行业分析报告-PDF版

魔镜洞察：健康趋势下的食品饮料包装（2023）（33页）.pdf

魔镜洞察 Moojing Market Intelligence健康趋势下的食品饮料包装SPEAKER：魔镜分析师团队DATE：2023年9月魔镜洞察 数据说明2数据来源：本报告中数据，如无特殊说明，.

2023-10-30 33页 5星级

食品饮料行业：拥抱变化顺势而为-231022（52页）.pdf

分析师分析师联系人联系人王泽华王泽华登记编号：S1220523060002薛涵薛涵登记编号：S1220523060005毛学东毛学东拥抱变化，顺势而为食 品 饮 料 团 队食 品 饮 料 团 队 年 .

2023-10-25 52页 5星级

食品饮料行业调味品专题：清理包袱蓄势调整-231021（16页）.pdf

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2023 年 10 月 21 日 推荐推荐（维持）（维持）调味品专题调味品专题 消费品/食品饮料 上半年受餐饮复苏节奏，及去库存影响，龙头海天为代.

2023-10-24 16页 5星级

FBIF：2023-2024食品饮料创新报告（75页）.pdf

03乳品创新一、液奶：稳中求变（一）白奶与刚需营养（二）酸奶与克制放纵（三）乳饮与极致体验二、奶酪“中国化”（一）奶酪棒之外（二）色香味之外（三）乳品之外三、全家营养01全体大会一、效率vs.韧性的辩.

2023-10-18 75页 5星级

蝉魔方：2023食品饮料行业轻健康趋势分析报告（35页）.pdf

点击查看更多蝉魔方：2023食品饮料行业轻健康趋势分析报告（35页）.pdf精彩内容。

2023-10-11 35页 5星级

食品饮料行业：白酒经营有韧性大众品短期承压-230908（24页）.pdf

20232023 年年 0909 月月 0808 日日 证券研究报告证券研究报告|行业行业研究研究|行业专题行业专题 请阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 食品饮料食品饮料投资评级投资评级 同步大市同步.

2023-09-12 24页 5星级

CGA：2023澳大利亚食品饮料脉搏报告（英文版）（30页）.pdf

CGA by NIQ Pulse+Reportshttps:/ INSIGHTSTOTAL US MARKET SALES:RECAPSOURCE:BEVERAGETRAK$-$10,000$20,0.

2023-09-08 30页 5星级

食品饮料行业中期行业策略报告：食品饮料行业2023H1中报总结审时求变聚势谋远-230905（50页）.pdf

行 业 研 究 2023.09.05 1 敬请关注文后特别声明与免责条款 食 品 饮 料 中 期 行 业 策 略 报 告 审时求变，聚势谋远 食品饮料行业 2023H1 中报总结 分析师 王泽华 登记.

2023-09-07 50页 5星级

食品饮料行业：分化加剧白酒靓丽-230904（37页）.pdf

2 bUoPzQxOmPbU9PaO8OtRqQsQpMeRmMyRkPnNtObRpOnNxNpOsNwMpOyQ3/3/CONTENTS0102030405 4/4 5 6 7-20%0%20%.

2023-09-06 37页 5星级

食品饮料行业：低度酒的底层逻辑-230904（24页）.pdf

低度酒的底层逻辑低度酒的底层逻辑证券研究报告|行业专题报告食品饮料行业行业评级：强于大市（维持评级）2023年9月4日请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明证券分析师：分析师刘畅执业证书编号：S02105230.

2023-09-06 24页 5星级

食品饮料行业消费传奇系列报告二：穿越周期的力量（食品饮料）-230830（40页）.pdf

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 摘要：消费传奇系列报告是国泰君安消费大组携手七位行业首席联合撰写的全球消费标杆企业深度报告，旨在探寻全球最优秀消费品企业的成功之道。本报告的研究对象均为各行各业的龙头.

