投资市场报告-PDF版

安永：气候变化风险压力测试助力中国保险业绿色可持续发展（19页）.pdf

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2022-03-30 19页 5星级

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众安：保险碳中和系列报告之二-低碳时代的绿色保险产品（49页）.pdf

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NIFD季报NIFD季报保险业运行保险业运行2022 年 3 月NIFD季报是国家金融与发展实验室主要的集体研究成果之一，旨在定期、系统、全面跟踪全球金融市场、人民币汇率、国内宏观经济、中国宏观金融、.

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麦肯锡：全球保险业报告（36页）.pdf

February 2022Creating value, finding focus: Global Insurance Report 2022This report is a collaborati.

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养老产业专题研究（五） 以邻为鉴，第三支柱个人商业养老险大有可为 行业深度报告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 行业.

2022-01-27 19页 5星级

保险行业“险中取胜”行业系列深度报告之二：养老保障体系建设加速养老保险产品或迎新增量-20220124（50页）.pdf

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2022-01-25 50页 5星级

保险行业偿二代二期工程深度解读：偿二代二期落地花开三支柱监管保驾护航-220118（20页）.pdf

有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 保险行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 从偿一代到偿二代二期，.

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震荡复苏：2022/23 年全球经济和保险市场展望2021年第5期02 摘要03 主要观点06 宏观经济环境和展望21 2022/23年保险市场 展望36 其他经济与行业情景40 附录瑞士再保险 s.

2022-01-17 42页 5星级

瑞士再保险（Swiss Re Institute）：2022-2023 年全球经济和保险市场展望（英文版）（42页）.pdf

我们确定了三个将塑造世界长期发展道路的结构性趋势经济。这些是“三个 D”；分歧、数字化和脱碳。我们担心国家内部和国家之间在经济方面日益分化恢复。财富、收入和社会经济机会。这些差异使复苏变得脆弱。要克服.

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2022-01-17 30页 5星级

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请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2022.01.04 从严资本认定、 优化资本结构， 大型险企更受益从严资本认定、 优化资本结构， 大型险企更受益 偿二代二期工程偿二.

2022-01-06 23页 5星级

保险行业：养老保险机构发展新规发布产险保费持续改善-211227（17页）.pdf

证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明 行业行业动态动态报告报告保险保险行业行业 2021 年年 12 月月 27 日日 养老保险机构发展新规发布养老保险机构发展新规发布，产.

2021-12-30 17页 5星级

保险行业养老产业专题研究（三）：守正出奇轻资产服务与重资产社区双轨并行-211222（26页）.pdf

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2021-12-23 26页 5星级

阿里巴巴集团：环保行业2021阿里巴巴碳中和行动报告（41页）.pdf

0:a Alibaba Group 2021 阿里巴巴集团 11血在主叫:.:,fl；茸茸函剧亏 ALIBABA GROUP CARBON NEUTRALITY ACTION REPORT 尺寸、 。.

