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Fashion IndustryOutlook2024-25Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.Table OfContentsCopyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.IntroductionVertical Integration Consolidation Sustainability Regulations Geographic Dispersion Automation Fiscal Agility Mass Customization Transparency&Traceability Digital Transformation Generative AI Key Takeaways About WFX 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.14.TitlePage No.https:/www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/01/09/global-economic-prospects-january-2024-press-releaseLinear supply chains and conventional manufacturing methods are no longer the dominant business model for the fashion industry.Things are changing fast.Robots are becoming the new seamstresses.Sustainability is at the center of everything.Waste is now a raw material.And data?Its the new fashion muse.This is the fashion terrain of 2024.The challenges and opportunities for fashion businesses are not just about keeping pace with these advancements,they also include navigating the complex geopolitical landscape and responding to higher borrowing costs,changes in global trade policies and labor laws.This dynamic environment,marked by elections in several key supplier and consumer markets as well as the geopolitical shifts that come with it,will demand higher adaptability and foresight in 2024.As we stand on the brink of 2024-25,you will indefinitely find yourself grappling with the accelerated pace of technological change,the pressing demands for sustainability,and the shifting sands of consumer preferences.The pressure from brands for quicker turnarounds or increasing calls for transparencyare not exceptions but the norm.All this while the global economy is on track for the worst half-decade of growth in 30 years,according to the World Bank projections for the year 2024.Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.IntroductionYour business response to these market shifts wont just determine your relevance;it will decide your survival.With this reality at our doorstep,lets take a closer look at the industry trends that are shaping our industry and how fashion businesses of all types and sizes can and will adapt their business to thrive in this new era of fashion.Whats on the 2024 Mood Board?1Increasing Geopolitical ComplexityHigher Borrowing Costs Global Trade Policy Changes Elections in Key Markets Faster Trend CyclesAutomation&AI Takeover New Sustainability Regulations Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.1.Vertical IntegrationExploring New Frontiers2The current climate of the fashion industry has pushed manufacturers to adopt vertical integration as a vital strategy for growth and survival.This trend sees garment manufacturers expanding into realms traditionally outside their purview such as textile production,knitting,and dyeing.The core motivation behind this shift is clear:to meet the increasingly demanding timelines set by buyers.When you own more stages of the supply chain,you can exert greater control over production processes and significantly cut down on lead times.This integration also allows you to respond more agilely to market changes and customer demands.However,this move requires significant capital investment and a rethinking of traditional business models.For many,it could mean venturing into unfamiliar territory,necessitating new expertise and potentially reshaping your workforce.Yet,the potential benefitsimproved efficiency,better quality control,and increased competitivenessmake this a trend hard to ignore.Businesses who can successfully navigate this shift could find themselves at a significant advantage,able to offer faster,more responsive service to clients.https:/ by way of mergers,acquisitions and so on will be another big thing for the apparel supply chain in 2024-25.Several big firms,in their quest for efficiency and reliability,are increasingly narrowing their supplier base.This shift towards working with fewer but larger full-service suppliers will reshape the competitive landscape.For high-performing manufacturers,particularly those who score well on buyer scorecards,this trend presents significant growth opportunities.However,for smaller companies,the low growth,high cost,and low margins era will pose serious challenges.Such businesses would need to develop strategic partnerships to survive.Everyone from retailers to manufacturers will be looking for economies of scale to help counteract rising operating costs.As some entities struggle to compete,the ability to deliver quickly and reliably will become key.In such as environment,those who can adaptby scaling up operations,investing in technology,or finding niche marketsmay be the ones to thrive.However,the message is clear:agility and digital savviness are not just desirable attributes but essential for survival.Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.2.ConsolidationSurvival of the Fittest3https:/fnance.ec.europa.eu/capital-markets-union-and-fnancial-markets/company-reporting-and-auditing/company-reporting/corporate-sustainability-reporting_en?https:/fnance.ec.europa.eu/capital-markets-union-and-fnancial-markets/company-reporting-and-auditing/company-reporting/corporate-sustainability-reporting_en?https:/environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/waste-and-recycling/waste-framework-directive_en?https:/environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/waste-and-recycling/waste-framework-directive_en?https:/www.thefashionact.org/?https:/www.thefashionact.org/?We all know that sustainability is no longer a buzzword.Legislation is coming for fashion supply chains.Its a regulatory and ethical imperative.Europes Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive,the Waste Framework Directive,Ecodesign Criteria for Consumer Textiles and New York State Fashion Sustainability and Social Accountability Act are just a couple from the top of our heads.Driven by stringent regulations in the EU,the UK,and beyond,manufacturers are being compelled to adopt more sustainable practices.These regulations are not just about environmental protection but also encompass fair labor practices and ethical sourcing.The challenge for the industry is twofold:to adapt manufacturing processes to be more eco-friendly whilst ensuring transparency and ethical practices across the supply chain.Meeting these demands requires significant effort and investment.It might mean overhauling your existing production methods,sourcing new,sustainable materials,or investing in technologies that reduce environmental impact.The shift also demands a new level of transparency,with brands increasingly expected to provide proof of sustainability at every stage of the supply chain.Despite these challenges,the road to sustainability is also paved with opportunities such as catering to a growing segment of consumers who prioritize sustainability,opening of new markets and possibilities for brand differentiation.Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.3.SustainabilityA Regulatory and Ethical Imperative4Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.4.Geographic DispersionNew Manufacturing Hubs&Globalized Retail The global fashion manufacturing map is changing.Manufacturers,especially from traditional hubs like India,are expanding their operations into new regions such as Africa,Middle East,Turkey and Latin America.This move is motivated by the desire to break free from traditional geographical constraints and tap into new advantages such as competitive labor costs,access to raw materials,and be closer to the consumer markets in regions like Europe,UK and the Americas.This geographic expansion is also a strategic response to the supply chain disruptions experienced during the pandemic and ongoing geopolitical tensions.By diversifying their manufacturing bases,fashion brands aim to reduce their dependency on traditional hubs.This shift towards nearshoring and reshoring is expected to contribute to more resilient supply chains and potentially faster turnaround times for the industry.Effective management of these geographically dispersed operations is crucial.This necessitates robust cloud platforms that can handle complex logistics and supply chain management across diverse locations.As brands navigate these changes,the ability to swiftly adapt to new manufacturing landscapes while maintaining efficiency and quality will be key to their success in the global fashion market.5Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.5.AutomationThe New WorkforceAutomation represents a seismic shift in garment manufacturing,with robots and AI-powered machines increasingly taking over tasks like cutting,sewing,and finishing.This trend is driven by the need to improve efficiency,accuracy,and consistency,while also reducing labor costs.For many businesses,automation offers a path to higher productivity and competitiveness to meet the demands of a fast-moving market more effectively.However,the move towards automation also raises important questions about the future of our workforce.As machines take on more tasks traditionally performed by humans,how will the role of skilled labor evolve in this future?This shift necessitates a rethinking of workforce strategy,with a growing need to reskill and upskill everyone from the designers and technical teams to factory workers and manager so that they can work alongside these new technologies while leveraging them efficiently.While automation undoubtedly brings many benefits,it also underscores the need for a balanced approach that considers both technological advancement and the human element of our industry.6https:/ we navigate the choppy waters of the coming years,a crucial theme for fashion businesses will be the astute management of costs and inventories,coupled with strategic pricing.This approach isnt just about controlling expenses;its about harnessing financial tools to remain agile in a market characterized by fierce competition and evolving consumer preferences.The effective use of financial analytics and forecasting tools will be key in making informed decisions that strike the right balance between cost-efficiency and investment in growth opportunities.In this environment,understanding and responding to consumer shiftsin styles,tastes,and prioritiesis essential.Brands and suppliers that can adeptly navigate these changes,leveraging modern finance and accounting tools to fine-tune their strategies,will not only survive but thrive.The ability to dynamically adjust pricing in response to market trends and consumer data,while managing inventories to reduce waste and maximize sales potential,will distinguish the leaders in this competitive landscape.Therefore,embracing sophisticated financial management tools becomes more than a necessity;its a strategic advantage.This fiscal agility will allow manufacturers to capitalize on new trends,adapt to market shifts,and create value in a landscape where consumer preferences are evolving every day!Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.6.Fiscal AgilityBalancing the Books7Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.7.Mass CustomizationThe Personal TouchMass customization is transforming the way we think about manufacturing in the fashion industry.This trend is fueled by consumers growing desire for personalized and customized clothing that reflects their individual style,preferences and of course,the latest trends!Manufacturers will have to increasingly offer options for customization,ranging from made-to-measure garments to online design tools.This shift towards personalization requires businesses to be more flexible and adaptable in their production processes,incorporating technologies like 3D printing to cater to individual customer needs.In fact,the rise of Direct-to-Consumer(DTC)brands is a testament to the growing importance of personalization in fashion.These brands are disrupting the traditional retail model by offering more personalized experiences and customization options,often through online platforms.For the manufacturers,this trend represents a significant opportunity to collaborate with DTC brands,adapting their operational processes to meet the demands of a market that values uniqueness and personalization.However,it also challenges suppliers to rethink production models,moving away from mass production to more agile and responsive manufacturing setups.8https:/unece.org/circular-economy/news/innovation-transparency-and-traceability-must-clothing-industryhttps:/www.fashionrevolution.org/about/transparency/Transparency and traceability could together have been THE words of the year 2023 in the fashion dictionary if there was one.The new-age eco-conscious consumer now wants to know the origins and ethical credentials of their clothing.And it doesnt look pretty.Fashion Revolutions Fashion Transparency Index 2023 found that 70 out of 250 brands(28%)still score in the 0-10%range.This demand for transparency is pushing brands,and thus their manufacturers,to expose their supply chains to scrutiny.Ensuring fair wages,safe working conditions,and ethical sourcing of materials is becoming a baseline expectation.Implementing systems for transparency and traceability can be complex and resource intensive.It requires us to track and report on every stage of the manufacturing process,often necessitating investments in new technologies and systems.However,this investment is not without its rewards.By increasing transparency,we not only meet consumer and regulatory demands but also build trust and loyalty with both the buyers and the end consumers.In an industry often criticized for its opacity,taking the lead on transparency can be a powerful differentiator.Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.8.Transparency and TraceabilityThe Conscious Consumer9https:/ transformation in the fashion industry is more than just a trend;its a fundamental shift in how we operate and innovate.For manufacturers,it means embracing a range of new technologies from 3D design and virtual try-on tools to AI-driven manufacturing software and on-demand production.This shift is not just about adopting new tools;its about rethinking our entire approach to fashion manufacturing,from design to delivery.However,the path to digital transformation is not one-size-fits-all.Each companys journey is unique,influenced by its specific challenges,goals,and existing IT landscape.For some,the focus might be on gaining clarity and insights from business data,while for others,it might involve integrating AI into production planning.The key is to develop a tailored digital transformation strategy that aligns with your business objectives and work with a digitalization partner that understands your industry.Want some help?Book a session with a fashion-tech consultant from WFX.Implementing digital solutions requires investing not only in technology,but also in training and development to ensure our teams can effectively utilize these new tools.But the potential benefits are the fruits of a tree that keeps on giving.Digital technologies can streamline day-to-day operations,reduce wastage,enhance product quality,and enable you to respond more quickly to market changes.They also provide an opportunity to collaborate more closely with buyers and partners,offering them more transparency and flexibility.Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.9.Digital TransformationBeyond the Buzzword10https:/ just cant talk about the future of any industry in 2024 without talking about Generative Artificial Intelligence(Gen AI).Surrounded by significant buzz in 2023,Gen AI is beginning to see experimental applications by fashion companies like Levis Strauss,Zegna and Kering.McKinsey predicts it could add up to$275 billion into the apparel,fashion and luxury sectors profits in the next five years.Gen AIs broad applicability across the fashion value chainfrom design and production to marketing and customer engagementmakes it a particularly exciting area of exploration.Companies are looking to scale up use cases where Gen AI has shown clear performance benefits.This trend marks a shift towards more intelligent,data-driven approaches in fashion manufacturing and retail,offering opportunities for increased efficiency,creativity,and personalization.As companies begin to scale their use cases,were likely to witness big changes in how fashion is conceived,created,and consumed.And with the tech itself continuously evolving,Gen AIs potential to transform various aspects of the fashion industry is immense,making it a key area to watch in the coming years.Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.10.Generative AIThe New Frontier in Fashion Innovation11Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.KeyTakeaways As we conclude our exploration of the fashion industrys outlook for 2024-25,its evident that this era is marked by profound transformations.The sector is navigating a complex landscape,shaped by technological innovations,environmental considerations,evolving consumer demands,and shifting Lets distill the essence of this transformation into ten takeaways:Tech Advancements:The adoption of robotics,AI,and digitalization is revolutionizing manufacturing processes,leading to increased efficiency,accuracy,and the ability to meet rapidly changing market demands.Sustainability as a Core Strategy:Environmental consciousness has transitioned from a niche concern to a mainstream imperative.Compliance with stringent regulations and consumer expectations is driving the industry towards sustainable practices.Geopolitical and Economic Influences:The industry is adapting to a volatile global landscape,marked by shifting trade policies,economic fluctuations,and the need for strategic geographic diversification.Rise of Vertical Integration:Companies are taking control of more stages of the supply chain,leading to enhanced production control,reduced lead times,and a more responsive approach to market changes.Consolidation and Competitive Reshaping:The trend towards consolidation is favoring larger manufacturers and challenging smaller ones,emphasizing the importance of efficiency and scalability.1.2.3.4.5.12Copyright WFX 2024.All rights reserved.Workforce Transformation and Reskilling:As automation takes center stage,the role of the human workforce is evolving,necessitating a focus on reskilling and upskilling to synergize with new technologies.Financial Agility and Strategic Management:The ability to manage costs,optimize inventory,and respond dynamically to market trends using advanced fnancial tools is becoming crucial for survival and growth.Mass Customization and Personalization:The shift towards personalized fashion is redefning production processes,demanding greater fexibility and a focus on individual consumer preferences.Transparency and Traceability:Increasing demand for ethical practices and supply chain transparency is pushing brands to provide more information about the origins and production of their garments.Generative AI as a Game Changer:The exploration and implementation of Generative AI in various facets of the industry,from design to customer engagement,is opening new avenues for innovation and efciency.6.7.8.9.10.In conclusion,the multifaceted evolution of the garment industry will be defned by adaptability,innovation,and ethical alignment with emerging trends.The industrys future hinges on its ability to embrace and navigate these transformations with strategic foresight and operational agility.13https:/ is one of the worlds leading providers of modern,100%cloud-based,industry-specifc software solutions for fashion,apparel,textile,home furnishing,and consumer businesses.WFX empowers fashion businesses of all sizes and business models to digitally transform their operations with easy-to-use software products that can be implemented as standalone apps or integrated to form an end-to-end solution.The company is headquartered in Gurugram,India with ofces in North America,South Asia,Europe,UK,and Australia.About WFXWorld Fashion ExchangeStay up to datewith the latest fashion-tech insights and trendsRead WFX Bloghttps:/ Fashion ExchangeGet a FREEConsultationto digitally transformyour Fashion Business! 91 9899761926 91 124 491
