the personal and collective values,beliefs,assumptions,interests,worldviews,hopes,needs and desires that underlie peoples experiences of and responses to sustainability challenges;Responsibilities,to foreground dominant actors obligations,duties and responsibilities to the poor;Governance and decision-making,to better understand how decisions are made in the face of uncertainty,what pathways are available for influencing decision-making,what determines the success or failure of political agreements and what drives political will.T2S2 defined a set of themes(see above)that resonated with the political concerns at the time of its design,chiefly about how societal transformations can be governed and steered(Moser,2016;Massarella et al.,2021).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 10 2.3 A brief overview of similarities and differences in T2S1 and T2S2 programme design Conceptual and structural similarities between T2S1 and T2S2 included the following:2.3.1 Framing Social science framings and social science leadership were considered critical to knowledge on and for transformations to sustainability.2.3.2 Approach Interdisciplinary research was required in both programmes;transdisciplinary research was required in T2S1 and strongly encouraged in T2S2.2.3.3 High-level goal To generate engaged,solutions-oriented knowledge that enabled a broader and deeper understanding of the conditions,processes,outcomes and impacts of transformative social change in the context of sustainability challenges.2.3.4 Geographic scope A minimum involvement of research teams in three countries was required in both programmes;in T2S1,the countries had to span two regions of the world.2.3.5 Funding duration and scope Project funding was for a three-year period,and there were resources for cross-project interaction and dissemination activities.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 11 These were the key differences between the programmes:2.3.6 Thematic focus:a)T2S1 was thematically open within the broad theme of understanding processes and dynamics of social transformation to sustainability,in relation to concrete problems of global environmental change and sustainability in specific settings.b)T2S2 was thematically more focused,as mentioned above.2.3.7 Geographic scope and Global South involvement T2S1 was able to fund researchers in virtually any country in the world,and moreover demanded Global South leadership and NorthSouth collaboration,requiring that research be carried out in a minimum of three countries.T2S2 required project teams to involve a minimum of three countries but the majority of participating funders could only fund researchers in their own countries,therefore Global South participation was not a funding requirement.T2S2 consequently had less participation of middle-and low-income country researchers compared to T2S1.2.3.8 Research budget T2S1 awarded grants of 850,000 to each of the three projects,which each had eight national teams on average,rather evenly distributed across Global North and South.Global South partners required much smaller budgets,which helped to increase their number.The small number of projects may have helped create a more intimate community in which programme-level co-learning and networking was easier.Representatives of the other projects were invited to annual project meetings.The larger T2S2 research budget increased opportunities for experimenting with transdisciplinary and other approaches across a wider number of social-ecological issues and settings,and also created a larger community with more critical mass.The programme awarded grants of an average of 950,000 to each project.There were usually four or five partners in each project.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 12 2.3.9 Co-design In T2S1,seed funding of 30,000 for each of 38 teams enabled consortia to jointly develop full proposals and to extend their partnerships.The seed grants were highly valuable,resulting in many academic outputs,including a special issue of a journal,and other research outcomes(Moser,2016),and ultimately also producing more mature full proposals in response to the subsequent call for full proposals compared to those which had not been seed grant awardees.All three selected full proposals had originated in a seed grant.T2S2 projects did not have a seed grant phase,but rather an outline and full proposal process.It seems that T2S2 projects depended largely on existing research partnerships because of the short response time for the call for proposals.2.3.10 Programme coordination A well-resourced programme coordination team in T2S1 enabled cross-project learning,community building,dissemination and profile-raising through annual in-person,cross-project workshops with project members(five over five years),other in-person and virtual workshops and capacity building activities,support for joint production of outputs,sessions at conferences and webinars for the wider public,communication and dissemination support through websites and social media,and nomination of T2S researchers for UN and other science-policy processes and consultations.Programme coordination in T2S2 was more complex as a result of the multilateral nature of the programme.Several funding partners contributed significant in-kind support for the programme through staff time for various coordination tasks,and all partners contributed to a common pot to fund certain essential coordination elements,including cross-project interaction and communications support.However,it was decided by the partners at the outset not to invest in a scientific coordination position,but rather to maximize the research funding.The funds available to convene in-person cross-project meetings were also proportionally significantly lower than for T2S1.In the event,the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted T2S2 to the extent that there were no in-person meetings between the kick-off and the final meeting,four years apart.However,many virtual meetings and events were held.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 13 2.3.11 Capacity development T2S1 included a skill-building component in the annual workshops and funded a research school requested and designed entirely by early career researchers.Programme-level capacity building opportunities were less prominent in T2S2,not least because of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.Overall,T2S2 was somewhat less free to experiment with programme design than T2S1 in various dimensions,and this had tangible effects.In T2S1,the Global South(co-)leadership and non-academic involvement brought equity and justice issues to the fore and corrected for imbalances in knowledge production.Cross-project interaction and learning was financially better supported in T2S1,opening important opportunities for epistemic advances beyond the scope of each project.By contrast,T2S2 was funded at nearly four times the level as T2S1,creating greater critical mass,and due to its more specific thematic focus may have offered greater potential for advancing pressing policy questions.3.Programme outcomes and challenges The programme design features and considerations outlined in the preceding section seem to have influenced the outcomes of the programmes in the ways suggested below.3.1 Understanding of transformation processes Reconceptualization of social transformation and methodological innovation were two important knowledge contributions of the two programmes that were clearly heavily influenced by the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches.These entailed reframing sustainability problems with multiple stakeholders and envisioning alternative processes and pathways towards more just and sustainable futures.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 14 Some of the most important high-level contributions of T2S1 projects to knowledge about transformation include:1.Developing the concept of transgressive learning as a form of transformative and transdisciplinary learning in transformations to sustainability.This included identifying the qualities and processes of transgressive learning that could challenge and transform unjust and unstainable norms and practices.These were characterized by co-engagement and co-critique,recognition of diversity,ethics and empathy,and reflections on the foundations for building alternative praxis and change.2.Developing a resistance-centred perspective on transformation that integrated environmental justice and sustainability considerations.This entailed integrating scientific and political rigour that is,engaging in the politics of knowledge praxis and contributing to epistemic justice by aiming to understand and take account of structural and systemic inequities in knowledge production and co-production processes.3.Developing action-oriented methodologies and frameworks for transformations to sustainability,such as the T-learning methodology(T-Learning),the Alternatives Transformation Framework and the Conflict Transformation Framework(ACKnowl-EJ)and alternative pathways to transformation(Pathways).The latter moved beyond understanding sustainability pathways as directions of change to trying to alter those directions,supporting alternative pathways with a commitment to environmental sustainability,poverty alleviation and social justice.4.Emphasizing transformation as being concerned with social justice,equality,flourishing and environmental sustainability through challenging societal norms and conditions of domination,injustice and unsustainability via cognitive and emotional learning,developing models of innovative solutions and learning and acting together in implementing these solutions(Ely,2021;Lotz-Sisitka et al.,2016;Rodriguez et al.,2023).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 15 5.The knowledge produced by the T2S1 programme influenced the development of subsequent individual research trajectories and of major international research initiatives,the research agendas of participating institutions and beyond and the work of some international bodies such as UNESCO(United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization).The T2S2 projects also developed conceptual and methodological innovations,including the following:1.Identifying assumptions,structural,socio-cultural(including visual),technical,political-economic,data legitimacy conditions and forces that ought to be addressed in just and sustainable transformations(e.g.,AGENTS,CON-VIVA,Gold Matters,IPACST and Waterproofing Data).2.Transformation as involving multi-scale,multi-space(patches of transformation)contestations,dialogue and co-creation both in the short and long term(e.g.,TAPESTRY and TRUEPATH).3.Methodological processes for facilitating vital collaborations across natural and social science fields in pursuit of transdisciplinarity,and more inclusive/grounded futures-oriented methodologies of approaching transformation(e.g.,CON-VIVA and H20T2S).4.How multiple actors,perspectives,praxes and positionalities can together shape transformations to sustainability.For example,AGENTS found that local knowledge and cultural memory are crucial for sustainability pathways because they maintain flourishing cultural and biological diversity(Londres et al.,2023).5.Sub-themes in the politics of transformation,which consider the diverse ways in which marginalized individuals,groups and organizations seek to sustain their livelihoods,beliefs and identities,often in the face of powerful dominant views and practices of the political and economic elites(e.g.,TRUEPATH and SecTenSusPeace).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 16 6.The dominant pathways to transformation create organizational and structural lock-ins that undermine place-based identities,wellbeing,mobilities and emancipations.Both generations of research projects made important progress in advancing research methodologies adapted to studying transformation processes,and both made novel,if incremental progress in understanding the importance of the six transformative cornerstones for understanding,governing and intervening in transformation processes.The importance of justice perspectives and the deepening of the critical social science lens on transformations stand out as the key overarching contributions of the programmes.3.2 Integrated transdisciplinary research partnerships and community building The T2S1 projects(known as TKNs)brought together academics,practitioners and stakeholders in participatory,equity-sensitive research processes involving SouthSouth and NorthSouth collaborations.Each TKN had to work hard to find a common language and understanding across epistemologically diverse and geographically widely dispersed members.The establishment of durable research partnerships and networks was considered to be one of the most valuable outcomes of the programme,as illustrated here:Perhaps the most important transformations were the relationships,friendships and collaborations formed.The project was hugely successful in creating generative almost sacred spaces at each of our project meetings as well as the programme-level T2S gatherings and Living Aulas.Our gatherings became spaces for playful experimentation,sharing,debate and intimacy.The sense of community was created that was immensely powerful and is already leading to numerous impacts,future projects and joint initiatives.Our early career,PhD and activist researchers,as well as our board members often commented that they had never been in an academic space that operated in such a way.(ACKnowl-EJ unpublished final project report,2020,p.12)Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 17 The coordination support of the ISSC/ISC furthermore allowed personal relationships and collaborations to develop across all three TKNs,to the extent that spontaneous cross-project collaboration continued,even after the end of the projects.The enthusiasm and commitment of the early career researchers in all three TKNs were instrumental in this respect.The composition and approach of the T2S2 research partnerships were quite similar to those of T2S1,although with less direct participation of non-academics as main partners and spread across fewer countries.It may have been easier to coordinate smaller project teams internally,but harder to establish working relationships across all 12 projects.Moreover,because T2S2 received somewhat less coordination and cross-project networking support from the leaner ISC team,and because of the long periods of shut-down during the COVID-19 pandemic,project interactions and cross-project learning were restricted to mostly online/virtual and shorter meetings.The difference in the number and strength of interactions across T2S2 projects compared to the TKNs was palpable to the programme coordinators,and was felt by them to have been an even greater loss because of the potentially much larger community of T2S2 members.At the final programme workshop in Paris in November 2022,several members of T2S2 projects who had not been at the kick-off meeting in 2018 remarked that they felt part of the wider community of T2S for the first time and realized what they had been missing.This suggests that in-person meetings are critical to creating lasting,personal connections and that virtual interaction can complement but not replace face-to-face connection.The inclusion of societal partners in knowledge co-production had created a greater sense of place,relevance and community and helped the academics gain important insights into the political nature of research and knowledge production partnerships.For example,the GoST project members noted the following:The political and performative nature of knowledge production also raises questions about the authority,agency and authority asserted in it and consequently about accountability,representativeness and legitimacy of experts who claim to speak for the group.(GoST unpublished final report,2022,p.13)Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 18 The added value of transdisciplinary research partnerships in T2S1 and T2S2 included the following:(i)intense reflection on researchers own socio-political positionality,(ii)the broadening of a systems perspective and(iii)non-academic stakeholders critical questioning of and contribution to research results.These observations from the T2S programmes reaffirm well-established insights on the benefits of transdisciplinary,engaged research in the literature.3.3 Research capacity for transformative research The T2S1 fostered the development of transdisciplinary research capacity in various ways.Much of it happened naturally,within the projects,by way of learning-by-doing in co-design and co-production.The projects afforded opportunities to researchers at all career stages to broaden and enhance their skills in transdisciplinary research methods,methodologies and theory development around transformations to sustainability.Capacity development also occurred through the emergence of an early career researchers network,knowledge exchange and skills-building components in the annual programme-level workshops,and a self-organized,programme-funded research school for early career researchers.T2S1 had privileged involvement of post-docs rather than PhD researchers,but several PhD students achieved their PhDs during or following the end of the projects.Capacity development for early career researchers was rated by programme members as one of the major programme outcomes.The T2S2 also contributed to researcher capacity development in the learning-by-doing mode within the projects.At programme level,there were fewer occasions and resources for the project members to meet across projects;moreover,the COVID pandemic arrived at the mid-point of the projects.The projects therefore engaged in quite frequent online peer learning and exchange during the pandemic.This itself was a capacity that had to be acquired for both the programme coordinators and the project members.On balance,the online interaction was not as rewarding as in-person opportunities,although some formal training could be delivered very effectively online,such as a science communication workshop for early career researchers.In a post-COVID world in which online interaction and teleworking have become much more common,and the environmental impact of flying is not decreasing,a balance must be struck between in-person and online meetings between efficiency and community.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 19 The final evaluation of the programme noted that the short duration of the projects(three years,but extended to 3.5 years),made it difficult to bring PhD projects to completion,particularly in transdisciplinary work.3.4 Changes in research practice The T2S1 contributed to change in research practice by establishing more equal relations between Global North and Global South partners.Both T2S1 and T2S2 promoted and demonstrated the critical role of social science in transformations to sustainability and social and epistemic justice via transdisciplinary research.In particular,the research programmes contributed to the following changes in research practice:Reframing challenges by considering the diverse perspectives,knowledges and power of stakeholders,especially those of the marginalized communities.Developing methodological innovations,frameworks and models that recognized and tapped into diverse perspectives and knowledges.Establishing trustful and mutually respectful knowledge co-production relationships between academics and societal partners.Validating hidden and undervalued types of knowledge and the perspectives and visions of marginalized peoples.Developing the capacities and agency of senior,mid and early career researchers and of local partners to jointly design and/or conduct research with diverse stakeholders for the development of new knowledge and potential solutions to complex,context-specific sustainability and justice challenges.Influencing the adoption of a participatory and consultative planning processes in policy and decision-making processes at the case level.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 20 3.5 Challenges The funding conditions produced some similar and some different challenges for the programmes.The short,three-year duration of the research projects:Transformations are typically lengthy,multiyear,even multidecadal processes.Any short-term research can only capture a snapshot of a transformation process.The ambition to understand the whole of transformations processes(as expressed in the calls for proposals for T2S1 and T2S2)was thus incommensurate with a three-year funding programme.Projects found it difficult not just to complete empirical research and synthesize findings,outcomes and insights given the complexity of the multicase,multicontext comparative,transdisciplinary research;they also were unable to stay engaged in the transformation processes after the formal project,given the high investment in relationship-and trust-building,and the expectations that raises for non-academic research partners.Lack of follow-up funding:This meant that conceptual insights,prototype methodologies,frameworks and tools could not be systematically tested,replicated,scaled and improved beyond the initial project funding.In addition,as mentioned above,the limited short-term engagement meant difficult expectation management and limited ability to understand transformations processes more fundamentally.One TKN described the discontinuity as scientifically wasteful,politically damaging and ethically questionable(Pathways,2021).Limited cross-project learning in T2S2:The more limited resources for programme coordination in T2S2 reduced the potential for cross-project learning,which was further exacerbated by COVID 19 and the limitation to short virtual cross-project meetings.Travel and gathering restrictions resulting from COVID-19(2020 and 2021)constrained fieldwork and data collection,and in-person meetings between the researchers in T2S2.It impacted some intended cross-TKN writing work after the closure of T2S1.Overall,COVID-19 slowed the implementation of research projects in T2S2,changed researchers and practitioners thinking on key challenges and probably undermined or at least delayed the practical work on transformations(ISC,2021).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 21 Complex financial administration processes:T2S1 operated with a common pot and distributed funding to one lead institution,which redistributed funds to the other 78 project partners around the world.The T2S1 project coordinators reported frustration with the administrative burden related to contracting and fund management across institutions with different currencies,financial systems and practices.T2S2 was in principle simpler,with each country funding its own researchers;however,in practice,receiving European Commission top-up funding creates a funding arrangement which is not necessarily simpler overall,but shifts the main administrative burden onto to the funders rather than the researchers institutions.In addition,the temporal alignment of multiple national funding process is difficult to achieve.The monitoring and evaluation approach:The T2S1 programme experimented with theory of change and logical framework approaches and searched mostly for evidence of multidimensional learning among the projects,in a relatively light reporting framework.The T2S2 programme applied a traditional reporting framework with an online reporting interface,but reporting requirements varied according to the respective direct funders of the project members.Both approaches were considered by the projects not to have been particularly helpful for learning.A major reason for this gap was the lack of a theorized approach to evaluation.It should also be noted that neither programme built in a follow-up evaluation/monitoring component.Despite these challenges,T2S funding provided great and rare opportunities that should not be taken for granted.These include funding international social science-led transdisciplinary research partnerships,which made social science and practitioner knowledge count;and enabling researchers from the Global South and Global North to co-produce knowledge.Co-leadership from the Global South was particularly appreciated in T2S1 because it helped researchers there to contribute knowledge as equal partners.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 22 4.Insights for programme design The insights relevant to programme design from T2S1 and T2S2 are similar in many ways.This may be attributed to the overlap in their research goals,the common social framing of sustainability challenges and international,transdisciplinary approach,similar funding conditions and programme management approaches.The main differences lie in the degree of Global South and practitioner involvement and programme coordination,which received more attention and resources in T2S1,and the greater thematic focus on governance and economy in T2S2.The insights from the programmes below are organized around 1)context,2)funding,3)people and 4)research practice.The insights are summarized into four categories and twelve guiding principles for research design,which may be used to inform future research programmes and calls for proposals.The principles take into account comments from programme funders,researchers and members of the coordination team of T2S1 and T2S2 during the reflection workshop held towards the end of 2022.Many of the insights also chime with learning from a comparative analysis of the T2S programmes with the Leading Integrated Research for Agenda 2030 in Africa 2023 programme,also coordinated by the ISC,which are captured in a chapter in the recent Handbook of Transdisciplinarity:Global Perspectives(Paulavets et al.,2023).4.1 Context 1.Research foci emerge from contextual drivers and the interests of funders.Social-ecological and political/policy contexts as well as the state of knowledge at any given point in time influence the focus of research funding programmes this is not surprising,and it was very evident in the T2S programmes.The interests and objectives of funders are also constitutive of research programme design and in multi-funder arrangements may align somewhat imperfectly,leading to working compromises.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 23 2.Insights into transformation processes and pathways emerge from studying interactions across multiple scales and over time.Studying transformations to sustainability entails engagement with complexity.Both sets of projects highlighted the need to understand cross-scale interactions in transformation processes,with particular emphasis on local cases and how these are situated within national,regional and/or global contexts,as well as giving attention to cross-sectoral or cross-industry interactions.The need to focus on local cases within their multi-scalar context is seen as particularly important when issues of equity and justice regarding sustainability outcomes are foregrounded(Ely,2021;Fisher et al.,2022;Lotz-Sisitka,2022;Fletcher et al.,2023;Londres et al.,2023;Rodriguez et al.,2023).A combination of a cross-scalar lens with a historical perspective is necessary for understanding and potentially influencing transformative change processes and pathways,which are neither smooth nor linear(Brondizio et al.,2021).History,context and interests For transformations-focused programmes,designers should pay adequate attention to history,context and the interests and power of stakeholders,as they are a major part of both the problems and the potential solutions.Stakeholders,including funders,also set boundaries on the matters of concern.It is important to be aware of both dominant and less visible histories,contexts and interests,and the tendency of research programming to focus on the visible and dominant,thereby perpetuating unjust power relations.System and scale Transformations-focused research programmes should encourage system change at the site level,but also across scales,sectors and structures,conscious of complexity and uncertainty,to be truly transformational.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 24 4.2 Funding 3.Flexible funding and governance are required for complex,multilevel,transdisciplinary research programmes.The T2S programmes underlined the importance of not over-designing,that is,of allowing and creating spaces for emergence,learning,consultation and collective decision-making.This entails integrating possibilities and resources for co-design,co-production,outreach,scaling and follow-up activities.In this way,emerging insights,opportunities and challenges can be integrated.Flexible funding is needed to enable adaptation to complex changes e.g.,in conflict-affected areas,under changing legal regimes or during pandemics.Flexible funding needs to be accompanied by a programme governance structure that accommodates and is adaptable to different institutional and national particularities and changes.Funders as well as funding mechanisms must be flexible enough to accommodate changes that occur during the transdisciplinary research process given its emergent nature,and particularly when research is taking place in countries that are experiencing critical situations(of political,economic or environmental natures),and where activities need to be constantly adapted to changing contexts.Sida and the Belmont Forum and NORFACE funders were generally accommodating in these situations,and the European Commission also showed flexibility within its limits,but ultimately some hard deadlines had to be imposed.4.An appropriately resourced programme coordination unit is essential for supporting cross-project learning and knowledge production and interactions with the wider research community.International,transdisciplinary research programmes on social transformations are administratively complex and need to be adequately resourced,at programme and project level.This may seem a truism,but it needs to be emphasized in a context in which coordination funds(or glue money)are difficult to secure.Both at programme level and project level,resources needed for technical and scientific coordination and communications support should not be underestimated or sacrificed,or added value will be lost.Project budgets should include sufficient resources for administrative,financial and communications Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 25 support.Training and support for the administration of grant funding in the beneficiary institutions may be needed.Programme coordination brought a great deal of added value to the projects and the field of research,which was apparent from the difference in resourcing and opportunities between T2S1 and T2S2.Programme coordination was still important in T2S2,but was less well-resourced and from the mid-point of the programme had to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic and the shift to digital-only interaction.Even though the consortium provided a reasonable amount of funding for scientific meetings and dissemination,the lack of a dedicated scientific programme coordinator for T2S2 was finally considered to have weakened the programme and its potential impact.5.Short research project periods undermine the effectiveness of research processes.Three years is too short for developing a sustained programme to build understanding of social transformations to sustainability.This is in part due to the length of transformation processes,but also due to the nature of international,comparative,transdisciplinary research where this capacity is not already established.It takes significant time to accomplish(i)complex contracting processes across different institutional financial management practices,(ii)project co-design,(iii)conducting empirical work as part of the social science work required to generate necessary information and evidence,(iv)building researcher capacity and agency and(v)reflecting on and communicating the emerging knowledge.Lack of follow-up funding undermines impact by not enabling the testing,improvement and wider application of conceptual insights,new methodologies,frameworks and tools.This fails to meet the expectations of research communities and stakeholders and is potentially counterproductive.Generally,there is a need for a shift in research and capacity building funding from short-term and project-based models to a more sustained long-term process to allow for the synthesis and testing of or application of knowledge on sustainability,for development of theory and for continuity of engagement with communities.This would allow for more cross-case and cross-project analysis and ultimately stronger theoretical contributions to knowledge(as opposed to methodological or praxis-Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 26 based contributions).Research proposals should include reflection on the exit strategy how they plan to wind up the collaboration with communities after the project ends.Research coordinators must also factor in time after the programme to track and follow up on and support outputs and outcomes.6.Research funding for Global South researchers as equal partners in international research helps them directly contribute to global knowledge and structurally rectify epistemological injustices.Historically,the Global South has contributed less to global knowledge on transformations to sustainability partly due to resource constraints.The T2S1 funding conditions,which included(co)leadership from the Global South,demonstrated that funders have a crucial role to play in correcting the conditions under which Global South researchers can equally contribute to producing global knowledge on transformation.7.Funding for non-academic research partners is critical to enabling them to make a meaningful contribution.Current academic research funding systems generally cannot finance the participation of non-academic participants,which severely curtails their capacity to contribute to research,and therefore for transdisciplinary research to be realized.The T2S1 programme enabled non-academic partners to be financed for their participation,which changed the power dynamics in the knowledge partnerships.There is a need for more funding that is inclusive of or directly targeted at the Global South and at non-academic partners,to foster more equitable relationships between partners and to counteract the risk of supporting extractive research dominated by Northern academic traditions.