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1The global economy has admirably navigated through a series of shocks over the past few years.With inflation nearly back on track across many economies and central banks recalibrating policy,the Mas-tercard Economics Institute(MEI)believes it is time for the economy to shift gears once again.MEI expects the global economy in 2025 to be defined by shifts in monetary policy,fiscal policy and a move toward equilibrium rates for growth and inflation.Here are the key economic forecasts for 2025:While there is a common narrative around the world,it is crucial to recognize the important nuances by region and country.Our regional sections highlight these differences.MEI forecasts 3.2%global GDP growth in 2025,following a 3.1%pace in 2024.Growth is expected to remain strong in the U.S.,India,and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC),with modest expansion in Europe and much of Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC).In contrast,MEI expects a gradual stabilization in the Chinese Mainland on increased policy stimulus.Inflation eased significantly across the major economies in 2024,driven by lower pric-es for durable goods and easing inflation for nondurable goods.While tariffs continue to pose upside risks to goods prices,moderating wage growth is expected to ease inflation in select services industries.MEI forecasts trimmed global inflation at 3.2%(removing the top and bottom 10%outliers)and average weighted inflation for G10 countries at 2.4%.Consumers remain empowered as innovation and digitalization in the retail sector provide them with more choice and businesses with greater operational efficiency.MEI expects basket shifts;with lower prices and declining interest rates,spending on big-ticket items electronics,furniture and appliances will improve.While pent-up demand for experiences has diminished,MEI still observes a strong desire to prioritize spending on“big moments.”Of course,the outlook is not without risks.The geopolitical backdrop remains a signif-icant issue in Europe,Asia and the Middle East.Additionally,there is uncertainty sur-rounding the costs and gains of the incoming US administrations economic agenda.MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTEEconomic outlook 2025Steering through changePublished:December 09,20242We also explore a few key themes shaping the 2025 global economy,leveraging Mastercards aggregated and anonymized data to provide a unique perspective.This includes cyclical changes such as shifts in consumption as central banks lower rates or how consumers respond to price level changes and structural changes,like the impact of migration on capital flows or workplace flexibility driving greater female workforce engagement.Finally,MEI addresses how trade policy will influence relative prices worldwide.Note:estimates are%change of annual average.SOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS IN OUR RESEARCH COVERAGE AND IMF FOR REST.LONG-RUN ESTIMATES FROM IMF AND OXFORD.Mastercard Economics Institute 2025 forecasts by marketUnited StatesChinese MainlandGermanyJapanIndiaUnited KingdomTurkeyFranceSaudi ArabiaItalyPolandCanadaUnited Arab EmiratesBrazilSingaporeSouth KoreaMexicoAustraliaSpainIndonesiaReal Gross Domestic Product(%YoY)2.34.50.61.26.61.22.70.83.70.73.41.8522.51.81.52.11.95Real Consumer Spending(%YoY)2.64.70.80.96.21.31.70.84.51.13.52.14.322.81.81.82.425Consumer Price Inflation(%YoY)2.70.42.12.24.12.6301.821.64.52.12.54.31.8 23.82.82230 %YOY-20liAmsterdamBarcelonaDubaiLucernGenevaIstanbul LondonDublinMadridSevillePragueBudapestAthensPueblaTokyoBacalarStockholmRomeSan Miguel De AllendeFukuokaTulumVeniceTbilisiSharjahVelenciaCopenhagenLombokPricing priorities:Travel twins and apparelConsumers worldwide have been navigating a bumpy road of rising prices over the last five years,largely driven by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions.While inflation the rate of increase in pric-es has slowed significantly,price levels themselves remain elevated.As the prices of goods and services rise,purchasing behaviors are shifting gears.For essential goods and services with few substitutes,the quantities purchased are unlikely to decline significantly in re-sponse to price increases.However,for products and services with varied price and quality levels avail-able,we may see a trend of“trading down,”where consumers opt for more affordable versions.We examine this phenomenon in two specific sectors travel and apparel both of which are impacted by a growing number of options and more information,allowing consumers to seek the best value.In the travel economy,we explore the concept of duplication in destinations,which have been dubbed“travel dupes”.But rather than focus on the unknown and hidden“dupes,”we analyze“travel twins”which we believe are destinations that offer similar attractions and experiences at lower prices or with smaller crowds.MEIs analysis reveals that average annual year-to-date(YTD)growth in hotel transactions across duplicate destinations is nine percentage points higher compared to their more well-known counterparts.In Europe,the picturesque canals and bike-friendly atmosphere of Copenhagen mirror Amsterdams charm,while in Mexico,Bacalars crystal-clear waters and lush greenery rival the beauty of Tulum.Similarly,in Southeast Asia,Lomboks stunning beaches and serene landscapes offer an alternative to the bustling crowds of Bali.Global themesSOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Travel twinsInternational hotel transaction YOY(Jan-Sep23 vs Jan-Sep24)TwinOriginal4For the apparel sector,consumers can get access to the latest,most stylish fits in a timely fashion and at affordable prices,even after factoring in global transportation costs,thanks in part to the accel-eration of e-commerce options.Using aggregated and anonymized Mastercard data,we segmented apparel brands into“high-end luxury”and“mass market”(more affordable).We then compared YTD spending growth on high-end luxury versus mass apparel brands across 26 countries.We found that spending growth on mass apparel brands is outpacing high-end luxury brands in 85%of these coun-tries,with a seven-percentage point difference on average.However,there are some countries buck-ing this trend.In Mexico,high-end luxury spending is gaining traction,while in Japan,the depreciation of the yen is boosting visitor arrivals and visitor spending on high-end luxury goods.In fact,in Japan,spending on high-end luxury brands is outpacing mass brands by 14 percentage points.Will this continue in 2025?The sustainability of“trading down”will depend on whether consumers still view price levels as too high.With inflation rates easing and more time passing since the initial pan-demic-induced shock,MEI expects this phenomenon to ease.However,consumers will remain savvy and informed,continuing to search for ways to make their dollars go further.2024 YTD(Jan-Sep)spending growth differential onMass vs.Luxury apparelNote:Growth differential calculated by subtracting 2024 YTD(Jan-Sep)spending growth on high-end luxury apparel from spending growth on mass apparel.Analysis covers both domestic and cross-border spending.AustraliaGermanyUnited KingdomPolandChileItalySpainAustriaBrazilUnited Arab EmiratesSingaporeDominican RepublicUnited StatesIndiaFrancePhilippinesColombiaThailandCanadaEgyptHong Kong SARBelgiumHungaryNew ZealndMexicoGreeceJapan-16pp-14pp-12pp-10pp-8pp-6pp-4pp-2pp0pp2pp4pp6pp8pp10pp 12pp 14ppSOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE 5Migration and moneyThe last few years saw significant movement in people and,by extension,capital.Notable standouts include net migration contributing 8.4%to Canadian population growth over 2019-2023,compared to 2.5%in the U.S.Without migration,population growth would have been only 0.7%in Canada and 0.8%in the U.S.The largest outflows of population came from India,Mexico,Russia,Syria,the Chi-nese Mainland,Bangladesh,Pakistan and Ukraine,driven by a variety of factors,including the search for better opportunities and security concerns.While migration results in a loss of human capital,it also generates substantial remittances,which serve as a lifeline for low-and middle-income communities in developing economies.According to the World Bank,remittances surged from$128 billion in 2000 to$857 billion in 2023,with an estimat-ed growth of 3%in 2024 and 2025.The top five remittance recipients are India,Mexico,the Chinese Mainland,Philippines and Pakistan.Remittances are particularly important in South Asia,accounting for over 6%of Sri Lanka GDP and 5%of Bangladesh GDP.Economic recovery and local financial re-forms are expected to sustain remittance growth in South Asia through 2025.In LAC,the U.S.