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巴克莱银行（Barclays）：中国电商行业报告-视频直播-电子商务拼图的关键部分（英文版）（34页）.pdf

Equity Research 8 July 2020 FOCUS Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 24. Restricted - Internal China eCommerce Video Live Streaming: The Crucial Piece of the eCommerce Jigsaw Puzzle The Key Takeaways: We view live streaming as a crucial function in the differentiation of eCom service offerings, as it creates an interactive scene to seamlessly connect consumers with sellers and boosts the conversion rates. The function generated CNY451bn (US$64bn) GMV in CY19, c.4% of Chinas eCom GMV, and is forecast to reach CNY2.9tn (US$410bn) in CY22, representing c.16% market share, according to iResearch. We view eCom platforms and short video apps as the primary beneficiaries of the tailwind noting the formers comprehensive eCom infrastructure and the latters considerable top-of-funnel user traffic enabling both to embed eCom live streaming into their ecosystems. The Covid-19 lockdown has given live streaming an opportunity to gain market share from offline, with a wide product spectrum from apparel to fresh foods reached by live broadcasting. As eCom and short video companies both explore the best model to maximize their financial economics, we think the win-win strategy is for the two to harness their respective advantages and cooperate with each other. We view the Streets concerns over the threat from the “decentralized” eCom of short video apps as overdone, as the industry expertise of eCom companies and their well-established supply chain and logistics services are hard to disrupt in the foreseeable future. Lastly, the eCom video live streaming revolution hasnt yet reached the West, and the business model could be adapted by Amazon, Facebook and Google. We reiterate our OW rating on BABA given its leading position in the space and expect JDs (OW) efforts will help it secure a No. 2 market position. The Secret Recipe for Improving eCom Platforms Conversion Rates: With BABA, JD and PDD accumulating 726mn, 384mn, and 628mn annual buyers, respectively, improving the conversion rate is now the most critical task, and live streaming can help enhance user stickiness and conversion rates. BABA is the pioneer in the space with over CNY200bn GMV from Taobao Live in 2019, and JDs increased efforts on that front saw it achieve solid results in the past “6.18” shopping festival. Short Video Companies Unsatisfied with the Status Quo: The short video apps have never disguised their ambitions to explore the US$6tn retail market. As a manufacturing country, China has c.30mn SME merchants competing for ecommerce, and we believe short video apps are best positioned in the funnel. We estimate c.15% of the live streaming-driven GMV was generated from short video apps in CY19. The apps are also trying to bypass eCom platforms by directly inviting merchants to open stores in the apps. Threat of Decentralized eCom Ecosystem Seems Overrated: We dont expect the decentralized ecosystem by short video apps to disrupt the eCom market order, as it did to the ads market, since: 1) eCom is one of the largest ad categories, and short video apps would not risk the loss of this business; 2) eCom has a longer supply chain and operates complicated logistics services, requiring deep industry expertise; and 3) Most brands have built steady partnerships with Alibaba/JD/PinDuoDuo and movement costs are high. INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S. Internet POSITIVE Unchanged U.S. Internet Gregory Zhao 1 212 526 2268 BCI, US Ross Sandler 1 415 263 4470 BCI, US Jane Han 1 212 526 9317 BCI, US Barclays | China eCommerce 8 July 2020 2 CONTENTS Investment Summary . 3 Live Streaming: The Crucial Piece of the eCom Jigsaw Puzzle . 4 Live-Streaming Shapes Short-Video Apps as eCom Platforms . 7 Short Video is Better at Traffic Acquisition, Rather Than Conversion . 7 Live Streaming Improves Transaction Conversion on Short Video Apps . 8 Three Kinds of Partnerships, Different Financial Economics . 8 Financial Returns Could Drive Renegotiation with eCom Companies . 9 In-App Stores Providing Short Video Apps have the Highest Financial Returns . 9 Renegotiation of the Commission Sharing Scheme May be the Best Option . 9 A Closer Look at Short Video Apps eCom Functions . 10 Kuaishou, the #1 eCom Live Streaming Short Video App in China. 10 Douyin Rapidly Catching up, leveraging a Large User Base and its Alibaba Partnership . 11 Live Streaming Boosts the Conversion Rate in eCom Apps . 