2023-08-31 40页 5星级

英国食品饮料联合会：2023Q2英国食品饮料行业状况报告（英文版）（8页）.pdf

Food and Drink Federation|6th Floor|10 Bloomsbury Way|London WC1A 2SL|Tel: 44(0)20 7836 2460|www.fdf.org.uk Registered office as above.Registered in London with limited liability.Certificate of Incorporation no.210572.VAT number:761253541.The Food and Drink Federation seeks to ensure that information and guidance it provides are correct but accepts no liability in respect thereof.Such information and guidance are not substitutes for specific legal or other professional advice.State of Industry Report Q2 2023 Executive summary The FDF net confidence score gained 18 percentage points in Q2,reaching-12%,reflecting perceptions that market conditions have stabilised.Labour shortages continued to fall in Q2 to 4.8%,down from 5.9%in Q1,however vacancies persist across all skill levels.During the year to June(Q3 2022 Q2 2023),output lost due to labour shortages is estimated to be 1.4bn,while the loss for Q2 2023 is assessed at 192m.Reported total cost increases facing manufacturers in the year to June were 17.8%,while selling price rises were less at 15.4%.Its expected that costs will continue to rise over the next year by 3.1%,and prices by 2.7%,on average.Innovation is a top priority for 54%of manufacturers,while 41%focus on adapting supply chains and restructuring operations.More than 78%of the UKs biggest suppliers believe government plans for UK-wide not for EU product labelling will drive up costs and should be scrapped.Manufacturers are committed to growth,with 49%planning to increase their capital investment expenditure over the coming 12 months.Contents Industry outlook Growth pressures on the horizon.2 Industry confidence Businesses see improved conditions.3 Workforce The ongoing challenge of labour shortages.4 Costs Uncertain energy prices .5 Investment Manufacturers aim to adapt supply chains.6 About our survey Who responded?.7 Authors Dr.Liliana Danila Lead Economist FDF Uros Milosevic Economic Analyst FDF Read more from FDF business insights and economics Prices dashboard Inflation commentary Trade snapshots Industry facts and stats FDF State of Industry Q2 2023 Page 2 Growth pressures on the horizon Food and non-alcoholic drink annual inflation slowed for the fourth consecutive month in July,reaching 14.9%,down from 17.4%in June,the sharpest drop in annual inflation yet.On the month,prices rose by 0.1%.Prices of sugar and olive oil were considerably higher than last year(Chart 1),while most other categories saw double-digit inflation.ONS reported costs facing manufacturers were 3.0%higher in July than a year ago,but 0.5%lower compared to June(Chart 2).Changes in producer prices(costs)feed through to retail prices with a lag of between seven and twelve months lag clearly shown in Chart 2.This delay is due to the nature of fixed-term contracts used by manufacturers when buying raw materials,while some also use futures contracts traded on commodity exchanges.Food inflation will continue to slow.We think it will reach single-digit levels early next year.Manufacturers now see signs that cost inflation is subsiding after almost three years of increases in all elements of the production process,from ingredients and labour to logistics,transportation,packaging and energy.Global agricultural commodity and energy prices have been falling,but remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels.Strong wage pressures persist,as labour shortages and the cost-of-living crisis continue.For the near term,there are two risks to inflation.The collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative will likely push up prices of vegetables oils,wheat and maize,with July global vegetable oil prices already 12%higher from June.While the heat wave in Southern Europe and wet weather in the UK could impact global crop production.At the same time,retail food sales,in volume terms,declined by about 4%in the year to May,as households saw their real incomes falling for 18 months.In Q2,the non-alcoholic drink saw robust growth,while the other subsectors stagnated or contracted(Chart 3).Quarter on quarter,some subsectors:dairy,grain mill and starches or other food products,have seen four consecutive quarters of contractions.This is troubling,as history shows that a series of negative shocks can result in poor economic performance.Global agricultural commodity prices more than doubled in 2008,real household incomes dropped sharply following the financial crisis,and a second agricultural commodity shock followed in 2012.As a result,the food and drink manufacturing shrank by 7.9%in 2010,by 5.1%in 2011 and by 2.4%in 2012.This suggests current conditions of intense cost pressures and lower spend are likely to result in a smaller food and drink sector.Chart 1:Inflation by category,July 2023 Source:ONS Chart 2:Food manufacturers(producers)price inflation and food and drink retail price inflation Source:ONS,Index,Jan 2020=100 Chart 3:Growth by sector,Q2 2023 Q2 2023 on Q1 2023 Q2 2023 on Q2 2022 Food manufacturing 0.0%-2.0%Meat-1.3%0.9%Fish,fruit and vegetables 0.6%-0.8%Oils