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Circana,LLC|For public use1U.S.C-StoreLandscape Q4 2023February 2024Retail Thought Leadership Circana,LLC|For public use2 2Executive SummaryThe convenience channel experienced strong dollar growth in 2023,which outpaced MULO for total store and all top sales categories.The MULO YOY increase in PPU was higher,but c-store made up for the difference with better performance in YOY units sold.While other retail channels outpaced convenience in trip growth,c-store sales benefited from a YOY increase in units-per-trip while other channels decreased for the year.Looking ahead to 2024,convenience channel mergers and acquisitions are likely to continue,as well as retailers expanding into new regions.C-stores have opportunities to improve customer experience in 2024 by implementing changes to decrease checkout time and enhance loyalty programs.Key 2023 Trends2024 Outlook In 2023,convenience channel dollar sales, 4.8%,outpaced MULO, 3.7%,leading to a slight YOY increase in c-store dollar share of MULO C to 17.5%in 2023,from 17.4%in 2022.C-stores also outperformed MULO in unit sales in 2023(-0.4%for convenience channel vs.-3.0%for MULO).Convenience outperformed MULO in YOY dollar sales across all top sales categories including cigarettes,beer,and packaged beverages(NA).C-store total beverage dollar sales grew YOY in the 2023 morning daypart;specialty coffee was a key contributor,with a 9%YOY increase in dollar sales.Price-per-unit increased 5.1%YOY in c-stores and 6.9%in MULO for 2023,with both channels posting decelerated PPU growth in each quarter of the year.C-store shoppers continue to opt for lower-priced items to partially offset increased prices.In 2023,private label share of total store dollars decreased from 9.2%to 8.8%YOY in convenience.Private label dollar sales for c-stores did see a 3.9%YOY increase in 2023 but did not keep pace with national brand growth, 9.1%.The convenience channel underperformed other retail channels in YOY trip growth for 2023 but was the only channel to see an increase in units/trip vs.2022(4%increase YOY for c-stores vs.5crease for rest of retail).Foodservice remains a key emphasis for many retailers in the convenience channel and had a 4.4%YOY increase in dollars for 2023,but did not keep pace with QSR,which grew 6.7%YOY.Convenience channel mergers and acquisitions made headlines in 2023 and the trend is likely to continue in 2024,with retailers acquiring new stores and expanding into new regions.Convenience customers indicate that they shop at c-stores because of quicker checkouts and loyalty rewards but would like to see improved prices and loyalty discounts in 2024.Kiosk check-outs and e-commerce sales grew in 2023 and both can be leveraged by c-store retailers to improve customer experience by decreasing check-out time.Circana,LLC|For public use3 3Circana,LLC|For public useU.S.C-store Landscape Q4 2023Sales Trends3Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use4 4Convenience channel YOY dollar sales growth outpaced all channels in Q4 and for total 2023Source:Circana,POS,13WE December 31,2023Multi-outlet(MULO)and food channels both saw their fourth consecutive quarter of decelerated YOY dollar growth in Q4 2023Convenience channel dollar share of MULO C was 17.5%in 2023,up slightly from 17.4%in 2022C-stores also outperformed MULO in unit sales in 2023(-0.4%for convenience channel vs.-3.0%for MULO)Dollar Sales%vs.YA7.8%4.9%2.6%0.1%3.7%5.6%3.8%1.2%-1.0%2.3%0.4%-3.1%-2.9%-5.7%-2.9%5.0%5.4%4.8%3.8%4.8%Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Total 2023MULOFood DrugConvCircana,LLC|For public use5 5Circana,LLC|For public use-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0.0.0%HEALTH&BEAUTY CAREALTERNATIVE SNACKSOTHER DAIRY&DELISWEET SNACKSCANDYSALTY SNACKSOTHER TOBACCOBEERPACKAGED BEVERAGES(NA)CIGARETTESThe convenience channel outperformed MULO in all top sales categories in 2023Category Performance|2023 Dollar Sales%Change vs.YA*Top categories based on U.S.convenience sales$in 2023Source:Circana,POS,52WE December 31,2023Total U.S.Convenience Total U.S.Multi-outlet Circana,LLC|For public use6 6In 2023,convenience outperformed MULO across all regions except California and Mid-SouthNote:$growth index vs.MULO=($%chg.conv/$%chg.MULO)*100;Source:Circana,Retail Advantage,CY ending December 31,2023State$%Chg.vs.YA in C-store$%Chg.vs.YAin MULOWashington 8.1% 1.9%West Virginia 8.1% 4.0%Massachusetts 7.9% 3.9%Pennsylvania 7.2% 3.5%Arkansas 7.1% 5.6%Bottom 5Top 5Total Convenience,Circana Standard Eight Regions Dollar Sales%Chg.vs.YA CY 2023Top and BottomDollar Growth States,CY 2023Regions(Conv.)$Sales(Billion)%Chg.vs.YA%Dollar Any Merch%$Any Merch Pt.Chg.$Growth Index vs.MULOSouth Central$27.7 5.8.8 1.6150%West$20.8 5.6.7 0.4173%Southeast$33.4 5.3.2 0.9118%Plains$15.5 5.3.5 1.0112%Northeast$28.0 5.2.7 0.6136%Great Lakes$28.8 4.5.8 0.7135%Mid-South$27.7 4.1.3 1.697lifornia$13.6 0.7.5 2.535lifornia 0.7% 1.9%Maine 0.8% 4.5%New Hampshire 1.4% 4.8%Oregon 2.1% 3.9%North Carolina 2.6% 3.7 120 120Based on Dollar Sales%Chg.vs.YACircana,LLC|For public use7 7C-store foodservice occasions declined in 2023Check growth drove sales increases in c-store foodservice occasions.Source:Circana,CRESTFood-forward c-stores include Caseys,WaWa,QuikTrip/QT,Kwik Trip/Kwik Star,Pilot Flying J/Pilot Travel Center,Sheetz,Cumberland Farms,RaceTrac/Race Trac,Kum&Go,Maverik,Royal Farms,GetGo,QuickChek,Rutters Farm Store,Buc-ees-6%-6%-3%0%3%1%1%1%3%2%3%0%1%-2%-2%-3%Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Foodservice Trips%Change vs.YAQSRC-storesNearly half of the recent quarters QSR growth was fueled by increases in the coffee/tea quick service restaurantsFood-forward c-stores make up 20%of traffic but only 7%of the decline this quarter1%7%5%-2%4%6%-5%0%5 %TrafficDollarsAvg.CheckYE 2023%Change vs.YAQSRC-StoresCircana,LLC|For public use8 8Beverage is of major importance