13 Taobao Live: The Leader in eCom Live Streaming . 13 JD.com: Fast Catching Up to Secure the #2 Market Position . 15 PDD; An Aggressive New Entrant Trying to Differentiate its Service Offering . 17 eCom Enriching Monetization of Pan-Entertainment Apps . 18 Two Frequently Asked Questions by Investors . 20 Q1: What Types of Products Are Suitable for eCom Live Streaming? . 20 Q2: Whose Market Shares Are eCom Live Streaming Taking? . 21 Booming MCN it also provides short video apps with a tool to convert their top-of-the-funnel user traffic to eCom transactions. On the eCom company side, Alibaba, JD and PinDuoDuo have seamlessly integrated the online shopping value chains from user traffic acquisition and product procurement, to payment and logistics. With annual buyers reaching 726mn, 384mn, and 628mn in the past quarter, we think it is crucial that companies improve users stickiness on the platforms and facilitate consumers in making their purchasing decisions. Live streaming as a virtual interactive scene fits in perfectly with this requirement, and Taobaos achievement in the past Singles Day and “6.18” shopping event proves its effectiveness. Under our eCom coverage, Alibaba is well ahead of its peers on this front with more than CNY200bn GMV generated in 2019, representing c.45% market share. It has attracted more than 400mn live streaming users. Its GMV mix is well balanced between the store owners/sellers (c.70%) and the KOLs/celebrities (c.30%). Alibaba has teamed up with the Douyin app (also known as TikTok outside of China, owned by ByteDance), leveraging its short video user base. JD is also similarly partnering with Kuaishou, and has achieved good results during the past “6.18” promotion. On the short video company side, the short video apps were initially involved in monetizing user traffic with ads services, with eCom companies just another ads vertical. Later, the short video apps adopted deeper partnerships with the eCom companies. By assisting their merchants in opening stores and selling products inside short video apps, the short video companies started to share in commissions (1-2%). According to 36K, Kuaishou was the #1 short video app with CNY35bn in-app GMV in 2019. However, short video apps were not satisfied with the partnership with eCom companies. Given the better financial economics, Kuaishou and Douyin launched their Store functions, bypassing eCom companies to directly invite merchants to open stores in the short video apps. In this case, we estimate the apps can earn c.5% commissions. We dont view the new Store function as a big threat to eCom companies. First, the eCom business has a much longer value chain which requires deeper industry expertise than the ads business, so it takes time for short video apps to lift their learning curve. Secondly, we believe the one-stop services, including payment, logistics, marketing solutions and supply chain management services provided by the eCom companies will be very difficult to be fulfilled by the short video apps in the near term. In addition, most of the brands and scalable retailers have built up steady relationships with Alibaba, JD and PinDuoDuo, which is not that easy to break. As a result, we are not that worried about the potential competition from the “decentralized” eCom ecosystem developed by the short video apps. It seems more likely that the short video apps and eCom companies would renegotiate a commission sharing scheme. eCom companies have embraced live streaming technology, and Alibaba is clearly ahead of peers Short video companies are unsatisfied with the current model and commission sharing We view the concerns over the potential competition from the “decentralized” eCom as over- done Barclays | China eCommerce 8 July 2020 4 Live Streaming: The Crucial Piece of the eCom Jigsaw Puzzle eCom companies have never stopped pursuing market share expansion from the online peers and offline market, even though Chinas online shopping penetration already exceeded 25% in CY19. The other mobile Internet traffic entrances, such as short video, social and media apps are also looking for opportunities to increase their share of Chinas retail market, which amounted to CNY41tn (US$5.9tn) in 2019. After almost two decades, we are starting to see relative stability in the competitive dynamics of both the upstreaming (user traffics) and down streaming (fulfilment services) of the eCom market. On the user acquisition side, instant messaging, video (long and short) and media platforms share the top layer of the traffic funnel, while eCom