and fats 0.0%0.0iry -0.8%-5.3%Grain mill and starches-0.8%-5.3kery -0.5%0.0%Other food products 2.3%-3.6%Non-alcoholic drink manufacturing 4.3%6.4%Source:ONS,GVA,chained volume measures.Dairy and grain mill and starches have seen similar rates of growth.11.8.3.7.4.9.9.3.6.3.3.2.6.2 .4!.3.2.3#.1$.4$.6&.7(.4A.5T.5.9%Bread Soft drinks Tea Beef and veal Rice Confectionery Jams Chocolate Potatoes Ice cream Fresh or chilled fish Crisps Mineral or spring waters Fruit and vegetable juices Yoghurt Pork Edible offal Pasta and couscous Frozen vegetables excl potatoes Cheese and curd Eggs Sauces and condiments Olive oil SugarFood and non-alcoholic beverages90100110120130140Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Producer pricesRetail prices Page 3 FDF State of Industry Q2 2023 Businesses experience improved conditions The Q2 FDF net confidence score increased by 18 percentage points,reaching-12%(Chart 4).This is the difference between businesses who perceived business conditions had improved in Q2 from Q1,and those believing conditions had deteriorated.Businesses that felt that conditions remained the same are therefore excluded from this calculation.36lieved conditions remained unchanged.26%of businesses said conditions had improved,up from 14%in Q1.Perceptions of market conditions varied by business sizes.46%of large businesses experienced a deterioration in business conditions compared to Q1,while SMEs fared better with 42eling circumstances had improved(Chart 5).Almost half(47%)of mid-size companies felt conditions remained the same.Looking ahead to Q3,over half(52%)expect business conditions will remain largely the same.However,outlook perceptions vary by business size.91%of large companies expect conditions to remain the same,whereas nearly a third(32%)of mid-size businesses believe conditions will deteriorate(Chart 6).42%of smaller businesses anticipate an improvement.A few potential developments may explain these differences in expectations,including uncertainty and volatility in energy markets.While energy prices have been on a downward trajectory since December,gas prices have been volatile recently,with prices ranging from 53 to 99/thm over the course of June and July.Futures market prices exceed 130/thm for winter of 2024,more than double the pre-pandemic level.Food and drink manufacturing is energy-intensive,so energy costs remain a serious concern.Uncertainty about future ingredient prices may also worry smaller producers more.The termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July has seen prices of vegetable oils(sunflower,rapeseed,palm and soy)rising 12.1%from June.The extended heatwave in Southern Europe has also affected crops of tomatoes and cereals.Renewed cost pressures pose great challenges to food manufacturers.Brexit,the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have already eroded the sectors resilience.Finally,the rapid increase in interest rates over the last 18 months has made borrowing more expensive.Against a backdrop of substantial cost pressures,this has also proven more disadvantageous for SMEs,that typically operate on smaller margins.Chart 4:FDF net confidence score Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 5:Business conditions in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023 by business size Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 6:Expectations about business conditions in Q3 2023 relative to Q2 2023 by business size Source:FDF State of Industry Survey-13%-13%-35%-45%-51%-51%-33%-22%-55%-65%-16%-14%4%-51%-61%-72%-79%-47%-30%-12%0E!%6G!B%0%0%0%Large(500m )Mid-size(26-500m)SME(25m)Significantly deterioratedDeterioratedRemained the sameImprovedSignificantly improved0%0%0%02%B3%9&B%0%0%0%Large(500m )Mid-size(26-500m)SME(25m)Significantly deteriorateDeteriorateRemain the sameImproveSignificantly improve FDF State of Industry Q2 2023 Page 4 The ongoing challenge of labour shortagesIndustrys vacancy rate(the number of vacancies per 100 employees)eased in Q2 to 4.8%from 5.9%in Q1(Chart 7).Labour shortages remain higher than those in wider manufacturing and the UK,of 2.9%and 3.3%respectively.Over half of manufacturers(57%)reported vacancies of 0-5%.By size,two-thirds of large and small businesses had vacancies in the 0-5%range.Mid-sized businesses appear the most impacted by labour shortages,with half reporting vacancy rates of 6-10%.Unfilled vacancies continue to affect a wide range of roles and skills,including:High-skilled workers:project engineers,scientists,IT,sales&marketing.Technical specialists:lab technologists,catering personnel,plant engineering technicians.Production operatives:machine operatives,front line operations,warehouse operatives.In the year to June(Q3 2022 Q2 2023),output lost to the industry due to labour shortages is estimated to be 1.4bn1,while for Q2 alone that loss is assessed at 192m.Labour shortages continue to impede growth,and will have repercussions on business investment and the ability to rebuild margins.Businesses had,on average,a staff turnover of 8.6%over the last 12 months,with just over a