at c-storesC-store trips include a beverage the clear majority of the time and well above QSR.Dayparts are based on consumer perceptionSource:Circana,CREST,12ME December 202391s%5EUeu%C-StoresQSR%of Trips Including a Beverage24%3%Morning MealLunchDinnerPM SnackDistribution of C-Stores Beverages 1%-3%-1%-2%Driven by specialty coffee and CSDsservings%chg.vs.YA*consumed within 6 hours of purchaseafternoon and eveningJust over 9 in 10 c-store foodservice visits*include a beverageP.M.snack daypart is largest in share,but morning meal performed bestCircana,LLC|For public use9Circana,LLC|For public use9Beverage alcohol was the top growing beverage at c-stores in 2023 and has consistently grown in importanceC-store competitive strengths include beverage alcohol and juiceC-store foodservice beveragesBeverage alcohol is an important part of c-stores beverage mix.QSRs are moving in on the energy/sports drinks category quite rapidly.*%of foodservice trips including beverage alcoholSource:Circana,CREST 12ME December 2023C-StoresQSRsCSDsBottled WaterBeverage AlcoholTraditional CoffeeJuiceCSDsSpecialty CoffeeTraditional CoffeeIced TeaBottled Water6.79.6201820192020202120222023Beverage Alcohol Incidence*Servings vs.YA 5%Top 5 Beverage CategoriesCircana,LLC|For public use1010Circana,LLC|For public useU.S.C-store Landscape Q4 2023Pricing10Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use1111Circana,LLC|For public useU.S.MULO U.S.Convenience MULO and convenience average price-per-unit growth continued to decelerate in Q4 2023Source:Circana,POS,13WE December 31,2023Average Price-per-unit Across the Store%Change vs.YAFor 2023,the average PPU increased 5.1%(from$3.92 to$4.12)YOY in c-stores and 6.9%in MULO(from$4.26 to$4.56).Despite easing inflation,comparisons from 2023 to 2021 show significant average PPU increases,up 10.8%in convenience and 16.7%in MULO.10.1.8.7.0.4%8.4%5.0%2.4%4.3%5.3%6.6%7.4%6.0%6.0%5.3%3.1%Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Circana,LLC|For public use1212Customers are trading down and opting for lower priced products in C-storesCircana Inflation MonitorSource:Circana,U.S.convenience POS,13WE December 31,2023-10%-5%0%5%OverallCIGARETTESOTHER TOBACCOPACKAGED BEV(NA)BEERCANDYSALTY SNACKSHEALTH&BEAUTYInflationAssortmentMix7.0%8.0%9.0%8.6%7.8%6.3%4.8%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.5%-0.3%0.4%0.3%-2.2%-1.9%-2.0%-3.2%-1.3%-1.5%-2.0%Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023InflationAssortmentMixWhat the retailer makes availableWhat the customerpurchasesWhat prices the retailer setsPrice-per-unit growth decreased for c-stores in Q4 as customers continued trading down to lower-priced products(mix)Customers continue to opt for lower-priced products in many of the top sales categories,including cigarettes,other tobacco products,and beerCircana,LLC|For public use1313Circana,LLC|For public useNational brands continue to outperform private label in sales dollars and units in convenienceBeer,wine,liquor,and tobaccocategoriesexcluded from totalsSales source:Circana,POS,WEDecember 31,2023Convenience channel private label YOY dollar sales growth continued to slow in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022.Private Label National BrandC-store YOY Dollar Growth12%5%2%-1%9%8%7%Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Private label sales increased 3.9%YOY in sales dollars for 2023 but did not keep pace with national brand products,which increased 9.1%YOYIn 2023,private label share of total store dollars decreased from 9.2%to 8.8%YOY in convenience,while MULO increased PL share from 22.2%to 22.6%Private label units in the convenience channel decreased 2.2%YOY in 2023 while national brand items increased slightly(0.5%)YOYOther dairy&deli made up 36%of private label sales in the convenience channel but dollar share of total stores YOY decreased from 66.2%to 65.4%in 2023Circana,LLC|For public use1414Circana,LLC|For public useU.S.C-store Landscape Q4 2023Baskets,Trips,and Leakage14Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use1515Circana,LLC|For public useConvenience trips continue to show YOY growthBut these trips have not kept pace with the rest of retail,where trip growth was led by the dollar channel in 2023Source:Circana,Consumer Receipt Panel data NBD adjusted,YTD ending December 10,2023,total store excluding fresh4%2%2%2%1%8%Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023CONVENIENCERETAIL(EX.CONV)13.13.53.4-10.8-6.60.52.23.5DOLLARCLUBWALMARTMASSXDRUGFOODCONVENIENCEOMNICHANNELTrips%Change vs.YA2023 Channel Trips%Change vs.YACircana,LLC|For public use1616Units per Trip%Change vs.YA2023 Channel Units per Trip%Change vs.YA2%7%2%3%1%-5%-9%-10%Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023CONVENIENCERETAIL(EX.CONV)Total retail has seen YOY decreases in basket size,while convenience has shown YOY growthIn 2023,units/trip increased 4%YOY in convenience channel while rest of retail decreased 5%versus 2022.Source:Circana,Consumer Receipt Panel data NBD adjusted,YTD ending December 10,2023,total store excluding fresh-4.3-1.8-4.3-8.2-3.4-3.24.2-1.3DOLLARCLUBWALMARTMASSXDRUGFOODCONVENIENCEOMNICHANNELCircana,LLC|For public use1717Circana,LLC|For public useU.S.C-store Landscape Q4 20232024 Outlook