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 27 8.Monitoring,evaluation and learning approaches in transdisciplinary research programming need innovation.It is well discussed in the literature that conventional research evaluation approaches are not well adapted to transdisciplinary research.Neither T2S1 nor T2S2 approaches to monitoring,evaluation and learning,at programme or project level,were innovative,although both had positive features.Research programming needs to experiment and innovate more to get the most out of the opportunities for reflexivity and learning provided by transdisciplinary research,without imposing disproportionate reporting burdens.4.3 People 9.Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research with a social framing enhances collaboration and can empower marginalized groups.Working in research teams that bring together individuals from different countries,disciplines,groups of practice and sectors of society creates the conditions for different knowledges,perspectives and interests to interact and increases the chances of developing a more complete and nuanced understanding of any challenge,as well as more widely acceptable and feasible solutions.Transdisciplinary research on transformations to sustainability pays attention to the underlying social dimensions of sustainability challenges and integrates marginalized social groups and voices,drawing on their relatively invisible,alternative imaginaries and practices.This can help to contest,break or subvert unjust and unsustainable dominant pathways;reveal and amplify previously hidden alternative pathways;or shape new,recombinant pathways,within the context of epistemological plurality,social justice Targeted,long-term and adaptive programming and funding Programme design should aim to enable programmatic reflexivity,learning and adaptive flexibility,in the long term,to accommodate experimentation,emergence and the unpredictable challenges and opportunities of doing transdisciplinary research,particularly in the domain of social transformation.Dedicated funding for programme and project coordination and for research and infrastructure in the Global South and for the participation of non-academic partners,is essential.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 28 and environmental sustainability.These are well-established benefits of transdisciplinary research,and were confirmed in the T2S programmes.10.Capacity building is transformation.The process and outcomes of capacity development activities in the T2S programmes suggest the importance of facilitating intergenerational learning.Researchers develop emotionally and cognitively while also expanding their spheres of influence and contributing to societal change.Capacity building and empowerment are essential parts of the transformation process,as they result in enhanced abilities to understand,see,participate in and catalyse transformation.Thus,embedding capacity building as a core part in transdisciplinary research programmes enhances the programmes transformative outcomes.It was also clear from both programmes that the skills required for transdisciplinary research need to be continually tested,developed for and adapted to context.Knowledge exchange,training and capacity building activities should be an integral part of any transdisciplinary research funding programme,and particularly,but not only,for early career scientists.Building capacity for co-production Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research with a social framing is fundamental to advancing co-produced and comprehensive understanding of and practice for transformation.Greater collaboration across the social and natural sciences is needed,as well as greater recognition of and ability to work with different kinds of knowledge.It is important to offer opportunities for co-design of research proposals and for fostering skills for transdisciplinary work in the early stages of a programme.Co-design is a difficult process,especially with new partners,and it is important to ensure that research programme design provides enough time and support for this critical step.The skills required for transdisciplinary research need to be continually tested,developed for and adapted to context.Knowledge exchange,training and capacity building activities should be an integral part of any transdisciplinary research funding programme,and particularly,but not only,for early career scientists.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 29 4.4 Research practice 11.Transformative research involves a transformation in knowledge production.Transformations research intends to produce not only new knowledge(in concepts and processes)but also to contribute to the transformation of the social-ecological and epistemological conditions that are unsustainable and unjust.This was seen in the research approach,process and outcomes of the projects.The T2S projects showed that transformation entails reframing of sustainability and justice challenges,which lays the basis for reframing transformation concepts,frameworks,methodologies,pathways and solutions based on multiple,interacting perspectives and knowledges.This is conducted in a process of politicizing and pluralizing transformation.Research programming for transformations to sustainability should aim to accommodate and support action-and justice-oriented,transdisciplinary research.12.The role of the researcher is not just technical/academic but also political.Transformations to sustainability research requires researchers not to see themselves as academics who possess more or superior knowledge than non-academics,and rather to be reflexive researchers and change agents.The ethics of doing care-full research requires the researcher to practice political rigour,which entails engaging in difficult conversations with the community to understand the structural and systemic issues they face and enable them to engage with them more effectively.At the same time,the researchers positionality shapes the roles and influence they might have in a transformation process.In a transdisciplinary role,researchers may add significant value by contributing directly to the governance of transformation processes as facilitators(trying to level the playing field or to create or support safe spaces for participation),catalysts(trying to speed-up ongoing processes or support active resistance movements)or change agents in a political process aiming at deliberate transformation(Bastiaensen et al.,2021).These researcher roles come with different kinds of power,which is linked to the researchers perspectives and values,which can either enable or constrain the visibility of certain imaginaries and practices in transformation processes.The imaginaries and practices that are made visible inform the building of new Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 30 authoritative knowledge providing legitimacy and guidance to collective knowledge co-production efforts.Outcome and process:Frame both outcome and process purposes for a research funding programme,because both have implications for sustainability and social justice.Contribution:Design research programmes that produce not just context-specific thematic,theoretical or methodological advances but that also contribute to wider and just transformational processes within science and multiple fields of study.There are particular pressures on transdisciplinary researchers to produce both traditional academic outputs and outputs targeting and serving non-academic partners and publics;and this moreover in an increasingly digital world.Many T2S researchers reported spending significant amounts of time producing or co-producing non-academic outputs that were not formally recognized or valued by their institutions,although encouraged and expected by the T2S programme funders.Many also reported needing support to produce non-traditional and more diverse forms of outputs and to make these seen using new and digital media.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 31 5.Conclusions The funders of the two T2S programmes have made a significant contribution to generating knowledge for transformations to sustainability that should not only be commended but should also be built on and expanded.The two programmes offer important insights into the effects of programme design features that point to the need for the following:Sustained,long-term funding for transdisciplinary transformations to sustainability research;Dedicated funding for Global South research leadership;Space for learning and capacity building between academic and non-academic communities,between generations and between places.Care should be taken to learn from innovative funding programmes and to adjust them,rather than to revert to traditional models,especially in contexts where rapid learning is essential,such as in the face of existential challenges.At the same time,patience is needed for the application of learning about transformations to sustainability,which may unfold slowly and silently.Innovation in research funding building on the T2S experience could help make a huge difference for science and for urgently needed social transformation processes.Science could play a much more significant role if funders would support science to unleash its power in collaboration with its societal partners.Funders require both the commitment and courage to create common pools of transdisciplinary research funding that incentivizes researchers and science systems to produce societally relevant and usable knowledge(ISC,2021b).Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 32 References Bastiaensen,J.,Huybrechs,F.,Merlet,P.,Romero,M.and Van Hecken,G.2021.Fostering bottom-up actor coalitions for transforming complex rural territorial pathways.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.49,pp.4249.Boehm,S.,Jeffery,L.,Levin,K.,Hecke,J.,Schumer,C.,Fyson,C.,Majid,A.,Jaeger,J.,et al.2022.State of Climate Action 2022.Berlin and Cologne,Germany,San Francisco,CA,and Washington,DC,Bezos Earth Fund,Climate Action Tracker,Climate Analytics,ClimateWorks Foundation,New Climate Institute,the United Nations Climate Change High-Level Champions and World Resources Institute.https:/doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.22.00028.Brito,L.and Smith,M.S.2012.State of the Planet Declaration,Planet Under Pressure:New Knowledge Towards Solutions Conference,London,2629 March 2012,https:/council.science/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/state_of_planet_declaration.pdf Brondizio,E.,Andersson,K.,de Castro,F.,Futemma,C.,Salk,C.,Teng,M.,Londres,M.,Tourne,D.,et al.2021.Making place-based sustainability initiatives visible in the Brazilian Amazon.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.49,pp.6678.Ely,A.(ed.)(2021).Transformative Pathways to Sustainability:Learning Across Disciplines,Cultures and Contexts(1st ed.).Routledge.https:/doi.org/10.4324/9780429331930 Fazey,I.et al.2018.Ten essentials for action-oriented and second-order energy transitions,transformations and climate change research.Energy Research&Social Science,Vol.40,pp.5470.Fisher,E.,Brondizio,E.and Boyd,E.2022.Critical social science perspectives on transformations to sustainability.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.55,https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101160.Fletcher,R.Massarella,K.,Ferraz,K.,Kiwango,W.,Komi,S.,Mabele,M.,Marchini,S.,Nygren,A.,et al.2023.The production-protection nexus:How political-economic processes influence prospects for transformative change in human-wildlife interactions.Global Environmental Change,Vol.82.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102723 Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 33 Future Earth.2013 Future Earth Initial Design:Report of the Transition Team.Paris:International Council for Science(ICSU).GoST project.2022.Final report.Unpublished.Government of Sweden.2016.Government Communication 2016/17:60.Policy framework for Swedish development cooperation and humanitarian assistance.Stockholm:Sweden.Griggs,D.J.,Nilsson,M.,Stevance,A.and McCollum,D.(eds.)(2017).A Guide to SDG Interactions:From Science to Implementation.Paris,ICSU.Haraway,D.(2016).Staying with the Trouble:Making kin in the Chthulucene.Durham,NC:Duke University Press.International Science Council.2021a.Transformations to Sustainability programme:Annual report 2020.Unpublished.International Science Council.2021b.Unleashing Science:Delivering Missions for Sustainability,Paris,France,International Science Council.ISSC.2012.The Transformative Cornerstones of Social Science Research for Global Change.Paris,International Social Science Council.pp.1622.ISSC/UNESCO.2013.World Social Science Report 2013:Changing Global Environments.Paris,OECD Publishing and UNESCO Publishing.Leach,M.,Scoones,I.and Stirling,A.2010.Dynamic Sustainabilities:Technology,Environment,Social Justice.London,Earthscan.Londres,M.,Salk,C.,Andersson,K.,Teng,M.,Brondizio,E.,Russo Lopes,G.Siani,S.,Molina-Garzn,A.,et al.2023.Place-based solutions for global social-ecological dilemmas:an analysis of locally grounded,diversified and cross-scalar initiative in the Amazon.Global Environmental Change,Vol.82.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102718 Loorbach,D.,Frantzeskaki,N.and Avelino,F.2017.Sustainability transitions research:transforming science and practices for societal change.Annual Review of Environment and Resources,Vol.42,pp.599626.Lotz-Sisitka,H.B.,Belay Ali,M.,Mphepo,G.,Chaves,M.,Macintyre,T.,Pesanayi,T.,Wals.A.,Mukute,M.,et al.2016.Co-designing research on transgressive learning in times of climate change.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.20,pp.5055.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2016.04.004 Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 34 Lotz-Sisitka,H.B.2022.Transformative,transgressive,transdisciplinary and together:Elaborating the nature of transformative learning in transformations to sustainability.Draft unpublished article.Massarella K.,Nygren,A.,Fletcher,R.,Buscher,B.,Kiwango,W.A.,Komi,S.,Krauss,J.E.,Mabele,M.B.,et al.2021.Transformation beyond conservation:how critical social science can contribute to a radical new agenda in biodiversity conservation.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.49,pp.7987.Moore,J.W.2016.(ed.)Anthropocene or Capitalocene?Nature,History,and the Crisis of Capitalism.Oakland,CA,PM Press.Moser,S.2016.Can science on transformation transform science?Lessons from co-design.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.20,pp.106115.DOI:10.1016/j.cosust.2016.10.007 Olsson,P.,Galaz,V.and Boonstra,W.J.2014.Sustainability transformations:a resilience perspective.Ecology and Society.Vol.19,p.1.Pathways.2021.Pathways Knowledge Network follow-up report.Unpublished.Paulavets,K.,Moore,S.and Denis,M.(2023).Advancing transdisciplinary research in the Global South,in Lawrence,R.(ed.),Handbook of Transdisciplinarity:Global Perspectives.Edward Elgar Publishing.https:/doi.org/10.4337/9781802207835.00027 Raworth,K.2012.A safe and just space for humanity:Can we live within the doughnut?Oxfam Discussion Papers.Oxford,Oxfam GB.Rodriguez,I.,Temper,L.and Walter,M.(eds.).forthcoming.Just Transformations:Grassroots struggles for alternative futures.Pluto Press.Steffen,W.,Broadgate,W.,Deutsch,L.,Gaffney,O.and Ludwig,C.2015.The Trajectory of the Anthropocene:The great acceleration.The Anthropocene Review.Temper,L.and Del Bene,D.2016.Transforming knowledge creation for environmental and epistemic justice.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,Vol.20,pp.4149.University of Oslo.2013.Proceedings of Transformation in a Changing Climate,1921 June 2013,Oslo,Norway,University of Oslo.Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 35 Appendix Research projects funded under the T2S programmes T2S1 Transformative Knowledge Networks Academic-Activist Co-Produced Knowledge for Environmental Justice(ACKnowl-EJ)Ten case studies in Argentina,Bolivia,India,Venezuela,Lebanon,Turkey,Belgium and Canada Transformative Pathways to Sustainability:Learning across disciplines,contexts and cultures(Pathways)Six regional hubs working in three pairs of similar sustainability challenges:ArgentinaUK(agriculture/food systems),MexicoIndia(water and waste)and KenyaChina(energy resources).A seventh project member was based in Sweden.Transgressive Social Learning for Social-Ecological Sustainability in Times of Climate Change(T-Learning)12 cases in nine countries:Colombia,Ethiopia,Malawi,South Africa,Zimbabwe,India,Vietnam,Sweden and Netherlands.T2S2 Projects AGENTS:Amazonian Governance to Enable Transformations to Sustainability Brazil,Bolivia and Peru CON-VIVA:Towards Convivial Conservation:Governing HumanWildlife Interactions in the Anthropocene USA,Finland,Brazil and Tanzania Gold Matters:Sustainability Transformations in Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining:A Multi-Actor and Trans-Regional Perspective Brazil,Burkina Faso,French Guiana,Ghana,Guinea,Suriname and Uganda Programme Design for Transformations to Sustainability Research 36 GoST:Governance of Socio-technical Transformations Kenya,India,UK,USA and Germany H2O-T2S:Water and Transformation to Sustainability in Urban Fringe Areas India IPACST:The Role of Intellectual Property to Accelerate Sustainability Transitions Germany,UK,Sweden and India MISTY:Migration,Transformation and Sustainability Bangladesh,Ghana,Mozambique,Belgium,Netherlands and USA SecTenSusPeace:Securing,Sustainable Peace?The challenges of localizing land registration in conflict-affected countries Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC)T2GS:Transformations to Groundwater Sustainability:joint learnings from humangroundwater interactions Algeria,Chile,India,Morocco,Peru,Syria,Tanzania and USA TAPESTRY:Pathways to Sustainability in Marginal Environments:responding to climate change uncertainties in marginal environments in South Asia India and Bangladesh TRUEPATH:Transforming Unsustainable Pathways in Agricultural Frontiers:fostering bottom-up actor coalitions for transforming complex rural territorial pathways Nicaragua Waterproofing Data:Engaging Stakeholders in Sustainable Flood Risk Management for Urban Resilience Brazil,Germany and the UK
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2024 CFA Institute.All rights reserved.July 2024SUSTAINABILITYCFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EURoberto Silvestri and Josina KamerlingSURVEY REPORTIntroductionThe European Commission Action Plan on Sustainable Finance,announced in 2018,has been one of the main priorities of the European Commission agenda for the past six years.The plan had the ambitious objective of reorienting capital flows toward a more sustainable economy and,in general,ensuring that the finance sector plays a key role in the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming less than 2 degrees Celsius.Since 2018,the European Union has adopted the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation(SFDR),the Taxonomy Regulation,and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive(CSRD),while the European Securities and Markets Authority(ESMA)has delivered several technical standards and guidance documents related to the aforementioned pieces of legislation,as well as a report on greenwashing(ESMA 2023).In 2021,CFA Institute conducted a global survey of its members on the latest environmental,social,and governance(ESG)matters(CFA Institute 2021).The questionnaire focused on the incorporation of ESG factors into investment analysis and decisions as well as the development of sustainability reporting standards for publicly traded companies.The survey results showed that most global investors believe that ESG incorporation should not be mandated by regulators but instead should be driven by customers and their investment managers.Furthermore,investment managers should prioritise financial materiality in any decision regarding the integration of ESG issues into their investment performance.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|2The European Sustainability Reporting Standards(ESRS),developed by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group(EFRAG),are currently in force.These standards apply to all companies that are subject to CSRD,and they cover ESG issues.The standards follow the double materiality principle,requiring companies to report financial risks and opportunities stemming from sustainability issues and the impact of company activities on society and the environment.In 2023,the International Sustainability Standards Board(ISSB),a recently established standard-setting body,issued sustainability-related financial disclosure standards,which were endorsed by the International Organization of Securities Commissions(IOSCO).1 The goal of such standards is to facilitate the harmonisation of a global framework on sustainability disclosures.EFRAG and the European Commission have claimed a high level of interoperability between the ESRS and the ISSB standards.This alignment is expected to prevent unnecessary double-reporting by European companies.Steering good corporate governance practices in the EU poses a particular challenge for the European Commission and the European Supervisory Authorities(ESAs).Traditionally,corporate governance falls within the jurisdiction of EU member states and is regulated under their respective company laws.Consequently,EU regulators have faced constraints in shaping better corporate governance standards.Nevertheless,EU institutions took a step forward with the introduction of the Shareholder Rights Directive II(adopted in 2017),which sets out EU rules on the protection of shareholders and their rights.However,enhanced measures facilitating cross-border engagement and ensuring greater investor protection in the EU are still needed.Given these significant regulatory developments in the EU,in December 2023,CFA Institute undertook a new survey on the current and future direction of the EU regulatory policy on ESG investing.The goal is to gain deeper insights from 1See the ISSB standards at www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/.CONTENTSIntroduction pg.1|Key Findings pg.3|Policy Recommendations pg.3|Survey Methodology pg.4|Survey Results pg.4|Highlight 1.EU Legislative Framework on Sustainable Finance pg.19|Highlight 2.The Role of EFRAG and the Platform on Sustainable Finance pg.21|Bibliography pg.23CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|3CFA Institute members in the EU on the perceived benefits and challenges of the EU legislation on sustainable finance,to propose solutions to address ESG risks and issues,and to offer regulatory recommendations to enhance ESG regulatory measures without weakening investor protection.Key FindingsEU legislative efforts on sustainable finance and the growing demand from European investors of sustainability investments have been the key drivers pushing asset managers to increasingly incorporate ESG factors into their investment strategies.The lack of reliable ESG data,the substantial costs for the collection of such data,and the need for personnel training on ESG incorporation and sustainability thinking represent the main challenges to implementing the SFDR and the EU Taxonomy for asset managers and companies.The excessive volume and intricacies of sustainability information are confusing retail investors,making it difficult for them to use such information to make sound investment decisions.The complexity of sustainability reporting is expected to increase significantly in 2025,when larger European issuers will begin reporting under the ESRS framework.EU legislators should focus on clarification of the language and terminology used in Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR to enhance the quality of ESG disclosures and reduce the perception of greenwashing.The main challenges related to the EU Taxonomy Regulation are the complexity of disclosure information and the lack of qualitative and comparable ESG data.These issues are the primary obstacles to achieving the regulations objectives and its effective implementation.ESG ratings are not considered helpful for investors because of the significant variance in outcomes and lack of trust in their methodologies.To mitigate greenwashing risks,global regulators could collaborate to find alignment on a common definition of sustainability and the compatibility of disclosure requirements.Furthermore,requiring full transparency of ESG ratings and methodologies and better clarifying key concepts within the EU sustainability-related rules can help reduce the perception of greenwashing.Policy RecommendationsTo better succeed in the goal of redirecting capital flows toward sustainable activities,EU regulators should continue to drive the international agenda on sustainability.They should focus,however,on developing more tailored transition legislation concerning ESG disclosure requirements and taxonomies to ensure alignment with financial market participants needs.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|4EU regulators should further provide clear and consistent ESG terminology throughout the entire legislative framework on sustainable finance.Clearer definitions would contribute to promoting consistency in the implementation of ESG-related legislation and minimising diverse interpretation of rules and standards.Within its framework on sustainable finance,EU regulators should increasingly take into consideration the significant challenge posed by unreliable ESG data and the associated costs for data collection and training of staff.Such issues are currently limiting compliance with the present disclosure requirements outlined under the EU legislative framework on sustainable finance.In the context of the ongoing review of the SFDR,the European Commission should better clarify the fund categorisation system for the disclosure requirements under Articles 8 and 9 of the regulation.A clearer approach could reduce the complexity of ESG disclosures for investors and mitigate greenwashing risks.Finally,EU regulators should address the complexity of ESG ratings and the divergent methodologies used by providers.The introduction of disclosure requirements,as foreseen by the proposed regulation on ESG rating activities,is likely to increase trust in ESG rating providers and enhance comparability of their evaluations.Survey MethodologyA survey was sent to CFA Institute members in EU member states from 5 December 2023 to 15 December 2023.We received 435 valid responses,with a response rate of 2.7%.Most CFA Institute members who responded to the survey are currently employed in the asset and wealth management sector(58%).The greatest number of responses came from Germany,the Netherlands,Italy,and Greece.Survey ResultsIn this section,we discuss the survey responses in detail.Question 1The first question of the survey asks CFA Institute members in the EU about primary aspects that are most likely to influence asset managers decisions to consider ESG information in their investment strategies and products.Responses clearly show that compliance with EU disclosure rules and greater investor demand for ESG-focused investment products(both constituting 60%of the surveyed answers)are the most motivating reasons for investment managers to consider ESG factors(see Exhibit 1).These responses are not surprising,considering the well-established EU regulatory framework on CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|5sustainable finance and the growing appetite for sustainability investments,particularly among the new generation of investors in the EU.Question 2The next two questions we asked aimed to provide an initial assessment of the EU strategy on sustainable finance.Question 2 of the survey,which seeks CFA Institute members views on the current EU approach,provided mixed results.More than 40%of respondents judge EU regulatory endeavours on sustainable finance in a positive manner.In particular,as shown in Exhibit 2,22%of respondents believe that the EU is promoting and advancing the international agenda on sustainable finance but that it should be more ambitious in order to achieve medium-and long-term sustainability goals.Another 20%of respondents advocated for the EU to continue to steer the international agenda on sustainable finance.Conversely,a significant proportion of CFA Institute members expressed criticism about the EU regulatory approach.Specifically,22%of respondents Exhibit 1.Reasons for Considering ESG Factors in Investment Strategies and Products2%51%0 0Pp%Dont knowOther factorEthical and moral considerationsin investment decision makingCompetitive advantage in the marketPotential financial benefits,such as riskmitigation and long-term value creationInvestor demand for ESG-focusedinvestment productsRegulatory complianceWhat are the top two factors influencing asset managers decisions to consider ESG(environmental,social,and governance)criteria in their investment strategies and products?Please select up to 2.N=430CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|6reported that the EUs efforts are confusing and the lack of reliable ESG data makes integrating ESG factors and considerations in investment decisions not worth the effort.The implementation of the CSRD and the application of ESRS,however,are expected to enhance the availability of reliable ESG data.Finally,an additional 17%of respondents remarked that the EUs ESG policy goes too far because the issue is not a market priority in the region.Question 3Question 3 refers to the impact of the EU sustainable finance regulation on fostering growth in investments associated with sustainable development and energy transition.As shown in Exhibit 3,the majority of survey respondents(49%)believe that EU policies are not effectively contributing to achieving the goal of redirecting capital flows toward sustainable investments in the EU.Notably,35%of respondents acknowledged that investments in Exhibit 2.Views on the Current EU Approach on Sustainable FinanceThe EU efforts are confusing,and the lack of reliableESG data does not make it worth integrating ESGconsiderations in investment decisions2%4 %0%5 %Dont knowOtherThe EU agenda on ESG is diverging too much fromother regulatory authorities agenda.The EU shouldfacilitate a more coordinated approach with otherregulators at the international levelThe EU is pushing too far on ESG aspects that are nota market priority in the EU regionThe EU is driving the international agenda onsustainable finance and should continue to do soThe EU is contributing to advancing the internationalagenda on sustainable finance but should do much moreto achieve its medium-and long-term sustainability goalsWhat best describes your view on the EU approach on sustainable finance?N=431CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|7sustainable development and energy transition have risen in the EU but believe this increase is not a direct result of the EU policy on sustainable finance.Furthermore,another 14%of respondents were even more critical,saying that the EU legislative framework on sustainable finance has not contributed to the increase in sustainability-related investments.Nevertheless,a significant proportion of survey respondents(42%)are confident that the rise in EU investments related to sustainable development and energy transition is a direct consequence of the EUs initiatives on sustainable finance.Exhibit 3.Impact of the EU Legislation on Sustainable Finance in Redirecting Capital Flows toward Sustainable Development and Energy Transition425%9%0%5 %05E%The EU legislativeframework onsustainable financehas contributed toincreasing investmentsin sustainabledevelopment andenergy transitionInvestments insustainabledevelopmentand energytransition areon the rise.However,such an increase insustainable investmentsis not the directresult of the EUsustainable financeinitiativesThe legislativeframework onsustainable financeis not having animpact on thecapital flows tosustainabledevelopmentand to energytransitionDont knowWhich best describes your view on how the EU sustainable finance regulation is succeedingin increasing capital flows to sustainable development and to energy transition?N=431CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|8Question 4Question 49 focus more specifically on the implications of the EU SFDR.Question 4 looks at the biggest hurdles that asset managers have encountered so far in the implementation of the SFDR.As Exhibit 4 shows,an overwhelming majority of respondents(65%)emphasised that the lack of reliable ESG data represents the main challenge when attempting to comply with