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1、Automotive&Assembly PracticeChinas heavy-duty truck industry:The road aheadPremiumization,electrification,autonomous driving,and a value pool shift to solutions and services will shape the future of heavy-duty trucks in China.August 2023 sinology/Getty ImagesThis article is a collaborative effort by

2、 Saral Chauhan,Thomas(Yinliang)Fang,Peng Jiang,Alexander Will,Tony(Guansong)Zhou,and Allen(Xiaolei)Zhuang,representing views from McKinseys Automotive&Assembly Practice.Over the past decade,China has experienced an infrastructure boom and mushrooming demand for road transportation,leading to rapid g

3、rowth of the heavy-duty-truck(HDT)market.Sales of HDTs in China grew from 600,000 vehicles in 2015 to a peak of 1.6 million in 2020.Then,in 2022,the HDT market in China went into a slump;a regional economic slowdown,COVID-19 lockdowns,and the fact that many customers prepurchased HDTs in 2020 and 20

4、21 resulted in a sales volume of only 700,000 vehicles in 2022(Exhibit 1).1This slump is unlikely to be permanent.Given the size and resilience of the countrys economy,we expect the Chinese HDT industry to rebound and retain a significant and stable commercial base.1 IHS Markit data on medium and he

5、avy commercial-vehicle industry sales in China,201022,accessed March 28,2023.2 Ibid.That said,the rapid development of the past decade will be difficult to replicate.As of 2022,the top five participants in Chinas HDT market held more than 80 percent of the marketand the industry is becoming more con

6、centrated.2 As demand normalizes after the boom,the established leaders will likely maintain their positions at the top of the market,but competitors from other geographies and adjacent sectorsincluding,for example,OEMs that formerly specialized in electric passenger vehiclesare likely to continue t