and Actions17Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use1818Opportunity for C-StoresTop Big Game FoodsGearing up for Super Bowl SundaySuper Bowl Sunday=Super Bowl 2022(February 13,2022) 2023(February 12,2023)Source:Circana,CRESTOn Super Bowl Sunday,C-store share of commercial foodservice dinner and PM snack traffic is below what it was in all of 2023.QSR,however,is capturing a larger share than expected.Wings are 240%more likely to be ordered on Super Bowl Sunday compared to the annual average.QSR pizza chains in total get a 7%lift in transactions during Super Bowl week vs.the prior week,making it the best-performing restaurant channel during that week.Pizza is the#1 food from commercial foodservice on Super Bowl Sunday.14.5e.0.0.3b.0.0%C-StoresQSRFull-Serve RestaurantsC-store Share of Commercial Foodservice Dinner&PM Snack TrafficSuper Bowl Sunday12 ME Dec 2023Circana,LLC|For public use1919Circana,LLC|For public useC-store expansion and consolidation is likely to continueSource:Raymond James Investment Banking|Convenience Store Insighthttps:/ Major Acquisitions7-Eleven acquired Speedway in 2020,gaining more than 4,000 storesEG Group acquired Minit Mart in 2018,gaining close to 1,000 stores,as well as Cumberland Farms in 2019,gaining about 600 convenience storesConvenience Store M&A TransactionsConvenience Channel Store Count Has Experienced 2%Growth 2023 vs.2022Top M&A Deals of 2023 BP&TravelCenters of America merger 7-Eleven International LLC inks$1.1B acquisition deal Chevron to buy Hess in$53B deal Maverik completes acquisition of Kum&Go Loves Travel Stops completes acquisition of EZ GO Convenience StoresDeals in 2024 7-Eleven starts 2024 strong with a Sunoco acquisition Acquisition includes Stripes Convenience Stores and Laredo Taco Company Restaurants in West Texas,New Mexico,and OklahomaCircana,LLC|For public use2020Circana,LLC|For public useConsumers mentioned loyalty as an existing and future reason to shop the convenience channelSource:Circana,OmniConsumer Survey Solutions;Primary Grocery Shoppers in National Consumer Panel;November 2023 What Consumers Seek In Future C-Store ShoppingReasons Why Consumers Choose to Shop in C-Stores57%already there for gas23%loyalty rewards16%quicker checkout than grocery38%lower prices/better promotions25%loyalty discounts16tter product selections31%of surveyed consumers shop in c-stores at least once a week,with 14%going several times per weekCircana,LLC|For public use2121Kiosk use is on the riseSource:Circana,CREST,12ME October 20233.6%1.6 ME Oct 23Traffic Mix-%KioskC-StoresQSRKiosk use is more than twice as common at c-stores.Food-forward c-stores are leaders in kiosk adoption in the U.S.and have had a mix of 6%since 2018 Teens,high-income households,and Asian/Pacific Islanders over-index on usage of kiosks Kiosks are a good way to attract families who can take their time ordering together Kiosks,if done well,offer seamless integration with loyalty accounts Kiosks ability to change the display language offers an easier ordering method for those who speak English as a second language Right now,kiosk ordering is best when offered alongside ordering with an employee some consumers still prefer human interaction and the extra attention 21Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use2222Convenience stores have embraced e-commerce and look to maintain positive momentum in 2024Source:Circana,TSV 13WE December 31,2023;https:/ Store|E-commerce|$Sales(B)and%ChangeE-commerce Trends Across the IndustryMany convenience stores are focusing on revamping their mobile platforms and delivery services,which underscores the increasing significance of online sales in the industry and emphasizes the necessity for retailers to prioritize e-commerce strategies to stay competitive.CY 2020CY 2021CY 2022CY 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023$150.2$168.3$188.2$211.6$48.6$52.2$52.0$58.9Dollar Sales%sales chg.vs.YA 12.0% 11.8% 12.4% 10.2% 15.4% 13.9% 10.5%Han-Dee Hugos has partnered with Rovertown to introduce its inaugural mobile app.This strategic move reflects Han-Dee Hugos commitment to embracing digital technologies and enhancing the customer experience through mobile platforms.Dash In recently introduced its mobile app and loyalty program,with the goal of implementing them across its network by 2024.In just three weeks after their launch in August 2023,the loyalty program and mobile app attracted over 2,500 members.Walmart experienced a 24%YOY growth in online sales for its U.S.division and 15%growth globally.Walmarts pickup and delivery services have played a significant role in driving growth and gaining market share among higher-income households,while also serving as the primary channel for acquiring Walmart members.Circana,LLC|For public use2323Circana,LLC|For public useAs inflation slowed in 2023,consumer sentiment improvedSources:U.S.Index of Consumer Sentiment,University of Michigans Consumer Sentiment Survey;CPI U.S.BLS;U.S.All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price;U.S.EIAFood prices increased 2.7%in December vs.YA.Food consumed outside of the home increased significantly,5.2%,in the same period,while food consumed at home increased modestly,1.3%.2.7%Consumer sentiment in the