the regulation.Other relevant issues have arisen in our survey,including the increasing costs borne by financial markets and financial advisers when collecting ESG data and the shortage of personnel with ESG and data collection expertise,as well as the lack of clarity in the regulation and the ESMA Technical Standards.Question 5Question 5 gives survey respondents the opportunity to provide more details about the seriousness of the aforementioned challenges related to the implementation of the SFDR.Respondents highlighted that ESG data are not yet sufficiently accurate,because different ESG data providers measure these data Exhibit 4.Challenges in the Implementation of the SFDR for Asset Managers65E%9%6%6%1%0 0Pp%The lack ofreliableESG dataHigher coststo collectESG data/lack of skilledpersonnel onESG and datacollectionThe lack ofclarity of theregulatoryframeworkand the ESMATechnicalStandardsThe tighttimeline for theimplementationof the ESMATechnicalStandardsDont knowOtherchallenge(s)There areno challengesWhat are the biggest challenges,if any,for asset managers,in the implementation of the EU Sustainable FinanceDisclosure Regulation(SFDR)?Please select up to 2 options that you believe are most challenging.N=380CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|9differently.Data are not clearly defined and are subject to various interpretations,leading to a lack of consistency and comparability of information.Furthermore,the large costs related to ESG data collection and training of personnel to build ESG expertise and learn about ESG incorporation pose a significant burden for small companies and asset managers,which face the risk of being driven out of business.Question 6Question 6 focuses on the challenges for retail investors with regard to the information disclosed under the SFDR.As Exhibit 5 shows,a notable 45%of survey respondents indicated that the quantity and complexity of ESG information often lead to confusion among retail investors when making an investment decision.Similarly,a relevant number of members(36%)said that the current regulatory approach based on the disclosure requirements under Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR is too complex and makes it difficult for investors to fully understand the degree of sustainability impact for funds in which they are considering investing.Exhibit 5.Challenges in the Implementation of the SFDR for Retail InvestorsWhat are the biggest challenges,if any,for retail investors,in the implementation of the EU SFDR?Please select up to 2 options that you believe are most challenging.45632%4%3%0%5 %05EP%Increasedconfusionbecause of thequantity andtechnicality ofthe informationthat they receivebefore making anESG investmentdecisionIt is difficult tounderstand thedegree ofsustainabilityimpact offunds thatare classifiedunderArticles 8 and 9Higher chancesof beingvictims ofgreenwashingpracticesIt is difficultto comparebetween ESGproducts asrequireddisclosuresare notstandardisedand comparableacrossjurisdictionsAdditional coststhat assetmanagers passon to themwhen complyingwith the SFDRrequirementsDont knowOtherchallengeN=377CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|10Question 7The survey also examines the advantages of the SFDR framework.Question 7 looks at the greatest benefits of the disclosures mandated under the regulation.As shown in Exhibit 6,30%of survey respondents pointed out that the required disclosures have been stimulating the growth in sustainability investments in the EU,and a notable 24%of respondents highlighted that the framework has yet to generate any benefits.Other advantages identified by respondents include the enhanced comparability of sustainability information on companies and products across the EU(19%)and the introduction of a clear way for asset managers to categorise their funds based on their level of sustainability(17%).Question 8Question 8 focuses on the possible legislative review of Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR.Survey responses show that CFA Institute members advocate Exhibit 6.Benefits of the SFDR Disclosures30$%7%3%0%5 %05%Encouraginggreatersustainableinvestmentsin the EUThere areno benefitsEnsure thatinvestors caneasily comparesustainabilityinformationabout companiesand productsacross the EUIntroducing aclear way forasset managersto classify theirfunds based ontheir level ofsustainabilityDont knowOtherWhat is the greatest benefit,if any,of the disclosures that are required under the EU SFDR?N=378CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|11for important changes to the principles.In particular,as Exhibit 7 shows,25%of survey respondents call for an overhaul of the regulatory approach based on Articles 8 and 9 and favour the development of a more refined and precise EU-level categorisation system,with the aim of improving disclosures and mitigating greenwashing practices.In the same vein,24%of respondents expressed interest in more targeted amendments to Articles 8 and 9 to clarify the fund classification system for both investors and market participants.Question 9The last question related to the SFDR looks at the approach CFA Institute should take toward the challenges stemming from the implementation of this regulation.The vast majority of respondents believe that CFA Institute has a role in addressing the challenges resulting from the required disclosures under the SFDR.As Exhibit 8 shows,48%of survey respondents would be interested in CFA Institute providing seminars and information sessions,which would be targeted to asset managers,on SFDR technical standards(especially on principal adverse impact indicators).In addition,41%of respondents suggested that CFA Institute should support local societies in the EU in their advocation Exhibit 7.Revision of the Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR2%7$%0%5 %0%Make no changes to Articles 8 and 9 as this classificationsystem provides sufficient disclosure and preventsgreenwashingOtherIntegrate the current SFDR classification with othercriteria,such as MiFID sustainability preferences,by creating different categories/graduationsFocus on greater interoperability of the SFDR legislationwith other regulations in other jurisdictionsDont knowMake targeted changes to Articles 8 and 9 so that thefund classification system becomes clearer forinvestors and market participantsOverhaul the current approach for Articles 8 and 9 anddevelop a more appropriate and precise EU-level productcategorisation,with the aim to improve disclosures andreduce greenwashingWhat approach,if any,should the European Commission adopt for the revision of Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR?N=379CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|12efforts for ethical sustainable finance and against greenwashing practices.Lastly,39%of respondents believe CFA Institute should develop and provide educational programmes for investment professionals.Question 10Question 10 focuses on the EU Taxonomy Regulation and asks CFA Institute members in the EU about the primary challenges that they perceive regarding the implementation of this legislation.Survey respondents echoed similar implications to those that they raised regarding the SFDR.Exhibit 9 shows that a significant 37%of survey respondents believe the intricate disclosure rules introduced by the EU Taxonomy has resulted in complexity of information and confusion among investors and stakeholders.Meanwhile,a notable 35%highlight the lack of reliable and comparable data,which makes it challenging for asset managers and other financial market participants to effectively implement this regulation in their sustainability strategies.Exhibit 8.The Role of CFA Institute in Tackling SFDR Challenges48A9%8%2%0 0P%Provideseminars andinformationsessions forasset managerson SFDRtechnicalstandards(i.e.,principal adverseimpact indicators)SupportCFA societiesin the EU inadvocating forethicalsustainablefinance andagainstgreenwashingpracticesProvideprogrammes tobetter educateinvestmentprofessionalsProvideprogrammes tobetter educateinvestorsCFA Instituteshould notget involvedOtherDont knowHow would you like CFA Institute to approach SFDR challenges,if at all?Select all that apply.N=379CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|13Question 11Questions 11 and 12 look at EU rules on corporate reporting of sustainability information.Question 11 focuses on the introduction of the ESRS,which were developed by EFRAG and adopted by the European Commission in July 2023.The ESRS have been established for use by all companies subject to the requirements under the CSRD.Nearly a third of survey respondents are positive about the adoption of these standards.In particular,as shown in Exhibit 10,19%support the double materiality perspective in corporate reporting,because the majority of European investors demand reporting information both on impacts on people and environment and on how social and environmental issues create financial risks and opportunities for companies.Conversely,18%of survey respondents expressed concern about the potentially excessive ambition of ESRS relative to standards outside the EU.Stringent reporting requirements under ESRS might have a negative impact on EU companies compared with non-EU companies that are not subject to similar reporting obligations.Exhibit 9.Challenges in the Implementation of the EU Taxonomy Regulation375%6%6%6%1%0%5 %05%The over-engineeringthat theregulationintroduced iscausingconfusion forstakeholdersThe lack ofreliable andcomparabledata makes ithard for assetmanagers toimplement thisframework intotheir sustainabilitystrategiesThe presenceof contrastingdisclosure ruleswith thoserequired underthe SFDR andother EUlegislationDont knowOtherThe EUTaxonomyframework onlyfocuses onclimate andenvironmentalobjectivesThere are noproblemsIn your view,what is the biggest problem,if any,regarding the EU Taxonomy Regulation?N=378CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|14Question 12Question 12 asks for the opinion of CFA Institute members in the EU on the requirement of seeking limited assurance of the nonfinancial information required under the CSRD.The directive refers to limited assurance as those engagements that have a conclusion that is provided in a negative form of expression by stating that no matter has been identified by the practitioner to conclude that the subject matter is materially misstated.Reasonable assurance,instead,requires more detailed procedures,including consideration of internal controls of the reporting undertaking and substantive testing(European Parliament and Council of the European Union 2022).All companies falling under the scope of the CSRD are required to seek limited assurance of the compliance with the sustainability reporting standards.The European Commission will make an assessment in the near future to determine when it is feasible to move from limited assurance to reasonable assurance.After this assessment,the European Commission is planning to Exhibit 10.Views on the Adoption of ESRSOn 31 July 2023,the European Commission adopted the European Sustainability Reporting Standards(ESRS),which will be mandatory for some companies(i.e.,large listed companies and large entities with more than500 employees)from financial year 2024.Which best describes your view on the adoption of these standards?N=3641%5%5&%0%5 %0%The timeline gives enough time for SMEs to prepare for the new reportingrequirements under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting DirectiveThe concept of double materiality is not well articulated to ensure that materialityexpectations from users are aligned with materiality application by preparersOtherThe timeline for the application of the ESRS is too tight as many companies willnow be required to meet new reporting requirements in the short term.Companies will not be ready to report information based on the double materiality perspectiveThe adoption of the ESRS is positive because ESRS are very much aligned withthe standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board(ISSB)and the Global Reporting InitiativeThe adoption of the ESRS is too ambitious as ISSB standards have not yet beenendorsed by many non-EU regulators.Reporting requirements under ESRSmight negatively impact EU companies compared to non-EU companiesnot subject to this type of standardsRequiring a double materiality perspective in companies reporting is positivebecause most investors demand reporting both on impacts on people andenvironment and on how social and environmental issues create financialrisks and opportunities for the companyDont knowCFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|15develop standards for limited assurance by 1 October 2026 and for reasonable assurance by 1 October 2028.Although more than a third of survey participants preferred to not provide an opinion on the requirement of limited assurance under the CSRD(see Exhibit 11),a significant proportion of respondents(25%)believe that the EU approach is appropriate.They argue that limited assurance on sustainability reporting can be used in the short term,but they advocate for reasonable assurance to be mandated at a later stage.Question 13Questions 13 and 14 focus on the issue of greenwashing practices.Question 13 asks how concerned CFA Institute members in the EU are about the risk of greenwashing in the EU fund industry.An overwhelming majority of survey respondents are worried about greenwashing practices in the sector;in particular,43%expressed a high degree of concern regarding such risks(see Exhibit 12).Only 9%of respondents were not worried about greenwashing.Exhibit 11.Views on the Requirement of Seeking Limited Assurance on Nonfinancial Information9%7%8%16%0%5 %05%Limitedassurance isthe appropriatestandardLimitedassurance onsustainabilityreporting isonly appropriatein the short-termperiod.However,reasonableassurance shouldbe mandated at alater stageReasonableassurance is theappropriatestandardLimitedassuranceshould not berequired beforenew standardsfor this type ofassurance andgraduated auditopinion forsustainabilityreporting aredevelopedNo assuranceis necessary onsustainabilityreportingOtherDont knowWhich best describes your view on the requirement of seeking limited assurance of the nonfinancialinformation required under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive(CSRD)?N=362CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|16Question 14Question 14 delves into potential policies that EU regulators could put in place in an attempt to reduce greenwashing practices in the region.Three predominant approaches emerge from the responses.The first emphasises the need for enhanced collaboration and engagement practices between EU policymakers and regulators.This collaboration should aim to align jurisdictions toward a common definition of sustainability and improve the interoperability of sustainability-related disclosures.The second approach is for regulators to require full transparency on ESG ratings and methodologies.The third proposed policy would be to provide clarification on key sustainability concepts concerning the current EU legislative framework.Furthermore,as shown in Exhibit 13,a notable 30%of survey respondents said that EU regulators also should require external and independent assurance for sustainability information provided by companies.Exhibit 12.Sentiments about the Risk of Greenwashing in the EU Fund IndustryHow concerned are you,if at all,about the riskof greenwashing in the EU fund industry?Very concerned43%Somewhat concerned47%Dont know1%Not concerned at all9%N=362CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|17Question 15Question 15 refers to the provision of ESG ratings in the EU and seeks CFA Institute members view on the usefulness of such ratings in illustrating and evaluating the sustainability of companies.As Exhibit 14 shows,more than a third of survey respondents(36%)expressed concern about the divergent outcomes provided by too many ESG ratings and underlined that such a situation leads to confusion for investors.An additional 19%conveyed a lack of trust in ESG rating providers methodologies and said that ESG ratings are not useful at all.Conversely,27%of members responding to the survey reported that these ratings are helpful because they provide a better understanding of a companys characteristics.They warned,however,that ESG ratings are not sufficiently reliable for investors to make a sound and well-informed investment decision.Exhibit 13.Views on Possible EU Policies Tackling Greenwashing PracticesWhat policies,if any,should regulators put in place in an attempt to reduce greenwashing practices?Select all that apply.N=36244CC0%8%9%4%0%5 %05EP%Furthercollaboratewith otherregulators fromaround the worldon a commondefinition ofsustainability,and improve theinteroperabilityof sustainability-related disclosuresRequire fulltransparencyon ESG ratingsandmethodologiesClarify keyconcepts onsustainability inthe current EUlegislativeframeworkRequireexternal andindependentassurance onsustainabilityinformationOther policiesNo regulatorypolicies arenecessaryDont knowCFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|18Question 16The last question of our ESG survey allows CFA Institute members in the EU to elaborate on their general assessment regarding the implementation of legislation on sustainable finance in the EU.A significant proportion of survey respondents believe the implementation of the EU rules on sustainable finance represents a step in the right direction.Through requiring disclosure of sustainability policies and their effects on climate and society,the EU legislation has raised awareness about the importance of incorporating ESG factors into investment decisions.Many respondents,however,highlighted confusion stemming from the growing disclosure of sustainability information,which affects investors,who are increasingly concerned about greenwashing practices.The rapid implementation timeline of the applicable EU legislation has forced companies and asset managers to address the challenge of providing required disclosures amid a lack of reliable and verifiable data.Small entities have been significantly impacted by increasing costs of compliance.Exhibit 14.Views on the Usefulness of ESG Ratings in the Evaluation of the Sustainability Impact of Companies2%4%4%86%0%5 %05%OtherThese ESG ratings are very useful for investors to makesound investment decisions based on the level ofsustainability of a companyDont knowESG ratings are not very helpful if they do not follow adouble materiality approach,taking into considerationcompanies exposure on ESG risks and their impact onpeople and the environmentNot useful at allI dont trust their methodologiesThese ratings are helpful to gain a rough understandingof the characteristics of a company but not sufficient tomake a sound investment decisionThere are too many ESG ratings with divergent outcomesand they are therefore confusing for investorsWhich best describes your view on the usefulness of EU ESG ratings in illustrating and evaluatingthe sustainability of companies?N=361CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|19Precise guidance and clarification of key terminology are necessary to make disclosures more meaningful to investors.One area that needs greater clarification is the way sustainable investments made by funds and companies fall within the definition of sustainable investments under the SFDR.The lack of clear definitions has resulted in asset managers and companies interpreting existing rules and standards in various ways,leading to a diverse implementation of the EU legislation.Poor consistency in the implementation of legislation makes it hard for investors to compare investments and make informed decisions.Highlight 1.EU Legislative Framework on Sustainable FinanceThe EU legislative framework on sustainable finance covers many pieces of regulation,including the SFDR,the EU Taxonomy Regulation,and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive.Legislators are currently finalising negotiations for the new Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive(CSDDD)and the proposed regulation on the transparency and integrity of ESG rating activities.Sustainable Finance Disclosure RegulationThe SFDR,which has been in effect since 2021,sets out sustainability-related disclosure requirements for financial market participants,including investment firms,other financial service providers,and financial advisers.In particular,the regulation requires them to publicly disclose on their websites information on their policies about the integration of sustainability risks in their investment decision-making process or in their investment advice.Additionally,financial market participants and advisers must publish a statement disclosing whether they consider the principal adverse impact of their investment decisions or investment advice on sustainability factors.As of 20 February 2023,amendments to the SFDR require financial market participants to also disclose the degree of exposure of their portfolios to gas and nuclear-related activities that are regulated under the EU Taxonomy.In September 2023,the European Commission started a revision process for the SFDR by launching a public consultation on the implementation of the regulation.Taxonomy RegulationThe Taxonomy Regulation entered into force in July 2020 and has been applicable since January 2022(only in relation to the environmental objectives of climate change adaption and mitigation).The regulation introducesCFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|202 See https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:L_202302486.a classification system defining criteria for economic activities that are aligned with EU environmental goals and the objective of achieving net zero by 2050.It also introduces disclosure rules for companies that should report how and to what extent their activities are associated with taxonomy-aligned activities.Following the adoption of the Environmental Delegated Act in 2023,2 organisations that wish to comply with the EU Taxonomy are also required to report on their economic activities contribution to the objectives of(1)sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources,(2)transition to a circular economy,(3)pollution prevention and control,and(4)protection and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems.This obligation has applied since 1 January 2024.Corporate Sustainability Reporting DirectiveThe CSRD,which entered into force on 5 January 2023,represents the EU legislative framework on nonfinancial reporting for all large companies and listed companies(except for listed micro-enterprises).These organisations are required to report on matters related to environmental protection,social responsibility and treatment of employees,human rights,anticorruption and bribery,and diversity on boards.The directive also highlights the concept of double materiality,which requires companies to report not only on how sustainability issues affect the firm but also on how company activities impact society and the environment.EFRAG has developed the European Sustainability Reporting Standards(ESRS),which were adopted by the European Commission in 2023.These common standards are designed to help companies report the required information under the CSRD and facilitate the communication of sustainability information to investors and other users.ESG Rating RegulationIn February 2024,EU legislators reached an agreement for a new regulation on ESG rating activities.The regulation sets out obligations for financial market participants and financial advisers,who are required to disclose ESG ratings as part of their marketing communications and to also report information about the methodologies used in these ratings on their website.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|21Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)providing ESG ratings have the opportunity to opt in to a lighter temporary regime lasting three years.Such organisations would benefit from supervisory fees proportionate to the extent of ESMA supervision.The regulation also provides for a separation of ESG rating providers business and activities and introduces measures to avoid potential conflicts of interest.Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence DirectiveEU legislators are also currently finalising negotiations for the CSDDD.The legislation requires companies to prevent,end,or mitigate their negative effects on human rights and the environment,including slavery,child labour,labour exploitation,biodiversity loss,pollution,and destruction of natural heritage.Companies will need to integrate due diligence practices into their policies and risk management systems and implement a transition plan that makes their business model compatible with the Paris Agreement goals.The directive would apply to EU and non-EU firms and parent companies with more than 1,000 employees and with a turnover of more than 450 million.It would also apply to franchises with a turnover of more than 80 million if at least 22.5 million was generated by royalties.Highlight 2.The Role of EFRAG and the Platform on Sustainable FinanceIt is also important to acknowledge EFRAGs work on ESRS and the advising function of the Platform on Sustainable Finance.As mentioned in Highlight 1,EFRAG played an important role in the implementation of the CSRD by developing the ESRS.In 2020,the European Commission tasked EFRAG with providing technical advice for the elaboration of EU nonfinancial reporting standards,in the context of the revision of the Non-Financial Reporting Directive(renamed as CSRD).EFRAG consulted a multistakeholder group project task force for the preparatory work of these standards.The group consisted of a wide range of stakeholders,including representatives from the public sector,the private sector,SMEs,and civil society from across the EU.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|22In 2023,EFRAG released its first set of ESRS,which the European Commission adopted,and three implementation guidance documents aiming to support the implementation of the CSRD and the standards.Although CFA Institute lauds EFRAGs commitment and its great work in the development of the ESRS,we have concerns about EFRAGs capacity to maintain these standards and effectively address stakeholder questions and concerns.We hope that EFRAG continues to receive the necessary resources to keep carrying out its work and remain independent from the political process,audit firms,and preparers.The Platform on Sustainable Finance is an advisory body,set up by the European Commission,with the aim to provide recommendations on the implementation and usability of the EU Taxonomy,as well as the development of proposed technical screening criteria.Moreover,the platform advises the European Commission on matters concerning the broader sustainable finance framework.The group consists of representatives from the financial,nonfinancial,and business sectors;public and international institutions;nongovernmental organisations;academia;think-tanks;civil society;and experts in their personal capacity.In addition to the work on the EU Taxonomy technical screening criteria,the Platform on Sustainable Finance published various reports,including one on the development of the environmental transition taxonomy and one on the social taxonomy.Furthermore,it provided responses to European Commission consultation documents,including a call for feedback on the draft ESRS delegated acts.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|23BibliographyCFA Institute.2021.“Survey of CFA Institute Members on Latest ESG Matters”(November).www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/survey/cfa-esg-survey-web.pdf.Council of the European Union.2024.“Environmental,Social and Governance(ESG)Ratings:Council and Parliament Reach Agreement.”Press release(14 February).www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/02/05/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-ratings-council-and-parliament-reach-agreement/.ESMA.2023.“ESMA Progress Report on Greenwashing”(31 May).www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2023-06/ESMA30-1668416927-2498_Progress_Report_ESMA_response_to_COM_RfI_on_greenwashing_risks.pdf.European Commission.2023a.“Platform Response to the Call for Feedback on Draft ESRS Delegated Act”(7 July).https:/finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/859589aa-83a0-4950-8310-0a384c9a9418_en?filename=230707-sustainable-finance-platform-response-esrs-delegated-act_en_0.pdf.European Commission.2023b.“The Commission Adopts the European Sustainability Reporting Standards.”Press release(31 July).https:/finance.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-adopts-european-sustainability-reporting-standards-2023-07-31_en.European Commission.2023c.“Targeted Consultation Document:Implementation of the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation(SFDR)”(14 September).https:/finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/99bc25fe-4dd8-4b57-ab37-212b5ab05c41_en?filename=2023-sfdr-implementation-targeted-consultation-document_en.pdf.European Commission.2024.“Platform on Sustainable Finance.”https:/finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/overview-sustainable-finance/platform-sustainable-finance_en.European Parliament.2024.“First Green Light to New Bill on Firms Impact on Human Rights and Environment”(19 March).Press release.www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20240318IPR19415/first-green-light-to-new-bill-on-firms-impact-on-human-rights-and-environment.European Parliament and Council of the European Union.2019.“Regulation(EU)2019/2088 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on Sustainability-Related Disclosures in the Financial Services Sector”(27 November).https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:02019R2088-20240109.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|24European Parliament and Council of the European Union.2020.“Regulation(EU)2020/852 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 June 2020 on the Establishment of a Framework to Facilitate Sustainable Investment,and Amending Regulation(EU)2019/2088”(18 June).https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32020R0852.European Parliament and Council of the European Union.2022.“Directive (EU)2022/2464 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December 2022 Amending Regulation(EU)No 537/2014,Directive 2004/109/EC,Directive 2006/43/EC and Directive 2013/34/EU,as Regards Corporate Sustainability Reporting”(14 December).https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32022L2464.CFA Institute Survey Report on the ESG Regulatory Framework in the EUCFA Institute|25AuthorsRoberto SilvestriManager,EU Policy and Outreach,EMEABrusselsJosina KamerlingHead,Regulatory Outreach,EMEABrusselsContributorsDeborah Kidd,CFADirector,Global Industry StandardsMatthew Winters,CFASenior Director,Financial Reporting Policy AdvocacyChris FidlerHead,Global Industry StandardsABOUT THE RESEARCH AND POLICY CENTERCFA Institute Research and Policy Center brings together CFA Institute expertise along with a diverse,cross-disciplinary community of subject matter experts working collaboratively to address complex problems.It is informed by the perspective of practitioners and the convening power,impartiality,and credibility of CFA Institute,whose mission is to lead the investment profession globally by promoting the highest standards of ethics,education,and professional excellence for the ultimate benefit of society.For more information,visit https:/rpc.cfainstitute.org/en/.PROFESSIONAL LEARNING QUALIFIED ACTIVITYThis publication qualifies for 0.75 PL credits under the guidelines of the CFA Institute Professional Learning Program.Unless expressly stated otherwise,the opinions,recommendations,findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the various contributors to the report and do not necessarily represent the views of CFA Institute.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopy,recording,or any information storage and retrieval system,without permission of the copyright holder.Requests for permission to make copies of any part of the work should be mailed to:Copyright Permissions,CFA Institute,915 East High Street,Charlottesville,Virginia 22902.CFA and Chartered Financial Analyst are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.To view a list of CFA Institute trademarks and the Guide for the Use of CFA Institute Marks,please visit our website at www.cfainstitute.org.CFA Institute does not provide investment,financial,tax,legal,or other advice.This report was prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide,and should not be relied on for,investment,financial,tax,legal,or other advice.CFA Institute is not responsible for the content of websites and information resources that may be referenced in the report.Reference to these sites or resources does not constitute an endorsement by CFA Institute of the information contained therein.The inclusion of company examples does not in any way constitute an endorsement of these organizations by CFA Institute.Although we have endeavored to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable and up-to-date sources,the changing nature of statistics,laws,rules,and regulations may result in delays,omissions,or inaccuracies in information contained in this report.First page photo credit:Getty Images/iStockphoto/ftgipsy