-Mexico corridor is the worlds largest remittance pipeline,with 95%of remittances to Mexico coming from the U.S.,mainly from California and Texas.For lower-income households in Mexico,remittances constitute about a third of their income and are often essential for consumption.Remittances are also a vital component of GDP for many Caribbean and Central American countries.However,downside risks for remittances to LAC include a softening U.S.labor market and potential changes to immigration policies.There are cross currents for 2025.On the one hand,migration is likely to slow,particularly given changes in immigration policy in the U.S.and other developed economies.On the other hand,the con-tinued digitalization of the payments industry allows recipients to shift to digital and mobile channels,considerably reducing frictions and costs.Net migration 2019-2023Contribution to population growth5%0%-5%Population growth since 2019Australia0005222019202020212.5%3.5%4.8%3.3%2.1%7.3 2220231044GermanyUnited StatesPopulation growthNet migrationSOURCE:HAVER ANALYTICS,AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS,STATS NZ,OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS,CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE,UN POPULATION DIVISION,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE 6The SHEconomyIn the last several years,the global economy saw the“great resignation”turn into the“great return”.To varying degrees across countries,there has been a return of workers,particularly in the younger cohort and,interestingly,women.This is known as the SHEconomy.Examining data from the OECD,we find that the“cyclical”labor force participation rate,which mea-sures the percent of the population aged 25-54 that is working or looking for work,has exceeded its 2019 levels for women in 38 out of 46 countries in the sample,while only 23 out of 46 countries show a higher participation rate for men.Take India,which is a country of rapid labor force expansion and strong economic growth,the partic-ipation rate for women aged 25-54 is up 12 percentage points from 2019 to 2023,versus only a one percentage point gain for men of the same age.Even more starkly,in countries such as Chile,Turkey,South Africa and Finland,the female participation rate has increased,while the male participation rate has declined.There are several potential explanations for this phenomenon.For one,womens labor force participation is structurally lower compared to men globally,providing a longer runway for growth.More specific to this economic cycle,it likely reflects the disproportionate job creation in fe-male-dominated sectors such as healthcare and education.Additionally,the rise of remote work may benefit women,as it expands job opportunities and makes it easier to balance the demands of work and family life.Many of these dynamics are expected to remain true in 2025,leading MEI to antici-pate that this trend will persist.This increase in female participation is particularly important in advanced economies with low popula-tion growth.Greater participation in the workforce among young women will help counter the unfa-vorable demographics which,all else equal,reduce the size of the workforce.Labor force participation rate(Age 25-54)Change 2019 vs 2023FemaleMaleSOURCE:OECD LABOR FORCE SURVEY,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTECosta RicaRomaniaLatviaBrazilLithuaniaSloveniaGreeceSwitzerlandSouth AfricaNorwayGermanyGolombiaIcelandBelgiumCzechiaAustriaUnited StatesUnited KingdomSpainIsraelFranceHungaryFinland-6-5-4-3-2-1012-202468101214SwedenNetherlandsDenmarkPortugalChileCanadaBulgariaItalyCyprusNew ZealandKoreaJapanTurkeyLuxembourgMexicoAustraliaCroatiaaIrelandPolandEstoniaSlovakiaMaltaIndia7Policy PivotIn 2024,central bankers began steering monetary policy away from rate hikes toward cuts.In 2025,MEI expects to see the consequences of these policy shifts.The reduction in interest rates has been observed across the globe in 2024,with the European Central Bank(ECB)on track to deliver 150 basis points(bps)of rate reductions,the Bank of England(BoE)a total of 100bps,the Bank of Cana-da 150bps,the Reserve Bank of Australia 100bps and,importantly,the Federal Reserve(Fed)cuts of 100bps.The reduction in interest rates aims to fine-tune monetary policy,keeping the economy on a smooth track as inflation cools and labor markets adjust.Importantly,central banks are aiming to reduce rates from a restrictive level to a“neutral”level,rather than a stimulative one.This means that while interest rate reductions will support the economy through easier financial conditions,central banks are intentionally not planning to reduce rates to the point where inflation and economic growth would reaccelerate above equilibrium.Nonetheless,lower rates translate to lower borrowing costs,influenc-ing how consumers prioritize their purchasing power.At MEI,we have developed a framework to test the sensitivity of interest rate cuts to changes in the consumer basket.For simplicity,we focus on unanticipated policy shifts from the Federal Reserve and the spillover effects on other countries.In order to compare the relative sensitivities of various cate-gories of spending in the U.S.,Canada,and the U.K.to U.S.monetary policy surprises,MEI examined the impact of an unexpected 100bp cut in the Fed funds rate on overall financial conditions,which capture a combination of asset prices,interest rates,exchange rates and other market measures.MEI then analyzed the influence of changes in U.S.financial conditions on real spending growth over the next year in the U.S.,Canada and the U.K.As expected,the U.S.is more sensitive to changes in the Feds monetary policy than other coun-tries.However,MEI observes spillover effects through the financial conditions channel that influence spending trends in Canada and the U.K.These countries are likely to show heightened sensitivity to U.S.financial conditions,given their historically higher ratios of household debt to disposable income.Because of this,MEI expects almost twice as much growth for personal consumption in the U.S.than for the U.K.and Canada,one year after a surprise rate cut by Fed.In the case of Canada,being the country with the highest debt to disposable income ratio among the three of them,MEI expects the least consumption growth to occur.A consistent theme across the U.S.,Canada and the U.K.is increased spending on household applianc-es,electronics and computer software,driven by easier financial conditions in the U.S.Interestingly,the impact on travel differs by country.For instance,while easier financial conditions in the U.S.lead to a rise in international travel by Americans,a similar effect is not observed among travelers from the U.K.and Canada.It is important to underscore that this model is illustrative,designed to represent the sensitivity of the consumer basket to financial conditions often regarded as a key mechanism for implementing mone-tary policy.8Impact on YOY real consumption(%)from a 100bps U.S.Fed funds unexpected rate cut in a period of one yearUnited StatesCanadaPositive ImpactNegative Impact9United KingdomSOURCE:BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE10Trade tensionsMEI expects developments on U.S.trade policy to impact the economic outlook of most countries around the world.There has been discussion amongst the new U.S.administration to propose increas-ing tariffs on imports from the Chinese Mainland by 60%and tariffs on the rest of the world by 10%to 20%.In addition to the Chinese Mainland,countries most at risk are those with the largest share of goods exports heading to the U.S.relative to their total exports.Mexico and Canada are highly depen-dent on the United States,but as the revision of the USMCA approaches(“new NAFTA”trade agree-ment),their negotiation positions differ.These fresh trade risks emerge as global trade in goods is already facing headwinds from economic nationalism,supply chain reconfigurations and military conflicts.However,it is often overlooked that trade in services,where traditional tariffs do not apply,has continued to grow.This growth is driven by the rise of the digital economy and a shift in consumer preferences from goods to services,a trend that has been further reinforced by the pandemic.MEI expects that imposition of tariffs-and likely counter-tariffs-would serve as a downside to real global growth and an upside to inflation.Growth is likely to be further impacted by uncertainty that will weigh on investment until these policies become clearer.However,some impacts can be offset by greater intra-regional trade,a trend already underway,as well as by growing trade in data and in ser-vices,which can increase productivity and be deflationary.These potential benefits,however,will play out over a more extended period.Exports to the U.S.,%of totalNote:Size and color of the bubble denote share of exports to the U.S.11201420162018202020222024Exports to the US,%of total78.0y.0.0.0.0.0.0 1420162018202020222024Mexico8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5.0.5 1420162018202020222024Germany20142016201820202022202414.0.0.0 .0.0$.0&.0(.00.02.0%VietnamCanada72.0s.0t.0u.0v.0w.0 x.0y.0 1420162018202020222024SOURCE:IMF,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE14.0.0.0.0.0.0 .0%Chinese Mainland12United States:The laws of motionKey messages:Fundamentals for the U.S.economy are favorable,but external factors,most no-tably policy changes,could alter momentum.Lower interest rates will support activity in interest-sensitive sectors,as well as consumers and businesses that depend on financing.MEIs analysis of aggregated and anonymized zip-code-level data reveals that gains in discretionary spending are driven by higher income populations,a trend that could continue in 2025To quote Newton,“an object in motion remains in motion at constant speed and in a straight line un-less acted on by an unbalanced