U.S.experienced a boost in December,surging by 13%from Novembers reading to reach 69.7,effectively eliminating four months of decline.This shift can be attributed to improved perceptions of inflation,driven by lower gas prices.69.7 December Consumer Sentiment Index December 2023 Food Consumer Price IndexInflation Gasoline Price(Dollars/Gallon)8.38.69.18.58.38.27.77.16.56.46.05.04.94.13.03.23.73.73.23.13.44.24.55.04.64.03.83.93.73.33.43.53.53.73.63.63.73.93.93.93.93.70.01.02.03.04.05.06.0Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23Circana,LLC|For public use2424Fundamental changes in mobility patterns are likely to impact convenience in 2024C-stores may have opportunity to better cater to a higher-income,road-tripping consumer.Fundamental Shift in Mobility PatternsMany higher-income consumers are in a position of living and working from anywhere.While commuting miles are down,leisure travel is up.Mass transit utilization remains well below 2020,partly driven by a de-urbanization trend.Driving to a long weekend vacation destination,while continuing to meet work demands without taking time off,is the new normal.The U.S.Vehicle FleetSupply chain challenges led to suppressed new car inventory over the last few years,driving used car prices higher.While inventory levels have improved,higher interest rates continue to suppress demand.The net effect is an aging U.S.car fleet with fewer vehicles covered by OEM warranties and dealership maintenance plans.While some continue to utilize the dealer for service,many others have shifted to DIY or aftermarket DIFM alternatives.Recreational EquipmentThe pandemic helped drive demand for recreational equipment to record-setting levels.This includes boats,RVs,ATVs,side-by-sides,motorcycles,and others.DIY maintenance of this equipment and the vehicles needed to tow most of it continue to prevail.Watch-OutsWe expect continued financial pressure on lower-income households.This has traditionally led to combined trips and trade-downs across all product categories.Segmenting consumers by income levels may be beneficial to understand if higher income behavior changes are offsetting changes by a lower-income cohort.Circana,LLC|For public use2525Circana,LLC|For public useCustomer trend outlook and actions for c-store retailersTrendOutlookActionsCircana Can HelpIn Q4 2023,QSR had an increase in YOY trips,which outperformed c-stores and was fueled by growth at coffee/tea quick service restaurants.The morning meal occasion is likely to remain an important battleground in 2024,where c-stores have an opportunity to increase share.Understand which convenience and QSR retailers your customers are visiting in the morning,and which items are performing best in your competitive market.Use Circanas CREST data to detect key foodservice trends in your market and leverage findings to capture trips from QSR and other retail competitors.Price-per-unit growth decreased for c-stores in Q4 2023 as customers continued trading down to lower-priced products.Customers indicate that lower prices and better product selections would be key drivers in increasing trips to c-stores in the future.Determine how customer item selection in your market is changing and adjust assortment to better serve your shoppers.Utilize Circanas Inflation Monitor tool to identify categories that may benefit from assortment adjustments and pinpoint item trends.Convenience trips increased YOY in 2023 but did not keep pace with the rest of retail,where dollar channel YOY growth was the highest.It can be expected that the dollar channel will continue to be a significant competitor to c-stores in 2024 and beyond.Identify retailers and operators with highest share of wallet for your shoppers to better understand the full competitive landscape for your stores.Utilize Circanas Complete Consumer Receipt Panel to understand consumers purchasing and consumption trends across channels to win more shoppers and sales.Circana,LLC|For public use2626Circana,LLC|For public useCircana Solutions Learn more about how the solutions in this report can support your business.The most comprehensive source for monitoring consumer visits to commercial&non-commercial foodservice locations,for market share tracking across the total foodservice industry.Circana CRESTAlwaysON Analytics Inflation MonitorThe only source that quickly decomposes average price to diagnose whether changes in average price are true inflation,mix shifts,or assortment.The largest census-based POS coverage of CPG core channelsMULO Best-in-class item classification and on-1the-fly alignment to market measurement sales trends to understand omnichannel purchasing.Circana Receipt PanelCircana Survey SolutionsSurvey operates at the intersection of what people think and what they do,leveraging verified purchase behaviors and a comprehensive survey portfolio to better explain and anticipate peoples choices.26Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use27Circana,LLC|For public use27Want to learn more?Circana can help.Plus,registered users get new thought leadership from Circanas research,data,and analytics experts.Scan the QR code to subscribe or email us at Circana,LLC|For public use28Thank you
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