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Preserving LegaciesClimate Risk and Resilience in PetraDraft-6 February 2024PETRA NATIONAL TRUSTPreserving LegaciesClimate Risk and Resilience in PetraPETRA NATIONAL TRUSTPublication DetailsPublished by the Petra National Trust,Amman,The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan978-2-487082-02-1 Preserving Legacies:Climate Risk and Resilience in Petra(Digital)978-2-487082-03-8 Preserving Legacies:Climate Risk and Resilience in Petra(Print)This work is distributed under the Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 4.0 licence.This licence enables re-users to distribute,remix,adapt,and build upon the material in any medium or format for non-commercial purposes only,and only so long as attribution is given to the creator.If you remix,adapt,or build upon the material,you must licence the modified material under identical terms.Suggested CitationAbdalhaleem,H.,Falahat,T.,Al Hasanat,M.,Bouaziz,K.,Sabour,S.,Megarry,W.and V.Herrmann(2024)Preserving Legacies:Climate Risk and Resilience in Petra.Amman:Petra National TrustDesigned by Asmahan Khames,Petra National Trust IIIAuthorsHaifa AbdalhaleemTaher Falahat Majed Al Hasanat Khansa Bouaziz Salma Sabour William Megarry Victoria Herrmann Affiliations 1-Petra National Trust(PNT)2-Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority(PDTRA)3-Preserving Legacies Project 4-The International Council on Monuments and Sites(ICOMOS)5-Queens University Belfast 6-University of SouthamptonPetra National Trust(PNT),Is a non-governmental,non-profit organization established in 1989 as the first leading pioneer in cultural heritage conservation and preservation.When first established,PNT focused on the UNESCO World Heritage site of Petra.Three decades later,PNT has become a regional center of excellence in cultural heritage protection and grew to offer heritage protection solutions and services across the Middle East and North Africa(MENA).Petra Development Tourism Regional Authority(PDTRA),established in 2009,is an autonomous financial and administrative body with a comprehensive vision to foster economic,social,cultural,and touristic growth in the region.It plays a pivotal role in the preservation and promotion of cultural heritage within the Petra region.As an independent financial and administrative authority,PDTRAs mission goes beyond mere economic and social development.It aims to nurture the rich tapestry of Petras cultural heritage while bolstering its status as a renowned tourist destination.Governed by a distinguished Board of Commissioners,PDTRAs strategic objectives prioritise the preservation,discovery,and enhancement of urban heritage.It works in tandem with national and international entities to safeguard archaeological sites and foster a deeper appreciation for Petras historical significance.Through its steadfast commitment to cultural stewardship and sustainable development,PDTRA embodies a vision of holistic progress that reveres and revitalises the cultural legacy of the Petra region.,IIIPreserving Legacies,established in 2022,is an initiative in partnership with the National Geographic Society,the International Council on Monuments and Sites(ICOMOS),and the Climate Heritage Network(CHN).Using innovative science,capacity building,and networking,Preserving Legacies enables communities worldwide to design and implement low-carbon solutions that safeguard cultural heritage from climate change.Working with two Primary Sites in 2023,Petra,Jordan,and the Ifugao Rice Terraces,Philippines,and eight Observer Sites in 2023,Preserving Legacies integrates scientific,local,and Indigenous knowledges to find sustainable and culturally appropriate solutions to the long-term,low-carbon preservation of cultural heritage sites on every continent.With a commitment to growing a global community of practice and sharing hopeful stories of climate adaptation and heritage sites,Preserving Legacies aims to empower every community with the scientific knowledge and technical training to achieve appropriate place and people-based climate adaptation actions.vPETRA NATIONAL TRUSTPreserving LegaciesClimate Risk and Resilience in PetraTable of ContentsPublication Details.ISuggested Citation.IAuthors.IIAffiliations.IIList of Figures and Tables.VIIIForewords Foreword by Her Royal Highness Princess Dana Firas,President of the Petra National Trust.XIII Foreword by Dr Faris Al-Breizat,Chairman of the Board of the Petra Development and Touris Regional Authority.XIV Foreword by Dr Victoria Herrmann,Director of Preserving Legacies.XV Acknowledgements.XVIIIAuthor Biographies.XXExecutive Summary English.XXIII Arabic.XXVIntroduction and Report Outline.XXVIIISection 1:Methodological Background and OverviewCultural Heritage and Climate Change.02 Step 1:Values Mapping.04 Step 2:Climate Futures and Hazard Assessment.04 Step 3:Impact and Risk Assessment.05 Step 4:Other Factors,Resilience,and Vulnerability.05The Petra Workshop Methodology.06Section 2:Site Introduction,History,Values and AttributesAn Introduction to Petra.11Petra as a World Heritage site.12The Wider Landscape of Petra.13Community Values and Key Values for the Risk Assessment.15 Economic Values Associated with Tourism at The World.16 Economic Values Associated with Agriculture in the Wider Petra Landscape.17 Archaeological and Historical Values Associated with the World Heritage Site.17 Natural Values and the Wider Landscape in and Around the World Heritage Site.18Section 3:The Climate Context Past,Present,and FutureIntroduction.20Climate Dynamics and Future Projections in Jordan:An in-Depth Scientific Analysis Introduction to Jordans Climate.22 Climate Change Hazards in Jordan.23 Future Climate Scenarios in Jordan.23 Future Climate Changes:An Overview.24 -Future Air Temperature Projections.25 -Future Precipitation Trends.26 -Future Evapotranspiration Projections.27 -Future Drought Patterns.28 -Heatwaves:Historical Trends and Future Projections.30 -Future Projected Wind Speed:Temporal and Spatial Consistency.32A historical Analysis of Climate Change in Petra(1979-2024)Trends and Anomalies in Temperature and Precipitation.33 -Seasonal Temperature Patterns.35 -Seasonal Precipitation Patterns.35 Climate Hazards in Petra.37Unveiling dynamics and Navigating Climate Change:Narratives From Local Communities Focus Groups.38Key Hazards and Likely Impacts From the Workshop.40Section 4:Sensitivity,Exposure,Social and Economic Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity.44Sensitivity and Exposure.44Social and Economic Vulnerabilities.45Adaptive Capacity.47 Contemporary Adaptations.48 Learning from the Past.49Assessing Climate Risk at Petra-A Community Response.51Section 5:Understanding Climate Risk at Petra-Key Areas for Concern and Opportunities.53Climate Risk to Key Values.54 Heritage Values.54 Economic Values-Tourism.55 Economic Values-Agriculture.56 Natural Values.57Conclusion Including Key Messages Key Findings.60 Key Observations.60Glossary.63Bibliography.66Appendices Appendix 1-List of Workshop Participants.70 Appendix 2-Focus Groups Participants.71 Appendix 3-Petra Statement of Outstanding Universal Value.73 Appendix 4-Workshop Timetable.76 Appendix 5-Question List:Focus Groups Jordan Workshop.77VIII List of Figures and TablesFigure 1:Some workshop attendees with global site custodians from the Preserving Legacies Project (Photo:Michael O.Snyder 2023)Figure 2:Key components of climate risk and vulnerability assessment of sitesFigure 3:Taher Falahat of PDTRA inspecting recently consolidated Nabatean terraces above the Petra archaeological site(Photo:Michael Snyder 2023)Figure 4:Workshop methodology showing preparation work including research and focus groups,the workshop,and post-survey actions including a survey of participants.Figure 5:Focus groups sessions(Photo:Khansa Bouaziz)Figure 6:Haifa Abdalhaleem presenting a summary results of the focus groups(Photo:Salma Sabour)Figure 7:Icons used during the workshop for key terms and concepts(from F)Figure 8:Majed Al Hassanet discussing the results of the focus groups with the local participants(Photo:Khansa Bouaziz)Figure 9:The Petra water catchment(Source:Al-Weshah et al,1999,170-177)Figure 10:Tourists in the Al-Siq,Petra(Photo:Michael O.Snyder 2023)Figure 11:Examples of monuments at the archaeological site(Photos:Khansa Bouaziz,2023)Figure 12:The stunning geological formations of the Petra landscape(Photo:Will Megarry 2023)Figure 13:Map of the twelve Governorates of the Hashemite Kingdom of JordanFigure 14:Project average maximum temperature for three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 15:Projected average minimum air temperature for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015).Figure 16:Projected Annual Precipitation for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 17:Projected Differences in Annual Precipitation for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 18:Projected Annual Etp for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 19:Projected Differences in Annual Etp for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 20:Historical SPI estimated by the number of drought events(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015),IXFigure 21:Projected Differences in drought probability,for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 22:Historical heat waves spatial distribution in Jordan(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 23:Historical heat waves events distribution by month in Jordan(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 24:Spatial distribution of the potential future heatwaves projection using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 25:Projected average wind speed,for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 26:Projected Differences in Average Wind Speed,for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Figure 27:Mean yearly temperature,trend and anomaly 1979-2023 in Petra,Jordan.The dashed blue line represents the linear trend in climate change.A positive incline from left to right indicates a warming trend in Petra due to climate change,while a horizontal line suggests no discernible trend,and a downward slope implies cooling conditions over time.In the lower section of the graph,warming stripes are depicted.Each coloured stripe corresponds to the average temperature for a year,with blue indicating colder years and red representing warmer ones(MeteoBlue,2024)Figure 28:The upper graph presents the temperature anomaly for each month spanning from 1979 to the present.This anomaly quantifies the deviation from the 30-year climate mean of 1980-2010,showcasing warmer months in red and colder ones in blue.The lower graph delves into precipitation anomalies for every month since 1979.This anomaly measures variations from the 30-year climate mean of 1980-2010,with green indicating wetter months and brown representing drier conditions than the norm(MeteoBlue,2024)Figure 29:Monthly anomalies for temperature and precipitation for the months of June,August and September between 1979-2024(MeteoBlue,2024)Figure 30:Haifa Abdalhaleem from PNT presenting future climate scenarios to workshop attendees (Photo:Michael O.Snyder 2023)Figure 31:Images showing the impacts of recent flooding on the Petra archaeological site(Photos:Taher Falahat 2022)Figure 32:The impact of sandblasting and wind erosion on the Royal Tombs(left)and Al Khazneh(right).Both sites are sensitive to erosion but have different sensitivities(Photos:Taher Falahat,2022)Figure 33:The impact of sandblasting and wind erosion on stone carvings in Petra showing the sensitivity of some structures on the site(Photos:Khansa Bouaziz,2023)XFigure 34:Tourisms outside the Al Khazneh,Petra(Photo:Petra-Jordan Facebook)Figure 35:Retractable barrier at the entrance to the Siq,open(left)and closed(right)Figure 36:Photos showing traditional Nabatean water management strategies.Clockwise from top right:Renovated terrace above the WH site,water cistern at Little Petra,water channel and renovated dam in the Siq,Petra(Photos:Taher Falahat 2023 and Will Megarry 2023).Figure 37:Pictures of some dams before and after reconstruction(Source:Abdelal and al./,Hydrological assessment and management implications for the ancient Nabataean flood control system in Petra,Figure 38:Haifa Abdalhaleem from PNT hosting a focus group in advance of the workshop Jordan,2021)Figure 39:A graphical summary of the climate risk to heritage values at Petra including assessments of impacts to date,sensitivity,exposure and social and economic vulnerabilities,and the adaptive capacity of the WH site and its community.While each climate hazard is assessed separately,an aggregate risk is also provided.For heritage values,this risk is deemed to be low.Figure 40:A graphical summary of the climate risk to economic values associated with tourism at Petra including assessments of impacts to date,sensitivity,exposure and social and economic vulnerabilities,and the adaptive capacity of the WH site and its community.While each climate hazard is assessed separately,an aggregate risk is also provided.For economic values associated with tourism,this risk is deemed to be moderate.Figure 41:A graphical summary of the climate risk to economic values associated with agriculture at Petra including assessments of impacts to date,sensitivity,exposure and social and economic vulnerabilities,and the adaptive capacity of the WH site and its community.While each climate hazard is assessed separately,an aggregate risk is also provided.For economic values associated with agriculture,this risk is deemed to be moderate.Figure 42:A graphical summary of the climate risk to natural values at Petra including assessments of impacts to date,sensitivity,exposure and social and economic vulnerabilities,and the adaptive capacity of the WH site and its community.While each climate hazard is assessed separately,an aggregate risk is also provided.For natural values,this risk is deemed to be moderate.Table 1:Focus groups held in advance of the workshopTable 2:Relative rankings for different assessment componentsTable 3:Component parts of the Petra climate risk assessmentTable 4:Key values and attributes extracted from the UNESCO WH Statement of OUVTable 5:Key values and attributes as identified by focus group and workshop participantsXITable 6:Summary of the future climate forecasts regarding short,medium,and long terms:Precipitation (Pcp),Maximum Temperature(Tmax),Minimum Temperature(Tmin),Relative Humidity(RH),Wind Speed(WS),Potential Evapotranspiration(ETp),and Heatwave(HW)(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Table 7:Monthly temperature deviations from the 30-year climate mean of 1980-2010 for 1979 and 2023 in Petra(MeteoBlue,2024)Table 8:Monthly precipitation anomalies(in millimetres)from the 30-year climate mean of 1980-2010 observed in Petra in 1979 and 2023.The values represent the amount of rainfall or snowfall during each respective month(MeteoBlue,2024)Table 9:Stakeholder observations on potential impacts from the workshopTable 10:Impact to date and potential future impacts to key valuesTable 11:Risk of key values by 2060 under scenario RCP 4.5 including exposure,resilience and adaptive capacityForewordsXIII Foreword by Her Royal Highness Princess Dana Firas,President of the Petra National TrustWe,at the Petra National Trust,are proud to join the Preserving Legacies Project to better understand the impacts of climate change on the World Heritage Site of Petra,and its communities,and to develop place-specific and people-centred climate change adaptation plans.Today,we are working against time.The climate emergency is placing stress on places and communities globally,and our response must be ready,rapid and relevant.So far climate action has fallen short,particularly in relation to the interconnections with culture and heritage.Through the course of the project,the Petra communities placed specific emphasis on the economic value of heritage,primarily through agriculture and tourism,in addition to the historic,archaeological and natural values.For the people of Petra the integrity of monuments,buildings,landscape,plants and animals of Petra was important as were activities in and around the site that contributed to their wellbeing and all are experiencing damage as a result of climate change.This damage is pervasive and persistent,requiring a dynamic and continuous response requiring significant investments of time,resources and effort.As a result,our work through Preserving Legacies focused on finding an innovative and effective approach that emphasised inclusion,valorized local voices and created a space to integrate science,knowledge,learning and community values.By bringing together this diversity of knowledge systems,the project sought to design more nimble,implementable,sustainable and culturally appropriate solutions and adaptation methodologies.We are pleased to be able to share our findings in this report and to contribute to creating a connected global community of practice,sharing experiences and learning from one another as we address the challenges of climate change impacts on our cultural heritage.Ultimately,we all face a global threat and we share a common goal:to safeguard our heritage for future generations.I would like to thank our partners,the Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority(PDTRA),the Petra communities,the International Council on Monuments and Sites(ICOMOS),the Climate Heritage Network and National Geographic for their support and contributions.Previous Page Photo By:Khansa Bouaziz,2023Foreword byDr Faris Al-Breizat,Chairman of the Board of the Petra Development and Tourism Regional AuthorityThe Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority(PDTRA)is considered one of the most significant national institutions in Jordan.We collaborate with various national and international entities to preserve Petra Archeological Park the capital of the Arab Nabataeans and one of the key symbols of the Jordanian national cultural identity and a world heritage site.Petra holds a special place in the hearts of the Jordanian people and their Hashemite leadership reflecting the deep historical and cultural roots of Jordanians.At PDTRA,we,along with our partners nationally and globally,understand the importance of preserving cultural and natural heritage as a right for future generations and humanity as a whole.Therefore,we have consistently upheld a strategic goal that we will not deviate from:Petra Forever.This commitment has led us to respond to the global initiative extended by National Geographic in 2021 for projects focusing on safeguarding threatened World Heritage sites affected by climate change and/or conflicts.In collaboration with the International Council on Monuments and Sites(ICOMOS),Petra was chosen as one of the main sites for the inaugural year of the project Preserving Legacies.I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude to Petra National Trust(PNT)for their efforts in this field.They are an active partner with PDTRA in heritage preservation and raising awareness of its importance.Additionally,we acknowledge the collaboration with the Jordanian Department of Antiquities,sharing the responsibility of preserving our historical and cultural heritage.Recently,PDTRA has implemented a series of remedial and preventive measures to enhance the concept of preserving both the tangible and intangible heritage elements in the Petra region.We have also initiated efforts to manage the relationship between the local community and the archaeological site,which is surrounded by six communities with over 40,000 residents heavily dependent on tourism.Recognizing the evident impacts of climate change,we have given special attention to this issue.Collaborating with partners,we have established an early warning system for flash floods resulting from sudden and rapid rainfall.We have maintained and rehabilitated the pathways of flowing water through the archaeological site,undertaken maintenance programs,and restored the Nabataean water system and terraces surrounding the site.Additionally,we have organized visitor traffic to ensure their safety and facilitate our response to any exceptional conditions the region may face.XIVForeword by Dr Victoria Herrmann,Director of Preserving LegaciesPreserving Legacies:A Future of Our Past is a global initiative that aims to meet that need by empowering every community with the scientific knowledge and technical training to achieve appropriate place and people-based climate adaptation plans.Funded by Manulife and in partnership with the National Geographic Society,the International Council for Monuments and Sites,and the Climate Heritage Network,Preserving Legacies equips communities with the capability to understand and visualise climate change impacts on a local scale,map the vulnerability of their sites and the community values they hold to those impacts,and act to minimise the adverse consequences of climate change and maximise the opportunities it presents.Preserving Legacies is built on a training program that enables local leaders to understand climate science and empowers them to turn that knowledge into site-saving action.In January 2023,the project kicked off its inaugural 12-month education program for 30 site custodians from 10 cultural and natural heritage sites around the world,seen in the below map.While this diverse first cohort spans continents,cultures,and climate impacts,they all share a deep commitment to learn,connect,and build something new together.Through a combination of recorded lectures,live online delivery,readings,and in-person workshops,the site custodians are learning about community values,climate science,site vulnerability,adaptation approaches,and storytelling for impact sequentially in a five-unit course.In this first year of Preserving Legacies,two primary sites,Petra,Jordan and The Ifugao Rice Terraces,Philippines,will go through a more robust program to link climate science and site conservation by enabling access to locally downscaled climate change models and organise a community-led workshop of the sites climate vulnerability as well as impacts on local communities.Alongside these two primary sites,eight observer sites have been chosen to fully engage in climate heritage training and a peer-to-peer learning experience.Site custodians from these sites will shadow the full process at Petra and the Rice Terraces,including attending their workshops,to better prepare for their own assessments in 2024.Parallel to the Jordanian vulnerability workshop that produced this assessment report,site custodians from the nine other Preserving Legacies sites flew to Jordan and took part in a parallel observer networking experience,where they observed the workshop with simultaneous translation and had their own programming.The aim of this experience was for each site custodian to have,through experiential learning,acquired the knowledge needed to run their own workshops at their home site in 2024.XVXVIWe hope that our work in Jordan is just the start to a multi-year program.We want to scale Preserving Legacys reach to every community across the world that is facing climate change impacts and transform conservation as a field.This year,we will learn,connect,and build something new together.And in years to come,we will work to democratise Preserving Legacies capacity building model to scale our impact to thousands of sites.Acknowledgements XVIIIAcknowledgements We are delighted to present Preserving Legacies:Climate Resilience in Petra,a comprehensive publication that reflects the culmination of collaborative efforts and dedication from various stakeholders.This project,aimed at assessing and enhancing climate resilience in the iconic Petra World Heritage Site,would not have been possible without the invaluable contributions and support from the following individuals,project partners,and institutions.We extend our heartfelt gratitude to the Department of Antiquities,the Ministry of Environment(MoEnv),and the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP)for their unwavering support and partnership.Their commitment to environmental conservation and sustainable development has played a pivotal role in the success of our initiatives.Special thanks go to the local community for their active participation in our workshops.Their insights,traditional knowledge,and commitment to the preservation of Petra have significantly enriched our understanding and shaped the outcomes of this project.We acknowledge the workshop participants by name(details in the annex)for their valuable contributions.The expertise and dedication of our report authors have been instrumental in presenting a thorough analysis and recommendations.We express our gratitude to Haifaa Abedalhaleem,Taher Falhat,Majed Al Hasanat,Willian Megarry,Khansa Bouaziz,and Victoria Herman.In addition,Asmahan Khames for designing this publication.Additional Contributors:A list of other staff members who have played crucial roles in this endeavour is provided in the annex.This publication represents a holistic approach to heritage preservation,addressing not only the challenges posed by climate change but also emphasising the importance of community engagement,interdisciplinary collaboration,and sustainable practices.The findings and recommendations outlined herein are intended to contribute to the ongoing dialogue on climate resilience in heritage sites and inform future conservation efforts.The Legacies project would not have been possible without support from the National Geographic Society and Manulife and we would like to thank both for their ongoing commitment to preserving the worlds heritage from climate change.Previous Page Photo By:Khansa Bouaziz,2023Photos of Dr.Etadal Al-Hassant during the workshop at Wadi Musa(Photos:Michael O.Snyder 2023)XIXWe express our deepest appreciation to all involved,from project partners to local communities,for their commitment to safeguarding Petras rich legacy in the face of environmental challenges.Finally,we would like to acknowledge and pay our deepest respects to Dr Etadal Al-Hassant whose valuable,wise and thoughtful contributions were so important in the workshop.XXAuthor BiographiesHaifa Abdalhaleem holds a masters degree in Heritage and Tourism Management and Development,accumulating over 18 years of expertise.In her current role as a Climate Heritage expert,she leads projects in Jordan,specialising in the meticulous assessment of climate impacts on heritage sites.With a significant tenure at IUCN,Haifaa played a pivotal role in the success of the IUCN-Tabea Programme,demonstrating her proficiency in natural World Heritage.Her skills encompass capacity building,providing technical advice,and contributing significantly to conservation efforts,including state of conservation monitoring,protection,and management.Haifaas accomplishments extend beyond World Heritage,showcasing a deep commitment to broader environmental and conservation issues.Taher Falahat is a passionate advocate for cultural heritage preservation,holds both a Bachelors and Masters degree in Cultural Heritage Management.Since 2018,he has been an integral part of the Heritage Resources Department at the Petra Archaeological Park.With a keen focus on conservation and restoration,Taher has successfully led several impactful projects within the park,contributing significantly to the protection and longevity of Petras rich historical legacy.Beyond the site,Taher has represented Petra and Jordan in several local and international programs and conferences,elevating awareness and fostering collaboration in the global heritage community.Majed Al Hasanat is a Ph.D.candidate in Biodiversity Conservation and is concurrently pursuing an MSc in MBA.With over 20 years of experience,he served as the Ex-commissioner for Petra Development and Tourism Region Authority(PDTRA),including roles as Petra Archaeological Park Commissioner and Infrastructure Commissioner.Prior to PDTRA,he worked extensively in biodiversity conservation,protected areas management,and natural resource management,showcasing practical expertise in managing protected areas,policy development,planning,sustainable use,and natural resource governance.Khansa Bouaziz is an architect by training.She began her career at the National Heritage Institute in Tunisia,working on four different heritage sites,three of which are world heritage sites.Her academic background is varied and multifaceted,having studied architecture,urban planning,archaeology,heritage conservation and site management.Most of her research is related to desert studies,interpretation technologies and climate resilience.XXISalma Sabour is a physical and environmental engineer and a climate heritage specialist that integrates technical expertise with a strong foundation in social science.Her interdisciplinary research at the University of Southampton focuses on climate change impacts on values and communities,sea-level rise,extreme events,climate risk assessments,resilience and adaptation.Collaborating with renowned researchers,she engaged in international research projects(ICOMOS,IPCC,UNESCO)and consulted for local governments and international organisations on waste and coastal management(World Bank),as well as water resources(UNDP)in Morocco and Nigeria.William Megarry is an archaeologist and heritage management specialist based in Ireland.He teaches at Queens University Belfast and is focal point for climate change at the International Council on Monuments and Sites(ICOMOS).He is also an expert member of the International Committee on Archaeological Heritage Management(ICAHM).His work has focused on climate change impacts to cultural heritage with a particular focus on assessing risk and vulnerability and on building climate awareness and literacy.He is a Fellow of the Society of Antiquaries of London and the Society of Antiquaries of Scotland.Victoria Herrmann is a storyteller and geographer working with communities around the world on climate change adaptation.As a National Geographic Explorer and Assistant Research Professor at Georgetown University,she has spent the past decade leading research initiatives and directing capacity building programs to support communities adapting on the front lines of the climate crisis in the U.S.,U.S.Territories,and Arctic.Executive SummaryExecutive SummaryClimate change represents the single greatest threat to heritage worldwide.Effectively responding to this threat is of utmost importance,yet there is a lack of methods to identify risks and capacities to respond to those risks within the heritage sector.Empowering every community to safeguard their cultural and natural heritage against climate change impacts the mission of the Preserving Legacies project.This project equips local leaders with the scientific knowledge and technical training to develop place and people-based climate change adaptation actions.This report presents the results from a climate risk assessment facilitated by the Petra National Trust(PNT)and the Petra Development Tourism Regional Authority(PDTRA)and organised as part of the Preserving Legacies project.It took place between March 2023 and June 2023 and included a series of three community focus groups and a three days workshop which brought together a diverse range of stakeholders to discuss key components of the assessment.This included identifying key values of the heritage site,highlighting social and economic vulnerabilities,gauging adaptive capacities,and assessing climate impacts and risk.The climate risk assessment followed a value-led approach,which began with an assessment of key property values and attributes.While these included heritage values associated with the World Heritage(WH)property,they also identified wider social and economic values important to the community.The following values were identified as being most important to the Petra community:economic values associated with agriculture and tourism,historical and archaeological values,and values associated with the natural landscape.The associated attributes for these values varied and included terraces,fields,the historical monuments and archaeological remains,and the natural flora and fauna of the area.Workshop participants then discussed changing weather and climate based on local experiences and observations,and a report on potential future climate hazards prepared in advance.This identified likely climate change under a range of different emissions scenarios over the next 100 years.It was decided to explore potential hazards until 2060 based on RCP 4.5.This assumes a middle of the road situation where social,economic,and technological trends will not change significantly,and is deemed by most scientists to be the most likely future climate.Previous Page Photo By:Khansa Bouaziz,2023XXIIIUnder this scenario,increased precipitation leading to flash flooding,drought,and increased storminess were identified as the top three future climatic hazards.Following this,the impact of local social and economic factors like development and funding pressures were also discussed,as was the capacity of different parts of the community to adapt to these hazards.Of particular note were the efforts taken by PDTRA to protect the WH property through the restoration of traditional terracing and the use of flood barriers at key water catchment points within the site.These significantly reduced the risk to some key values.The workshop decided that while the potential impact on key values ranged between moderate to extreme for increased precipitation leading to flash floods,low to moderate for drought events,and moderate for increased storminess,the