third(34%)seeing turnover rates of 5-9%(Chart 8).Mid-size companies experienced a higher rate,with about 35%reporting a turnover exceeding 15%,compared to 50%of SMEs that reported 0-4%.Over the next year,staff turnover is expected to be 7.8%,indicating that businesses assume conditions will remain unchanged.Apprenticeships can help deliver productivity gains by upskilling new and existing employees.Of those businesses that pay the Apprenticeship Levy,45%used over half of their available funds,while 10%didnt spend anything(Chart 9).Greater flexibility within the Levy would help large employers use more of their funds to invest in skills.Of those that do not pay the Levy,which are smaller firms,only a third decided to invest in apprenticeships.Smaller businesses often require more support to identify appropriate Apprenticeship courses(standards),training providers and funding.Chart 7:Vacancy rate in UK,manufacturing and food and drink manufacturing(vacancies per 100 employees)Source:FDF State of Industry Survey and ONS Chart 8:Staff turnover over the past year and expected staff turnover over the next year Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 9:Proportion of businesses spending the Apprenticeship Levy Source:FDF State of Industry Survey 1 This figure was estimated based on excess vacancy rates and per job productivity data.Excess vacancies were calculated as the FDF survey vacancy rate minus 2.5%(thought to be the long-term,natural vacancy rate),and we assumed that food manufacturing and drink manufacturing had similar vacancies.Estimates of productivity per job come from ONS.3.3%2.9%4.8%0%2%4%6%8%UKManufacturingFood and drink manufacturing254(%9%3%3%3&5&%6%6%0%0%0-4%5-9-14-19 -24%-29%Over 30%Staff turnover over the past 12 monthsExpected staff turnover over the next 12 months10%5%None1%-24%-49P%-74u%-990%Page 5 FDF State of Industry Q2 2023 Uncertain energy pricesTotal cost increased by 17.8%over the year to June 2023,whereas selling prices increased by 15.4%.Over a quarter(27%)of manufacturers listed cost rises of 20-25%,while the most common price rise(for 31%of companies)was between 5-10%(Chart 10).By business size,average changes in costs and prices,respectively,are the following:large companies:18.7%and 16.7%,mid-size companies:15.9%and 12.3%,while small companies:13.5%and 8.9%.Price rises are below cost rises.This is due to both the lag with which cost changes filter into final prices,but also to the fact that manufacturers have absorbed some of the cost increases.Its noteworthy that smaller producers seem to have absorbed a larger share of the rising costs.As own-label products command little consumer loyalty,those producers have reduced bargaining power with the supermarkets.On average,its expected that production costs will rise by 3.1%,and prices by 2.7%over the coming year.By business size,average expected changes in production costs and prices,respectively,are:large companies:4.9%and 4.0%,mid-size companies:-1.6%and-0.6%,while small companies:3.2%and-0.5%.Most businesses(43%)expect prices to remain unchanged over the coming year(Chart 11).Energy accounts for a larger share of total costs for many manufacturers than before the war in Ukraine.25%of mid-size businesses and 17%of the smaller ones report energy was over 20%of total operating costs(Chart 12).On average,in Q2 2023,energy amounted to 8.4%of costs,up from 7.4%in Q2 2022,but below 9.7%seen in Q1 2023.Only 33%of manufacturers that are on a fixed energy contract which is up for renewal this autumn think market conditions for energy have improved compared to autumn 2022.While 48lieve they have remained the same and 10%think they have worsened.This,alongside recent volatility in energy markets and futures market pricing,suggests the cost of energy will remain a significant concern for many in the coming months.Chart 10:Changes in total production costs and average selling price over the year to June 2023 Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 11:Expected changes in total production costs and average selling price over the next 12 months Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 12:Energy as a percentage of operating cost base by business size Source:FDF State of Industry Survey 5$%6 1%No change0.1%to 5%5.1 to 10.1%to 15.1%to 20 .1%to 25%Total production costsAverage selling price609%0%9%0C%0%3%-10.1%to-20%-0.1%to-10%No change0.1%to 5%5.1 to 10.1%to 15%Total production costsAverage selling price40%3 D3%6%0%0%6%0%Large(500m )Mid-size(26-500m)SME(25m)Less than 5%5-9-19 -290-39F State of Industry Q2 2023 Page 6 Manufacturers aim to adapt supply chainsInnovation remains the top focus for 54%of manufacturers(Chart 13).There is also a strong focus on adapting supply chains and restructuring operations for 41%of producers.The drive to boost energy efficiency fell out of the top three priorities for the first time since Q2 2022.This reflects that most manufacturers undertook significant changes to make their processes more energy-efficient and theres a limit to how much can be achieved in a short time span.Smaller businesses(70%)are