force.”This principle can be applied to the U.S.economy in 2025.MEI anticipates that policy changes will play a pivotal role in shaping the nations economic trajectory.On the one hand,MEI expects a positive boost from deregulation and its potential impact on sentiment.On the other hand,factors such as tariffs,shifts in immigration policy and heightened policy uncer-tainty could act as headwinds.Additionally,policies leading to an expanded deficit,including changes to the tax code,are likely to have a more pronounced impact on the economy in 2026 rather than 2025.The combination of the favorable handoff from 2024(MEI expects 2.8%real GDP growth in 2024)and expected policy changes leaves MEI to forecast 2.3%growth in real GDP in 2025.MEI expects CPI inflation of 2.7%and core CPI(ex-food and energy)inflation of 3.0%in 2025.It is important to emphasize that consumers are experiencing the economy in markedly different ways.Those who own homes and financial assets have benefited from significant increases in asset values since 2019,making them more likely to spend on discretionary goods and services.In contrast,other consumers face economic pressures,including elevated prices for essentials and high borrowing costs.MEIs analysis of aggregated and anonymized Mastercard data across the top 10%and bottom 20%of zip codes,ranked by income data from the Census Bureau,reveals the former outpacing in spend-ing on discretionary categories and travel and experiences.However,the gap in spending growth be-tween the top and bottom income cohorts on essentials is relatively narrow.We explore this differen-tial by state,which shows a more uniform spending picture across the country for essentials.Indeed,the economic narrative is not one-story fits all.In addition to carefully monitoring the policy environment,MEI is also focused on the path in the labor market.Job creation has moderated from its elevated levels at the start of 2024.While not our base case,if the hiring rate were to fall further,there is a risk of slowing net job growth and a further in-crease in the unemployment rate.This would impact wage growth and,therefore,consumption.Regional themes13Travel,entertainment and recreational services(2024 YTD versus 2023)Differential in spending growth between top 10%and bottom 20%income areasNon discretionary retail and services(2024 YTD versus 2023)Discretionary retail and services(2024 YTD versus 2023)SOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTETop 10%minus bottom 20Key messages:In 2025,MEI expects the Canadian economy to grow at a moderate pace as the benefits of lower interest rates and easing inflation offset the effects of slower population growth.Lower interest rates should alleviate household stress by reducing the burden of debt payments outpacing income growth.The economic trajectory differs across provinces,driven by housing conditions.MEI forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8%in 2025,slightly above the 2024 estimate of 1.6%.This modest uptick in growth reflects tailwinds expected to offset prevailing headwinds.On the upside,the Bank of Canada(BOC)is likely to continue cutting interest rates,reaching 2.75%by April 2025,as inflation aligns with its 2%target.MEI projects CPI inflation to ease to 2.1%year-over-year(YOY)in 2025,down from 2.5%in 2024.MEI expects that recently announced tax-relief measures will boost consumption growth in the first half of 2025.Lower rates are expected to promote job growth,stimulate consumer spending and re-vive activity in the housing market.Business investment is also likely to rise,supported by lower inter-est rates and the anticipated pickup in economic growth.However,MEI expects these tailwinds to be partially offset by elevated debt burdens,slower population growth and heightened policy uncertain-ty.Notably,Canadas GDP per capita has declined,signaling underlying economic challenges.The housing market remains a focal point due to the strain from elevated household debt.With debt payments outpacing income growth,consumers continue to feel the squeeze of past interest rate hikes.MEIs analysis of SpendingPulse insights,which track in-store and online retail sales across all payment methods,reveals robust consumer spending growth per capita in Quebec and the Maritimes between the first half of 2022 and the first half of 2024,contrasting with softness in BC and Ontar-io.This divergence stems from lower household debt-to-income ratios in Quebec and the Maritimes,while higher home prices in BC and Ontario have led to sharper increases in mortgage payments.Although lower rates should boost consumer spending overall,not all households will benefit equally.Consumers with five-year fixed rate mortgages renewing in 2025 will likely face higher debt pay-ments,further limiting their spending power.Beyond monitoring potential shifts in trade policy with the U.S.,Canadas largest trading partner,MEI is focused on population growth trends.While a slowdown in population growth may weigh on aggre-gate economic growth,it could also reduce pressure on shelter inflation.This would support continued real wage growth,boosting consumer purchasing power.Canada:Tailwinds stronger than headwinds15Change in core retail sales per capita(H1 2022 VS H1 2024)Change in mortgage payments(H1 2022 VS H1 2024)OntarioNova ScotiaAlbertaBritish ColumbiaSaskatchewanManitobaQuebecNew BrunswickNewfoundland and Labrador050100150200250300350400450500550600650700-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0Change in core retail sales per capita(H1 2022 vs H1 2024)Percent change in core retail sales per capita vs change in mortgage paymentsSOURCE:STATISTICS CANADA,CMHC,SPENDINGPULSE,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTEPercent change in retail sales per capita-2.52.116Key messages:MEI expects Brazils economy to slow down in 2025,after a period of overheating driven by fiscal policy.A more balanced outlook is anticipated as fiscal policy shifts to reduced stimulus,while higher rates help stabilize the economy.Consumer behavior in 2025 is likely to be more conservative,with higher rates and reduced fiscal transfers leading to softer consumption.Brazil is projected to shift toward slower,more sustainable growth in 2025 as the economy adjusts from a period of overheating.MEI projects real GDP growth at 2.0%for the year,down from around 3.0%in prior years when Brazil repeatedly surpassed expectations.While this can be considered good news,it has also led to a tighter labor market and increased the usage of available capacity,which now limits the pace of future growth.Additionally,fiscal policy has been overused,requiring adjust-ments.Inflation is signaling the need for correction.MEI projects inflation at 4.3%in 2025,following an esti-mated 4.7%in 2024 above the central banks target ceiling.Inflation tends to act as a thermometer of the economy;if its too high,policy adjustments are needed.With the inflation target at 3.0%and inflation running around 4.0%,more policies may be implemented to rebalance the economy.Regarding policies,MEI expects that the Brazilian central bank will continue to hike rates,while fiscal policy will be pressured to slow down.MEI forecasts central bank rates at 14%by May 2025(with risks of more hikes needed.)Assuming a deceleration in fiscal policy,there may be room for rates to re-turn to 13%by the fourth quarter in 2025.In terms of fiscal policy,a deceleration in spending growth is expected in 2025 after strong expansion in recent years.In such a scenario,consumers tend to become more conservative.For 2025,MEI forecasts a deceler-ation in private consumption from its previous steep growth(chart below),reflecting more expensive credit and less support from fiscal transfers.Consumers will likely absorb the impact of higher rates in the coming quarters,which should soften consumption of durable goods and non-essential services.Risks to the MEI forecast appear to be biased toward a more challenging outlook.On the positive side,a stronger harvest and faster macroeconomic policy adjustments could lower perceived risk,making the measures less costly and putting the economy in better shape by the end of 2025.On the more challenging side,smaller-than-needed fiscal adjustments could force the central bank to hike rates further,pushing growth to a softer pace and leading to a less organized adjustment.Brazil:Aiming to rebalance policies17SOURCE:HAVER,IMF,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE20222020201820162024201420129095100105110115120125130202220202018201620242014201280100120140160180BrazilColombiaReal private consumption indexed to 2010 average20222020201820162024201420128010012014016018020222020201820162024201420128010095105110120115125ChileArgentinaMexico20222020201820162024201420129010011012013014018Key messages:Countries in the region are expected to experience growth divergence in 2025 due to varying monetary and fiscal policy stances.Mexico and Central America will face potential impacts from changes in U.S.trade and migration policies.Fiscal policy will remain a key focus,with inflation serving as the primary thermom-eter of policy success.LAC is a truly diverse region,with countries at various stages of development and different global con-nections.Despite these differences,all countries in the region will face the consequences of