overall risk when adaptive capacity was taken into account was moderate for each of the values with the exception of the archaeological and historical values where the risk was low.This was due to the adaptive efforts of PDTRA and the local community.It therefore summarised that the overall climate risk to Petra by 2060,based on a middle of the road emission scenario,was moderate.The climate risk assessment for Petra illustrates the benefit of a locally-led climate risk assessment methodology which respects plural values,diverse knowledge systems and scientific data,and acknowledges existing adaptation efforts.It demonstrates the benefit of engaging communities in decision making by sharing knowledge and building local capacities.In doing so,it also embeds meaningful and sustainable climate action within the communities who protect and care for our most precious places.XXIV .Preserving Legacies .PNT Preserving Lega-PDTRA .3202 3202 cies .:.001 0602 .RCP .PDTRA .XXV .PDTRA 0602 .XXVIIntroduction and Report OutlineIntroductionThis report outlines the results of a climate risk assessment of the Petra archaeological site and the wider landscape undertaken in Wadi Musa in June 2023.It was organised and facilitated by the Petra National Trust(PNT)and the Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority(PDTRA)as part of a wider global initiative called Preserving Legacies.Funded by Manulife and in partnership with the National Geographic Society,the Preserving Legacies project aims to empower every community with the scientific knowledge and technical training to achieve appropriate place and people-based climate adaptation plans.Through training and support,the project works with local heritage professionals around the world to provide the key skills and capacities necessary to respond to the climate crisis in a robust and sustainable way.While climate change is a global problem,its impacts are locally experienced.It is essential that heritage professionals learn to respond effectively and embed climate preparedness with site management structures.These actions need to incorporate communities in a people-centred and place-based way.A key part of the Preserving Legacies project is locally-led and community-focused climate risk assessment workshops,which are an essential prerequisite for climate adaptation.At Petra,this workshop was held over three days and heard from a broad range of community stakeholders.The results of this effort are presented in five parts outlining the results,outcomes,and key findings from the workshop.These are further informed by both focus groups,which preceded the workshops,and surveys,undertaken after the event to validate outcomes.Sections introduce:(1)an overview of the assessment methodology;(2)an exploration of the key values and attributes of Petra,its landscape and community as defined by local stakeholders;(3)a presentation of current and future climate projections including climatic hazards likely to impact the site in the future;(4)an exploration of the impact of these hazards on the site values,including an assessment of their exposure,sensitivity,and a discussion on local social and economic vulnerabilities;and(5)an exploration of both heritage and local adaptive capacities,and a final section exploring the key areas of risk and suggesting some possible areas of focus for adaptation initiatives.Previous Page Photo By:Khansa Bouaziz,2023XXVIIIThe Preserving Legacies project is committed to creating a global community of heritage professionals engaged in climate action who can support each other and share experiences from different types of heritage sites.To facilitate this,the project brought nine site custodians from Bangladesh,Cambodia,Columbia,The Federated States of Micronesia,Fiji,Ireland,The Philippines,and Togo and Benin to listen and share their experiences with the local community(Figure 1).This engagement provided a rich and rewarding cultural experience for everyone involved in the workshop.It also provided a valuable learning experience to the wider group who will be adapting and duplicating the experience at their own sites.As such,the Petra workshop is a seed that,now planted,will grow and yield fruit globally.Fundamentally,the results presented in this report represent the beginning of a journey rather than a destination.The impacts of climate change on heritage are already extensive and will only get worse in the future.Understanding how these impacts will be experienced at Petra will enable and catalyse effective climate adaptation strategies locally to help to preserve this outstanding site in the future.Figure 1:Some workshop attendees with global site custodians from the PreservingLegacies Project(Photo:Michael O.Snyder 2023)XXIX Section 1:MethodologicalBackground and OverviewSection 1:Methodological Background and OverviewCultural Heritage and Climate ChangeClimate change is the most significant threat to cultural and natural heritage globally.It has been estimated that one in three natural sites and one in three cultural sites are at risk from the impacts of climate change;however,it is very likely that these are under estimates(UNESCO 2021).While broad risk categories like rising sea-levels or increased storminess are well documented and reported,the specific risks to and vulnerability of individual sites,properties and places are not.This problem is particularly acute at sites from the Arab Region and is exacerbated by the lack of standardised tools,approaches,and capacities in the heritage sector to analyse risk of and respond to climate-related threats(World Economic Forum 2015).As noted by ICOMOS,There is a need to promote open access tools and approaches to vulnerability assessment,mitigation techniques,monitoring and damage assessment,conservation and adaptation efforts(ICOMOS 2019,pp 32).It is very important that these tools include the voices of peoples and communities who live in and around heritage sites.As noted in the recently published Global Research Action Agenda from the ICOMOS-ICOMOS-IPCC International Co-Sponsored Meeting on Culture,Heritage,and Climate Change,there is a need for tools and methodologies which both engage with established risk assessment mechanisms,and take into account diverse value systems and worldviews(Morel et al 2022,38).The scale of this challenge is enormous.Studies have repeatedly illustrated the growing risks posed by climate change to heritage sites globally,both cultural and natural.Many of these studies have focused on iconic World Heritage(WH)sites;however,the problem is even more acute at less well-known sites that often lack the resources to effectively respond(Megarry 2023).To meet the scale of this challenge,new tools and approaches need to be both openly available to heritage professionals and easy to use and apply.(Morel et al 2022,pp 38)02Previous Page Photo By:Michael O.Snyder,2023“In order to reduce risk to culture and heritage,a better understanding of their relation to climate im-pacts,exposure and vulnerability is needed There is also a need to address outcome biases in risk and vulnerability assessments which ignore community-led approaches and fail to take account of world views,values,practices and preferences of diverse actors,including Indigenous Peoples and local communities”031.Values Mapping2.Hazard Assessment3.Impact/Risk Assessment4.Other Factors,Resilience,and Vulnerability(Icons from F)Figure 2:Key components of climate risk and vulnerability assessment of sitesThey also need to be malleable and adaptable to a diverse range of heritage typologies,from tangible heritage like prehistoric archaeological sites and 20th century buildings to more intangible properties like cultural landscapes often centred on living heritage and traditions.As noted in the ICOMOS Futures of Our Past report,responding to climate change must become a baseline competency for heritage managers(ICOMOS 2019,7).Previous efforts to develop tools and methodologies have laid a strong foundation for this project.This has included initiatives by project partners including the Values-based Climate Change Risk Assessment:Piloting the Climate Vulnerability Index for Cultural Heritage in Africa(CVI Africa)project which explored the application of an existing tool at two African World Heritage sites(Megarry et al.2024;Day et al 2022;Heron et al 2022).These approaches tended to be based around a single facilitated workshop where stakeholders were brought together to share their experiences and opinions.The experiences of CVI Africa highlighted the need for a values-based methodology centred on community engagement and decision making.It also identified the importance of knowledge-sharing and capacity building to empower site managers and custodians to implement meaningful and sustainable actions at their sites(Megarry et al 2024).The methodological approach of Preserving Legacies reflects the learnings from CVI Africa.The methodology of Preserving Legacies is based around practical training and is not focused on a single tool or assessment technique.Rather,Preserving Legacies aims to equip site custodians with the key concepts,competencies,and practicums to understand climate risk and associated vulnerabilities at their unique sites(Figure 1).The training of Preserving Legacies and application of risk assessment used at Petra builds upon the vulnerability framework approach described in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC 2007),but requires the assessment to be locally-led and tailored to the community context,with a focus on identifying and respecting plural value systems and hearing from diverse voices.Step 1:Values MappingStep 2:Climate Futures and Hazard AssessmentValues refer to the meanings and values that individuals or groups of people bestow on heritage(Daz-Andreu,2017,pp 2).At most WH sites,the preservation of the Outstanding Universal Value of the property takes precedence over other values.This is reflected in many existing climate risk assessment approaches,for example the CVI which focused specifically on impacts to OUV(Megarry et al 2024).The Preserving Legacies project is not solely focused on WH properties,and its approach has a broader appreciation of values.This aligns with the spirit of the Burra Charter in attempting to identify and take into consideration all aspects of cultural and natural significance without unwarranted emphasis on any one value at the expense of others.The identification of key values involves wide community consultation.This can take many forms but is often done as part of a multi-stakeholder workshop bringing diverse actors together to make decisions in consensus.While very effective at some sites,community focus groups and workshops can reinforce existing power dynamics where certain actors dominate discussions and so care must be taken to ensure that all voices are heard equally.As intangible concepts,values do not exist in isolation to physical attributes.Attributes are physical features which attest to and demonstrate these values.This can include collections,buildings and structures,intangible traditions,and archaeological deposits.Identifying these attributes are key to understanding site values as these physical features are often what climate change impacts.Local communities,especially Indigenous peoples and those working with agriculture,are often acutely aware of changing weather patterns and climate change.This knowledge is a unique and valuable resource when assessing current climate risk and vulnerability.Understanding future climates is more of a challenge for knowledgable community members because,with climate change and our response to mitigate current and future greenhouse gas emissions,the future both looks different than the past and is not yet set.The actions taken over the coming decade will have a huge effect on future climates.Models have been developed to explore potential climatic conditions under different emission scenarios and over different time periods.These models allow us to identify possible future climate hazards(like changing precipitation or temperature patterns)and prepare for different scenarios.Local and scientific knowledge systems are key sources of data for these models and key resources for understanding current and future climate hazards.04Not all values will be equally impacted by climate hazards.Some may not be impacted at all while others may be at significant risk.The degree of risk depends on both the exposure(the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations)and sensitivity(the degree to which a system is affected,either adversely or beneficially,by climate-related stimuli)of the physical attribute which conveys its value.The potential climate impact on an attribute and its value can be exacerbated or alleviated by a range of other factors,which should also be assessed.Step 3:Impact and risk assessmentStep 4:Other Factors,Resilience,and VulnerabilityMany factors can exacerbate climate impacts and risk.These include social and economic vulnerabilities like lack of conservation,under-development,poor planning,unmaintained infrastructure,and over-tourism.These vulnerabilities may impact some values more than others.For example,climate impacts to built heritage like walls or archaeological ruins may be exacerbated by poor conservation or the pressures of over-tourism.Similarly,values associated with the wider landscape may be exacerbated by poor planning or water management.Figure 3:Taher Falahat of PDTRA inspecting recently consolidated Nabatean terraces above the Petra archaeological site(Photo:Michael O.Snyder 2023)05Just as some factors may make climate impacts worse,some actions may reduce these potential impacts.These are referred to as resilience or adaptive capacity and may include existing climate adaptation measures like flood defences,strong conservation plans,or a skilled and knowledgeable professional sector.The could also include traditional or ancient technologies or traditions which reduce risk like the Nabatean water management system at Petra,which controlled and redirected water away from the site.These should be taken into account when assessing climate risk and vulnerability.The methodology of the Petra climate risk assessment is outlined in Figure 4.Preparatory work is crucially important to ensure that data used in the assessment is robust and correct.At Petra,this included the preparation of downscaled climate scenarios prior to the remote based on agreed timeframes and scenarios.As a World Heritage site,certain values have already been defined in the Statement of Outstanding Universal Value(OUV)and these were also extracted prior to community engagement.As discussed in the previous section,this process of engaging the community in climate risk and vulnerability assessment is critically important at every stage.The many diverse stakeholders at Petra including heritage professionals,local businesses,the tourism sector and wider members of the local community necessitated a wider engagement strategy which included hosting focus groups before the workshops.Participants in both the workshop and at the focus groups are listed in Appendices 1 and 2.The Petra Workshop MethodologyPreparation WorkWorkshopPost WorkshopReportClimate Report Day 1Day 2Day 3Presentation ofOUV values&attributes Presentation of climate report Presentation of keyvalues fron focus groups Presentation of keyhazards from focusgroups Presentation on siteadaptive capacity including community response from focusgroups Discussion on key hazards and impacts to values OUTPUTList of key values and attributesOUTPUTRanked list of most impacted attributes and valuesOUTPUTAssessment of key vulnerabilities at siteFieldtripFieldtripFieldtripFocus GroupsOne/Two Day(s)FocusGroups SurveyPost-Workshop Survey with Workshop Attendee Survey Report TeamCommunityCommunityRepresentativesCommunityRepresentativesSpecify timeframe&emissions scenarios OUV Key Values Discussion on ValuesIntroduce what values are&why they are important.Identify key values for FG stakeholders Present Climate ReportPresent results from climate report in an accessible way.Including key hazards likely over the agreed timeframeIdentify ImpactsDiscuss likely impacts to values and prepare a list of key impactsDiscussion on prioritising key values from site06Figure 4:Workshop methodology showing preparation work including research and focus groups,the workshop,and post-survey actions including a survey of participantsOUTPUTList of key values and impacts for the siteStakeholders Responses How are communities responding and how does this reduce the impactsTeamDiscussion on resilience gaps for heritage adaptationDiscussion on vulnerability of key valuesTo encourage participation and promote inclusiveness,specific groups of stakeholders were invited to attend different focus groups held in a local cultural centre(Table 1).Participants were asked to discuss a range of questions as outlined in Appendix 5 and these saved time and contributed to key themes discussed in the workshop(Figure 4).The workshop created a space for local stakeholders to discuss and make decisions about key components of the climate risk assessment.It was held over three days and representatives from each stakeholder focus group were invited to explore key aspects of the risk assessment and agree on an overall risk for the property.Key steps in this assessment are outlined in Figure 4.During the workshop,participants were first asked to rank key site values and identify main climate-related hazards within an agreed timeframe and scenario.Summary results from the focus groups were presented to workshop participants to discuss and this greatly expedited these two steps.Table 1:Focus groups held in advance of the workshopFocus Group 1Saturday 13th May 2023NGOs,CBOs,Cooperatives and those working in the local economyHeritage professionals including PDTRA employeesTourism Service Providers including tour organisers and guidesSunday 14th May,2023Sunday 14th May,2023Focus Group 2Focus Group 307Figure 5:Focus groups sessions(Photo:Khansa Bouaziz,2023)Figure 6:Haifa Abdelhaleem presenting a summary results of the focus groups(Photo:Salma Sabour)08Table 2:Relative rankings for different assessment componentsNot DiscussedPotential Impacts,Exposure and Vulnerability,and Social and Economic Vulnerabilities,Overall RiskAdaptive CapacitiesNoneLowModerateExtremeNot DiscussedNoneLowMediumHighTable 3:Component parts of the Petra climate risk assessmentImpact to DateSignificant FactorsPotential ImpactAdaptive CapacityOverall Risk By 2060,as decided by workshop participants1(Icons from F)TimeframeScenarioValueHazardRiskImpactResilienceVulnerabilityAttributeOther FactorsFigure 7:Icons used during the workshop for key terms and conceptsDuring both the focus groups and the workshop,participants were asked to rank the different components of the assessment using a relative scale of none,low,moderate,and extreme to rank potential impacts,and none,low,medium and high for the adaptive capacity of Petra and surrounding communities(Table 2).The decision to use relative rankings was based on previous experiences,which strongly showed that participants are better able to assess more complex and situational concepts in relative terms.This allows participants to prioritise responses in an applicable and real-world manner suitable for decision making.It also satisfied the precautionary principle by making decisions in the present without causing delay.These components are outlined in Table 3.Following the workshop,a survey was carried out of participants using mobile phone messaging.This ensured a broader response from all participants.Questions including validating workshop findings and assessing how participants felt about the methodology.A summary of results is presented in figure 6.09The workshop experiences was wonderful and very useful.It provided enriching valuable insights into the gravity of climate change and the necessity for proactive measures to safeguard Petras rich heritage and communities Etedal Al-Hasanat,PhD,Workshop Participant1000An Introduction to PetraSection 2:Site Introduction,His?ory,Values and AttributesPetra was a Nabatean city established in the 4th Century BC.Skillful in carving,trade,and water management,the Nabateans established Petra(known locally as Raqmu or Raqm)as a bustling and important trading centre.It was a long-lived urban centre,continuing through the Roman and Byzantine periods.While always known to locals,the site was brought to global attention by the Swiss traveller Johann Burckhardt in 1812.The water management technology at Petra has been widely studied(Ortloff 2005),as the hydraulic Nabataean technology“is inextricably linked to the history of Petra(Comer,2015,231).In fact,Mansour Shqiarat from the Department of Archaeology,Al Hussein Bin Talal University,in his study on Nabataean hydraulics,focused on examining the collection,distribution,and strategic engineering of the Nabataean water management in Petra.Traditionally viewed as a practical resource,this study explores the role of water in relation to Petras establishment as an urban settlement,with emphasis on irrigation,storage,and the significance of the Siq.The paper details the water management system,encompassing methods,controlling devices,and using water sources during the Nabataean period(Shaqirat,2019).Geologist Nizar Abu Jaber and his colleagues studied the implementation of terracing and a flood control system that provided a unique opportunity to study landscape changes from the Late Iron Age until the modern era.They focused on the Hremiyyeh catchment,which flows into the core of the Petra archaeological site,and gave insights into human settlement in the region.The study thoroughly documented the ancient citys topography,geology,and archaeology,along with dating terraces construction.It revealed that the hydrological interventions,beginning in the Late Iron Age,intensified during the Nabataean and Early Roman periods;then,the abandonment of the system in the Byzantine to Early Islamic periods resulted in collapses,gullying,and bedrock downcutting.This seminal study also documented the restoration of the upper terraces built in the 11th century CE,possibly by nomadic settlers(Abu-Jaber et al.,2022).Much ink has been spilled on the topic of water management at Petra in recent decades proposing a wide range of recommendations and approaches(see Abdelal et al 2021)Comer(2015)highlights the deterioration of the water collection infrastructure around the archaeological site,and his recommendations call for a meticulous examination and subsequent implementation of strategies to redirect water flow awayfrom the site,with the main aim of mitigating the negative impact on the archaeological remains associated with the ongoing deterioration of the water collection and management system.11Previous Page Photo By:Khansa Bouaziz,202312Petra as a World Heritage sitePetra was inscribed as a World Heritage site in 1985 for its outstanding universal value(OUV)to all humanity.It was inscribed under criteria(i),(iii),and(iv)of the World Heritage Convention as a masterpiece of human creative genius that bears exceptional testimony to a past cultural tradition and is an outstanding example of a type of building,architectural or technological ensemble which represents an important period of human history.All WH sites have a statement of OUV that outlines how the property meets one or a selection of the criteria of the WH Convention.This is a very valuable document as it outlines key heritage values and attributes to justify the inscription.Preserving these values lies at the core of WH site management as a loss of OUV can lead to the removal of the site from the WH List.The Statement of OUV for Petra can be seen in Appendix 3.The key values and attributes outlined in the Statement of OUV centre on three main areas.These are outlined in table 4.The statement of OUV also outlines management and conservation challenges that risk impacting the integrity of the site.These include over-tourism,wind erosion exacerbated by overgrazing,flash flooding,and local development.All of these factors arose during the focus groups and subsequent workshop,and were considered within the context of climate risk at the site.https:/whc.unesco.org/en/list/326 Table 4:Key values and attributes extracted from the UNESCO WH Statement of OUVKey ValueThe importance of Petra as a nexus for trade and exchange in the region between the fourth century BC and the first century ADThe ingenious water management system which allowed the city to thrive in an arid environment represents an outstanding example of water management from the first centuries BC to AD.The unique architectural achievement of the city manifests in the integration of architecture and landscape.The fusion of local Nabatean,Assyrian,Hellenistic and Byzantine architectural styles evident in buildings and tombs throughout the siteThe remnant channels,tunnels and diversion dams that combined with a vast network of cisterns and reservoirs which controlled and conserved seasonal rainsThe dramatic Nabataean/Hellenistic rock-cut temple/tombs approached via a natural winding rocky cleft(the Siq),which is the main entrance from the east to a once extensive trading city,represent a unique artistic achievementAttribute213Figure 8:Majed Al Hassanet discussing the results of the focus groups with the local participants(Photo:Khansa Bouaziz,2023)The Wider Landscape of PetraIn 2017,Petra joined Jordans National Protected Areas Network,which acknowledges the importance of Petras ecosystems as home to more than 750 plant and animal species in addition to the sites historical and archeological features.The Protected Areas Network,part of UNDPs“Mainstreaming Biodiversity Conservation in Tourism Sector Development in Jordan(BITS)”and supported by the Global Environment Facility and implemented in Petra by the Petra Development and Tourism Region Authority(PDTRA),is also an important step towards designating the landscape nature reserve.Designating Petra as a part of the Protected Areas Network highlights the value of biodiversity as an asset for tourism promotion in Petra,the need to monitor and manage the impacts of tourism within Petra,and the need to enhance conservation and create public awareness about the sensitivity of Petras unique biodiversity.It is worth mentioning that the earliest management plans for Petra Archaeological Park emphasised the need to conserve biodiversity in this area;however,little attention was given to the implementation of these recommendations.The nomination area lies along one of the worlds largest bird migratory flyways.Soaring birds in particular(such as raptors,storks,and ibises)make use of the warm thermals provided by the deep wadis all along the Rift Valley(Wadi Araba)flyway during their migration between Europe and Africa.This makes Petra an attraction site for bird watchers from all over the world.14Figure 9:The Petra water catchment(Source:Al-Weshah et al,1999,170-177)Petra holds significant geomorphological importance within the desert landscape.The southern Jordanian region of Wadi Rum bears remarkable similarities to Petra,featuring a stunning array of sandstone mountains and valleys adorned with extraordinary natural arches.The monuments of Petra are concentrated in the lowest part of the drainage area,where various water courses(wadis)converge.The primary wadi,Wadi Musa,lends its name to the town adjacent to Petra.Constructed and carved by the Nabataeans over 2,000 years ago,these monuments reside in sandstone canyons protected by limited and narrow accesses,such as gorges.The primary access gorge,known as the Siq,is a narrow passage bound by high cliffs,often only a few metres wide and exceeding 60 metres in height.With an average bed slope of about 5%,the Siq is susceptible to flooding during heavy rainfall storms occurring upstream.Despite the downstream area remaining hot and dry,a flood wave can unexpectedly inundate both the Siq and various monuments in Petra without adequate warning.To mitigate such floods,the Nabateans engineered a dam at the Siqs entrance and a tunnel to divert flood waters away from this narrow passage.Petra is situated within the Northern Wadi Araba surface water basin,covering an overall catchment area of approximately 50 km.Divided into nine sub-catchments upstream of Wadi Siagh before its confluence with Wadi Seg El-Ghurah,the catchment exhibits similar spatial distributions of rocks and soil cover.Two main lithological units,the Ajloun formation consisting of marl-limestone alternation outcrops and the Kurnub,Disi,and Umm Ishrin sandstone formations with barren outcrops,define the landscape.This intricate natural setting emphasises the historical and environmental significance of Petras catchment area,showcasing the delicate balance between cultural heritage and natural forces.15Community Values and Key Values for the Risk AssessmentDuring the focus groups and workshop,the heritage and wider landscape values were presented to participants who were also asked to identify what values they felt were most important.A list of key values is outlined in Table 5 which also provides an explanation of each value and examples of associated attributes.Economic values(Agriculture)Key ValueExplanationAttributesThe importance of the wider landscape as a source of foodTerrace and field structures in and around the siteNatural valuesThe importance of the wider natural landscape,its fauna and flora and its geological formations.Natural features including flora and fauna and geological formations,mountains,gorges and natural water systemsHeritage and archaeological valuesThe global significance of the WH site as a centre for trade and the exchange of ideas and its outstanding architecture and hydraulic system.The WH site and its rock-cut structures,key buildings which show the interface of different cultures and its hydrologic systems as outlines in the statement of OUVEconomic Values(Tourism)The importance of direct revenue from visitors to the archaeological siteThe archaeological site and the rock-cut buildings in particularEconomic Values(Local businesses)The importance of indirect revenue from visitors to the archaeological siteThe archaeological site and the rock-cut buildings in particular.Also,Wadi Musa and the surrounding landscape where tourists stay.Political ValuesThe importance of Petra as a political centre in the pastThe impressive structures in the archaeological site,in particular those which speak to the international connections and importance of the site.Religious Values(Zwarah)The importance of religious sites to the local community.Different buildings including Ayn Musa and the Jebel Harun(Tomb of Aaron).Planning valuesThe importance of past infrastructure to manage the site and as a global exemplar of water management and security.Infrastructure associated with water management and flood management,for example.Cisterns,dams and water channels.Table 5:A summary of key values and attributes as identified by focus group and workshop participants and discussed during the workshop16During the workshop,participants were asked to rank these values in terms of importance to different stakeholder groups.Four key values emerged:The economic values associated with tourism at the World Heritage site;the economic values associated with agriculture in the wider Petra landscape;the archaeological and historical values associated with the World Heritage site;and the natural values and the wider landscape in and around the World Heritage site.Potential impacts to these values formed the core of the climate risk assessment outlined in the proceeding sections.1.Economic Values Associated with Tourism at the World Heritage SiteThe economic values and benefits of Petra as a World Heritage Site tourist destination were identified as the most important value for the local community.This included the direct revenue from ticket sales at the site and the indirect revenue from local businesses,including hotels,restaurants,tourist souvenir shops,and transportation.It was felt that a loss of these values would have disastrous repercussions to the local community.The recent global health pandemic was often cited as an example of the impact of a decrease in tourism.Attributes:The sandstone carved historic buildings,the Siq and the cultural and natural landscape,which people from all over the world come to visit.The loss of these attributes would result in damage to the economic value of the site.Figure 10:Tourists in the Al-Siq,Petra(Photo:Michael O.Snyder 2023)172.The importance of agriculture to the community was regularly mentioned.This included foodstuffs like fruit,vegetables and grains,but also medicinal plants which were a source of revenue for many.Agriculture is not a permanent occupation for many but most people retain some land and work the land with family to provide food.Attributes:Field systems,terraces,olive groves,and fruit trees as well as wells,cisterns,and hydrological elements used to facilitate agriculture in and around the Petra site.Special plants with historical and contemporary medicinal use within the community.3.The global significance and importance of the World Heritage Site was identified as a key value,both to stakeholders directly involved in heritage management,staff from the PDTRA,and the wider community,who expressed deep pride at its value to others.The values are wide-ranging and include research and scholarship of Petras archaeology and engineering.Attributes:The sandstone carved historic buildings and the cultural landscape and