ICIS：2024年全球液化天然气(LNG)市场展望报告：延续现状？（英文版）（29页）.pdf

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1、ICIS LNG Outlook 2024:More of the same?Alex Siow,Lead Asia Gas AnalystChristopher Rene,Europe Gas Analyst5 March 2024Agenda01020304Sub$10/mmbtu price:How did we get hereICIS mid-term LNG balance:How did we compare with ShellFID+non-FID LNG supply2024 Supply&Demand outlookGas crisis to global oversup

2、ply?02040608010020202021202220232024$/MMBtuAsia spot(ICIS EAX)ICIS BrentICIS TTFHenry HubMarkets tighten in 2021 winter,followed by the Ukraine war a few months laterGas crisis over?Asia spot(ICIS EAX)went below$2/MMBtu.Global LNG is set for oversupply before 2030-10001002003004005006007002020202120

3、2220232024202520262027202820292030Million tonnesGlobal LNG Supply&Demand estimatesGapICIS DemandICIS Supply(FID)Shell demandCurrent non-FID supply projects will further exacerbate oversupply in 2027-29 period0102030405060708090202420252026202720282029mtpaAnnual new LNG supply:FID vs non-FIDFIDno FID

4、Major LNG start-ups in the coming 3 yearsArctic LNG 26.6mT?Feb2024LNG Canada14mTFeb2025Golden Pass15.6mTApr2025Fast Altamira1.4mTApr2024TortueLNG2.5mT Oct2024Plaquemines13.3mTQ12025CorpusChristi9.45mTSep2025TangoFLNG2 2.4mTDec2025Fast P21.4mTQ22026PlutoT25mTJune2026Costa Azul3.25mTOct2025Qatar NFE32

5、mTMar2026NLNGT77mTQ12026Jan2024Tango FLNG0.6mTLNG supply by countryKey drivers in Asian countriesAn under-supplied 2024 with slight relief in 2025Latent demand(mostly from Asia)can be realised this year given the sub-$10/mmbtuprice environmentOnly 20mT of new LNG will be online this year.In 2023,onl

6、y 13mT was brought onstream.Thus,ICIS view of 2024 market to be more of the same with 2023 from a fundamental perspective.The key determinant to spot price level will be the pace of demand response;ie.how quickly price-sensitive buyers pick-up market slack.2024-15mT2025-7mTWill Europe be staging a d