local and global policies in 2025.Locally,economies such as Chile and Colombia are expected to benefit from lower interest rates,while policy uncertainty may slow growth in Peru and Mexico.Argentina should benefit from strong macroeconomic and microeconomic reforms,leading to a rapid growth rebound.Regarding inflation,the convergence debate will remain active.While inflation has been decelerating,most countries are yet to reach their targets for 2025.Perus inflation is at desired levels,while Mex-ico,Colombia and Chile are still in the process of convergence,with inflation hovering around 4%and aiming for 3%.In Argentina,the ongoing disinflation process is expected to continue as policy adjust-ments take effect.MEI projects inflation at 35%in 2025,down from 120%in 2024,with risks skewed toward even lower inflation.Inflation remains a key indicator of success and the pace of convergence will guide the next steps in fiscal and monetary policy.In LAC,fiscal policy performance will be a critical focus in 2025.While monetary policy is responding to inflation and could be adjusted if inflation stops converging(as seen in Brazils recent shift),fiscal policy will require attention in many countries.In Mexico,the new administration will need to balance increased social spending with fiscal consolidation and may need to rely on new sources of revenue.Colombia is likely to continue discussions on tax increases.Chile has maintained a more balanced fiscal policy.Argentina has made strong fiscal adjustments but faces the challenge of ensuring long-term sustainability.Furthermore,the region could benefit from the U.S.shift in focus towards the Chinese Mainland.While Mexico will likely be part of ongoing discussions about U.S.trade policy,the emphasis on reduc-ing the Chinese Mainlands importance could,after some negotiations,be beneficial to Mexico and other countries in the region.However,global exposure of the region and social pressure against fiscal adjustments could hurt growth prospects.The Chinese Mainlands economic deceleration,coupled with U.S.policy discussions on trade and migration,could impact different countries in the region differently.Chile and Peru are more closely connected to the Chinese Mainland,while Central America and Mexico are more tied to the U.S.(see trade chart below).Policy changes in the U.S.could affect Mexico and Central American countries through trade and remittances.In Mexico,changes to the judicial system may also negatively impact business confidence.Latin America and Caribbean(excluding Brazil):Dealing with the consequences19Share of export to Chinese Mainland and U.S.Chinese MainlandU.S.ColombiaMexico0 0 19201920202020202120212022202220232023 202420190 192019202020202020202120212021202220222022202320232023202420242024ArgentinaBrazilChileSOURCE:HAVER,MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE20Key messages:MEI expects lower interest rates and higher government spending to support growth.Rising trade tariff concerns may elevate business uncertainty and dampen invest-ment.Consumer spending is likely to strengthen,supported by wage growth and reduced savings rates.In 2024,the U.K.economy experienced a strong rebound from the technical recession in 2023 driv-en by domestic demand.The cost-of-living crisis subsided,with consumers benefiting from elevated wage growth.Unlike in many European countries,U.K.consumers real disposable incomes wage growth net of inflation have recovered to pre-pandemic levels and are projected to continue to grow further,albeit at a slower pace,in 2025.MEI forecasts real GDP growth of 1.2%in 2025,up from 0.9%in 2024.In 2025,MEI predicts U.K.households and businesses will continue to benefit from the Bank of En-glands(BoE)interest rate cuts that will further ease the mortgage squeeze and support investment.However,MEI expects the BoE to proceed more cautiously than other European central banks,cutting rates a cumulative 100bps in 2025.Not only is U.K.wage growth more stubborn,but MEI expects that the new governments inaugural budget,which delivered the biggest increase in spending,bor-rowing and taxation in post-war history,will increase inflation.MEI expects expansionary fiscal policy to support growth next year,though some of the gains may be offset by heightened trade uncertainty stemming from proposed tariffs on European exports by the incoming U.S.administration.The implementation of such tariffs remains a key downside risk to MEIs outlook.Despite purchasing power recovering to pre-pandemic levels,U.K.consumers have continued to save a higher proportion of their income compared to historic norms.According to MEI,lower interest rates should disincentivize some savings,thereby boosting household consumption.Similar to other Europe-ans,the Brits have also remained more price conscious during the period of elevated prices.However,as 2025 approaches,“trading down”behavior is giving way to a“trading up”mentality,with average transaction sizes increasing compared to last year,particularly in travel,hospitality and electronics.The chart below illustrates the YOY percentage change in average transaction size across spending categories,with bars representing each month from June to September 2024.United Kingdom:Government spending to outweigh trade uncertainty21United KingdomMonthly average ticket size growth-June-September 2024|%YOYSOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE-14%GroceryApparelJewelryElectronicsHome furniture and furnishiingsLodgingRestaurants and barsHomeimprovementcenters-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-4%-2%0%0%-4%-4%-5%-11%-2%1%-3%3%-2%-9%3%-12%-9%-9%-3%-4%-1%0%3%2%2%1%9%3%-3%4%2Key messages:MEI expects real GDP growth to accelerate,supported by declining interest rates,but remain soft as tighter fiscal policy and trade uncertainty will act as headwinds.MEI expects inflation to be close to target in most countries,but geopolitical risks and tightness in global liquified natural gas supplies pose upside risks.Consumer spending will benefit from a moderation in savings rates,reflecting domestic tailwinds.In 2024,European economies emerged from nearly two years of stagnation as the impact of the large inflationary shock faded.Lower inflation allowed central banks to start cutting interest rates,which MEI expects to continue in 2025,supporting the recovery.MEI predicts the European Central Bank(ECB)to cut rates by a cumulative 125bps to 1.75%in 2025.MEI expects Eurozone real GDP growth of 0.9%in 2025,up marginally from an estimated 0.8%in 2024.However,new headwinds to growth are expected.First,the re-introduction of EU fiscal rules means that several EU countries,including France and Italy,will need to cut government spending.The im-pact on GDP growth could be mitigated by the faster deployment of NextGen EU funds,particularly in southern and central and eastern Europe(CEE).Second,the new U.S.administration pledged im-plementing tariffs on European exports to the U.S.Even if the tariffs are delayed or only partially im-plemented,the increased uncertainty alone could delay investment decisions and boost precautionary savings among consumers.The full imposition of tariffs presents a key downside risk to MEIs outlook.Meanwhile,consumer fundamentals remain strong.Unemployment rates may edge up,but MEI ex-pects them to remain historically low.Real disposable income growth,the difference between wage growth and inflation,is likely to moderate but remain positive,meaning that consumer purchasing power will continue to grow.Furthermore,household savings rates,which remain elevated by histor-ical standards,are likely to moderate as interest rates fall.Despite strong fundamentals,consumers remain price-sensitive,opting for budget rather than premium products and services,a behavior that should gradually unwind as purchasing power improves.The chart below illustrates how price-sensi-tive European consumers shifted to cheaper options in 2024,such as in fashion and restaurants.MEI expects regional differences to persist.Uncertainty around trade policy will likely weigh more on manufacturing-heavy economies like Germany,whose car industry remains at the greatest risk of tariffs and less on services-driven southern European economies that may benefit from more U.S.tourists.MEI expects lower interest rates to reinvigorate housing markets and household consumption in the Nordics,where nearly all mortgages are at variable rates,with Nordic real GDP growth rising from 1.3%in 2024 to 1.7%in 2025.Household consumption will also drive growth in CEE,where real wage growth remains the strongest in the region,offsetting the uncertain trade outlook.MEI expects CEE real GDP growth to rise from 1.8%in 2024 to 3%in 2025.Europe:Fresh challenges23Price-sensitivity across categories3m to September 2024|YOY percentage point increase/decrease in premium apparel spending relative to budget apparelincrease/decrease in full-service restaurant spending relative to fast foodAustriaBelgiumCroatiaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandNetherlaandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited Kingdom-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123Italy-2.5-1.2-6.3-2.1-2.1-20.91.31.1-0.2-0.5-1.5-0.8-0.6-0.5-2.3-0.1-0.7-0.2-3.20.71.50.12AustriaBelgiumCroatiaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandNetherlaandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited Kingdom-5-4-1-30-2136254Italy0.4-1-1.9-1.7-0.2-0.7-0.9-1.2-1.2-3.4-4-0.3-1.1-1.3-0.60.41.3-41.84.80.10.1-2-4.124SOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTEincrease/decrease in cross-border t e spending relative to domestic t eAustriaBelgiumCroatiaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandNetherlaandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited Kingdom-6-5-1-40-31326-254Italy0.20.10-1.2-2.3-2.1-2.1-2.1-0.31.30.750.12.20.10.5-0.2-0.1-0.1-1.4-0.9-4.62.60.325Key messages:Continued investment,public and private,will underpin solid non-oil GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC).After progress on macroeconomic adjustment in Turkey and Egypt,both countries central banks will be able to lower policy rates in 2025,supporting economic growth next year and into 2026.Tourism is likely to remain a bright spot for the regions economies.In 2025,MEI expects real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.7%in the GCC,up from an estimated 1.8%in 2024,underpinned by robust non-oil economic activity and at least a partial recovery in oil produc-tion.Despite lower oil prices,diversification efforts should continue as governments leverage strong balance sheets to finance investment in infrastructure.Private sector investment should also benefit from lower interest rates,supporting employment and domestic consumption.Population growth remains an important driver of economic activity for the region and particularly private consumption,even if the pace moderates.Demographic changes such as higher female labor force participation will also help to drive consumption growth by increasing households disposable incomes.Economic growth in Turkey and Egypt is constrained by macroeconomic adjustments including tight fiscal and monetary policies.With inflation moderating,monetary policy should ease in 2025,allow-ing growth to gradually rebound;however,geopolitical event risk in the Middle East and Africa region remains elevated.According to the UN Tourism statistics,South Africas outlook has improved following the formation of the national unity government which reduced uncertainty and boosted confidence,albeit from low levels.An improved electricity supply is encouraging,but a more meaningful rebound in activity re-mains constrained by lack of investment and structural reforms.1MEI expects tourism to remain a bright spot for the region.The GCCs strong push to grow its tour-ism sector has made it one of the fastest growing destinations in the world.The strength of the USD-pegged currencies has also added to the demand for outbound travel also.Meanwhile,travel to Egypt has remained resilient and Turkey remains a favorite for European travelers.According to the UN Tourism statistics,South Africa is yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels,and tourism continues to represent a growth opportunity without capacity constraints seen in other countries.Middle East and Africa:Sustained growth1.As reported from the UN tourism data statistics26Domestic and cross border spending on Experience vs Things in destination economy(Relative to same time in 2019)ThingsExperienceQatarSaudi ArabiaUnited KingdomUnited States2020-100%00 0000 222024202020222024202020222024202020222024SOURCE:MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE27Chinese Mainland:Steering through uncertaintyKey messages:Official exit-entry immigration administration data highlights that there is still runway for travel recovery.MEI expects the Chinese Mainlands economy to stabilize at 4.5%in 2025,support-ed by increased policy stimulus.Consumer demand for domestic travel is likely to remain strong in 2025,while de-mand for discretionary goods is expected to stay weak.Re-escalating trade tensions could prompt the Chinese Mainland to intensify ef-forts to achieve greater economic and technological self-reliance.MEI expects the Chinese Mainlands economy to stabilize at 4.5%in 2025,driven by increased gov-ernment stimulus and more favorable base effects.However,there is a downside risk to this forecast if U.S.-Chinese Mainland trade tensions re-escalate.A potential U.S.decision to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60%could significantly weigh down the Chinese Mainlands exports to the U.S.,potentially reducing the Chinese Mainlands GDP growth by approximately 1.7 percentage points cumulatively during the 2025-2026 period.There are three key factors currently weighing on the Chinese Mainlands economy:(1)weak consum-er confidence,driven by rising concerns about job security and slower income growth;(2)a persistent housing market slowdown,with monthly housing sales falling by 60%from their peak in April 2021;and(3)disinflationary pressures,as the GDP output gap widened to-2.1%in the third quarter in 2024,eroding industrial profits and wage growth prospects for 2025.To counteract these pressures,the Chinese Mainland has introduced a series of stimulus measures since September 2024,including a 20bps cut to the seven-day reverse repo rate;a 50bps cut in the reserve requirement ratio(RRR);establishing a CNY 500bn swap facility for non-bank financial insti-tutions to borrow directly from the Peoples Bank of China(PBoC)to purchase stocks;and lowering the down-payment for second home purchases to a historic low of 15%.These pro-growth measures are expected to help stabilize the Chinese Mainlands economy in 2025,but a significant reacceleration remains unlikely due to fragile consumer sentiment and structural headwinds.A sustainable recovery in the Chinese Mainlands economy will require substantial struc-tural reforms to shift the country from an investment-and export-driven growth model to one fo-cused on consumption and innovation.Chinese consumer demand for domestic travel is expected to remain elevated in 2025,while the pace of international travel is likely to stay subdued due to budget constraints.The chart below shows our estimate of the Chinese Mainlands cross-border recovery rate based on official exit-entry immigra-tion administration data.Consumer demand for home appliances and electronics may see a modest improvement,supported by the governments trade-in policy.Demand for healthcare and education is expected to remain steady.However,the likelihood of a material rebound in the Chinese Mainlands discretionary consumption in 2025 appears low,given the moderate economic outlook.28Chinese Mainland cross-border travel recovery ratio, 2019 levelsOutbound tourist recoveryInbound tourist recoverySOURCE:EXIT-ENTRY IMMIGRATIONN ADMINISTRATIONQuarterRecovery percentage(%)Q4-2023Q3-2023Q2-2023Q1-20230255075100125Q1-2024Q2-2024Q3-202429Key messages:In 2025,Asia Pacifics(AP)growth is expected to align with 2024 levels,supported by lower inflation and interest rates.India is projected to remain the fastest growing major economy,both regionally and globally.MEI expects consumers to allocate more spending toward discretionary items,with travel continuing to be a priority.2025 is set to be a year of discovering what normal looks like for economies that have been swinging around wildly since 2020.Many AP economies are likely to experience a slight pickup in GDP growth,though the Greater Chinese Mainland is likely to remain on a softening path.By comparison,India is likely to outperform,being less exposed to global demand and more driven by the structural rise of the middle class and investment.See the chart below for more insights on the overperformers versus underperformers in the region.MEI also anticipates Malaysias economy will outperform in 2025,driv-en by a robust labor market and strengthening investment(projected 4.7%GDP growth with upside risks).MEI expects consumer spending across AP in aggregate to remain resilient,supported by tight la-bor markets and a catch-up in inflation-adjusted wages.This trend is likely to be driven by declining inflation,while wage growth remains solid.This is especially the case in Australia,New Zealand and Singapore,where inflation is expected to ease to around 2-3%following more significant price shocks.By contrast,the Chinese Mainland,Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan experienced less price volatility.For additional details,refer to the Chinese Mainland section.Meanwhile,expected lower interest rates in 2025 should bring some relief for households burdened by debt,freeing up consumers to shift some spend to discretionary goods and services.MEI expects interest rates to continue to fall,indicating an easing of monetary policy,with 100bps rate cuts likely from central banks in Australia and New Zealand,as well as rate cuts across most of north and south-east Asia.Japan is likely to be the main exception,as the Bank of Japan(BOJ)is signaling the need to keep raising rates to fight inflation.As seen in other regions which exited from pandemic restrictions earlier,MEI expects AP travel trends to remain robust.The key factor to watch will be the extent to which labor markets stay strong.There is more room for recovery of outbound tourism from NE Asia,as Japans exchange rate regains some of its multi-year losses and as the Chinese Mainlands outbound passenger recovery continues.Ac-cording to IATA data from the UN Tourism Tracker,most other markets have already seen a full