the built structures(temples,roads,bathhouses,etc.).This includes the different historic layers including Nabatean,Roman,etc.Figure 11:Examples of monuments at the archaeological site(Photos:Khansa Bouaziz,2023)18Natural Values and the Wider Landscape in and Around the World Heritage site4.The significance of the wider natural landscape of the World Heritage Site was identified as a key value,which is often overlooked due to the predominant focus on cultural aspects of the site.It was noted that these values may too be outstanding;however,were not included in the original inscription of the site.The nature-culture divide was regularly cited as an obstacle to fully appreciate the natural values of the area.Attributes:The environment and biodiversity(fauna and flora)of the site including plants,trees,and animals and their ecosystems.Also,geological formations,mountains,gorges and natural water systems.Figure 12:The stunning geological formations of the Petra landscape(Photo:Will Megarry,2023)0020IntroductionSection 3:The Climate Context Pas?,Present,and FutureThis section highlights the administrative,geographic,and climatic characteristics of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan with a specific focus on climate change in the iconic World Heritage Site of Petra.The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan,situated at the heart of the Arab world and the Middle East,is a nation deeply rooted in the concept of pan-Arabism.Jordan is part of the Mediterranean Region,located approximately 80 km east of the Mediterranean Sea.The countrys unique topographic nature is shaped by its position between 29103345N and 34553920E,resulting in a predominantly Mediterranean climate characterised by hot and dry summers and wet and cool winters.Jordan is divided into twelve Governorates encompassing various districts and sub-districts.Each Governorateis overseen by a Governor appointed by the King through the Minister of the Interior,establishing them as local extensions of the central government.Governors are entrusted with maintaining law and order in their respective areas.These Governorates,including Amman(the capital),Irbid,Zarqa,Mafraq,Ajloun,Jerash,Madaba,Balqa,Karak,Tafileh,Maan,and Aqaba,play a crucial role in the countrys governance(see the map below Figure 13).Petra is situated in the Maan Governorate of Jordan.Despite its relatively small size(89,213 square kilometres),Jordan showcases a diverse terrain reminiscent of larger countries.The topography and landscape are influenced by factors such as geography,historical influences,geopolitics,and the constraints of natural resource scarcity.Notably,approximately three-quarters of the country is characterised by desert landscapes,marked by five principal physiographic regions that extend in a northsouth alignment:the tropical desert in the central Ghor or rift valley;the escarpments and mountain highlands east of the Ghor;arid plains;the Badia;and the Azraq;and Wadi Sirhan depression.These regions correspond to five major morphological zones(Ababsa,2013):1.2.Highlands at the Eastern Edge of the Wadi Araba-Jordan Graben:This landscape,known as the Mountain Ridge and Northern Highlands,exhibits tectonic activity and structural movements.The northern Highlands extend through various mountains and deep wadis,hosting natural forests and landmarks like Wadi Rum.Jordan Valley and Wadi Araba Rift(Ghor):This distinctive landscape is part of the Rift Valley,extending from North Syria to East Africa.The Jordan Depression,running from Wadi Araba to the Dead Sea,features significantly lower elevations than the eastern Highlands.The area is marked by the lowest depression on earth,including the Jordan River and the crucial Jordan Valley,considered the food basket of Jordan.Previous Page Photo By:Khansa Bouaziz,20233.4.5.Figure 13:Map of the twelve Governorates of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015QadaSeaGovernorate Boundary)21Central Desert Areas of East Jordan(Arid Plains):Encompassing plains between the Badiya and the Highlands,this landscape features distinctive flat or gently sloping terrain with chert rock cover.It includes the Depression of al-Jafr and rises to the escarpment of Ras al-Naqab.Badiya Region(North-Eastern Desert):Covering 90%of Jordan,this extensive region meets the Arabian Desert and consists of the Northeast Jordanian Basalt Plateau and Limestone Plateau.Sparse vegetation,low rainfall,and diverse characteristics define this region.Azraq-Wadi Sirhan Depression:This landscape rises gradually from 500 m to 700 m in the southeast,collecting water from adjacent wadis.Historically important,it served as a trade route between the Highlands and the Arabian Peninsula.22 Climate Dynamics and Future Projections in Jordan:An in-Depth ScientificAnalysisIntroduction to Jordans ClimatePredominantly originating from the Mediterranean,depressions and air masses play a crucial role in defining Jordans climate,particularly during December and January when they coincide with polar air masses from northern Europe.These interactions significantly contribute to the dynamic and often unpredictable weather conditions experienced in the region.Moreover,during the summer,a notable low-pressure belt prevails over North Africa,extending across the Arabian and Indian Oceans.This belt attracts hot and dry northerly continental tropical air masses from high-pressure centres over Mesopotamia and Asia Minor,contributing to the overall climatic dynamics of the area.The transitional seasons of spring and autumn introduce the phenomenon of Khamsin depressions or Saharian depressions influencing shifts in weather patterns during these periods.The impact of Khamsin and Shammal winds plays a defining role in shaping Jordans climate.Khamsin Winds,also referred to as Dry Sirocco,emanate from the south or southeast,primarily manifesting in spring and autumn.Notorious for inducing substantial temperature anomalies,these winds can lead to rapid temperature increases of up to 15C,significantly affecting the region.Khamsin winds are characterised by strong winds,dust clouds,and swift temperature rises,persisting for approximately a day and posing challenges such as discomfort and threats to crops through desiccation.Meanwhile,the Shamal winds,originating from the north and northwest as a dry continental mass of polar air,dominate the summer months,specifically from June to September.Exhibiting remarkable steadiness during daytime hours and transforming into a gentle breeze at night,Shamal winds persist for extended durations.They contribute to elevated daytime temperatures,gradually moderating after sunset.While Khamsin Winds are noted for their rapid and intense nature,Shamal Winds exhibit a steadier and more persistent pattern during specific seasons,each playing distinctive roles in shaping Jordans climate.Temperature patterns showcase distinctive variations across Jordans diverse landscapes and contribute to the diverse climate experienced throughout the country.They rise rapidly from dissected plateaus to very low-level graben,increase gradually from dissected plateaus to the eastern margins of the eastern desert,and decrease gradually from north to south with increasing altitude.The annual temperature ranges display substantial variation,with different regions experiencing specific temperature brackets.Jordans seasonal characteristics manifest prominently,with a peak in the long summer observed during August,while January marks the coolest month.Notably,temperature variations during a 24-hour period are most significant in the summer months,intensifying with higher elevation and distance from the Mediterranean coast.23A comprehensive grasp of these climatic intricacies is imperative for effective management of climate change-related challenges,strategic planning in tourism and agriculture,and overall preparedness to navigate the dynamic and diverse weather conditions prevalent in Jordan.Climate Change Hazards in JordanFuture Climate Scenarios in JordanJordan faces various climate hazards,such as extreme temperature,droughts,flash floods,storms,and landslides.These hazards are likely to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.Since the 1980s,Jordan has witnessed three significant flood events in 1987,1991,and most recently in 2018(The World Bank Group,2021).Flash floods pose a serious threat to densely populated urban areas like Amman,the heritage site of Petra,and Aqaba,jeopardising lives and causing extensive damage to infrastructure,agricultural lands,and properties.Landslides and erosion have been particularly concentrated in steep mountain slopes and wadis.The impending impact of climate change necessitates comprehensive adaptation planning across sectors like agriculture,coastal areas,biodiversity,urban environments,society,water resources,and health.Jordans diverse geography and climate pose both challenges and opportunities.With climate change intensifying hazards,adaptation planning is crucial to ensure resilience across various sectors.Understanding the countrys unique topography and administrative structure is fundamental for effective governance and sustainable development.In preparing the 4th National Communication report for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan,the research team conducted a detailed analysis of future climate projections using advanced modelling techniques.These projections are formulated under two scenarios,namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5,utilising the de-biased and validated reference Regional Climate Models(RCM)(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015).The future prediction maps for various climate indices are generated using the co-kriging technique in conjunction with local Digital Elevation Model(DEM)data(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015).For clarity,the presentation condenses long-term climate variables into three temporal horizons:2020-2050,2040-2070,and 2070-2100.The subsequent sections provide a concise overview of the primary findings derived from future projections related to all climate variables,followed by the implications of the climate forecasts for air temperatures,precipitation,relative humidity,wind speed,potential evapotranspiration,and other key variables.Each of these variables,integral to the climate scenario,contributes significantly to a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for Jordan in the face of changing climate conditions.24Table 6 details the temporal evolution of future forecasted climate variables across short,medium-medium-,and long-term durations,offering a comprehensive insight into anticipated climatic changes.In the historical period from 1990 to 2020,Jordan experienced an average precipitation of 219.85,punctuated by maximum(Tmax)and minimum(Tmin)temperatures of 25.34C and 12.49C,respectively.The intricate interplay of environmental elements included a relative humidity of 44.34%,a wind speed averaging 4.68 m/s,potential evapotranspiration registering at 2529.62,and heatwave-degree-days count of 143.38.Climate change scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)paint a dynamic portrait of variability over short-term(20-50 years),medium-term(40-70 years),and long-term(70-100 years)periods.These projections illuminate the nuanced and evolving nature of Jordans climate,urging a holistic perspective in addressing future challenges and opportunities.Under the RCP 4.5 scenario,short-term projections signify a dip in precipitation to 184.47 mm,accompanied by intensified maximum and minimum temperatures(25.87C and 13.07C),underscoring the pressing need for adaptive strategies.Conversely,the RCP 8.5 scenario foresees a contrasting narrative,with a substantial precipitation surge(201.56 mm)and profound shifts in various climatic parameters,emphasising the imperative for comprehensive climate change mitigation and adaptation policies across diverse time frames.As Jordan navigates these evolving climatic dynamics,fostering resilience and sustainability becomes not only a strategic imperative but a pivotal aspect of safeguarding the nations ecological integrity and socio-economic well-being.Future Climate Changes:An Overview Pcp Tmax Tmin RH WS Etp HW Historical Period 1990-2020 219.85 25.34 12.49 44.34 4.68 2529.62 143.38 RCP 4.5 184.47 25.87 13.07 42.81 4.68 2600.03 209.08 185.15 26.24 13.48 42.54 4.68 2643.15 240.15 178.36 26.50 13.72 42.23 4.67 2646.89 290.35 RCP 8.5 201.56 26.13 13.42 42.93 4.63 2612.92 221.85 158.13 26.97 14.07 40.65 4.63 2687.88 304.69 111.88 28.43 15.26 38.02 4.58 2782.01 480.27 Table 6:Summary of the future climate forecasts regarding short,medium,and long terms:Precipitation(Pcp),Maximum Temperature(Tmax),Minimum Temperature(Tmin),Relative Humidity(RH),Wind Speed(WS),Potential Evapotranspiration(ETp),and Heatwave(HW)(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Long Term (70-100)Medium Term(40-70)Short Term (20-50)Long Term (70-100)Medium Term(40-70)Short Term (20-50)2020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.534Figure 14:Project average maximum temperature for three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)25Future Air Temperature ProjectionsJordan is expected to face a warmer climate by the year 2100.The projections indicate a significant likelihood of the minimum air temperature to rise by 1.2 C 0.6 C to 2.9 C under RCP 4.5(Table 6).Simultaneously,the maximum air temperature is expected to rise,with an extremely likely increase of 1.1 C 0.7 C to 1.7 C under RCP 4.5(Table 6).To assess the spatial and temporal exposure risks,the projected differences in average maximum and minimum air temperatures for the three-time horizons are assessed using RCP 4.5(Figure 14 and 15,respectively).)2020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.56-88-10Future Min Air Temperature(C)14-1610-13.516-1818-2013.5-1420-28Figure 15:Projected average minimum air temperature for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015Figure 17:Projected Differences in Annual Precipitation for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)26Future Precipitation TrendsAccording to the projections for future daily,monthly,and seasonal precipitation,the country will witness a significantly drier climate.By the end of the 21st century,the country is likely to experience a noticeable decline in precipitation.The projections suggest a decrease of 15.8%-7.1%to-31.3%under RCP 4.5,considering that certain areas are anticipated to receive increased precipitation,with a maximum increase of 19%under RCP 4.5.The projections highlight a pronounced likelihood of significant precipitation decrease,particularly in the western reaches of the country.Conversely,the southern arid zones where Petra is located emerge as potential beneficiaries of increased precipitation(Figure 16).To assess the spatial and temporal exposure risks,the projected differences in average precipitation for the three time horizons were mapped using RCP 4.5(Figure 17).2020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.5Future Precipitation(mm)500250-250250-300150-200300-350350-400Figure 16:Projected Annual Precipitation for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)2020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.54027The northern part of the region,notably the Yarmouk Basin,faces a substantial maximum exposure risk.This projection carries significant implications for key sectors,particularly water and agriculture,thereby necessitating strategic planning and the implementation of adaptive measures to mitigate potential challenges.In contrast to the challenges in the north,the Eastern and Southern Badia regions,including Petra,paint a different picture.Here,precipitation is anticipated to experience a surge,reaching a maximum of 40%compared to the historical baseline scenario by the year 2050.However,this upward trend is expected to reverse,leading to a reduction of 10%by the close of the century.Understanding and preparing for these distinct climatic trajectories in various regions is crucial for effective long-term planning and resilience building.In the delicate balance between precipitation and temperature,potential evapotranspiration emerges as a linchpin,providing a perspective on the impending challenges in Jordans water landscape.The reduction in precipitation and the increase in temperature forecast a substantial rise in potential evapotranspiration.According to the projections,a very likely increase of 5.8% 4.7%to 6.9%is anticipated under RCP 4.5.These figures underscore a discernible escalation in water demand,setting the stage for a critical juncture in resource management.The short-term impacts are predicted to concentrate primarily on the southern region of the country.However,as time passes,these effects are likely to extend their reach,enveloping the western and northern Badia regions by the end of the 21st century(Figure 18).This spatial evolution is depicted in Figure 19,illustrating the projected differences in potential evapotranspiration across three pivotal time horizons for RCP 4.5.Future Evapotranspiration Projections2020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.53,000Future Etp(mm/y)Figure 18:Projected Annual Etp for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)282020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.50-13-57-911-131-35-79-1113-15Figure 19:Projected Differences in Annual Etp for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)Drought was assessed using the Standardised Precipitation Index(SPI)methodology,pioneered by McKee et al.(1993).Standardised precipitation values were calculated by dividing the deviation between seasonal precipitation and the long-term seasonal mean precipitation by the standard deviation.According to the criteria proposed by McKee et al.(1993,1995),a drought event is defined as any period where the SPI remains consistently negative,reaching an intensity of-1.0 or lower,and concludes when the SPI transitions to positive values.The severity of drought is categorised into seven classes:extremely wet(SPI 2),very wet(1.5 to 1.99),moderately wet(1.0 to 1.49),near normal(-0.99 to 0.99),moderate drought(-1.49 to-1),severe drought(-1.99 to-1.5),and extreme drought(SPI -2).According to the occurrence of drought events(SPI 1824-66-88-10Historic Drought Probability(%)Figure 21 lays bare the future projections of drought probabilities under RCP 4.5.The narrative unfolds with a significant increase in drought probability until the end of the 21st century,particularly in the northern region of the country.By the end of the 21st century,the drought probability is likely to increase in magnitude reaching a maximum probability of 50%under RCP 4.5.Drought duration is likely to become longer,with more than 3 consecutive years using RCP 4.5.These projections paint a stark picture of the evolving climate landscape,urging a comprehensive understanding of the implications for water resources,agriculture,and societal resilience.Figure 20:Historical SPI estimated by the number of drought events(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)10-2050-6060-7070-8080-9090-1000-1020-3030-4040-502020-2050 using RCP 4.52040-2070 using RCP 4.52070-2100 using RCP 4.5Future Drought Probability(%)Figure 21:Projected Differences in drought probability,for the three time horizons using RCP 4.5(The Hashemite Kingdom Of Jordan,2015)30In the realm of meteorology,the term heatwave conjures increasing temperatures,challenging the resilience of ecosystems and communities.Meteorologically,a heatwave manifests as a trio of scorching days,each surpassing the normal long-term average maximum temperature by 5C or more.A meticulous calculation of the annual count of heatwave events unveils the changing face of this meteorological phenomenon.Between 1990 to 2020,a significant increase(P200500 Identify key values and attributes for FG stakeholders 2-Present climate report:1.2.3.4.5.=Prepare a list of key hazards Values/attributes/OUV from the needed perspective of heritage scienceHazards,impact,impact assessment,vulnerabilitiesAdaptation,adaptive capacity,mitigation,reducing impacts,mal-adaptationClimate,Weather,climate change,Why is this site important for you as a member of the community?Whats its importance for the community?From your perspective,what are the key attributes of the site?They may be key physical places(like the treasury),or specific flora or fauna?From your perspective,what are the key values of the site?Are there any conflicts between different values?Have you ever heard about climate change?And do you think that this is happening only in your region or is it a global issue?Have you ever noticed a change in the climate of your region over recent years?From your perspective,what are the reasons behind climate change?And is it possible to live normally with the new environmental reality?Did you mention any impacts on your personal lifestyle caused by a climate hazard or the climate change?What are the hazards that you think would be the most impactful on the heritage values of the site?For example,how might climate change impact your activities at the site?Over what time frames might this happen?783-Identify Impacts:1.2.3.4.5.=Come up with a list of key impacts4-Stakeholder responses:1.2.3.4.=Ideas on how to mitigate the impacts of climate change from different perspectives.Present Impacts:How vulnerable do you think the site is from climate change?Do you think that the climate could have a considerable impact on the heritage attributes of your site?the values?(especially that most of the attributes of the site resisted for many long centuries)Past Impacts:Are there any values or attributes which we have already lost at the site?Future Impacts:What are the most vulnerable/fragile values towards climate change that we may lose soon?In a decade?By 2050?By 2100?What are the possible impacts that could affect the property?6.Do you feel/think that the impacts on heritage would affect your families and your communities?how?Is it possible to adapt to the impacts of climate change?Do you feel like yo have a say in climate change adaptations at the siteWho is supposed to do the impact assessment of climate on heritage attributes and values?How could the impact assessment become a participatory/inclusive action in the property?Wadi Mousa,Petra-Jordanwww.pdtra.gov.jo www.heritageadapts.orgwww.icomos.orgwww.climateheritage.orgPETRA NATIONAL TRUST 28 Kullyet Al Sharea St,Jabal al Weibdeh,Amman-Jordanwww.petranationaltrust.org
2024-07-25
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A SPECIAL REPORT ON GLOBAL EXPOSURE TO AIR POLLUTION AND ITS HEALTH IMPACTS,WITH A FOCUS ON CHILDRENS HEALTHIn partnership withThe State of Global Air is a collaboration between the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations Global Burden of Disease project.Citation:Health Effects Institute.2024.State of Global Air 2024.Special Report.Boston,MA:Health Effects Institute.ISSN 2578-6873 2024 Health Effects InstituteWHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air is a research and outreach initiative to provide accurate,meaningful,and the latest information about air quality and its health impacts around the world.A collaboration of the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations Global Burden of Disease project,the program gives citizens,journalists,policymakers,and scientists access to high-quality,objective information about air pollution and its health impacts.All data,tools,and reports are free and available to the public.ABOUT THIS REPORTNow in its fifth iteration,the State of Global Air 2024 report presents information on exposures to and health impacts of exposure to common air pollutants including fine particulate matter,ozone,and for the first time,nitrogen dioxide,from 19902021.The report draws upon the best available air quality data,estimates of health risks,and demographic data to produce globally comparable country-level data.The SoGA initiative provides a comprehensive resource that complements other sources of information on air pollution and health.This report is produced in partnership with UNICEF and includes a focus on childrens health.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics.Anyone can use the website to access data for cities and countries around the world and track long-term trends for air pollutants and associated health impacts at www.stateofglobalair.org.HEISoGAData and figures from this publication may be used for noncommercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.Please write to us at contactsogahealtheffects.org for more information.-CONTENTSIntroduction .4Exposure to Air Pollution .7Air Pollutions Burden of Disease .14Air Pollution and Childrens Health .21The Rising Threat of NoncommunicableDiseases .27Conclusions .29Key Resources .30Contributors and Funding .32APPENDIX I:Methodology .338.1 million total deathsdue to air pollution in 202158aths from ambient PM2.538%6aths from household air pollutiondeaths from ozone2ndlargest risk factor of deaths in 2021In South Asia and East,West,Central and Southern Africa,air pollution accounts for nearly 30%of all deaths in the first month after birth.2ndlargest risk factor of deaths in 2021Countries in South Asia and Africa face the highest burden of disease.Since 2000The disease burden for household air pollution(HAP)has decreased largely due to reductions in exposure in China and South Asia.There has been a 36cline in deaths from HAP.1.High blood pressure2.Air pollution3.Tobacco4.Diet5.High fasting plasma glucoseGlobal Risk Factors for DeathAir pollution is responsible for28%of deaths from ischemic heart disease.30%of deaths from lower respiratory infections.48%of deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Lower respiratory infection deaths are decreasing across most regions.709,000 total deaths from air pollution in 2021.The largest burden of disease is seen in Asia and Africa.The Good NewsThe disease burden linked to air pollution in children under 5 has decreased by 35%since 2010,driven largely by reductions in HAP.air pollutionrelated deaths by pollutantChildren Under 572%HAP28%PM2.581%of countries met WHO IT-1 (35 g/m3)64%of countries met WHO IT-2 (25 g/m3)34%of countries met WHO IT-3 (15 g/m3)14%of countries met WHO IT-4 (10 g/m3)The interim targets(ITs)were developed based on current scientific evidence and are intended to be used in diverse conditions to support air quality management.For more,see the WHO air quality guidelines.Populations from low-and middleincome countries are exposed to-1.34 timeshigher levels of ambient PM2.5.Globally,ambient PM2.5 levels are reducing or stabilizing in many regions.31.3 g/m3 average global exposure of ambient PM2.51.Malnutrition2.Air pollution3.Water,sanitation,and hygiene 4.High or low temperature5.TobaccoGlobal Risk Factors for Death for Children Under 5 Years4 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.INTRODUCTIONThe United Nations General Assembly has formally declared access to a clean,healthy,and sustainable environment a universal human right,especially for children.In 2023,the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child emphasized the childrens right to a clean,healthy,and sustainable environment.Yet,it is a right that goes unfulfilled for billions of people.In 2021,air pollution contributed to 8.1 million deaths more than 1 in 8 deaths worldwide.Most people on Earth are exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution.Each year,millions of people die early,and many more live with debilitating chronic diseases because of breathing polluted air.The threat of air pollution is not new,but it is changing.Air pollution has contributed to death and disease and has hurt economic prospects and community resilience fordecades.During that time,policies and technologies have succeeded in drastically improving air quality in some areas,saving lives,and proving that pollution is not an inevitable byproduct of economic development.Yet despite this encouraging progress,the threats posed by air pollution have continued to mount as they merge with the threats posed by global climate change and increasingly aging populations.-Brussels,BelgiumMany sources of air pollution including the burning of fossil fuels and biomass are also contributors to greenhouse gas emissions that are causing our planet to warm.As we continue to burn these fuels in our vehicles,power plants,factories,fields,and homes,both air pollution and the impact on our climate grow worse.At the same time,the symptoms of climate change are further exacerbating air pollution.As droughts become more severe and prolonged and land becomes drier,wildfires ravage once-thriving forests and dust storms impact vast plains,filling the air with particles that linger for long periods of time.When summer temperatures soar,airborne pollutants such as nitrogen oxides catalyze with increased vigor,speeding the formation of ozone,which also has health implications.As societies struggle to adapt and limit suffering caused by the changing climate,finding solutions that can address such interconnected challenges is of increasing importance.Like climate change,air pollution affects us all but brings disproportionate impacts for some:pregnant people,babies and children,older people,those living in poverty,and those who have been historically marginalized.The scale and urgency of the challenges are hard to overstate.Yet there are also glimmers of hope all around us.By describing the magnitude of the air pollution problem and its true toll on human health and providing examples of actions being taken to improve air quality around the globe we intend this report to inspire and inform efforts to reclaim and rebuild the healthy environment.Air pollution was the second leading risk factor for death among children under 5 in 2021,after malnutrition.Air Pollution in Hanoi,Vietnam UNICEF/LinhSTATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 5What This Report Covers This State of Global Air report presents the latest comprehensive estimates of exposures to fine particulate matter(PM2.5),nitrogen dioxide(NO2),and ozone and their impacts on human health around the world.The main data source is the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study(GBD 2021)of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation,which is a collaboration of more than 10,000 researchers worldwide that produces comparable global estimates of 88 environmental,behavioral,and dietary risk factors on health across 204 countries and territories from 19902021.Updated regularly,this comparative risk assessment uniquely describes both the absolute and relative importance of the multiple health risk factors that contribute to the global burden of disease and put air pollution into perspective.The results,reported here,offer a comprehensive account of exposures and a foundation for informing decisions and actions toward a healthier world.The report focuses on air pollution and health trends seen globally within the GBD Super Regions(countries grouped by similar cause-of-death patterns;see Figure i)and in the most populous countries.Interactive maps and figures,downloadable data,and additional resources on the State of Global Air website allow deeper exploration and visualization of air pollution levels and health impacts in individual cities,countries,and regions.Whats New for This IterationWith each update,the GBD Study incorporates the latest scientific evidence and methods to refine estimates of the burden of disease or impacts on population health from air pollution and other risk factors.Inclusion of a new pollutant:Previous iterations have presented trends for two categories of fine-particle air pollution ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels as well as ground-level ozone.This report covers trends for those same pollutants plus NO2,a pollutant common in urban areas that is often used as a marker of traffic-related air pollution.In many cities,exposure to NO2 continues to be high;NO2 can also react with other chemicals in the atmosphere to produce particulate matter and ozone.Inclusion of a new health outcome:As the first iteration developed in partnership with UNICEF,this report also provides an in-depth analysis of the impacts of air pollution on children,including,for the first time,estimates of the impact of NO2 exposures on the development of childhood asthma.Effect of COVID-19 on the global burden of disease:The report is also the first report since the COVID-19 pandemic and provides disease burden estimates through 2021.The latest GBD estimates,GBD 2021,provide the first comprehensive global assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on the burden of disease(disability-adjusted life years,or DALYs),mortality,and life expectancy in the context of 288 causes of death from 1990 to 2021.From 1990 through 2019,the leading global causes of death were ischemic heart disease(IHD),stroke,chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder(COPD),and lower respiratory disease,for which air pollution is a leading risk factor.However,in 2021 the COVID pandemic shifted this ordering,with age-standardized mortality from COVID ranking second after IHD and stroke and COPD dropping to third and fourth place,respectively.GBD 2021 did not attempt to estimate the burden of disease or mortality from COVID attributable to any risk factor,including air pollution,due to limitations in the understanding of COVID risk factors.Note:The data presented are global estimates based on a range of publicly available datasets and do not necessarily