世界白银协会：2024白银市场趋势报告：决定银价的因素分析（中译版）（25页）.pdf

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1、MarketTrendReportFactorsthatDeterminetheSilverPriceFebruary,2024ConductedBy:PreciousMetalsInsights 1TableofContents1.IntroducDon3.2.NominalandRealPrices6.3.Supply/DemandFactors7.3.1.MineProducDon7.3.2.ScrapRecycling8.3.3.FabricaDonDemand9.3.4.DeficitsandSurpluses10.3.5.SupplyfromBullionStocks12.1.In

2、vestment13.2.OfficialSector15.4.ExogenousFactors17.1.GoldPrice17.2.CopperPrice19.3.CommodityPrices20.4.ExchangeRates21.5.InflaDon22.6.InterestRates23.7.StockPrices25.21.IntroducDonOverthelasttwodecades,thedailysilverprice(basistheLondonfix)hasrisenfromalowof$5.50in2004toahighof$48.70in2011beforeslid

3、ingtoabearmarkettroughfiveyearslaterof$13.58.Sincethen,withtheexcepDonofabriefCOVID-relatedspikedownwards,silverhastendedtorecoverstronglyoverthelastthreeyears,withseveralralliesdrivingthepriceintotheupper$20s.ThisMarketTrendReportseekstoidenDfyandexplainthefactorsbehindtheriseandfallinthesilverpric

4、eoverrecentdecades.First,itassessessilverssupply/demandfundamentalstoascertaintowhatextentchangesinthesemayhaveaffectedtheprice.Second,itlooksatvariousexogenousfactorsthatcouldhavebeenresponsibleformovementsinthesilverprice.AnanalysisofthehistoricaldataandcontemporaryreportsofwhatmarketparDcipantsan

5、dobserversbelievedwasattheDmedrivingpricesleadstosomekeyconclusionsonsilverpricedeterminaDon.ThisReportconcludesthatthereisnomagicformulaorcombinaDonoffactorsthatconsistentlyandaccuratelyexplainseithertheleveloforchangeinthesilverprice.WhilethesilverpriceisnotarandomwalkneitherisitsfuturepathenDrely

6、predictablebasedonpasttrends.ThisobservaDonparDcularlyappliestoexogenousfactors,someofwhichmightbethoughttohaveastableandenDrelypredictableimpactonthepriceofsilver.InpracDce,whileoneoracombinaDonoftheseexogenousfactors,suchasexchangeratesorinterestrates,mayforaperiodbeadominantdriver,evenintheshortr