2021-12-22 41页 5星级

中国保险行业协会：保险行业多元化纠纷解决机制研究报告（147页）.pdf

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2021-12-21 147页 5星级

议会预算监督机构（PBO）：2021抵押贷款保险降低保费建议财务分析报告（英文版）（13页）.pdf

December 17, 2021FISCAL ANALYSIS OF PROPOSEDPREMIUM REDUCTION FORMORTGAGE INSURANCEPowered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) supports Parliament by providing economic and financial analysis for the purposes of raising the quality of parliamentary debate and promoting greater budget transparency and accountability. This note provides fiscal analysis of the Governments proposal to reduce mortgage insurance premiums collected by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Lead Analysts: Rgine Clophat, Analyst Mark Creighton, Analyst Contributors: Louis Perrault, Advisor-Analyst This report was prepared under the direction of: Jason Jaques, Director General Nancy Beauchamp, Marie-Eve Hamel Laberge and Rmy Vanherweghem assisted with the preparation of the report for publication. For further information, please contact pbo-dpbparl.gc.ca Yves Giroux Parliamentary Budget Officer RP-2122-025-S_e Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Ottawa, Canada, 2021 Table of Contents Executive Summary 4 1. Introduction 6 2. Parameters and Assumptions 7 2.1. Parameters 7 2.2. Assumptions 7 3. Financial analysis 9 3.1. Earned fees and premiums 9 3.2. Investment income 9 4. Results 10 4.1. Sensitivity Analysis 11 Notes 13 Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 4 Executive Summary On September 1, 2021, the Liberal Party unveiled its election platform in which it proposed to reduce the monthly cost of mortgage payments. Parliamentarians have expressed interest in such a measure. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) conducted a fiscal analysis of the proposal and estimated the cost of the measure. In concrete terms, the measure has two components: A 25% reduction in the mortgage insurance premium required by the Canadian Housing Corporation (hereafter CMHC); and An increase in the insured mortgage cut-off from $1 million to $1.25 million (indexed to inflation). PBO projects that a 25% decrease in the mortgage insurance premium will result in a net cost of $1,366 million between fiscal years 2022-2023 and 2026-2027. Impact of Mortgage Insurance Premium Decrease on CMHCs Financials Total Cost ($ millions) 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 Total Earned Fees and Premiums 85 166 242 307 359 1,159 Investment Income 13 25 40 56 73 207 Total 98 191 282 363 432 1,366 Source: PBO calculations. Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures represented in nominal (then-year) dollars. Positive numbers subtract from the budgetary balance, negative numbers contribute to the budget balance. PBO also estimates that Canadian households will save an average of $5,341 in 2022-2023, increasing to $5,863 for households with a secured mortgage in 2026-2027. This estimate is based on a static approach that assumes that the rates charged by other participants in the mortgage insurance market will reflect their instantaneous response to the proposed measure. CMHCs market share will therefore remain unchanged. Summary Table S-1 Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 5 Decrease in the Average Mortgage Insurance Premium per Household Impacted Savings ($) 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 Average savings per household 5,341 5,476 5,604 5,736 5,863 Source: PBO calculations. Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures represented in nominal (then-year) dollars.Summary Table S-2 Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 6 1. Introduction Canadian households wishing to purchase a home can provide a down payment of less than 20% of the value of their home through CMHCs mortgage insurance program. The financial institution granting the mortgage must obtain mortgage loan insurance from CMHC. In return, lenders assume the cost of the insurance by paying a premium that depends on the initial down payment and the amount of the loan. Currently, households can expect to pay between 0.60% and 4.00%, depending on a loan-to-value ratio of between 0-65% and 90-95%. Homes costing $1 million or more are not eligible for the current program. In its election platform, the Liberal Party states that Canadian families pay an average of $30,000 in premiums over the life of their mortgage. In an effort to ease this financial burden, the party is proposing a 25% reduction in the mortgage insurance premium charged by CMHC. In addition, it commits to increasing the insured mortgage cut-off from $1 million to $1.25 million. PBO has produced a cost estimate of these proposals. In this regard, PBO requested and received information from CMHC on its mortgage insurance activities.1 Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 7 2. Parameters and Assumptions PBO uses the parameters of the proposed change as well as those used by CMHC in its financial modeling. Several assumptions were also required to estimate the cost of the policy change. 2.1. Parameters In its 2021 election platform, the Liberal Party proposes two changes to CMHCs mortgage insurance program: a 25% reduction in the mortgage insurance premium required by CMHC; and an increase in the insured mortgage cut-off to $1.25 million. Since fees and premiums are collected over time, gains are realized over time according to a chart provided to PBO by CMHC. It shows the percentage of fees and premiums earned annually by the Crown corporation over the maximum 25-year term of a mortgage. These rates are used as parameters for financial modeling. 2.2. Assumptions A number of assumptions are required to estimate the cost of the proposed changes. To start, the changes are not expected to significantly affect the number of homes insured by CMHC. This is because demand for mortgage insurance is inelastic with respect to price, so consumers will not purchase more mortgage insurance because of lower premiums. In this sense, there will be little increase in demand as a result of a decrease in price. Homes with a market value of $1 million or more represent a small fraction of the Crown corporations mortgage portfolio. Although the insured mortgage cut-off will be $1.25 million, the increase in the volume of homes insured in this niche of the housing market is not expected to be substantial. CMHCs historical data show that homes worth $800 K or more currently represent 0.6% of its insured mortgage portfolio. Furthermore, CMHCs market share is expected to remain steady. We assume that other market participants will respond immediately to the proposed measure by adjusting their own mortgage insurance premium rate. Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 8 The historical decomposition of the number of homes in the various loan-to-value categories is a good predictor of the future decomposition. This is a necessary working assumption to model the rate that CMHC will charge to insure future mortgages. PBO assumes that the Crown corporation will incur the same claim costs, resulting in no impact by the proposed changes. This assumes no behavioural response from the federal guarantor. As for investment income, it is modeled on CMHCs past performance, i.e., its historical investment returns. This assumes that these are good predictors of future returns. Finally, PBO assumes that the proposed changes will take effect on April 1, 2022. Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 9 3. Financial analysis Decreasing the mortgage insurance premium that CMHC charges will impact the Governments finances in two ways. It will result in a decrease in the earned premiums and fees and a decrease in investment income. When combined these components provide an estimate of the financial cost to the Government of decreasing the mortgage insurance premium rate that CMHC charges. To determine the cost of the policy PBO estimated these components both before and after incorporating the policy change. 