安联研究：2024-2025年经济中期展望报告-“ 奥运更开放” 经济市场又如何？（英文版）（58页）.pdf

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1、Mid-year Economic Outlook 2024-25:Games wide open?Rtroviseur extrieur noir montrant la route photo Photo Islande Gratuite sur Unslash Allianz 2024Film Industry Clapper Board Photograph by Panoramic Images-Fine Art AmericaAllianz ResearchEnd of Q2 2024 updated economic and capital markets outlook 25

2、June 2024 Allianz 2024GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024-2025Mid-year Economic Outlook 2024-25:Games wide open?1Ready,steady,slow.Global growth bottomed-out in H1,but the global manufacturing sector is still in excess supply,with low demand in the Eurozone in particular.Recession risks persist in the Euro

3、zone and are rising in the US as the labor market is softening.Overall,we expect global GDP growth at+2.8%in 2024-25,with growth slowing to+1.7%in the US and reaching potential in the Eurozone at+1.4%in 2025.China will continue to manage its growth slowdown(+4.3%in 2025).2Pushing limits,chasing gold

4、?Inflation is moderating,albeit at a slower pace,notably in the US as services inflation remains sticky,delaying the first Fed cut to December.The ECB will cut once more in September but then wait for the FED before continuing the easing cycle in 2025.Central banks in emerging markets remain in caut

5、ious easing mode as the Fed delay halts optimism.3No risk,no fun?Risks remain tilted to the downside given heightened uncertainty in a Super-Election Year.Our downside scenario(fiscal slippage&rising geopolitical risks)would mean-1.5pp lower global growth and+1pp higher inflation,which should keep i

6、nterest rates higher for longer.4Train hard,win big.The revival of the investment cycle is delayed to early 2025,then supported by the easing of financial and monetary conditions,but companies will remain in wait-and-see mode for major investment decisions,given the rise in(geo)political uncertainty