represent datasets submitted to UN agencies by national governments.All GBD estimates are subject to a rigorous peer-review process;the data reported have been published in The Lancet in May 2024;and the exposure data reported are for the year 2020.FIGURE i.Countries included in the seven GBD Super Regions.6 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024Key Definitions Total number of deaths The number of deaths in a given year attributable to past exposure to air pollution.Age-standardized ratesThe total number of deaths or DALYs per 100,000 people,calculated based on a standard population distribution across age categories.Age-standardized rates allow direct comparison of the disease burden among countries with different population sizes and age distribution(e.g.,older or younger).Higher air pollutionattributable,age-standardized disease rates reflect a combination of higher air pollution levels and sicker populations.Disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)DALYs represent both the years of life lost from premature deaths and years lived in poor health(e.g.,years lived with paralysis from a stroke related to air pollution exposure).One DALY equals one lost year of healthy life.DALYs are higher when young people die compared with when old people die because young people still have many years ahead of them.Given the set of diseases currently attributed to air pollution in GBD,most of the DALY burden stems from early deaths rather than years of life with a disability;for this reason,the State of Global Air focuses largely on mortality.Uncertainty intervals(UIs)Estimates of uncertainty are provided for every value in the form of 95%uncertainty intervals(UIs),representing the range between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the distribution of possible values.Beijing,ChinaUnsplash THE STATE OF AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH IMPACTS IN AFRICA 7 A REPORT FROM THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR INITIA-TIVE WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 7EXPOSURE TO AIR POLLUTION Air pollution is a complex mixture including particles and different gases with sources and composition varying over space and time.While hundreds of chemical compounds can be measured in the air,governments typically measure only a small subset as indicators of the different types of air pollution and major sources contributing to that pollution.Sometimes referred to as criteria pollutants,these pollutants include particulate matter,nitrogen dioxide,sulfur dioxide,ozone,and carbon monoxide,and are known to harm our health and ecosystems.PM2.5,NO2,and ozone are the three indicators used to quantify air pollution exposures in the GBD study.99%of the worlds population lives in places with unhealthy levels of PM2.5 pollution.34%lives in areas that exceed even the least stringent WHO interim air quality targets.FINE PARTICLE AIR POLLUTION Fine particle air pollution,or PM2.5,refers to airborne particles measuring less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter(less than a 30th of the diameter of a human hair).These particles,as well as precursor chemicals that contribute to their formation in the atmosphere,are emitted from vehicles,residential fuel use,coal-burning power plants,agricultural and industrial activities,waste burning,wildfires,and many other human and natural sources.Among the key air pollutants that are currently measured,long-term exposure to PM2.5 is the most consistent and accurate predictor of poor health outcomes across populations.Recent studies,including several from the Health Effects Institute conducted in Europe,Canada,and the United States,have shown that even people living in areas with very low levels of PM2.5(e.g.,as low as 4 g/m3 or even lower)can still experience adverse health effects.Much of the research on PM2.5 divides exposures into two main categories:exposures due to pollution from outdoor sources(ambient air pollution)and pollution due to household solid fuel use for cooking(household air pollution).High levels of ambient PM2.5 pollution persist in large areas of the world and billions of people are currently exposed.Household air pollution affects nearly half the worlds population but is heavily concentrated in specific geographic areas including Asia and Africa.Both indoor and outdoor exposures to air pollution pose serious problems for human health.Ambient PM2.5 concentrations are measured in micrograms ofparticulate matter per cubic meter of air,or g/m3.The GBD study estimates exposure as the population-weighted annual average concentration,a measure that represents annual averages across an entire country or geographic region.It is also important to recognize that people may be exposed to considerably higher concentrations day to day or during certain seasons,especially around cities or major pollution sources and during episodes such as those related to wildfire smoke or agricultural burning.Household air pollution exposure results from burning solid fuels for cooking,heating,or other domestic tasks.Burning these fuels produces an array of health-harming pollutants,including PM2.5 and its constituent black carbon and carbon monoxide.The GBD study estimates household air pollution exposures based on the proportion of the population that lives in households burning solid fuels,such as coal,wood,dung,or agricultural residues for cooking(a major source of this pollution),in combination with estimates of levels of PM2.5 from household and personal exposure measurement studies.These estimates are likely to understate the total exposure and disease burden in some locations because they do not include exposures related to the use of solid fuels for heating,boiling water,or other residential tasks,nor do they include exposures from burning of liquid fuels,such as kerosene.Household air pollution is also a major contributor to ambient PM2.5 and it is sometimes a dominant source.For example,a recent review article estimated that nearly 20%of the global ambient PM2.5 is attributed to household air pollution reaching outdoor air.However,these exposures are accounted for as part of exposures to ambient PM2.5 in the data discussed below.PM2.5 TRENDS Globally,ambient PM2.5 levels are decreasing or stabilizing in many regions.The global average exposure for ambient PM2.5 in 2020 was 31.3 g/m3(95%uncertainty interval UI:29.633.3 g/m3).Thehighest annual average exposures were seen in South Asia;East,West,Central,and SouthernAfrica;North Africa;and the Middle East(Figure 1).Worldwide,eight of the ten countries with the highest PM2.5 exposures are in Africa,and the remaining two are in the Middle East.At the regional level,major sources of PM2.5 in the Middle East and North Africa include dust,power plants,transportation,and industries,while South Asia has some of the largest PM2.5 exposure due to residential fuel use,energy generation,industries,and agriculture.Of note,high PM2.5 exposures in North and West Africa are influenced by windblown mineral dust,in addition to Countries in Asia,Africa,and the Middle East continue to experience the highest levels of ambient PM2.5.8 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024FIGURE 1.Global map of national population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations in 2020.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.human-made sources.Concurrently,in many of these countries,large proportions of the population use solid fuels for cooking and may engage in open burning of agricultural lands or forests,all of which contribute to outdoor air pollution The differences in exposure to PM2.5 across these regions have largely remained constant over the past decade:in low-and middle-income countries(LMICs)exposures are between one and four times higher compared to those in high-income countries(HICs)(Figure 2).In large part,these regional trends track closely with socioeconomic development and national policy actions.Regions including South Asia,Southeast and East Asia and Oceania(especially China),Central and Eastern Europe,and Central Asia have seen reductions in PM2.5 exposures in the last two decades.Tracking progress:Although nearly all of the worlds population is exposed to air pollution,the good news is that 81%of the 194 countries already meet the Interim Target 1(IT-1,35 g/m3)for annual PM2.5 established by the WHO.Only one country,Finland,had a population-weighted,annual average PM2.5 lower than the most stringent WHO Air Quality Guideline of 5 g/m3 in 2020.WHO Air Quality GuidelinesIn response to a request by governments at the 68th World Health Assembly in May 2015,in Geneva,Switzerland,the World Health Organizaton(WHO)revised the Air Quality Guidelines(AQGs)as of 2021.The updated guidelines are based on evidence from studies around the world and offer evidence-based public health recommendations and guidance on air quality(Table i).In addition to the AQG values,WHO has also recommended interim targets to facilitate realistic plans that can lead to gradual and meaningful reductions in the disease burden linked to air pollution.Together,the AQG values and interim targets provide a thorough,data-driven framework for countries to improve air quality and protect peoples health.TABLE i.World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline Values and Interim Targets for Various Pollutants Pollutant Averaging TimeAQGIT-4IT-3IT-2IT-1Change Compared to 2005 AQGPM2.5(g/m3)Annual24-hour*51510251537.525503575TightenedTightenedPM10(g/m3)Annual24-hour*1545205030755010070150Tightened TightenedOzone(g/m3)Peak season*8-hour6010070120100160NewUnchangedN02(g/m3)Annual24-hour*102520305040120TightenedNewSO2(g/m3)24-hour*4050125LoosenedCO(mg/m3)24-hour*47NewAQG=air quality guideline;IT-4 ITI=specific interim targets.*Average of daily maximum 8-hour mean ozone concentration in 6 consecutive months with highest 6-month running average ozone concentration.*Not to be exceeded more than 4 days/year.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 9FIGURE 2.Trends in population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations globally and in the GBD Super Regions,20102020.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.FIGURE 3.Trends in the proportion of population cooking with solid fuels globally and in the GBD Super Regions,20102020.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.WHO Target Annual Mean%of people living in areas that meet WHO Air Quality Guidelines for PM2.520102020IT-1,35 g/m359f%IT-2,25 g/m339E%IT-3,15 g/m316%IT-4,10 g/m3 5%9%Air Quality Guideline,5 g/m31%Finland less than 1%*Finland is the only country that met the annual WHO AQG in 2020.Because these population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations represent annual averages across entire countries,they include but do not fully represent the considerably higher concentrations that may be observed day to day or in certain seasons,especially around cities or major pollution sources.For instance,in Southeast Asia,countries including Thailand,Vietnam,and Singapore experience air pollution episodes during the months when agricultural and peat fires occur,while US and Canada also experience higher pollution levels during the wildfire season.Similarly in South Asia,Central Asia,and Eastern Europe,PM2.5 levels tend to be very high during the winter season,resulting in high exposures.Although short-term exposure spikes can affect health,it is long-term exposures that contribute most to the burden of disease and mortality from air pollution,and therefore are the focus of this report.However,there is a growing concern linked to health effects from such episodic exposures.Household Air Pollution Trends Measured by the percentage of the population that uses solid fuels for cooking,exposure to household air pollution(HAP)is most widespread in East,West,Central,and Southern Africa as well as in parts of Asia(Figure 3).Despite progress in the last few decades,47%(95%UI:46H%)of the worlds population almost 3.6 billion people are still exposed to pollution from household use of solid fuels for cooking.In 18 African countries,including Burundi,Mali,South Sudan,Niger,and Uganda,more than 95%of the population relies on solid fuels for cooking.In the last decade,Nigeria,Ethiopia,and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have experienced more than a 20%increase in exposure to household air pollution,in large part due to population growth.SOURCES OF PM2.5 To reduce the disease burden attributable to air pollution exposure,we need to understand air pollutions major sources,both now and in the future.This is the critical first step toward identifying the highest priority actions for air quality emissions control and the most cost-effective solutions to protect public health.10 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024FIGURE 4.Contribution of key sources of PM2.5 to total number of global deaths in 2020.(Source:HEI Research Report 210.)Visit the GBD-MAPS website to explore the data for your country or region.Progress in Air Quality Monitoring in Africa As of 2023,several countries in Africa had representative,reference-grade ground-based air quality monitoring stations in place.An important first step in understanding and improving exposure estimates over Africa is to expand ground-based monitoring networks across the continent.Some regional examples of progressive action toward enabling and expanding access to and availability of air quality data:-In West Africa,Senegal created the Center for Air Quality Management(CGQA)in 2009 and established a continuous air quality monitoring network of five monitors in Dakar,the capital city.Another monitor was added in 2017.CGQA also operates a reference laboratory.To increase the temporal and spatial resolution of data across Dakar,the center added low-cost sensor networks and a mobile laboratory with reference analyzers.Data are made publicly available,which strengthens its utility.In Southern Africa,since 2005 South Africas air quality management approach allows for multilevel governance:local authorities are charged with implementation of national regulations,with provincial and national authorities playing an oversight role.There are more than 130 fully automated air quality monitoring stations,which are managed mostly by metropolitan municipalities.Data are disseminated through the South African Air-Quality Information System(SAAQIS),a one-stop shop for information on air quality.SAAQIS was updated in 2017 to offer real-time air quality data,a mobile application,and ongoing collaboration with nongovernmental data providers to address wider community needs.-In East Africa,Rwanda launched its first integrated effort for long-term air quality monitoring at a national scale in 2017.The effort had two objectives:to enhance the understanding of local emissions and to build the capacity of local scientists in interpreting air quality data.Continuous air quality monitoring was initially conducted in two locations and has expanded to 23 stations in 2021.Data are publicly available through a website and mobile application.Rwandas approach to air quality monitoring involves(1)understanding ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants through a network of reference stations and low-cost sensors,and(2)investigating the composition of particulate matter using chemical speciation monitors to identify sources and inform mitigation measures.-In North Africa,Morocco developed the National Air Program,20182030,which aims to reduce pollution from stationary and mobile sources.In 2022,the network had 36 stations across the 12 regions in the country(including all major cities).The goal is to set up over 140 stations by 2030.-STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 11The sources responsible for PM2.5 pollution vary within and between countries and regions;significant contributors include residential fuel use,energy generation,industries,transportation,agriculture,windblown dust,waste combustion,and construction activities(Figure 4).Relative contributions of different sources to ambient PM2.5vary across the globe.For example,fossil fuel combustion is a large contributor to PM2.5 levels in countries such as Singapore and South Africa;windblown dust is a major source in many countries of Africa and the Middle East;and across South Asian countries,residential fuel combustion is the largest contributor to PM2.5.The contribution of different sources to the air pollution mixture is changing as some countries restrict activities or emissions to reduce air pollution,while others continue or increase their reliance on coal and other major contributors to air pollution.DIG DEEPERCurious about pollution in your city,country,or region?Track trends going back to 1990 at stateofglobalair.org.Find out how fossil fuels and other sources of PM2.5 contribute to air pollution in different areas of the world.Our interactive StoryMap reveals the roles of different sources and sectors.NITROGEN DIOXIDE Nitrogen dioxide(NO2)is a gaseous air pollutant that is mainly generated through the burning of fuel in vehicles,power plants,and industrial facilities.It belongs to a group of reactive gases known as nitrogen oxides and is often used as an indicator for this group and for the broader traffic-related air pollution mixture.Becausetraffic is a major source of NO2,its concentration is typically highest in urban areas and is considered a marker for the broader traffic-related air pollution mixture.In addition to traffic,agricultureis another important source of nitrogen oxides.For the GBD study,exposure to NO2 is defined as the population-weighted annual average concentration of NO2.The concentrations are measured in micrograms of particulate matter per cubic meter of air,or g/m3.High-income countries see some of the highest levels of NO2,a pollutant that is most common in cities.NO2 exposure has been linked to a variety of health effects,including asthma and other respiratory diseases.In addition,nitrogen oxides contribute to the formation of other pollutants,including ozone and secondary particulate matter.As a result,an increase in NO2 pollution can mean that these other forms of pollution and their associated health effects will get worse.NO2 reacts with other pollutants and dissipates more quickly compared with PM2.5.Therefore,NO2 levels can vary dramatically hour by hour and across different neighborhoods within a city.Pinpointing the traffic patterns and other factors that lead to spikes in NO2 pollution can help cities identify effective ways to control NO2 and reduce exposures.FIGURE 5.Global map of national population-weighted annual average NO2 concentrations in 2020.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.12 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024FIGURE 6.Trends in population-weighted annual average NO2 concentrations globally and in the GBD Super Regions,20102020.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.In contrast to PM2.5,some of the highest levels of NO2 pollution are seen in high-income countries.The highest exposures to NO2 are seen in North Africa and the Middle East(26.8 g/m3),high-income countries(26.6 g/m3),and in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia(26.1 g/m3)(Figure 5).55%of 194 countries do not yet meet the annual WHO AQG of 10 g/m3,resulting in 42%of the worlds population being exposed to NO2 levels above the annual guideline value.Seven of the ten countries with the highest NO2 exposures are in the Middle East including Bahrain,Qatar,Kuwait,Lebanon,and the United Arab Emirates.Russia and Turkey also experience high NO2 levels.Unlike PM2.5,the highest exposures to NO2 are seen in countries with a high socio-development index,or SDI.Examples include Singapore,Japan,and Canada,all of which experience high exposures to NO2.Thus,while the average NO2 exposure in countries with high SDI is 25.5 g/m3,the exposures are as low as 6.5 g/m3 in countries with low SDI.However,high-income countries are also experiencing a rapid decline in NO2 exposures over time as a result of sustained policy action and technological advancements(Figure 6).Expressed on a scale of 0 to 1,SDI combines rankings of(1)the income per capita,(2)average educational attainment(mean education for those ages 15 and older),and(3)fertility rates(number of births per woman)of all areas in the GBD study and is an indicator of where countries sit in the spectrum of development.OZONE Ground-level,or tropospheric,ozone is a pollutant that harms human health,damages plants,and contributes to climate change.Globally,ozone levels are estimated to be 30p%higher today than they were 100 years ago.This trend reflects rising emissions of the chemicals that form ozone as well as rising temperatures.Ozone is not released directly into the air but is formed through chemical interactions between nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in the presence of sunlight.The burning of fossil fuels in vehicles,power plants,factories,and homes and through industrial activities(such as oil and gas extraction and processing)produce precursor chemicals.Some VOCs also come from natural sources,such as trees.At the local level,ozone concentrations can vary widely from place to place.Although ozone is often more concentrated around urban areas where emissions of its precursor chemicals tend to be highest,it can also travel long distances to suburban and rural areas and across national borders.Ozone concentrations are measured in parts per billion(ppb).For the GBD study,exposure to ozone is defined as the population-weighted average 8-hour daily maximum concentration in the warmest six months of the year,which is the measure of exposure used in many epidemiological studies of ozones healtheffects and the annualWHO Air Quality Guidelines.Note that this ground-level ozone is different fromstratospheric ozone,which is known to be protective against ultraviolet radiation.Heat waves can worsen ozone pollution,threatening human health and crop yields.The climate penalty.The chemical reactions that form ozone increase when the air is warmer,resulting in higher ozone pollution during heatwaves.Studies have documented spikes in ozone pollution occurring around the same time as heatwaves in China and Europe.Ozone is also a greenhouse gas.Exposure to ozone is associated with an increased risk of both acute and chronic respiratory illnesses,such as COPD.Because of its effects on plants,ozone can also reduce crop yields and harm biodiversity,threatening food security and therefore nutrition for millions of people.For example,it is estimated that 16.8 million metric tons of wheat will be lost in Europe in 2050 as a result of ground-level ozone.Ozone Trends In 2020,ozone exposures varied from a low of about 11.4 ppb to a high of 67.6 ppb around the world,with a global average of 49.8 ppb(Figure 7).Countries with the highest average ozone exposures in 2020 were in the Middle East(Qatar,Bahrain,Kuwait,Saudi Arabia,and Iraq),South Asia(Nepal,India,Bangladesh,and Pakistan),and East Asia(Republic of Korea).Small tropical island states were among the countries with the lowest ozone exposures.Tracking progress:In 2020,93%of the worlds population lived in areas with peak-season ozone levels higher than the WHO AQG for peak-season ozone(60 g/m3 or 31 ppb).In addition,the proportion of the STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 13FIGURE 7.Global map of national population-weighted average seasonal 8-hour daily maximum ozone concentrations in 2020.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.population experiencing high ozone exposures is increasing in many regions of the world.For example,countries including India,Nigeria,Pakistan,and Brazil have experienced increases of more than 10%in ambient ozone exposures in the last decade(Figure 8).These trends reflect a combination of factors,including increased emissions of ozone precursors(such as nitrogen oxides,methane,and nonmethane VOCs)with industrialization andeconomic development,coupled with warmer temperatures.Also,exposures can be higher than national averages,especially in urban areas,particularly during warmer months.FIGURE 8.Trends in population-weighted average seasonal 8-hour maximum ozone concentration globally and in the GBD Super Regions,20102020.14 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.AIR POLLUTIONS BURDEN OF DISEASEExposure to air pollution is associated with impacts on every major organ system in humans.To inform actions that can save lives,it is critical to understand the risks faced by particular groups,the impacts of different pollutants,and the changes over time.Over many decades,scientific studies have documented a wide range of health effects from air pollution.While high-pollution days can have short-term effects,like aggravating asthma symptoms,and lead to temporary spikes in hospitalizations forheart or lung problems,the most severe impacts are caused by long-term exposures.Breathingpolluted air for months or years can lead to illness and early death from heart and lung diseases and diabetes as well as increase the likelihood of adverse birth outcomes,including preterm births,stillbirths,and miscarriages.New studies continue to broaden our understanding of air pollutions effects throughout the lifespan,but the bottom line is clear:air pollution exacts a devastating toll on health around the globe.Air pollution was the second leading risk factor for early death worldwide in 2021,surpassed only by high blood pressure.The GBD project relies on epidemiological studies and other evidence to estimate the burden of disease from air pollution in terms of deaths and the years of healthy life lost in every country of the globe(see Appendix).Ongoing studies continue to explore air pollutions role in the development of other diseases including tuberculosis,chronic kidney disease,and neurodegenerative diseases(e.g.,Alzheimers disease),not currently included in GBD estimates.The GBD study will continue to evaluate the changing evidence,and these diseases may be considered for inclusion in the GBD study in the future.FIGURE 9.Global ranking of risk factors by total number of deaths in 2021.Explore the rankings further via GBD Compare.THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF AIR POLLUTION Taken together,air pollution from PM2.5 and ozone was estimated to contribute to 8.1 million deaths 95%UI:6.79.5 about 12%of the total global deaths in 2021(Figure 9).In fact,PM2.5(both ambient and household together)is the largest contributor to the air pollution disease burden worldwide,accounting for 7.8 million deaths,or more than 90%of the total air pollution disease burden.Overall,2021 saw more deaths linked to air pollution than were estimated for any previous year,indicatingthe disease burden of air pollution has continuedto rise.Nearly 490,000(95%UI:107,000837,000)deaths were attributable to ozone.Countries in South Asia and East,West,Central,and Southern Africa experience the largest burden of disease linked to air pollution.With populations over 1 billion each,India(2.1 million deaths)and China(2.3 million deaths)together account for 54%of the total global disease burden.Other countries with high impacts include Pakistan(256,000 deaths),Myanmar(101,600 deaths),and Bangladesh(236,300 deaths)in South Asia;Indonesia(221,600 deaths),Vietnam(99,700 deaths),and the Philippines(98,209 deaths)in Southeast Asia;and Nigeria(206,700 deaths)and Egypt(116,500 deaths)in Africa.Age-standardized deaths are also high in many of the same countries and regions where total numbers of deaths are high.In the last two decades,most regions have experienced declines in the air pollution burden when looking at age-standardized death rates(Figure 10).In some cases,the total number of deaths continues to increase.The differences in these trends hint at competing factors that influence the burden of disease.Although the declines in age-Exposure to air pollution is linked to 1 in 8 deaths worldwide.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 15FIGURE 10.Percent change in age-standardized death rates in the GBD Super Regions,20002021.Note that while the percentage change in age-standardized death rate for household air pollution(HAP)was the highest in high-income countries,the overall magnitude of HAP-linked burden of disease is much smaller in those countries.FIGURE 11.Distribution of global deaths in 2021 attributable to ambient PM2.5,ozone,and household air pollution,by age.Much of the disease burden of air pollution falls on older populations because aging is a risk factor for noncommunicable diseases.-standardized rates can reflect improvements in the treatment of and survival from underlying diseases(e.g.,COPD,diabetes),the increase in the number of deaths reflects the important role of growth and aging in populations.The Youngest and Oldest Experience the Highest Impacts With respect to deaths,air pollution takes its greatest toll on people ages 50 and older(Figure 11),who suffer the highest burden from noncommunicable diseases related to air pollution,such as COPD,diabetes,stroke,and heart disease.When considering household air pollution,the burden also heavily impacts the youngest children,newborns,and children under five.For more,turn to the Air Pollution and Childrens Health section on page 11.DISEASE BURDEN OF PM2.5 PM2.5 air pollution is the largest driver of air pollutions burden of disease worldwide.Long-term exposure to PM2.5 pollution is associated with illness and early death from diseases,including heart disease,lung cancer,COPD,stroke,type 2 diabetes,lower respiratory infections(such as pneumonia),and adverse birth outcomes.It is estimated that ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution(i.e.,household PM2.5)together contributed to 7.8 million deaths globally in 2021,with ambient PM2.5 accounting for 4.7 million 95%UI:3.55.8 deaths and household air pollution accounting for 3.1 million 95%UI:1.95.2.Of all the deaths attributable to ambient PM2.5 in 2021,heart-disease-related deaths were linked to 19%of the total deaths,1.5 million.The disease burden linked to ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution varies widely around the globe.This variation reflects different patterns of pollution exposure as well as differences in age demographics and underlying healthfactors.Overall,the regions that bear the highest burden from ambient PM2.5 include Southeast Asia,East Asia,and Oceania(91.4 deaths/100,000 people);South Asia(85.1/100,000);and North Africa and the Middle East(103/100,000)(Figure 12).In the above cases,rates are almost two times higher than global averages for ambient PM2.5 exposure(57.6/100,000).The age-standardizeddeath rate that is,the number of deaths per 100,00 people is a useful metric for comparing the burden of disease attributable to a particular risk factor across countries or regions because it factors in population age structure and size.DIG DEEPERFor more on the short-andlong-term health effects of air pollution,who is affected,and what the science shows,see our factsheet on Air Pollution and Your Health.16 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024FIGURE 12.Global map of age-standardized rates of death attributable to(a)ambient and(b)household air pollution in 2021.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.