recov-ery of outbound tourism.Compared to the volumes of 2019 the total passenger demand recovery in AP was still 12low 2019 levels as of mid-2024.The main risks to keep an eye on in the region include the potential for higher oil prices to drive an unwelcome rise in headline inflation,as well as trade-related issues in a region highly exposed to global trade.Asia Pacific:Divergent paths back to normal30GDP and Consumption|Indexed to 2019=100Seasonally adjusted,real,local currencyEconomyGDP growth-latest available,year-on-yearIndia6.7%Malaysia5.3%Philippines5.1%Indonesia5.0%Sri Lanka4.7%Chinese Mainland4.3%Singapore4.1%Taiwan3.9%Thailand2.9%Hong Kong SAR1.8onomyPCE growth-latest available,year-on-yearIndia7.6%Philippines5.0%Indonesia5.0%Malaysia4.8%Sri Lanka4.2%Thailand3.4%Singapore6.4%Taiwan2.7%South Korea1.3%Japan0.7%SOURCE:IATA DATA FROM THE UN TOURISM TRACKER31Seeing around the cornerFollowing a successful 2024,the global economy sets course for another year of expansion,shaped by shifting fiscal and monetary policies.As the business cycle matures,the structural forces that have shifted the landscape will become more apparent,helping to define the new landing place for econo-mies across the globe.There is uncertainty surrounding the impact of policy changes in the U.S.,which includes a substantial agenda covering immigration restrictions,tariffs,taxes,deficit expansion and deregulation.While some of these policies may support growth,others could constrain it and contribute to inflation.Many proposals remain too underdeveloped to incorporate into a forecast,but our perspective will continue to evolve as the policy direction becomes clearer and as our data captures emerging trends.32About the Mastercard Economics InstituteDisclaimerThe Mastercard Economics Institute provides insights into global and local economic trends using advanced analytics and Mastercards proprietary data assets.Established in 2020,MEI supports businesses,governments,and policymakers with economic monitoring services and timely analysis on economic themes including consumer spending,retail and travel trends,and other local and global ba-rometers of economic performance.MEI offers valuable perspectives to inform decision-making and promote sustainable growth worldwide through our thought leadership series,and through Master-cards specialized product offerings.2024 Mastercard International Incorporated.All rights reserved.This Mastercard Economics Institute presentation(This“Presentation”)and content or portions thereof may not be accessed,downloaded,copied,modified,distributed,used or published in any form or media,except as authorized by Mastercard.This presentation and content are intended solely as a research tool for informational purposes and not as investment advice or recommendations for any particular action or investment and should not be relied upon,in whole or in part,as the basis for decision-making or investment purposes.This presentation and content are not guaranteed as to accuracy and are provided on an“as is”basis to authorized users,who review and use this information at their own risk.This presentation and content,including estimated economic forecasts,simulations or scenarios from the Mastercard Economics Institute,do not in any way reflect expectations for(or actual)Mastercard operational or financial performance.Notes&Disclaimer

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2025 World Economic Outlook The World Faces Trump 2.0January 17,2025*Translated from the original Japanese version released at the end of December 2024(slightly modified)Table of Contents22025 World Economic Outlook1.Real GDP Forecast(p.4)2.Trump 2.0:Policies and Impacts(pp.5-9)3.Chinas Economic Slowdown(p.10)4.Commodity Market(p.11)5.Risk Scenarios(p.12)2025 World Economic Outlook3Global growth is expected to slow down to 3.0 percent in 2025 alongside Trump 2.0Global Economy Set to Slow Down41.Real GDP ForecastComposition of each region/group is based on IMF.Global shares are calculated based on purchasing power parity(PPP).Source:Marubeni Institute(Actual:IMF)Real GDP Growth Forecast(YoY,%)Global economic growth in 2025 is expected to be 3.0%,down from 3.1%in 2024.While lower inflation and gradual monetary easing will support economic growth,further global fragmentation will significantly weigh on the global economy.The policies of the new US President Trump,the most important factor in 2025,will inject more uncertainty not only in the US but also in the global economy as a whole.Although Trumps trade policies will likely hit the Chinese economy most significantly,other trading partners in the existing value chains will also be affected negatively.Sentiments for trade and investment stagnates as uncertainty deepen,which could make global economic growth much lower.Inflation continues to contract worldwide,but disinflation pace in the US will be slower due to the impact of additional tariffs as well as concerns about labor supply related to new immigration policies.The Federal Reserve Board should become more cautious on monetary easing,while the European Central Bank will keep on lowering its policy rate.The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates,but the range of rate hikes will be limited amid a lackluster economic recovery.Among developed economies,the US economy will be slowing,but sustain a rather high growth rate,mainly due to a base effect.While the recovery in the European economy weakens,Japans economic growth will rebound from the contraction in 2024.As for emerging economies,Chinas growth will be slower due to the worsening relations with the United States.ASEAN and other economies which have strong ties to China will also come under downward pressure amid weaker external demand.On the other hand,economies led by domestic demand,such as India,will maintain a relatively robust growth pace.Commodity prices are set to decline mainly due to weaker demand caused by the global economic slowdown,particularly in China.Risks to the baseline scenario are generally tilted to the downside,including greater-than-expected global fragmentation,recurring inflation,turmoil in regional conflicts,and serious debt crises in fragile economies.Global Share20232024202520262023(%)ActualEstimate Forecast ForecastWorld1003.33.13.02.9Advanced Economies40.71.71.71.61.5United States15.02.92.82.22.0Euro Area11.90.40.80.70.9United Kingdom2.20.30.90.90.9Japan3.51.70.31.00.6(FY)-0.80.20.80.5Emerging Market and Development Economies59.34.44.23.93.9China18.75.24.84.23.9India7.97.76.86.56.3ASEAN-55.14.04.54.24.2Emerging and Developing Europe7.83.33.22.02.2Latin America and the Caribbean7.32.22.12.32.4Middle East and Central Asia7.32.12.43.73.7Sub-Saharan Africa3.23.63.64.04.1Overall,Trump 2.0 has a negative impact on both US and global economies in 2025Trump 2.0:Baseline Scenario52.Trump 2.0:Policies and Impacts Assessment of the impact on the US and global economiesMain Scenario in 2025US EconomyGlobal EconomyTariffAdditional tariffs on China:Average 60%to be implemented in the first half of 2025Universal additional tariffs:Average 10%will be implemented in the second half of 2025China retaliates by restricting exports of critical minerals and adding US companies to the Entity List.The EU imposes additional tariffs as a countervailing measure.Japan and other countries avoid direct retaliation while negotiating with the US.ImmigrationHalf a million illegal immigrants are deported each year*Pew Research estimate(24/7):As of 2022,there are 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States of which 8.3 million are employed.TaxThe following will be implemented in 2025:Extension of the Trump Tax Cuts of 2017(TCJA)(which expires at the end of 2025)Corporate tax cuts(21 %,15%for companies manufacturing in the US)De-regulationThe following deregulation measures were implemented in 2025:Relaxation of emission regulations for thermal power generation and automobiles Relaxation of methane emission regulations LNG exports Resumption Postponement of the implementation of the final international banking regulations(Basel III)(originally scheduled for July 2025)Climate ChangeThe following will be implemented in 2025:Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement Cancellation of unimplemented funds from the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),amendments to the EV tax credit,etc.Total(Economy)US:Effects of tax cuts and deregulation are limited while Tariffs and immigration restrictions weigh on economy.World:Additional tariffs hurt global trade and Chinese economic sentiment(Inflation)US:Additional tariffs,tightening labor market due to immigration restrictions has an upward inflation pressure.World:Strong dollar puts upward pressure on import prices in some countries while global economic slowdown puts downward pressure on prices(positive)(negative)Source:Marubeni InstituteSpillover from the US economySpillover from the US economySpillover from US economy and impacts on neighboring countriesDownward pressure on international trade and the Chinese economyCautious stance on decarbonization investmentsAdditional tariff policies put downward pressure on businessInflationary pressures and increased burden on companiesDecreasing labor supplyReducing corporate tax burdenExpansion of the energy industry,etc.Renewable energy