companies, such as Alibaba and JD, dominate and consolidate the logistics and delivery markets. As a result, all these companies are exploring measures to enhance the from-traffic-to-transaction conversion rates, and have coincidently selected video live streaming as the critical element. FIGURE 1 Live streaming eCom has advantages against the other shopping formats in multiple areas Source: Barclays Research We view the video live streaming function as a critical step in the ongoing evolution of Chinas eCom industry. Its rapid development and prevalence among Internet users has fuelled the restructuring of the online shopping value chain and redefined consumers purchasing behaviours. The reform not only expands the addressable user base, such as the integration with short video apps such as Douyin/TikTok, and Kuaishou, but also substantially improves existing user engagement and shopping experience in the online shopping apps (Taobao, JD.com, PinDuoDuo, etc.). Specifically, we think the changes are happening on the following fronts: 1) Short video apps: Douyin and Kuaishou have experienced dramatic growth in the past three years, accumulating about 489mn and 379mn MAU as of December 2019, according to QuestMobile. Each daily user spends more than one hour per day in each app, and more than 10 times each day. Such high engagement apps have created new traffic funnels to the eCom platforms. However, the length of short videos on Douyin and Kuaishou is normally between 15 seconds to several minutes, which is insufficient to provide a comprehensive introduction of products or brands, in our view. Video live streaming creates the connection between the short video traffic and the hosts, who can further drive consumer interests in the products and promote their decision-making. We think live streaming functions substantially improve the conversion rate from transaction leads to the final transaction. Live streaming eComShort video eComTraditional shelf eComTV ShoppingOffline shopping Shopping format Real time elaboration Company Purchase Browsing PurchaseBrowsing Purchase Real time elaboration Purchase Real time elaboration Company Purchase Characteristic More interactive More experience More professional More pricing advantages More traffic sources Higher conversion Less interactive More experience More professional Less pricing advantages More traffic sources Higher conversion Less interactive Less experience Less professional Less pricing advantages More traffic sources Lower conversion Less interactive More experience Less professional Less pricing advantages Less traffic sources Lower conversion More interactive More experience More professional Less pricing advantages Less traffic source Lower conversion Visit sunk costLowLowLowLowHigh Users decision costLowLower Medium HigherLower In the competitive eCom market in China, both the existing players and new entrants are exploring opportunities to enhance conversion rates Video live streaming enhances short video apps role as a major traffic contributor to online shopping Barclays | China eCommerce 8 July 2020 5 FIGURE 2 Short video was the #2 vertical category in China, in terms of user daily time spent and daily session frequency Source: QuestMobile, Barclays Research The integrated short video and live streaming marketing solution not only generates high quality leads to the Taobao and JD merchants that set up stores on the short video apps, but also directs traffic to the merchants who directly open stores in the short video apps. The latter might cause some potential competition with Taobao and JD, as the merchants can bypass the eCom platforms and open stores on Douyin and Kuaishou. FIGURE 3 Mobile Internet user traffic funnel of online shopping services Source: Barclays Research Barclays | China eCommerce 8 July 2020 6 2) Online shopping apps: Alibaba was the first eCom company to realize the importance of the live streaming function and launched these channels within Taobao as early as 2016. With 846mn mobile MAU and 726mn annual active buyers as of March 2020, Alibaba is more than just an online shopping vertical, as its rich functions, such as local services, ticket/hotel booking, second-hand products, classified services, etc. have propelled it to the top-layer of the traffic funnel. Following Alibaba, the other two major eCom players, JD.com and PinDuoDuo have also launched live streaming channels in their apps. The above eCom platforms also own industry leading fulfilment cap

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