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1、Photo by Sarah Adam Kearney,DubaiUncharted territoryGlobal Economic Outlook 20252027:1H 2025Kearney ForesightGlobal Business Policy CouncilThe Global Business Policy Council,part of the Kearney Foresight network,is a leading voice on business-environment research and policy.Since its first CEO Retre

2、at in 1992,the Council has provided strategic foresight services for the worlds top executives and government officials.Through public-facing thought leadership,exclusive global forums,and advisory services,the Council helps decipher complex geopolitical,economic,social,and technological shifts,crea

3、ting clarity for CEOs and government leaders around key developments and trends for immediate impact and lasting advantage.Our latest scenario analysis suggests unprecedently high levels of uncertainty and growing economic fragmentation,creating simultaneous challenges and opportunities for business

4、es.ForewordThe opening months of 2025 have been defined by extraordinarily high levels of volatility transforming the global economic outlook.Baseline projections earlier in the year suggested falling inflation and stabilizing global growth,but the potential now for wildcard eventsfrom rising protec

5、tionism and tariff proliferation to step-change advances in AI and other emerging technologiesall suggest further global economic disruption.As Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,chief economist of the International Monetary Fund,noted in April,“The surge in policy uncertainty is a major driver of the econom

6、ic outlook.If sustained,the increase in trade tensions and uncertainty will slow global growth significantly.”As we assess the outlook for the next three years,the conclusion is inescapable:we are now entering uncharted territory.As the global economy moves beyond the post-pandemic period,the forese