business(-)/Fossil fuel business( )The effects of tax cuts and deregulation are limitedThe re-election of the US President Trump is the most important factor for the global economy in 2025.Below is our assumption on Trump 2.0s policies along with our evaluation on the impact of these policies over both the US and global economies.While the effect of supporting the economy is limited in 2025,fiscal concerns may keep interest rates highIncreased corporate value,rising stock prices,investment stimulation,supporting personal consumption(US)Improving corporate performance and investment/supporting employment(US)Interest rates remain high due to the rise of concerns about worsening governments finance(US)Spillover from US economy(World)Tariffs will raise import prices in the United States,while possible disruption over the trade of intermediate goods will damage the export industry.Immigration policies will put pressure on the U.S.economy in the medium term from both the direct impact on production due to labor shortage,and the upward pressure on prices through raising wages.These impacts are not limited to the United States,but will spread to closely related economies.Tax cuts and deregulation have a certain effect in supporting the US economy,but if there is a significant cut in government spending,the positive effect may be partially canceled out.On the other hand,there remains a risk of fiscal loosening,and there is a possibility that interest rates will remain high.Trump 2.0 will damage the US economy in the medium to long term and go against global climate control trendsTrump 2.0:Pathways of Impact on Economy and Industry62.Trump 2.0:Policies and ImpactsTaxThe negative impact of rising prices in the U.S.is spreading overseasSwitching of suppliers and disruption of domestic and international logistics(US/World)Rising import prices put downward pressure on consumption(US)Rising intermediate product prices put pressure on corporate performance(US)Retaliatory tariffs by other countries(US/World)Deteriorating performance of export industries,particularly agriculture and energy sectors(US)International trade stagnates(World)Sentiment worsens in exporting countries(esp.developing countries)(World)Economic slowdown caused by labor shortage due to tighter immigration policy spreads overseasLabor supply declines in sectors employing large numbers of illegal immigrants(US)Labor shortage leads to lower production,investment,and further reduction in productivity(US)Rising labor costs and potential upward pressure on prices(US)Domestic economic slowdown spreads to neighboring countries(World)Positive impact from reduced corporate costs and increased exportsCost reductions in related sectors(energy,automobiles,finance)(US)Energy(esp.LNG)exports increase(US/World)Expansion of cryptocurrency market(US)Lowering prices and economic support(US)Positive impact of the US economy on other countries(World)Reconsidering policies on Climate change and fossil fuelsIRA-related cases stalled or stopped(US)Climate change investment and employment stagnate(US)Energy Stocks Rise(US)Auto manufacturing performance improves(US)Downward effect on energy prices(US)Climate change investments stagnate in various countries(World)MajorPoliciesInflation 12 10 8 6 4 202420202021202220232024米国圏日本(%)Policy Rate(real)Policy Rate(nominal)1012345620202021202220232024米国圏日本(%)TighteningEasingTrumps main pledges&Impact on pricesTax cutsCustoms DutiesImmigra-tionEnergyMaking Trumps tax cuts permanent,lowering corporate tax rates,etc.(Boosting demand)General tariffs(10-20%),tariffs on China(60%),etc.(Pushing up import costs)Restrictions on entry of illegal immigrants,deportation of illegal immigrants,etc.(Shortage of goods supply,pushing up labor costs)Deregulation of oil and gas production,etc.(Energy prices pushed down)Trump 2.0 will keep inflation higher than expected and slow the pace of rate cutsInflation and Monetary Policies72.Trump 2.0:Policies and ImpactsIn most countries,inflation rates are expected to gradually decline toward their central bank targets as economies slowdown.The United States,on the other hand,will likely face relatively sticky inflation due to the policies proposed by President Trump and an unexpectedly robust domestic economy.Although the level of inflation will not reach to that of 2022,tighter labor markets will keep inflation higher than expected.The US will continue to cut interest rates towards the neutral interest rate,but the pace will be slow in order to assess the impact of Trumps policies on prices and employment.The ECB will cut interest rates faster amid growing concerns about an economic downturn.On the other hand,Japan will raise interest rates but only cautiously due to uncertainty of the economic situation.Real interest rates,which are nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate,are declining gradually in Europe and the US,but a tightening environment will continue,while Japan is expected to maintain an accommodative environment for the time being.*Inflation indicator:(US)PCE deflator,(Euro area)HICP,(Japan)CPI.Real policy interest rate is the policy interest rate minus inflation rate(YoY).The dotted line shows neutral interest rate caluculated by the central banks(there is a range of estimated values and it is not a uniquely determined value in reality).Sources:BEA,Eurostat,FRB,ECB,Bank of Japan,Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.202468101220202021202220232024米国圏日本(YoY,%)2%targetUSEuroJapanUSEuroJapanUSEuroJapanTrump 2.0 will accelerate the change in the flows of global trade and investmentTrade and Investment2.Trump 2.0:Policies and Impacts0246102030401990199520002005201020152020輸出額直接投資受入額（右軸）*Arrows:Trend linesSource:Macrotrends,UNCTAD,IMF,Marubeni InstituteGlobal exports and direct investment(Nominal GDP ratio,%)(Same as left)*Measures include tariffs,import quota,export controls,export subsidies,etc.,which the source judges to be harmful.Source:Global Trade AlertTrade and investment intervention measures(Number of installations)*Top 10 countries exporting to the U.S.in 2023,excluding China:Mexico,Canada,Germany,Japan,South Korea,Vietnam,Taiwan,India,IrelandSource:ITCChanges in trade flows*Down arrow indicates downward pressureSource:Marubeni Institute Major trade policies of the new US administrationIn recent years,amid the US-China trade war,the COVID-19 pandemic,and the Russia-Ukraine war,the ratio of global trade to GDP has stagnated,while foreign direct investment to GDP has also declined.Under the new US administration,it is likely that the fragmentation of the international community and the disruption of global trade and investment flows will accelerate.US imports from China have already declined due to high tariffs(around 20%on most imports)which has been already implemented since 2018.If an additional 60%tariff is implemented,imports are likely to fall further.Strict anti-circumvention measures will likely be implemented on countries like Mexico and Vietnam,which will make related trade decline as well.It is well recognized that China has huge excess production capacity that far exceeds domestic demand,and if access to the US market is restricted,it may intensify its aggressive export to other markets which could cause other trade conflicts.ChinaUSThird Country(77.7)( 577.7)( 297.3)20172023Billion(USD)02,0004,0006,0008,00020092011201320152017201920212023中国米国他MeasuresGlobal TradeGlobal FDITariffs60%on China10%of the worldMeasures on export circumventionMexico,Canada,etc.ExportControlAdvanced Technology,Mainly ChinaInvestmentRegulationMainly ChinaOther issuesCurrency manipulator,revocation of MFN status,etc.Mainly China8Mainly ChinaMainly ChinaChinaUSOthersExportFDI(right)Baseline(Japan and the US economy,inflation,and monetary policy)US interest rate cut,Japan interest rate hike Japan-US interest rate gap shrinks Buy yen,sell dollarsDollar DepreciationTariffsIntroduction of additional tariffsRising import prices Inflation Feds pace of interest rate cuts slowsDollar AppreciationPressureImmigrationDeportation of illegal immigrant workersLabor shortage wage increases rising corporate costs worsening performance of US companies weak dollarDollarDepreciationPressureTax cutsCorporate tax cuts(Economic stimulus)Increased demand Inflation(Increase of US financial risk)Selling of government bonds Rising US interest ratesDollar AppreciationPressureDe-regulationDeregulation of fossil fuel businessesAs the United States becomes a net exporter of crude oil,the relationship between crude oil prices and the dollar becomes more complicated.This has an impact on domestic prices in the United States,but the impact on the exchange rate is neutral.NeutralTotalThe economic and inflationary trends in Japan and the United States,and the accompanying direction of monetary policy,aim for a stronger yen and a weaker dollar,but Trumps policies are generally creating stronger pressure for the dollar.LimitedDollar DepreciationThe pace of JPY appreciation will be slower than expected due to Trump 2.0FX Market(JPY/USD)92.Trump 2.0:Policies and ImpactsThe underlying economic and inflationary trends in Japan and the US,and the accompanying revisions to monetary policy,tend to strengthen the yen and weaken the dollar through narrowing the Japan-US interest rate gap.Trumps policies including additional