3.1. Earned fees and premiums CMHC charges fees and premiums to provide mortgage insurance. The magnitude of the fees is determined by the sale price of the home, and what percentage of the sale price is made as a down payment. The percent of the mortgage remaining after the down payment is its “Loan-to-Value” (LTV) and determines what premium CMHC will charge to insure it. The greater the LTV the higher the premium that will be charged. To estimate the decline in fees and premiums that results following the policy change, PBO constructed a representative mortgage and its associated premiums.2 The number of homes that CMHC will insure in each year was then estimated. The total value of the premiums was obtained by multiplying the representative mortgages premium by the number of homes that CMHC will insure. These premiums were then realized by CMHC over the following years according to historic trends in the rate of realization.3 3.2. Investment income CMHC also receives revenue from investing the fees and premiums that it earns. To estimate the impact of the policy PBO assumed that the returns on investment would remain the same, but that the flow of new capital to invest would be impacted by the decrease in fees and premiums that the policy would prompt. Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 10 4. Results PBO estimates that a 25% decrease in the mortgage insurance premiums charged by CMHC will cost the Government $1,366 million over 5 years. PBO also estimates that the average savings per household requiring mortgage insurance will be a one-time savings of $5,341 for mortgages insured in 2022-2023, increasing to a one-time savings of $5,863 in 2026-2027. Table 4-1 presents how the decrease in premiums is expected to effect CMHCs financial position and the resultant impact on the Governments finances. The year-over-year increase in costs is driven by two factors. The first is that CMHC will be collecting a lower amount of fees each year as a result of lower mortgage insurance premiums on each transaction. This translates to fewer resources being available for investment, resulting in a decrease in total returns. The second factor is that CMHC does not realize mortgage insurance premiums all at once, but rather over the course of several years. As time passes, the mortgages insured after the policy change reduces premiums will represent a greater portion of CMHCs portfolio of mortgages, further decreasing their revenues until these new mortgages comprise their entire portfolio. Impact of Mortgage Insurance Premium Decrease on CMHCs Financials Total Cost ($ millions) 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 Total Earned Fees and Premiums 85 166 242 307 359 1,159 Investment Income 13 25 40 56 73 207 Total 98 191 282 363 432 1,366 Source: PBO calculations Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures represented in nominal (then-year) dollars. Positive numbers subtract from the budgetary balance, negative numbers contribute to the budget balance. Table 4-2 presents the average household savings that are anticipated to occur after the policy change is implemented.4 The increase over time is driven by expected increases in home prices resulting in larger mortgages, which in turn translates to greater savings relative to the current set of mortgage insurance premiums. Table 4-1 Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 11 Decrease in the Average Mortgage Insurance Premium per Household Impacted Savings ($) 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 Average Savings per Household 5,341 5,476 5,604 5,736 5,863 Source: PBO calculations Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures represented in nominal (then-year) dollars. 4.1. Sensitivity Analysis PBO conducted sensitivity analysis to determine under what conditions the policy change could be revenue neutral. Relative to a baseline model, CMHC would need to insure 37.62% more homes or increase its market share by 11.51% relative to what CMHC is currently predicting to ensure that the policy change would be revenue neutral over a 5-year period.5 Table 4-3 provides a breakdown of the yearly changes in CMHCs profits when each of these different scenarios are considered. Any household savings that would result from this policy change would not be impacted in either of these scenarios. Impact of Mortgage Insurance Premium Decrease on CMHCs Financials Total Cost ($ millions) 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 Total Total after a 37.62% increase in homes insured 0 -4 -4 3 6 0 Total after a 11.51% increase in CMHCs market share -5 -11 -8 5 18 0 Source: PBO calculations Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Figures represented in nominal (then-year) dollars. Positive numbers subtract from the budgetary balance, negative numbers contribute to the budget balance. PBO does not anticipate that CMHC will be able to achieve a 37.62% increase in the number of homes that it insures after the policy change. This is due to demand for mortgage insurance being inelastic with respect to price as well as the increase in the maximum amount insurable not being expected to have a significant effect. As noted earlier mortgages with a value exceeding $800 K represent only 0.6% of CMHCs portfolio of insured mortgages. Both the decrease in price and the increase in the maximum sale price that can be insured places upward pressure on the number of homes that CMHC will insure relative to the status quo. However, it is not anticipated that this will Table 4-2 Table 4-3 Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 12 be sufficient to obtain the 37.62% increase necessary to obtain revenue neutrality.6 PBO does not expect that CMHC will be able to capture an additional 11.51% of the mortgage insurance market after the policy change goes into effect. When CMHC has changed its rates in the past private mortgage insurance providers have quicky responded such that no significant change in market share occurred. Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance 13 Notes 1. “Information Request - IR0610.” Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. https:/www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/information-requests-demandes-information?ir=IR0610 2. The representative mortgage was constructed using estimates of average home sale price and a weighted average of the down payments and resulting LTVs which were calculated using historic information provided by CMHC. 3. CMHC operates on an accrual basis. This means that they do not immediately recognize the full value of the transaction. They instead recognize the transaction over its economic lifespan, that is the time it will be an asset or liability on CMHCs balance sheet. In this case the transaction is recognized over the amortization period of the mortgage insurance contract. The rate at which these payments are recognized was estimated using information provided by CMHC. 4. It is important to note that these savings are not recurrent, but rather represent one-time average savings for new mortgages insured in that year. 5. CMHC provided a forecast of its expected market share in future years in its response to PBOs information request. PBO viewed this forecast as being credible and used it in subsequent analysis. 6. A 37.62% increase exceeds the largest year-over-year percentage change, both in positive or negative terms, that CMHC has realized in the historical data to which PBO has access.

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