focused on growing sales internationally,while just under a third(30%)of larger businesses are focused on developing healthy new products.Nearly a half(47%)of mid-size companies are prioritising adapting/simplifying their supply chains.Manufacturers remain committed to growth,with almost half(49%)planning to increase their capital investment expenditure in the next 12 months and only 15%expecting a fall(Chart 14).By size,there are stark differences.50%of large manufactures plan to increase investment while the other 50%will maintain it at current levels.While half of SMEs(50%)also plan to increase capital expenditure,the other half plans to cut investment.Smaller businesses are finding it more difficult to access finance and are harder hit by ongoing cost pressures.More than a third(37%)of businesses report that their output has decreased over the year to June 2023,while 42%have increased production(Chart 15).Nearly two-thirds(64%)of manufacturers are optimistic and believe theyll grow their business over the next year.Only 11%think that they will see a reduction.Any foregone investment will inhibit growth.With high borrowing costs and high labour vacancies,significant challenges will persist,but it is encouraging that producers recognise the need to invest to grow.In terms of additional regulations that can further increase costs,78%of the UKs biggest suppliers believe the governments plans to extend not for EU product labelling on a UK-wide basis is not necessary to ensure the continued supply of food from the Great Britain to Northern Ireland,while a large share of the remainder arent sure.New arrangements to supply Northern Ireland enter into force in October.37%of businesses remain undecided over which routes they will use,while others intend to use multiple options.37%will use the green lane,26%the red lane and 41%will move goods indirectly via the Republic of Ireland and/or GB retailer hubs.Chart 13:Top three growth priorities Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 14:Expectations of planned capital investment expenditure changes over the next 12 months?Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 15:Output changes in the year to June 2023 and expected output changes in the next 12 months Source:FDF State of Industry Survey 13&133AATveloping healthier productsOtherAutomation to address labour shortagesGrowing sales to foreign marketsBecoming more energy efficientDeveloping new manufacturing processesAdapting and/or simplifying your supplychainsRestructuring operations to maintaincompetitivenessDeveloping new products(includingpackaging)8A6%0%Increase significantlyIncreaseStay the sameFallFall significantly57!)%8%5Y$%0%Increase(d)significantlyIncrease(d)No changeDecrease(d)Decrease(d)significantlyOutputExpected output Page 7 FDF State of Industry Q2 2023 Who responded?Manufacturers responding to our Q2 survey represented 14%of the industry by turnover.There was a good representation of the industry,with companies from all turnover bands,all employment sizes and from a wide range of industry sub-sectors.37%of the businesses surveyed are large employers with more than 250 employees,while 7%are micro-businesses with fewer than 10 employees(Chart 16).By turnover,a quarter(21%)are small businesses with a turnover of 5m or less,while 12%are businesses with a turnover in excess of 1bn(Chart 17).Businesses also represented a wide variety of sectors(Chart 18).Over a third(36%)operate in the bakery goods sector.The second best-represented sectors were soft drinks and ingredients,with 18ch.Nearly three quarters(71%)operate in England,while 24%manufacture in Scotland and 11%have production facilities located in Wales.Chart 16:Respondents by employment size Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 17:Respondents by turnover Source:FDF State of Industry Survey Chart 18:Respondents by sub-sector Source:FDF State of Industry Survey 57!%7%0 employees50-249 employees10-49 employees0-9 employees12&8n 501m-1bn101-500m51-100m0-50m2%4%4%7%7%7%76%Fish and seafoodFruit and vegetablesPet foodAnimal feedsDairyHot beverages/teaReady mealsGrains/starchesSeasonings and spicesPreserves/chutneys/saucesOtherConfectioneryIngredientsSoft drinksBakery goods Page 8 FDF State of Industry Q2 2023 About the FDF The FDF is a powerful voice for the UKs vibrant,resilient and diverse food and drink manufacturing industry.For over 100 years,we have successfully contributed to policy making and legislative development,championing our members views large and small on the critical issues of the day.We bring together business,government and stakeholders to ensure our manufacturers have the right conditions to grow,invest and employ,while continuing to produce high quality,nutritious and affordable food and drink.With more than 1,000 members from the most recognisable global brands to the most innovative start-ups we represent the largest manufacturing sector in the country.Food and Drink Federation 10 Bloomsbury Way London WC1A 2SL Tel:020 7836 2460 Email:generalenquiriesfdf.org.uk Web:fdf.org.uk Twitter:Foodanddrinkfed