(b)Household PM2.5(a)Ambient PM2.5In 2021,particulate matter air pollution(i.e.,ambient and household PM2.5)was the leading contributor to total DALYs followed by high blood pressure,smoking,low birth weight,and short gestation.Over the past decade,the global disease burden linked to ambient PM2.5 has increased.This reflects a greater impact on aging populations and increased global exposure than decreases in disease rates for those affected by PM2.5.Overall,changes in population size and age structure have the largest impacts on these trends.Even if exposures to air pollution are decreasing,the overall attributable burden of disease can increase if a population is growing faster than exposures are falling.Similarly,a population that is aging will likely face a higher burden of disease because older people develop,and are more susceptible to,diseases linked with air pollution.In the case of household air pollution,South Asia and East,West,and Southern Africa experience age-standardized death rates(respectively 109 deaths/100,000 and 130 deaths/100,000)almost double the global average(39.4 deaths/100,000)(Figure 13).For household air pollution exposures,another disease contributing to the health impacts is cataracts.In 2021,cataracts from exposure to STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 17household PM2.5 resulted in 1.9 million years lived with disability(YLD),affecting both productivity and quality of life.Cataracts are among the major causes of vision loss,and several studies in LMICs have linked exposure to household air pollution with cataracts.The reduction in death rate from household air pollution has happened in part due to efforts to expand access to clean energy for cooking,including advancements in providing residents with grid electricity,cleaner-burning cookstoves,and cleaner fuels(such as liquified petroleum gas)under the UN Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)target 7.1.2(ensure access to clean energy in homes).The reduction in deaths can also be credited to improvements in nutrition and access to healthcare,including vaccination and treatment.Despite notable progress,access to clean energy remains limited in South Asia and parts of Africa,where hundreds of millions of people still rely on solid fuels for cooking and heating.The still large burden of disease also underscores the continuing importance of household air pollution not only among environmental risk factors,but also compared with diet,lifestyle,and other modifiable factors that influence health.Since 2000,there has been a 61%reduction in the age-standardized death rate from household air pollution.DISEASE BURDEN OF NITROGEN DIOXIDE There is a large and growing body of scientific evidence linking NO2 pollution with a variety of health effects.Short-term exposure to NO2 can irritate the airways and aggravate existing respiratory diseases.For people with asthma,NO2 exposure is associated with more frequent and severe asthma symptoms and a greater risk of hospitalization.Studies also have suggested that exposure to NO2 pollution can impair lung development,intensify allergies,and make people more susceptible to respiratory infections,and several large studies indicate that children exposed to NO2 pollution are at a greater risk of developing asthma.In the GBD,NO2 is linked to the development of childhood asthma.In 2021,exposure to NO2 was linked to 177,000 DALYs,or 177,000 healthy years of life lost for children and adolescents.For more,turn to the Air Pollution and Childrens Health section on page 21.FIGURE 13.Trends in age-standardized deaths/100,000 rate attributable to household air pollution in the GBD Super Regions.46%of the deaths linked to household air pollution were in South Asia,26%were in South-east and East Asia and Oceania,and 24%were in East,West,Central,and Southern Africa.COVID-19 and Air Pollution:Four Years Later,What Do We Know?Decades of research have linked air pollution exposure with an increased risk of respiratory infections.As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed,early studies on air pollution and COVID-19(a respiratory virus)suggested potential associations;however,the nature of the global pandemic introduced many biases and issues with the initial wave of published research.Now,four years later,a growing body of research has shown that exposure to air pollution can contribute to the risk of infection,to having more severe outcomes,and also to increased risk of death due to COVID-19.Newly published studies also have suggested that exposure to NO2 or PM2.5 is associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 incidence among people with lower socioeconomic status compared to others.Researchers around the world continue to study the lasting impacts of COVID-19.One area of interest continues to be in the susceptibility factors to COVID-19,specifically in population-level exposure to air pollution.-How Does Air Pollution Worsen COVID-19 Outcomes?Exposure to air pollution decreased the immunes systems ability to fight off infection leading to the easier penetration of respiratory viruses in humans.Air pollution causes inflammation and oxidative stress in lungs.By weakening the respiratory system,air pollution could increase the severity of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.Air pollutions impact on the cardiovascular and metabolic system can worsen the course and outcome of COVID-19 patients.18 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024While NO2 may not be the main or only driver of these health effects,it is considered to be a good proxy for exposure to traffic-related air pollution in urban settings.A recent comprehensive review from the Health Effects Institute expressed a high level of confidence that strong connections exist between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and early death due to cardiovascular diseases.A strong link was also found between traffic-related air pollution and deaths from lung cancer,asthma onset in children and adults,and acute,lower respiratory tract infections(LRIs)in children.DISEASE BURDEN OF OZONE Short-term exposure to ozone is linked to asthma exacerbation and other respiratory problems.Long-term exposure to ground-level ozone is linked with the development of COPD in adults,a progressive and debilitating disease that makes breathing harder;COPD is a major global cause of death and disability.In 2021,long-term exposure to ozone contributed to an estimated 490,000 deaths(95%UI:107,200837,000)from COPD worldwide,accounting for 13%(95%UI:2.9%)of all COPD deaths globally.This loss of life equates to 8.7 million 13%of all COPD deaths globally.This loss of life equates to 8.7 million DALYs from COPD across the world.In 2021,nearly 50%of all ozone-related COPD deaths were in India(237,000 deaths)followed by China(125,600 deaths)and Bangladesh(15,000 deaths).Notably,the United States partly due to its sizable population,widespread ozone pollution,and relatively high rates of COPD saw 14,000 deaths in 2021,more than any other high-income country.Since 2010,the overall number of ozone-linked COPD deaths has increased by nearly 20%,and a similar pattern is seen for DALYs;as populations get older,the overall number of COPD deaths rises.Global patterns of ozone-attributable deaths generally mirror the global patterns of population-weighted seasonal ozone concentrations around the world(Figure 14).The disease burden attributable to ozone varies widely as a result of regional differences in ozone exposures,as well as underlying health and population characteristics.There are also important regional differences.South Asia and East,West,Central,and Southern Africa have seen an increase in the disease burden of ozone exposure in the last decade,while the burden has remained steady or decreased slightly in other regions(Figure 15).Jakarta,Indonesia Aji Styawan/Climate VisualsAccess to Clean Energy for All Can Create Cleaner Air for AllA lack of access to clean energy for cooking and heating can hinder economic growth and development,underscoring the need to scale up energy production as well as energy access in countries across Africa and Asia.In fact,countries in Africa have some of the lowest energy access rates in the world,with fewer than one in 20 people who live in the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Ethiopia,Madagascar,Mozambique,Niger,Uganda,and Tanzania having access to clean fuels for cooking.The solution to addressing household air pollution is simple and its impact is clear:improving access to clean cooking improves health.Furthermore,reducing the use of solid fuels for cooking can help reduce short-lived climate pollutants.Woman in Karachi,Pakistan cooking food on open fire UNICEF/JunaidAnnounced on the sidelines of the 28th Conference of the Parties(COP28)in 2023,the Africa Clean Cooking Consortium a partnership between the African Development Bank,International Energy Agency,and Clean Cooking Alliance is one among many examples of efforts underway to achieve the goal of universal access to clean cooking.Organizations including the WHO also have created tools to support countries in planning and implementing clean energy solutions.One such example is the Clean Household Energy Solutions Toolkit(CHEST),which provides tools that countries and programs can use to develop policy action plans for expanding clean household energy access and use.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 19FIGURE 14.Global map of age-standardized rates of death attributable to ozone in 2021.Nearly 50%of the total ozone-related deaths occurred in India.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.FIGURE 15.Trends in death rate(deaths/100,000)attributable to ozone in the GBD Super Regions in 2021.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.Children playing in smog,South Africa Gulshan Khan/Climate Visuals THE STATE OF AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH IMPACTS IN AFRICA 21 A REPORT FROM THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR INITIA-TIVE WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 21WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.AIR POLLUTION AND CHILDRENS HEALTHChildren are the future;yet early exposure to air pollution poses a major threat to the well-being of children around the world.Air pollution was the second leading risk factor for death among children under five in 2021,after malnutrition(Figure 16).The message from this is clear:Addressing air pollution is an essential step if we are to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of substantially reducing under-5 mortality.More than 700,000 deaths in children under 5 years of age were from diseases linked to air pollution in 2021.Of this,over 500,000 deaths were linked to exposure to household air pollution.There is a long way to go.In 2021,a total of 709,000(95%UI:539,400899,300)deaths in children under five were linked to air pollution;this represents 15%of all global deaths in children under five.Of these,most(507,500 95%UI:365,700694,400)were linked to household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels,and 201,000 were linked to ambient PM2.5(95%UI:112,700309,300).Among children 514 years of age,air pollution was linked to 16,600 deaths(95%UI:2,40027,600).FIGURE 16.Global ranking of risk factors by total number of deaths among children under 5 in 2021.Explore the rankings further via GBD Compare.Why Are Children Uniquely Susceptible to the Effects of Air Pollution?Childrens susceptibility to air pollution begins before birth.Some pollutants can cross the placenta,resulting in fetuss exposure to air pollution.After birth,children face special risks from air pollution for two main reasons:first,they often take in more polluted air than adults,and second,the polluted air affects their health in different ways because their bodies are still developing.Children breathe at a faster rate,often by mouth,which means they inhale more air than adults per kilogram of body weight.Another reason is that they often spend more time outdoors and breathe air that is closer to the ground,which puts them in closer proximity to sources of pollution like dust and vehicle exhaust.In many countries,infants and toddlers also have high exposure to household air pollution,often because caregivers must simultaneously care for children and cook family meals.Pollution also affects childrens bodies differently than it affects adults.Childrens lungs,brains,and other organs are immature,and their immune systems are still developing;this means that their bodies are not equipped with the same defense mechanisms as adults.Breathing even the same amount of pollution can result in worse impacts in children because children have smaller airway passages;thus,inflammation due to air pollutants creates proportionally more airway blockage than in adults.In addition,pollution can interfere with a childs growth and development,leading to lifelong impacts.For example,exposures from the prenatal period through the toddler years can make a child more likely to develop cancer and other infectious and noncommunicable diseases later in life.Childrens lungs also develop through adolescence,meaning that any impacts on lung growth because of air pollution can have lifelong consequences.Due to a combination of exposure patterns and health vulnerabilities,many of air pollutions harmful effects are amplified in children who live in communities that are socially or economically disadvantaged.Playground near a power plant in Polandz/Climate VisualswicAnna LiminoIMPACTS ON NEONATAL HEALTHBeing exposed to air pollution in the womb increases the likelihood that a baby will be born too small(low birth weight)or too early(preterm birth).These conditions,in turn,make babies more susceptible to lower respiratory and other serious infections,STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 2122 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024diarrheal diseases,brain damage and inflammation,blood disorders,and jaundice.If the babies survive infancy,they remain at a higher risk for LRIs,other infectious diseases,and major chronic diseases throughout life.Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy has also been linked to miscarriage,stillbirths,and congenital disorders and anomalies.The biological mechanisms linking air pollution exposure with these adverse birth outcomes are not fully understood,though the relationship is thought to involve pathways similar to those of tobacco smoking.One plausible mechanism is that some pollutants,like carbon monoxide,may move across the membranes of the lungs and be carried to other parts of the body,affecting development of the placenta and the fetus.Another is that pollutants may initiate systemic inflammation or oxidative stress that affects the health of both the pregnant woman and her baby.Preterm birth is the leading cause of death among children under five.Countries with with low SDI experience the highest rates of low birth weight and preterm birth.Air pollution likely plays a role in this,along with other factors such as malnutrition,low immunization coverage,other health problems,and other environmental exposures.The GBD study estimates the impact of exposure to ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution on infants health and survival in their first month of life(ages 0 to 27 days).In 2021,572,000 neonatal deaths(95%UI:480,000681,000)were linked to air pollution,representing 26%of the total newborn deaths.72%of this burden was due to exposure to household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels.The highest impacts were seen in countries in Asia and Africa,where millions of households continue to rely on polluting energy sources for cooking(Figure 18).Both in South Asia and East,West,Central,and Southern Africa,30%of all deaths in the first month after birth are linked to exposure to air pollution.Since 2000,there have been improvements:death rates in newborns linked to household air pollution decreased by 46%,while death rates linked to ambient PM2.5 decreased by 14%.In 2021,34%of the preterm births were linked to exposure to air pollution,resulting in more than 20 million years of healthy life lost with the largest impacts in South Asia(35%of preterm births linked to air pollution)and East,West,Central and Southern Africa(39.4%).IMPACTS IN CHILDREN UNDER FIVE Breathing polluted air early in life can have both immediate and long-term implications for a childs health.Air pollution affects childrens health through its role in pneumonia and other respiratory infections and allergic diseases.In fact,LRIs are the leading cause of death for children under five.Exposure to air pollution can make a person more susceptible to infections in the lungs by causing inflammation and weakening the bodys defenses against viruses and bacteria.Household air pollution is an important risk factor for pneumonia.Such infections during childhood can also result in long-term health effects,including impaired lung growth and a higher risk for chronic diseases later in life.Similar to impacts in newborns,deaths from LRIs attributed to air pollution are the highest in countries in Africa and Asia(Figure 19).At the country level,the highest death rates from LRIs were seen in Chad(159 deaths/100,000 people),South Sudan(129 deaths/100,000 people),Central African Republic(128 deaths/100,000 people),Nigeria(109 deaths/100,000 people),Niger(108 deaths/100,000 people),Burkina Faso(108 deaths/100,000 people),and Papua New Guinea(107 deaths/100,000 people).In several countries in Africa(e.g.,Niger,Rwanda,Malawi,Senegal,Ethiopia,Uganda,and Mozambique)and in Asia(e.g.,Afghanistan,Bangladesh,and India),more than 40%of all deaths from LRIs in children under five are attributed to air pollution.The silver lining of these staggering numbers is that the global burden of disease for children under five attributable to air pollution has dropped steadily in the last few decades;since 2000,the death rate linked to air pollution in children under five has decreased by 53%.Efforts to improve access to cleaner energy sources and reduce the reliance on burning solid fuels for cooking and heating both in homes generally and in childcare and school settings specifically have reduced childrens exposure to household air pollution and likely contributed to falling rates of childhood mortality in some places.To put this in context,since 2000,some of the largest reductions in disease burden were seen in the disease burden linked to unsafe water,sanitation,and handwashing(72%reduction in death rates since 2000),with significant implications for childrens health.FIGURE 18.Relative(percentage)contribution of ambient and household air pollution to deaths in newborns in 2021.The number of newborn deaths linked to PM2.5 exposure in high-income countries is much lower than deaths in low-and middle-income countries.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 23FIGURE 19.Global map of lower respiratory infection(LRI)death rates linked to air pollution for children under five in 2021.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.In some countries in Africa and Asia,nearly 1 in every 3 lower respiratory infection deaths in children under 5 is linked to air pollution.Despite this progress,however,pollutionrelated deaths among children under five have remained high in some regions,particularly in South Asia and East,West,Central,and Southern Africa(Figure 17).In 2021,India(169,400 deaths),Nigeria(114,100 deaths),Pakistan(68,100 deaths),Ethiopia(31,100 deaths),and Bangladesh(19,100 deaths)saw the largest numbers of air pollutionrelated deaths among these children.-FIGURE 17.Death rate(number of deaths per 100,000)in children under 5 linked to air pollution across GBD Super Regions in 2021.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.AIR POLLUTION AND CHILDHOOD ASTHMA Some of the most well-studied impacts of pollution exposure in young children relate to asthma,the most common chronic respiratory disease in children.People with asthma suffer symptoms such as wheezing,trouble breathing,chest tightness,and cough,sometimes in acute episodes or as“asthma attacks,”which can be life-threatening.Air pollutions impacts in terms of quality of life,medication costs,loss of school days,and frequent hospital visits impose substantial social and economic burdens on children,their families,and health systems.In this context,it is important to note that asthma prevalence is not studied in nearly half of the countries,and in many LMICs,asthma diagnosis and treatment are not yet common.In children who have an asthma diagnosis,there is strong evidence that breathing polluted air can worsen the symptoms and trigger asthma attacks.In addition,a growing body of research suggests that being exposed to air pollution particularly traffic-relatedair pollution can increase a childs chance of developing asthma in the first place.NO2 is the air pollutant most consistently related to asthma incidence in children,who often suffer years of poor health as a result.All data reported here consider years lived in disability,that is,less than perfect health,in in 2021.For context,one YLD represents the equivalent of one full year of healthy life lost due to poor health.In the case of asthma,global data suggest that the prevalence as well as severity 24 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024of disease is often the highest among adolescents.In 2021,asthma linked to traffic-related air pollution exposure resulted in 42,300 years lived in disability(YLD)in children under five years,105,300 YLDs in children between 514 years,and 29,100 YLDs in adolescents between 1519 years.Overall,3.9%of the asthma YLDs were attributed to exposure to NO2 globally in children between 514 years.The data are in line with estimates from the Global Asthma Report 2022,which reported highest rates of disease prevalence in adolescents,followed by children and adults.FIGURE 20.Death rates linked to lower respiratory tract infections attributable to air pollution exposure in 2000 and 2021 in children under five years in the GBD Super Regions.Rates among children 514 and adolescents 1519 are much lower in comparison.Air pollutionlinked asthma has the highest health impacts on children between 514 years of age,especially in high-income countries.YLD rates are the highest in high-income countries(21.5 deaths/100,000),followed by countries in Latin America and Caribbean(15.3 deaths/100,000)and North Africa and Middle East (10.6 deaths/100,000)(Figure 21).Broadly,the trends seen for asthma burden mirror the trends for NO2 exposures(see page 12).In Lebanon,nearly a quarter(24%)of all asthma-related YLDs in children between 514 years are attributed to NO2 exposure;other countries where airpollution contributes to more than 10%of the asthma YLDs include Qatar(14.8%),Bahrain(14.7%),Singapore(13.6%),Kuwait(12.4%),Republic of Korea(11.7%),and United Arab Emirates(10.4%).Note that asthma is more likely to be recognized and diagnosed in high-income countries.Since 2000,asthmas burden has declined in most regions,including in HICs,Latin America,and the Caribbean.In South Asia and East,West,Central,and Southern Africa,there has been an increase in asthma YLDs linked to air pollution.In each of the regions with decreases in NO2-attributable asthma burden,a key contributor has been a decrease in NO2 exposures over time.In both Africa and Asia regions experiencing rapid population growth and urbanization the overall burden is much lower compared to other parts of the world;the increase in asthma YLDs indicates a need for urgent action.GOOD NEWS!Across the world,the disease burden of LRIs and LRI deaths attributed to air pollution has declined considerably since 2000(Figure 20).Improved healthcare delivery systems,water,sanitation,and hygiene(WASH)services,nutrition,education,and child protection have contributed to the decrease in disease burden and deaths attributable to air pollution in children.ta EstateoberElla ROn February 15,2013,nine-year-old Ella Kissi-Debrah died of a fatal asthma attack in London,UK.She is the first person in the world to have air pollution listed as part of the cause of death on her death certificate.Learn more about Ellas story.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 25FIGURE 21.Global rates of asthma YLD linked to NO2 exposure for children between 5 and 14 years of age in 2021.Health Benefits of Access to and Use of Clean Energy to Children in Asia and Africa In many low-and middle-income countries,a significant proportion of the disease burden among children is linked to household air pollution,reflecting a lack of access to clean energy.A transition to clean energy sources could address climate challenges and improve air quality and health.However,experiences from countries such as China show that major improvements in access to and use of clean energy will only be possible through sustained government action.Actions to improve access to and use of clean fuels can help achieve these UN Sustainable Development Goals:goal 3,“Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”;goal 7,“Ensure access to affordable,reliable,sustainable,and modern energy for all”;and goal 13,“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.”There are some examples where information on the health effects of exposure to household air pollution is being actively communicated to the public,including the significant impacts of exposure during pregnancy on newborns.In Kenya,for instance,the Facilitators Guide on Household Air Pollution for Community Health Volunteers,launched in 2021,provides detailed information on household air pollution,its effects on health,and strategies to reduce exposures.In other instances,efforts are being made to reduce exposure to air pollution.In Nepal,UNICEF partnered with local governments in six remote municipalities to distribute cleaner eco-cookstoves among more than 9,800 households to improve maternal and child health,and to reduce deforestation.More.UNICEF MongoliaIn Mongolia,UNICEF worked with government partners to install and run a network of low-cost sensors in schools.Availability of air quality data eventually led to the development and installation of new air ventilation systems that are now being piloted in six kindergartens and three healthcare facilities.More.26 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024Recent research suggests exposure to air pollution starting at the prenatal stage can impair brain development and increase a childs risk of autism spectrum disorder,as well as long-term intellectual disabilities,including problems with cognition and attention.There is also some evidence that air pollution may increase the risk of childhood cancers.Exposure to Secondhand SmokeAnother exposure that has been found to be harmful to children is secondhand smoke,defined as the involuntary exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke from the smoking of others.There is no safe level of exposure to secondhand smoke,and children are particularly at risk.Studies have shown that exposure to secondhand smoke can lead to several damaging health effects in children,such as respiratory infections,including pneumonia,ear infections,and exacerbation of asthma.Repeated exposures to secondhand smoke have also been linked to increased risk of hospitalization among children.Also,exposure to secondhand smoke during childhood can result in a higher risk for cardiovascular diseases later in life.In 2021,secondhand smoke was ranked as the eighth largest risk factor for deaths in children children under five and resulted in 39,000 deaths.Detailed data on the impacts of secondhand smoke are available via GBD Compare.DIG DEEPERWatch this short video to learn more about the impacts of air pollution on neonatal health.Meet Amari,Henri,and other children around the world who are affected by air pollution.Watch our video Cleaner Air,Healthier Children.Explore childrens environmental health profiles at the UNICEF Childrens Environmental Health Collaborative website.Learn more about childrens environmental health through this course developed by UNICEF and WHO.Gulshan Khan/Climate VisualsResident of the Vosman area of Witbank,Emalahleni,South Africa THE STATE OF AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH IMPACTS IN AFRICA 27 A REPORT FROM THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR INITIA-TIVE WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 27WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.THE RISING THREAT OF NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASES Noncommunicable diseases(NCDs)those that that do not pass from person to person and that are often chronic,lasting for years include some of the major causes of death and disability,such as cardiovascular(heart)diseases,cancer,diabetes,and chronic respiratory(lung)diseases.Over the last few decades,illnesses and deaths from NCDs have been on the rise.In 2021,ischemic heart disease,stroke,and COPD were among the five leading causes of death around the world.Air pollution is a major cause of the high burden of these chronic NCDs together with diet,lack of physical activity,and use of tobacco and alcohol.Furthermore,those living with chronic diseases can be more susceptible to adverse effects of air pollution.In 2018,the UN High-Level Meeting on Noncommunicable Diseases added air pollution as one of the five most important risk factors for the most prominent NCDs.Subsequently,the inclusion of air pollution as a risk factor in the NCD framework was also adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2019.NCDs,such as heart disease,lung cancer,and chronic lung diseases(COPD),account for nearly 90%of the total disease burden of air pollution and predominantly affect people in older age groups.The remaining 10%is related to factors that mostly affect young children,including respiratory infections and adverse birth outcomes(see Children Under 5 health section).As shown in Figure 22,air pollution accounts for 48%of global deaths from COPD,28%of deaths from IHD,27%of deaths from stroke,19%of deaths from lung cancer,and 18%of deaths from type 2 diabetes.The air pollutionattributable burden from these diseases is not borne equally across the world.For example,while the contribution of air pollution to IHD is 28%on average globally;the contribution ranges from less than 10%in HICs such as Finland,Norway,Australia,and Canada to more than 40%in countries in East,West,Central,and Southern Africa and South Asia(such as Nigeria,Kenya,Rwanda,and Bangladesh).Note that the disease burden of air pollution depends on multiple factors,including the level and types of exposures in a given place along with the age distribution and underlying health of the people who live there.Noncommunicable diseases account for nearly 90%of the total disease burden of air pollution.In addition to the impacts on individuals and families when a person dies early,at the population level the growing number of people living with these chronic diseases can lead to loss of productivity,high healthcare costs,and overburdened healthcare systems.According to an estimate from the World Bank,health impacts of air pollution cost US$4.4 trillion annually,5.1%of the global GDP in 2019.Did you know that outdoor air pollution is considered carcinogenic(capable of causing cancer)?Exposure to air pollution was estimated to account for nearly 1 in 5 deaths from lung cancer in 2021.Climate change can exacerbate the health burden of NCDs.For example,the number of deaths related to heart and lung diseases has been found to increase during heatwaves,which are becoming more common as the planet warms.Although this trend is alarming,the flip side is that by reducing air pollution we can achieve health gains,simultaneously helping to slow climate change,prevent pollution-related illnesses,and curb the interactions that exacerbate the impacts of both.Lifestyle factors such as diet,alcohol,smoking,and physical activity are key risk factors for many NCDs;individuals and families can adopt habits to reduce the risk of disease.However,individuals and especially children often have little control over how much pollution they breathe.The growing evidence of air pollutions role in NCDs has brought attention to the need for more public health action at the societal level.For example,the European Union has included reducing environmental pollution as an important part of its Beating Cancer Plan.Recognizing the importance of air pollution in NCDs,eight mayors from the Partnership for Healthy Cities are focusing their efforts on improving air quality monitoring and use data to inform public health action.FIGURE 22.Percentage of global deaths from specific causes attributable to total air pollution in 2021.Visit stateofglobalair.org to explore the data for your country or region.28 STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024DIG DEEPERCurious about the impact of air pollution on the NCD disease burden in your country?Explore data for your country at stateofglobalair.org.Listen to Dr.Michelle Turner and Dr.Arvind Kumar talk about air pollution and lung health,including the association between air pollution and lung cancer.Kampala,Uganda antPallavi P THE STATE OF AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH IMPACTS IN AFRICA 29 A REPORT FROM THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR INITIA-TIVE WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.WHAT IS THE STATE OF GLOBAL AIR?The State of Global Air report and interactive web-site bring into one place a comprehensive analysis of the levels and trends in air quality and health for every country in the world.They are produced annually by the Health Effects Institute and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations(IHMEs)Global Burden of Disease(GBD)project and are a source of objective,high-quality,and comparable air quality data and information.CONTENTSIntroduction .3Exposure to Air Pollution .5Burden of Disease from Air Pollution .15 New Air Pollutions Youngest Victims .23Conclusions .25Key Resources .26Contributors and Funding .28WHO IS IT FOR?The report and website are designed to give citizens,journalists,policy makers,and scientists access to reliable,meaningful information about air pollution exposure and its health effects.These resources are free and available to the public.HOW CAN I EXPLORE THE DATA?This report has a companion interactive website with tools to explore,compare,and download data and graphics reflecting the latest air pollution levels and associated burden of disease.Anyone can use the website to access data for over 200 individual countries,territories,and regions,as well as track trends from 1990 to 2019.Find it at stateofglobalair.org.Data and figures from this publication may be used for non-commercial purposes.Contents of this report may not be used for any commercial purposes without prior permission from the Health Effects Institute.STATE OF GLOBAL AIR 2024 29CONCLUSIONS Air pollution poses an enormous and growing public health challenge.It is now the second leading risk factor for early death worldwide,surpassed only by high blood pressure.Air pollution also outranks tobacco as a leading cause of death and disability.Numbers give us a sense of the scale of the problem:99%of the worlds population is exposed to harmful levels of PM2.5;air pollution contributed to 8.1 million deaths in 2021 alone,more than 90%of which are linked to noncommunicable diseases;more than 700,000 deaths in children under five were from causes related to household and outdoor air pollution in a single year.Yet even these staggering statistics fail to fully capture the true human toll of each life that is lost too early,the huma
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