tariffs,however,will raise concerns about high inflation in the US and slow the pace of interest rate cuts by Federal Reserve Board(FRB).Although President Trumps priority of reducing trade deficit implies reversal of dollar appreciation,the policies he advocates indicate pressure for a stronger dollar on the contrary.JPY/USD and*Rate gap:US 2-year bond yield-JP 2-year bond yieldSource:LSEG01234561001101201301401501601702022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/102024/12024/42024/72024/10円2年物金利差(右軸)JPY Depreciation(JPY/USD)JPYAppreciationJPY DepreciationJPYAppre-ciationImpact of Trump policies JPY/USD and Trump 2.0Source:Marubeni InstituteJPYDepreciationJPYAppreciation(22/2)Fed begins interest rate hike(23/4)Mr.Ueda becomes BOJ Governor(24/7)BOJ interest rate hike(24/9)Fed interest rate cut(22/12)Fed reduces interest rate hike(23/9)Fed stops raising interest rates(%points)JPY/USDRate gap(right)024682000200420082012201620202024対米輸入額対米貿易黒字額対米輸出額First Trump AdministrationSecond Trump Administration(Expected)China tariffs20%for most imports60%for all imports(Early after assuming office)China RetaliationRetaliatory tariffsTargeted tariffs,yuan depreciation,export subsidy,export restrictions on critical minerals,etc.Trade DealPhase One trade deal in 2020Unlikely to reachGoods related to Climate ChangeLimited impact due to Chinas immature supply chainSignificant impact due to Chinas reliance on climate change measures&goodsInfluence on ChinaRelatively smallSignificantly higher than the last timeTrump tariffs will be the biggest downside factor while the room for Chinese policy narrowsChina in trouble3.Chinese Economic SlowdownSource:General Administration of Customs of China,National Bureau of Statistics Chinas trade with US(%of nominal GDP,USD)Source:Marubeni InstituteImpact of Trump tariffs*2024 to 2026:Marubeni Research Institute forecastSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China Real GDP growth rate(YoY,%)0408012020002004200820122016202020242028IMF推計：地方政府関連債務公式統計：地方政府公式統計：中央政府IMF：公的債務残高*The 14.3 trillion yuan of local government-related debt announced in November 2024 is included in local government debt for 2023.Source:IMF,Ministry of Finance of ChinaPublic debt outstanding(%of nominal GDP)Chinas exports to the US(share of nominal GDP)have declined through the period which included the first Trump administration.They recovered once after the COVID-19 pandemic,but again fell to 2.8%in 2023.China is expected to retaliate against Trumps tariffs in a way that does not hurt its own economy seriously,such as imposing retaliatory tariffs limited to US agricultural products and devaluing the yuan.Nevertheless,if the announced high tariffs and restrictions on indirect exports are implemented,the negative impact on the Chinese economy is likely to be much greater than last time.In China,government debt(share of nominal GDP)has doubled over the past 10 years,due in part to the accumulation of past economic measures and the room for stimulus with additional government spendings is now much narrower than ever.Partly affected by Trumps tariffs,Chinas real GDP growth is expected to depreciate to below 4%YoY in the coming couple of years,which makes Chinas real challenge to manage economic policies while avoiding fiscal risks.5.2 4.8 4.2 3.9 012345678910201820192020202120222023202420252026実質GDP成長率政府目標101st Trump Admin.Import from USTrade surplusExport to USReal GDP growthGov.targetLocal Gov.relatedLocal Gov.Central Gov.Public debtDownward pressure continues from lacking demand and more than ample supplyFurther decline in commodity prices114.Commodity MarketCommodity Price Index(Note)Each index is based on the World Banks classification and is composed of all commodities;coal,crude oil and natural gas;agricultural products such as beverages,food and timber;and base metals,iron ore and precious metals.Source:World Bank,Commodity Market Outlook,October 2024Commodity prices are expected to remain under downward pressure into 2025,falling to their lowest levels since 2020 for most goods.With ample inventory and supply capacity for major commodities,selling pressure is increasing due to a lack of demand caused by the slowdown in global economic growth,particularly the slump in the Chinese economy.In spite of more than ample supply globally,trade fragmentation may weaken the price adjustment function across economic blocs,which may induce localized price hikes.Note that price sensitivity to the changes in situations such as the Middle East situation(crude oil),Russia-Ukraine situation(natural gas and grains),and U.S.-China relations(all products)may increase.Major factors for commodity marketEnergyGeopolitical risks(Middle East,Russia and Ukraine)Without actual supply chain disruption,the impact will be limitedOPEC out of step,production cuts eased(crude oil)How long can OPEC tolerate non-OPEC production increases?US energy policy(LNG,fossil fuels,renewable energy)-Policy to strengthen development and export of fossil fuelsShortage of demand due to decarbonization(fossil fuels)metalChinas economic downturn The countrys policies(economic stimulus measures,measures to curb excess production capacity)US-China relations(Chinas imports shrink ,exports shrink )FoodWeather(especially in North and South America,Russia):Good harvest La Nia expected to weaken in early spring in the Northern HemisphereRussia-Ukraine War(decrease in exports from the Black Sea coast)The effects of war and weather have made the conditions for growing crops along the Black Sea coast the worst theyve ever been.US-China relations(Chinas imports shrinking )40608010012014016020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026総合農産品金属*Arrows:the direction in which prices will be affected.*Bold:Factors to be particularly focused on in 2025.Source:Marubeni Institute(2010=100)TotalAgricultureEnergyMetalsUncertainty over U.S.policy is the biggest issueRisks Tilted to the Downside5.Risk ScenariosDownside ScenarioUpside ScenarioEscalation beyond expectationsIn response to the large-scale tariff hikes by the US,major countries will take more aggressive retaliatory measures.The US is to set even higher tariffs on those countries that do not offer favorable terms to the US in their deals.Sudden turbulenceThe pace of interest rate cuts will slow as inflation concerns resurface in the U.S.The Chinese economy will deteriorate sharply due to Trump tariffs,while policy room has been narrowed by the housing slump and years of economic stimulus measures.In emerging countries,economic uncertainty is growing as a result of factors such as higher U.S.tariffs and a strong dollar,which are causing capital outflows from countries that are highly dependent on the U.S.or have weak fundamentals.Trade DecouplingEconomy,FinanceGeopoliticsFurther prolonged conflictsRussia,seeing the stagnation of US support and the decline of morale on the Ukrainian side,will step up its offensive against Ukraine.Ceasefire talks are proving difficult,and instability continues in the surrounding region.the Middle East,Israel may intensify its offensive against neighboring countries.Anti-Iran hardliners are gaining a voice within the U.S.administration,escalating conflict with Iran.Risks to maritime traffic increases.Non-Inverventionism brings“Peace without Justice”President Trump,who is reluctant to intervene militarily overseas,is to urge various countries to seek ceasefires and resolve regional conflicts,easing geopolitical risks in Russia,Ukraine and the Middle East.A robust US economy overcomes several negative factorsMost of the tariff hike will be absorbed by corporate efforts,and a serious resurgence of inflation can be avoided.Major countries continue to lower interest rates as disinflationary trends returned.Uncertainty pertaining to the Trump risk will also be gradually resolved.Pragmatic“Tariff Man”The United States will postpone raising tariffs depending on the“deals”reached with each country.As for China,the impact on the domestic economy will be reduced by adjusting the tariff rates and on specific items.Each country will maintain a passive stance on retaliation in order to avoid tit-for-tat measures with the United States.121-4-2 Otemachi,Chiyoda-ku,Tokyo 100-8088 Japan https: material was created based on publicly available information and as such Marubeni Institute cannot guarantee the accuracy,correlation or thoroughness of this material.Any conclusions made or action taken based on the contents of this material is strictly up to the discretion of the user of this material with all outcomes the sole responsibility of the user and not that of Marubeni Institute.The content of this material may be subject to change without prior notification.All pictures,illustrations,written content,etc.(subsequently referred to as“information”)in this material are the sole property(copyright)of Marubeni Institute,protected under the Copyright Law of Japan and the Berne Convention,etc.Individual private usage and citation are allowed under the copyright law,however,without the express written permission of the copyright holder the copying,distribution,translation,alteration,adaptation,public transmission and/or preparing to transmit the information in this document will be considered a violation of the copy right law.

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