2023-08-28 8页 5星级

食品饮料行业专题：白酒反向红包该如何破局-230813（18页）.pdf

本报告版权属于安信证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。1 20232023 年年 0808 月月 1313 日日 食品饮料食品饮料 行业专题行业专题 专题专题：白酒白酒反向反向红包红包该该如何.

2023-08-15 18页 5星级

勤策消费研究：食品饮料行业2023年中报业绩前瞻-饮料篇（29页）.pdf

食品饮料行业2023年中报业绩前瞻饮料篇食品饮料行业2023年中报业绩前瞻饮料篇3饮料行业上半年整体表现为：软饮料白酒啤酒乳品饮料行业代表企业饮料行业代表企业23H1预计业绩增速情况预计业绩增速情况-.

2023-08-14 29页 5星级

食品饮料行业研究方法论-230804（42页）.pdf

颜慧菁（食品饮料行业首席分析师）颜慧菁（食品饮料行业首席分析师）SAC号码：号码：S0850520020001 2023年年08月月04日日 食品饮料行业研究方法论食品饮料行业研究方法论 证券研究报.

2023-08-04 42页 5星级

爱设计：2023食品饮料内容中台白皮书（40页）.pdf

2023品饮料业内容中台书联合发布：copyright2023爱设计内容中台报告说明 REPORT DESCRIPTION【行业范围】时间周期：2022年6月-2023年6月（特殊说明除外）。调研对象.

2023-07-27 40页 5星级

知家DTC：2023食品饮料行业DTC营销白皮书（56页）.pdf

食品饮料行业DTC营销白皮书知家DTC研究院出品2023年是增量博弈、存量维系的时代，聆听整个市场的声音，我们在无休止的探讨究竟是消费升级还是消费降级，尽管我们看到2023年初整个消费市场恢复态势较好.

2023-07-06 56页 5星级

食品饮料中期行业策略报告：取势明道结构复苏-230703（54页）.pdf

分析师分析师联系人联系人王泽华王泽华登记编号：S1220523060002薛涵薛涵登记编号：S1220523060005孙思茹孙思茹取势明道，结构复苏取势明道，结构复苏食 品 饮 料 团 队食 品 饮.

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